Thursday, November 1, 2018

Fantasy Football/NFL Week 9 Preview

The past few days have featured quite a bit of action around the National Football League. First, there was the dysfunctional situation in Cleveland ("dysfunctional" and "Cleveland" go together like peanut butter and chocolate). After the Browns' Week 7 loss to Tampa Bay, head coach Hue Jackson alluded to possibly taking the offensive playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Todd Haley. He later backtracked from that statement, but it was clear tension existed between him and Haley. It seemed as if Haley had won the power struggle when Jackson was fired Monday morning, but the Haley was fired a few hours later. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was named interim head coach and running backs coach Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator. GM John Dorsey and company will likely conduct an extensive search for the next head coach, one that will include several NFL coordinators, as well as college coaches, such as Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley (has a connection to Baker Mayfield and is apparently well-liked in NFL circles) and Iowa State's Matt Campbell (is from Ohio and is said to be well-liked by Dorsey). it looks as if the Browns may have finally found their franchise coordinator. Now they need to find the right person to coach him.

While Monday was mostly dominated by the Browns and their coaching moves, Tuesday was littered with playoff contenders making player moves. The NFL Trade Deadline occurred at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, and there were a few high-profile moves. Demaryius Thomas was traded from Denver to Houston for a fourth-round pick (and a swap of seventh-round picks). Deshaun Watson has returned to form, but he lost Will Fuller to a torn ACL last week. So the Texans are hoping Thomas can make up for the loss of Fuller (though he's a much different receiver). The person this helps the most is Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton, The impressive rookie is now the clear number two in Denver behind Emmanuel Sanders. He should be picked up in all fantasy leagues if he's not already rostered.

Demaryius Thomas wasn't the only big-time receiver on the move Tuesday. Lions receiver Golden Tate, who has been sweating out trade rumors, was indeed traded by Detroit to Philadelphia in exchange for a third-round draft pick. Tate, who is in a contract year, should help out Carson Wentz and the Super Bowl champs. Fantasy-wise, Lion receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. should see an increase in targets.

The other high-profile offensive player to be traded Tuesday was Packers running back Ty Montgomery, who had fallen out of favor in Green Bay after defying orders and taking a kickoff return out of the endzone late in Sunday's game against the Rams, only to fumble it and coast Aaron Rodgers and company a chance at a game-winning drive. He was sent to the Ravens for a seventh-round pick.

The other two big trades on Tuesday were on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams bolstered their already-insane defense by trading for edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., whom the Jaguars gave them in exchange for a third-rounder and a fifth-rounder. The former third overall pick has been a disappointment in Jacksonville, but he's still young and talented.

The final trade of the day occurred between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins. The Packers traded talented young safety HA-HA... sorry, I just remembered a joke I had heard earlier. Where was I... ah, yes, the Packers traded former first-round pick HA-HA... I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it was a really funny joke... anyway, the Packers traded star safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to Washington for a fourth-round pick. This is a good get for the Redskins, who will pair Clinton-Dix with D.J. Swearinger to create a formidable pair in the defensive backfield.

After a week filled with major moves, some potentially major implications could be seen in fantasy. We'll find out.

Image result for Courtland sutton
New Broncos #2 receiver Courtland Sutton


Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings

Quarterback

1. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs (@ CLE) - You're starting Patty regardless of the matchup, and this week's matchup is against a reeling Browns team.

2. Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. TB) - Cam was probably Superman for Halloween, and he will probably play like Superman on Sunday against the league's second-worst pass defense.

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (@ NE) - In a battle of all-time great quarterbacks, A-Rodg is the better one (and has the better matchup).

4. Jared Goff, Rams (@ NO) - I think this has the makings of a high-scoring affair, which is good for Goff, who faces New Orleans' suspect pass defense.

5. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs. GB) - This also has the makings of a barn-burner, which means Touchdown Tommy should find the endzone, which he didn't do last week.

6. Drew Brees, Saints (vs. LAR) - The Rams defense isn't the greatest matchup, but like I said, I think this will be a game with a lot of points.

7. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (vs. DET) - The Lions gave up 48 points to the ferocious lowly Jets last week, so Captain Kirk should have a pretty good day.

8. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. LAC) - DangeRuss has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last three games, and that trend could continue against the average Chargers defense.

9. Matt Ryan, Falcons (@ WAS) - Matty Ice doesn't draw the easiest matchup in the world, but the high-volume passer should be able to put up good numbers.

10. Deshaun Watson, Texans (@ DEN) - He probably won't throw five touchdown passes again (especially against Denver), but in case he does, don't leave him on the bench like I did last week.

11. Matthew Stafford, Lions (@ MIN) - Here's a stat for y'all: Matty Staff has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of his last six games (and exactly two in each of his last five games).

12. Phillip Rivers, Chargers (@ SEA) - Here's another stat: Phil has at least two touchdowns in each of his eight games, going back to last season. However, Seattle's pass defense is tough.

13. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears (@ BUF) - Mitch(ell) has found the endzone a lot recently, but Buffalo, despite being a bad team, sports a good pass defense (statistically).

14. Baker Mayfield, Browns (vs. KC) - How will Baker adjust to the coaching change? I have no idea. But I do know that Kansas City's pass defense is not great.

15. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - FITZ-MAGIC IS BACK!! As always, one must take a cautious with Fitz. I'm being extra cautious this week.

16. Alex Smith, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Game Manager Alex Smith could manage this game pretty well against Atlanta's porous pass defense.

17. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@ BAL) - With Ravens-Steelers, there's always a high possibility of an ugly, low-scoring game.

18. Joe Flacco, Ravens (vs. PIT) - See Roetlisberger, Ben.

19. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - As far as the top-20 rankings go, Dak is in the back (I'm sorry, but I enjoy rhyming).

20. Brock Osweiler, Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - Brocktober isn't over yet. Brock 'n Roll isn't dead. He's still alive in the Brocktagon.



Running Back

1. Todd Gurley II, Rams (@ NO) - If the legendary Patrick Mahomes didn't exist, Gurley would probably be the clear front-runner for NFL MVP.

2. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (@ CLE) - As a Browns fans, I'm used to seeing good running backs tear up the Cleveland defense, and Kareem the Dream is a good great running back.

3. Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs. LAR) - Alvin, who I'm hoping has dressed up as a chipmunk for Halloween at some point, scored by air and by ground last week.

4. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - It's almost the time of year for Salvation Army buckets, which means it's almost Zeke's favorite time of year.

5. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (vs. TB) - The guy whose last name sounds like a drink option on the McDonald's Dollar Menu has a good matchup against the defensively-challenged Bucs.

6. James White, Patriots (vs. GB) - James Whitey Bulger has been killing it in fantasy this season thanks to his productivity running and receiving, and he'll be heavily used again Sunday night.

7. Melvin Gordon III, Chargers (@ SEA) - Gordon sat out L.A.'s before the bye week, and the only reason I have him this low is because he's still a bit banged up.

8. James Connor, Steelers (@ BAL) - The Ravens have a pretty good defense, but J.C. has run for over 100 yards in each of his last three games, and has two touchdowns in each of those games.

9. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (vs. HOU) - The undrafted rookie has run for at least 90 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks, and Royce Freeman is hurt right now.

10. Adrian Peterson, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Speaking of hurt, it seems like AP has played hurt most of the season, but he's still played well, and Chris Thompson might not play this week.

11. Lamar Miller, Texans (@ DEN) - The re-emergence of Miller seems to have coincided with the re-emergence of Deshaun Watson. He's run for over 100 yards each of the last two weeks.

12. Jordan Howard, Bears (@ BUF) - Howard has had to share touches with Taerik Cohen, but he does have a touchdown each of the last two weeks and should feast against Buffalo.

13. Nick Chubb, Browns (vs. KC) - The rookie is the clear early-down back in Cleveland, and he gets a matchup with a Chief defense that has had trouble containing running backs.

14. Tarik Cohen, Bears (@ BUF) - The explosive back only gets so many touches, but he usually takes full advantage of those touches, and he should be able to do that again in Buffalo.

15. Chris Carson, Seahawks (vs. LAC) - C.C. (not Sabathia) has thrived lately, rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last four games.

16. Mark Ingram II, Saints (vs. LAR) - Mark obviously is limited by the presence of Alvin Kamara, but he has still gotten double-digit carries each of the last three weeks.

17. Kerryon Johnson, Lions (@ MIN) - Kerryon My Wayward Johnson only had eight carries for 22 yards last week, but he also had six catches for 69 yards.

18. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (NYJ) - I'm not all that enthused by Drake, but he has found the endzone each of the last two weeks.

19. Sony Michel, Patriots (vs. GB) - After missing last week's game, it looks like the impressive rookie will play this week, but it remains to be seen how involved he is Sunday night.

20. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (@ WAS) - Ito Smith has cut into his workload, but Coleman is still the number one running back in Atlanta.

21. Aaron Jones, Packers (@ NE) - Ty Montgomery is gone, which means it might finally be the Aaron Jones show in Green Bay. I'm not sure if the Packers will run a lot in New England, though.

22. Chris Thompson, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Like his backfield mate, Thompson is banged up. He might not play Sunday. If he does, he draws a very good matchup.

23. Dion Lewis, Titans (@ DAL) - Dion had been largely quiet until two weeks ago, when 155 total yards in London. We'll see if he can follow that up with another big game.

24. Jalen Richard, Raiders (@ SF) - Richard has been heavily targeted in the passing game (21 total catches the past three weeks), and I think this could be a high-scoring game.

25. LeSean McCoy, Bills (vs. CHI) - Although Shady looked better last week (he had 95 total yards), the Bears defense presents a tough matchup.

26. Alex Collins, Ravens (vs. PIT) - The last time these two teams met, Collins did have a touchdown. He didn't do much else, though.

27. Latavius Murray, Vikings (vs. DET) - Dalvin Cook returned to practice this week, but it remains to be seen how much Dalvin plays this week. If Cook doesn't play, Murray is a top-20 back.

28. Isaiah Crowell, Jets (@ MIA) - The Crow hasn't done much this season aside from a 219 (!!) yard rushing game against Denver, but he does have upside (as evidenced by his 219-yard game).

29. Duke Johnson Jr., Browns (vs. KC) - Who know how the Cleveland offense will look after the coaching changes, but I bet Duke gets a lot more touches.

30. Peyton Barber, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - Peyton (no relation to Tiki and Ronde) (I just said that without actually checking) rushed 19 times for 85 yards and a touchdown last week.



Wide Receiver

1. Adam Thielen, Vikings (vs. DET) - Adam Thielen is a magician. That is all.

2. Michael Thomas, Saints (vs. LAR) - He's listed as questionable, but I expect him to play in what could be a shootout.

3. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ DEN) - This guy will catch anything, and now his quarterback has returned to form. Watch out.

4. Antonio Brown, Steelers (@ BAL) - AB has scored in all but one game this season. This guy is pretty good at football.

5. Julio Jones, Falcons (@ WAS) - You would think a receiver as talented as Jones would find the endzone at some point. Unless he's forgotten what it looks like...

6. Devante Adams, Packers (@ NE) - Aaron Rodgers' favorite target will be busy Sunday night against the weak New England pass defense.

7. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - Mike had 179 receiving yards last week. When Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting early in the season, Mike had 147-yard game and a 137-yard game.

8. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (@ CLE) - Kansas City will find creative ways to get Tyreek the ball (as they always do) on Sunday in Cleveland.

9. Robert Woods, Rams (@ NO) - Stock up on as many offensive players as possible for this game. I think it'll be a fantasy bonanza.

10. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (vs. DET) - The man with sticky hands had 10 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown last week.

11. Brandin Cooks, Rams (@ NO) - See Woods, Robert.

12. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (vs. HOU) - There is one less receiver in Denver, which can only help the Broncos' leading pass-catcher.

14. Julian Edelman, Patriots (vs. GB) - It should be a pass-fest in New England, which is good news for Tom Brady's favorite receiver.

15. Keenan Allen, Chargers (@ SEA) - Seattle is tough against the pass, but Allen will still produce with his high volume of targets.

16. Jarvis Landry, Browns (vs. KC) - As I've said before, who knows how the Cleveland offense will handle this coaching change, but Jarvis is one of the most heavily-targeted players in the league.

17. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (@ BAL) - JuJu dressed in full uniform for Halloween, because of course he did.

18. Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ NO) - See Cooks, Brandin.

19. Kenny Golladay, Lions (@ MIN) - With Golden Tate gone, someone has to take all of his targets. Golladay is the best bet.

20. Marvin Jones Jr., Lions (@ MIN) - Marvin Jones Jr. is the second-best bet.

21. John Brown, Ravens (vs. PIT) - Smoke was quiet last week, but he still had the same number of targets as the week before, when he had 134 yards and a touchdown.

22. Devin Funchess, Panthers (vs. TB) - Funchess was also quiet last week, but he has a really good matchup against Tampa Bay.

23. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (@ CLE) - A true boom-or-bust proposition, Sammy had 107 yards and two touchdowns last week after seven relatively quiet weeks.

24. Josh Gordon, Patriots (vs. GB) - Flash Gordon was reportedly going to sit out the start of last week's game because he was late to practice. He didn't sit out, and he was targeted six times.

25. Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. HOU) - As I mentioned earlier, Sutton might be the biggest beneficiary from the Trade Deadline.

26. Demaryius Thomas, Texans (@ DEN) - It might take some time for DT to build a rapport with Deshaun Watson, but he is very familiar with his opponent on Sunday.

27. DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers (@ CAR) Of the four games Ryan Fitzpatrick has started this season, D-Jax has gone for over 100 yards in three of them.

28. DJ Moore, Panthers (vs. TB) - The rookie had his best game yet last week, catching five passes for 90 yards (and rushing for 36 yards). He could have his best game yet again this week.

29. Amari Cooper, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - I almost forgot about Amari Cooper, who is playing his first game for Dallas this weekend. We'll see how he fits in the offense.

30. Michael Crabtree, Ravens (vs. PIT) - Crabtree didn't do much last time the Ravens played Pittsburgh, but he was targeted eight times.


Tight End

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (@ CLE) - Travis Kelce has usurped Gronk as the clear-cut number one tight end in fantasy.

2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs. GB) - Speaking of Rob, he should have a productive game Sunday night against Green Bay.

3. Greg Olsen, Panthers (vs. TB) - It looks like GO is back back (he has a touchdown each of the last two weeks), and he has a good matchup against Tampa Bay.

4. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - O'Terrius Jabari has over 60 yards receiving in each of his last three games.

5. David Njoku, Browns (vs. KC) - After two straight weeks with a touchdown, Njoku did not even see a single target last week. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

6. Trey Burton, Bears (@ BUF) - A week after caching nine of 11 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown, Burton caught three of four targets for 18 yards. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

7. Jimmy Graham, Packers (@ NE) - A week after catching five of nine targets for 104 yards, Graham caught one of four targets for 21 yards. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

8. Jordan Reed, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Reed was targeted 12 times last week, which was a season-high. He is trending in the right direction.

9. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. DET) - It's hard to get a whole lot of targets when you have Adam Theilen and Stefon Diggs on your team, but the red-nosed reindeer did get seven targets last week.

10. Austin Hooper, Falcons (@ WAS) - After two straight games with double-digit targets, Hooper was targeted four times last week. It's hard to trust... you get the gist.

11. Vance McDonald, Steelers (@ BAL) - The first time these two teams met, Vance from Vance Refrigeration had five catches for 62 yards. Decent.

12. Benjamin Watson, Saints (vs. LAR) - Sherlock Holmes' best friend was not targeted last week against Minnesota, a week after catching six passes for 43 yards and a touchdown. You can't trust...

13. Chris Herndon IV, Jets (@ MIA) - I still don't know where this guy came from (update: he's a rookie 4th-rounder from Miami), but he has a touchdown in each of the last three games.

14. Charles Clay, Bills (vs. CHI) - At this point...

15. Hayden Hurst, Ravens (vs. PIT) - ...I'm just grasping at straws.

16. Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - You could honestly put these guys down here in any order...

17. Antonio Gates, Chargers (@ SEA) - ...because at this point, you're pretty much hoping for a touchdown.

18. Geoff Swaim, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - Good luck.

19. Jeff Heuerman, Broncos (vs. HOU) - Honestly...

20. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - ...it's a crapshoot this deep at the tight end position.

Defense/Special Teams

1. Chicago Bears (@ BUF) - I don't know if you've heard, but NATHAN PETERMAN is starting for the Bills this Sunday.

2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. TEN) - The Titans have been struggling offensively all season.

3. Houston Texans (@ DEN) - The Texans have a good defense, and Case Keenum will be without one of his top receivers.

4. Carolina Panthers (vs. TB) - I think the Fitz-magic ran out a while ago.

5. Baltimore Ravens (vs. PIT) - This is usually a low-scoring affair, and Baltimore's defense is stingy.

6. Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET) - Minnesota's talented defense won't have to worry about Golden Tate on Sunday.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (@ CLE) - Who know what Cleveland's offense will look like, and how they'll perform.

8. Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - Can't trust those Jets.

9. Denver Broncos (vs. HOU) - Either they will hold the Texans, or Deshaun Watson will throw five touchdown passes.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (@ BAL) - Old school AFC North football.


Kicker

1. Greg Zuerlein, Rams (@ NO)

2. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs. GB)

3. Will Lutz, Saints (vs. LAR)

4. Justin Tucker, Ravens (vs. PIT)

5. Harrison Butker, Chiefs (@ CLE)

6. Graham Gano, Panthers (vs. TB)

7. Matt Prater, Lions (@ MIN)

8. Mason Crosby, Packers (@ NE)

9. Dan Bailey, Vikings (vs. DET)

10. Ka'imi Fairbairn, Texans (@ DEN)


Week 9 Picks

Record
Last Week: 12-2   vs. Spread: 9-5   Over/Under: 7-6-1
Season: 79-43   vs. Spread: 61-57-3   Over/Under: 52-66-2

Thursday

Raiders 28, 49ers 21 (8:20 PM, FOX/NFL Network)

Spread: OAK -1.5   Over/Under: 44

Neither of these teams is very good, but the Niners are starting Nick Mullens at QB.


Sunday

Bears 31, Bills 7 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CHI -10   Over/Under: 37.5

The Bills are starting The Peter Man, so the Bears defense will have at least one pick-six.


Chiefs 32, Browns 21 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: KC -8.5   Over/Under: 51

The Chiefs are not an easy matchup right after you fire your head coach and OC.


Jets 21, Dolphins 23 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: MIA -3   Over/Under: 43.5

October may be over, but that doesn't necessarily mean Brocktober is over.


Lions 24, Vikings 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: MIN -5   Over/Under: 49

The Lions traded their leading receiver, while the Vikings have the NFL's leading receiver.


Falcons 34, Redskins 21 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: WAS -1.5   Over/Under: 48

Washington is on a roll right now, but I think the Falcons stop that roll.


Buccaneers 21, Panthers 35 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CAR -6   Over/Under: 55

Ryan Fitzpatrick may be a better option than Jameis Winston, but he's not a great option.


Steelers 17, Ravens 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: BAL -2.5   Over/Under: 47

I think this might be a defensive game, and Baltimore has the better defense.


Texans 27, Broncos 23 (4:05 PM, CBS)

Spread: DEN -1   Over/Under: 46

I think this will be a back-and-forth game, but Houston is definitely the superior team.


Chargers 20, Seahawks 27 (4:05 PM, CBS)

Spread: SEA -1   Over/Under: 47.5

Although the Legion of Boom is dead, the Seattle defense is very much alive.


Rams 28, Saints 31 (4:25 PM, FOX)

Spread: LAR -1.5   Over/Under: 58.5

This might be the best game of the weekend, and I think it'll end in loss #1 for the Rams.


Packers 34, Patriots 31 (8:20 PM, NBC)

Spread: NE -5.5   Over/Under: 56.5

Aaron Rodgers didn't get a game-winning drive last week, but he will this week.


Monday

Titans 14, Cowboys 24 (8:15 PM, ESPN)

Spread: DAL -5.5   Over/Under: 40.5

I'd much rather watch Rams-Saints in primetime than Titans-Cowboys, but alas...


Stats and Info via ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and OddsShark.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Friday afternoon (except the Thursday night game)









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