The finish line of the 2018 college football regular season is on the horizon, but there is still a lot to be settled before that point. In only five conference/division races is the leader up by more than a game. These last few weeks will be crucial in determining who plays where come postseason time.
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| Boston College will try to take down Clemson Saturday night |
Record
Last Week: 14-7 vs. Spread: 8-12-1 Over/Under: 13-8
Season: 134-46 vs. Spread: 80-81-1 Over/Under: 68-82-2
Thursday
Wake Forest @ #14 NC State (7:30 PM, ESPN)
Final: Wake Forest 27, NC State 23
Friday
Louisville @ #13 Syracuse (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Syracuse is up to 13th, it's highest ranking since 1998. when the Orange were #11 in the AP Top 25 and had Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Dino Babers' squad faces a Louisville team that has been a mess in the first year after Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are 2-7 and have lost six in a row. The Louisville offense has been anemic, averaging 345 yards per game (113th in the FBS). It's hard to see the Cards having a chance against the surging Orange.
Spread: SYR -20 Over/Under: 68.5
Prediction: Syracuse 35, Louisville 3
#23 Fresno State @ Boise State (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
This game sees a role reversal between two Mountain West rivals. Both teams are usually two of the best in the conference, but it's usually Boise State, not Fresno State, making appearance in the rankings. This season, the 8-1 Bulldogs are ranked, while the 7-2 Broncos are not. It will likely be a shootout between two high-scoring teams. The two rank 11th (Fresno State) and 21st (Boise State) in the FBS in points per game, so FSU's Marcus McMaryion (20 TD, 3 INT) and BSU's Brett Rypien (24 TD, 6 INT) will be slinging the ball all over Friday night. I'm predicting a Blue Field Bronco upset at home.
Spread: FRES -2.5 Over/Under: 55.5
Prediction: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31
Saturday
TCU @ #9 West Virginia (Noon, FOX Sports 1)
The 4-5 Horned Frogs have fallen off the wagon, losing three of their last four games (including one to Kansas), but they halt their three-game skid with a one-point win over Kansas State last week. The 7-1 Mountaineers are still hoping for a shot at the Playoff and are coming off a last-second win over Texas. I don't think this game will require a two-point conversion in the waning seconds to lift West Virginia.
Spread: WVU -13.5 Over/Under: 55.5
Prediction: West Virginia 38, TCU 24
#10 Ohio State @ #18 Michigan State (Noon, FOX)
I'll be honest. I'm a little concerned about how Ohio State is playing right now. I saw someone on Twitter compare this season to Urban Meyer's final season at Florida, when the Gators finished 7-5 and Meyer retired from coaching, citing health reasons. I don't know if this season will end up that badly, but the Buckeyes are trending in the wrong direction. However, they have superior talent to Michigan State, another team that has been a bit disappointing this season.
Spread: OSU -4 Over/Under: 49
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan State 24
Navy @ #12 UCF (Noon, ESPN2)
They've had a couple of close calls, but the self-proclaimed defending champs still hold the longest winning streak in the FBS (21 straight games). Meanwhile, Navy has lost six games in a row. The 2-7 Midshipmen average almost 200 fewer yards per game than the high-octane Knights (359 to 549), and have also allowed more yards per game (441 to 430). I don't see a road to a Navy upset here.
Spread: UCF -23.5 Over/Under: 68
Prediction: UCF 40, Navy 17
South Carolina @ #15 Florida (Noon, ESPN)
These two 6-3 SEC teams are trending in opposite directions. Florida has lost its last two games, and neither was close (17-36 to Georgia and 17-38 to Missouri). South Carolina has won its last two games, and both were close (27-24 over Tennessee and 48-44 over Ole Miss). However, Florida is still the superior team (as evidenced by number beside the name), and I think the Gators will get back into the win column in Gainesville.
Spread: FLA -7 Over/Under: 54
Prediction: Florida 24, South Carolina 14
Wisconsin @ #20 Penn State (Noon, ABC)
Two Big Ten teams that had College Football Playoff aspirations at the beginning of the season meet Saturday in College Station, PA. The Badgers were ranked fourth in the first AP Top 25 poll of the season, but a stunning upset loss to BYU put their Playoff hopes on life support. Since then, they have also lost to Michigan and Northwestern (and neither game was very close). The Nittany Lions, who were a top ten team most of the season, have lost three of their last five (including a 42-7 loss to Michigan last week). This will be a battle, but I'll go with Trace McSorely and Penn State.
Spread: PSU -7.5 Over/Under: 53.5
Prediction: Penn State 28, Wisconsin 21
#16 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama (3:30 PM, CBS)
Alabama is going to win this game (and it probably won't be close), so instead of talking about the matchup, let's talk about 2018 Heisman Trophy winner Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is a rare breed. First of all, he's left-handed. I can only name three left-handed quarterbacks (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow). Second of all, he looks like a generational talent. He's thrown one interception all season (and has been sacked just four times). He's thrown 27 touchdowns (even though he's only thrown one fourth-quarter pass all season) and has completed 68 percent of his passes. He does not have a game with a QBR (Quarterback Rating) under 80. He has been compared to Russell Wilson, and NFL scouts think he's be the #1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft if he was eligible, but he still has to stay in school for one more year. That's scary.
Spread: ALA -22 Over/Under: 51.5
Prediction: Alabama 52, Mississippi State 24
#4 Michigan @ Rutgers (3:30 PM, Big Ten Network)
I would call Rutgers the Cleveland Browns of the Big Ten, but that would be an insult to the Browns. This will be a bloodbath.
Spread: MICH -38 Over/Under: 47.5
Prediction: Michigan 45, Rutgers 3
Oklahoma State @ #6 Oklahoma (3:30 PM, ABC)
We get to see a Big 12 rivalry game in the great(?) state of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, as big brother (Oklahoma) takes on little brother (Oklahoma State). In a Tua-less world, Kyler Murray would be the Heisman front-runner. The two-sport athlete has 38 total touchdowns on the season, and he has accounted for 3263 total yards. Sooner head coach Lincoln Riley has never lost to Oklahoma State, and I don't think he will Saturday against a Cowboy team that has lost three of its last four.
Spread: OKLA -21.5 Over/Under: 80
Prediction: Oklahoma 50, Oklahoma State 32
#8 Washington State @ Colorado (3:30 PM, ESPN)
You know who the hottest team in college football is right now. Alabama, obviously. But you know who the second-hottest team in college football is right now? Probably Central Florida, since they haven't lost in two years. But you know who the third-hottest team in college football is right now? Well, Clemson and Notre Dame haven't lost this season... what I'm trying to say is, Washington State is on fire right now. The 8-1 Cougars have won five in a row, including big games over Utah, Oregon and Stanford. I don't think Colorado will be able to stop red-hot Wazzu.
Spread: WSU -6.5 Over/Under: 61
Prediction: Washington State 35, Colorado 24
#11 Kentucky @ Tennessee (3:30 PM, SEC Network)
Kentucky had a chance to get a statement win last week against Georgia. Instead, the Wildcats got handled, 34-17. They'll try to bounce back against Tennessee. The Vols have had been up-and-down in Jeremy Pruitt's first season as head coach. They own a big win over Auburn, but they are 4-5 overall. I think the Cats will get back on track this week.
Spread: UK -5 Over/Under: 42
Prediction: Kentucky 32, Tennessee 21
Northwestern @ #21 Iowa (3:30 PM, FOX)
This week's obligatory ol'-fashioned Big Ten brawl between two okay teams takes place in Iowa City (which is in Iowa, in case you were wondering). The Hawkeyes have dropped two games in a row, while Northwestern followed up a win over Wisconsin with a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. Iowa, back at home and in need of a win, should take this one.
Spread: IOWA -10 Over/Under: 43.5
Prediction: Iowa 28, Northwestern 17
Baylor @ #22 Iowa State (3:30 PM, FS1)
We stay in the great(?) state of Iowa for this Big 12 matchup. 5-4 Baylor has had a rough five-game stretch that included games against Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia (all losses), but the Bears did beat Oklahoma State last week. Iowa State has won its last four games, which included games against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. I'm predicting a double for the Hawkeye State.
Spread: ISU -17 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Iowa State 35, Baylor 17
#24 Auburn @ #5 Georgia (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Georgia has faced the number nine team in the country each of the past two week (first Florida, then Kentucky), and the Bulldogs have routed both. It'll be a tough under-bringing for an Auburn team that beat Texas A&M last week. This will be a ground-and-pound game, and I think it'll result in a Georgia win.
Spread: UGA -13.5 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Georgia 32, Auburn 17
Florida State @ #3 Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC)
Does Irish quarterback Ian Book's absence worry me (for Notre Dame's sake) when it comes to Saturday night's game against Florida State? No, not really. Brandon Wimbush will be starting for the Irish Saturday, and he'll get to face a Seminole squad that has lost three of its last four games. The Noles could make it close, but probably not that close.
Spread: ND -16.5 Over/Under: 49.5
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Florida State 24
#7 LSU @ Arkansas (7:30 PM, SECN)
LSU will look to pick up the pieces after getting shutout by Alabama last week. There are few better teams to do it against than the 2-7 Razorbacks, whose only wins were against Eastern Illinois (Eastern Illinois?!) and Tulsa. The Tigers should have no trouble against Arkansas.
Spread: LSU -13 Over/Under: 49
Prediction: LSU 35, Arkansas 10
#19 Texas @ Texas Tech (7:30 PM, FOX)
Both Texas and Texas Tech have lost their last two games. The Longhorns followed up a three-point loss to Oklahoma State with a one-point loss to West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost by 11 to Iowa State and five to Oklahoma. This will probably be a high-scoring affair, since both teams rank in the top 50 in the FBS in point per game. I'm going to go with the host Red Raiders in this one.
Spread: TEX -2.5 Over/Under: 62.5
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Texas 35
#2 Clemson @ #17 Boston College (8:00 PM, ABC)
Boston College has a shot at beating Clemson, but I don't think the Eagles will. I wouldn't rule out a tight game that gives Boston College a chance in the final minutes, but I fully expect Clemson to win.
Spread: CLEM -18.5 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Clemson 42, Boston College 24
Stats and info via ESPN.com and SBNation.com
Lines via OddsShark.com and ESPN.com
Lines as of Friday evening/Saturday morning
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