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| Who will be in the College Football Playoff? We'll find out this weekend. |
The most interesting thing to monitor as Selection Sunday draws closer will be the cases of Oklahoma and Ohio State. If both teams win their conference championship games (and Alabama beats Georgia), it will be one of them occupying the final Playoff spot. Both teams employ elite offenses and bad defenses. Ohio State supporters will argue that both the offense and defense of the Buckeyes has been better, and will point to their utter domination of Michigan last Saturday. Oklahoma will point to Ohio State's 29-point loss to Purdue, which is much worse than Oklahoma's three-point loss to Texas. Right now, Oklahoma is ranked ahead of Ohio State, and if both teams win this weekend, it will probably be the Sooners taking on Alabama on New Year's Day (unless Ohio State absolutely dominates Northwestern), but there will be (and have been) debates regarding the two teams all week if both win this weekend. We'll find out the results Sunday night.
Record
Last Week: 15-3 vs. Spread: 8-9-1 Over/Under: 10-8
Season: 182-57 vs. Spread: 93-115-3 Over/Under: 97-112-2
Friday
MAC Championship
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (Detroit, MI, 7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Buffalo's chance of making it to Detroit took a hit after a loss to Ohio two weeks ago, but the 10-2 Bulls clinched a spot in the championship with a win over Bowling Green last week. Meanwhile, the 7-5 Huskies, despite losing their final two games, held on to the West division. Buffalo is clearly the better team (while the teams are almost statistically even defensively, the Bulls average 35.3 point per game to NIU's 19.9 and 419.4 yards per game to NIU's 318). I fully expect the Bulls to rumble to a victory over the Huskies in Detroit Friday night.
Spread: BUFF -3.5 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Buffalo 27, Northern Illinois 17
PAC-12 Championship
#17 Utah vs. #11 Washington (Santa Clara, CA, 8:00 PM, FOX)
Washington beat rival Washington State in the Apple Cup last week to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship, while Utah held off Arizona State for a trip to Santa Clara. In a league known more for offense, the two best defensive teams made the title game. The 9-3 Utes rank 15th in the country in total defense (315.8 yards allowed per game), while the 9-3 Huskies rank 13th nationally (311.3 yards allowed per game). Utah will put up a fight, but Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin will be etermined to end their Husky careers as conference champions.
Spread: WASH -5.5 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Washington 31, Utah 24
Saturday
Big 12 Championship
#14 Texas vs. #5 Oklahoma (Arlington, TX, Noon, ABC)
To get into the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma will have to conquer a roadblock it couldn't conquer earlier in the season. The Longhorns went to Norman on October 6 and knocked off the Sooners, beating them 48-45 on a last-second field goal from Dicker the Kicker. Texas pulled off the upset thanks in part to three Oklahoma turnovers. The 9-3 Longhorns will have to win the turnover battle again to pull off a second win over their rivals. It's doable, as is scoring on Oklahoma's putrid defense, but Kyler Murray and OU's top-ranked offense will be hard to stop.
Spread: OKLA -8 Over/Under: 77.5
Prediction: Oklahoma 52, Texas 45
Sun Belt Championship
Louisiana @ Appalachian State (Noon, ESPN)
One of two lopsided championship game matchups (at least on paper), 7-5 Louisiana-Lafayette faces off against heavily-favored 9-2 App State. The Ragin' Cajuns beat rival UL-Monroe last week to win the Sun Belt West. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers held off Troy in the much more competitive Sun Belt East. The key difference between these teams is on defense, and it's a stark difference. Appalachian State ranks fourth in the nation in total defense (276.9 yards allowed per game), while UL-Lafayette ranks 104th (443.2 yards allowed per game). These two teams already met this season, with App State winning 27-17. It might not be that close this time.
Spread: APP -16.5 Over/Under: 58
Prediction: Appalachian State 42, Louisiana 24
Conference USA Championship
UAB @ Middle Tennessee (1:30 PM, CBS Sports Network)
After losing it's football program following the 2014 season, the University of Alabama-Birmingham made it's return to the field last season, getting to a bowl game. This year, the 9-3 Blazers will look to win a C-USA title. They'll have to overcome 8-4 Middle Tennessee, a team that just beat them last week, 27-3. UAB (the statistically superior team) will make it closer this time around, but the surging Blue Raiders, led by senior quarterback (and coach's son) Brent Stockstill (2852 passing yards, 26 TD, 6 INT on the season) will be hard to beat.
Spread: MTSU -1 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 28, UAB 24
AAC Championship
Memphis @ #8 UCF (3:30 PM, ABC)
The Knights of Central Florida rode to their 24th straight victory last week, but lost star quarterback McKenzie Milton in the process. Now they'll have to beat a team that has come excruciatingly close to ending the win streak twice. In last season's American Athletic Conference Championship, the Tigers took the Knights to double-overtime, but couldn't finish the deal. Earlier this season, Memphis blew a double-digit lead as UCF came back and won, 31-30. Facing a Central Florida team without the dangerous Milton, I think Memphis will finally put an end to the streak this Saturday.
Spread: UCF -3 Over/Under: 64.5
Prediction: Memphis 40, UCF 38
SEC Championship
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia (Atlanta, GA, 4:00 PM, CBS)
The SEC title game pits two of the best teams in the country against each other, and it is the lone game this weekend that has Playoff implications for both teams. This is basically a play-in game for the College Football Playoff (as it usually is), but if Georgia wins, both teams will likely make the Playoff. Alabama's toughest test so far this season was a 45-23 win over Texas A&M. Aside from a blowout loss to LSU, Georgia has beaten everyone by at least 17 points. Although the Bulldogs are a very good team, it's going to take a lot to knock off unbeaten Bama. I think Georgia has a chance to upset the Tide, but I don't think it will happen.
Spread: ALA -13 Over/Under: 63.5
Prediction: Alabama 38, Georgia 24
Mountain West Championship
#25 Fresno State @ #22 Boise State (7:45 PM, ESPN)
Old friends meet again in the Mountain West Championship. For the second straight season, the Bulldogs and Broncos will meet in Boise for the MWC crown. And for the second straight season, it will be a rematch of a regular season game. Last year, Fresno State beat Boise State the last week of the regular season, but Boise State got revenge in the championship game. This year, the Bulldogs will be looking to return the favor after losing 24-17 in Boise three weeks ago. I think the 10-2 Bulldogs could get revenge on the 10-2 Broncos, but the hosts have been playing well of late, especially offensively, so I'll go with BSU.
Spread: BSU -1.5 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Boise State 31, Fresno State 28
ACC Championship
#2 Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (Charlotte, NC, 8:00 PM, ABC)
All unbeaten Clemson needs to do to solidify a spot in the College Football Playoff is beat 7-5 Pitt Saturday night. The ACC has been weak beyond the dominant Tigers, who enter Saturday night's tilt as overwhelming favorites. Offensively, Clemson average over 15 more points per game and 150 more yards per game than the Panthers, and defensively, Clemson gives up over ten less points and over 100 less yards per game than the Panthers, who are coming off a 24-3 loss to Miami. It is definitely possible for Pitt to pull off the monumental upset, but it is definitely not probable.
Spread: CLEM -27.5 Over/Under: 51.5
Prediction: Clemson 38, Pittsburgh 13
Big Ten Championship
#21 Northwestern vs. #6 Ohio State (Indy, IN, 8:00 PM, FOX)
Ohio State, fresh off of an absolute thumping of rival Michigan, needs to win Saturday night and hope for a Texas win (and an Alabama win) to make the Playoff. On paper, the first part of that shouldn't be hard for the Buckeyes, as 8-4 Northwestern had a far easier route to the championship game. However, Ohio State has had problems against mediocre Big Ten teams (such as Purdue), so the Wildcats could pull off the upset. I don't think they will (and I hope they don't), especially if the Buckeyes play anything like they did last week.
Spread: OSU -14.5 Over/Under: 61
Prediction: Ohio State 40, Northwestern 24
Stats and info via ESPN.com, The Athletic, SI.com, and BleacherReport.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Friday afternoon
Season: 182-57 vs. Spread: 93-115-3 Over/Under: 97-112-2
Friday
MAC Championship
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (Detroit, MI, 7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Buffalo's chance of making it to Detroit took a hit after a loss to Ohio two weeks ago, but the 10-2 Bulls clinched a spot in the championship with a win over Bowling Green last week. Meanwhile, the 7-5 Huskies, despite losing their final two games, held on to the West division. Buffalo is clearly the better team (while the teams are almost statistically even defensively, the Bulls average 35.3 point per game to NIU's 19.9 and 419.4 yards per game to NIU's 318). I fully expect the Bulls to rumble to a victory over the Huskies in Detroit Friday night.
Spread: BUFF -3.5 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Buffalo 27, Northern Illinois 17
PAC-12 Championship
#17 Utah vs. #11 Washington (Santa Clara, CA, 8:00 PM, FOX)
Washington beat rival Washington State in the Apple Cup last week to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship, while Utah held off Arizona State for a trip to Santa Clara. In a league known more for offense, the two best defensive teams made the title game. The 9-3 Utes rank 15th in the country in total defense (315.8 yards allowed per game), while the 9-3 Huskies rank 13th nationally (311.3 yards allowed per game). Utah will put up a fight, but Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin will be etermined to end their Husky careers as conference champions.
Spread: WASH -5.5 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Washington 31, Utah 24
Saturday
Big 12 Championship
#14 Texas vs. #5 Oklahoma (Arlington, TX, Noon, ABC)
To get into the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma will have to conquer a roadblock it couldn't conquer earlier in the season. The Longhorns went to Norman on October 6 and knocked off the Sooners, beating them 48-45 on a last-second field goal from Dicker the Kicker. Texas pulled off the upset thanks in part to three Oklahoma turnovers. The 9-3 Longhorns will have to win the turnover battle again to pull off a second win over their rivals. It's doable, as is scoring on Oklahoma's putrid defense, but Kyler Murray and OU's top-ranked offense will be hard to stop.
Spread: OKLA -8 Over/Under: 77.5
Prediction: Oklahoma 52, Texas 45
Sun Belt Championship
Louisiana @ Appalachian State (Noon, ESPN)
One of two lopsided championship game matchups (at least on paper), 7-5 Louisiana-Lafayette faces off against heavily-favored 9-2 App State. The Ragin' Cajuns beat rival UL-Monroe last week to win the Sun Belt West. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers held off Troy in the much more competitive Sun Belt East. The key difference between these teams is on defense, and it's a stark difference. Appalachian State ranks fourth in the nation in total defense (276.9 yards allowed per game), while UL-Lafayette ranks 104th (443.2 yards allowed per game). These two teams already met this season, with App State winning 27-17. It might not be that close this time.
Spread: APP -16.5 Over/Under: 58
Prediction: Appalachian State 42, Louisiana 24
Conference USA Championship
UAB @ Middle Tennessee (1:30 PM, CBS Sports Network)
After losing it's football program following the 2014 season, the University of Alabama-Birmingham made it's return to the field last season, getting to a bowl game. This year, the 9-3 Blazers will look to win a C-USA title. They'll have to overcome 8-4 Middle Tennessee, a team that just beat them last week, 27-3. UAB (the statistically superior team) will make it closer this time around, but the surging Blue Raiders, led by senior quarterback (and coach's son) Brent Stockstill (2852 passing yards, 26 TD, 6 INT on the season) will be hard to beat.
Spread: MTSU -1 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 28, UAB 24
AAC Championship
Memphis @ #8 UCF (3:30 PM, ABC)
The Knights of Central Florida rode to their 24th straight victory last week, but lost star quarterback McKenzie Milton in the process. Now they'll have to beat a team that has come excruciatingly close to ending the win streak twice. In last season's American Athletic Conference Championship, the Tigers took the Knights to double-overtime, but couldn't finish the deal. Earlier this season, Memphis blew a double-digit lead as UCF came back and won, 31-30. Facing a Central Florida team without the dangerous Milton, I think Memphis will finally put an end to the streak this Saturday.
Spread: UCF -3 Over/Under: 64.5
Prediction: Memphis 40, UCF 38
SEC Championship
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia (Atlanta, GA, 4:00 PM, CBS)
The SEC title game pits two of the best teams in the country against each other, and it is the lone game this weekend that has Playoff implications for both teams. This is basically a play-in game for the College Football Playoff (as it usually is), but if Georgia wins, both teams will likely make the Playoff. Alabama's toughest test so far this season was a 45-23 win over Texas A&M. Aside from a blowout loss to LSU, Georgia has beaten everyone by at least 17 points. Although the Bulldogs are a very good team, it's going to take a lot to knock off unbeaten Bama. I think Georgia has a chance to upset the Tide, but I don't think it will happen.
Spread: ALA -13 Over/Under: 63.5
Prediction: Alabama 38, Georgia 24
Mountain West Championship
#25 Fresno State @ #22 Boise State (7:45 PM, ESPN)
Old friends meet again in the Mountain West Championship. For the second straight season, the Bulldogs and Broncos will meet in Boise for the MWC crown. And for the second straight season, it will be a rematch of a regular season game. Last year, Fresno State beat Boise State the last week of the regular season, but Boise State got revenge in the championship game. This year, the Bulldogs will be looking to return the favor after losing 24-17 in Boise three weeks ago. I think the 10-2 Bulldogs could get revenge on the 10-2 Broncos, but the hosts have been playing well of late, especially offensively, so I'll go with BSU.
Spread: BSU -1.5 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Boise State 31, Fresno State 28
ACC Championship
#2 Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (Charlotte, NC, 8:00 PM, ABC)
All unbeaten Clemson needs to do to solidify a spot in the College Football Playoff is beat 7-5 Pitt Saturday night. The ACC has been weak beyond the dominant Tigers, who enter Saturday night's tilt as overwhelming favorites. Offensively, Clemson average over 15 more points per game and 150 more yards per game than the Panthers, and defensively, Clemson gives up over ten less points and over 100 less yards per game than the Panthers, who are coming off a 24-3 loss to Miami. It is definitely possible for Pitt to pull off the monumental upset, but it is definitely not probable.
Spread: CLEM -27.5 Over/Under: 51.5
Prediction: Clemson 38, Pittsburgh 13
Big Ten Championship
#21 Northwestern vs. #6 Ohio State (Indy, IN, 8:00 PM, FOX)
Ohio State, fresh off of an absolute thumping of rival Michigan, needs to win Saturday night and hope for a Texas win (and an Alabama win) to make the Playoff. On paper, the first part of that shouldn't be hard for the Buckeyes, as 8-4 Northwestern had a far easier route to the championship game. However, Ohio State has had problems against mediocre Big Ten teams (such as Purdue), so the Wildcats could pull off the upset. I don't think they will (and I hope they don't), especially if the Buckeyes play anything like they did last week.
Spread: OSU -14.5 Over/Under: 61
Prediction: Ohio State 40, Northwestern 24
Stats and info via ESPN.com, The Athletic, SI.com, and BleacherReport.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Friday afternoon
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