It's time to strap up your (metaphorical) boots and put on your (metaphorical) hard hat. We've reached the home stretch of the fantasy football season. For many leagues, the trade deadline has passed, and one misstep could mean an absence from the playoffs.
This week, I'm going to something different for my fantasy football preview. I will give my top three players for the week at each position, as well as three "sleeper" players I am high on this week. For full fantasy rankings, I recommend ESPN.com, YahooSports.com, or FantasyPros.com, which has composite rankings of 68 "experts" from various web sites. Also, if you have any start/sit questions, feel free to ask me. I'm more than happy to help.
Lastly, I'd like to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving (and a happy Black Friday, if you're into that). You should be thankful for what you have year-round, but especially during this time of year. I am thankful for my wonderful family and friends, and I am also thankful to have friends that I can play fantasy football with. Thank you all.
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| Happy Turkey Day to everyone who celebrates it |
Week 12 Picks to Click
Quarterback
Top 3
Drew Brees, Saints (vs. ATL) - Brees has been the third-best quarterback in fantasy this season (behind Pat Mahomes and Jared Goff, of course), and Thursday night he plays an Atlanta defense that has had trouble stopping opposing quarterbacks this season (the Falcons rank 29th in pass defense). It looks like there's no stopping Brees and the Saints right now.
Andrew Luck, Colts (vs. MIA) - After missing over a year with a shoulder injury, Luck has picked off right where he left off, now with an offensive line that has actually protected him. He has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of the last seven games, and he and the surging Colts face a Dolphin team reeling from a rout at the hands of the Packers.
Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. SEA) - I considered Matt Ryan against the Saints here too, but I'll take Cam, who has multiple touchdowns in nine of his ten games, over the guy who struggled against Dallas last week. The Seattle defense has not done very well against opposing quarterbacks this season.
Sleepers
Baker Mayfield, Browns (@ CIN) - I think the Browns have finally found their franchise quarterback. Since Freddie Kitchens took over as Offensive Coordinator. Baker has thrown for 513 yards five touchdowns and one interception. Cincinnati has been the worst defense in the league against opposing quarterbacks, so if Baker wakes up feeling dangerous, watch out.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs. OAK) - Lamar made his first career start last week, and he ran all over the Bengals, setting an NFL record for most rushes in a game by a quarterback (27). He turned those 27 carries into 117 yards, and also threw for 150 yards (and an interception). The Raiders have the second-worst rush defense in the league (ahead of Cincinnati, of course), so the Ravens will probably employ a similar gameplan to last week.
Nick Mullens, 49ers (@ TB) - The Nick Mullens hype train was short-lived, as the former undrafted free-agent followed up a three-touchdown performance against the Raiders with a one-touchdown/two-interception performance against the Giants. However, he does play a really bad Tampa pass defense this week, so he could be worth a flier if you need one.
Running Back
Top 3
Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs. ATL) -The number two running back in fantasy (behind Todd Gurley) has an excellent matchup this week. The porous Atlanta defense gave 201 total yards and touchdown to Ezekiel Elliott a week after giving up 209 total yards and two touchdowns to Nick Chubb. Kamara and the Saints should feast on Thanksgiving night.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers (vs. ARI) - MG3 has had over 100 total yards in each of his last six games (and at least a touchdown in six of his nine games). This week he faces an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run, paving the way for another big day from Gordon.
Saquon Barkley, Giants (@ PHI) - Saquon has at least 100 total yards in nine of his ten games this season, and he has at least one touchdown in seven of the ten. The Philadelphia defense just got blown out of the water by New Orleans (it's New Orleans, but still) in a game that included 173 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns by the Saints.
Sleepers
Gus Edwards, Ravens (vs. OAK) - I've already discussed the putrid Oakland rush defense, so let's talk about Gus. It was the Lamar Jackson-Gus Edwards show last week, as Edwards carried the ball 17 times for 115 yards and a touchdown. The rookie from Rutgers seems to be have taken the feature roll from Alex Collins (at least with Lamar Jackson at starting quarterback).
Duke Johnson Jr., Browns (@ CIN) - Even after Nick Chubb's big game two weeks ago, you musn't forget about the other back in Cleveland. After Duke was finally freed from the stranglehold of Todd Haley three weeks ago, he was overshadowed by Chubb against Atlanta. However, he still had four catches and a touchdown, and he faces a weak Cincinnati defense on Sunday.
Josh Adams, Eagles (vs. NYG) - Speaking of rookies taking over as the feature running back, Adams seems to have seized his opportunity in Philly. The former Notre Dame star has gotten at least seven carries each of the last three games, and he has averaged around seven yards per carry in those three games, which could lead to him getting even more carries.
Wide Receiver
Top 3
Michael Thomas, Saints (vs. ATL) - The argument for the best receiver in football is a hotly-contested one, and Thomas is right in the thick of it. Mike has registered 82 catches, 1,042 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season, and he and the scorching hot Saints should continue to roll against Atlanta.
Julio Jones, Falcons (@ NO) - Julio is also in the thick of the "best receiver in football" debate, as he has registered 73 catches and 1,158 yards this season. He also has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and he should perform well in what could be a very high-scoring affair.
Antonio Brown, Steelers (@ DEN) - You could put Odell Beckham Jr., Adam Thielen or DeAndre Hopkins here, but I'll go with AB, who has scored in every game this season but one. He also has gone over 100 yards receiving thrice, including last week against Jacksonville (five catches, 117 yards, a touchdown).
Sleepers
Kenny Golladay, Lions (vs. CHI) - Yes, I know the Bears have the best defense in football, but Detroit should be able to throw on them a little bit, and Matthew Stafford will have limited options with Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson out. The top offensive weapons for the Lions Thursday will probably be Golladay and Theo Riddick.
Mohamed Sanu, Falcons (@ NO) - Per ESPN's Matthew Berry, Mohamed Sanu has scored in three of his last four games against a New Orleans offense that has not played well vs. slot receivers, and per ESPN, he is second on the Falcons in vertical targets, receptions, and yards since Week 7.
D.J. Moore, Panthers (vs. SEA) - I don't know if you can call a guy coming off a seven-catch, 157-yard, one-touchdown performance a "sleeper", but the rookie hadn't done much before last week, which could cause some pause. I'm willing to bet on him again this week against a Seattle pass defense that hasn't been great against opposing wide receivers.
Tight End
Top 3
George Kittle, 49ers (@ TB) - The man of the fantasy people has 14 total targets and 191 total yards in his last two games, and he gets a matchup with a terrible Tampa Bay pass defense. Plus, I just traded him away in one of my leagues, so he'll probably go off.
Zach Ertz, Eagles (vs. NYG) - The star tight end had just two catches for 15 yards last week, as the Eagles got ramshacked by the Saints. Things should go better for the Eagles this wee against New York, so the number one tight end in fantasy should bounce back.
Greg Olsen, Panthers (vs. SEA) - The guy I traded Kittle for (the full trade was Kittle and Jarvis Landry for Olsen and Brandin Cooks) has slid right back into being Cam Newton's top red zone target since returning from injury, scoring in four of the last five games.
Sleepers
Jordan Reed, Redskins (@ DAL) - With Colt McCoy starting, he'll likely lean on Reed (a favorite target of his), especially with Jamison Crowder questionable to play. Reed was targeted 11 times last week, catching seven balls for 71 yards and a touchdown.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (vs. SF) - With O.J. Howard on IR, Brate becomes the top tight end in Tampa Bay. He was already getting a few targets per game as a second tight end, so he'll likely be heavily-incorporated into the Jameis Winston-quarterbacked offense.
David Njoku, Browns (@ CIN) - The second-year tight end has been inconsistent (his targets the last four games: 6, 0, 5, 1), but two things working for him are the improved Cleveland offense and the league-worst Cincinnati defense.
Defense/Special Teams
Top 3
Baltimore Ravens (vs. OAK) - The Ravens own the best defense (per total yards allowed per game) in the NFL, and they host an offense that has been largely gutted of playmakers. Oakland's top offensive players are Derek Carr, Jalen Richard and Jared Cook. Not exactly an all-star cast.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ BUF) - The Jaguar defense hasn't been as dominant this season as they were last season, but they have still been good. It looks like it will be a low-scoring affair between two strong defensive teams with bad offenses.
Buffalo Bills (vs. JAX) - Like I said, this will probably be a low-point-total game. I considered Chicago's elite defense against Detroit, but with the news that Chase Daniel will start for Mitchell Trubisky on Thanksgiving, I pushed the Bears out of the top three, because bad offense can negatively affect the defense.
Sleepers
Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS) - The Dallas defense hasn't been bad, and the Cowboys get a Thanksgiving Day matchup with a banged up offense that is starting Colt McCoy at quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. MIA) - Ryan Tannehill is starting Sunday, but that doesn't mean he'll present an upgrade over Brock Osweiler in his first game back. The Colts are playing really well as a team, and their defense has been decent.
Detroit Lions (vs. CHI) - Matt Nagy's offense has been rolling, but it might have hit a little speed bump with Mitchell Trubisky being out Thursday. The Bears still have offensive weapons around the quarterback, but Chase Daniel is a big question mark.
Kicker
Top 3
Will Lutz, Saints (vs. ATL) - The prolific Saints offense has turned Lutz, who was already a quality fantasy kicker, into an elite fantasy option every week.
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (@ NYJ) - Gostkowski is never a bad option, especially in what might be a high-scoring contest against the Jets.
Justin Tucker, Ravens (vs. OAK) - You can almost never go wrong with JT, especially against Oakland.
Week 12 Game Picks
Record
Last Week: 3-10 vs. Spread: 4-8-1 Over/Under: 6-7
Season: 98-64 vs. Spread: 78-78-5 Over/Under: 73-85-2
Thursday
Bears @ Lions (12:30 PM, CBS)
I would pick the Bears in a heartbeat if Mitchell Trubisky was playing, but instead it's Chase Daniel.
Spread: CHI -3 Over/Under: 43.5
Prediction: Lions 23, Bears 21
Redskins @ Cowboys (4:30 PM, FOX)
I'll take the 'Boys, who have won their last two games, over Colt McCoy and the depleted 'Skins.
Spread: DAL -7 Over/Under: 40.5
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 19
Falcons @ Saints (8:20 PM, NBC)
This has the makings of either a shootout that the Saints win or another dominant rout by the Saints.
Spread: NO -12.5 Over/Under: 60.5
Prediction: Saints 42, Falcons 34
Sunday
Browns @ Bengals (1:00 PM, CBS)
The Browns look better than they have in a long time, and the Bengals look worse than usual.
Spread: CIN -3 Over/Under: 47.5
Prediction: Browns 28, Bengals 24
Jaguars @ Bills (1:00 PM, CBS)
These two 3-7 teams have both mightily struggled offensively, but I still think the Jaguars are better.
Spread: JAC -3 Over/Under: 37
Prediction: Jaguars 13, Bills 6
Patriots @ Jets (1:00 PM, CBS)
The Patriots didn't play well before the bye, but the Jets looked awful before the bye.
Spread: NE -9.5 Over/Under: 46
Prediction: Patriots 35, Jets 21
Giants @ Eagles (1:00 PM, FOX)
The defending champs have look hungover this season, but they're still better than New York.
Spread: PHI -5.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 20
49ers @ Buccaneers (1:00 PM, FOX)
Jameis is back in the driver's seat for the Bucs, and I think he'll play (relatively) well vs. the Niners.
Spread: TB -3 Over/Under: 54.5
Prediction: Buccaneers 35, 49ers 24
Seahawks @ Panthers (1:00 PM, FOX)
I think Cam and the Panthers will bounce back from a tough loss to Detroit last week.
Spread: CAR -3 Over/Under: 47.5
Prediction: Panthers 27, Seahawks 23
Raiders @ Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)
After running past the Bengals, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens get another bad defense.
Spread: BAL -10.5 Over/Under: 43
Prediction: Ravens 28, Raiders 10
Cardinals @ Chargers (4:05 PM, FOX)
The Cardinals couldn't beat the Raiders last week, so I can't see them beating the Chargers this week.
Spread: LAC -12.5 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Chargers 32, Cardinals 14
Steelers @ Broncos (4:25 PM, CBS)
The Steelers won last week, but they did not look good, and the Broncos are coming off a big win.
Spread: PIT -3 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Broncos 27, Steelers 24
Dolphins @ Colts (4:25 PM, CBS)
You can't stop the Colts right now, you can only hope to contain them.
Spread: IND -7.5 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Colts 38, Dolphins 21
Packers @ Vikings (8:20 PM, NBC)
In this showdown between rivals, I'm going with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and the Pack.
Spread: MIN -3.5 Over/Under: 47.5
Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 27
Monday
Titans @ Texans (8:15 PM, ESPN)
What I said about the Colts also goes for the Texans, who play a team that just got whopped.
Spread: HOU -6 Over/Under: 41
Prediction: Texans 30, Titans 14
Stats and info via ESPN.com, YahooSports.com and FantasyPros.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Wednesday night
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