We have reached the final stretch of the season, as the initial College Football Playoff rankings came out this Tuesday. There wasn't a lot of mystery as to who the top four would be (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame). Minor qualms could be had further down the rankings, but overall, the first CFP Rankings of the 2018 season came with little controversy. Don't expect that to continue. As unbeatens go down and we near conference championships, there will be heavy scrutiny (as there always is) regarding these rankings.
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| Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa meet Saturday night in a heavyweight battle |
Record
Last Week: 11-6 vs. Spread: 9-8 Over/Under: 6-11
Season: 117-39 vs. Spread: 72-69 Over/Under: 55-74-2
Thursday
Temple @ #12 UCF (7:30 PM, ESPN)
Undefeated Central Florida comes in at #12 in the initial CFP rankings, and even if the Knights finish 12-0 for the second straight season, they will probably need some chaos in front of them to have a shot at the Playoff. They're well on their way to another flawless season. Even with a banged-up quarterback, I expect UCF to extend it's FBS-leading winning streak to 21 games.
Spread: UCF -11.5 Over/Under: 59.5
Prediction: UCF 40, Temple 31
Friday
Pittsburgh @ #25 Virginia (7:30 PM, ESPN2)
6-2 Virginia sees a number by its name for the first time this season, as the Cavs rounded out the initial CFP rankings. However, they must be wary of 4-4 Pittsburgh, a team that has beaten them each of the past three years. I think this year will be different, and I think the streaking Cavaliers will win their fourth conference game in a row.
Spread: UVA -7.5 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Virginia 35, Pittsburgh 24
Saturday
Louisville @ #2 Clemson (Noon, ABC)
Without electrifying Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, Louisville has struggled this season. The talented Cardinal defense (they have the nation's number one scoring defense) has been solid, but new starting quarterback Jawon Pass (seven touchdowns, eight interceptions) and the offense have been shaky, leading to a 2-6 record. Louisville, which has lost its last five games, will be hard-pressed to end that skid this week.
Spread: CLEM -39 Over/Under: 61
Prediction: Clemson 52, Louisville 7
Nebraska @ #10 Ohio State (Noon, FOX)
Ohio State is hoping that it got things together during its bye week after getting railroaded by Purdue two weeks ago. The Buckeyes usually have strong bounce-back performances following losses, and I expect them to continue that trend this Saturday. Scott Frost's Cornhuskers have won two straight after losing their first six games, but those two wins were against Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman. Ohio State is a little better than Bethune-Cookman.
Spread: OSU -18 Over/Under: 72.5
Prediction: Ohio State 48, Nebraska 20
#19 Syracuse @ Wake Forest (Noon, ACC Network)
6-2 Syracuse continued its strong season last week with a 51-41 win over NC State. The Orange, as I mentioned last week, pushed second-ranked Clemson to the brink earlier this season, so this team is legit. 4-4 Wake Forest could provide a tough matchup for 'Cuse, but I fully expect the resurgent Orange to leave with a victory.
Spread: SYR -6.5 Over/Under: 75.5
Prediction: Syracuse 35, Wake Forest 32
#20 Texas A&M @ Auburn (Noon, ESPN)
After starting the season ranked in the top ten, the Auburn Tigers have fallen out of the rankings completely. Before beating Ole Miss last week, Auburn had lost two in a row (to Mississippi State and Tennessee). The A&M Aggies have gone the opposite direction, starting the season unranked before entering the rankings thanks to a win over Kentucky. However, the Aggies lost to Mississippi State last week, and I think they'll lose at Auburn this week.
Spread: AUB -3.5 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Auburn 22, Texas A&M 20
#24 Iowa State @ Kansas (Noon, FOX Sports)
Matt Campbell could be the next head coach of the Cleveland Browns, but right now, he's guiding the 4-3 Cyclones, who travel to Kansas after making an appearance in the initial CFP rankings. The 3-5 Jayhawks are much better than they have been, and they beat TCU (which people thought was a very good team at one point) last week. But Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech (respectively) the last three weeks, so it'll be tough for Kansas to stop the Cyclones.
Spread: ISU -14.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Iowa State 35, Kansas 13
#6 Georgia @ #9 Kentucky (3:30 PM, CBS)
Believe it or not, this is not the biggest ranked matchup in the FBS this weekend (or even in the SEC). But it could end up being the most interesting. After suffering its lone loss to Texas A&M four weeks ago (in overtime), Kentucky has beaten Vandy by a touchdown and Missouri by a point. After suffering its lone loss to LSU three weeks ago (by a lot), Georgia walloped Florida last week. I'm going with the Bulldogs in this dog (and cat) fight.
Spread: UGA -9 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Georgia 32, Kentucky 24
#13 West Virginia @ #17 Texas (3:30 PM, FOX)
This key Big 12 showdown comes between two talented signal-callers. Texas sophomore Sam Ehlinger has played well, throwing for 1817 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions (and rushing for eight touchdowns). West Virginia senior Will Grier has played at an elite level, throwing for 2272 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. This should be a high-scoring affair, one I think Grier and the Mountaineers will win over the slumping Longhorns.
Spread: TEX -2 Over/Under: 58
Prediction: West Virginia 38, Texas 31
#16 Iowa @ Purdue (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Over in the Midwest, both Iowa and Purdue will look to bounce back from losses and stay alive in the Big Ten West race when the two teams meet in West Lafayette. A week after a rousing upset over Ohio State, Purdue went to East Lansing and lost to Michigan State. Back at home, the Boilermakers will look to take out the Hawkeyes, who lost at Penn State last week. I could see this game going either way, but I'm going to go with 6-2 Iowa over 4-4 Purdue.
Spread: PUR -2.5 Over/Under: 50.5
Prediction: Iowa 30, Purdue 28
Florida State @ #21 NC State (3:30 PM, ABC)
Even after a loss to Syracuse (their second loss in a row), the Wolfpack appeared in the initial CFP rankings. Florida State is coming off a 49-point loss to Clemson, but the Seminoles have shown they shouldn't be taken lightly (they lost to Miami by a single point). I'm going to go with an FSU upset over an NC State team trending in the wrong direction.
Spread: NCST -9 Over/Under: 53.5
Prediction: Florida State 32, NC State 27
#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan (3:45 PM, ESPN)
Penn State and Michigan meet Saturday afternoon in a game that could have a profound impact on the Big Ten West division race. The Nittany Lions will hope to hold on to their slim hopes, while the Wolverines will look to stay unbeaten in the Big Ten. Penn State has been shaky since losing to Ohio State. Michigan has been dominant since a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame. I'm going with U of M in the Big House.
Spread: MICH -10.5 Over/Under: 53
Prediction: Michigan 28, Penn State 21
#22 Boston College @ Virginia Tech (3:45 PM, ACCN)
Virginia Tech looked like a potential candidate for a New Year's 6 bowl at the beginning of the season, but a shocking loss to Old Dominion has sent the Hokies into a bit of a tail spin, as they've lost three of their last five. The 6-2 Eagles have looked good, aside from a blowout loss to Purdue earlier in the season. Boston College should be able to beat slumping Virginia Tech.
Spread: BC -2 Over/Under: 57.5
Prediction: Boston College 32, Virginia Tech 24
Missouri @ #11 Florida (4:00 PM, SEC Network)
Both Missouri and Florida are looking to rebound from tough losses, but they were tough for different reasons. The Gators, who were looking like a potential Playoff team, got smacked by Georgia. The Tigers, who had lost three of their last four, were on their way to upsetting Kentucky, but they gave up a game-winning touchdown on the final play. The last six meetings between these two teams have resulted in blowouts, so I think Florida will rout Missouri.
Spread: FLA -6 Over/Under: 57.5
Prediction: Florida 38, Missouri 21
#15 Utah @ Arizona State (4:00 PM, PAC-12 Network)
Utah controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South, but the Utes have to be careful not to trip up. They face a tough test in the 4-4 Sun Devils, whose four losses came by just seven points. If history is any indication, Herm Edwards' squad will not make it easy for Utah, but I think the Utes will escape Tempe with a victory.
Spread: UTAH -7 Over/Under: 56
Prediction: Utah 38, Arizona State 30
#4 Notre Dame @ Northwestern (7:15 PM, ESPN)
The unbeaten Fighting Irish are well on their way to a Playoff appearance, but they still have a few potentially tough tests left. One of them is Northwestern, a team that beat Wisconsin by two touchdowns last week. The 5-3 Wildcats are on a four-game winning streak after losing three of their last four. However, Notre Dame is rolling right now (aside from an ugly five-point win against Pitt two weeks ago), so it's hard to pick against the Irish.
Spread: ND -10 Over/Under: 53.5
Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Northwestern 21
Louisiana Tech @ #18 Mississippi State (7:30 PM, SECN)
This game may seem out of place amidst all of these inter-conference battles, but that's because the SEC is weird like that. In this battle of Bulldogs, 5-3 Mississippi State, fresh off a big win over Texas A&M, can't overlook 6-2 Louisiana Tech, a team that tested LSU earlier this season (before the Tigers pulled away to win by 17). I'm tempted to pick LA Tech in an upset. And I'm going to.
Spread: MSST -23.5 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 31, Mississippi State 30
#1 Alabama @ #3 LSU (8:00 PM, CBS)
This is arguably the biggest game of the season thus far. After just one week, there will be major movement at or near the top of the CFP Rankings. If you remember (which you probably don't, since I hardly do), I predicted way back in my Week 4 Preview that Alabama's first loss would come in Baton Rouge. Since then, LSU has lost to Florida but beaten Georgia and Mississippi State, and Alabama has continued laying waste to its opponents (side note: Tua is about as far ahead in the Heisman race as Lamar Jackson was two years ago). But since I am a man of my word, I will stick by that bold prediction. We'll see if it comes to fruition.
Spread: ALA -14.5 Over/Under: 54
Prediction: LSU 31, Alabama 28
#7 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (8:00 PM, ABC)
This probably won't be quite like the Baker Mayfield-Patrick Mahomes game two years ago, but it will still feature a whole lot of offense. The host Red Raiders, who are coming off a loss to Iowa State, rank seventh in the nation in total offense (528 yards per game). Future Major League Baseball player Kyler Murray and the 7-1 Sooners rank fourth in the nation in total offense (548 yards per game). The difference might be defense, which Oklahoma is much better at.
Spread: OKLA -13.5 Over/Under: 77
Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas Tech 35
#23 Fresno State @ UNLV (10:30 PM, CBS Sports Network)
Let's all give the Fresno State Bulldogs a warm welcome to the rankings. The 7-1 Bulldogs are ranked for the first time in five years thanks to a six-game winning streak. I fully expect that win streak to stretch to seven against the 2-6 UNLV Rebels, who have lost five games in a row.
Spread: FRES -26 Over/Under: 60.5
Prediction: Fresno State 45, UNLV 14
California @ #8 Washington State (10:45 PM, ESPN)
The college football slate isn't complete without some #Pac12AfterDark. This week's installment features the surging Washington State Cougars against a Cal team that beat Washington last week. As the 5-3 Bears showed last week, they are capable of pulling off the upset, but the Cougs are too hot to cool down right now.
Spread: WSU -9.5 Over/Under: 50
Prediction: Washington State 32, California 24
Stats and Info via ESPN.com, SBNation.com and OddsShark.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thusday Evening
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