Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Thursday, October 24, 2019

NFL 2019: Week 8

As we approach the midway point of the season, trade chatter is getting louder and teams are making moves. With the Trade Deadline next week, we've already seen several deals, and we'll likely see several more in the next few days. Here is who has been traded so far, and who might be traded in the coming days:

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  • Rams Ratchet it Up - A lot of movement occurred in the past two weeks, and it started when the L.A. Rams asked John Dorsey and the Browns if they'd be willing to trade guard Joel Bitonio for corner Marcus Peters. Cleveland said no, but Dorsey did send backup center Austin Corbett to Los Angeles for a draft pick. Following that deal, Les Snead sent Peters to Baltimore for Baltimore linebacker Kenny Young and a 2020 fifth-round pick. Les Snead and the Rams didn't stop there. They then pulled off a blockbuster for Jacksonville corner Jalen Ramsey, sending two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick to the Jaguars.


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  • The Trades Continued This Week - Tuesday, the Raiders sent corner Gareon Conley, a former first-round pick, to Houston for a third-round pick. That same day, the Patriots added to their wide receiver room, acquiring Mohamed Sanu from Atlanta for a second-round pick. But the day's trading was only halfway done. The 49ers also added to their receiving corps, acquiring Emmanuel Sanders from the Broncos in exchange for third- and fourth-round picks. Then Detroit made a surprising move by sending starting safety Quandre Diggs to Seattle for a fifth-round pick. 


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  • Who's Next? - There are several notable names on the trading block. Washington tackle Trent Williams, who is holding out, has been subject to trade rumors all season. Reports say that Bruce Allen is refusing to trade him right now, but multiple teams, namely Cleveland, are trying to change Allen's mind. Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard has also been rumored to potentially be on the move, as has Falcons linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. There may be more high-profile trades involving corners, as names like Arizona's Patrick Peterson and Denver's Chris Harris Jr. have appeared on the rumor mill as well. There will surely continue to be trade rumblings (and actual trades) all the way up until the 4:00 PM deadline next Tuesday.




Week 7 Superlatives

Best Performance: Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals (27 carries, 126 yards, 3 TD)


The 2018 fourth-rounder out of Fordham filled in for David Johnson, who was held back due to injury, and tore up the New York Giants defense to help propel Arizona to a 27-21 victory.


Best Play: Be Yourself, Unless you can be Eric Ebron


Colts tight end Eric Ebron made an incredible catch in the back of the endzone Sunday against Houston. Although he was originally called out of bounds, replay showed that he somehow got both feet down. The Colts went on to win, 30-20, and take over first place in the AFC South.


Best Quote: "I'm seeing ghosts" - Jets QB Sam Darnold


Apparently (*Googling...*) that kid from The Sixth Sense isn't the only one seeing dead people. Sam Darnold was mic'd up for New York's Monday Night Football game against New England, and he was getting haunted all night by the frightening Patriot defense.



Week 8 Games

Thursday

Redskins @ Vikings
(8:20 PM, FOX/NFL)

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Plenty of narratives surround this game. There's the "revenge" narrative (Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and Adrian Peterson are all playing their former team), the "Kirk Cousins in primetime" narrative, and the "Washington is bad" narrative. The last narrative will overwhelm the others.

Spread: WAS +16.5  O/U: Under 42

Prediction: Vikings 27, Redskins 13


Sunday

Seahawks @ Falcons
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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The Seahawks fell to Baltimore last week, but they should bounce back this Sunday in Atlanta. Matt Ryan got hurt last week, so Atlanta might have to start Matt Schaub. It won't matter who starts, because the Falcons are a mess. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan Quinn gets fired on their bye week.

Spread: SEA -3.5  O/U: Under 54

Prediction: Seahawks 32, Falcons 17


Eagles @ Bills
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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Speaking of birds, the Eagles will look to bounce back from a Sunday night loss in Dallas when they travel to Buffalo Sunday. This one could go in either team's favor, but I'll ride with the power of the Bills Mafia at home. No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.

Spread: BUF -1.5  O/U: Under 43.5

Prediction: Bills 21, Eagles 17


Chargers @ Bears
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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Da Bears looked reeeaaaal ugly last Sunday against New Orleans. Luckily for them, they host the Chargers this week. L.A. found a way to lose against Tennessee last week when Melvin Gordon fumbled at the goal line. I think the Bolts will find another way to lose this week in Chicago.

Spread: CHI -4  O/U: Over 41

Prediction: Bears 27, Chargers 20


Giants @ Lions
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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After a controversial loss to the Packers, I thought Detroit would bounce back last Sunday at home against the Vikings. I was wrong. But I do think the Lions will bounce back this week, as they host the Giants, who have lost their last three games.

Spread: DET -7  O/U: Over 49.5

Prediction: Lions 30, Giants 21


Buccaneers @ Titans
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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The Titans were lucky to escape with a victory last week. This week, they face jittery Jameis Winston and the Bucs. If Jameis plays like he did in London two weeks ago (where he threw five picks), there is no way Tampa wins. I think he'll just barely play well enough to not lose. 

Spread: TB +2.5  O/U: Over 45.5

Prediction: Buccaneers 25, Titans 21


Broncos @ Colts
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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Joe Flacco looked worse than Matt Moore last Thursday during Denver's loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Colts overtook first place in the AFC South, and I think they are currently, at worst, the seventh-best team in the NFL. Indianapolis should breeze by the Broncos Sunday.

Spread: IND -5.5  O/U: Under 43 

Prediction: Colts 28, Broncos 13


Bengals vs. Rams
(London, 1:00 PM, CBS)

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The race for the first overall pick in next year's draft is a heated one, and it might come down to a big Bengals-Dolphins matchup in Week 16. I think winless Cincinnati will keep pace with winless Miami this week, as the Rams should roll in England. Tally-ho!

Spread: LAR -13  O/U: Under 48

Prediction: Rams 31, Bengals 14


Cardinals @ Saints
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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Don't look now, but the Cardinals have won three straight to get to .500. Don't look now, but the Saints have won five straight with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. You can look now. Considering Arizona's three wins came against the Bengals, Falcons and Giants, I'll take New Orleans in this one.

Spread: ARI +10.5  O/U: Over 48

Prediction: Saints 28, Cardinals 21


Jets @ Jaguars
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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Hopefully, Sam Darnold won't be seeing as many ghosts when the Jets travel to Jacksonville Sunday. The Jags won last week, but Minshew Mania has faded a bit. There should be more mania surrounding Leonard Fournette, although I think Le'Veon Bell and the Jets will escape with the win.

Spread: NYJ +6.5  O/U: Over 41

Prediction: Jets 24, Jaguars 21


Panthers @ 49ers
(4:05 PM, FOX)

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This may be the most compelling contest on the slate. The Panthers have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey, but the undefeated 49ers have a ferocious defense. I've heard that offense wins games but defense wins championships. I think San Francisco's defense wins this game.

Spread: SF -5.5  O/U: Under 42

Prediction: 49ers 24, Panthers 17


Browns @ Patriots
(4:25 PM, CBS)

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I enjoyed last week because I didn't have to watch the Browns be the Browns. Alas, they're back this week, and they play the best team in football. I do think Cleveland will make this surprisingly close, but I'm not about to pick against the Patriots. 

Spread: CLE +13  O/U: Over 45.5

Prediction: Patriots 31, Browns 23


Raiders @ Texans
(4:25 PM, CBS)

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Both Oakland and Houston will be looking for bounce-back performances Sunday. The Texans fought hard, but relinquished first-place in the division to Indy. The Raiders got burnt by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I'll take host Houston to get back in the win column here.

Spread: OAK +7  O/U: Under 51.5

Prediction: Texans 27, Raiders 24


Packers @ Chiefs
(8:20 PM, NBC)

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Apparently, Patrick Mahomes is already back at practice despite a messed-up kneecap, and he has yet to be ruled out for this game. Obviously, his availability will play a key role in the outcome. I'm going to take the safe bet and pick Aaron squared and the Packers.

Spread: GB -3.5  O/U: Over 48

Prediction: Packers 32, Chiefs 24


Monday

Dolphins @ Steelers
(8:15 PM, ESPN)

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What a Monday night matchup we have this week! I can't wait to see this quarterback showdown between Devlin Hodges (who is apparently the king of Dave & Buster's) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (who went to Harvard). I'll take the buck/duck hunter over the Ivy League graduate.

Spread: MIA +14  O/U: Over 43

Prediction: Steelers 28, Dolphins 17


Last Week: 11-3  vs. Spread: 7-7  Over/Under: 4-9-1
Season: 63-42-1  vs. Spread: 43-62-1  Over/Under: 44-58-4



My Week 8 Daily Fantasy Lineup

QB: Deshaun Watson, Texans (vs OAK)

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Aaron Rodgers tore up the Oakland defense last week, throwing for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Watson, who also has thrown five touchdown passes in a game this season (against Atlanta), gets that defense this week. I also considered Rodgers against Kansas City.


RB: Aaron Jones, Packers (@ KC)

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The second-most famous Aaron on the Green Bay offense is having a great year. He has found the endzone in every game but the first one. I think he'll find the endzone again this week against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Leonard Fournette vs. the Jets is also a solid option.


RB: Chris Carson, Seahawks (@ ATL)

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Carson was quieted by Baltimore last week, but I think he'll bounce back in Atlanta. The Seahawks should be able to run all over the Falcon defense in a game that probably won't be very close. If you can afford him, Saquon Barkley is also a strong choice.


WR: Tyrell Williams, Raiders (@ HOU)

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Williams is trending toward returning this week after missing two games due to injury. He has scored a touchdown in each of the four games he has played in. If he returns this week, I can see him getting into the endzone again. If Williams doesn't play, I might go with Courtland Sutton vs. Indy.

WR: John Brown (vs. PHI)

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The Philadelphia secondary has been less than stellar this season, setting up a strong matchup for Buffalo's number one receiver. Brown's lowest yard total in a game this season is 51. He'll surpass that this week. With Adam Theilen out, Olabisi Johnson vs. Washington is another consideration.


WR: Kenny Golladay, Lions (vs. NYG)

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Detroit's top receiver was almost nonexistent against Minnesota last week, but that's likely an anomaly. Golladay has been targeted at least eight times in each of his other five games this season. Depending on Devante Adam's status, Marquez Valdes-Scantling should get a look vs. the Chiefs.


TE: Austin Hooper, Falcons (vs. SEA)

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Although most of the team has been a complete mess this season, Austin Hooper has been a consistent producer for the Falcons. On FanDuel, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game but one. I also considered Josh Hill vs. Arizona if Jared Cook is unable to go.


FLEX: Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (@ NO)

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Edmonds went off last week, and it appears as though he'll get the bulk of the work again this week, with David Johnson still nursing an injury. If he even comes within the same stratosphere of last week's production, he's a good pick. You could also look at James White vs. Cleveland.


DEF: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. MIA)

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The Pittsburgh defense has been quite strong, aside from its first-week loss against New England. Monday, the Steelers host the winless Dolphins. That's about as good of a matchup as you can get. I also considered Tennessee's defense against the Buccaneers.


Stats and info via ESPN.com, YouTube.com, OddsShark.com, BleacherReport.com, CBSSports.com, USAToday.com, and Forbes.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thursday afternoon 

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

NFL 2019: Week 7

Officiating is a common subject of complaint among sports fans. Everybody who follows sports has bemoaned a missed call (or made call that they disagreed with) at some point in their life. It's a part of sports fandom, and, since humans are imperfect, it's a part of sports. But lately, NFL officiating has been an especially hot topic. This week, at least three games featured questionable officiating decisions that had major impacts.


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  • Seattle-Cleveland - I watched the entire Browns-Seahawks game on Sunday, and I think other people who watched the whole contest would agree with me when I say it was not the best day for the rookie officiating crew. I witnessed one of the worst calls I have ever seen when Browns receiver Jarvis Landry was called for a blindside block, negating a big play for Cleveland. The replay showed that it was clearly not a blindside block. In fact, the Seattle defender was actually the one who initiated the contact. Later in the game, the Seahawks sealed the win with a third-down conversion that looked like an incomplete pass, but Freddie Kitchens couldn't challenge it, since he lost a challenge on a play earlier in the game that looked like a touchdown, but was not called a touchdown. The Browns didn't completely blame the referees for losing, but several players, including Baker Mayfield, mentioned the poor officiating.

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  • Houston-Kansas City - The Texans held on to beat Kansas City on Sunday, but they might have gotten some assistance from the officials. In the second quarter, Patrick Mahomes threw a pass that was intercepted in the endzone. He thought he had a free play, because he had seen one of his receivers get tackled. But the officials did not throw a flag. Prior to the Sunday night game, NBC did a whole segment about the play. Despite instituting a new rule allowing challenges of the penalty, the NFL still has a major pass interference problem.

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  • Detroit-Green Bay - The final game of the week was also marred by questionable officiating. As the Packers were driving down the field in the fourth quarter, the Lions got a sack of Aaron Rodgers on third down. However, a referee threw a flag on the play, and Lions defensive end Trey Flowers was called for a hands to the face penalty. Upon further inspection, it appeared as though Flowers never touched the face of the offensive lineman, instead pushing up toward his neck area, which is not illegal. A few plays later, Green Bay scored a touchdown. But that was just the first of two impactful hands to the face penalties that went against Trey Flowers. With under two minutes remaining, the Packers were once again driving, this time down by one. On third down, Detroit appeared to stop Green Bay. But again, a flag was thrown against Flowers for hands to the face. And again, it appeared that Flowers did not commit a penalty. The Packers ended up winning on a last-second field goal. Many people watched the primetime game, and many people were outraged. The NFL even later admitted that one of the penalties should not have been called.
Officiating is not an easy job. A lot of it involves making snap-judgement decisions in front of thousands of ruthless fans. Officials are often made scapegoats. Yes, missed calls happen, and they sometimes have a large impact on a certain team. But the Browns turned the ball over four times on Sunday, the Chiefs couldn't stop the Houston offense, and the Lions blew an early lead Monday night. With that being said, NFL officiating does not look good right now. It will never be perfect, but it should be a whole lot better. 


Week 5 Superlatives

Best Performance: Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings (7 catches, 167 yards, 3 TD)


The recent rumblings about Diggs possibly wanting out of Minnesota now seem like ancient tales after he tore up the Philadelphia defense Sunday in a 38-20 Vikings victory.


Best Play: Christian McCaffrey Undresses the Buccaneers


CMC had a bloody good time in London on Sunday, scoring two touchdowns in a 37-26 win over Tampa, including this 15-yard one that involved him putting multiple Buc defenders on skates.


Best Tweet: The Pope Endorses the Saints


On Sunday morning, Pope Francis published a tweet thanking all of the new Catholic saints. Unfortunately (or, if you're a fan of unintentional comedy, fortunately), he hashtagged "Saints", which automatically inserted the NFL team's logo. With God on their side, the Saints won.



Week 7 Games

Thursday

Chiefs @ Broncos
(8:20 PM, FOX/NFL)

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I would like the apologize to Joe Flacco, the Denver Broncos, and the entire state of Colorado for prematurely pronouncing the Broncos' season dead. They've won their last two games. The Chiefs have lost their last two games. Despite that, I think Kansas City wins. I'm not sorry for that.

Spread: KC -3  Over/Under: 48

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20


Sunday

Rams @ Falcons
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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This game features two teams looking to stop lengthy losing skids. After winning their first three games, the Rams have dropped their last three, while the Falcons have fallen in four straight games. I think the Rams get back on track and give Atlanta another loss Sunday.

Spread: LAR -3  Over/Under: 54.5

Prediction: Rams 32, Falcons 24


Dolphins @ Bills
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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The Dolphins came oh so close to actually winning last week, but their attempt to go for two and the win failed (meaning things went according to plan). Washington was probably Miami's best chance at a victory. It probably won't come down to a two-point conversion attempt in Buffalo.

Spread: BUF -17  Over/Under: 40.5

Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 13


Jaguars @ Bengals
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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In case you didn't hear, the Jaguars traded star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Rams on Wednesday, ending weeks of speculation. In return, they received multiple first round draft picks. They don't need Ramsey or draft picks to beat the hapless Bengals on Sunday.

Spread: JAC -3.5  Over/Under: 44

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Bengals 17


Vikings @ Lions
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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After Detroit's heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and the officials the Packers Monday night, the Lions will try to bounce back against Minnesota on Sunday. The 2-2-1 Lions almost beat Kansas City and Green Bay, and I think they will beat the Vikings.

Spread: MIN -1  Over/Under: 45.5

Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 23


Raiders @ Packers
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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Speaking of Green Bay, the 5-1 Packers host an Oakland team fresh off a bye. This should be a tightly-contested game. The Raiders will fight until the end, but I think the Packers will scratch out another win to improve to 6-1.

Spread: GB -5.5  Over/Under: 47

Prediction: Packers 24, Raiders 21


Texans @ Colts
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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This is arguably the most intriguing 1:00 matchup this week. The Colts beat Kansas City two weeks ago, then the Texans beat Kansas City last week. I don't know which way to go in this one, so I'll go with the home team.

Spread: IND -1  Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction: Colts 24, Texans 21


Cardinals @ Giants
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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The Cardinals held on to beat the Falcons last week, while the Giants gave New England its toughest test of the season thus far last Thursday. In this battle of the first two quarterbacks drafted this year, I think Danny Dimes and the host Giants get the win.

Spread: NYG -3  Over/Under: 50

Prediction: Giants 32, Cardinals 28


49ers @ Redskins
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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Washington is unbeaten under interim head coach Bill Callahan. Yes, it has only been one game, and that one game was against the worst team of the 21st Century, but facts are facts. Callahan will likely suffer his first loss as head coach this week against the red-hot Niners.

Spread: SF -9.5  Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction: 49ers 28, Redskins 17


Chargers @ Titans
(4:05 PM, CBS)

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When a team turns to Ryan Tannehill to fix things, you know things are not going well. The Titans are benching former #2 overall pick Marcus Mariota for Tannehill this Sunday. I think Tennessee will win, but not because of the quarterback.

Spread: TEN -2  Over/Under: 40

Prediction: Titans 20, Chargers 17


Saints @ Bears
(4:25 PM, FOX)

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It's currently unclear whether God has the Saints this week, as they travel to Chicago to face a Bears team coming off a bye. This will likely be a close, low-scoring game, which is usually Chicago's specialty, but I'll take New Orleans in this one.

Spread: CHI -3  Over/Under: 38

Prediction: Saints 23, Bears 21


Ravens @ Seahawks
(4:25 PM, FOX)

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The Seahawks continue their conquest of the AFC North on Sunday, when they host the division-leading Ravens. The Browns gave Seattle some challenges last week, and I think Baltimore will too, but I think the Hawks will once again emerge victorious.

Spread: SEA -3.5  Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Ravens 27


Eagles @ Cowboys
(8:20 PM, NBC)

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So, how bout 'dem Cowboys? Yeah, things are not going well in Dallas after a hot start. The Boys gave the Jets their first win of the season last week, and they'll try to end a three-game losing skid against Philadelphia. I'll take the host Cowboys in a close one.

Spread: DAL -3  Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23


Monday

Patriots @ Jets
(8:15 PM, ESPN)

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Well, the good news is that this game should be a lot more interesting than the last meeting between these two teams (a 30-14 Patriots win in Week 3), since Sam Darnold will be playing this time, but I still expect New England to win.

Spread: NE -9.5  Over/Under: 42.5

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 20


Last Week: 6-8  vs. Spread: 4-10  Over/Under: 4-8-2
Season: 52-39-1  vs. Spread: 36-55-1  Over/Under: 40-49-3



My Week 7 Daily Fantasy Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray, Cardinals (@ NYG)

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The rookie first overall pick has had a solid fantasy season thus far, finding the end zone at least once in every game but one. His running ability is an added bonus. After throwing three touchdown passes against Atlanta last week, Murray could be in for another big week against the Giants. I also considered his counterpart, Daniel Jones.


RB: Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (@ CIN)

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For all the buzz that Gardner Minshew has gotten, Fournette has actually been the engine that runs the Jacksonville offense. He has over 25 touches and 100 total yards in each of his last three games, and now he faces a Bengals rush defense that yielded over 250 rushing yards to Baltimore last week. I also considered Denver's Phillip Lindsay against Kansas City.


RB: Frank Gore, Bills (vs. MIA)

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The Gore, who will probably still be on an NFL roster when the planet goes up in flames and life as we know it ceases to exist, has at least 14 carries and 60 yards in each of his last four games. This week, he goes up against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. I also considered teammate Devin Singletary against the Dolphins.


WR: Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ ATL)

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Before last week's dud against San Francisco, Cupp had three straight games of double-digit targets and triple-digit receiving yards. I think he'll get back to those numbers against Atlanta's porous pass defense. I also considered Detroit's Kenny Golladay against Minnesota.


WR: Adam Thielen, Vikings (@ DET)

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The week before Stefon Diggs went off, Thielen had 130 yards and two touchdowns. Now it's Adam's turn again. Even with most of the touchdowns going to Diggs last week, Thielen still found the endzone once. I also considered Diggs.


WR: Tyler Boyd, Bengals (vs. JAC)

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Boyd was quieted by Marlon Humphrey, but this week, Cincinnati plays a Jaguar team without Jalen Ramsey. Just the week before last, Boyd had 10 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown. I expect numbers closer to those this week. I also might look at Dallas' Michael Gallup vs. the Eagles.


TE: Hunter Henry, Chargers (@ TEN)

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When healthy, Henry has been productive, including last week, when he caught eight passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He may not put up those numbers again this week, but he is definitely back on the fantasy radar. I also considered George Kittle, but went with a less expensive option.


FLEX: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (@ GB)

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After a huge game against the Bears, Jacobs comes off a bye week with a matchup against a Green Bay team that ranks among the league's worst in rush defense. If he can run for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's defense, he can do it against Green Bay. I also considered Chicago's Allen Robinson II against New Orleans.


DEF: Buffalo Bills (vs MIA)

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The Bills have a very good defense, but more importantly, they're playing the Dolphins.


Stats and info via ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, Twitter.com, CBSSports.com, and USAToday.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Wednesday evening