Wednesday, October 16, 2019

NFL 2019: Week 7

Officiating is a common subject of complaint among sports fans. Everybody who follows sports has bemoaned a missed call (or made call that they disagreed with) at some point in their life. It's a part of sports fandom, and, since humans are imperfect, it's a part of sports. But lately, NFL officiating has been an especially hot topic. This week, at least three games featured questionable officiating decisions that had major impacts.


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  • Seattle-Cleveland - I watched the entire Browns-Seahawks game on Sunday, and I think other people who watched the whole contest would agree with me when I say it was not the best day for the rookie officiating crew. I witnessed one of the worst calls I have ever seen when Browns receiver Jarvis Landry was called for a blindside block, negating a big play for Cleveland. The replay showed that it was clearly not a blindside block. In fact, the Seattle defender was actually the one who initiated the contact. Later in the game, the Seahawks sealed the win with a third-down conversion that looked like an incomplete pass, but Freddie Kitchens couldn't challenge it, since he lost a challenge on a play earlier in the game that looked like a touchdown, but was not called a touchdown. The Browns didn't completely blame the referees for losing, but several players, including Baker Mayfield, mentioned the poor officiating.

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  • Houston-Kansas City - The Texans held on to beat Kansas City on Sunday, but they might have gotten some assistance from the officials. In the second quarter, Patrick Mahomes threw a pass that was intercepted in the endzone. He thought he had a free play, because he had seen one of his receivers get tackled. But the officials did not throw a flag. Prior to the Sunday night game, NBC did a whole segment about the play. Despite instituting a new rule allowing challenges of the penalty, the NFL still has a major pass interference problem.

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  • Detroit-Green Bay - The final game of the week was also marred by questionable officiating. As the Packers were driving down the field in the fourth quarter, the Lions got a sack of Aaron Rodgers on third down. However, a referee threw a flag on the play, and Lions defensive end Trey Flowers was called for a hands to the face penalty. Upon further inspection, it appeared as though Flowers never touched the face of the offensive lineman, instead pushing up toward his neck area, which is not illegal. A few plays later, Green Bay scored a touchdown. But that was just the first of two impactful hands to the face penalties that went against Trey Flowers. With under two minutes remaining, the Packers were once again driving, this time down by one. On third down, Detroit appeared to stop Green Bay. But again, a flag was thrown against Flowers for hands to the face. And again, it appeared that Flowers did not commit a penalty. The Packers ended up winning on a last-second field goal. Many people watched the primetime game, and many people were outraged. The NFL even later admitted that one of the penalties should not have been called.
Officiating is not an easy job. A lot of it involves making snap-judgement decisions in front of thousands of ruthless fans. Officials are often made scapegoats. Yes, missed calls happen, and they sometimes have a large impact on a certain team. But the Browns turned the ball over four times on Sunday, the Chiefs couldn't stop the Houston offense, and the Lions blew an early lead Monday night. With that being said, NFL officiating does not look good right now. It will never be perfect, but it should be a whole lot better. 


Week 5 Superlatives

Best Performance: Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings (7 catches, 167 yards, 3 TD)


The recent rumblings about Diggs possibly wanting out of Minnesota now seem like ancient tales after he tore up the Philadelphia defense Sunday in a 38-20 Vikings victory.


Best Play: Christian McCaffrey Undresses the Buccaneers


CMC had a bloody good time in London on Sunday, scoring two touchdowns in a 37-26 win over Tampa, including this 15-yard one that involved him putting multiple Buc defenders on skates.


Best Tweet: The Pope Endorses the Saints


On Sunday morning, Pope Francis published a tweet thanking all of the new Catholic saints. Unfortunately (or, if you're a fan of unintentional comedy, fortunately), he hashtagged "Saints", which automatically inserted the NFL team's logo. With God on their side, the Saints won.



Week 7 Games

Thursday

Chiefs @ Broncos
(8:20 PM, FOX/NFL)

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I would like the apologize to Joe Flacco, the Denver Broncos, and the entire state of Colorado for prematurely pronouncing the Broncos' season dead. They've won their last two games. The Chiefs have lost their last two games. Despite that, I think Kansas City wins. I'm not sorry for that.

Spread: KC -3  Over/Under: 48

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20


Sunday

Rams @ Falcons
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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This game features two teams looking to stop lengthy losing skids. After winning their first three games, the Rams have dropped their last three, while the Falcons have fallen in four straight games. I think the Rams get back on track and give Atlanta another loss Sunday.

Spread: LAR -3  Over/Under: 54.5

Prediction: Rams 32, Falcons 24


Dolphins @ Bills
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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The Dolphins came oh so close to actually winning last week, but their attempt to go for two and the win failed (meaning things went according to plan). Washington was probably Miami's best chance at a victory. It probably won't come down to a two-point conversion attempt in Buffalo.

Spread: BUF -17  Over/Under: 40.5

Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 13


Jaguars @ Bengals
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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In case you didn't hear, the Jaguars traded star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Rams on Wednesday, ending weeks of speculation. In return, they received multiple first round draft picks. They don't need Ramsey or draft picks to beat the hapless Bengals on Sunday.

Spread: JAC -3.5  Over/Under: 44

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Bengals 17


Vikings @ Lions
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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After Detroit's heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and the officials the Packers Monday night, the Lions will try to bounce back against Minnesota on Sunday. The 2-2-1 Lions almost beat Kansas City and Green Bay, and I think they will beat the Vikings.

Spread: MIN -1  Over/Under: 45.5

Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 23


Raiders @ Packers
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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Speaking of Green Bay, the 5-1 Packers host an Oakland team fresh off a bye. This should be a tightly-contested game. The Raiders will fight until the end, but I think the Packers will scratch out another win to improve to 6-1.

Spread: GB -5.5  Over/Under: 47

Prediction: Packers 24, Raiders 21


Texans @ Colts
(1:00 PM, CBS)

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This is arguably the most intriguing 1:00 matchup this week. The Colts beat Kansas City two weeks ago, then the Texans beat Kansas City last week. I don't know which way to go in this one, so I'll go with the home team.

Spread: IND -1  Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction: Colts 24, Texans 21


Cardinals @ Giants
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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The Cardinals held on to beat the Falcons last week, while the Giants gave New England its toughest test of the season thus far last Thursday. In this battle of the first two quarterbacks drafted this year, I think Danny Dimes and the host Giants get the win.

Spread: NYG -3  Over/Under: 50

Prediction: Giants 32, Cardinals 28


49ers @ Redskins
(1:00 PM, FOX)

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Washington is unbeaten under interim head coach Bill Callahan. Yes, it has only been one game, and that one game was against the worst team of the 21st Century, but facts are facts. Callahan will likely suffer his first loss as head coach this week against the red-hot Niners.

Spread: SF -9.5  Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction: 49ers 28, Redskins 17


Chargers @ Titans
(4:05 PM, CBS)

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When a team turns to Ryan Tannehill to fix things, you know things are not going well. The Titans are benching former #2 overall pick Marcus Mariota for Tannehill this Sunday. I think Tennessee will win, but not because of the quarterback.

Spread: TEN -2  Over/Under: 40

Prediction: Titans 20, Chargers 17


Saints @ Bears
(4:25 PM, FOX)

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It's currently unclear whether God has the Saints this week, as they travel to Chicago to face a Bears team coming off a bye. This will likely be a close, low-scoring game, which is usually Chicago's specialty, but I'll take New Orleans in this one.

Spread: CHI -3  Over/Under: 38

Prediction: Saints 23, Bears 21


Ravens @ Seahawks
(4:25 PM, FOX)

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The Seahawks continue their conquest of the AFC North on Sunday, when they host the division-leading Ravens. The Browns gave Seattle some challenges last week, and I think Baltimore will too, but I think the Hawks will once again emerge victorious.

Spread: SEA -3.5  Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Ravens 27


Eagles @ Cowboys
(8:20 PM, NBC)

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So, how bout 'dem Cowboys? Yeah, things are not going well in Dallas after a hot start. The Boys gave the Jets their first win of the season last week, and they'll try to end a three-game losing skid against Philadelphia. I'll take the host Cowboys in a close one.

Spread: DAL -3  Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23


Monday

Patriots @ Jets
(8:15 PM, ESPN)

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Well, the good news is that this game should be a lot more interesting than the last meeting between these two teams (a 30-14 Patriots win in Week 3), since Sam Darnold will be playing this time, but I still expect New England to win.

Spread: NE -9.5  Over/Under: 42.5

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 20


Last Week: 6-8  vs. Spread: 4-10  Over/Under: 4-8-2
Season: 52-39-1  vs. Spread: 36-55-1  Over/Under: 40-49-3



My Week 7 Daily Fantasy Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray, Cardinals (@ NYG)

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The rookie first overall pick has had a solid fantasy season thus far, finding the end zone at least once in every game but one. His running ability is an added bonus. After throwing three touchdown passes against Atlanta last week, Murray could be in for another big week against the Giants. I also considered his counterpart, Daniel Jones.


RB: Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (@ CIN)

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For all the buzz that Gardner Minshew has gotten, Fournette has actually been the engine that runs the Jacksonville offense. He has over 25 touches and 100 total yards in each of his last three games, and now he faces a Bengals rush defense that yielded over 250 rushing yards to Baltimore last week. I also considered Denver's Phillip Lindsay against Kansas City.


RB: Frank Gore, Bills (vs. MIA)

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The Gore, who will probably still be on an NFL roster when the planet goes up in flames and life as we know it ceases to exist, has at least 14 carries and 60 yards in each of his last four games. This week, he goes up against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. I also considered teammate Devin Singletary against the Dolphins.


WR: Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ ATL)

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Before last week's dud against San Francisco, Cupp had three straight games of double-digit targets and triple-digit receiving yards. I think he'll get back to those numbers against Atlanta's porous pass defense. I also considered Detroit's Kenny Golladay against Minnesota.


WR: Adam Thielen, Vikings (@ DET)

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The week before Stefon Diggs went off, Thielen had 130 yards and two touchdowns. Now it's Adam's turn again. Even with most of the touchdowns going to Diggs last week, Thielen still found the endzone once. I also considered Diggs.


WR: Tyler Boyd, Bengals (vs. JAC)

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Boyd was quieted by Marlon Humphrey, but this week, Cincinnati plays a Jaguar team without Jalen Ramsey. Just the week before last, Boyd had 10 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown. I expect numbers closer to those this week. I also might look at Dallas' Michael Gallup vs. the Eagles.


TE: Hunter Henry, Chargers (@ TEN)

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When healthy, Henry has been productive, including last week, when he caught eight passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He may not put up those numbers again this week, but he is definitely back on the fantasy radar. I also considered George Kittle, but went with a less expensive option.


FLEX: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (@ GB)

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After a huge game against the Bears, Jacobs comes off a bye week with a matchup against a Green Bay team that ranks among the league's worst in rush defense. If he can run for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's defense, he can do it against Green Bay. I also considered Chicago's Allen Robinson II against New Orleans.


DEF: Buffalo Bills (vs MIA)

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The Bills have a very good defense, but more importantly, they're playing the Dolphins.


Stats and info via ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, Twitter.com, CBSSports.com, and USAToday.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Wednesday evening

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