NFL 2019: Week 5

We have reached the quarter mark of the 2019 NFL season. Journalists and talking heads like to use this as a checkpoint to assess the league landscape through four weeks and try to discern potential playoff contenders from contenders for the #1 pick. Although it is still too early to gauge some teams, there are a few whose 2019 fate I feel pretty confident about.

Teams to Beat

A lot of teams sit on the fence at this juncture, but these teams are squarely on the "Super Bowl contender" side of the fence.

via chowderandchampions.com

• New England Patriots - This isn't a surprise. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been ruling the league for almost two decades now, and it doesn't look like this is the year the empire crumbles. New England has dominated through four games, although three of those games came against the 1-3 Steelers, 0-4 Dolphins and 0-3 Jets. The New England defense had not given up a touchdown until this past Sunday, propelling the Pats to an unbeaten start. The unbeaten streak might continue for awhile, as their next three games come against the winless Redskins and the two lesser New York teams (the Giants, then the Jets).

via arrowheadpride.com

• Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes' first start in a dome didn't go as well as anticipated, but the Chiefs still held on to top the pesky Lions last weekend. Kansas City's only competition within the AFC West this season appears to be the Chargers, who haven't looked great thus far. There are still three more quarters of the season to go, but it currently looks like the Patriots and Chiefs will meet in the AFC Championship. These are clearly the top two teams in the AFC, and it seems that there is a clear drop from these two to the rest of the conference.

via sportdfw.com

• Dallas Cowboys - Despite a home loss to New Orleans Sunday night, the Cowboys should still be viewed as NFC favorites (alongside the team they just lost to). The defense has allowed just 14 points per game (third in the NFL), while the star-studded offense (which also ranks third in the NFL) has been purring thus far, aside from the 10-point output in New Orleans.

via canalstreetchronicles.com

• New Orleans Saints - The team that beat Dallas Sunday night has shown that it has enough fire power to win while Drew Brees is on the mend. Teddy Bridgewater and the well-stocked offense has done enough to beat Seattle and Dallas, and the defense put on a very strong performance on Sunday Night Football. Aside from a Week 2 loss to the Rams, the Saints look like a Super Bowl contender again this year.

Teams to Bury

Stick a fork in 'em, put the "done chain" on 'em, whatever you want to say, these teams aren't contending for anything but a top pick.

via chicagotribune.com

• Miami Dolphins - I feel pretty confident in saying that the Dolphins will probably not be playing in January. The Miami front office is blatantly tanking for a top quarterback in next year's draft. Miami has a point differential of -137 through four games, and the team ranks 31st in total offense and 32nd in total defense. Amazingly, the Dolphins showed some life last week, leading the Chargers early in a game they would end up losing by 20.

via wtop.com

• Washington Redskins - The 2019 Redskins are best summarized by The Ringer's Kevin Clark, who tweeted, "The difference between the Dolphins and Redskins is that the Redskins don't mean to do this." Washington continues to look like a poorly-run franchise. Case Keenum was benched for rookie Dwayne Haskins at halftime against the Giants on Sunday, and Haskins proceeded to throw three picks in a blowout loss. It was a curious decision by Jay Gruden, who probably should've waited to give the 15th overall pick a week of preparation before throwing him in the fire. If I were Gruden, I'd give the rest of the season to the rookie to develop.

via cincyjungle.com

• Cincinnati Bengals - I feel for Cincinnati sports fans. I saw a list of the teams from the four major American sports leagues (NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB) with the longest active postseason winless streaks, and two of the top five were Cincinnati teams (the Reds and Bengals). If Cincy had any other major pro sports teams, they'd probably be on that list too. The Bengals are so bad right now that they got blown out by Mason Rudolph and the Steelers Monday night.

via bigcatcountry.com

• Denver Broncos - To be fair to the Broncos, two of their four losses came in the most devastating fashion imaginable; game-winning field goals as time expired. This team is soooo close to 2-2. However, I still don't think this is a good team, because I refuse to call a team quarterbacked by the ghost of Joe Flacco "good". The defense took a hit this week, too, with the loss of edge rusher Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury.

Week 4 Superlatives

Best Performance: Nick Chubb, RB, Browns (20 carries, 165 yards, 3 TD)

Chubb showed his strength and his speed in a blowout win over Baltimore, breaking tackles on touchdown runs of two yards and 14 yards, then reaching the highest speed by a ball-carrier this season on an 88-yard touchdown run that put a nail in the Ravens' coffin.

Best Play: Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew 7-yard TD pass to Ryquell Armstead

Is Gardner Minshew real, or is this some type of shared delusion? Minshew led Jacksonville to a come-from-behind victory Sunday, which included this little bit of magic in which he evaded multiple people in the pocket and found an open man in the end zone.

via aol.com

Best Quote: "His name is 'Jockstrap King'... He's stronger than you think. I don't know if the mustache gives him power or not."  - Leonard Fournette, Jaguars RB

Fournette had some praise for his quarterback after the win on Sunday, while also mentioning Minshew's famous facial hair and habit of stretching in the locker room in just a jockstrap.

Week 5 Games

Thursday

Rams @ Seahawks

(8:20 PM, FOX/NFL)

via cbssports.com

The Rams lost a weird and wild one to Tampa on Sunday. Jared Goff threw for 517 yards, but also turned the ball over four times in a 15-point loss to the Bucs. Goff has historically struggled on the road, so I'm predicting Clowney and the Seahawks to give L.A. a second straight loss Thursday.

Spread: SEA -1.5   Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 21

Sunday

Cardinals @ Bengals

(1:00 PM, FOX)

via azcentral.com

There are 10 games at 1:00 this week, and this might be the worst of the lot. Somebody will get their first win on Sunday (unless, of course, they tie), and I have a lot more faith in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals than Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who just lost John Ross to the Injured Reserve.

Spread: CIN -3   Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Bengals 20

Bills @ Titans

(1:00 PM, CBS)

via si.com

The Titans do a good job of looking impressive when people are doubting them, then going back to looking like a average/below-average team afterward. Tennessee beat the Falcons by two touchdowns last week, so that means Frank Gore and the Bills will probably win this week.

Spread: TEN -3   Over/Under: 38.5

Prediction: Bills 20, Titans 17

Bears @ Raiders

(London, England,1:00 PM, FOX)

via boston.cbslocal.com

The Chicago offence actually looked better with Chase Daniel at quarterback than they did with Mitch Trubisky at QB. Trubisky, the poor lad, is injured, but won't matter, because the Bears defence (which features former Raider Khalil Mack) is bloody terrifying. Oakland winning? Bollocks!

Spread: CHI -5.5   Over/Under: 40.5

Prediction: Bears 24, Raiders 13

Buccaneers @ Saints

(1:00 PM, FOX)

via rantsports.com

The Saints defended their home field against the previously unbeaten Cowboys last Sunday, while the Bucs scored a big win over the previously unbeaten Rams. If Jameis Winston plays like he did last week, Tampa Bay can win, but I feel like a New Orleans home victory is more likely.

Spread: NO -3   Over/Under: 46.5

Prediction: Saints 28, Buccaneers 24

Vikings @ Giants

(1:00 PM, FOX)

via fantraxhq.com

This is a tale of two opposites right now. In New York, the rookie quarterback has taken the world by storm, leading the Giants to two straight wins. In Minnesota, the quarterback is apologizing for not being good enough. Despite that, I think the Vikings will win on the back of Dalvin Cook.

Spread: MIN -5.5  Over/Under: 43.5

Prediction: Vikings 27, Giants 17

Jets @ Eagles

(1:00 PM, CBS)

via ydr.com

The Eagles got a big win last Thursday night over Green Bay, and they seem to be trending in the right direction. Speaking of trending in the right direction, Sam Darnold returned to practice this week, but he still isn't cleared for contact. Philadelphia should have little trouble at home on Sunday.

Spread: PHI -13.5   Over/Under: 44

Prediction: Eagles 28, Jets 14

Ravens @ Steelers

(1:00 PM, CBS)

via baltimore.cbslocal.com

For the first time in five years, Cleveland sits atop the AFC North. Behind the Browns are these two teams. Marlon Humphrey and the Ravens will look to bounce back after a home loss to the Browns, while Pittsburgh will look to build off its first win. Baltimore is clearly the better team.

Spread: BAL -3.5  Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Ravens 28, Steelers 21

Patriots @ Redskins

(1:00 PM, CBS)

via wivb.com

Each of the first four teams New England has played this season have had to play their backup quarterback at some point due to injury or performance. That streak will stretch to five when the Pats play struggling Washington. It won't matter who starts at QB for the 'Skins this weekend.

Spread: NE -15.5   Over/Under: 42.5

Prediction: Patriots 30, Redskins 14

Jaguars @ Panthers

(1:00 PM, CBS)

via panthers.com

This matchup is an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object, as Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen, who have both won their last two games, face off. Each team will likely lean more on their star running backs, and I'll take Christian McCaffrey over Leonard Fournette.

Spread: CAR -3.5   Over/Under: 41

Prediction: Panthers 24, Jaguars 18 

Falcons @ Texans

(1:00 PM, FOX)

via cbssports.com

The Falcons are broken. They are a fourth down conversion away from being 0-4. Dan Quinn has to be looking over his shoulder. Even against a Houston offense that still can't protect Deshaun Watson, I can't put my trust in this Falcons team.

Spread: HOU -5  Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Texans 27, Falcons 24

Broncos @ Chargers

(4:05 PM, CBS)

via sandiegouniontribune.com

There are just two late-afternoon games Sunday, and this is the duller one (on paper). The Broncos are still searching for their first win against a Chargers team searching for consistency. Melvin Gordon will see his first game action Sunday in what will likely be a Charger win.

Spread: LAC -6.5   Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Chargers 28, Broncos 14

Packers @ Cowboys

(4:25 PM, FOX)

via insidethestar.com

This battle of 3-1 teams is the main event Sunday evening. Both the Packers and Cowboys are coming off of last-minute losses in primetime. I think Dak and Dallas will bounce back with a home win over Green Bay.

Spread: DAL -3.5   Over/Under: 47

Prediction: Cowboys 26, Packers 20

Colts @ Chiefs

(8:20 PM, NBC)

via chiefs.com

I finally pick the Colts to win, and they lose to the Raiders. I do think that was an anomaly for Indianapolis, and I think the Colts have the ability to beat Kansas City. However, I'm going to go back to picking against Indy this week.

Spread: KC -11   Over/Under: 56.5

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Colts 24

Monday

Browns @ 49ers

(8:15 PM, ESPN)

via si.com

After three rough weeks from the Cleveland offense, Freddie Kitchens went back to what got him the job last week. He used a lot more 12 personnel (two tight ends, one back), called more creative plays, and leaned more on the run game. If that continues Monday, the Browns will win.

Spread: SF -3.5   Over/Under: 46.5

Prediction: Browns 27, 49ers 21

Last Week: 7-8  vs. Spread: 8-7  Over/Under: 6-9

Season: 36-26-1  vs. Spread: 25-38  Over/Under: 28-34-1

My Week 5 Daily Fantasy Lineup

Starting this week, I will give you my FanDuel lineup for the week

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (@ PIT)

via theatlantic.com

Even in a loss to Cleveland last week, Jackson threw three touchdown passes, salvaging his fantasy day. He and the Ravens should bounce back this week against Pittsburgh. Plus, Lamar's running ability gives him plenty of fantasy upside. I also considered Colts QB Jacoby Brissett against the vulnerable Chiefs defense, and Tom Brady is a solid option vs. Washington.

RB: David Johnson, Cardinals (@ CIN)

via heavy.com

We don't hear much about DJ these days, probably because he plays for the Cardinals, but he has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of Arizona's four games so far this season, and he draws a highly-favorable matchup with Cincinnati this week. I also considered Ravens RB Mark Ingram against the Steelers and Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. the Bucs.

RB: Derrick Henry, Titans (vs. BUF)

via cbssports.com

Henry has been Tennessee's workhorse. He has totaled at least 15 carries in all four games, including a season-high 27 last week. He also has scored four touchdowns in four games. He's the kind of guy who probably won't win it for you, but also likely won't lose it for you. I also considered Nick Chubb against San Francisco, and I'd think about Colts RB Jordan Wilkins if Marlon Mack doesn't play.

WR: Jarvis Landry, Browns (@ SF)

via heavy.com

Landry is currently in concussion protocol, but the Browns don't play until Monday, and it sounds like he expects to play. Landry, like the entire Cleveland offense, finally broke out in Baltimore, racking up 167 yards on eight catches. When the offense is running smoothly, he's usually involved. If he doesn't play, you could look at fellow Brown Antonio Callaway, who returns from suspension.

WR: Michael Thomas, Saints (vs. TB)

via clutchpoints.com

Thomas is as consistent as they come. The Saints' number one receiver has a total of 34 catches on 42 targets through four games this season, and he has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game. This week, he faces a Tampa defense that just gave up 517 passing yards to the Rams. I also considered Bucs WR Mike Evans in New Orleans.

WR: Tyler Boyd, Bengals (vs ARI)

via fanduel.com

With both A.J. Green and John Ross injured, Boyd is the only Bengals receiver I can name off the top of my head (unless you count the tight ends). Ross was having a strong start to the season before he got hurt Monday night, so Boyd will be counted on more against Arizona. I also considered Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery against the Jets.

TE: Will Dissly, Seahawks (vs. LAR)

via montanasports.com

Dissly might be the most underrated receiving tight end in the league right now. He has found the end zone in three straight games, and has tallied at least five catches in each one of those games. The Rams gave up 55 points to Tampa last week, so Dissly could find the end zone again this week. I also briefly considered Browns TE Ricky Seals-Jones vs. San Francisco.

FLEX: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers (@ DAL)

via packers.com

Devante Adams is questionable for this week's game. If he doesn't play, MVS will be looked upon to fill the roll of number one receiver for Green Bay. As a second fiddle to Adams, Valdez-Scantling has been targeted five or more times in all four games this season. If Adams plays, I might transition to Patriots RB Sony Michel against Washington or Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett vs. the Rams.

DEF: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYJ)

via theeagleswire.usatoday.com

Unfortunately, the Dolphins don't play this week. But the Sam Darnold-less Jets do, and they play a Philly defense that helped the Eagles knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Thursday night. Other defenses I considered were New England's against the Redskins and Cleveland's vs. the Niners.

Stats and info via ESPN.com, Twitter.com, YouTube.com, CBSSports.com, and NFL.com

Lines via OddsShark.com

Lines as of Wednesday night