College Football 2019: Week 7

When the Associated Press released its weekly Top 25 poll this week, I saw two things I had never seen before. First, I saw that Georgia and Ohio State were not third and fourth in the rankings, but both tied for third. I thought there was always a tie-breaker in the AP Poll. I guess I was wrong. Second, I saw that there were 26 teams in the Top 25 Poll. This was caused by the tie between Georgia and Ohio State at three.

I guess this would be as good a time as any for me to do some ranking. If the College Football Playoff began today, these are the four teams I would put in it:

1.  Alabama - No, Alabama hasn't really played anybody. But this is Alabama. There is NFL talent everywhere, and the Crimson Tide are headed by the most accomplished coach in college football. Since the Tide hasn't really been tested, I don't have a lot of evidence to support ranking them number one (besides they're talent and destruction of far inferior teams), but I do believe this is one of the two best teams in the nation.

2.  Ohio State - By both the metrics and the eye test, Ohio State has been the best team in the country so far this season. Of all the top teams, Ohio State has had the strongest strength of schedule thus far. Among its wins are a dismantling of Cincinnati (which is now a ranked team), and a rout of Michigan State last Saturday night. There is no disputing the fact that the Buckeyes have been the most dominant team in college football up to this point of the season.

3.  Georgia - The Bulldogs have been dominant. The dominance has mostly come against bad teams, but Georgia has also beaten Notre Dame, another top 10 team. At this point in the season, it's hard to find Playoff arguments for teams, aside from what they've done in the first six weeks, which isn't much. So, with Georgia, like Alabama, I look at the talent on the team and believe that this team is a Playoff contender.

4.  LSU - The Bayou Bengals, much like Georgia, have feasted on mostly cupcakes thus far, but also have a strong ranked win (over Texas). I would say LSU's strongest win is better than Georgia's, because the Tigers traveled to Texas and beat the Longhorns, while Georgia beat the Fighting Irish in Athens. LSU has always been a talented team, but this LSU team looks like the best one in years.

Again, those are probably the four teams I would put in the Playoff right now. Arguments could be made for these teams to be arranged in a different order, but, with all due respect to Oklahoma and Clemson, I believe those should be the top four teams right now based on what has transpired through six weeks. Next are the teams I think will be in the top four by the end of the season:

1.  Clemson - This is more of an indictment of the ACC than it is an endorsement of Clemson. The defending champs are a very good team, but they also play a pretty light schedule. The only ranked team remaining on their schedule is Wake Forest. Although someone could pull off a shocker, the Tigers should get through the rest of their schedule without a loss.

2.  Alabama - The only teams I see beating Bama during the regular season are LSU and Auburn, and even if one of those teams does pull off the upset (or Alabama loses in the SEC Championship), the Crimson Tide will probably still get into the Playoff. As long as Alabama doesn't lose more than once, the Tide will probably be in the CFP again.

3.  Ohio State - The Buckeyes have to get through tough tests such as Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan (and the Big Ten Championship), but they have looked like a National Championship contender so far. If they keep playing like this, they'll be hard to beat. As long as there isn't a repeat of 2017 Iowa or 2018 Purdue, I think Ohio State will get into the Playoff.

4.  Georgia - I considered Oklahoma here, but if both OU and Georgia finish with the same record, the committee will put the Bulldogs in the Playoff. Georgia still has to play Florida and Auburn, but even with one loss, it could get in.

Week 6 Superlatives

Best Performance: Jett Duffey, QB, Texas Tech (26-44, 424 yards passing, 5 total TD)

The junior quarterback, whose name I originally thought was JEFF Duffey, led the Red Raiders to a 45-35 upset victory over Oklahoma State last weekend.

Best Play: Texas DB D'Shawn Jamison Interception

I picked West Virginia to upset Texas last Saturday, but four Austin Kendall interceptions got in the way of that. One of them was an impressive one-handed pick by Jamison, who went up an out-muscled the WVU receiver as they went to the ground.

Best Quote: Cincinnati's Tweet After Upsetting UCF

 

This technically isn't a quote, but it may be one of the best victory tweets of all time. It was a wild week for the Bearcat Twitter account, and it ended in the best possible way. You love to see it.

Week 7 Picks

Friday

#20 Virginia @ Miami

(8:00 PM, ESPN)

Both of these teams lost their last game. Virginia got beaten by Notre Dame two weeks ago, while Miami fell to Virginia Tech last week. I am tempted to go with the Hurricanes (who are actually the home favorites), but I think the Hoos will pull out the win.

Spread: MIA -2  Over/Under: 43.5 

Prediction: Virginia 23, Miami 21

Colorado @ #13 Oregon

(10:00 PM, FS1)

The Ducks have not lost since the first week of the season, but they have to be wary of a Colorado team that has beaten two ranked teams. That being said, the Buffaloes have also lost twice, including last week against Arizona State. I'll take Oregon.

Spread: ORE -21  Over/Under: 59

Prediction: Oregon 42, Colorado 28

Saturday

South Carolina @ #3 Georgia

(Noon, ESPN)

After falling behind early, Georgia went on to rout Tennessee last week. Meanwhile, South Carolina scored a big win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks may stay with the Bulldogs in the first half, but I expect another Georgia rout by the end of the day.

Spread: UGA -23.5  Over/Under: 52.5

Prediction: Georgia 45, South Carolina 21

#6 Oklahoma @ #11 Texas

(Noon, FOX)

I originally made the Red River Rivalry my "Game of the Week", but then I realized that Florida-LSU could also be "Game of the Week", so I just got rid of the "Game of the Week" section. They're both games of the week. I'll take Jalen Hurts and the Sooners in Austin.

Spread: OU -10.5  Over/Under: 75.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Texas 35

#15 Michigan @ Illinois

(Noon, ABC)

It seems as though Michigan has gotten back on track, following up a rout of Rutgers with a big win over Iowa. The Wolverines should be able to continue that this week against an Illinois team that has lost three games in a row, all to unranked teams.

Spread: UM -22.5  Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Michigan 35, Illinois 10

#23 Memphis @ Temple

(Noon, ESPN2)

Unbeaten Memphis appears in the Top 25 for the first time this week. The Tigers will have to travel to Philly to take on a 4-1 Temple team that already has a Top 25 upset in the bag. I think the Owls will pull off the home upset, making the crazy American Athletic Conference even crazier.

Spread: MEM -5.5  Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction: Temple 35, Memphis 31

#1 Alabama @ #24 Texas A&M

(3:30 PM, CBS)

Texas A&M might challenge Alabama, something that hasn't happened yet this season, but the Aggies weren't able to conquer the other two ranked teams they've played (Clemson and Auburn), and I don't think they'll be able to conquer the Crimson Tide.

Spread: ALA -17  Over/Under: 61

Prediction: Alabama 42, Texas A&M 17

Florida State @ #2 Clemson

(3:30 PM, ABC)

Clemson, like Alabama, had a bye last week. The week before, the Tigers barely escaped North Carolina. I don't think this week will be nearly as tenuous. I'm not sure that they'll cover the 27-point spread, but I do think Clemson will cruise to an easy victory.

Spread: CLM -27  Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Clemson 41, Florida State 17

Michigan State @ #8 Wisconsin

(3:30 PM, BTN)

Michigan State had to travel to Columbus last weekend, and now they have to travel to Madison. MSU lost 34-10 to the Buckeyes. I expect a similar result against the Badgers. Maybe a little bit closer, but still a rout.

Spread: WIS -10.5  Over/Under: 40.5

Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 14

Washington State @ #18 Arizona State

(3:30 PM, PAC-12)

Three weeks ago, I picked ranked (and favored) Washington State to beat UCLA. Didn't happen. Two weeks ago, I picked Wazzu to upset Utah. Didn't happen. Last week, the Cougars had a bye, so nothing happened. This week, well... here we go again. Upset Alert. By definition, I am insane.

Spread: ASU -1.5  Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Washington State 34, Arizona State 28

#25 Cincinnati @ Houston

(3:30 PM, ESPN2)

Fresh off a big win over Central Florida, the Bearcats should continue riding high against a Houston team whose starting quarterback (D'Eriq King) decided to redshirt a few weeks ago. Even on the road (and even in the wild and wacky AAC), I'll take Cincinnati.

Spread: UC -7.5  Over/Under: 51.5

Prediction: Cincinnati 38, Houston 24

Texas Tech @ #22 Baylor

(4:00 PM, FS1)

I thought Baylor would suffer its first loss of the season last week against Kansas State. The Bears blasted KSU. I'm tempted to double down, especially with a Texas Tech team that upset Oklahoma State last week, but I'll go with Baylor at home.

Spread: BAY -11  Over/Under: 58

Prediction: Baylor 38, Texas Tech 28

USC @ #9 Notre Dame

(7:30 PM, NBC)

In a different year, this matchup might be more compelling. But it could still be compelling here, especially since USC quarterback Kedon Slovis has been medically cleared to play this Saturday. Even with Slovis back, I expect the host Irish to win.

Spread: ND -10.5  Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, USC 24

#10 Penn State @ #17 Iowa

(7:30 PM, ABC)

Even though these teams are ranked just seven spots apart, I see Penn State as a much more dangerous team than Iowa, which could only manage three points last week against Michigan. The Hawkeyes are at home, but I don't think the Nittany Lions will have too much difficulty.

Spread: PSU -3.5  Over/Under: 42.5

Prediction: Penn State 30, Iowa 21

Louisville @ #19 Wake Forest

(7:30 PM, ACCN)

Wake Forest looks like the ACC's best bet to topple Clemson, although that still isn't a great bet. The 5-0 Demon Deacons barely beat Boston College in their last game (two weeks ago), a week before Louisville barely beat Boston College. I think Wake will improve to 6-0 this weekend.

Spread: WF -6.5  Over/Under: 65.5

Prediction: Wake Forest 35, Louisville 21

Nebraska @ Minnesota

(7:30 PM, BTN)

Minnesota, the 26th-ranked team in the country, hosts Nebraska in this week's Unranked Game of the Week. The Golden Gophers have started 5-0, while the 3-2 Cornhuskers have underwhelmed. I'll go with the host Gophers to remain unbeaten.

Spread: MIN -7.5  Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction: Minnesota 35, Nebraska 28

#7 Florida @ #5 LSU

(8:00 PM, ESPN)

Although I initially had the Red River Showdown as my "Game of the Week", this SEC battle is probably the true Game of the Week. Even after losing a quarterback, the Gators look legit. However, I believe the Tigers look more legit, especially at home.

Spread: LSU -13.5  Over/Under: 55.5

Prediction: LSU 32, Florida 21

#15 Utah @ Oregon State

(8:00 PM, PAC-12)

Oregon State beat UCLA last week, and that was the 2-3 Beavers' best win of the season so far. That should tell you all you need to know about who I am picking to win this game, even with #Pac12AfterDark in effect.

Spread: UTA -14  Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Utah 38, Oregon State 17

Hawai'i @ #14 Boise State

(10:15 PM, ESPN2)

Speaking of wild late-night games, I have a feeling this one might be crazy. Boise State is unbeaten. Hawaii's lone loss was a beatdown at the hands of Washington. While I do think the Broncos will win this, don't underestimate the Rainbow Warriors.

Spread: BSU -12.5  Over/Under: 60.5

Prediction: Boise State 41, Hawai'i 35

Last Week: 11-6  vs. Spread: 6-11  Over/Under: 6-11

Season: 101-28  vs. Spread: 57-70-2  Over/Under: 70-58-1

Stats and info via ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, Twitter.com, BleacherReport.com, and YouTube.com

Lines via OddsShark.com

Lines as of Thursday afternoon