Saturday, September 30, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 4 Preview (and Picks)

Colin Kaepernick and Eric Reid kneel during the National Anthem on September 12, 2016
(photo via Getty Images)
Last week was an entertaining week in the National Football League, but the biggest news story had little to do with football. After President Trump went on a Twitter rant regarding NFL players kneeling for the National Anthem (saying they should be "FIRED" if they kneel), that story (along with a separate Trump tweet about Steph Curry being uninvited to the White House) overshadowed every other sports news story last weekend. Many NFL teams responded with statements condemning Trump's tweets, and every team made some kind of statement on the field during (or before) the National Anthem. Some teams featured numerous players kneeling, some teams stood arm in arm, and some teams didn't even come out for the National Anthem.

Naturally, all of the statements made last weekend caused much conversation on the inter-webs. I am far from a political person. I don't really lean either way, and I usually don't have many conversations regarding politics. However, Trump's statements brought politics into sports, and after seeing many different takes from other people regarding this situation, I thought I would share some of my thoughts (I also shared some of my thoughts Monday on HAC 3 Strikes, the sports podcast I co-host).

First off, I'm going to say things that many others have already said. In my opinion, the best analysis of this issue came from Fox Sports analyst Nick Wright. I highly suggest hearing what he had to say. I completely agree with what he said, and I think he summed it up better than I will here.

Personally, I don't care whether someone stands, kneels, or sits for the National Anthem. I think they have the right to do so, and I don't think it disrespects the flag. However, I understand that many people have strong feelings associated with the Anthem, often because they (or people they know) serve or have served in the military. I have a lot of respect for people who are willing to risk their lives for their country. That takes a lot of courage, courage I'm not sure I possess.

Something else that takes a lot of courage is standing up for something you believe in, even if it may cost you your job. That's what Colin Kaepernick did by protesting during the National Anthem, and that's why he is a hero in my mind. He sacrificed his NFL career to bring awareness to racial injustice. I find it befuddling that he is still a free agent, especially now that many other players have also protested, but I've already voiced my feelings on Kaepernick's continued unemployment.

I also find it befuddling when people say that, by kneeling during the National Anthem, players are disrespecting the flag and disrespecting the military. First of all, these players are protesting the innocent killings of black men at the hands of police. They are protesting police brutality and racial injustice. They are not protesting the flag or the military, and many of them have explicitly stated that they are not trying to disrespect the military (many members of the military have even supported them). That seems to have gotten a bit lost in all of this, as many people (both in the media and in general) continue to frame it as a protest against the National Anthem.

Another argument people use against these protests is that military personnel risk their lives for the flag, so people should stand and respect it. Well, actually, soldiers risk their lives so people can continue to have the freedoms afforded to them in America, including the freedom to peacefully protest. What makes this country great isn't a piece of cloth. It's a piece of paper. And the first addition made to that piece of paper gives people the right to speak freely and peacefully protest. That is exactly what these players are doing, and they are doing it to bring awareness to a worthy cause.

I've also seen/heard people (in response to the protests) say, "If you don't like it here, then leave." When I see/hear that, I think, "Or you could leave, and move to some dictatorship where everyone is forced to stand for the National Anthem." But in all seriousness, that's one of the problems in this country. Privileged people don't know what less privileged people go through, and some of those privileged people (usually white men, who are the most privileged) just want the less privileged to pipe down. To make progress, people like that need to get on board and support the less privileged in their quest for justice.

One final thing. Remember the real reason for these protests. Innocent black men are getting shot by police for no reason. Racial injustice is happening every day. The United States is closer to equality than many other countries, but we still have a long way to go before everyone is equal. People of color are still mistreated in this country, and change needs to happen. These protests are a way for NFL players to bring awareness to inequality, because in order for change to happen, people must be aware of the atrocities occurring.

That's all I have to say about the protest controversy. You may not agree with me, but that's okay. We live in a country where people have many different beliefs and opinions. That doesn't mean we can't still get along.

Now for what you came for. It's time for my picks (which will probably be mostly wrong) and fantasy players I like this week (which will probably be even wronger).

Picks

Record
Last Week: 8-7   vs. Spread: 5-10   O/U: 9-6
Season: 26-17   vs. Spread: 19-24-1   O/U: 20-22-2

(Home Teams Listed Last) (All Times Eastern Standard)

Sunday
Saints 34, Dolphins 24 (London, 9:30 AM, Fox)  Line: NO -3   O/U: 50.5
Bills 21, Falcons 30 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: ATL -8   O/U: 48.5
Bengals 24, Browns 23 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: CIN -3   O/U: 41.5
Rams 30, Cowboys 27 (1:00 PM, Fox)  Line: DAL -6.5   O/U: 48.5
Lions 35, Vikings 14 (1:00 PM, Fox)  Line: MIN -2   O/U: 42.5
Panthers 28, Patriots 42 (1:00 PM, Fox)  Line: NE -9.5   O/U: 49
Jaguars 20, Jets 9 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: JAX -3   O/U: 38.5
Steelers 32, Ravens 20 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: PIT -3   O/U: 42.5
Titans 34, Texans 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: TEN -2.5   O/U: 44
49ers 24, Cardinals 30 (4:05 PM, Fox)  Line: ARI -6.5   O/U: 44.5
Eagles 32, Chargers 35 (4:05 PM, Fox)  Line: LAC -2.5   O/U: 47.5
Giants 28, Buccaneers 21 (4:05 PM, Fox)  Line: TB -3   O/U: 44.5
Raiders 27, Broncos 20 (4:25 PM, CBS)  Line: DEN -3   O/U: 45.5
Colts 7, Seahawks 24 (8:30 PM, NBC)  Line: SEA -13   O/U: 41.5
Monday
Washington 32, Chiefs 28 (8:30 PM, ESPN)  Line: KC -7   O/U: 49

Fantasy

(Players Listed In No Particular Order)

Quarterback
Andy Dalton, Bengals (@ Browns)
Dalton has been mostly "Bad Andy" so far this season, but he showed some "Good Andy" last week in Green Bay, throwing for 212 yards and two touchdowns. Cleveland allowed Jacoby Brissett, who was a third-string quarterback a little over a month ago, to throw for 259 yards and a touchdown (and run for two more) last Sunday, so we may see some more "Good Andy" this Sunday.

Deshone Kizer, Browns (vs. Bengals)
On the other side, we have Kizer, who once again struggled with interceptions last weekend (he had three), but also threw for two touchdowns and ran for another. The running ability continues to make Kizer an appealing value play in fantasy, and he'll find the endzone at least once in what should be a competitive game this weekend.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. Colts)
After throwing for a total of 356 yards and one touchdown in the first two weeks of the season, DangeRuss went off for 373 yards and four touchdowns last week against Tennessee. I expect more of the same Sunday night against a Colts defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense.

Phillip Rivers, Chargers (vs. Eagles)
Phil Rivers had a rough game last week against Kansas City, throwing three picks and no touchdown passes, but he should have a sunnier day this week against Philadelphia. The Eagles rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense, and L.A. will be motivated, looking to get its first win.

Deshaun Watson, Texans (vs. Titans)
First off, I would like to recognize what Deshaun Watson did this week. The rookie quarterback donated his first game check to three NRG Stadium cafeteria workers who were affected by Hurricane Harvey. Well done, sir. On the field, Watson threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns (along with two picks) last week in New England, and now he faces a team that gave up 373 passing yards and four touchdowns to Russell Wilson last week.

Running Back
Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
After rushing 19 times for 67 yards and a touchdown against Chicago, Pop Quizz only had five carries for 15 yards in a loss to Minnesota. I'll chalk that up to the Bucs playing from behind most of the game and re-establish faith in Jacquizz this week against the Giants, who are last in the NFL in rushing defense.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings (vs. Lions)
Cook, the rookie back out of Florida State, has had a solid start to his NFL career. Last week against Tampa, he had 169 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Vikes will continue leaning heavily on him with Case Keenum at quarterback, and he should find success again Sunday against Detroit.

Wendell Smallwood, Eagles (@ Chargers)
With Darren Sproles out for the season after tearing his ACL, Smallwood looks to be the replacement. Last week, he had 12 carries for 71 yards (and one catch for nine yards). Those stats should go up this week. The Chargers rank 31st in the NFL this season in rushing defense.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (@ Patriots)
McCaffrey gets on this list for a second straight week, even though Kelvin Benjamin looks fine after leaving with an injury last Sunday. The rookie out of Stanford had 101 yards receiving (on nine catches) last week in a loss to New Orleans, and now he faces New England, which has had some troubles on defense this season.

Javorius Allen, Ravens (vs. Steelers)
Allen is also on here for the second straight week. He didn't do much in London last week (eight carries for 15 yards and five catches for 13 yards), but, to be fair, none of the Ravens did much in a 44-7 loss to Jacksonville. Things should go better for Baltimore's most involved back Sunday against Pittsburgh, which had trouble stopping Bears running back Jordan Howard last week.

Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker, Dolphins (vs. Saints)
Parker gets listed here as "the number one receiver who's playing New Orleans this week". Last week against the Jets, Parker caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. In each of the first three weeks, a player has gone off for at least 100 yards receiving against the Saints. If anybody's going to do it in Miami, it will be Parker.

Mohamed Sanu, Falcons (vs. Bills)
Sanu has seen nearly as many targets (21) as Julio Jones (26) through the first three weeks, and Jones is questionable for Sunday. Even if Jones plays, Matt Ryan will target Sanu a decent amount against Buffalo. In the first three games, Sanu has been targeted nine time, six times, and six times (respectively).

Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ Cowboys)
My favorite rookie slot receiver whose first and last name start with the same sound has been a bit quiet, especially last week in a barn-burner with San Francisco, where he was only targeted twice (catching both passes). However, he was targeted six times in each of the two previous games, and the Cowboys gave up 325 yards through the air to Arizona Monday night.

Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers (@ Patriots)
I was feeling really good about Benjamin last week (playing the Saints with Greg Olsen out), and then he left early with an injury. I'm going back to the well this week, as he is expected to play against New England's porous pass defense.

Rishard Matthews, Titans (@ Texans)
With first round pick Corey Davis out last week, Matthews was targeted ten times, catching six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. Davis is out again this week, and Houston gave up 378 passing yards and five touchdowns last Sunday (it was to Tom Brady, but still).

Tight End
David Njoku, Browns (vs. Bengals)
Below the cream of the crop, there looks to be slim pickings at tight end. Taking a chance on someone like Njoku, who has scored a touchdown in two straight games, may turn out to be a good move. I know it's not smart to trust touchdown-dependent players, but I'm trusting Njoku to score again this week.

Charles Clay, Bills (@ Falcons)
Clay is no stranger to this list, and for good reason. He's scored two touchdowns in the first three weeks, and he's second on the team in targets (behind running back LeSean McCoy). Clay should be able to find some room Sunday in Atlanta.


Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jets (vs. Jaguars)
Our old friend ASJ has resurfaced in New York. In his first start of the season last week in Miami, Seferian-Jenkins caught five passes on six targets. Ignore the fact the Jacksonville leads the league in pass defense. ASJ looks to have a strong role in the Jets offense, and he could rack up some fantasy points on Sunday.


Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
Yes, the Bucs have rookie O.J. Howard, but Brate is the tight end who's seen the most action. He caught four passes and scored a touchdown last week, and this week he faces a Giants defense that's given up at least one tight end touchdown in each of its first three games.


Evan Engram, Giants (@ Buccaneers)
Speaking of the Giants and tight ends, the rookie out of Ole Miss has seen seven targets in each of the last two games, and Tampa gave up 369 passing yards to Case Keenum last week. Engram (unlike some of the other guys on this list) is a strong tight end play on Sunday.


Defense
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Browns)
The Bengals defense has been a top ten unit in the NFL so far this season, and after having to deal with Aaron Rodgers and the dangerous Packers offense last week, Cincy gets Deshone Kizer and the turnover-prone Browns offense. Cleveland has given the ball away nine times in three games.


Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Jets)
Surprisingly, the Jets won last weekend, and they've now scored 20 points in two straight games. But it's not a good thing when scoring 20 points in two straight games is considered a pleasant surprise. Plus, Jacksonville ranks second in the NFL so far this season in total defense.


Cleveland Browns (vs. Bengals)
I should probably stop putting the Cleveland defense on this list. It had trouble containing Jacoby Brissett and the Colts last week, and will be without talented linebacker Jamie Collins this week. But number one overall pick Myles Garrett may debut this week (he's questionable), and the Bengals offense, unlike the defense, has not been great.


Arizona Cardinals (vs. 49ers)
Kyle Shanahan's offense actually scored 39 points on the Rams last Thursday night, but the team had only scored 12 combined points in the two games prior. Arizona has a top ten defense in the NFL so far this season.


Detroit Lions (@ Vikings)
Somehow, Case Keenum threw for 369 yards three touchdowns last week, but I wouldn't expect an encore this week. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in takeaways (eight), so expect at least one turnover on Sunday against Keenum and company.

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Saturday Morning


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)



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