I'm going to tell you a story.
I would categorize it as a tragedy, though some may find it less tragic than others. It begins in August of the year 2017. Football season is around the corner, which means fantasy football drafts are in full swing. I am in three fantasy football leagues this year, all with friends of mine and friends of those friends of mine. In the first fantasy draft of the three, I am lucky enough to get the first overall pick. It's never easy having to decide between every single player in the league, but this year the choice seems easier. Antonio Brown (my first overall pick last year) is a great player, but the wide receiver position is deep, so it makes more sense to pick from the scarce running back group. Ezekiel Elliott was sensational as a rookie running behind the best line in the league last season, but he's currently suspended for the first six games of the season, eliminating him from the conversation for number one overall. That narrows it down to Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson. It's a toss-up. Bell is a very talented back with great ball carrier vision, but he hasn't been in training camp due to a holdout, and the Steelers have other weapons on offense (including the aforementioned Antonio Brown). That leaves Johnson as a no-brainer at number one for me. He's arguably the best running back in the NFL, he's consistent, he's stayed healthy, and the Arizona offense runs through him. I pick him knowing I have a sure bet to lead my fantasy team.
Johnson's gone before I can get him in the second league, but in my third league, I have the second overall, and the guy with the number one overall pick (my HAC 3 Strikes co-host Ben Vigliarolo) goes with Bell over DJ. I'm ecstatic, as I would have picked Johnson over Bell anyway. That gives me David Johnson, whom I think could be the best fantasy football player in the NFL this season, in two of my three leagues.
As the first week of the season begins, I'm feeling good (I also have Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt in two of my leagues, and he goes off for over 40 points against New England on Thursday night). I settle in Sunday afternoon to watch NFL Sunday Ticket with my friend Jonah (who I am in two leagues with), and we watch the RedZone channel, the Steelers-Browns game (since I am a self-loathing Browns fan), and the Cardinals-Lions (Jonah is a Detroit fan). At some point, we see David Johnson take a carry, get tackled, and stay down on the ground. This, of course, is not good. By this point, it's clear he probably won't be coming back into the game, but I think he might not miss any time, as the injury doesn't seem too serious. As the day goes along, the reports evolve from "he might avoid missing time" to "he'll be out at least a few weeks" to "he might miss half the season". And then, after an MRI Monday, it's announced that he's out until December with a dislocated left wrist.
I traded him in both leagues (albeit at a heavily discounted price, of course), so I at least made something out of it, but that's just one example of how heartbreaking fantasy football can be.
Picks (Home Team Listed Last)
Record
Last Week: 8-6 vs. Spread: 7-6-1 Over/Under: 4-9-1
Sunday
Browns 20, Ravens 17 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: BAL -8 O/U: 39
Bills 24, Panthers 27 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: CAR -7.5 O/U: 43
Cardinals 28, Colts 7 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: ARI -7 O/U: 44
Titans 17, Jaguars 10 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: TEN -2 O/U: 43
Eagles 27, Chiefs 35 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: KC -5.5 O/U: 47.5
Patriots 34, Saints 24 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: NE -6.5 O/U: 56
Vikings 28, Steelers 21 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: PIT -5.5 O/U: 45.5
Bears 13, Buccaneers 17 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: TB -7 O/U: 44
Dolphins 16, Chargers 24 (4:05 PM, CBS) Line: LAC -5 O/U: 45
Jets 3, Raiders 30 (4:05 PM, CBS) Line: OAK -13 O/U: 43.5
Cowboys 32, Broncos 17 (4:25 PM, Fox) Line: DAL -2.5 O/U: 43
Washington 23, Rams 14 (4:25 PM, Fox) Line: LAR -2.5 O/U: 45
49ers 7, Seahawks 24 (4:25 PM, Fox) Line: SEA -14 O/U: 42
Packers 38, Falcons 34 (8:30 PM, NBC) Line: ATL -3 O/U: 54
Monday
Lions 31, Giants 28 (8:30 PM, ESPN) Line: NYG -3.5 O/U: 43.5
Quarterback
Carson Palmer, Cardinals (@ Colts)
I had Palmer here last week. That was a mistake. Palmer looked awful (not quite Tom Salvage or Scott Tolzein awful, but almost Andy Dalton awful) Sunday afternoon against Detroit. He was 27-48 for 268 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions. He was also sacked five times and lost his star running back until December. So why did I put him here again? Good question... Oh, because he's playing the Colts, that's right. The Indianapolis defense made Jared Goff look like a star last week, and while Jared Goff may take a step forward this year, he is by no means a star. He threw for 306 yards and a touchdown in a rout. Palmer was BAD last Sunday, but I think he will look a lot better this weekend.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (vs. Bears)
This will be the first game of the season for Winston and the Buccaneers, since their Week 1 contest was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. He has some new weapons (1st round pick O.J. Howard and free agent acquisition DeSean Jackson) and he'll face a team that gave up 321 yards through the air against Atlanta last week.
Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. Jets)
Derek Carr threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns last week in a win over Tennessee, and this week he faces the lowly Jets, who gave up 224 yards and two touchdowns to Tyrod Taylor last week. The only way Carr doesn't have a good game (fantasy-wise) is if Oakland runs the ball the whole game and uses him sparingly.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (vs. Dolphins)
Phil Rivers threw for three touchdowns Monday night in Denver, and is always a solid quarterback option due to his multiple receiving options and the offense he plays in (plus, he's pretty good at throwing the football). He plays a Dolphin team playing its first game of the season. Miami was 29th in the league last season in pass defense.
Jared Goff, Rams (vs. Washington)
Yes, I know his inspiring performance last week (21-29, 306 yards, 1 TD) came against the Colts, and Goff got a lot of help from his defense, but he still looked pretty good. Washington gave up 307 yards and two touchdowns to Carson Wentz last week, so Goff could be a sleeper option this week in fantasy.
Running Back
Mike Gillislee, Patriots (@ Saints)
I don't expect Gillislee to repeat his opening night performance (15 carries, 45 yards, 3 TD), but he does look like he is the goal line back for New England. With that in mind, he faces a weak Saints defense that gave up 127 rushing yards to rookie Dalvin Cook Monday night. He is definitely touchdown-dependent (making him a risky play), but I fully expect him to find the endzone at least once on Sunday.
Marshawn Lynch, Raiders (vs. Jets)
Ah, it's good to have Beast Mode back in the NFL. Marshawn went for 76 yards on 18 carries in his return last week, and he'll probably find a lot more running room (and more carries) against the Jets, who let LeSean McCoy run all over them (22 carries, 110 yards) in Week 1.
Ty Montgomery, Packers (@ Falcons)
Atlanta made Tarik Cohen a household name (kinda), allowing Cohen to rack up five carries for 66 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and eight catches for 47 yards and a score through the air, which bodes well for the versatile Montgomery, who had 93 total yards and a touchdown last week against Seattle.
Tarik Cohen, Bears (@ Buccaneers)
Speaking of Tarik Cohen, it looks like he's a thing. It was only one game, but he was heavily incorporated in Chicago's gameplan last Sunday, and he made the most of it. This week he faces a Tampa Bay defense that was 22nd against the run last season.
Jacquizz Rodgers (vs. Bears)
JACQUUUUUIIIIIIIIZZZZZZZ! Now that I have that out of my system, let's talk about his prospects this week. It looks like he'll be the lead back while Doug Martin is suspended, and he has some explosiveness. Chicago's defense did a nice job of limiting the run against Atlanta, but I don't know if that will continue for a run defense that was 27th in the NFL last season. Pop Quizz is a solid play this week.
Wide Receiver
John Brown, Cardinals (@ Colts)
I believe in the Arizona pass offense this week, even though it looked awful last week. The Colts defense allowed Rams rookie receiver Cooper Kupp (more on him later) to go for 76 yards and a touchdown in his debut, and the loss of David Johnson takes one dangerous target out of the passing game. Carson Palmer will look to Brown at least a few times on Sunday.
Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (vs. Patriots)
Okay, so my Ginn recommendation didn't exactly pan out last week (he had four catches for 53 yards), but I'm doubling down this week. The Saints will continue to throw the ball (obviously), and New England's defense that gave up 368 passing yards to Kansas City in Week 1, including seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown by Tyreek Hill, who's a speedy receiver like Ginn.
Cooper Kupp (vs. Washington)
Time to talk about Cooper Kupp, who's name is still pronounced the same if you switch the first letter of his first name and the first letter of his last name. He had a great debut last week against Indianapolis, and it looks like he's already built a good report with Jared Goff. He'll find room against Washington's defense.
Davante Adams, Packers (@ Falcons)
Adams was quiet in Week 1 (three catches, 47 yards), but he's a highly talented receiver and top three target in Green Bay's pass-happy (and Aaron Rodgers-led) offense. He had 12 catches for 74 yards the last time the Packers played Atlanta (last October 30), and the Falcons let Mike Glennon, who is not Aaron Rodgers, throw for 213 yards and a touchdown on them last week.
Chris Hogan, Patriots (@ Saints)
I originally had Danny Amendola in this slot, but he's been ruled out, which means someone will have to fill in for Amendola's six catches and 100 yards last week. Enter Hogan, who's a similar receiver to Amendola. We know the story on New Orleans' defense (it gave up 346 passing yards to Minnesota Monday night), so Hogan (as well as Rob Gonkowski and Brandin Cooks) should find plenty of room to work on Sunday.
Tight End
Julius Thomas, Dolphins (@ Chargers)
Thomas will be playing with a new team after being traded from Jacksonville in the offseason. I don't how Miami's offense will look with Jay Cutler behind center, but Jay does like his tight ends (according to the Chicago Tribune, 692 of his 3,313 pass attempts in Chicago were to tight ends), so Thomas should see a good amount of targets on Sunday against the team he started his career with.
Charles Clay, Bills (@ Panthers)
I listed Clay here last week, and he rewarded me with four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. So I'm going to put him here again this week. Clay was the most targeted player last week for the Bills, and I expect that to continue.
Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. Jets)
Our old friend Jared Cook, who seems like he's been in the league for 40 years, had five catches for 56 yards in his Raider debut last week, and this week he faces the Jets, who gave up a touchdown to Charles Clay last week. Cook may be worth a look this week if you need a tight end.
Nick Boyle, Ravens (vs. Browns)
I had this guy on a team I fantasy drafted in Madden once, and I saw that ESPN Fantasy Expert Matthew Berry had him in his Love/Hate this week (as a love), but I didn't know much else about Nick Boyle. But I now know that A) He's Baltimore's starting tight end, sharing time with Maxx Williams, and B) He had one catch for 14 yards last week. Boyle is a very risky flier this week, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh tight end Jesse James (I don't think he's of any relation to the bank robber) had six catches for 41 yards and two touchdowns last week against Cleveland.
Martellus Bennett, Packers (@ Falcons)
The "Black Unicorn" had just three catches for 43 yards in his Packer debut, but he does play with Aaron Rodgers, and he will be playing in what looks like a shootout in Atlanta Sunday night. Bennett will likely see plenty of targets, and I expect him to take at least one of those to the house.
Defense
Arizona Cardinals (@ Colts)
The Colts (smartly) ended the Scott Tolzein Experiment after one half last Sunday, but the offense still had trouble in the second half. While the Jacoby Brissett Experiment has more promise, it still might be rough, especially against an Arizona defense that has some talent, especially in the secondary.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dolphins)
The Bolts registered two takeaways and a sack Monday night in Denver, and held the Broncos to 24 points and 321 yards (though L.A. still lost). This week, the Chargers battle the Dolphins, who are playing their first game of the season and have Jay Cut- whoops, it looks like the last part of that sentence somehow got intercepted.
Oakland Raiders (vs. Jets)
Just Envision These Statistics: 214 total yards, 11 first downs, 4-14 on third downs, two interceptions, six points. Those were the numbers put up by the New York Jets offense last week.
Cleveland Browns (@ Ravens)
Is this a bit of a homer pick? Maybe. But after one game, it looks like Gregg Williams' defense is for real (and that's without Myles Garrett). The defense is what kept the Browns in the game against Pittsburgh last week. One of the most dangerous offenses in the league totaled 290 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland, and one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game totaled just 32 yards on ten carries. Baltimore doesn't scare me, and I don't think it scares the Browns defense either.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Bears)
The Bucs start off their season at home against the Bears on Sunday. Chicago's offense isn't scary, even with the emergence of Tarik Cohen, and the Bears lost Kevin White for the season after having already lost Cameron Meredith for the season. Tampa's defense had 18 interceptions last season (6th in the league), so old teammate Mike Glennon better be careful.
Stats and information via ESPN.com and ChicagoTribune.com
To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)
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