Week 2 College Football Picks

Heisman hopefuls J.T. Barrett (right) and Baker Mayfield (left) face off Saturday night in Columbus

It's easy to underestimate or overestimate things in life. It's human nature to sometimes expect less or more than the actual reality. People are biased, and those biases, plus personal past experiences, lead to over or under estimations. For example, If I have done poorly on a certain professor's tests in the past (and have heard bad things about his tests), I'm probably more likely to underestimate how well I do on the next test, no matter how much I study. Everybody is off on their estimations sometimes. You can overestimate how much someone likes you. You can underestimate how well you did on a test. You can overestimate how may donuts you can eat in one sitting.

You can also underestimate and overestimate college football teams. That's what I did in several instances last week. An estimate is an educated guess, and that is basically what I'm doing when I do these weekly picks.

So with that in mind, I apologize to fans of teams I underestimated last week: Purdue, Western Michigan, Maryland, Stony Brook, and LSU. As for teams I overestimated (South Florida, Louisville, BYU, App State), I have nothing to say.

I'll try to better estimate teams this week.

Play of Week 1: "Some People Call Him the Space Aggie"

New Mexico State wide receiver Jaleel Scott made an incredible one-handed catch last Thursday night against Arizona State. He posted up ASU defensive back Kobe Williams using his left arm, and leaped into the air to grab the ball with his right hand, coming down with it in the back left corner of the endzone. Scott led all players with eight catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns, but NMSU fell to the Sun Devils 37-31.

(Home Team Listed Last)

Record
Last Week: 14-3

Friday

#11 Oklahoma State 50, South Alabama 21 (8:00 PM, ESPN2)

Line: OKST -28  Over/Under: 67.5

Mason Rudolph started off the season on the right foot last week against Tulsa, throwing for 303 yards and three touchdowns in a 59-24 Oklahoma State route. This week will probably be more of the same. The USA Jaguars are a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team coming off a 20-point loss to Ole Miss.

Saturday

#21 South Florida 35, Connecticut 13 (10:30 AM, ESPN News)

Line: USF -17  Over/Under: 66

Charlie Strong's first two games at South Florida haven't been the smoothest, but the Bulls are 2-0, and they shouldn't have trouble improving to 3-0 against a UConn team that won its first game since October 8, 2016, last week vs. Holy Cross. It had been so long for the Huskies, in fact, that they needed a little extra practice in the victory formation.

Cincinnati 7, #8 Michigan 42 (Noon, ABC)

Line: MICH -34.5  Over/Under: 49.5
The Wolverines used a big second half to cruise by a ranked Florida team (albeit one depleted by suspensions) last week, but they need better play from Wilton Speight, who was 11-25 and threw two pick-sixes against the Gators, and was even benched at one point for John O'Korn. Regardless of how well Speight plays, however, Michigan should have little trouble at home against Cincy.

Florida Atlantic 10, #9 Wisconsin 42 (Noon, BTN)

Line: WIS -32  Over/Under: 58.5
When the most noteworthy thing about your team is the fact that it's coached by Lane Kiffin, you probably don't have a very good team. The Owls couldn't stop Navy last week (they gave up 526 yards in a 42-19 loss to the Midshipmen), and they probably won't be able to stop the Badgers, who accrued 478 total yards in a 59-10 stomping of Utah State last week.

#17 Louisville 35, North Carolina 28 (Noon, ESPN)

Line: LOU -10  Over/Under: 62

Louisville looked like they might fall victim to Purdue, a team that looked pretty good in the first week under Jeff Brohm, and the Cardinals shouldn't take UNC lightly either. However, the Tar Heels lost quarterback Mitch(ell) Trubisky to the NFL after last season, and lost the first game of this season 35-30 to Cal. Lamar Jackson and co. might make it close, but they'll survive once again.

Charlotte 6, #19 Kansas State 52 (Noon)

Line: KSU -36  Over/Under: 57.5

No, Charlotte is not an FCS team (they were in 2013 and 2014, then moved to FBS in 2015). The 49ers play in Conference USA. This does not mean they will give Bill Snyder's team a challenge, though. They lost to Eastern Michigan 24-7 last week. Meanwhile, K-State is coming off a pummeling of Central Arkansas (55-19), which IS an FCS team.

Fresno State 7, #1 Alabama 56 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)

Line: ALA -43.5  Over/Under: 53

I was very tempted not to write anything for this game, but then I wouldn't be fulfilling my duty as a writer. So let's talk about Bama's performance last week in a 24-7 victory over Florida State. The Tide defense had three sacks and nine tackles-for-loss, the offense ran for 173 yards, and Jalen Hurts threw the ball 18 times (completing ten), accumulating 96 yards and a touchdown. The offensive stats will be a lot more prolific this week.

Pittsburgh 13, #4 Penn State 38 (3:30 PM, ABC)

Line: PSU -22  Over/Under: 66.5

This in-state rivalry looks to be pretty one-sided this year. The Nittany Lions are a title contender, and Heisman candidate Saquon Barkley ran for 172 yards and two touchdowns in a 52-0 rout of Akron last week. The Panthers barely squeaked by FCS powerhouse Youngstown State in double-overtime.

Delaware 10, #18 Virginia Tech 32 (3:30 PM, ACCN)

VT got a big first win last Sunday against West Virginia, and now the Hokies get a breather of sorts against FCS Delaware. Yes, Delaware is the alma mater of Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco, and yes, the Blue Hens did win last weekend. But Joe Flacco isn't walking through any doors (plus, he's not even elite), and that win was a 22-3 victory over Delaware State.

#23 TCU 55, Arkansas 42 (3:30 PM, CBS)

Line: TCU -3  Over/Under: 58.5

This should be one of the closer games of the afternoon, and it will also probably be a high-scoring affair. Kenny "Trill" Hill threw for 206 yards and four touchdowns in TCU's 63-0 dismantling of Jacksonville State. The Razorbacks (who beat Florida A&M 49-7 last week) aren't Jacksonville State, but I still think the Horned Frogs get past them.

Indiana State 3, #25 Tennessee 45 (4:00 PM, SECN)

Yet another FBS-FCS affair, Tennessee will face Larry Bird's alma mater coming off a wild double-overtime win over Georgia Tech. The Vols need to do a better job of stopping the run (they gave up 535 rushing yards to Tech's triple-option attack), and they probably will against an Indiana State team that gained 160 yards on the ground in a 22-20 loss to Eastern Illinois last week.

#13 Auburn 34, #3 Clemson 31 (7:00 PM, ESPN)

Line: CLEM -5  Over/Under: 53.5

Now comes the meat of this weekend's schedule. This matchup of Tigers might end up being the most entertaining game of the weekend. Jarrett Stidham had a decent debut (202 total yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) in Auburn's 41-7 beating of Georgia Southern last week, but like usual, the running backs stole the show, as Kam Martin and Kerryon Johnson each ran for 136 yards and a touchdown. Kelly Bryant was more than decent (313 total yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) in his Clemson debut last week against Kent State (a 56-3 win), and the team gained 353 yards on the ground (two more than Auburn). Despite this (and the fact that Clemson is home), I think the lethal Auburn rushing attack will carry the Tigers (the one's who are also Eagles, apparently) to an upset.

Chattanooga 0, #12 LSU 38 (7:30 PM, SECN)

This matchup might end up being the least entertaining game of the weekend. LSU is one of the teams I underestimated last weekend, as the Tigers shutout BYU after I picked the Cougars to pull off the upset. This week, I'm counting on LSU to pitch another shutout against FCS Chattanooga.

#15 Georgia 28, #24 Notre Dame 27 (7:30 PM, NBC)

Line: ND -4  Over/Under: 57

Notre Dame already looks better than last year, starting the season off with a win (49-16 over Temple). New quarterback Brandon Wimbush looked good, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns, and adding another 106 yards and a score on the ground. Running back Josh Adams also looked good, rushing for 161 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. The key for Notre Dame will be stopping Georgia running back Nick Chubb, who had 15 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Appalachian State last week. I think Chubb will cause problems for the Irish, and the Bulldogs will escape with a nail-biting victory. 

#5 Oklahoma 28, #2 Ohio State 42 (7:30 PM, ABC)

Line: OSU -7  Over/Under: 65

Last season, the Buckeyes went to Norman and ran away with a 45-24 win over Baker Mayfield and the Sooners. Revenge will be on the minds of Baker and co. when they travel to Columbus this weekend. Ohio State struggled in the first half against Indiana last week (especially in the passing game), so Mayfield may find some success early. However, the host Buckeyes just have too much talent for Oklahoma to handle.

Montana 7, #7 Washington 50 (8:00 PM, Pac-12)

In a battle of Grizzlies and Huskies, the Huskies have the clear advantage. Montana did beat fellow FCS team Valpo 45-23 last week, but this week they face seventh-ranked Washington, a team that also beat up on a FCS team last week (okay, it was Rutgers, but Rutgers is basically an FCS team). Jake Browning and the host Huskies should handily beat the Griz.

#14 Stanford 31, #6 USC 38 (8:30 PM, Fox)

Line: USC -6  Over/Under: 55.5

These may be the two best teams in the Pac-12 (although the state of Washington may have some contentions with that), and they meet Saturday night in the Coliseum. The Trojans got a scare from P.J. Fleck-less Western Michigan last week, while Stanford had no such scare in a rout of Rice. Heisman candidate Sam Darnold didn't have Heisman stats against Western (23-33, 289 yards, 2 INT), but he should put up better stats this weekend in what might be a fun (and close) game.

Boise State 30, #20 Washington State 45 (10:30 PM, ESPN)

Line: WSU -10  Over/Under: 58.5

Per usual, we end the night in Pullman, Washington, where the Cougars take on the Broncos. Boise State isn't the threat it was a few years ago, but the Blue Field Broncos still shouldn't be taken lightly. I don't think Mike Leach's team will take them lightly, and Luke Falk and friends should fly to victory.



Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)