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| Lamar Jackson will be looking to make a statement against Clemson Saturday night |
All of those things happened to me in the past week (plus I have those moments every week when I watch games that I've predicted to go one way go a completely different way). The last instance has to do with the betting lines for the games. So because of that (and because I had someone ask me how betting lines work this week), I'm going to give you (and myself) a brief overview of how sports betting works.
Sportsbooks in Vegas determine betting lines early in the week based on many different factors, and lines often change as gametime approaches, due to things such as weather and injuries. Lines can be somewhat difficult to read (I didn't know what they meant at first). For example, imagine Illinois and South Florida are playing (you don't have to imagine it, because those two teams actually play this week), and it says "USF -17.5". That means South Florida is favored by 17.5 points. If you think the Bulls will beat the Illini by 18 points or more, that means you think they will "cover". If you think USF will win by 17 points or less (or you think Illinois will win), that means you don't expect South Florida to cover. The over/under, meanwhile, is pretty straight forward. If the over/under of Illinois-South Florida is 56, that means sportsbooks expect the combined total points scored to be 56. If you think more than 56 combined points will be scored, you take the over. If you think the two teams won't reach that total, you take the under. Simple enough.
Now comes the part I've been doing wrong. Often times, sportsbooks will set lines and over/unders with a ".5", since teams can't score half a point. The reasoning for that? If, for example, the line for South Florida-Illinois was USF -17, and the Bulls win 17-0 (I was going to go with a different score, but this is the easiest to do math on, and I don't love doing math), that means they hit the exact line. I had thought that meant South Florida would have covered, but actually, that's called a "push", meaning it's basically a wash, and no money is lost or won. So, from now on, my "Record" section will have three columns for "vs. Spread" and "Over/Under". Instead of just W-L, it'll be W-L-PUSH. Hey, hindsight is 20/20, as they say (whoever "they" is).
(Note: actual sports betting is only legal in certain area in the United States)
(Note: many sportsbooks do not have lines for games between an FBS team and an FCS team, including the one that provides ESPN with lines and over/unders)
Play of Week 2: "Oh My Godwin"
Another week, another acrobatic one-handed catch. This time it was a touchdown catch by Georgia receiver Terry Godwin in the second quarter of Georgia's Top 25 matchup with Notre Dame in South Bend. The catch tied the game at 10. On 3rd and Goal, Godwin was locked up with Notre Dame cornerback Julian Love. He went up for a jump ball on the right side of the endzone, extending his right hand and pressing the ball to his shoulder as he came down. It was originally ruled incomplete, but after review, the call was reversed. That catch helped the Bulldogs squeak past the Irish 20-19.
(Mis)Play of Week 2: "3rd and 93"
Louisiana Tech did not have the greatest of nights Saturday against Mississippi State. It didn't get any better when the Bulldogs faced 3rd and Goal from the Mississippi State seven yard line, down 57-14 in the fourth quarter. A bad snap paved the way for hilarity. First, Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith tried to dive on the ball, but it squirted out of his grasp. Then multiple Mississippi State defenders attempted (and failed) to pick up the ball, as it continued evading them all the way down the field, until finally, Louisiana Tech receiver Cee Jay Powell corralled the squirmy ball at the other seven yard line, mercifully ending the most ridiculous play I've ever seen.
(Home Team Listed Last)
Record
Last Week: 14-2 vs. Spread: 5-8 Over/Under: 8-5
Season: 28-5
Friday
Illinois 14, #22 South Florida 28 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: USF -17.5 O/U: 56
After South Florida's game last week was postponed due to Hurricane Irma, there were questions whether the Bulls could get this game in. They will be able to, and it'll signal USF's first Power 5 test after unimpressive wins over Stony Brook and San Jose State. Quentin Flowers (535 total yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) hasn't looked like the Heisman sleeper many (including myself) thought he might be, and Charlie Strong's team has struggled early in the game against its first two opponents. The Illini are a Big Ten team, but they also beat Ball State and Western Kentucky by a combined 16 points. USF may start slow again, but the Bulls should be able to cruise to 3-0.
Air Force 7, #7 Michigan 34 (Noon, BTN)
Line: MICH -24 O/U: 47.5
Jim Harbaugh's squad has looked good through the first two games of the season, especially the defense, which held Florida to 17 points and Cincinnati to 14 points, forcing five combined turnovers. Wilton Speight rebounded from a pair of pick-sixes in the Florida game with 221 yards and two touchdowns against Cincy. The offense hasn't looked quite as good as the defense, and the Wolverines kept the Bearcats in it until the fourth quarter last week, but Air Force is not as good as Florida or Cincinnati.
#9 Oklahoma State 38, Pittsburgh 17 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: OKST -12.5 O/U: 64.5
Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys have cruised to blowouts of Tulsa and South Alabama, and they'll be looking for another rout Saturday in Pittsburgh. Rudolph has completed 45 of 62 passes on the season for six touchdowns and zero interceptions. On the other side of things, Pitt quarterback Max Browne has thrown for 278 total yards, one touchdown, and two picks. The Panthers beat FCS Youngstown State in overtime, then went to Happy Valley and got beat by in-state rival (and Playoff contender) Penn State. They may have an easier time against Oklahoma State than they did against Penn State, but not much easier.
#25 UCLA 45, Memphis 27 (Noon, ABC)
Line: UCLA -3 O/U: 73
Josh
#10 Wisconsin 32, BYU 10 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: Wis -16 O/U: 41
I don't know why I had so much faith in BYU, a team that is now 1-2 on the season after a 19-13 loss to Utah last week. On the other hand, it's not like Utah and LSU (the two teams BYU has lost to) are bad teams. Regardless, the Cougars have to deal with Wisconsin (a team that is better than both LSU and Utah) Saturday afternoon. Wisky hasn't played anybody very challenging (FAU and Utah State), but the Badgers are still among the better teams in the Big Ten and a force to be reckoned with, especially in the run game (295.5 rushing yards per game, just 95.5 rushing yards allowed per game). BYU will have trouble with that.
#16 Virginia Tech 35, East Carolina 3 (3:30 PM, CBSSN)
Line: VT -23.5 O/U: 60
This is a pretty easy prediction to make (well, several of these games are). Virginia Tech is 2-0 and coming off a shutout (against Delaware, but a shutout nonetheless), while East Carolina is 0-2, losing by 20 point and 36 points, respectively. You just have to look at West Virginia to see the stark contrast between these two teams. WVU played the Hokies in Week 1, losing 31-24. The Mountaineers then went home and destroyed the Pirates 56-20. East Carolina will have fits scoring against this Tech defense, but I'll give the Pirates more than Delaware scored.
SMU 32, #20 TCU 48 (3:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: TCU -18 O/U: 65
TCU has breezed by Jacksonville State and Arkansas, showing a lot of offense (91 total points, 451.5 yards per game), as usual. What has surprised me, however, has been the Horned Frog defense. After shutting out Jacksonville State, they held Arkansas to seven points. TCU has allowed just 166 yards per game, meaning the Frogs have given up less yards in two games combined than they've gained in one game. SMU has eclipsed 50 points in each of its first two games (albeit against Stephen F. Austin and North Texas), so I think TCU gives up a few more points in this game. I don't, however, expect the Mustangs to beat the Horned Frogs.
#23 Tennessee 13, #24 Florida 20 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: FLA -4.5 O/U: 49.5
The Gators were also blocked out by Hurricane Irma, so they had to sit and wait to go out and try to fix their scoring-challenged offense. Luckily, Tennessee, a team that gave up 535 rushing yards to Georgia Tech, comes to town Saturday. Yes, the Vols are 2-0 and ranked 23rd in the nation, but they needed overtime to beat Georgia Tech, and they played Indiana State last week. This will probably be a defensive duel, and I think Florida will be the last one standing.
Mercer 0, #15 Auburn 35 (4:00 PM, SECN)
Ah, the weekly "FCS Cupcake" game. Auburn comes off a missed opportunity against Clemson, a game in which the Tigers could not find the endzone, falling to the defending champs in a defensive battle 14-6. They get to take out their anger on the Mercer Bears, who are 1-1, beating the Jacksonville University Dolphins 48-7, and losing to the Wofford Terriers 28-27. Why do I feel like FCS teams have better nicknames than FBS teams? Anyway, Auburn in a rout.
Army 14, #8 Ohio State 48 (4:30 PM, Fox)
Line: OSU -30.5 O/U: 53
When I originally published this article, I forgot to include this game. After Ohio State's showing last week, I wouldn't be mad about not including them. Army is 2-0, but Ohio State is angry and looking to get back on track. J.T. Barrett and company should do just that Saturday in the Horseshoe.
Oregon State 14, #21 Washington State 40 (5:30 PM, PAC12N)
Line: WSU -21 O/U: 64
We have a Pac-12 battle at the good ol' 5:30 PM kickoff time up in Washington State. The Cougars had to go three overtimes to get rid of pesky Boise State last week. They shouldn't have to go any overtimes this week. 1-1 Oregon State has given up 483.7 yards per game and 46 points per game, which does not bode well against WSU's Air Raid offense. I'm going to predict five touchdowns for Washington State quarterback Luke Falk on Saturday.
Tulane 14, #2 Oklahoma 48 (6:00 PM)
Line: OKLA -35 O/U: 55.5
Oklahoma is feeling good coming off a beating of Ohio State in Columbus last Saturday night. Baker Mayfield is feeling real good. Tulane is feeling slightly less good (I would imagine). The Green Wave (why would anybody call themselves a dirty wave?) lost 23-21 to Navy last week. They've averaged over 200 yards and 12 points less per game than the Sooners. I'm going with the team that's feeling good over the team that's feeling less good. Remember: Feel good, play good.
Colorado State 6, #1 Alabama 42 (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Line: ALA -28.5 O/U: 53.5
CAN I PLEASE GET A GAME THAT MIGHT BE CLOSE?? Alabama followed up an opening week victory over Florida State with a trouncing of Fresno State, and now the Tide get 1-1 Colorado State. CSU has averaged 509 yards per game, but the Rams have played Colorado and Abilene Christian. I promise they won't eclipse 300 against Alabama (the Tide have averaged 262 yards allowed per game). The Tide will roll.
#12 LSU 31, Mississippi State 14 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: LSU -8.5 O/U: 51
This game actually has a chance to be a good one. The Bulldogs host SEC rival LSU, and they lost by just three to the Tigers last season. Mississippi State is 2-0, having beaten up on Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech. LSU is also 2-0, having beaten up on BYU and Chattanooga. I could see this being a real tight one, but I believe the Tigers are the more talented team, and I believe they will leave Starkville with a win.
Georgia State 3, #5 Penn State 48 (7:30 PM, BTN)
Line: PSU -37 O/U: 54.5
I'm tired of typing, and there isn't much to type about in a game between one of the top five teams in the country and an 0-1 Sun Belt team anyway, so here are Saquon Barkley highlights from last week:
Samford 12, #13 Georgia 32 (7:30 PM, SECN)
This one looks like a snoozer too (and it probably will be), but Samford is 2-0 (those wins came against fellow FCS schools Kennesaw State and West Alabama), and I think the team will come out ready to prove that they are the better Bulldogs. Unfortunately for them, they are most certainly not the better Bulldogs, as Georgia will show them Saturday.
#18 Kansas State 42, Vanderbilt 28 (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: KSU -4 O/U: 51
The battle between the unbeaten Wildcats and Commodores could be close. Each team will represent the other's first real test of the season (a list of the teams these two have played: Central Arkansas, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee State, Alabama A&M). Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has led Kansas State's strong offense, throwing for 511 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions (and running for another 111 and a score). Kansas State will outlast Vandy.
#3 Clemson 32, #14 Louisville 35 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: CLEM -3 O/U: 58.5
The marquee meeting of the weekend comes in the form of a rematch of a key game last season, in which eventual national champion Clemson held on to beat Louisville 42-36 in Death Valley. It was a battle between eventual Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and eventual National Champ Deshaun Watson. Watson is now in the NFL (he got his first NFL win Thursday night, when he led the Texans to a win over Cincinnati), but the Tigers are still one of the top teams in the country, especially on defense. They've given up zero touchdowns and just nine total points, while allowing 118.5 yards per game. But Lamar Jackson is a different challenge. He currently looks like the favorite to defend his Heisman win, throwing for 771 yards and five touchdowns. I think Clemson might be the better team, but the Cardinals almost won last season against Deshaun Watson, and now Jackson and the Cards don't have Watson to deal with. I think that, coupled with home field advantage and a desire for revenge, culminate in a big Louisville win.
Texas 21, #4 USC 45 (8:30 PM, Fox)
Line: USC -15.5 O/U: 67
Texas is not all the way back yet. Tom Herman and the Longhorns shutout San Jose State after falling to Maryland to start the season. They may hang in there with USC, but Sam Darnold and the Trojans showed they are a legitimate title contender with a dominant 42-24 win against Stanford last week. Texas, which gave up 51 points to Maryland, will have trouble containing the Trojans.
Fresno State 20, #6 Washington 42 (9:30 PM, PAC12N)
Line: WAS -33.5 O/U: 56
Out west, Washington hosts the Fresno State Bulldogs, who just faced the best team in the country. They lost to Alabama 41-10. This one probably won't be much closer, but I think Fresno State could hang around for a little bit. They've actually had a tougher schedule (so far) than the Huskies, who have played (and easily beaten) Rutgers and Montana. However, Washington is by far the better team, and should fly past Fresno.
#19 Stanford 28, San Diego State 31 (10:30 PM, CBSSN)
Line: STAN -9 O/U: 48
Wild things happen during Pac-12 After Dark, so this meeting of Pac-12 teams in Southern California Saturday night could be a game worth tuning into. The 19th-ranked Cardinal are coming off a 42-24 loss to USC, while San Diego State beat Arizona State 30-20 last week. The Aztecs lost Donnel Pumphrey to the NFL, but Rasaad Penny has come right in and filled his role admirably. Penny ranks second in the nation in rushing yards with 413 through two games. That isn't a good thing for the Cardinal, who gave up 307 yards on the ground to USC. Stanford has a talented rusher of its own in Bryce Love, who ranks 5th in the nation with 340 rushing yards, but SDSU has only allowed 50.5 rushing yards per game (I know, small sample size). I'm going to go with the Aztecs in the late night upset.
Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com
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