Friday, September 1, 2017

Week 1 College Football Picks

Deondre Francois (left) and Jalen Hurts (right) square off Saturday night

It's that time of year again. Time for sweatshirts and jackets. Time for sitting in bleachers on a Thursday or Friday night with the smell of burgers and hot dogs in the air. Time for fantasy drafts (and making fun of friends for drafting a kicker or defense WAY too early). And time for the return of my weekly game picks.

Head in the Game Blog has been on what I like to call "summer vacation" the past few months, largely due to the fact that we've been busy with work. But we have made our return just in time for football season. Langston Johnson kicked it off Thursday with a hype piece about gameday. If you're not already pumped up for football season (whether it be high school, which is already in full gear, college, which just started, or pro, which starts soon), I advise you to read it. It's definitely worth your time.

Now on to the picks. Reminder that I am not a psychic (or, if I am, I'm only psychic sometimes and don't get the whole picture, like Raven from That's So Raven). Regardless, I will do my best Shawn Spencer impression and pretend to be psychic.

(Home Team Listed Last)

Saturday

Kent State 13, #5 Clemson 48 (Noon, ESPN) 
Deshaun Watson is gone, as are many other key contributors from last year's Clemson team that took down Alabama in the College Football Playoff, but they still have tons of talent, led by returners (like receiver Deon Cane and defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence) and newcomers (like quarterback Kelly Bryant and running back C.J. Fuller). Kent State gets to open with the defending champion for the second straight season, and this one will probably go a lot like the other one (a 42-0 loss to Alabama).

Akron 6, #6 Penn State 52 (Noon, ABC)
In another battle of below-average MAC team versus playoff contender, the Akron Zips, coming off a 5-7 season a year ago, face the Penn State Nittany Lions, coming off an exciting Rose Bowl win and anchored by junior quarterback Trace McSorely and junior running back Saquon Barkley, who's a Heisman candidate. The Zips won't be able to stop those guys, and will have a hard time scoring against Penn State's stout defense.

Maryland 20, #23 Texas 38 (Noon, FS1)
Both teams were mediocre a season ago (Texas didn't even make a bowl game), and both have questions coming into this season (lots of youth at important positions), but Texas *should* have a lot more talent after hiring Tom Herman, who impressed as offensive coordinator at Ohio State and head coach at Houston, and who is a very good recruiter. Ever since winning the National Championship behind Vince Young, Texas has been more expectations than results. That might all end with the hiring of Herman, but they first have to avoid this initial trap game against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team.

Bethune-Cookman 3, #18 Miami 38 (12:30 PM, ACC Network)
Bethune-Cookman is an FCS team coming off a 4-6 season. I could probably end my blurb about this game right there, but I won't. The Canes lost quarterback Brad Kaaya and tight end David Njoku early to the NFL, and they have uncertainty at QB with junior Malik Rosier, but they still have tons of high-end talent all over the field, and they should breeze past B-C. By the way, Bethune-Cookman's mascot is the Wildcats, in case you care.

UTEP 17, #7 Oklahoma 60 (3:30 PM, Fox)
I'm trying not to fall asleep scrolling through these games, but that's usually how it is the first few weeks. The Miners come off a 4-8 season in 2016, and they shouldn't be much of a threat to Oklahoma. The Sooners will surely be looking ahead to their matchup with Ohio State next weekend. Yes, Baker Mayfield is still the starting quarterback for Oklahoma.

#11 Michigan 28, #17 Florida 17 (3:30 PM, ABC)
This game woke me up. In the first ranked matchup of the season, two defensive powerhouses battle. I can't tell you a whole lot about the key players in this game, since both teams have been pretty secretive about who they're starting (and since a quarter of Florida's team is suspended), but I do know redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks (great name) will be starting at quarterback for Florida, and he will probable face junior Wilton Speight for Michigan. I almost want to pick the Gators based on my dislike of Michigan and the starting quarterback's name, but the fact that Michigan looks to be a potential National Title threat (and that 10 Gators are suspended) means the Wolverines will probably come out on top.

Stony Brook 14, #19 South Florida 41 (4:00 PM, ESPN3)
What if I told you that this is the real marquee matchup of the weekend? Then I'd either be lying, crazy, or a big Stony Brook fan. South Florida got off to a slow start last week against San Jose State, but ended up winning by 20. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a player who could breakout a la Lamar Jackson last year, and Charlie Strong is still a very good coach. I don't know anything about Stony Brook's football team (it's an FCS team), and I'm not very motivated to look it up.

Western Michigan 21, #4 USC 45 (5:15 PM, Pac-12 Network)
Western Michigan is no longer rowing the boat, as head coach P.J. Fleck left for Minnesota during the offseason. The Broncos also lost quarterback Zack Terrell and wide receiver Corey Davis, although they still have a decent run game with Jarvion Franklin, Jamauri Bogan, and Davon Tucker. USC is a title contender led by quarterback Sam Darnold, whom I think will win the Heisman Trophy. The redshirt sophomore is already the projected #1 overall pick (by many) in next year's NFL Draft.

Appalachian State 19, #15 Georgia 28 (6:15 PM, ESPN)
Appalachian State is still widely-recognized thanks to a monumental upset over Michigan 10 years ago. The Mountaineers haven't repeated anything like that since, but they did almost upset then-#9 Tennessee the first week of last season (they lost 20-13 in overtime). Although Georgia is a bona fide SEC team led by highly-talented running back Nick Chubb, it did almost lose to Nicholls in the second week of 2016 (the Bulldogs survived 26-24), so I could see another near-upset for App State.

Central Arkansas 10, #20 Kansas State 50 (7:10 PM, ESPN3)
Another FCS cupcake. The only thing I know about this one is that it is somewhere in the middle of Arkansas. As for Kansas State, head coach Bill Snyder is still kicking as he leads the Wildcats again this season. The team that beat Texas A&M in the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl (these bowl names, man) last season returns many key starters, including the quarterback (Jesse Ertz). I peeked and saw that Central Arkansas actually had a good season last year. Kansas State should still cruise.

Georgia Southern 0, Auburn 35 (7:30 PM, SEC Network)
This isn't the NCAA Basketball Tournament, so I'm not giving Georgia Southern much of a chance. The Tigers have a new quarterback (Jarrett Stidham), but they might not miss a beat, as they once again have a very athletic and talented team (although they did lose that guy from Last Chance U who decided to transfer).

#16 Louisville 48, Purdue 16 (7:30 PM, Fox)
The Cardinals still have that Lamar Jackson guy, don't they? And they're playing Purdue? I'm done here.

#3 Florida State 24, #1 Alabama 42 (Atlanta, 8:00 PM, ABC)
We finally reach the game of the weekend. The defending champion runner-up against a team that was close last season and may be there this season. It'll be a battle of two talented young quarterbacks (Alabama's Jalen Hurts and Florida State's Deondre Francois), as well as two highly-talented defenses. It should be a fun game to watch between two elite college football teams. I say all of this, yet I still have Bama winning by 18, because that's what Bama does.

BYU 27, #13 LSU 21 (New Orleans, 9:30 PM, ESPN)
Sometimes you have to take risks in life. I don't have to take this risk, but I want to. I believe in the Morman Cougars from Utah. I believe in quarterback Tanner Mangum. I believe in running back Squally Canada, whom I've never heard of before, but whose first name is "Squally", and whose last name is the greatest country in the world (uh, I mean, uh, besides the, uh, USA, of course). I believe that LSU may be a bit overrated, like they were last year. I believe LSU has some question marks. I believe in late-night upsets. And I believe in this pick (I would advise you not to believe in me, however).

Montana State 13, #24 Washington State 52 (10:30 PM, FS1)
Ah, the return of college football means the return of Washington State football. For those of you unfamiliar with Washington State football, let me just say if you love defense and running the ball, don't like staying up late, and like watching football games played at a brisk pace, you will HATE Washington State football. Mike Leach and quarterback Luke Falk lead the Cougars again, looking for a Pac-12 title that they fell just short of last season.

Sunday

#22 West Virginia 24, #21 Virginia Tech 28 (7:30 PM, ABC)
Don't overlook the Sunday night game. I almost said it's the Battle of Virginia, but then I remembered West Virginia is a different state from Virginia. The quarterback battle will be between VT redshirt freshman Josh Jackson (which is also the name of the #4 overall pick in this year's NBA Draft, in case anyone cares) and WV transfer Will Grier (he's the guy who led Florida to a great start and then tested positive for steroids). Virginia Tech is known to play low-scoring defensive games, while West Virginia is known for the opposite. I could see this tilting either way, but defense wins championships.

Monday

#25 Tennessee 32, Georgia Tech 35 (Atlanta, 8:00 PM, ESPN)
Another game that should not be overlooked is this Labor Day clash between the SEC and ACC. Both teams have to replace quarterbacks, and neither has officially announced the starter. The Volunteers lost their quarterback (Joshua Dobbs) and starting running back (Alvin Kamara), but they return some key starters from their defense. It'll be somewhat difficult to stop Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and I think the Yellow Jackets squeeze out the victory.

Information and stats via ESPN.com





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