Starting this week, there will be football on almost everyday. Yes, the NFL is back, and despite all its problems (Roger Goodell, concussions, etc.), it's still quite entertaining. The entertainment began Thursday night, when the defending champion New England Patriots got a full dose of Alex Smith (28-35, 368 yards passing, 4 TD), Tyreek Hill (7 catches, 133 yards receiving, 1 TD), and Kareem Hunt (17 carries, 148 yards rushing, 1 TD; 5 catches, 98 yards receiving, 2 TD) in a 42-27 Chiefs win. The real fun comes Sunday at 1:00, when the NFL season starts en masse. I'm here to guess (not wildly, though) the victors and provide some players I think we'll perform well for your fantasy team (and mine, hopefully). I know this kind of article is not very original (there are tons of "Start/Sit" columns everywhere, and ESPN's Matthew Berry does a weekly "Love/Hate" column that I always make part of my weekly fantasy prep), but I'm not a very original person. The most original I get is at the end, when I give five fantasy football team names I've come up with (with logos).
Picks (Home Team Listed Last)
Sunday
Steelers 27, Browns 20 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: PIT -9.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Jets 6, Bills 17 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: BUF -8.5 Over/Under: 40
Falcons 34, Bears 17 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: ATL -6.5 Over/Under: 49
Ravens 20, Bengals 23 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: CIN -3 Over/Under: 42.5
Cardinals 31, Lions 28 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: ARI -2 Over/Under: 48
Jaguars 16, Texans 30 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: HOU -5 Over/Under: 39.5
Raiders 28, Titans 21 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: TEN -2.5 Over/Under: 51
Eagles 30, Washington 31 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: PHI -1.5 Over/Under: 48
Colts 10, Rams 24 (4:05 PM, CBS) Line: LAR -3.5 Over/Under: 41.5
Seahawks 32, Packers 38 (4:25 PM, Fox) Line: GB -3 Over/Under: 51
Panthers 35, 49ers 14 (4:25 PM, Fox) Line: CAR -5.5 Over/Under: 48
Giants 28, Cowboys 34 (8:30 PM, NBC) Line: DAL -4 Over/Under: 48
Monday
Saints 35, Vikings 24 (7:10 PM, ESPN) Line: MIN -3 Over/Under: 48
Chargers 17, Broncos 14 (10:20 PM, ESPN) Line: DEN -3 O/U: 43
Fantasy
Here are some guys I think could help out your fantasy football team this week. As I mentioned earlier, this is a lot like Matthew Berry's "Love/Hate" column (except it's just the "Love", because I want to spread love, not hate). These are guys I think will exceed expectations this week, and I usually try to focus on guys who aren't obvious starts (like, say, Aaron Rodgers).
(Note: players are listed in no particular order)
Here are some guys I think could help out your fantasy football team this week. As I mentioned earlier, this is a lot like Matthew Berry's "Love/Hate" column (except it's just the "Love", because I want to spread love, not hate). These are guys I think will exceed expectations this week, and I usually try to focus on guys who aren't obvious starts (like, say, Aaron Rodgers).
(Note: players are listed in no particular order)
Quarterback
Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. 49ers)
Cam is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, but he's expected to play. Cam always bring fantasy value thanks to his rushing ability, and this week he gets to face the worst rushing defense in the NFL in 2016. The last time Carolina played the Niners (September 18, 2016), Newton threw for 353 yards and four touchdowns (and added 37 yards on the ground). I don't know if he'll throw for four scores again, but I'd bet on at least two TD's and 300 yards.
Derek Carr, Raiders (@ Titans)
Two potential breakout quarterbacks (both in real life and in fantasy) meet Sunday. I'll get to the other one in a minute, but let's start with Carr, who took a step forward for Oakland last season (3,937 yards passing, 28 TD, 6 INT), and will look to take another step forward this season. The Titans were 30th in the NFL in passing defense last season, and although Carr didn't go off when he played Tennessee last season (he threw for 249 yards and a touchdown, along with a pick), I'm pretty confident he'll have a strong game to kick off the 2017 campaign.
Marcus Mariota, Titians (vs. Raiders)
On the other sideline, Mariota also is looking to take another step forward after a solid 2016 (3,426 yards passing, 26 TD, 9 INT). Derek Carr gets more opportunities to throw the ball (due to Tennessee's run-heavy offense), but Mariota provides more opportunity with his legs (he had 349 yards rushing and two scores on the ground last season, although he also put the ball on the ground nine times). Plus, he has some more help this year in Corey Davis and Eric Decker, and he should be able to find openings against Oakland (which was 24th in passing defense last season).
Carson Palmer, Cardinals (@ Lions)
The 37-year-old is still kickin', and he still provides a solid under-the-radar option in fantasy. After throwing for 4,233 yards and 26 touchdowns (along with 14 interceptions) in 2016, Palmer kicks off 2017 against Detroit, a team that is never near the top of the league in pass defense (19th last season). He also has all of his receiving weapons back, and is a solid middle-of-the-pack option at quarterback on Sunday.
Sam Bradford, Vikings (vs. Saints)
If you're looking for a sleeper pick at quarterback this week (or a money-saving choice in daily fantasy), look no further than Mr. Bradford. First of all, he averaged 258.5 passing yards (and 1.3 touchdowns) per game last season, and he had a couple big weeks. Second of all (and most importantly), he faces the New Orleans defense, which was last in the league last season.
Running Back
Devonta Freeman, Falcons (@ Bears)
Overall, I don't expect Freeman to perform as well as he did last season. He has Tevin Coleman continuing to push for carries, and it'll just be hard for the Atlanta offense in general to replicate last year's Super Bowl team. However, I think he'll have a big game this week against the Bears. Chicago was 27th in rush defense last season, and I believe he'll rack up yards (and maybe a touchdown or two) early.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns (vs. Steelers)
I do expect a big year from the Crow. Hue Jackson has already stated that he's going to be more dedicated to the run this season, and with a rookie under center, Crowell will see plenty of carries. Plus, Cleveland spent big on the offensive line in the offseason. Pittsburgh isn't awful against the run (it finished 13th in rush defense in 2016), but last time these two teams met (January 1), Crowell went off for 152 yards on the ground. With Deshone Kizer starting his first NFL (regular season) game, Cleveland will go to Crowell early and often.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (@ 49ers)
The Carolina coaching staff seems to like McCaffrey a lot, and apparently even has a separate package of plays for him. This is good news for his fantasy owners, as McCaffrey should get a majority of the backfield work (both on the ground and through the air). Want more good news? He gets to debut against the 49ers, whose run defense (or lack thereof) I have already mentioned.
Todd Gurley, Rams (vs. Colts)
After a fantastic rookie season, Gurley disappointed fantasy owners who drafted him high last season, but his struggles were partly due to the struggles of the entire Rams offense. While the offense still might struggle this season, it should at least be a little better, and Gurley will once again be the workhorse running back. A meeting with the Colts, who were 25th in the NFL in rush defense last season, should lead to a big game for Gurley.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers (@ Broncos)
Gordon broke out with 997 yards rushing and ten touchdowns last season, and those numbers may be on the rise. He'll continue to get the majority of the workload, along with work in the passing game (he had 41 catches for 419 yards and two scores in 2016).
Wide Receivers
Terrelle Pryor, Washington (vs. Eagles)
The Pryor known as a quarterback prior to prioritizing being a receiver is now in Washington after being in Cleveland prior to this year. He gives Captain Kirk Cousins a big, athletic target, and I expect him to make an impact right away. In last year's season opener, Pryor had three catches for 68 yards, and that was his first (regular season) NFL game at receiver. Plus, it was with RGIII at quarterback. Kirk Cousins (RG's former backup) should provide more stability. Oh, also, the team he played in last season's opener? The Philadelphia Eagles.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (@ Packers)
After Seattle traded Jermaine Kearse and cut preseason star Kasen Williams, I wondered to myself, "Who's Russell Wilson going to throw to besides Doug Baldwin?" (the answer is Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, among others). But Baldwin should once again lead the Seahawks in receptions and receiving yards, and this week he faces a Green Bay team that was 31st in pass defense last season.
Corey Coleman, Browns (vs. Steelers)
Yes, I have two Cleveland Browns on this list, because I am a believer in Believeland. The Browns signed Kenny Britt and drafted David Njoku in the offseason, but neither had a great preseason, so Coleman remains the clear number one guy. I don't expect Deshone Kizer to go deep a whole lot, but when he does, it'll probably be to Coleman. And I expect him to connect on at least one deep shot.
Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (@ Vikings)
Willie Snead is suspended the first two games, so that means Teddy Ginn is the go-to man in the slot. While drops are a problem, Ginn has the speed and big-play ability to have a good day. He'll see plenty of work in New Orleans' pass-heavy offense, and I think he could make a solid play in daily fantasy, or a solid flex play in season-long fantasy.
Kevin Benjamin, Panthers (@ 49ers)
Benjamin has slimmed down, and he looked pretty good during the preseason. He's still Cam Newton's top target (aside from tight end Greg Olson), and we could see a bounce-back campaign from him. It all starts against San Francisco's defense, which I've already discussed twice (in case you missed it, they're not good).
Tight End
Delanie Walker, Titans (vs. Raiders)
I have Delanie Walker on all three of my fantasy teams, so I guess you could say I'm a fan of his work. A step forward for Marcus Mariota means a step forward for Walker. Although the additions of Corey Davis and Eric Decker may take targets away from him, Walker is still the go-to guy, and I think he'll definitely be that guy in the first game.
Jordan Reed, Washington (vs. Eagles)
Yes, I know I have both Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jordan Reed on this list. Don't worry, there's enough to go around. In fact, with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (Washington's top two receivers last season) gone, there's a whole lot to go around. It'll be devided up among Pryor, Reed, Jamison Crowder (the top returning receiver), and sophomore Josh Doctson. I expect a solid first game from Reed.
Charles Clay, Bills (vs. Jets)
May I interest you in a tight end? His name is an alliteration, which is always a plus. He plays for a team that lost Sammy Watkins (but gained Jordan Matthews). He led the team in targets and catches last season, and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. Oh, and best of all, he plays the lowly New York Jets this weekend. If anything sold you on him, it was probably the last sentence.
Zach Miller, Bears (vs. Falcons)
This may be a tougher sell, what with Chicago's quarterback situation (Mike Glennon? Really?). However, Miller was third on the team in receiving last season, and the two ahead of him were Cameron Meredith (out for the season) and Alshon Jeffery (now on the Eagles). And the Bears will be throwing a lot to try to keep up with Atlanta.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. Saints)
If I'm putting Sam Bradford on this list, I'm obviously going to put Bradford's favorite target on here too. Rudolph was targeted 132 times last season, 21 more than the next-closest Viking receiver (Stefon Diggs). He'll be oft-targeted Monday night against New Orleans, and I expect at least one of those targets to result in a touchdown.
Defense
Rams (vs. Colts)
The Rams have a solid defense (they were 9th in total defense in 2016), but that's not why they're on this list. They're on this list because they face a Colts team quarterbacked by Scott Tolzien. With Andrew Luck not yet back from injury, Indianapolis will go with the former Badger (I mean that he went to Wisconsin, not that he was an actual badger at one point and somehow magically turned into a human) whose career stat line is: 23-37, 216 yards passing, one touchdown, two picks, and a fumble. I'm counting on at least two turnovers Sunday.
Texans (vs. Jaguars)
It's kind of silly for me to list the Texans, one of the best defenses in the league. If you have Houston's defense, you're starting Houston's defense. If you don't have Houston's defense, you're not getting Houston's defense. I have the Texans defense on this list because I just want to emphasize how confident I am in them this weekend. They are facing Chad Henne, a guy who has played a total of four games the last three years.
Falcons (@ Bears)
Like the first two teams, the Falcons are here because of the quarterback they're up against. Atlanta gets Mike Glennon, a guy who got a three-year, $45 million contract because he hasn't been horrible in 21 career games. Jordan Howard may find some success on the ground against ATL, but the Falcons should give Glennon trouble in the passing game.
Bills (vs. Jets)
Buffalo's front seven should be salivating at this matchup. The Bills get the honor of hosting the worst team in the National Football League, one that will be rolling out Josh McCown, a guy who was a backup in Cleveland, at quarterback. I took a quick look at New York's offense, and I think Tim Tebow might be one of the top five scoring threats on this team. LONG LIVE TIM TEBOW.
Chargers (@ Broncos)
Joey Bosa and company face off against Denver, a team that was 27th in the league in total offense last season, on Monday night. The last time these two teams met at Mile High (October 30, 2016), the Chargers had three turnovers, including a pick-six (they also threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, but that's beside the point), and I expect strong defense again this time around in Denver.
Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com
5 Fantasy Football Team Names (and Logos)
I've gotten into the business of making logos to go with my silly fantasy football team names (which are always player-based puns), and here are the five I've created (I use the first three for my three fantasy football teams). I'm a very amateur graphic designer (I created these through SnapChat), so they aren't the highest-quality logos. Feel free to use any of the names/logos.
1. Red Hot Jabrili Peppers
2. The Real Slim Shady
3. Delanie Walker Texas Ranger
4. Gone With the Winston
5. Whiteing on the Rawls
To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)
No comments:
Post a Comment