Friday, October 6, 2017

Week 6 College Football Picks



Will Grier (top) and Kenny Hill (bottom) battle it out Saturday afternoon
(Photos via Getty Images and Campus Insiders)
This week's college football slate features many enticing conference matchups, including a Big 12 battle of ranked teams and some #PAC12AfterDark.


Play of Week 5: "Saquone-handed"


For the second week in a row, Saquon Barkley appears in this spot. Already up on Indiana 21-0 late in the first quarter, Barkley palmed a first down screen pass and took it 36 yards through the Hoosier defense.

(Mis)Play of Week 5: "Friendly Fire"


East Carolina did not have a good day last Saturday. The Pirates lost to South Florida, 61-31, and punter Austin Barnes punted a ball into the back of his teammate's head.

Top Performance of Week 5

Photo via Sports Illustrated
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford - 25 carries, 301 yards, 3 TD 
All the Cardinal needed Saturday in a 34-24 win over Arizona State was Love, who set a new school record for rushing yards in a single game. He now has 1,088 rushing yards through five games, the most in the FBS. The next closest player has 823 rushing yards.


Picks

Record
Last Week: 15-2   vs. Spread: 9-8   O/U: 7-10
Season: 75-16   vs. Spread: 32-37   O/U: 33-36

(Home Teams Listed Last)

Wake Forest 13, #2 Clemson 35 (Noon, ESPN2)
Line: CLEM -21.5   O/U: 47.5
The Demon Deacons are 4-1 on the season, but they couldn't beat Deondre Francois-less Florida State last week in Winston-Salem. So beating Kelly Bryant and the defending champs in Death Valley is probably not going to happen.

Iowa State 17, #3 Oklahoma 48 (Noon, Fox)
Line: OKLA -30.5   O/U: 63.5
Oklahoma struggled with winless Baylor last week, so the outcome of this one isn't a foregone conclusion. But Iowa State, which lost to Texas last week, hasn't beaten the Sooners since 1990, and I think that drought continues on the road against Baker Mayfield and company Saturday.

#4 Penn State 32, Northwestern 10 (Noon, ABC)
Line: PSU -14   O/U: 51
The Nittany Lions should be weary of the Wildcats, who battled Wisconsin in a 33-24 loss last week. Plus, the last time Penn State played a Big Ten team on the road, Iowa almost pulled off the upset. However, Penn State's talent should overwhelm Northwestern.

#5 Georgia 35, Vanderbilt 24 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: UGA -17   O/U: 40.5
Facing its fourth ranked team in a row, I think Vanderbilt will fare better than it did against Alabama and Florida. But the Commodore defense will have a hard time stopping Nick Chubb and the surging Bulldogs.

Ole Miss 9, #12 Auburn 31 (Noon, SECN)
Line: AUB -22.5   O/U: 57
Ole Miss got smashed by Alabama last weekend, and it won't be a whole lot easier this weekend. Auburn's defense ranks ninth in the country. The Rebel defense, on the other hand, ranks 101st in the country.

#23 West Virginia 32, #8 TCU 41 (3:30 PM, FS1)
Line: TCU -13   O/U: 67.5
I think this will be the game to watch this weekend. Veteran quarterback Will Grier gives the Mountaineers a real shot at the upset, but TCU, which ranks in the top 30 in both total offense and total defense, looks like the real deal.

#13 Miami 30, Florida State 17 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: MIAMI -3   O/U: 45
The loss of Deondre Francois was clearly a devastating blow for the Seminoles, as they lost to NC State and barely beat Wake Forest in their two full games without him. They'll be hard-pressed to get a win against the unbeaten Canes.

#21 Notre Dame 44, North Carolina 20 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: ND -15   O/U: 63
The Fighting Irish, behind junior running back Josh Adams, have looked good since a nail-biting loss to Georgia. 1-4 North Carolina provides little resistance to Adams and the Irish.

LSU 13, #21 Florida 28 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: FLA -2   O/U: 45
LSU is not good, as evidenced by its blowout loss to Mississippi State and its upset loss to Troy. Florida still has questions on offense, but the Gators are definitely a lot better than the Tigers.

Oregon State 17, #14 USC 48 (4:00 PM, PAC12N)
Line: USC -33.5   O/U: 58
USC's loss to Washington State last Friday probably dashed its Playoff hopes (along with Sam Darnold's Heisman hopes), but the Trojans will bounce back against Oregon State, which has the tenth-worst defense in the nation.

Maryland 14, #10 Ohio State 52 (4:00 PM, Fox)
Line: OSU -31   O/U: 60.5
Ohio State steamrolled Rutgers last week, 56-0. Maryland provides a tougher test for the Buckeyes, but it still shouldn't be close, especially if J.T. Barrett and the OSU offense continue to play better.

#1 Alabama 38, Texas A&M 10 (7:15 PM, ESPN)
Line: ALA -26.5   O/U: 55.5
One shouldn't completely count out Kellen Mond and the 4-1 Aggies, but the Tide continue to roll, blowing out Vandy, 59-0, and Ole Miss, 66-3, the past two weeks. Another blowout is likely in the cards for Saturday.

#16 Virginia Tech 34, Boston College 13 (7:15 PM, ESPN2)
Line: VT -16.5   O/U: 45.5
The Hokies (unsurprisingly) got stomped by Clemson last Saturday night, but they should find relief this week. Boston College averages 17.6 points per game (118th in the nation), while Tech's defense gives up just 14.4 points per game (T-12th in the nation).

Michigan State 17, #7 Michigan 30 (7:30 PM, ABC)
Line: MICH -10.5   O/U: 40.5
Michigan State will be hyped and ready to go for this in-state rivalry game Saturday night, so it could be close. But Michigan has a lot more talent, and the team's one big question mark (quarterback) might have solved itself when Wilton Speight got hurt, paving the way for John O'Korn.

#9 Wisconsin 32, Nebraska 14 (8:00 PM, BTN)
Line: WIS -11   O/U: 45.5
Wisconsin will try not to fall into an upset trap when it goes to Nebraska Saturday night. I don't think this bona fide Badger team will, especially against a Cornhusker team that has lost to Oregon and Northern Illinois.

#11 Washington State 45, Oregon 38 (8:00 PM, Fox)
Line: WSU -3   O/U: 59.5
Washington State looks like a legitimate Pac-12 title threat after beating USC last Friday night, and I think they are. But a Saturday night trip to Eugene could make for a wild (and closer-than-expected) contest.

#25 UCF 35, Cincinnati 21 (8:00 PM, ESPNU)
Line: UCF -17   O/U: 54
3-0 Central Florida appears in the Top 25 for the first time this season, and shouldn't be in much danger of falling back out this week. Junior quarterback Hayden Moore could keep the Bearcats in it, but this is a team that has lost to Navy and Marshall the last two weeks.

Stanford 27, #20 Utah 32 (10:15 PM, FS1)
Line: STAN -4   O/U: 51
There are multiple #PAC12AfterDark games to choose from this weekend, and this one might be the most tightly-contested one. Utah will look to improve to 5-0, but must stop Bryce Love, the nation's top running back. I think the host Utes (and their 17th-ranked defense) will escape with a victory.

California 24, #6 Washington 52 (10:45 PM, ESPN)
Line: WASH -28.5   O/U: 52
This late-night Pac-12 game may not be as closely-contested as the others. Cal has lost to USC and Oregon the last two weeks, and now the Bears must face Jake Browning and the unbeaten Huskies in Seattle. Washington hasn't had to sweat so far this season, and I don't think there will be much sweating here.

#19 San Diego State 27, UNLV 12 (10:45 PM, ESPN2) 
Line: SDSU -10   O/U: 57
Once again, the Top 25 slate ends with San Diego State, which travels to UNLV this week. With running back Rashaad Penny (who ranks second in the FBS in rushing yards) and a top-25 defense, the Aztecs should cruise.

Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com and SportLine.com

Spreads and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon



To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

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