Friday, October 27, 2017

Week 9 College Football Picks

All aboard the Khalil Tate train
Photo via SFGate.com
It's a big week in college football (well, every week is a big week in college football, but you know what I mean). Several teams could have their Playoff hopes dashed on Saturday. This weekend's slate includes four games between ranked teams and many other enticing matchups.

Play of Week 8: "Walking on Water"


Hurdling (or attempting to hurdle) has become a big thing in college football, but this may be the greatest one I've seen. UCLA running back Bolu Olorunfunmi tried to jump over Oregon defender Tyree Robinson on his way to the endzone, and he ended up standing straight up on Ronbinson's shoulders before diving into the endzone. That touchdown made it 24-14 UCLA, and the Bruins went on to beat the Ducks, 31-14.


(Mis)Play of Week 8: "Last-Second Longhorns"


After falling just short against Oklahoma, Texas had another chance to take down a ranked opponent last week against Oklahoma. Down three in overtime, the Longhorns were already well within field-goal territory. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger rolled left on third down and floated one into the endzone, right into the hands of Oklahoma State defender Ramon Richards.


Performance of Week 8: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

Photo via Getty Images
26-37, 375 yards passing, 5 TD
The junior Mountaineer quarterback (and FBS leader in touchdown passes) helped guide WVU to victory in a tight shootout at Baylor (final score: 38-36).


Picks

Record
Last Week: 15-1   vs. Spread: 11-5   O/U: 8-8
Season: 121-26   vs. Spread: 67-57-1   O/U: 58-67

(Home Teams Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

#5 Wisconsin 42, Illinois 10 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: WISC -26   O/U: 49
Wisconsin has rolled through its schedule thus far, and I don't see that coming to an end Saturday in Champaign. The 2-5 Illini haven't won since September 9 and own the 113th-best rush defense in the country (118.7 yards allowed per game), which may prove problematic against Wisconsin's 15th-ranked rushing offense (256.9 yards per game).

#8 Miami 35, North Carolina 14 (Noon, ESPN2)
Line: MIAMI -20   O/U: 54
Miami, like Wisconsin, heads into a weak conference matchup on a roll. The 1-7 Tar Heels struggle defensively, allowing 451 total yards per game (110th in the nation). Miami averages 475 total yards of offense (20th in the nation), so it might be a long day in Chapel Hill for the Heels. 

#11 Oklahoma State 30, #22 West Virginia 35 (Noon, ABC)
Line: OKLAST -7.5   O/U: 73.5
For some reason, all the marquee games this weekend are during the day. It starts at noon, when Oklahoma State, fresh off an overtime escape in Texas, travels to West Virginia. I think Will Grier and the host Mountaineers prevail over Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys.

#2 Penn State 28, #6 Ohio State 35 (3:30 PM, FOX)
Line: OHIOST -6.5   O/U: 56.5
This may be the biggest game of the weekend. The Buckeyes will look to avenge a loss in Happy Valley last year, while the Nittany Lions will look to continue their undefeated season. The key will be whether Ohio State can stop Saquon Barkley, but I think J.T. Barrett will lead the Buckeyes to a victory in the Horseshoe.

#3 Georgia 27, Florida 10 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -13.5   O/U: 43.5
Georgia is yet another team that has (for the most part) rolled through its schedule thus far, but the Bulldogs could get a challenge from the Gators in Gainsville Saturday. That being said, momentum is strongly in Georgia's favor, and the Dogs offense is a lot more dangerous than Florida's.

#4 TCU 48, #25 Iowa State 24 (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)
Line: TCU -6.5   O/U: 48.5
Unbeaten TCU will look to avoid suffering the same fate as Oklahoma. I might be crazy for this (especially since they play in the Big 12), but I'm a believer in the Horned Frogs. They rank near the top nationally in both total offense and total defense. I'm not as much of a believer in the Cyclones.

#14 NC State 17, #9 Notre Dame 34 (3:30 PM, NBC)
Line: ND -7   O/U: 58.5
Speaking of believing in a team, I believe in Notre Dame. The one-loss Irish have a tough schedule and no room for error, but they are a legitimate Playoff contender as of right now. NC State is a decent team, but I think the Wolfpack may be a bit over-ranked. I don't expect ND to have much trouble with them in South Bend.

UCLA 42, #12 Washington 38 (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)
Line: WASH -17.5   O/U: 59.5
Washington, fresh off a bye, will look to get back on track after a loss to Arizona State two weeks ago. A key factor when looking for a potential upset is the quarterback, and Josh Rosen is a talented passer. The Bruins haven't been great, but I think Rosen and co. give the Huskies a second straight upset loss.

#16 Michigan State 27, Northwestern 20 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: MICHST -2.5   O/U: 40.5
This Big Ten game is kind of buried under the more appealing matchups this weekend, but this could be an interesting one. I'm don't think Michigan State is the 16th-best team in the country, and Northwestern isn't a horrible team. However, I do think the Spartans will get past the Wildcats.

Houston 21, #17 South Florida 42 (3:45 PM, ESPNU)
Line: SFLA -11   O/U: 56.5
The high-powered Bulls got a scare from Tulane last weekend, beating the Green Wave 34-28. Houston could also give South Florida a test, but I think Charlie Strong's high-powered offense will propel the host Bulls to an easy victory.

Austin Peay 3, UCF 44 (5:00 PM, ESPN3)
I have no idea how good Austin Peay is (it's a 5-3 FCS school), but I do know Central Florida has blown through its schedule. I'm not sure the Governors will be able to keep up with UCF's high-octane offense, which ranks 6th in the nation (537 yards per game). 

Duke 0, #13 Virginia Tech 30 (7:20 PM, ACCN)
Line: VATECH -15.5   O/U: 48.5
Duke could give Virginia Tech a battle, but I don't think that is how this plays out. I think the staunch Hokie defense (299 yards allowed per game, 12th in the country) will give the Blue Devils fits, and I don't think the Va Tech offense will have too much trouble at home.

Texas Tech 35, #10 Oklahoma 38 (8:00 PM, ABC/ESPN2)
Line: OKLA -20   O/U: 73.5
Although the primetime game may not be the most compelling one this week, it could be fun. Texas Tech got trounced by Iowa State last week, but the Raiders can put up points, and Oklahoma's last four games have been decided by single digits. I think the Sooners score another close victory Saturday night.

#15 Washington State 28, Arizona 30 (9:30 PM, PAC12)
Line: WASHST -3   O/U: 64.5
I'm on the Khalil Tate train. The sensational sophomore has run all over Colorado, UCLA and California, and I think he'll do the same to Washington State. Mike Leach's team will put up points, but I think Rich Rodriguez's team will get it done at home.

#21 USC 38, Arizona State 24 (10:45 PM, ESPN)
Line: USC -3.5   O/U: 59
The night ends with some #PAC12AfterDark, and it could get weird with these two teams. A week after upsetting Washington, the 4-3 Sun Devils easily dispatched of Utah. Meanwhile, USC got destroyed by Notre Dame. Despite all that, I think the Trojans bounce back Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon

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