Week 3 College Football Picks

Lamar Jackson will be looking to make a statement against Clemson Saturday night

You ever have moments when you just put your face in your palms and say to yourself, "What was I thinking"? I have those moments all the time. Whether it's forgetting something I had already known, then remembering it and thinking "Oh yeah, that's right", Tweeting something and then deleting it an hour later when I realize it doesn't completely make sense, or finding out that I've been doing something wrong the whole time.

All of those things happened to me in the past week (plus I have those moments every week when I watch games that I've predicted to go one way go a completely different way). The last instance has to do with the betting lines for the games. So because of that (and because I had someone ask me how betting lines work this week), I'm going to give you (and myself) a brief overview of how sports betting works.

Sportsbooks in Vegas determine betting lines early in the week based on many different factors, and lines often change as gametime approaches, due to things such as weather and injuries. Lines can be somewhat difficult to read (I didn't know what they meant at first). For example, imagine Illinois and South Florida are playing (you don't have to imagine it, because those two teams actually play this week), and it says "USF -17.5". That means South Florida is favored by 17.5 points. If you think the Bulls will beat the Illini by 18 points or more, that means you think they will "cover". If you think USF will win by 17 points or less (or you think Illinois will win), that means you don't expect South Florida to cover. The over/under, meanwhile, is pretty straight forward. If the over/under of Illinois-South Florida is 56, that means sportsbooks expect the combined total points scored to be 56. If you think more than 56 combined points will be scored, you take the over. If you think the two teams won't reach that total, you take the under. Simple enough.

Now comes the part I've been doing wrong. Often times, sportsbooks will set lines and over/unders with a ".5", since teams can't score half a point. The reasoning for that? If, for example, the line for South Florida-Illinois was USF -17, and the Bulls win 17-0 (I was going to go with a different score, but this is the easiest to do math on, and I don't love doing math), that means they hit the exact line. I had thought that meant South Florida would have covered, but actually, that's called a "push", meaning it's basically a wash, and no money is lost or won. So, from now on, my "Record" section will have three columns for "vs. Spread" and "Over/Under". Instead of just W-L, it'll be W-L-PUSH. Hey, hindsight is 20/20, as they say (whoever "they" is).

(Note: actual sports betting is only legal in certain area in the United States)

(Note: many sportsbooks do not have lines for games between an FBS team and an FCS team, including the one that provides ESPN with lines and over/unders)

Play of Week 2: "Oh My Godwin"

Another week, another acrobatic one-handed catch. This time it was a touchdown catch by Georgia receiver Terry Godwin in the second quarter of Georgia's Top 25 matchup with Notre Dame in South Bend. The catch tied the game at 10. On 3rd and Goal, Godwin was locked up with Notre Dame cornerback Julian Love. He went up for a jump ball on the right side of the endzone, extending his right hand and pressing the ball to his shoulder as he came down. It was originally ruled incomplete, but after review, the call was reversed. That catch helped the Bulldogs squeak past the Irish 20-19.

(Mis)Play of Week 2: "3rd and 93"

Louisiana Tech did not have the greatest of nights Saturday against Mississippi State. It didn't get any better when the Bulldogs faced 3rd and Goal from the Mississippi State seven yard line, down 57-14 in the fourth quarter. A bad snap paved the way for hilarity. First, Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith tried to dive on the ball, but it squirted out of his grasp. Then multiple Mississippi State defenders attempted (and failed) to pick up the ball, as it continued evading them all the way down the field, until finally, Louisiana Tech receiver Cee Jay Powell corralled the squirmy ball at the other seven yard line, mercifully ending the most ridiculous play I've ever seen.

(Home Team Listed Last)

Record
Last Week: 14-2   vs. Spread: 5-8   Over/Under: 8-5
Season: 28-5

Friday
Illinois 14, #22 South Florida 28 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: USF -17.5   O/U: 56
After South Florida's game last week was postponed due to Hurricane Irma, there were questions whether the Bulls could get this game in. They will be able to, and it'll signal USF's first Power 5 test after unimpressive wins over Stony Brook and San Jose State. Quentin Flowers (535 total yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) hasn't looked like the Heisman sleeper many (including myself) thought he might be, and Charlie Strong's team has struggled early in the game against its first two opponents. The Illini are a Big Ten team, but they also beat Ball State and Western Kentucky by a combined 16 points. USF may start slow again, but the Bulls should be able to cruise to 3-0.

Air Force 7, #7 Michigan 34 (Noon, BTN)
Line: MICH -24   O/U: 47.5
Jim Harbaugh's squad has looked good through the first two games of the season, especially the defense, which held Florida to 17 points and Cincinnati to 14 points, forcing five combined turnovers. Wilton Speight rebounded from a pair of pick-sixes in the Florida game with 221 yards and two touchdowns against Cincy. The offense hasn't looked quite as good as the defense, and the Wolverines kept the Bearcats in it until the fourth quarter last week, but Air Force is not as good as Florida or Cincinnati.

#9 Oklahoma State 38, Pittsburgh 17 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: OKST -12.5   O/U: 64.5
Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys have cruised to blowouts of Tulsa and South Alabama, and they'll be looking for another rout Saturday in Pittsburgh. Rudolph has completed 45 of 62 passes on the season for six touchdowns and zero interceptions. On the other side of things, Pitt quarterback Max Browne has thrown for 278 total yards, one touchdown, and two picks. The Panthers beat FCS Youngstown State in overtime, then went to Happy Valley and got beat by in-state rival (and Playoff contender) Penn State. They may have an easier time against Oklahoma State than they did against Penn State, but not much easier.

#25 UCLA 45, Memphis 27 (Noon, ABC)
Line: UCLA -3   O/U: 73
Josh Rose Bowl Rosen has looked like a legitimate Heisman contender so far for the Bruins, leading a historic comeback against Texas A&M, then thrashing Hawaii. J.R. has thrown for 820 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions, and the UCLA offense has scored 45 points and 56 points, respectively, in its first two games. The Tigers of Memphis have only played one game, as there game last week against Central Florida was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Memphis beat Louisiana-Monroe 37-29 in its first game. Rosen and company shouldn't have much trouble moving on the Tigers. 

#10 Wisconsin 32, BYU 10 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: Wis -16   O/U: 41
I don't know why I had so much faith in BYU, a team that is now 1-2 on the season after a 19-13 loss to Utah last week. On the other hand, it's not like Utah and LSU (the two teams BYU has lost to) are bad teams. Regardless, the Cougars have to deal with Wisconsin (a team that is better than both LSU and Utah) Saturday afternoon. Wisky hasn't played anybody very challenging (FAU and Utah State), but the Badgers are still among the better teams in the Big Ten and a force to be reckoned with, especially in the run game (295.5 rushing yards per game, just 95.5 rushing yards allowed per game). BYU will have trouble with that.

#16 Virginia Tech 35, East Carolina 3 (3:30 PM, CBSSN)
Line: VT -23.5   O/U: 60
This is a pretty easy prediction to make (well, several of these games are). Virginia Tech is 2-0 and coming off a shutout (against Delaware, but a shutout nonetheless), while East Carolina is 0-2, losing by 20 point and 36 points, respectively. You just have to look at West Virginia to see the stark contrast between these two teams. WVU played the Hokies in Week 1, losing 31-24. The Mountaineers then went home and destroyed the Pirates 56-20. East Carolina will have fits scoring against this Tech defense, but I'll give the Pirates more than Delaware scored.

SMU 32, #20 TCU 48 (3:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: TCU -18   O/U: 65
TCU has breezed by Jacksonville State and Arkansas, showing a lot of offense (91 total points, 451.5 yards per game), as usual. What has surprised me, however, has been the Horned Frog defense. After shutting out Jacksonville State, they held Arkansas to seven points. TCU has allowed just 166 yards per game, meaning the Frogs have given up less yards in two games combined than they've gained in one game. SMU has eclipsed 50 points in each of its first two games (albeit against Stephen F. Austin and North Texas), so I think TCU gives up a few more points in this game. I don't, however, expect the Mustangs to beat the Horned Frogs.

#23 Tennessee 13, #24 Florida 20 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: FLA -4.5   O/U: 49.5
The Gators were also blocked out by Hurricane Irma, so they had to sit and wait to go out and try to fix their scoring-challenged offense. Luckily, Tennessee, a team that gave up 535 rushing yards to Georgia Tech, comes to town Saturday. Yes, the Vols are 2-0 and ranked 23rd in the nation, but they needed overtime to beat Georgia Tech, and they played Indiana State last week. This will probably be a defensive duel, and I think Florida will be the last one standing.

Mercer 0, #15 Auburn 35 (4:00 PM, SECN)
Ah, the weekly "FCS Cupcake" game. Auburn comes off a missed opportunity against Clemson, a game in which the Tigers could not find the endzone, falling to the defending champs in a defensive battle 14-6. They get to take out their anger on the Mercer Bears, who are 1-1, beating the Jacksonville University Dolphins 48-7, and losing to the Wofford Terriers 28-27. Why do I feel like FCS teams have better nicknames than FBS teams? Anyway, Auburn in a rout.

Army 14, #8 Ohio State 48 (4:30 PM, Fox)
Line: OSU -30.5   O/U: 53
When I originally published this article, I forgot to include this game. After Ohio State's showing last week, I wouldn't be mad about not including them. Army is 2-0, but Ohio State is angry and looking to get back on track. J.T. Barrett and company should do just that Saturday in the Horseshoe.

Oregon State 14, #21 Washington State 40 (5:30 PM, PAC12N)
Line: WSU -21   O/U: 64
We have a Pac-12 battle at the good ol' 5:30 PM kickoff time up in Washington State. The Cougars had to go three overtimes to get rid of pesky Boise State last week. They shouldn't have to go any overtimes this week. 1-1 Oregon State has given up 483.7 yards per game and 46 points per game, which does not bode well against WSU's Air Raid offense. I'm going to predict five touchdowns for Washington State quarterback Luke Falk on Saturday.

Tulane 14, #2 Oklahoma 48 (6:00 PM)
Line: OKLA -35   O/U: 55.5
Oklahoma is feeling good coming off a beating of Ohio State in Columbus last Saturday night. Baker Mayfield is feeling real good. Tulane is feeling slightly less good (I would imagine). The Green Wave (why would anybody call themselves a dirty wave?) lost 23-21 to Navy last week. They've averaged over 200 yards and 12 points less per game than the Sooners. I'm going with the team that's feeling good over the team that's feeling less good. Remember: Feel good, play good.

Colorado State 6, #1 Alabama 42 (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Line: ALA -28.5   O/U: 53.5
CAN I PLEASE GET A GAME THAT MIGHT BE CLOSE?? Alabama followed up an opening week victory over Florida State with a trouncing of Fresno State, and now the Tide get 1-1 Colorado State. CSU has averaged 509 yards per game, but the Rams have played Colorado and Abilene Christian. I promise they won't eclipse 300 against Alabama (the Tide have averaged 262 yards allowed per game). The Tide will roll.

#12 LSU 31, Mississippi State 14 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: LSU -8.5   O/U: 51
This game actually has a chance to be a good one. The Bulldogs host SEC rival LSU, and they lost by just three to the Tigers last season. Mississippi State is 2-0, having beaten up on Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech. LSU is also 2-0, having beaten up on BYU and Chattanooga. I could see this being a real tight one, but I believe the Tigers are the more talented team, and I believe they will leave Starkville with a win.

Georgia State 3, #5 Penn State 48 (7:30 PM, BTN)
Line: PSU -37   O/U: 54.5

I'm tired of typing, and there isn't much to type about in a game between one of the top five teams in the country and an 0-1 Sun Belt team anyway, so here are Saquon Barkley highlights from last week:

Samford 12, #13 Georgia 32 (7:30 PM, SECN)
This one looks like a snoozer too (and it probably will be), but Samford is 2-0 (those wins came against fellow FCS schools Kennesaw State and West Alabama), and I think the team will come out ready to prove that they are the better Bulldogs. Unfortunately for them, they are most certainly not the better Bulldogs, as Georgia will show them Saturday.

#18 Kansas State 42, Vanderbilt 28 (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: KSU -4   O/U: 51
The battle between the unbeaten Wildcats and Commodores could be close. Each team will represent the other's first real test of the season (a list of the teams these two have played: Central Arkansas, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee State, Alabama A&M). Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has led Kansas State's strong offense, throwing for 511 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions (and running for another 111 and a score). Kansas State will outlast Vandy.

#3 Clemson 32, #14 Louisville 35 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: CLEM -3   O/U: 58.5
The marquee meeting of the weekend comes in the form of a rematch of a key game last season, in which eventual national champion Clemson held on to beat Louisville 42-36 in Death Valley. It was a battle between eventual Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and eventual National Champ Deshaun Watson. Watson is now in the NFL (he got his first NFL win Thursday night, when he led the Texans to a win over Cincinnati), but the Tigers are still one of the top teams in the country, especially on defense. They've given up zero touchdowns and just nine total points, while allowing 118.5 yards per game. But Lamar Jackson is a different challenge. He currently looks like the favorite to defend his Heisman win, throwing for 771 yards and five touchdowns. I think Clemson might be the better team, but the Cardinals almost won last season against Deshaun Watson, and now Jackson and the Cards don't have Watson to deal with. I think that, coupled with home field advantage and a desire for revenge, culminate in a big Louisville win.

Texas 21, #4 USC 45 (8:30 PM, Fox)
Line: USC -15.5   O/U: 67
Texas is not all the way back yet. Tom Herman and the Longhorns shutout San Jose State after falling to Maryland to start the season. They may hang in there with USC, but Sam Darnold and the Trojans showed they are a legitimate title contender with a dominant 42-24 win against Stanford last week. Texas, which gave up 51 points to Maryland, will have trouble containing the Trojans.

Fresno State 20, #6 Washington 42 (9:30 PM, PAC12N)
Line: WAS -33.5   O/U: 56
Out west, Washington hosts the Fresno State Bulldogs, who just faced the best team in the country. They lost to Alabama 41-10. This one probably won't be much closer, but I think Fresno State could hang around for a little bit. They've actually had a tougher schedule (so far) than the Huskies, who have played (and easily beaten) Rutgers and Montana. However, Washington is by far the better team, and should fly past Fresno.

#19 Stanford 28, San Diego State 31 (10:30 PM, CBSSN)
Line: STAN -9   O/U: 48
Wild things happen during Pac-12 After Dark, so this meeting of Pac-12 teams in Southern California Saturday night could be a game worth tuning into. The 19th-ranked Cardinal are coming off a 42-24 loss to USC, while San Diego State beat Arizona State 30-20 last week. The Aztecs lost Donnel Pumphrey to the NFL, but Rasaad Penny has come right in and filled his role admirably. Penny ranks second in the nation in rushing yards with 413 through two games. That isn't a good thing for the Cardinal, who gave up 307 yards on the ground to USC. Stanford has a talented rusher of its own in Bryce Love, who ranks 5th in the nation with 340 rushing yards, but SDSU has only allowed 50.5 rushing yards per game (I know, small sample size). I'm going to go with the Aztecs in the late night upset.

Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Fantasy Football Week 1 Preview (and Picks!)

Starting this week, there will be football on almost everyday. Yes, the NFL is back, and despite all its problems (Roger Goodell, concussions, etc.), it's still quite entertaining. The entertainment began Thursday night, when the defending champion New England Patriots got a full dose of Alex Smith (28-35, 368 yards passing, 4 TD), Tyreek Hill (7 catches, 133 yards receiving, 1 TD), and Kareem Hunt (17 carries, 148 yards rushing, 1 TD; 5 catches, 98 yards receiving, 2 TD) in a 42-27 Chiefs win. The real fun comes Sunday at 1:00, when the NFL season starts en masse. I'm here to guess (not wildly, though) the victors and provide some players I think we'll perform well for your fantasy team (and mine, hopefully). I know this kind of article is not very original (there are tons of "Start/Sit" columns everywhere, and ESPN's Matthew Berry does a weekly "Love/Hate" column that I always make part of my weekly fantasy prep), but I'm not a very original person. The most original I get is at the end, when I give five fantasy football team names I've come up with (with logos).

Picks (Home Team Listed Last)

Sunday
Steelers 27, Browns 20 (1:00 PM, CBS) Line: PIT -9.5  Over/Under: 46.5
Jets 6, Bills 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: BUF -8.5  Over/Under: 40
Falcons 34, Bears 17 (1:00 PM, Fox)  Line: ATL -6.5  Over/Under: 49
Ravens 20, Bengals 23 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: CIN -3  Over/Under: 42.5
Cardinals 31, Lions 28 (1:00 PM, Fox)  Line: ARI -2  Over/Under: 48
Jaguars 16, Texans 30 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: HOU -5  Over/Under: 39.5
Raiders 28, Titans 21 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: TEN -2.5  Over/Under: 51
Eagles 30, Washington 31 (1:00 PM, Fox) Line: PHI -1.5  Over/Under: 48
Colts 10, Rams 24 (4:05 PM, CBS)  Line: LAR -3.5  Over/Under: 41.5
Seahawks 32, Packers 38 (4:25 PM, Fox)  Line: GB -3  Over/Under: 51
Panthers 35, 49ers 14 (4:25 PM, Fox)  Line: CAR -5.5  Over/Under: 48
Giants 28, Cowboys 34 (8:30 PM, NBC)  Line: DAL -4  Over/Under: 48
Monday
Saints 35, Vikings 24 (7:10 PM, ESPN)  Line: MIN -3  Over/Under: 48
Chargers 17, Broncos 14 (10:20 PM, ESPN)  Line: DEN -3  O/U: 43 

Fantasy
Here are some guys I think could help out your fantasy football team this week. As I mentioned earlier, this is a lot like Matthew Berry's "Love/Hate" column (except it's just the "Love", because I want to spread love, not hate). These are guys I think will exceed expectations this week, and I usually try to focus on guys who aren't obvious starts (like, say, Aaron Rodgers).

(Note: players are listed in no particular order)

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. 49ers)
Cam is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, but he's expected to play. Cam always bring fantasy value thanks to his rushing ability, and this week he gets to face the worst rushing defense in the NFL in 2016. The last time Carolina played the Niners (September 18, 2016), Newton threw for 353 yards and four touchdowns (and added 37 yards on the ground). I don't know if he'll throw for four scores again, but I'd bet on at least two TD's and 300 yards.

Derek Carr, Raiders (@ Titans)
Two potential breakout quarterbacks (both in real life and in fantasy) meet Sunday. I'll get to the other one in a minute, but let's start with Carr, who took a step forward for Oakland last season (3,937 yards passing, 28 TD, 6 INT), and will look to take another step forward this season. The Titans were 30th in the NFL in passing defense last season, and although Carr didn't go off when he played Tennessee last season (he threw for 249 yards and a touchdown, along with a pick), I'm pretty confident he'll have a strong game to kick off the 2017 campaign.

Marcus Mariota, Titians (vs. Raiders)
On the other sideline, Mariota also is looking to take another step forward after a solid 2016 (3,426 yards passing, 26 TD, 9 INT). Derek Carr gets more opportunities to throw the ball (due to Tennessee's run-heavy offense), but Mariota provides more opportunity with his legs (he had 349 yards rushing and two scores on the ground last season, although he also put the ball on the ground nine times). Plus, he has some more help this year in Corey Davis and Eric Decker, and he should be able to find openings against Oakland (which was 24th in passing defense last season).

Carson Palmer, Cardinals (@ Lions)
The 37-year-old is still kickin', and he still provides a solid under-the-radar option in fantasy. After throwing for 4,233 yards and 26 touchdowns (along with 14 interceptions) in 2016, Palmer kicks off 2017 against Detroit, a team that is never near the top of the league in pass defense (19th last season). He also has all of his receiving weapons back, and is a solid middle-of-the-pack option at quarterback on Sunday.

Sam Bradford, Vikings (vs. Saints)
If you're looking for a sleeper pick at quarterback this week (or a money-saving choice in daily fantasy), look no further than Mr. Bradford. First of all, he averaged 258.5 passing yards (and 1.3 touchdowns) per game last season, and he had a couple big weeks. Second of all (and most importantly), he faces the New Orleans defense, which was last in the league last season.


Running Back

Devonta Freeman, Falcons (@ Bears)
Overall, I don't expect Freeman to perform as well as he did last season. He has Tevin Coleman continuing to push for carries, and it'll just be hard for the Atlanta offense in general to replicate last year's Super Bowl team. However, I think he'll have a big game this week against the Bears. Chicago was 27th in rush defense last season, and I believe he'll rack up yards (and maybe a touchdown or two) early.

Isaiah Crowell, Browns (vs. Steelers)
I do expect a big year from the Crow. Hue Jackson has already stated that he's going to be more dedicated to the run this season, and with a rookie under center, Crowell will see plenty of carries. Plus, Cleveland spent big on the offensive line in the offseason. Pittsburgh isn't awful against the run (it finished 13th in rush defense in 2016), but last time these two teams met (January 1), Crowell went off for 152 yards on the ground. With Deshone Kizer starting his first NFL (regular season) game, Cleveland will go to Crowell early and often. 

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (@ 49ers)
The Carolina coaching staff seems to like McCaffrey a lot, and apparently even has a separate package of plays for him. This is good news for his fantasy owners, as McCaffrey should get a majority of the backfield work (both on the ground and through the air). Want more good news? He gets to debut against the 49ers, whose run defense (or lack thereof) I have already mentioned.

Todd Gurley, Rams (vs. Colts)
After a fantastic rookie season, Gurley disappointed fantasy owners who drafted him high last season, but his struggles were partly due to the struggles of the entire Rams offense. While the offense still might struggle this season, it should at least be a little better, and Gurley will once again be the workhorse running back. A meeting with the Colts, who were 25th in the NFL in rush defense last season, should lead to a big game for Gurley.

Melvin Gordon, Chargers (@ Broncos)
Gordon broke out with 997 yards rushing and ten touchdowns last season, and those numbers may be on the rise. He'll continue to get the majority of the workload, along with work in the passing game (he had 41 catches for 419 yards and two scores in 2016). San Diego's L.A.'s Monday night opponent ranked 28th in the league in rush defense last season.


Wide Receivers

Terrelle Pryor, Washington (vs. Eagles)
The Pryor known as a quarterback prior to prioritizing being a receiver is now in Washington after being in Cleveland prior to this year. He gives Captain Kirk Cousins a big, athletic target, and I expect him to make an impact right away. In last year's season opener, Pryor had three catches for 68 yards, and that was his first (regular season) NFL game at receiver. Plus, it was with RGIII at quarterback. Kirk Cousins (RG's former backup) should provide more stability. Oh, also, the team he played in last season's opener? The Philadelphia Eagles.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (@ Packers)
After Seattle traded Jermaine Kearse and cut preseason star Kasen Williams, I wondered to myself, "Who's Russell Wilson going to throw to besides Doug Baldwin?" (the answer is Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, among others). But Baldwin should once again lead the Seahawks in receptions and receiving yards, and this week he faces a Green Bay team that was 31st in pass defense last season.

Corey Coleman, Browns (vs. Steelers)
Yes, I have two Cleveland Browns on this list, because I am a believer in Believeland. The Browns signed Kenny Britt and drafted David Njoku in the offseason, but neither had a great preseason, so Coleman remains the clear number one guy. I don't expect Deshone Kizer to go deep a whole lot, but when he does, it'll probably be to Coleman. And I expect him to connect on at least one deep shot.

Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (@ Vikings)
Willie Snead is suspended the first two games, so that means Teddy Ginn is the go-to man in the slot. While drops are a problem, Ginn has the speed and big-play ability to have a good day. He'll see plenty of work in New Orleans' pass-heavy offense, and I think he could make a solid play in daily fantasy, or a solid flex play in season-long fantasy.

Kevin Benjamin, Panthers (@ 49ers)
Benjamin has slimmed down, and he looked pretty good during the preseason. He's still Cam Newton's top target (aside from tight end Greg Olson), and we could see a bounce-back campaign from him. It all starts against San Francisco's defense, which I've already discussed twice (in case you missed it, they're not good).


Tight End

Delanie Walker, Titans (vs. Raiders)
I have Delanie Walker on all three of my fantasy teams, so I guess you could say I'm a fan of his work. A step forward for Marcus Mariota means a step forward for Walker. Although the additions of Corey Davis and Eric Decker may take targets away from him, Walker is still the go-to guy, and I think he'll definitely be that guy in the first game.

Jordan Reed, Washington (vs. Eagles)
Yes, I know I have both Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jordan Reed on this list. Don't worry, there's enough to go around. In fact, with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (Washington's top two receivers last season) gone, there's a whole lot to go around. It'll be devided up among Pryor, Reed, Jamison Crowder (the top returning receiver), and sophomore Josh Doctson. I expect a solid first game from Reed. 

Charles Clay, Bills (vs. Jets)
May I interest you in a tight end? His name is an alliteration, which is always a plus. He plays for a team that lost Sammy Watkins (but gained Jordan Matthews). He led the team in targets and catches last season, and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. Oh, and best of all, he plays the lowly New York Jets this weekend. If anything sold you on him, it was probably the last sentence.

Zach Miller, Bears (vs. Falcons)
This may be a tougher sell, what with Chicago's quarterback situation (Mike Glennon? Really?). However, Miller was third on the team in receiving last season, and the two ahead of him were Cameron Meredith (out for the season) and Alshon Jeffery (now on the Eagles). And the Bears will be throwing a lot to try to keep up with Atlanta.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. Saints)
If I'm putting Sam Bradford on this list, I'm obviously going to put Bradford's favorite target on here too. Rudolph was targeted 132 times last season, 21 more than the next-closest Viking receiver (Stefon Diggs). He'll be oft-targeted Monday night against New Orleans, and I expect at least one of those targets to result in a touchdown.


Defense

Rams (vs. Colts)
The Rams have a solid defense (they were 9th in total defense in 2016), but that's not why they're on this list. They're on this list because they face a Colts team quarterbacked by Scott Tolzien. With Andrew Luck not yet back from injury, Indianapolis will go with the former Badger (I mean that he went to Wisconsin, not that he was an actual badger at one point and somehow magically turned into a human) whose career stat line is: 23-37, 216 yards passing, one touchdown, two picks, and a fumble. I'm counting on at least two turnovers Sunday.

Texans (vs. Jaguars)
It's kind of silly for me to list the Texans, one of the best defenses in the league. If you have Houston's defense, you're starting Houston's defense. If you don't have Houston's defense, you're not getting Houston's defense. I have the Texans defense on this list because I just want to emphasize how confident I am in them this weekend. They are facing Chad Henne, a guy who has played a total of four games the last three years.

Falcons (@ Bears)
Like the first two teams, the Falcons are here because of the quarterback they're up against. Atlanta gets Mike Glennon, a guy who got a three-year, $45 million contract because he hasn't been horrible in 21 career games. Jordan Howard may find some success on the ground against ATL, but the Falcons should give Glennon trouble in the passing game.

Bills (vs. Jets)
Buffalo's front seven should be salivating at this matchup. The Bills get the honor of hosting the worst team in the National Football League, one that will be rolling out Josh McCown, a guy who was a backup in Cleveland, at quarterback. I took a quick look at New York's offense, and I think Tim Tebow might be one of the top five scoring threats on this team. LONG LIVE TIM TEBOW.

Chargers (@ Broncos)
Joey Bosa and company face off against Denver, a team that was 27th in the league in total offense last season, on Monday night. The last time these two teams met at Mile High (October 30, 2016), the Chargers had three turnovers, including a pick-six (they also threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, but that's beside the point), and I expect strong defense again this time around in Denver.

Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com

5 Fantasy Football Team Names (and Logos)
I've gotten into the business of making logos to go with my silly fantasy football team names (which are always player-based puns), and here are the five I've created (I use the first three for my three fantasy football teams). I'm a very amateur graphic designer (I created these through SnapChat), so they aren't the highest-quality logos. Feel free to use any of the names/logos.

1. Red Hot Jabrili Peppers 

2. The Real Slim Shady

3. Delanie Walker Texas Ranger

4. Gone With the Winston

5. Whiteing on the Rawls

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 2 College Football Picks

Heisman hopefuls J.T. Barrett (right) and Baker Mayfield (left) face off Saturday night in Columbus

It's easy to underestimate or overestimate things in life. It's human nature to sometimes expect less or more than the actual reality. People are biased, and those biases, plus personal past experiences, lead to over or under estimations. For example, If I have done poorly on a certain professor's tests in the past (and have heard bad things about his tests), I'm probably more likely to underestimate how well I do on the next test, no matter how much I study. Everybody is off on their estimations sometimes. You can overestimate how much someone likes you. You can underestimate how well you did on a test. You can overestimate how may donuts you can eat in one sitting.

You can also underestimate and overestimate college football teams. That's what I did in several instances last week. An estimate is an educated guess, and that is basically what I'm doing when I do these weekly picks.

So with that in mind, I apologize to fans of teams I underestimated last week: Purdue, Western Michigan, Maryland, Stony Brook, and LSU. As for teams I overestimated (South Florida, Louisville, BYU, App State), I have nothing to say.

I'll try to better estimate teams this week.

Play of Week 1: "Some People Call Him the Space Aggie"

New Mexico State wide receiver Jaleel Scott made an incredible one-handed catch last Thursday night against Arizona State. He posted up ASU defensive back Kobe Williams using his left arm, and leaped into the air to grab the ball with his right hand, coming down with it in the back left corner of the endzone. Scott led all players with eight catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns, but NMSU fell to the Sun Devils 37-31.

(Home Team Listed Last)

Record
Last Week: 14-3

Friday

#11 Oklahoma State 50, South Alabama 21 (8:00 PM, ESPN2)

Line: OKST -28  Over/Under: 67.5

Mason Rudolph started off the season on the right foot last week against Tulsa, throwing for 303 yards and three touchdowns in a 59-24 Oklahoma State route. This week will probably be more of the same. The USA Jaguars are a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team coming off a 20-point loss to Ole Miss.

Saturday

#21 South Florida 35, Connecticut 13 (10:30 AM, ESPN News)

Line: USF -17  Over/Under: 66

Charlie Strong's first two games at South Florida haven't been the smoothest, but the Bulls are 2-0, and they shouldn't have trouble improving to 3-0 against a UConn team that won its first game since October 8, 2016, last week vs. Holy Cross. It had been so long for the Huskies, in fact, that they needed a little extra practice in the victory formation.

Cincinnati 7, #8 Michigan 42 (Noon, ABC)

Line: MICH -34.5  Over/Under: 49.5
The Wolverines used a big second half to cruise by a ranked Florida team (albeit one depleted by suspensions) last week, but they need better play from Wilton Speight, who was 11-25 and threw two pick-sixes against the Gators, and was even benched at one point for John O'Korn. Regardless of how well Speight plays, however, Michigan should have little trouble at home against Cincy.

Florida Atlantic 10, #9 Wisconsin 42 (Noon, BTN)

Line: WIS -32  Over/Under: 58.5
When the most noteworthy thing about your team is the fact that it's coached by Lane Kiffin, you probably don't have a very good team. The Owls couldn't stop Navy last week (they gave up 526 yards in a 42-19 loss to the Midshipmen), and they probably won't be able to stop the Badgers, who accrued 478 total yards in a 59-10 stomping of Utah State last week.

#17 Louisville 35, North Carolina 28 (Noon, ESPN)

Line: LOU -10  Over/Under: 62

Louisville looked like they might fall victim to Purdue, a team that looked pretty good in the first week under Jeff Brohm, and the Cardinals shouldn't take UNC lightly either. However, the Tar Heels lost quarterback Mitch(ell) Trubisky to the NFL after last season, and lost the first game of this season 35-30 to Cal. Lamar Jackson and co. might make it close, but they'll survive once again.

Charlotte 6, #19 Kansas State 52 (Noon)

Line: KSU -36  Over/Under: 57.5

No, Charlotte is not an FCS team (they were in 2013 and 2014, then moved to FBS in 2015). The 49ers play in Conference USA. This does not mean they will give Bill Snyder's team a challenge, though. They lost to Eastern Michigan 24-7 last week. Meanwhile, K-State is coming off a pummeling of Central Arkansas (55-19), which IS an FCS team.

Fresno State 7, #1 Alabama 56 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)

Line: ALA -43.5  Over/Under: 53

I was very tempted not to write anything for this game, but then I wouldn't be fulfilling my duty as a writer. So let's talk about Bama's performance last week in a 24-7 victory over Florida State. The Tide defense had three sacks and nine tackles-for-loss, the offense ran for 173 yards, and Jalen Hurts threw the ball 18 times (completing ten), accumulating 96 yards and a touchdown. The offensive stats will be a lot more prolific this week.

Pittsburgh 13, #4 Penn State 38 (3:30 PM, ABC)

Line: PSU -22  Over/Under: 66.5

This in-state rivalry looks to be pretty one-sided this year. The Nittany Lions are a title contender, and Heisman candidate Saquon Barkley ran for 172 yards and two touchdowns in a 52-0 rout of Akron last week. The Panthers barely squeaked by FCS powerhouse Youngstown State in double-overtime.

Delaware 10, #18 Virginia Tech 32 (3:30 PM, ACCN)

VT got a big first win last Sunday against West Virginia, and now the Hokies get a breather of sorts against FCS Delaware. Yes, Delaware is the alma mater of Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco, and yes, the Blue Hens did win last weekend. But Joe Flacco isn't walking through any doors (plus, he's not even elite), and that win was a 22-3 victory over Delaware State.

#23 TCU 55, Arkansas 42 (3:30 PM, CBS)

Line: TCU -3  Over/Under: 58.5

This should be one of the closer games of the afternoon, and it will also probably be a high-scoring affair. Kenny "Trill" Hill threw for 206 yards and four touchdowns in TCU's 63-0 dismantling of Jacksonville State. The Razorbacks (who beat Florida A&M 49-7 last week) aren't Jacksonville State, but I still think the Horned Frogs get past them.

Indiana State 3, #25 Tennessee 45 (4:00 PM, SECN)

Yet another FBS-FCS affair, Tennessee will face Larry Bird's alma mater coming off a wild double-overtime win over Georgia Tech. The Vols need to do a better job of stopping the run (they gave up 535 rushing yards to Tech's triple-option attack), and they probably will against an Indiana State team that gained 160 yards on the ground in a 22-20 loss to Eastern Illinois last week.

#13 Auburn 34, #3 Clemson 31 (7:00 PM, ESPN)

Line: CLEM -5  Over/Under: 53.5

Now comes the meat of this weekend's schedule. This matchup of Tigers might end up being the most entertaining game of the weekend. Jarrett Stidham had a decent debut (202 total yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) in Auburn's 41-7 beating of Georgia Southern last week, but like usual, the running backs stole the show, as Kam Martin and Kerryon Johnson each ran for 136 yards and a touchdown. Kelly Bryant was more than decent (313 total yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) in his Clemson debut last week against Kent State (a 56-3 win), and the team gained 353 yards on the ground (two more than Auburn). Despite this (and the fact that Clemson is home), I think the lethal Auburn rushing attack will carry the Tigers (the one's who are also Eagles, apparently) to an upset.

Chattanooga 0, #12 LSU 38 (7:30 PM, SECN)

This matchup might end up being the least entertaining game of the weekend. LSU is one of the teams I underestimated last weekend, as the Tigers shutout BYU after I picked the Cougars to pull off the upset. This week, I'm counting on LSU to pitch another shutout against FCS Chattanooga.

#15 Georgia 28, #24 Notre Dame 27 (7:30 PM, NBC)

Line: ND -4  Over/Under: 57

Notre Dame already looks better than last year, starting the season off with a win (49-16 over Temple). New quarterback Brandon Wimbush looked good, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns, and adding another 106 yards and a score on the ground. Running back Josh Adams also looked good, rushing for 161 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. The key for Notre Dame will be stopping Georgia running back Nick Chubb, who had 15 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Appalachian State last week. I think Chubb will cause problems for the Irish, and the Bulldogs will escape with a nail-biting victory. 

#5 Oklahoma 28, #2 Ohio State 42 (7:30 PM, ABC)

Line: OSU -7  Over/Under: 65

Last season, the Buckeyes went to Norman and ran away with a 45-24 win over Baker Mayfield and the Sooners. Revenge will be on the minds of Baker and co. when they travel to Columbus this weekend. Ohio State struggled in the first half against Indiana last week (especially in the passing game), so Mayfield may find some success early. However, the host Buckeyes just have too much talent for Oklahoma to handle.

Montana 7, #7 Washington 50 (8:00 PM, Pac-12)

In a battle of Grizzlies and Huskies, the Huskies have the clear advantage. Montana did beat fellow FCS team Valpo 45-23 last week, but this week they face seventh-ranked Washington, a team that also beat up on a FCS team last week (okay, it was Rutgers, but Rutgers is basically an FCS team). Jake Browning and the host Huskies should handily beat the Griz.

#14 Stanford 31, #6 USC 38 (8:30 PM, Fox)

Line: USC -6  Over/Under: 55.5

These may be the two best teams in the Pac-12 (although the state of Washington may have some contentions with that), and they meet Saturday night in the Coliseum. The Trojans got a scare from P.J. Fleck-less Western Michigan last week, while Stanford had no such scare in a rout of Rice. Heisman candidate Sam Darnold didn't have Heisman stats against Western (23-33, 289 yards, 2 INT), but he should put up better stats this weekend in what might be a fun (and close) game.

Boise State 30, #20 Washington State 45 (10:30 PM, ESPN)

Line: WSU -10  Over/Under: 58.5

Per usual, we end the night in Pullman, Washington, where the Cougars take on the Broncos. Boise State isn't the threat it was a few years ago, but the Blue Field Broncos still shouldn't be taken lightly. I don't think Mike Leach's team will take them lightly, and Luke Falk and friends should fly to victory.



Stats, Information, Lines, and Over/Unders via ESPN.com

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 1 College Football Picks

Deondre Francois (left) and Jalen Hurts (right) square off Saturday night

It's that time of year again. Time for sweatshirts and jackets. Time for sitting in bleachers on a Thursday or Friday night with the smell of burgers and hot dogs in the air. Time for fantasy drafts (and making fun of friends for drafting a kicker or defense WAY too early). And time for the return of my weekly game picks.

Head in the Game Blog has been on what I like to call "summer vacation" the past few months, largely due to the fact that we've been busy with work. But we have made our return just in time for football season. Langston Johnson kicked it off Thursday with a hype piece about gameday. If you're not already pumped up for football season (whether it be high school, which is already in full gear, college, which just started, or pro, which starts soon), I advise you to read it. It's definitely worth your time.

Now on to the picks. Reminder that I am not a psychic (or, if I am, I'm only psychic sometimes and don't get the whole picture, like Raven from That's So Raven). Regardless, I will do my best Shawn Spencer impression and pretend to be psychic.

(Home Team Listed Last)

Saturday

Kent State 13, #5 Clemson 48 (Noon, ESPN) 
Deshaun Watson is gone, as are many other key contributors from last year's Clemson team that took down Alabama in the College Football Playoff, but they still have tons of talent, led by returners (like receiver Deon Cane and defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence) and newcomers (like quarterback Kelly Bryant and running back C.J. Fuller). Kent State gets to open with the defending champion for the second straight season, and this one will probably go a lot like the other one (a 42-0 loss to Alabama).

Akron 6, #6 Penn State 52 (Noon, ABC)
In another battle of below-average MAC team versus playoff contender, the Akron Zips, coming off a 5-7 season a year ago, face the Penn State Nittany Lions, coming off an exciting Rose Bowl win and anchored by junior quarterback Trace McSorely and junior running back Saquon Barkley, who's a Heisman candidate. The Zips won't be able to stop those guys, and will have a hard time scoring against Penn State's stout defense.

Maryland 20, #23 Texas 38 (Noon, FS1)
Both teams were mediocre a season ago (Texas didn't even make a bowl game), and both have questions coming into this season (lots of youth at important positions), but Texas *should* have a lot more talent after hiring Tom Herman, who impressed as offensive coordinator at Ohio State and head coach at Houston, and who is a very good recruiter. Ever since winning the National Championship behind Vince Young, Texas has been more expectations than results. That might all end with the hiring of Herman, but they first have to avoid this initial trap game against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team.

Bethune-Cookman 3, #18 Miami 38 (12:30 PM, ACC Network)
Bethune-Cookman is an FCS team coming off a 4-6 season. I could probably end my blurb about this game right there, but I won't. The Canes lost quarterback Brad Kaaya and tight end David Njoku early to the NFL, and they have uncertainty at QB with junior Malik Rosier, but they still have tons of high-end talent all over the field, and they should breeze past B-C. By the way, Bethune-Cookman's mascot is the Wildcats, in case you care.

UTEP 17, #7 Oklahoma 60 (3:30 PM, Fox)
I'm trying not to fall asleep scrolling through these games, but that's usually how it is the first few weeks. The Miners come off a 4-8 season in 2016, and they shouldn't be much of a threat to Oklahoma. The Sooners will surely be looking ahead to their matchup with Ohio State next weekend. Yes, Baker Mayfield is still the starting quarterback for Oklahoma.

#11 Michigan 28, #17 Florida 17 (3:30 PM, ABC)
This game woke me up. In the first ranked matchup of the season, two defensive powerhouses battle. I can't tell you a whole lot about the key players in this game, since both teams have been pretty secretive about who they're starting (and since a quarter of Florida's team is suspended), but I do know redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks (great name) will be starting at quarterback for Florida, and he will probable face junior Wilton Speight for Michigan. I almost want to pick the Gators based on my dislike of Michigan and the starting quarterback's name, but the fact that Michigan looks to be a potential National Title threat (and that 10 Gators are suspended) means the Wolverines will probably come out on top.

Stony Brook 14, #19 South Florida 41 (4:00 PM, ESPN3)
What if I told you that this is the real marquee matchup of the weekend? Then I'd either be lying, crazy, or a big Stony Brook fan. South Florida got off to a slow start last week against San Jose State, but ended up winning by 20. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a player who could breakout a la Lamar Jackson last year, and Charlie Strong is still a very good coach. I don't know anything about Stony Brook's football team (it's an FCS team), and I'm not very motivated to look it up.

Western Michigan 21, #4 USC 45 (5:15 PM, Pac-12 Network)
Western Michigan is no longer rowing the boat, as head coach P.J. Fleck left for Minnesota during the offseason. The Broncos also lost quarterback Zack Terrell and wide receiver Corey Davis, although they still have a decent run game with Jarvion Franklin, Jamauri Bogan, and Davon Tucker. USC is a title contender led by quarterback Sam Darnold, whom I think will win the Heisman Trophy. The redshirt sophomore is already the projected #1 overall pick (by many) in next year's NFL Draft.

Appalachian State 19, #15 Georgia 28 (6:15 PM, ESPN)
Appalachian State is still widely-recognized thanks to a monumental upset over Michigan 10 years ago. The Mountaineers haven't repeated anything like that since, but they did almost upset then-#9 Tennessee the first week of last season (they lost 20-13 in overtime). Although Georgia is a bona fide SEC team led by highly-talented running back Nick Chubb, it did almost lose to Nicholls in the second week of 2016 (the Bulldogs survived 26-24), so I could see another near-upset for App State.

Central Arkansas 10, #20 Kansas State 50 (7:10 PM, ESPN3)
Another FCS cupcake. The only thing I know about this one is that it is somewhere in the middle of Arkansas. As for Kansas State, head coach Bill Snyder is still kicking as he leads the Wildcats again this season. The team that beat Texas A&M in the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl (these bowl names, man) last season returns many key starters, including the quarterback (Jesse Ertz). I peeked and saw that Central Arkansas actually had a good season last year. Kansas State should still cruise.

Georgia Southern 0, Auburn 35 (7:30 PM, SEC Network)
This isn't the NCAA Basketball Tournament, so I'm not giving Georgia Southern much of a chance. The Tigers have a new quarterback (Jarrett Stidham), but they might not miss a beat, as they once again have a very athletic and talented team (although they did lose that guy from Last Chance U who decided to transfer).

#16 Louisville 48, Purdue 16 (7:30 PM, Fox)
The Cardinals still have that Lamar Jackson guy, don't they? And they're playing Purdue? I'm done here.

#3 Florida State 24, #1 Alabama 42 (Atlanta, 8:00 PM, ABC)
We finally reach the game of the weekend. The defending champion runner-up against a team that was close last season and may be there this season. It'll be a battle of two talented young quarterbacks (Alabama's Jalen Hurts and Florida State's Deondre Francois), as well as two highly-talented defenses. It should be a fun game to watch between two elite college football teams. I say all of this, yet I still have Bama winning by 18, because that's what Bama does.

BYU 27, #13 LSU 21 (New Orleans, 9:30 PM, ESPN)
Sometimes you have to take risks in life. I don't have to take this risk, but I want to. I believe in the Morman Cougars from Utah. I believe in quarterback Tanner Mangum. I believe in running back Squally Canada, whom I've never heard of before, but whose first name is "Squally", and whose last name is the greatest country in the world (uh, I mean, uh, besides the, uh, USA, of course). I believe that LSU may be a bit overrated, like they were last year. I believe LSU has some question marks. I believe in late-night upsets. And I believe in this pick (I would advise you not to believe in me, however).

Montana State 13, #24 Washington State 52 (10:30 PM, FS1)
Ah, the return of college football means the return of Washington State football. For those of you unfamiliar with Washington State football, let me just say if you love defense and running the ball, don't like staying up late, and like watching football games played at a brisk pace, you will HATE Washington State football. Mike Leach and quarterback Luke Falk lead the Cougars again, looking for a Pac-12 title that they fell just short of last season.

Sunday

#22 West Virginia 24, #21 Virginia Tech 28 (7:30 PM, ABC)
Don't overlook the Sunday night game. I almost said it's the Battle of Virginia, but then I remembered West Virginia is a different state from Virginia. The quarterback battle will be between VT redshirt freshman Josh Jackson (which is also the name of the #4 overall pick in this year's NBA Draft, in case anyone cares) and WV transfer Will Grier (he's the guy who led Florida to a great start and then tested positive for steroids). Virginia Tech is known to play low-scoring defensive games, while West Virginia is known for the opposite. I could see this tilting either way, but defense wins championships.

Monday

#25 Tennessee 32, Georgia Tech 35 (Atlanta, 8:00 PM, ESPN)
Another game that should not be overlooked is this Labor Day clash between the SEC and ACC. Both teams have to replace quarterbacks, and neither has officially announced the starter. The Volunteers lost their quarterback (Joshua Dobbs) and starting running back (Alvin Kamara), but they return some key starters from their defense. It'll be somewhat difficult to stop Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and I think the Yellow Jackets squeeze out the victory.

Information and stats via ESPN.com

Gameday

Every kid dreams of waking up in the morning with that game day feeling. The day goes by slow. The task at hand and getting to the field is all you can think about all day. Hours before the game, before the stands have any people in it, before the popcorn is popped, or before all the custodians have finished setting everything up, you arrive to the stadium. Walking in the front gates, tailgating fans are cheering loudly and yelling good luck as you enter the stadium. The locker room smells like sweat, but you are glad to finally be there. The room is silent, but excitement fills the air. Players are getting taped up and putting their pads and helmets on. Music is blaring on the speakers and in the headphones of your teammates. The kickers and returners go out to start warming up. Outside the stadium, fans are starting to be let in; going to buy drinks and hot dogs, and trying to find their seats. Reporters and news anchors fill the sidelines, giving their takes and giving fans the latest updates on the upcoming game. Lots of people are taking pictures in front of the field and all around the stadium. After what seems like hours of getting ready to go out on the field, coach finally comes into the locker room and tells the team it’s time to go warm up. Chills go down your spine as you know it’s closer to game time. The team stretches, does some position work, and does final tune ups before going back into the locker room for the final time. The stands are starting to fill as the game clock continues to count down. Chatter becomes increasingly louder as it echoes off the walls inside the stadium. From inside the locker room you can hear the PA announcer advertising some type of product. Coaches come in and give their final speeches and say it’s time to go out on the field. Walking toward the tunnel, you can see the heads of people looking under the tunnel and starting to get anxious for the team to run out. The away team runs out on the field and is met with loud boos and some scattered cheers. The crowd suddenly goes silent. From the speakers, the fight song begins to play and the crowd starts going crazy. Coach yells something that is too hard to hear through all the noise and turns around to start running out of the tunnel. As the team runs out, the crowd goes insane. The fight song continues to play while the whole team runs out and the fans continue to go crazy. Your stomach drops just knowing it is time to take care of business. The national anthem is sung and it is go time. Both teams line up for the opening kickoff. The student section chanting and screaming and both sidelines yelling “oooooooooo!!!” The whistle is blown and the kicker takes his approach steps. And just like that, football season begins again. Are you ready?

2017 NFL Draft Preview

By the end of this week, every NFL team will have multiple new players, some of whom could potentially become the face of a franchise, and some of whom will be cut before Week 1. For fans of many teams (including Cleveland Browns fans like myself), it's arguably the most important part of the year. It's an opportunity for a team to turn itself into a playoff contender, a Super Bowl contender, or at least a decent team (as opposed to a bad team). From round one through round seven, there can be contributors found. Players like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton can change the fate of a franchise. A combination of picks can help turn a team around, like Khalil Mack and Derek Carr have for the Oakland Raiders. Even picks in later rounds, like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and... what's that  other guy's name... I want to say it's, like, Dom Prady or something... anyway, you get the point.

On the other hand, teams can badly miss on players early, and that can really set a team back. For all the Andrew Lucks and Cam Newtons, Zeke Elliotts and Adrian Petersons, or Dak Prescotts and Russell Wilsons, there are also JaMarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs, Justin Blackmons and Justin Gilberts, Trent Richardsons and... basically most of Cleveland's first round draft picks the last five years. The draft is all about taking risks and putting faith into a selection of players. Sometimes those risks pay off, and other times, a team is looking for a new general manager and head coach the next year.

With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at what I see as the major storylines leading up to Thursday night at 8:00 PM, give my 10-pick mock draft, and list a few of my favorite players in this draft.

QB Conundrum

Deshaun Watson, Mitch(ell) Trubisky, Pat Mahomes, and DeShone Kizer.

Quarterback is the riskiest position in the draft, especially this year. There doesn't seem to be an Andrew Luck in this draft. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus on who the top quarterback is. However, scouts and analysts have largely agreed on the top four: Clemson's Deshaun Watson, fresh off a National Championship; North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky (or Mitchell Trubisky, or Mitchy Trubisky, or whatever you want to call him), who only has one season of experience, but really impressed in that one season; Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes II, who has seemingly defied the stereotype of the "Air Raid" quarterback; and Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer, who showed flashes and a lot of pro potential despite a losing season. What nobody really knows is where these quarterbacks will go.

Last week, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Cleveland, which holds the first overall pick, is torn between Trubisky and defensive end Myles Garrett, the consensus top prospect in the draft. The Browns also have the 12th overall pick, but rumor has it Trubisky might be snatched up before then. Of course, in the week leading up to the draft, people need to be wary of rumors, since smokescreens abound.

If the rumor is true, the Browns could take a big risk and pick Trubisky first overall, or they could use some of the many draft picks they've acquired to trade up with the Jets, 49ers, or another team, to make sure they get Trubisky, while also getting Garrett (in fact, NFL Network's Mike Silver reported that a few teams have gotten calls from the Browns about trading up into the top eight). Garrett is viewed by many as a future All-Pro, and he's an athletic freak who could be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. But Cleveland, of course, is still yearning for a franchise quarterback, having failed at several previous tries.

As a Browns fan, I would love more than anything for them to finally land a franchise quarterback. However, I don't believe they should even consider a signal-caller with the first overall pick. The main reason I believe that is a 6'4", 272-pound dinosaur lover.

In my opinion, Myles Garrett should be the first overall pick.

Myles Garrett is considered by most as the clear number one prospect, a physical specimen who can terrorize offensive linemen and run like a skill player (he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash at the Combine). He's drawn comparisons to greats such as Julius Peppers, Jevon Kearse, and DeMarcus Ware. He's also very intelligent, and doesn't seem to have any character problems. All the signs point to him being an impact player for many years, and I just don't think you can pass that up for a high-risk player with a small sample size of experience. At least not with the first pick.

I am by no means a scout, but here are my brief evaluations of the top quarterbacks in this draft (garnered from watching them in college and/or reading scouting reports on them):

• Mitch Trubisky: He seems to have the physical traits (he's 6'2", 220 pounds) and accuracy (he completed 68 percent of his passes, and had 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions) to translate to the pro level, but he only started one season, and his Tar Heels lost to Duke and NC State late in the season. I think he has the intangibles to be a great NFL quarterback, but he doesn't have a large enough sample size to inspire complete confidence that he can be one.
• Deshaun Watson: Based on college production and leadership, Watson is the clear number one quarterback in the draft. He took the Clemson Tigers to the National Championship as a sophomore and won it as a junior. He was also a Heisman Trophy finalist both seasons. The biggest question concerning Watson is probably his accuracy, as he threw 17 interceptions last season and showed some shakiness throwing into coverage. However, he still completed 67 percent of his passes and threw 41 touchdowns, and I think he has the leadership and poise to succeed in the NFL.
• Patrick Mahomes II: The Texas-Tech product has good size (6'2", 225) and a big arm. His stats look great, of course, since he played in Tech's Air Raid offense, but he also has great physical skills. He was somewhat inconsistent, and he could be boom-or-bust at times, which also seems to be the best way to describe him as a draft prospect. He has potential, but it may take time.
• DeShone Kizer: Kizer's Fighting Irish had a rough season (they finished 4-8), but I pin that more on head coach Brian Kelly than Kizer. The 6'4", 233-pound Kizer has great physical traits and skills, and he showed flashes during the season, but he was inconsistent, and was benched for Malik Zaire on more than one occasion. He has shown the ability, he just has to put it all together.

There is a common theme with these quarterbacks. None are slam dunk prospects, and I honestly don't know which will be stars and which will fade away. Time will really tell with all of these guys. Beyond them are guys like Nathan Peterman of Pitt, Brad Kayya of Miami, and Davis Webb of Cal, as well as Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs, whom I think might be the closest thing to a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in this draft. He's highly intelligent (he's a freakin' rocket scientist) and seems to posses good leadership qualities.

Josh Dobbs could be a sleeper in this draft.

Nobody can be absolutely sure how the quarterback class will shake out in the draft until it actually happens. At this point, it's all just speculation. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

A Bevy of Backs

Jamal Adams could go as high as second overall.

While the quarterback class isn't perceived as a strong point in this draft, there is a plethora of potential playmakers in the secondary. At least two or three defensive backs could go in the top ten, and several more could be gone by the end of Thursday night.

Ohio State's Marshon Lattimore heads most big boards at cornerback, followed by "DBU" teammate Gareon Conley (who is currently being investigated for an alleged sexual assault, which he vehemently denies), along with LSU's Tre'Davious White, Alabama's Marlon Humphrey, Colorado's Chidobe Awuzie, and Washington's Kevin King and Sidney Jones, among others. All of these players could be off the board by the weekend, as well as others, like Michigan's Jourdan Lewis (the less-heralded Wolverine DB prospect), USC's Adoree' Jackson (a weapon in the return game), and the Florida tandem of Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor (what a name).

But cornerback might not have as much high-end talent as safety. LSU's Jamal Adams and Ohio State's Malik Hooker sit at the top, and they could both go in the top five. Beyond that are the versatile Jabrill Peppers (out of Michigan) and the athletic Budda Baker (out of Washington), followed by guys like N.C. State's Josh Jones and Florida's Marcus Maye.

If you're a team that needs help in the secondary, this draft has a lot to choose from, but they could go pretty quickly.

Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey head the running back class.

There are also some talented running backs to choose from, but not without risk. Leading the backfield prospects is LSU's Leonard Fournette, a beastly ball carrier who looked like a man among boys as a sophomore before getting slowed down by injuries last season. If he can stay healthy, he has all the physical tools to succeed, and he could make it too straight years that a running back goes in the top five (Zeke Elliott went fourth to Dallas in 2016).

After him are Florida State's Dalvin Cook, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, and Oklahoma's Joe Mixon. Both Cook and Mixon have had off-field transgressions, but both are also supremely talented. The versatile McCaffrey was highly productive in college, but durability could be a concern. Tennessee running back Alvin Kamara is also in the conversation early.

Do I know much about Alvin Kamara? No, but he could end up being the best back in the draft.

Running backs generally have a short shelf life, but they can also make quite an impact right away. I think at least two or three backs in this class could end up being very productive for several years.

Mock Draft (First 10 Picks)

I told myself I wasn't going to do a mock draft, yet here I am, doing a mock draft. This mock will undoubtedly be wrong, as most mocks are, but it's who I think will go in the top 10 (not necessarily who I would pick if I were in charge of the teams in the top 10).

1. Cleveland Browns: DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M

There have been whispers that the Browns might take Mitch Trubisky first overall, but I think they'll make the smarter and safer move by selecting the dominant end from Texas A&M (although, with Cleveland, you never really know). Adding him to a defense that includes Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and promising 2016 draft pick Emmanuel Ogbah could make Gregg Williams' unit a scary one next season.

2. San Francisco 49ers: DE Solomon Thomas, Stanford

The number two pick is a bit of a mystery. The Niners could trade down with a QB-needy team. They could also pick a safety (Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker), a cornerback (Marshon Lattimore), or even a running back (Leonard Fournette) or quarterback. Instead, I have them picking the athletic and talented 2016 PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year.

3. Chicago Bears: CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State

I've seen Alabama defensive end Jonathan Allen pegged here, but I think Chicago will focus more on the secondary. The Bears are in real need of a corner, which makes the skilled Ohio State product a good fit. In his first season as a starter last year, Lattimore was an All-Big Ten first-team selection.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: RB Leonard Fournette, LSU

Most mock drafts have the Jags selecting the talented SEC running back here, and I'm an agreeable person, so I'll slot him here as well. A trade down or a quarterback are also possibilities here, but signs point to a strong interest in the 2015 All-American.

5. Tennessee Titans: WR Mike Williams, Clemson

The Titans could trade down, and they're reportedly already in talks to. Marshon Lattimore has also been a popular pick here, and I think Tennessee will take him if he's still available. But since he's not in this mock, I have the Titans addressing another dire need by selecting the big playmaker from the National Champion Clemson Tigers.

6. New York Jets: S Jamal Adams, LSU

The Jets are another trade-down candidate, and they could even stay put and pick a quarterback. However, I don't think they'll pass on a playmaker in the secondary like Adams if he's still available here. Adams was an AP first-team All-American last season as a junior.

7. Los Angeles Chargers: S Malik Hooker, Ohio State

I started typing San Diego, then I remembered they're in L.A. now. That's going to take some getting used to. Many draft analysts have connected Hooker to the Chargers, and I have to agree. San Diego Los Angeles could use help on defense, and the athletic Hooker has tremendous ball skills in the defensive backfield.

8. Carolina Panthers: DE Jonathan Allen, Alabama

Everybody and their brother (or sister) has connected Stanford running back to the Panthers, but I just can't see the Panthers passing up Allen (who probably won't fall this far Thursday night, but did in my mock draft). The 2016 Chuck Bednarik and Bronco Nagurski Award winner (nation's top defender) could go as high as number two.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: LB Reuben Foster, Alabama

Before I get into this pick, let's have a discussion on a more important matter: spelling. For some reason, I always want to spell it "Cincinatti". Anyway, back to the pick. The Bengals will probably go defense here, and they've been connected to Foster, who won the Butkus Award (nation's top linebacker) last season.

10. Buffalo Bills: QB Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina

You thought I wasn't going to put a quarterback in the top 10, didn't you? The Bills could trade down (really, anybody in the top 10 could conceivably trade down), or select a playmaker like Alabama tight end O.J. Howard, but apparently (at least according to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, who cited a scout with the team), Buffalo's interest in a quarterback is real.

Favorites

There are often players I just like. I just feel like these players will succeed, even without scouting them extensively. Here are some of my favorites:

• Myles Garrett (he seems like a cool guy, and he's got elite physical tools)
• Malik Hooker (He's supremely athletic and is a great center fielder in the secondary)
• Deshaun Watson (He showed great poise on the biggest stage in college football)
• Western Michigan WR Corey Davis (I think he's the best receiver in this draft)
• Joshua Dobbs (I'm just feeling Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott vibes from him)

Stats and information via NFL.com, ESPN.com, and BleacherReport.com