Before I begin, I just want to give a shoutout to Nike and Colin Kaepernick. I love Nike's inspirational new ad campaign that features athletes such as Kaepernick, Serena Williams and OBJ, and I love that Kaepernick, who is a great humanitarian and role model (as well as a decent football player), is the face of it. Kudos to them.
Alright, let's get started...
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| With Le'Veon Bell still holding out, James Connor gets a chance this weekend |
Week 1 Fantasy Picks to Click
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, HOU (@ NE)
Yes, Watson is coming back from a torn ACL that he suffered in practice midway through the 2017 season, but he looks healthy, and he was putting up prolific numbers before getting hurt. Last year, Watson threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns (along with two interceptions) in a 33-36 Texans loss. I expect another shootout this time, perhaps with better results for Watson.
Tyrod Taylor, CLE (vs. PIT)
You may have heard me say this before, but Tyrod Taylor is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL. Taylor is known as a conservative quarterback (which usually equates to a low-ceiling fantasy quarterback), but he did finish in the top ten in fantasy points per game in 2015 and 2016, and that was with a Buffalo offense that had nowhere near the weapons the 2018 Browns have. Tyrod could be a top ten fantasy quarterback in Cleveland.
Andy Dalton, CIN (@ IND)
Unlike Watson and Taylor, Dalton isn't somebody I would keep on my fantasy team all season, but he is someone to look at if you need a quarterback for Week 1, or want a low-cost daily fantasy quarterback. The Colts were not great against the pass last season, and they let their best defensive back (Reshaan Melvin) go during the offseason. A.J. Green and John Ross will tear up that secondary this weekend, which could make Dalton an under-the-radar fantasy option.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon, LAC (vs. KC)
The man they call Melvin (because that's his name) will once again be the workhorse back for the Chargers. He was one of the best running backs in fantasy last season, partly thanks to his heavy usage. He will probably be heavily used again this year, especially against Kansas City's suspect defense. In his last meeting with the Chiefs (December 16 of 2017), Gordon ran for 78 yards (and a touchdown) and caught six passes for 91 yards.
James Connor, PIT (@ CLE)
Now that Le'Veon Bell has been officially ruled out for Week 1 (as he continues his holdout in search of a new contract), Connor is someone to consider picking up on the waiver wire. Bell was one of the most heavily used running backs in the league, so Connor is appealing based off volume alone in this prolific offense. As long as Le'Veon is out, Connor is a must-add in fantasy.
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry, CLE (vs. PIT)
I'm all in on Landry this season. The best slot receiver in the NFL has been one of the most heavily-targeted players in the NFL the last few seasons. After being traded from Miami to Cleveland in the offseason, he'll probably be targeted less, but this is potentially the best offense he's ever had, and it looks like he'll be used more in the deep passing game than he was in Miami.
Corey Davis, TEN (@ MIA)
The second-year receiver out of Western Michigan is entrenched as Tennessee's number one receiver to start the season. Davis is poised for a breakout season, especially if quarterback Marcus Mariota takes a step forward. Davis should get a lot of action Sunday against a porous Miami defense.
Jamison Crowder, WAS (@ ARI)
Another heavily-targeted receiver, Crowder could become new quarterback Alex Smith's best friend. In an offense without a true number one receiving option, Smith will probably lean on Crowder a lot, especially Sunday against Patrick Peterson (who probably won't be covering Crowder in the slot) and the Cardinals.
Tight End
David Njoku, CLE (vs. PIT)
If you can't tell, I'm excited about the Browns this season. This could be a breakout season for the second-year tight end out of Miami. Tyrod Taylor likes his tight ends (see Clay, Charles), and Njoku had a very good preseason. The Steelers aren't the "Steel Curtain" of old, so Njoku should be able to find some room to make plays Sunday.
Antonio Gates, LAC (vs. KC)
The 38-year-old is back with the Chargers after signing with them recently. He'll again be Phillip Rivers' top tight end, with Hunter Henry out for the season. The Chiefs were 29th in the NFL against the pass last season, and they're currently banged up in the secondary. Rivers might look to his old companion more than a few times on Sunday.
Jesse James, PIT (@ CLE)
On the other side of the field, we have Jesse James, who would not show up in this article if he wasn't playing the Browns. Although the Steelers also have Vance McDonald, he's currently battling an injury, so James will likely get the majority of the snaps at tight end. Last season, James scored two touchdowns against Cleveland in Week 1. The Browns were the worst team in the NFL against tight ends last season, and until that trend ends, I'll continue to put the opposing tight end here.
Defense
Baltimore Ravens (vs. BUF)
Two words: Nathan Peterman. Five more words: The Buffalo Bills offensive line.
Tennessee Titans (@ MIA)
The Dolphins traded away leading receiver Jarvis Landry, and Devante Parker is doubtful to go Sunday. So Miami's top receivers this week will be Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. 80-year-old Frank Gore will team up with former backup Kenyan Drake at running back, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be playing for the first time in two years. I like Tennessee's chances.
Detroit Lions (vs. NYJ)
The Lions will be facing a rookie quarterback on Monday Night Football. Sam Darnold looked good during the preseason, and the Jets don't have a horrible offense, but Darnold did have turnover problems in college, and he might have some nerves playing his first regular season NFL game on the road in primetime.
Week 1 Game Picks
Thursday
Falcons @ Eagles (8:20 PM, NBC)
The 2018 NFL season kicks off in Philadelphia, home of the defending Super Bowl champions. Although the Eagles will have the same quarterback that they had against New England in February (Carson Wentz will miss at least the first week or two), expect Nick Foles to look more like what Nick Foles looked like before last season's magical playoff run. I think the opener will go to Atlanta.
Spread: ATL -1 Over/Under: 45
Prediction: Falcons 24, Eagles 14
Sunday
Steelers @ Browns (1:00 PM, CBS)
The last time the Browns won their first game of the season? 2004. Ben Roethlisberger is 21-2 against Cleveland in his career, and even without Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers are favored to beat the Browns again. There's a different feel to this year's Browns, however. I'm going against the grain and picking a Cleveland victory. Is this a smart pick? Probably not.
Spread: PIT -4.5 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Browns 31, Steelers 28
Bengals @ Colts (1:00 PM, CBS)
It's been 19 months since Andrew Luck last played in an NFL regular season game, but he will be under center for Indianapolis Sunday at home against Cincinnati. He'll be playing behind a better offensive line, one that includes first-round pick Quenton Nelson. The key matchup in this game may be the Indy line vs. Cincy's pass rushers, which include Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson. I think Luck might show some rust, and I think the Bengals will take advantage.
Spread: IND -3 Over/Under: 48
Prediction: Bengals 21, Colts 17
Titans @ Dolphins (1:00 PM, FOX)
Speaking of quarterbacks playing for the first time in a long time, Ryan Tannehill returns for the Dolphins on Sunday. The offense around him will look a lot different (and not in a good way). The Titans, headed by new coach Mike Vrabel, are hoping Marcus Mariota has a breakout season playing for a new offensive coordinator. Breakout or not, Tennessee should emerge victorious.
Spread: TEN -1.5 Over/Under: 45
Prediction: Titans 31, Dolphins 13
49ers @ Vikings (1:00 PM, FOX)
It's Super Bowl or bust this season in Minnesota. After coming close to the big game last season (when it was played in Minnesota), the Vikings nabbed the big fish on the free agent market (Kirk Cousins). His addition to a strong offense, along with an already-elite defense, make this a dangerous team. the Niners are unbeaten with Jimmy G at quarterback, but I think that run ends this week.
Spread: MIN -6.5 Over/Under: 46
Prediction: Vikings 35, 49ers 20
Texans @ Patriots (1:00 PM, FOX)
This should be an intriguing battle. Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt are back and healthy for the Texans, while Tom Brady and Gronk are back for the defending Super Bowl runners-up. Brady will be without Julian Edelman, and he'll be up against a defense that features Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and new addition Tyrann Matieu, among others. I'm calling for an upset in Foxborough.
Spread: NE -6.5 Over/Under: 51
Prediction: Texans 34, Patriots 31
Buccaneers @ Saints (1:00 PM, FOX)
The Bucs will be without quarterback Jameis Winston for the first three games, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start. The journeyman from Harvard will not face an easy first test, as Tampa faces off with a talented New Orleans defense that includes last season's Defensive Rookie of the Year, Marshon Lattimore. The Saints will also be without a key offensive player (Mark Ingram), but Alvin Kamara, the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, can fill that hole. Saints in a rout.
Spread: NO -10 Over/Under: 49.5
Prediction: Saints 38, Buccaneers 14
Jaguars @ Giants (1:00 PM, FOX)
The Jags are hoping to get to the Super Bowl this year, behind an elite defense that got them to the AFC Championship last season. The Giants are hoping for better things this year too, after they had a rough 2017. New York has second overall pick Saquon Barkley and a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. to help Eli Manning out, along with talented young tight end Evan Engram. The Giants are probably feeling pretty good right now, and I think that could propel them to an upset on Sunday.
Spread: JAX -3 Over/Under: 43.5
Prediction: Giants 23, Jaguars 17
Bills @ Ravens (1:00 PM, CBS)
Josh Allen isn't ready, so Nathan Peterman (yes, the Nathan Peterman who infamously threw five interceptions in one half after the Bills decided to start him over Tyrod Taylor for some reason) will get the start. He won't have much to help him, other than LeSean McCoy. Joe Flacco will have a little more to help him, including Alex Collins, John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead IV... and Nathan Peterman.
Spread: BAL -7.5 Over/Under: 40.5
Prediction: Ravens 17, Bills 3
Chiefs @ Chargers (4:05 PM, CBS)
This should be a fun game. We get to see Patty Mahomes and the stacked Kansas City offense against the vaunted Charger defense. The rocket-launching Mahomes looked good in the preseason, and he'll have plenty of weapons at his disposal. Phillip Rivers and the Charger offense should have some success against Kansas City' defense, but these are the Chargers, so I'm going to predict a fourth-quarter collapse.
Spread: LAC -3 Over/Under: 48
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27
Seahawks @ Broncos (4:25 PM, FOX)
The Broncos will have a new guy under center after signing Case Keenum this offseason. The Seahawks still have Russell Wilson under center, but the offensive line and secondary are areas of concern. The Broncos will have a ferocious pass rush that includes Von Miller and fifth overall pick Bradley Chubb. This could be a defensive battle, which I think favors Denver.
Spread: DEN -3 Over/Under: 42.5
Prediction: Broncos 20, Seahawks 14
Redskins @ Cardinals (4:25 PM, FOX)
Washington, like Kansas City, has a new face at quarterback, and that face is Kansas City's old quarterback. Alex Smith won't have the supporting cast he had in KC, but he has players like Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson and Chris Thompson. David Johnson is back and healthy for the Cardinals, who will trot out Sam Bradford at quarterback. Bradford has shown that he's decent when healthy, and Johnson should have room to run.
Spread: ARI -1 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Cardinals 17, Redskins 14
Cowboys @ Panthers (4:25 PM, FOX)
Dak, Zeke and company will be hoping to bounce back from last season, but the Cowboys might not bounce back until Week 2. The Dallas defense will have some trouble stopping Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and company, and the Dallas offense has zero proven wide receivers (unless you consider Allen Hurns a proven wide receiver). Panthers should take this one.
Spread: CAR -3 Over/Under: 42.5
Prediction: Panthers 31, Cowboys 17
Bears @ Packers (8:20 PM, NBC)
This year's version of the oldest rivalry in the NFL should be more interesting than recent years, even though the Packers still have the best QB in football (that would be Aaron Rodgers). The Bears are hoping Mitchell Trubisky can take a Jared Goff-like step forward in his second season, especially with a better supporting cast. Chicago also beefed up its defense with Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. Despite all that, I'm still going with A-Rod and the Pack. They know what to do with Mack.
Spread: GB -7.5 Over/Under: 47.5
Prediction: Packers 32, Bears 24
Monday
Jets @ Lions (7:10 PM, ESPN)
Sam Darnold's NFL debut will be on Monday night in Detroit. I think we'll see some good things, but I also think we'll see some rookie mistakes. I expect at least one interception (if I had to bet on a player to pick him, it'd obviously be Darius Slay), but at least 150 passing yards and maybe a touchdown. I also expect the Lions to win.
Spread: DET -7 Over/Under: 45
Prediction: Lions 30, Jets 17
Rams @ Raiders (10:15 PM, ESPN)
It's been a tale of two summers for these two teams. The already-rich Rams got richer, acquiring players like Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks. Meanwhile, Jon Gruden released one of the best punters in the league because of his personality, then traded one of the best pass-rushers in the league because of money. I'm feeling the Rams in a rout.
Spread: LAR -4.5 Over/Under: 49
Prediction: Rams 42, Raiders 20
Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via Bovada
Lines and Over/Unders as of Thursday Evening
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