Thursday, September 27, 2018

Fantasy Football/NFL Week 4 Preview





First, I would like to congratulate my favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, on winning a football game for the first time in 635 days. And what a way to do it. I was optimistic heading into the Thursday night showdown with the Jets, but it did not get off to a good start. I'm as big a Tyrod supporter as anyone, but by the middle of the second quarter, I was calling for Baker Mayfield. Down 14-0 late in the second quarter, Baker came in for an injured Taylor and breathed new life into the Cleveland offense. He (and the Browns defense) mounted a comeback that culminated in a 21-17 win in Cleveland.


I kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. As a Browns fan, I expect something catastrophic to happen, no matter how much it looks like the Browns will pull it out. It was a surreal experience when the other shoe didn't drop, and the Cleveland Browns won a football. I didn't yell or scream when they won, but it did feel like a really special moment. I've watched highlights of that game numerous times since last Thursday night, and I may watch highlights a few more times before Sunday. I really feel like the Browns have finally turned a corner, and I really feel like the Browns have finally found a franchise quarterback. We shall see.

Image result for baker mayfield photo after two point conversion
Baker may be the franchise QB us long-suffering Browns fans have been waiting for.

Secondly, I'm trying something new this week. Instead of giving some players I like this week, I have attempted to rank my top 20 quarterbacks, top 30 running backs, top 30 wide receivers, top 20 tight ends, top 10 defenses, and top 10 kickers this week. These are just rankings I came up with by looking at some expert rankings from sites such as ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports and looking at what the players have done so far and who they are playing. I am by no means a "fantasy football expert", so follow these rankings at your own risk. I've also added some notes about some players. Hopefully this is a better way to assist you in making lineup decisions.



Quarterback

1. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs (@ DEN) - Patty Mahomes has set the NFL on fire the first three weeks, throwing for 896 yards and 13 touchdowns. He's at the top until someone shows me a reason he shouldn't be.

2. Drew Brees, Saints (@ NYG)

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (vs. BUF)

4. Phillip Rivers, Chargers (vs. SF)

5. Deshaun Watson, Texans (@ IND)

6. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs. MIA) - Touchdown Tommy has not gotten off to a rousing start in fantasy this season. I think he'll put up better numbers this week, but I still don't expect a top-five performance.

7. Matt Ryan, Falcons (vs. CIN)

8. Andy Dalton, Bengals (@ ATL)

9. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (@ LAR) - Captain Kirk (and the entire Viking team) had a bizarrely bad day against Buffalo last Sunday. Although they're playing the best team in the league this week, Aqib Talib is out, and I think Minnesota will play more like normal.

10. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (@ ARI)

11. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs. BAL)

12. Matthew Stafford, Lions (vs. DAL)

13. Andrew Luck, Colts (vs. HOU)

14. Carson Wentz, Eagles (@ TEN) - Wentz returned from his serious knee injury last week. His numbers (255 yards, 1 touchdowns) were decent considering his long absence, but not strong fantasy numbers. I'll wait a few more weeks before putting him back in the fantasy elite at quarterback.

15. Baker Mayfield, Browns (@ OAK) - As I have established, I'm on the Baker Bandwagon. He showed poise, accuracy and a quick release against the Jets. He may be a rookie on the road making his first start, but it's against the win-less (and pass rush-less) Raiders.

16. Jared Goff, Rams (vs. MIN)

17. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins, (@ NE)

18. Case Keenum Broncos (vs. KC) - As far as matchups go, Keenum has the best this week. Kansas City has by far the worst defense in the league (474 yards allowed per game, over 40 yards more than the next closest team). He's a sleeper option in fantasy this week.

19. Eli Manning, Giants (vs. NO)

20. Joe Flacco, Ravens (@ PIT)


Running Back

1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs. DET) - Although Zeke made some crucial mistakes last week, he did run for 127 yards. This week, he faces the worst rush defense in the NFL.

2. Alvin Kamara, Saints (@ NYG) - Kamara should continue to put up elite fantasy numbers, but the return of Mark Ingram could cut into his workload a bit. Hence the drop to number two.

3. Todd Gurley II, Rams (vs. MIN)

4. Melvin Gordon, Chargers (vs. SF)

5. Saquon Barkley, Giants (vs. NO)

6. James Connor, Steelers (vs. BAL)

7. David Johnson, Cardinals (vs. SEA) - DJ has had a quiet start to the season, as has the entire Arizona offense. With a new quarterback and a matchup against Seattle's 30th-ranked rush defense, this could be the week he gets it going.

8. Jordan Howard, Bears (vs. TB)

9. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (@ DEN)

10. Giovani Bernard, Bengals (@ ATL) - Gio remains Cincinnati's feature back with Joe Mixon out. The Falcons have let Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara run rampant the last two weeks, which bodes well for the versatile Bernard.

11. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (vs. NYJ)

12. Carlos Hyde, Browns (@ OAK)

13. Lamar Miller, Texans (@ IND)

14. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders (vs. CLE)

15. Chris Carson, Seahawks (@ ARI)

16. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (@ NE)

17. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (vs. CIN) - After missing last week's game, Freeman is questionable for Sunday. If he doesn't play, Tevin Coleman becomes a top-15 running back option.

18. Alex Collins, Ravens (@ PIT)

19. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (vs. KC)

20. James White, Patriots (vs. MIA)

21. LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ GB) Shady says he's going to play against Green Bay despite battling injury. That doesn't, however, mean that he will play especially well.

22. Dion Lewis, Titans (vs. PHI)

23. Kerryon Johnson, Lions (vs. DAL) - Kerryon broke Detroit's long skid of games without a 100-yard rusher, but I want to see him do it a few more times before trusting him in fantasy.

24. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (vs. CIN)

25. Matt Breida, 49ers (@ LAC) - The NFL's leading rusher will be negatively affected by Jimmy G's torn ACL, as defenses will load the box more often with the much less harmful C.J. Beathard under center.

25. Jay Ajayi, Eagles (@ TEN)

26. Isaiah Crowell, Jets (@ JAX) - The Crow ran for two touchdowns last week against his former team. Don't expect him to replicate that performance against the NFL's fourth-ranked defense.

27. Royce Freeman, Broncos (vs. KC)

28. Sony Michel, Patriots (vs. MIA)

29. Javorious Allen, Ravens (@ PIT) - Buck Allen doesn't get a whole lot of touches, but he sometimes maximizes the touches he does get, keeping him fantasy-relevant.

30. Derrick Henry, Titans (vs. PHI)


Wide Receiver

1. Michael Thomas, Saints (@ NYG) - Thomas has quickly become the best wideout in the NFL. He's currently on pace to break the NFL record for receptions in a season.

2. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (vs. NO)

3. Antonio Brown, Steelers (vs. BAL)

4. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ IND)

5. Julio Jones, Falcons (vs. CIN)

6. Keenan Allen, Chargers (vs. SF)

7. A.J. Green, Bengals (@ ATL)

8. Adam Thielen, Vikings (@ LAR) - Thielen has gone over 100 yards in each of the first three games. A matchup against a Ram defense sans Aqib Talib could set him up for another one.

9. Jarvis Landry, Browns (@ OAK) - Everybody in the Cleveland offense should benefit from the change to Baker Mayfield at quarterback, especially Landry, who had 103 yards last week.

10. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ CHI)

11. Davante Adams, Packers (vs. BUF)

12. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (@ DEN)

13. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (vs. BAL) - JuJu has been Pittsburgh's leading receiver so far, going over 100 yards in each of the first three games. He's on his way to being an elite fantasy receiver.

14. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (vs. KC)

15. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (vs. HOU)

16. Brandin Cooks, Rams (vs. MIN)

17. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (@ LAR)

18. Golden Tate, Lions (@ DAL)

19. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (vs. KC) - Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should find plenty of room against the weak Kansas City secondary. Both are solid plays this week.

20. Allen Robinson, Bears (vs. TB)

21. Will Fuller V, Texans (@ IND) - Will Fuller has gone over 100 yards in each of the two games he has played, and he's been targeted heavily. his ranking in fantasy may continue to rise.

22. Robert Woods, Rams (vs. MIN)

23. Kenny Golladay, Lions (@ DAL)

24. John Brown, Ravens (@ PIT) - Baltimore's leading receiver is a sleeper candidate at the position in fantasy. He has 222 yards and two touchdowns through three games.

25. Cooper Kupp, Rams (vs. MIN)

26. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (@ ARI)

27. Marvin Jones Jr., Lions (@ DAL)

28. Sterling Shepherd, Giants (vs. NO) - With Evan Engram out, Shepherd will see more targets, and he should be able to do something with those targets against the porous Saints defense.

29. Amari Cooper, Raiders (vs. CLE)

30. Calvin Ridley, Falcons (vs. CIN) - The rookie had a HUGE day last Sunday, going for 146 yards and three touchdowns a week after scoring his first touchdown. He will come back down to the earth, but he has become an integral part of the Atlanta offense.



Tight End

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (@ DEN) - Kelce, who was already a top-five tight end, has benefited from the emergence of Pat Mahomes. After a quiet Week 1, Kelce has had over 100 yards in each of the last two games.

2. Zach Ertz, Eagles (@ TEN)

3. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs. MIA)


4. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (@ LAR)

5. Jimmy Graham, Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Trey Burton, Bears (vs. TB)

7. George Kittle, 49ers (@ LAC) - Kittle may not see much of a decline in production with the quarterback change. When Beathard was quarterback last year, Kittle was his favorite target.

8. Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. CLE)

9. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (@ CHI)

10. Jack Doyle, Colts (vs. HOU) - Both Doyle and fellow Colts tight end Eric Ebron are questionable for this week, so it may be best to just stay away from Indy tight ends.

12. Tyler Eifert, Bengals (@ ATL)

13. David Njoku, Browns (@ OAK) - Hailed by many as a breakout candidate at the beginning of the season, Njoku has been quiet. Will the change to Baker Mayfield help him? We'll see.

14. Eric Ebron, Colts (vs. HOU)

15. Benjamin Watson, Saints (@ NYG)

16. Austin Hooper, Falcons (vs. CIN)

17. Vance McDonald, Steelers (vs. BAL) - McDonald had a big night on Monday, helped mainly by a long touchdown in which he stiff-armed Chris Conte onto IR. I wouldn't expect many nights like that from him.

18. Will Dissly, Seahaws (@ ARI)

19. Dallas Goedert, Eagles (@ IND)

20. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars (vs. NYJ) - If nothing else, there is the storyline that ASJ is playing his former team. It's something.


Defense/Special Teams

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NYJ)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. SF)

3. Chicago Bears (vs. TB)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (@ TEN)

5. Green Bay Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Seattle Seahawks (@ ARI)

7. Cleveland Browns (@ OAK)

8. Los Angeles Rams (vs. MIN)

9. Houston Texans (@ IND)

10. New York Jets (@ JAX)


Kicker

1. Justin Tucker, Ravens (@ PIT)

2. Will Lutz, Saints (@ NYG)

3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs. MIA)

4. Harrison Butker, Chiefs (@ DEN)

5. Mason Crosby, Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Matt Bryant, Falcons (vs. CIN)

7. Sam Ficken, Rams (vs. MIN)

8. Ryan Succop, Titans (vs. PHI)

9. Matt Prater, Lions (@ DAL)


10. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (vs. HOU)


Record
Last Week: 9-7  vs. Spread: 8-8  Over/Under: 8-8
Season: 26-22  vs. Spread: 22-25-1  Over/Under: 21-26

(Home Team Listed Last)

Thursday

Vikings 31, Rams 28 (8:20 PM, FOX/NFL Network)

Spread: LAR -7  Over/Under: 48


Sunday

Bengals 23, Falcons 32 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: ATL -5.5  O/U: 51.5


Buccaneers 17, Bears 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CHI -3  O/U: 46.5


Lions 28, Cowboys 32 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: DAL -3  O/U: 44


Bills 14, Packers 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: GB -10  O/U: 45


Eagles 24, Titans 10 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: PHI -4  O/U: 41


Texans 30, Colts 27 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: IND -1  O/U: 47.5


Dolphins 16, Patriots 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: NE -6.5  O/U: 48.5


Jets 10, Jaguars 17 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: JAX -7.5  O/U: 38.5


Seahawks 21, Cardinals 14 (4:05 PM, FOX)

Spread: SEA -3  O/U: 39


Browns 28, Raiders 17 (4:05 PM, FOX)

Spread: OAK -2.5  O/U: 44.5


Saints 35, Giants 23 (4:25 PM, CBS)

Spread: NO -3.5  O/U: 50.5


49ers 13, Chargers 24 (4:25 PM, CBS)

Spread: LAC -10  O/U: 46.5


Ravens 27, Steelers 24 (8:20 PM, NBC)

Spread: PIT -3  O/U: 50.5


Monday

Chiefs 28, Broncos 31 (8:15 PM, ESPN)

Spread: KC -4.5  O/U: 55


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via ESPN.com
Lines as of Thursday Afternoon



No comments:

Post a Comment