Thursday, September 27, 2018

College Football Week 5 Preview

It's a monumental week in college football. There are five games between AP Top 25 teams, and two games between top-10 teams. After a weekend that included some upsets (but not the upsets I predicted), it could be another wild week. Let's get into it.

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Heisman Trophy candidate Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes visit Happy Valley this Saturday.


Record
Last Week: 16-7  vs. Spread: 12-10-1  Over/Under: 7-15
Season: 55-15  vs. Spread: 27-27-1  Over/Under: 24-30


Thursday

North Carolina @ #16 Miami (8:00 PM, ESPN)

After a disheartening start to the season (a 24-17 loss to Cal and a 41-19 loss to East Carolina), UNC bounced back by beating Pitt last week. Miami has breezed by cupcakes since a first-week loss to LSU. North Carolina is not good, and I don't see the Heels standing much of a chance in Miami

Spread: MIAMI -17  Over/Under: 57

Prediction: Miami 45, North Carolina 14



Saturday

Louisiana-Lafayette @ #1 Alabama (Noon, SEC Network)

Well, not much to see here. The top-ranked Crimson Tide host 1-2 Louisiana-Lafayette. If the Rajin' Cajuns win this game, I will stop doing weekly college football articles, because there would be no point trying to predict college football anymore

Spread: ALA -48.5  O/U: 67

Prediction: Alabama 62, Louisiana-Lafayette 10



Syracuse @ #3 Clemson (Noon, ABC)

In a battle of orange teams (honestly, this might be the most orange college football game I've ever seen), The Clemson Tigers (which are orange) face off against the Syracuse Orange (Syracuse's nickname is literally the color). Trevor Lawrence is the starter at Clemson, and Kelly Bryant is on his way out (he's transferring). Lawrence and company should light up the Orange.

Spread: CLEM -25.5  O/U: 66

Prediction: Clemson 55, Syracuse 17



#12 West Virginia @ #25 Texas Tech (Noon, ESPN2)

The first Top 25 matchup of the weekend comes in the Big 12, where two high-flying offenses squarer off. The Red Raiders shocked Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, but I don't think they'll get past Heisman candidate Will Grier and the Mountaineers.

Spread: WVU -3.5  O/U: 74.5

Prediction: West Virginia 58, Texas Tech 45



Central Michigan @ #21 Michigan State (Noon, FOX Sports 1)

This in-state battle shouldn't be close. Although the Spartans struggled against Utah State and Arizona State before cruising past Indiana, the Chippewas are 1-3, with one of those losses coming to the KANSAS JAYHAWKS (who are the Cleveland Browns of college football). MSU in a rout.

Spread: MSU -28.5  O/U: 46.5

Prediction: Michigan State 45, Central Michigan 14



Tennessee @ #2 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS)

Down south, Tennessee looks to bounce back from a drubbing at the hands of Florida with a drubbing at the hands of Georgia matchup with Georgia. The Bulldogs have scored at least 41 points in each of their three games. I think that 40-plus point streak continues this week.

Spread: UGA -30.5  O/U: 51.5

Prediction: Georgia 48, Tennessee 17



Baylor @ #6 Oklahoma (3:30 PM, ABC)

The Bears of Baylor are better then last year (they've already won more games than all of 2017!), but that doesn't mean they're good. The Sooners, on the other hand, are good, but almost lost to Army last week. I think Kyler Murray and company will bounce back in a game that you don't have to pay (or illegally stream) to watch.

Spread: OKLA -23.5  O/U: 69

Prediction: Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21



Pittsburgh @ #13 UCF (3:30 PM, ESPNU)

The Knights continue their quest to defend their "National Championship" against Pitt. The Panthers lost to North Carolina last week, so I don't like their chances on the road against a team that is scoring 50 point per game.

Spread: UCF -13.5  O/U: 64.5

Prediction: UCF 45, Pittsburgh 24



#18 Texas @ Kansas State (3:30 PM, FS1)

Texas followed up a dominating victory over ranked USC with another dominating performance over TCU. Maybe the Longhorns are finally #back. Whether they are or not, they should be able to beat a Kansas State team that lost to West Virginia by 29 last week.

Spread: TEX -8.5  O/U: 49

Prediction: Texas 35, Kansas State 17



Southern Mississippi @ #10 Auburn (4:00 PM, SECN)

The Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi have the same number of losses as the tenth-ranked Auburn Tigers. Of course, Auburn lost to LSU, while Southern Miss lost to Louisiana-Monroe. The Tigers should roll.

Spread: AUB -26.5  O/U: 53

Prediction: Auburn 62, Southern Mississippi 13



#14 Michigan @ Northwestern (4:30 PM, FOX)

This Big Ten showdown isn't as intriguing as some thought it might be before the season, as the Wildcats are coming off losses to Duke and Akron. The Wolverines demolished Nebraska last week, and I think they'll demolish the other Big Ten N team this week.

Spread: MICH -14.5  O/U: 47

Prediction: Michigan 47, Northwestern 20



Florida @ #23 Mississippi State (6:00 PM, ESPN)

These teams have something in common: they both lost to Kentucky. The Wildcats are the source of the only blemishes between those two teams. Kentucky knocked off Florida a few weeks ago, 27-16. Last week, Kentucky beat Mississippi State, 28-7. Just based off the fact that Florida's score vs. Kentucky looks better (which is not something I should base predictions off of), I'm going with the visiting Gators.

Spread: MSST -7.5  O/U: 50.5

Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 24



Virginia Tech @ #22 Duke (7:00 PM, ESPN2)

Look, I know the 22nd-ranked Blue Devils are unbeaten, and I know Virginia Tech just lost to Old Dominion (by 14 points!). But I still think the Hokies are the better team (even though they'll be without starting quarterback Justin Jackson). Call me crazy... because I am crazy. VT by a field goal.

Spread: DUKE -4.5  O/U: 49.5

Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Duke 20



#4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State (7:30 PM, ABC)

Ah, here we are. Primetime. Two top-10 matchups. The first one takes place in Happy Valley, where the two best teams in the Big Ten battle it out. The last two meeting between these two teams have come down to the wire, so this will probably be another nail-biter. I have yet to see Ohio State's offense struggle, so I'm going with Dwayne Haskins and company (shocking, I know).

Spread: OSU -3.5  O/U: 71

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Penn State 38



#7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC)

Stanford should have lost to Oregon last Saturday night, but somehow came back and won. Now the Cardinal head to South Bend to take on a team with a new quarterback. Ian Book replaced Brandon Wimbush as the Irish roasted Wake Forest last week. They didn't look great in the few games before the QB change. I'm going to go with Stanford in a tough-fought battle (shocking, I know).

Spread: ND -5.5  O/U: 52

Prediction: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 28



South Carolina @ #17 Kentucky (7:30 PM, SECN)

The Wildcats of Kentucky are feeling it right now. I don't know why they aren't ranked. Running back Benny Snell Jr. is a monster (in a good way). He has 540 yards rushing and seven touchdowns through four games. I've finally bought in to Kentucky's football team. I hope they don't let me down.

Spread: UK -1  O/U: 51.5

Prediction: Kentucky 32, South Carolina 24


#20 BYU @ #11 Washington (8:30 PM, FOX)

Hey, another matchup between ranked teams! This game originally scheduled for 7:30 (I think), but now it's 8:30, because people like to mess with me. I don't think this game will be as close as the rankings may suggest. BYU is overrated (nothing against BYU). Plus, Washington is at home.

Spread: WASH -17  O/U: 46

Prediction: Washington 38, BYU 20



Ole Miss @ #5 LSU (9:00 PM, ESPN)

LSU is riding high, and I don't think Ole Miss has the power to bring the Tigers down. If you remember the last time Ole Miss played a ranked team (two weeks ago), the Rebels. got smacked by Alabama, 62-7. LSU isn't 'Bama (nobody is), but LSU is LSU, which is still pretty good.

Spread: LSU -10.5  O/U: 59.5

Prediction: LSU 34, Ole Miss 19



#19 Oregon @ #24 California (10:30 PM, FS1)

This week's installment of #PAC12AfterDark features a team that fumbled away a big win last weekend against a team that might not be as good as the numbers suggest. Cal is 3-0, but the Bears' best win was against BYU, and their wins against the Cougars and UNC were both close. Oregon should be 4-0, but blew a big lead to Stanford last week and lost in overtime. I think Justin Herbert and the Ducks will take a big lead and not relinquish it this Saturday night.

Spread: ORE -1.5  O/U: 58

Prediction: Oregon 40, California 27


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via ESPN.com and OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thursday Afternoon

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