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| Two teams with a lot of history face off Saturday night (Photo via uhnd.com) |
It's finally (officially) back. After seven months of transfers, recruiting commitments and scandals, college football teams are back on the field. Although the NCAA Division I season technically kicked off last week, the real excitement begins this week (sorry Wyoming). The holiday weekend features several intriguing games, including three between AP Top 25 teams.
With the return of college football comes the return of my college football weekly previews. I am not a psychic (though I think I could pass as one if I needed to), but I will attempt to predict the outcome of every game involving a Top 25 team, and I will also try to beat the spread and the over/under on each game. I'm excited for a new season of football. Let's get started.
Thursday
#21 UCF @ UConn (7:00 PM, ESPNU)
The Knights of Central Florida are coming off an undefeated season (and, if you ask them, a "National Championship"). They lost their coach (Scott Frost went back home to Nebraska), but not their star quarterback. McKenzie Milton is a potential Heisman candidate, and he has plenty of talent around him. Meanwhile, Connecticut is coming off its second straight three-win season. This is technically a conference game, but UConn is a cupcake for UCF.
Spread: UCF -24 Over/Under: 70
Prediction: UCF 45, UConn 20
Friday
Utah State @ #11 Michigan State (7:00 PM, Big Ten Network)
The Spartans bring back much of the team that went 10-3 last season, including quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back LJ Scott. Utah State kicks off the season against a ranked Big 10 team for the second straight year. In the first week of the 2017 season, the Aggie got walloped by Wisconsin (59-10). I expect a similar result against Michigan State.
Spread: MSU -23 Over/Under: 50.5
Prediction: Michigan State 52, Utah State 14
Western Kentucky @ #4 Wisconsin (9:00 PM, ESPN)
Speaking of Wisconsin, the Badgers open the 2018-19 season as title contenders. After a 13-1 2017-18 season, Wisconsin gets star running back Jonathan Taylor (who finished third in the nation in rushing yards as a freshman last year) back, along with quarterback Alex Hornibrook and the entire offensive line. The Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky are no match for Wisky.
Spread: WIS -36 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Wisconsin 48, Western Kentucky 6
San Diego State @ #13 Stanford (9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1)
Last season, San Diego State, led by Rashaad Penny, triumphed over Bryce Love and Stanford. Penny is in the NFL now. Love is still in college, and the Heisman hopeful has a formidable offensive line in front of him. The Aztec defense could potentially keep this game close for awhile, but the Cardinal should emerge victorious.
Spread: STAN -14 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Stanford 28, San Diego State 17
Saturday
Oregon State @ #5 Ohio State (Noon, ABC)
The Buckeyes won't have Urban Meyer for their first three games, but they don't need Urban Meyer with all the talent they have on the field. After
Spread: OHIOST -38.5 Over/Under: 64
Prediction: Ohio State 54, Oregon State 13
Florida Atlantic @ #7 Oklahoma (Noon, FOX)
Gone is Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, who was drafted first overall by the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Draft. In his place is Kyler Murray, who was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland Athletics in the MLB Draft. He signed with the A's, but he will still return for one season in Norman. The extremely athletic Murray will lead a team that should once again contend for a spot in the Playoff. Lane Kiffin has done a good job at FAU, coaching them to an 11-3 record last season, but the Owls don't have the talent to match the Sooners.
Spread: OKLA -21 Over/Under: 72
Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Florida Atlantic 20
Southern @ #16 TCU (Noon)
Like Oklahoma, TCU will not have a lot of experience under center (sophomore Shawn Robinson is starting the opener), but will still have a lot of talent all over the field. The Horned Frogs have a dangerous front seven defensively, and, as usual, athletes to get it done on offense. I am not sure where Southern University is. It's such a vague name for a school. I'm assuming it is somewhere in the South (Update: Southern University and A&M College is located in Baton Rouge, Louisiana). Regardless, the Jaguars don't stand a chance against Texas Christian.
Prediction: TCU 55, Southern 3
#23 Texas @ Maryland (Noon, Fox Sports 1)
This is a rematch of last season's opener for each team, when Maryland beat 23rd-ranked Texas 51-41. Maryland will be without head coach DJ Durkin (who is on paid administrative leave), but with or without Durkin, the Terps may have a hard time replicating last year's first-week upset. I'm going with the Longhorns to avenge last season's loss.
Spread: TEX -13.5 Over/Under: 53.5
Prediction: Texas 35, Maryland 21
Furman @ #2 Clemson (12:20 PM, ACC Network)
The Clemson Tigers enter this season looking to get into the College Football Playoff for the fourth straight year. The Tigers return quarterback Kelly Bryant to lead a talented offense, but the defense is ever scarier, returning eight starters, including defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence. The last time Clemson played Furman (an FCS school) was in 2012, and the Tigers beat the Paladins (I have no idea what a Paladin is) 41-7. It won't be that close this time.
Prediction: Clemson 42, Furman 3
Austin Peay @ #3 Georgia (3:30 PM, ESPN)
The run of "warm-up" games against Football Championship Subdivision teams continues as the defending
Prediction: Georgia 35, Austin Peay 7
#6 Washington vs. #9 Auburn (3:30 PM, ABC)
Here we go! Our first matchup of the season featuring two ranked teams. This year's installment of the annual "Chick-Fil-A Kickoff" game (which is in Atlanta) features Washington and Auburn. Points may be hard to come by, as both the Huskies and Tigers boast strong defenses. But they also boast strong quarterbacks in Jake Browning and Jarrett Stidham. I think it will come down to which quarterback plays better, and I think the senior (Browning) will out-duel the junior (Stidham).
Spread: AUB -2.5 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Washington 28, Auburn 24
Appalachian State @ #10 Penn State (3:30 PM, BTN)
If you haven't been following Appalachian State football recently (which you really should be), you may not realize the Mountaineers are an FBS team (and have been for a few years). You also may not realize that App State has not beaten a ranked team since the memorable stunner against Michigan in 2009 (though the Mountaineers did take ninth-ranked Tennessee to overtime in the first week of 2016). The Nittany Lions may be without Saquon Barkley, but they still have a lot of playmakers, including senior quarterback Trace McSorely. We won't see a repeat of 2007 on Saturday.
Spread: PSU -24 Over/Under: 54
Prediction: Penn State 45, Appalachian State 10
Tennessee vs. #17 West Virginia (3:30 PM, CBS)
These foes from the SEC and Big 12 (respectively) face off in Charlotte, North Carolina Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers get quarterback Will Grier (34 touchdown passes last season) and wide receiver David Sills V (18 touchdowns last season) back, among others, while the Volunteers are in rebuild mode after a 4-8 finish in 2017. With the uncertainty at quarterback - along with many other positions - for Tennessee (and the certainty at quarterback for WVU), West Virginia shouldn't have much of a problem against the Vols.
Spread: WVU -10 Over/Under: 61.5
Prediction: West Virginia 35, Tennessee 21
UNLV @ #15 USC (4:00 PM, PAC-12 Network)
Out West, two schools with acronym-based names that start with the letter U face off at 4:00. The Trojans lost quarterback Sam Darnold to the NFL, and they are replacing him with true freshman J.T. Daniels (Daniels is just the second true freshman to start at quarterback for USC, the first being Matt Barkley). They also have to replace running back Ronald Jones, who left for the NFL after running for over 1,500 yards last season. USC has a talented team, but there's some youth and inexperience at important positions. Luckily, youth and inexperience shouldn't matter much against a UNLV team that went 5-7 last year.
Spread: USC -26.5 Over/Under: 63.5
Prediction: USC 32, UNLV 10
#22 Boise State @ Troy (6:00 PM, ESPN News)
The Blue Field Broncos start the season away from Boise against a team that beat LSU last season. The Trojans of Troy (who were 11-2 in 2017) cannot be overlooked. They lost their starting quarterback and starting running back from last year, but return key contributors from a defense that finished 11th in points allowed per game. Boise State won last season's meeting between these two 24-13, and I expect a similar result this Saturday.
Spread: BSU -10 Over/Under: 48
Prediction: Boise State 27, Troy 14
#14 Michigan @ #12 Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC)
This Saturday's primetime game features a battle between two historic heavyweights. Michigan brings one of the best defenses in the country into South Bend, as well as a new quarterback (Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson). Notre Dame also has a stout defense. Offensively, Brandon Wimbush returns at quarterback for the Irish, this time without running back Josh Adams (who ran for 1,400 yards in 2017) and offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey (both top-10 draft picks). This may be the tightest matchup on the entire slate, but I'm going to go with the Wolverines and their elite defense (and improved offense) to win a nail-biter at Notre Dame.
Spread: ND -1.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Michigan 21, Notre Dame 20
Stephen F. Austin @ #18 Mississippi State (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
The time slot is really the only similarity between this matchup and Michigan-Notre Dame. Mississippi State will be without quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who was suspended one game for violating team rules in March, but the Bulldogs will have true freshman Keytaon Thomas, who led them to a win over Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl while Fitzgerald was injured. The Lumberjacks, and FCS team, went 4-7 last season. Easy first week for Mississippi State.
Prediction: Mississippi State 34, Stephen F. Austin 7
Louisville vs. #1 Alabama (8:00 PM, ABC)
The defending champs don't get an FCS cupcake Week 1, but they do get a Louisville squad sans Lamar Jackson. Both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailo will probably see time at quarterback for the Tide, and they will have a lot of new (but talented) guys around them. Although the Cardinals don't have the electrifying Jackson (his replacement is sophomore Jawon Pass), they do have several other key starters back. I'm not ruling out Louisville's chances completely, but the Tide should roll in this opener in Orlando.
Spread: ALA -24.5 Over/Under: 62.5
Prediction: Alabama 38, Louisville 21
Bowling Green @ #24 Oregon (8:00 PM, PAC-12 Network)
The most interesting aspect of this matchup will probably be whatever uniforms Oregon decides to wear. The Ducks are on their third head coach in three years, but they do have a talented quarterback (junior Justin Herbert) and an experienced offensive line. And as always, they have speed on the outside. Bowling Green finished 2-10 last season. There won't be much MACtion in Eugene Saturday night.
Spread: ORE -32 Over/Under: 72
Prediction: Oregon 62, Bowling Green 28
Sunday
#8 Miami vs. #25 LSU (7:30 PM, ABC)
We still have one more week before the NFL regular season begins, but we can fill the void this Sunday with a top-10 college football matchup in AT&T Stadium. Fifth-year senior Malik Rosier returns at quarterback for Miami, while junior Joe Burrow, a transfer from Ohio State who beat out sophomore Myles Brennan, will start for LSU. The Tigers had an up-and-down 2017, while the Canes cruised through much of the season (and created the "Turnover Chain") before fading late. Now both are hoping the be Playoff contenders. I'll go with Burrow and the Tigers at home.
Spread: MIA -3.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: LSU 32, Miami 28
Monday
#20 Virginia Tech @ #19 Florida State (8:00 PM, ESPN)
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! The holiday weekend ends with a top-20 battle between two teams looking to make some noise this season. FSU struggled to a 7-6 record in 2017, then lost head coach Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M. New coach Willie Taggart will have veteran quarterback Deondre Francois to lean on, if Francois can stay healthy. He'll also have the running back tandem of sophomore Cam Akers (who broke the school record for freshman rushing yards) and senior Jacques Patrick. Frank Beamer's defensive-minded Hokies also have their quarterback (sophomore Josh Jackson) back, and, as always, will be hard to score against. I'm going with Francois and the host Seminoles.
Spread: FSU -7.5 Over/Under: 55
Prediction: Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 14
Stats and info via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders as of Thursday Afternoon
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