Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Weekly Picks: Thanksgiving (and Black Friday) Edition

It's officially holiday season, and it kicks off this week with Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The NFL and college football are in the holiday spirit as well, as multiple football games will be played on Thursday and Friday. Because of that, I have decided to combine my weekly college football article and my weekly fantasy football article to create one for the Thursday and Friday games (I will still do my normal weekly articles as well). To celebrate the festivities, I will make my picks for the college and NFL games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and I will give some players I like in fantasy football this week from the Thanksgiving Day games. Before we get started, I would like to say that I am thankful for all of you. Without all of my readers (or "skimmers"), I would have little reason to continue doing this every week. So thank you all. I am also thankful for my two associates, Troy and Langston, for helping expand and improve this blog. I strongly urge you to read their articles as well (if you don't already). Alright, let's get started.

College Football

Play of Week 12: "Trojan Horse"


Who doesn't love a good ol' fake punt return punt return for a touchdown? On a night when two future NFL quarterbacks went at it out West, USC's special teams stole the show with this beauty of a fake that had everyone fooled. It would help the Trojans hang on to beat the Bruins, 28-23.


(Mis)Play of Week 12: "Kansas is Really Bad at Football"


Kansas played Oklahoma last weekend. That's not noteworthy. What is noteworthy is the fact the Kansas's captains all refused to shake Baker Mayfield's hand during the coin toss. Look, maybe they didn't shake Baker's hand because he's a cocky trashtalker (which is a bad reason not to shake somebody's hand), but you are a 1-10 team playing a Playoff contender, and you just gave the Heisman Trophy favorite more motivation to destroy you (which is what he and the Sooners did). Baker also responded by talking some trash. Everybody involved has been demoted from captain this week.


Performance of Week 12:
Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (vs. NEV)


24 carries, 222 yards rushing, 2 TD; 429 all-purpose yards, 4 total TD

Not only did the nation's leading rusher have 222 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in a 42-23 win over Nevada, he also ran a kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown and ran a punt back 70 yards for a touchdown.


Picks

Record
Last Week: 22-1   vs. Spread: 12-9   O/U: 11-10
Season: 177-41   vs. Spread: 98-92-3   O/U: 91-101-1

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Thusday
Ole Miss 21, #14 Mississippi State 34 (7:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: MISSST -14.5   O/U: 65
The first big time rivalry game of the week is the Egg Bowl, which is the only college game being played on Thanksgiving. After almost beating Bama, the Bulldogs beat Arkansas by just a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Rebels lost by a touchdown to Texas A&M. Since this is a rivalry game, it could be close, but Mississippi State is clearly the better team.

Friday
#2 Miami 32, Pittsburgh 24 (Noon, ABC)
Line: MIAMI -13.5   O/U: 51.5
Friday features four games involving ranked teams, and many other games between non-ranked teams. The unbeaten Hurricanes should waltz into the ACC title game without much trouble, but they've had some close calls on the road this season. Even in a down year, Pat Narduzzi will have his team ready to play. Miami could cut it close again, but I expect the Canes to remain unbeaten.

Baylor 14, #12 TCU 31 (Noon, FS1)
Line: TCU -24.5   O/U: 51
TCU can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Friday by beating lowly Baylor. The 1-10 Bears are not good by any stretch of the imagination, but they have played some very good teams tough, including Oklahoma (lost by eight) and West Virginia (lost by two). The Horned Frogs may not crush Baylor, but they should win easily, especially with Kenny Hill coming back from injury.

South Florida 28, #15 UCF 35 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: UCF -10   O/U: 62
Don't look now, but South Florida - Central Florida may be the game of the weekend. The 9-1 Bulls will travel to Orlando to battle the 10-0 Knights with a berth in the AAC Championship on the line. I was tempted to go with South Florida in an upset over its rival, but UCF has undeniably looked like the best team in the American Conference this season.

#25 Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 19 (ESPN, 8:00 PM)
Line: VATECH -7.5   O/U: 50
Black Friday night features the battle of Virginia, as the Hokies and Cavaliers fight for the Commonwealth Cup. After dropping two in a row, Tech bounced back against Pitt last week. On the other side, Virginia has lost four of its last five. The host Hoos might make this rivalry game close, but the Hokies will prove too much in the end.


NFL

Top Performers of Week 11
QB: Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. ATL)
26-42, 258 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble; 7 carries, 86 yards rushing, 1 TD

RB: LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ LAC)
13 carries, 114 yards rushing, 1 TD; 1 catch, 12 yards receiving, 1 TD

WR: Antonio Brown, Steelers (vs. TEN)
10 catches, 144 yards receiving, 3 TD

TE: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (vs ATL)
7 catches, 58 yards receiving, 1 TD

D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CLE)
7 points allowed, 184 yards allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 3 fumble recoveries, 1 TD

K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (@ OAK)
FG: 4-4 (62 yards, 51 yards, 40 yards, 29 yards)  XP: 3-3


Picks

Record
Last Week: 8-5   vs. Spread: 5-7-1   O/U: 6-7
Season: 91-57   vs. Spread: 69-73-5   O/U: 72-71-2

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Vikings 32, Lions 27 (12:30 PM, FOX)
Line: MIN -3   O/U: 44.5
I was tempted to go with the Turkey Day Lions on Thursday, but I'm on the Viking Train. I think Case Keenum, Adam Thielen and company will outlast the Lions with some help from the Minnesota defense.

Chargers 21, Cowboys 17 (4:30 PM, CBS)
Line: LAC -2.5   O/U: 47.5
After absolutely destroying Nathan Peterman (who should not have been starting over Tyrod Taylor) in a rout of Buffalo last week, I think the Chargers will keep that momentum going against the struggling Cowboys.

Giants 14, Washington 24 (8:30 PM, NBC)
Line: WAS -7.5   O/U: 44.5
The Giants shocked the Chiefs last week, while Washington lost its second game in a row. However, I'm not taking the momentum route in this one. I think Washington pulls away from New York on Thanksgiving night.


Some Players I Like in Fantasy on Thanksgiving
Players I like Thursday who aren't obvious starts

Quarterback
Case Keenum, Vikings (@ DET)
Case has turned into an above-average starting quarterback. He has thrown for 2,194 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games this season, and he plays a below-average passing defense Thursday in Detroit.

Running Back
Samaje Perine, Washington (vs. NYG)
With both Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson out for the season, Perine is now the workhorse in Washington. Last week, he 117 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and Thursday he faces a the third-worst rush defense in the NFL.

Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder, Washington (vs. NYG)
With receiving options Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Chris Thompson all out, Crowder is now the number one option in the passing game for Washington. Last week, he caught seven passes for 72 yards.

Tight End
Evan Engram, Giants (@ WAS)
Out of all of the tight ends playing on Thursday, Engram is the top option. Even after a very quiet game last week, Engram is still a must-start due to his volume and role in the depleted Giant offense.

Defense
San Diego Chargers (@ DAL)
The Dallas offense has been sputtering recently, scoring a total of 16 points combined the last two games. Los Angeles's opportunistic defense scored two touchdowns last week against Buffalo.

Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders as of Wednesday Evening

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)











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