Play of Week 11: "Boise State Bounce"
Boise State looked dead in the water last Saturday night at Colorado State. The Broncos were down 52-38 with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Brett Rypien threw a touchdown pass to bring them within a touchdown with 1:41 on the clock, but the Broncos would need to successfully execute an onside kick. They decided to fake it to one side, then Joel Velazquez put the kick just in the right spot, bouncing it over a Colorado State player and right into the hands of a Boise State player. Boise State would go on to score another touchdown and then win it in overtime. As Pat McAfee would say, this is good for the brand.
(Mis)Play of Week 11: "High Tide"
Mississippi State came so close to being the iceberg that sank Alabama. The Bulldogs were up 24-17 with under five minutes to play. After Alabama tied it, Mississippi State had a chance to go win it following a missed field goal from Crimson Tide kicker Andy Pappanastos with just over two minutes remaining. The Bulldogs were forced to punt with under a minute remaining, and just had to hold Alabama for about 50 seconds. They were unable to do that, as the Tide scored with 25 seconds remaining. Mississippi State got two final shots at the end zone (since a penalty was called on Alabama during the first Hail Mary), but Nick Fitzgerald's second Hail Mary throw didn't give anyone a chance to catch it, as it was heaved out of the back of the end zone.
Performance of Week 11:
Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma (vs. TCU)
23 carries, 151 yards rushing, 2 TD; 5 catches, 139 yards receiving, 2 TD
Baker Mayfield is the favorite to win the Heisman, but it was his backfield mate who dismantled TCU's defense last weekend. Anderson, who has been plagued by injuries the last two years, secured over 100 rush yards for the fourth straight games, and matched his two touchdowns on the ground with two scores (and over 100 yards) through the air.
Picks
Record
Last Week: 12-4 vs. Spread: 8-7-1 O/U: 9-6-1
Season: 155-40 vs. Spread: 86-83-3 O/U: 80-91-1
Mercer 3, #1 Alabama 52 (Noon, SECN)
It's cupcake week for the SEC, and it starts with Alabama, which reclaimed the number one spot after Auburn blew out Georgia. The Crimson Tide almost suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday against Mississippi State, but they shouldn't be in any danger of suffering their first loss against Mercer, a 5-5 FCS team. It's a glorified bye week for the SEC's top teams.
Virginia 17, #3 Miami 31 (Noon, ABC)
Line: MIAMI -9 O/U: 50.5
The U might be back. The Hurricanes made a statement last Saturday night when they whooped Notre Dame, but Miami still hasn't played a really good team outside of Hard Rock Stadium. That won't happen this week, but Miami still can't overlook the 6-4 Cavaliers. The Canes (as they've done on multiple occasions this season) may make it close, but they should get the win.
#24 Michigan 21, #5 Wisconsin 28 (Noon, FOX)
Line: WISC -7.5 O/U: 40.5
This weekend's lone battle between ranked teams is a monumental game in the Big Ten. Unbeaten Wisconsin, fresh off a thumping of Iowa, hosts the Wolverines, who seem to have finally found an offense with Brandon Peters at quarterback. This will be Wisconsin's toughest test so far, but I think home-field advantage will propel the Badgers to victory.
Louisiana Monroe 10, #6 Auburn 48 (Noon, ESPN2)
Line: AUBURN -36.5 O/U: 68
Auburn, unlike Alabama, actually plays an FBS team this week, but it's still a glorified bye week for the Tigers. Last week's 40-17 whacking of Georgia was a statement win for Auburn, and now the Tigers are probably looking ahead to the Iron Bowl next week against Alabama. The 4-5 UL-Monroe Warhawks pose very little threat against the team whose battle cry is (for some reason) "War Eagle".
#12 TCU 52, Texas Tech 42 (Noon, FS1)
Line: TCU -6 O/U: 53.5
The Horned Frogs will look to pick themselves up off the floor after Oklahoma knocked them out last week. A trip to Lubbock won't be the most relaxing vacation for TCU, which must win its last two games to secure a spot in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders could give the Frogs a bit of a challenge, but TCU should be able to pull away.
#15 UCF 45, Temple 32 (Noon, ESPNU)
Line: UCF -13.5 O/U: 55.5
UCF, the third of the three remaining unbeatens, will look to avoid getting tripped up by a hot Temple team when the Knights travel to Philadelphia Saturday. After two straight losses, the Owls have bounced back with wins over Navy and Cincinnati. I could see a game similar to when UCF played Navy, where Temple keeps it close, but Central Florida pulls away in the end.
#16 Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 13 (Noon, CBS)
Line: MISSST -13 O/U: 57.5
Unlike Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi State, which almost knocked off the Tide last weekend, actually play a team in a Power Five conference this Saturday. However, that Power Five team isn't much of a threat. A week after beating Coastal Carolina (a team that's currently 1-9) by one point, the 4-6 Razorbacks got trounced, 33-10, by LSU. Miss State should cruise.
SMU 28, #21 Memphis 42 (Noon, ESPNN)
Line: MEMP -12.5 O/U: 71.5
It may fly under the radar, but this game is an important one in the AAC race. If Memphis wins out, it will play UCF in the conference championship. But first, the 8-1 Tigers (who haven't played in two weeks) must get past SMU, a team coming off close losses to Central Florida and Navy. I think the host Tigers will pick up right where they left off.
Minnesota 17, #23 Northwestern 30 (Noon, BTN)
Line: NWEST -7 O/U: 40.5
Northwestern looks to extend its five-game winning streak to six on Saturday when the Wildcats host Minnesota. During that win streak, Northwestern has gone to overtime three times. The Golden Gophers made it close against Michigan State and Iowa, so they might be able to make it close here. In the end, though, I think the host Wildcats take care of business.
The Citadel 0, #2 Clemson 42 (12:20 PM, ACCN)
The number two team in the country, like the number one team, has a cupcake this weekend. The Tigers play The Citadel, a 5-5 FCS team. The ACC Championship Game matchup has already been determined, as Clemson will play Miami in Charlotte on December 2. The Tigers shouldn't have much trouble up until that point.
Illinois 14, #9 Ohio State 62 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: OHIOST -41 O/U: 53.5
The Buckeyes followed up an ugly loss to Iowa with a drubbing of Michigan State, keeping their slim Playoff hopes alive. Ohio State fans are already looking ahead to The Game next week, and for good reason. Illinois is 2-8, and hasn't won since September 9. Ohio State will be looking to continue its strong play from last week, and I expect the Buckeyes to run away with the Illibuck.
#4 Oklahoma 49, Kansas 3 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: OKLA -37 O/U: 70.5
Number four Oklahoma doesn't play an FCS team this week, but Kansas might as well be one. The Jayhawks are 1-9 this season (after winning two games last season), their only win coming at the beginning of the season against Southeast Missouri State. Expect Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the Sooner offense to shred Kansas to pieces.
Kentucky 14, #7 Georgia 38 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -21.5 O/U: 51.5
After suffering its first loss of the season last weekend, Georgia will look to get back in the win column when it hosts Kentucky Saturday. The Bulldogs must be weary of the 7-3 Wildcats, who are coming off a 23-point victory at Vanderbilt last week. I expect Georgia to be ready to play, and I think the dangerous tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will run all over Kentucky.
Navy 30, #8 Notre Dame 42 (3:30 PM, NBC)
Line: ND -17.5 O/U: 58.5
Notre Dame, like Georgia, will try to pick up the pieces after a bad loss last weekend. The Irish host Navy, a dangerous team coming off a hard-fought win against SMU. I think the Midshipmen will keep it close with their triple option offense, but I fully expect Notre Dame to come out with a bounce-back victory in South Bend.
Kansas State 27, #13 Oklahoma State 44 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Line: OKLAST -19.5 O/U: 65
Oklahoma State, fresh off a big win over Iowa State, hosts 5-5 Kansas State Saturday afternoon. This will probably be a shootout (as most games involving these teams are), and Kansas State, which lost a close one to West Virginia last week, could make things interesting. However, I think Mason Rudolph and company will pull away from the Wildcats.
Nebraska 10, #10 Penn State 48 (4:00 PM, FS1)
Line: PSU -26 O/U: 55.5
After suffering two losses in a row, Penn State got back in the win column with a rout of lowly Rutgers last week. The Nittany Lions host another below-average Big Ten team this weekend. 4-6 Nebraska got walloped by Minnesota, 54-21, last Saturday. I expect the host Nittany Lions to give the Cornhuskers a similar result this Saturday.
Maryland 17, #17 Michigan State 35 (4:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MICHST -16 O/U: 43
After being embarrassed by Ohio State last weekend, Michigan State returns home to play Maryland Saturday afternoon. The 4-6 Terrapins are not playing well, having lost four of their last five games. This is exactly the kind of matchup the Spartans want in their attempt to bounce back this week. I think they won't have a problem doing just that.
#20 LSU 38, Tennessee 20 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: LSU -15.5 O/U: 45.5
Tennessee, now headed by Brady Hoke, will probably see its troubles continue Saturday when it hosts LSU. After firing Butch Jones, the Volunteers got routed by Missouri, 51-17, last week. That doesn't bode well against Ed Orgeron's team, which has won four of its last five (two against ranked teams). Expect Tennessee's struggles to continue Saturday night.
#19 NC State 21, Wake Forest 28 (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: WAKE -1.5 O/U: 63
There aren't a whole lot of enticing matchups this weekend, but Saturday night gives us a potential one between two solid ACC teams. Both teams have challenged top teams (Wake Forest lost by 14 to Clemson and 11 to Notre Dame, while NC State lost by seven to Clemson). I'll go with the host Demon Deacons in what could be a hotly-contested battle.
UCLA 28, #11 USC 45 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: USC -16 O/U: 71.5
Saturday night's primetime ABC game features two potential first round draft picks at quarterback. Josh Rosen's Bruins bounced back from two straight losses with a win over Arizona State last week, but Sam Darnold's Trojans, who have won three in a row, are definitely the better team, and are playing at home. Rosen can only do so much.
California 21, #22 Stanford 34 (8:00 PM, FOX)
Line: STNFRD -15.5 O/U: 55.5
The FOX primetime game could turn into an interesting one out West. Both teams are coming off wins following losses, but while Cal beat lowly Oregon State, Stanford stuck a fork in the Pac-12's Playoff hopes by beating Washington. I think the Cardinal, led by Heisman candidate Bryce Love, will wear down the Bears.
Air Force 14, #25 Boise State 38 (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
Line: BOISE -17.5 O/U: 57
The Blue Field Broncos have found their way back into the Top 25 after a comeback overtime victory in Colorado last week. After losing two of its first four games, Boise State has won six in a row. Air Force, which has lost its last two, will have a really hard time stopping the streaking Broncos in Boise Saturday night.
Utah 24, #18 Washington 42 (10:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: WASH -17.5 O/U: 46.5
The night ends (as it usually does) with some #Pac12AfterDark, as Washington looks to keep its Pac-12 Championship hopes alive against Utah. Both teams are coming off losses, but the reeling Utes have four of their last five. I kept believing in the Utes, and they kept letting me down. So I'm going to go with the host Huskies in this one.
Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Morning
To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)
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