Play of Week 9: "Ducking Incredible"
Late in the 3rd quarter of Oregon's 41-20 win over Utah last Saturday, the Ducks ran a trick play, reversing to Charles Nelson, who was then supposed to throw it. Unfortunately, Utah was not fooled. The Utes had Nelson dead to rights in the backfield, but somehow, he kept his footing, regained position, and threw it up to Jacob Breeland, who caught it in double coverage.
(Mis)Play of Week 9: "Ole Missed the Mark"
Ole Miss, a team that was in the Sugar Bowl just two seasons ago, dropped to 3-5 on the season after blowing a 31-7 lead to Arkansas. Contributing to the blown lead were two fumbles (one returned for a touchdown) and an interception. The Rebels lost, 38-37.
Performance of Week 9: J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
33-39, 328 yards passing, 4 TD; 17 carries, 95 yards rushing
The senior quarterback jumped into the Heisman conversation with an incredible comeback performance against second-ranked Penn State. Barrett was 14 for 14 in the 4th quarter, throwing three touchdown passes to lead the Buckeyes to a 39-38 victory.
Picks
Record
Last Week: 10-5 vs. Spread: 5-9 O/U: 7-7
Season: 131-31 vs. Spread: 72-66-1 O/U: 65-74
(Home Teams Listed Last) (All Times Eastern)
#7 Penn State 35, #24 Michigan State 14 (Noon, FOX)
Line: PSU -9.5 O/U: 48
Both teams will be looking to bounce back after crushing conference losses last week. Penn State suffered a heartbreaking loss in Columbus, while MSU suffered a triple-overtime heartbreaker in Chicago. The Nittany Lions have shown that they are definitely the superior team here. They shouldn't have much trouble with the Spartans on Saturday.
#9 Wisconsin 30, Indiana 24 (Noon, ABC)
Line: WISC -13.5 O/U: 48.5
Indiana might be Wisconsin's toughest test thus far. That says more about Wisconsin's weak schedule than it does about how good Indiana is. However, the Hoosiers played Michigan, Michigan State and Maryland tough the past three weeks, and the host Hoosiers could challenge a Badger team that has yet to see a challenge. I still expect the talented Badgers to win.
#14 Auburn 34, Texas A&M 17 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: AUBURN -15 O/U: 51.5
After being upset by LSU, Auburn came back and destroyed Arkansas. After testing Alabama and beating Florida, Texas A&M came back and got destroyed by Mississippi State. The Aggies could keep it close like they did with Alabama, but it'll take some more incredible plays from Kellen Mond. I think the Tigers will roll in this one.
UMass 10, #16 Mississippi State 45 (Noon, SECN)
Line: MISSST -31.5 O/U: 56.5
Not much to see here. Mississippi State traveled to College Station last week and beat up on Texas A&M. The Massachusetts Minutemen are 2-6. Those two wins have come in their last two games, but they were against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. The Bulldogs should have absolutely have no problem with the Minutemen.
South Carolina 14, #1 Georgia 32 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -23.5 O/U: 45
Both of these teams come into this game playing very well. South Carolina has won three in a row, and Georgia has been playing well all season. The combination of a hot South Carolina team and raised expectations for Georgia could lead to a shocking upset, but I think the Bulldogs will prove too much for the Gamecocks in Athens.
Wake Forest 17, #3 Notre Dame 39 (3:30 PM, NBC)
Line: ND -14.5 O/U: 55
Notre Dame, the one team that almost beat Georgia, has also been cruising. The Fighting Irish have played ranked teams each of the last two weeks, and have easily dispatched of both of them. Wake Forest is a decent team, but I think the host Irish will cruise to another victory before their highly-anticipated matchup with Miami next week.
#6 Ohio State 44, Iowa 28 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: OHIOST -18 O/U: 52.5
Ohio State is right back in the Playoff conversation after a big comeback victory over Penn State. The Buckeyes need to be careful coming off of an emotional high, especially in Iowa City against a tough Hawkeye team. Led by the experience and leadership of Urban Meyer and J.T. Barrett, I think Ohio State will avoid a letdown on Saturday.
#4 Clemson 24, #20 NC State 14 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: CLEM -7.5 O/U: 51
The Playoff committee was favorable towards Clemson in the initial rankings, so the Tigers are definitely in control of their own destiny. A trip to NC State won't be easy, but I think quarterback Kelly Bryant and the Tiger defense will lead the defending champs past the Wolfpack, who are reeling after getting routed by Notre Dame last week.
#15 Iowa State 35, West Virginia 28 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Line: WVU -2.5 O/U: 60
Iowa State showed that it is the real deal after knocking off previously unbeaten TCU last week. Meanwhile, West Virginia couldn't keep up with Oklahoma State. I think veteran quarterback Will Grier and the home-field advantage will keep the Mountaineers in this one, but Matt Campbell's surging Cyclones are clearly on a mission, so I think they pull this one out.
#21 Stanford 30, #25 Washington State 27 (3:30 PM, FOX)
Line: WASHST -1 O/U: 55
Over in the PAC-12 (which, of course, stands for Playoffs Aren't Coming), Stanford and Washington State face off in a battle of ranked teams. After starting strong, the Cougars have gotten routed in two of their last three games (including last week against Arizona). After starting slow, the Cardinal have won five straight. I think the streaks continue Saturday afternoon.
#5 Oklahoma 38, #11 Oklahoma State 31 (4:00 PM, FS1)
Line: OKLAST -1.5 O/U: 76
This might be the best matchup of the weekend, and it is monumentally important in the Big 12. These teams are probably the conference's best shots at the Playoff. It'll be a battle between two offenses with highly-talented quarterbacks. I think Baker Mayfield and the Sooners will pull out the victory over Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys.
Texas 24, #8 TCU 28 (7:15 PM, ESPN)
Line: TCU -7 O/U: 47
TCU will look to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the season last week against Iowa State. The Horned Frogs can't take Texas (a team that beat Iowa State) lightly. Tom Herman's team has had multiple near-upsets against ranked teams (all three of their game against ranked teams have been decided by five points or less). I think that trend continues on Saturday night.
#18 UCF 42, SMU 27 (7:15 PM, ESPN2)
Line: UCF -14.5 O/U: 73
Central Florida, the "forgotten unbeaten team" (because of strength of schedule), cruises into Dallas on Saturday to battle Southern Methodist. I wouldn't rule out an upset by the 6-2 Mustangs, but the Knights are a finely-tuned machine whose closest margin of victory was 10 (two weeks ago at Navy). I expect UCF to remain undefeated.
#19 LSU 17, #2 Alabama 34 (8:00 PM, CBS)
Line: BAMA -21 O/U: 48.5
Alabama will get its toughest test of the season (thus far) when it hosts LSU Saturday night. After getting shocked by Troy, the Tigers have reeled off three straight victories, two of them against ranked teams. However, it's hard to bet against Nick Saban's team, which has been firing on all cylinders. I don't think LSU has enough firepower to overcome the Tide.
#13 Virginia Tech 20, #10 Miami 23 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: VATECH -1 O/U: 46
A key ACC matchup happens Saturday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies travel to Miami to battle the unbeaten Canes. Each of Miami's last four games have been decided by one possession, and I expect the Hurricanes to endure another tight one against a tough Virginia Tech team. However, I think the Canes once again escape unscathed.
Oregon 27, #12 Washington 45 (10:00 PM, FS1)
Line: WASH -16.5 O/U: 53
Washington bounced back from an upset at the hands of Arizona State with a rout of UCLA last weekend. Oregon bounced back from a loss to UCLA with a rout of Utah. Oregon could make this interesting, but I think the host Huskies, who have beaten every team they've played handily (except ASU, of course), will cruise to victory.
#22 Arizona 32, #17 USC 28 (10:45 PM, ESPN)
Line: USC -7.5 O/U: 76
The night ends with a enticing matchup out west. The surging Wildcats, led by electric quarterback Khalil Tate, face off with the up-and-down Trojans, led by potential number one pick Sam Darnold. If Arizona had inserted Tate at starting quarterback at the beginning of the season, I think the Wildcats would be unbeaten. I'm riding the Tate Train until it derails.
Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon
To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)
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