Saturday, November 4, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

The NFL Trade Deadline was this past Tuesday, and this year, it was more eventful than usual. Multiple trades had major fantasy implications. Let's take a look at each of them:

The Chicago Bears acquired WR Dontrelle Inman from the L.A. Chargers
The Bears have lost Cameron Meredith, Kevin White and Zach Miller for the season due to injury. Their most-targeted receiver is running back Tarik Cohen. The Chargers have been looking for a suitor for Inman, who had 810 yards and four touchdowns last season, and they found one in injury-depleted Chicago. Due to the Chicago offense's ineffectiveness and reliance on the running game, Inman isn't someone I would seriously consider in fantasy. However, if you need a receiver off the waiver wire (or you play daily fantasy), you could do worse than Inman, who could step in as Chicago's number one receiver.

The Philadelphia Eagles acquired RB Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins made a surprising move by trading their young feature back to Philadelphia. I think this will diminish Ajayi's value in fantasy, since he goes from a more run-oriented offense where he was the workhorse back to a more pass-oriented offense where he will have to fight for carries with LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood. With Ajayi gone, it looks like Kenyan Drake will be the main guy in Miami. In an offense that will probably continue counting on the running game (Jay Cutler and Matt Moore are the quarterbacks), Drake is worth a look.

The Buffalo Bills acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin from the Carolina Panthers
In a Trade Deadline buzzer-beater deal, Carolina traded star red-zone threat Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo. This deal gives Tyrod Taylor a big target to throw to (something he hasn't really had), but this deal might hurt Benjamin's value a little, since the Bills have such a run-heavy offense. Nonetheless, he's still probably going to be Buffalo's number one receiver, so he is still a good fantasy receiver. Over in Carolina, the departure of Benjamin helps Devin Funchess, who immediately becomes Cam Newton's number one receiver. Christian McCaffrey (and other Panther pass-catchers) also should see a boost in production.

The San Francisco 49ers acquired QB Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots
Jimmy G was finally traded, but it was the 49ers (not the Browns) who pulled the trigger. Word is that they will bring him along slowly, so it appears C.J. Beathard will be the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. I would stay away from any 49er quarterback in fantasy this season.


Top Performers of Week 8
QB: Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. HOU)
26-41, 452 yards passing, 4 TD, 1 INT;  4 carries, 30 yards rushing

RB: LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ OAK)
27 carries, 151 yards rushing, 1 TD;  6 catches, 22 yards receiving

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ SEA)
8 catches, 224 yards receiving, 1 TD

TE: Jack Doyle, Colts (@ CIN)
12 catches, 121 yards receiving, 1 TD

D/ST: Baltimore Ravens (vs. MIA)
0 points allowed, 2 INT, 2 TD


Picks

Record
Last Week: 10-2   vs. Spread: 6-6   O/U: 5-7
Season: 66-44   vs. Spread: 49-57-3   O/U: 52-54-1

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Sunday
Ravens 17, Titans 10 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: TEN -3.5  O/U: 43
Buccaneers 14, Saints 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: NO -7  O/U: 52
Rams 20, Giants 10 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: LAR -4.5  O/U: 42
Broncos 13, Eagles 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: PHI -7.5  O/U: 41.5
Falcons 35, Panthers 28 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: ATL -2.5  O/U: 42
Bengals 7, Jaguars 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: JAC -6  O/U: 39
Colts 21, Texans 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: HOU -7  O/U: 45.5
Cardinals 32, 49ers 7 (4:05 PM, FOX)  Line: ARI -2.5  O/U: 39.5
Washington 13, Seahawks 24 (4:05 PM, FOX)  Line: SEA -7.5  O/U: 45
Chiefs 30, Cowboys 28 (4:25 PM, CBS)  Line: DAL -2.5  O/U: 53.5
Raiders 24, Dolphins 17 (8:30 PM, NBC)  Line: OAK -3  O/U: 44
Monday
Lions 38, Packers 23 (8:30 PM, ESPN)  Line: DET -2  O/U: 43.5


Players I Like This Week

Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. KC)
Dak is having another stellar season, totaling 14 touchdowns and four interceptions thus far. He didn't find the endzone last week, but I expect him to score at least once against at home against Kansas City. The Chiefs pass defense the ranks 29th in the NFL (261 yards allowed per game).

Matthew Stafford, Lions (@ GB)
The gun-slinging Lions quarterback, who threw for 423 yards (but zero touchdowns) last week, should have another productive week against a relatively weak Packers defense. Stafford has thrown the ball over 30 times in each of Detroit's game so far this season. 

Jared Goff, Rams (@ NYG)
Goff has been solid in real life, but unspectacular in fantasy due to Los Angeles's run-heavy offense. However, he's an appealing option this week for those in need of a quarterback. The Giants rank 28th in pass defense (259 yards allowed per game), and gave up 334 yards and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson.

Running Back
Lamar Miller, Texans (vs. IND)
With Deshaun Watson out for the season after tearing his ACL in practice this week, Houston will probably lean more on the running game. Miller should be able to find space against Indianapolis, which has the second worst defense in the league (417 total yards allowed per game).

Joe Mixon, Bengals (@ JAX)
Mixon has overtaken the bulk of the running back duties in Cincinnati, and while the Bengals have not run the ball much, they might this week against Jacksonville, which owns the worst rushing defense in the NFL (138.6 yards allowed per game)

Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (vs. OAK)
I'm putting Drake here because he takes over Jay Ajayi's duties in Miami. Drake and Ajayi were the only players to receive carries last week in a blowout loss to Baltimore, so Drake will probably get a lot of the work. The key will be whether the Dolphins fall behind early again and have to abandon the run.

Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant, Cowboys (vs. Chiefs)
Dez was quiet last week, catching four passes for 39 yards. I expect a louder game this week in a big game against the Chiefs. As I said the earlier, Kansas City has third-worst pass defense in the league, so look for Bryant to find some success Sunday afternoon

Devin Funchess, Panthers (vs. ATL)
With Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess immediately becomes Carolina's top receiver and red zone target. Funchess's targets had gone down in recent weeks, but expect production more like he had earlier in the season, when he three touchdowns in two games.

Ryan Grant, Washington (@ SEA)
Jamison Crowder, who caught nine passes for 123 yards last week, has been ruled out this week. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Niles Paul are also out, and free-agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor has been non-existent. That means Grant, who had five catches for 58 yards last week should get some more work.

Tight End
Jack Doyle, Colts (@ HOU)
Doyle has been Jacoby Brissett's favorite target this season, and last week, Doyle had his biggest game thus far, catching 12 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. If it ain't broke, there is no reason to fix it, so expect Brissett to continue looking to Doyle this Sunday.

Vernon Davis, Washington (@ SEA)
It looks like Davis will be Washington's starting tight end this weekend with Jordan Reed and Niles Paul ailing. Davis had two catches for 20 yards last week, and might produce more against a team that gave up 402 yards and four touchdowns to Deshaun Watson last week.

George Kittle, 49ers (@ PHI)
If you're really in need of a tight end this weekend, Kittle is a possible option. The Niners are going to throw passes to someone, especially against the Eagles, who have the 27th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, and leading receiver Pierre Garcon went on IR this week.

Defense
Arizona Cardinals (@ SF)
San Francisco already had the had a bottom-ten offense, and that was before Brian Hoyer was cut and Pierre Garcon was put on IR. C.J. Beathard and San Francisco's ragtag offense don't inspire much confidence. It won't be hard for the Cards to stop the Niners on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams (@ NYG)
Somehow, New York's offense has been worse than San Francisco's (and Cleveland's, believe it or not). The Giants rank 27th in the NFL in total offense (296.4 yards per game), and they face a Rams defense that ranks in the top half of the league.

Tennessee Titans (vs. BAL)
Baltimore's offense has been statistically worse than all of the teams I've talked about so far, ranking 31st in the NFL. Tennessee's defense has been solid, ranking just below the Rams (16th, allowing 329.4 total yards per game).

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Saturday Night



To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)




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