Fantasy Football Week 11 Preview (and Picks)

Before I begin with my players to watch in fantasy football this week, a few things: First, I am saddened to tell you that the playoff hopes of the Red Hot Jabrilli Peppers (3-7) and Delanie Walker Texas Ranger (3-7) have died. For the first time in my fantasy career (I think), I will miss the playoffs. And I'll do so in two of my three leagues. Rest In Peace. On a happier note, I would like to thank Jared Goff and Robert Woods for propelling me to victory in my other league (helping The Real Slim Shady improve to 5-5) and for winning me money in daily fantasy. Lastly, I have added the kicker position to the Top Performers section, because they are people too (plus, Greg the Leg is averaging more fantasy points than some starting quarterbacks). That is all.


Top Performers of Week 10
QB: Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. MIA)
21-35, 254 yards passing, 4 TD;  5 carries, 95 yards rushing

RB: Mark Ingram, Saints (@ BUF)
21 carries, 131 yards rushing, 3 TD

WR: Robert Woods, Rams (vs. HOU)
8 catches, 171 yards receiving, 2 TD

TE: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (@ ARI)
6 catches, 27 yards, 2 TD

D/ST: Atlanta Falcons (vs. DAL)
7 points allowed, 233 yards allowed, 8 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries

K: Greg Zuerlein, Rams (vs. HOU)
FG: 4-4 (27 yards, 33 yards, 50 yards, 33 yards)  XP: 3-3

Picks

Record:
Last Week: 9-4   vs. Spread: 7-6   O/U: 8-5
Season: 83-52   vs. Spread: 64-66-4   O/U: 66-64-2

Sunday
Jaguars 28, Browns 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: JAC -7.5   O/U: 37
Lions 35, Bears 20 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: DET -3   O/U: 41
Ravens 17, Packers 10 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: BAL -2   O/U: 38
Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 19 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: TB -1   O/U: 41.5
Rams 33, Vikings 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MIN -2.5   O/U: 45.5
Washington 21, Saints 35 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: NO -7.5   O/U: 51.5
Chiefs 32, Giants 14 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: KC -10   O/U: 46
Cardinals 24, Texans 16 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: HOU -2   O/U: 37.5
Bills 17, Chargers 21 (4:05 PM, FOX)
Line: LAC -5.5   O/U: 41
Bengals 17, Broncos 14 (4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: DEN -2.5   O/U: 38
Patriots 28, Raiders 35 (Mexico, 4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: NE -7.5   O/U: 54.5
Eagles 38, Cowboys 21 (8:30 PM, NBC)
Line: PHI -5.5   O/U: 48
Monday
Falcons 31, Seahawks 28 (8:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: SEA -2.5   O/U: 45


Fantasy Football Players I Like This Week
Players I like this week who aren't obvious starts

Quarterback
Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. NE)
Carr hasn't been as successful this season as he was last season, but he has still been a quality quarterback. Plus, the Raiders are coming off a bye week (meaning everybody's well-rested), and New England owns the league's worst pass defense (287 yards allowed per game).

Alex Smith, Chiefs (@ NYG)
After a scorching start to the season, Smith has come back down to earth a bit, but this week he gets the 1-8 Giants, who have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL (268 yards allowed per game) and just surrendered 288 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Beathard.

Jay Cutler, Dolphins (vs. TB)
Cutler is never a great fantasy option, but he's been playing decently, and Sunday he plays a Tampa Bay team that ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense (266 yards allowed per game). With talented weapons in Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, Cutler could have a lot of success this weekend.

Running Back
Jay Ajayi, Eagles (@ DAL)
Since coming over from Miami, Ajayi has become Philadelphia's number one back. Last week, Ajayi took eight handoffs for 77 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have said that they're going to give Ajayi more work, and he could turn that added work into more production this week.

Duke Johnson Jr., Browns (vs. JAX)
Jacksonville's pass defense is airtight, but its rushing defense is a weak spot. The Jaguars rank 25th in the NFL against the run (120.7 yards allowed per game). While Isaiah Crowell was the more productive back last week, expect Duke to get lots of work running and catching the ball in the bad weather.

Chris Thompson, Washington (@ NO)
Rob Kelley was put on IR this week, and Jordan Reed and Terrelle Pryor have been ruled out. That means the playmaking Thompson will see more action on Sunday (both on the ground and through the air) in what could turn into a high-scoring game.

Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker, Dolphins (vs. TB)
Parker had been pretty productive this season when healthy, and this week he should continue the high production against Tampa Bay. As I noted when talking about Jay Cutler, the Buccaneers rank 29th in the league in pass defense, so Parker should be in for another solid game.

Marqise Lee, Jaguars (@ CLE)
Lee is Jacksonville's clear number one receiver, and the number two pass-catcher (Allen Hurns) has been ruled out for this game. The weather could limit his production, but he should get plenty of looks against Cleveland's porous pass defense.

Dontrelle Inman, Bears (vs. DET)
The Chicago offense hasn't been a paradise for receivers this season, but Inman has stepped in and become the leading target. Last week, in his first game for the Bears, Inman six passes for 88 yards. This week, he goes up against Detroit's 25th-ranked pass defense.

Tight End
Austin Hooper, Falcons (@ SEA)
Hooper has been the second most productive receiver for the Falcons this season, and he's seen six targets in each of the last three games. Seattle's pass defense is solid, but the Seahawks haven't been as stout against tight ends. Hooper could be in for a productive Monday night.

Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. NE)
Cook leads the Raiders in receiving yards this season. Before the bye, he caught eight passes for 126 yards (his second game of over 100 yards this year). I've already talked about New England, which struggles mightily against the pass. Cook will find room on Sunday.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (@ CLE)
This is the weekly "tight end playing Cleveland". Lewis has seen 11 total targets the last two games, and if he's healthy (he is currently questionable for Sunday's game), he will probably find the end zone at least once against the Browns, as most tight ends do.

Defense
Kansas City Chiefs (@ NYG)
Kansas City's defense hasn't been among the best this season, but it is still a solid defense. The floundering New York Giants rank near the bottom of the league in offense, and they just gave San Francisco its first win of the season last week.

Cincinnati Bengals (@ DEN)
Cincinnati's defense ranks in the top half of the league, but the main reason I've listed the Bengals here is because they play our good friend Brock Osweiler. In two starts this season, Osweiler has thrown three interceptions. Denver's offense in general has been stagnant recently.

Cleveland Browns (vs. JAX)
The word "Cleveland" and "Browns" may be turnoffs, but a few things are working in Cleveland's favor. First, the Browns defense has been above average. Second, Leonard Fournette and Allen Hurns are out Sunday. Third, the weather may not be conducive to a lot of offense.

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Saturday Afternoon


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 12 College Football Picks

Last weekend was an eventful one in college football. Number one and number three went down, and number two and number four had to sweat out victories. This part of the college football season is kind of like a hurricane. After a few crazy weeks, we're in the eye of the hurricane this weekend, but we won't be in it for long. Even with what looks to be an uneventful week for some of the top teams, there are still some intriguing matchups.


Play of Week 11: "Boise State Bounce"

Boise State looked dead in the water last Saturday night at Colorado State. The Broncos were down 52-38 with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Brett Rypien threw a touchdown pass to bring them within a touchdown with 1:41 on the clock, but the Broncos would need to successfully execute an onside kick. They decided to fake it to one side, then Joel Velazquez put the kick just in the right spot, bouncing it over a Colorado State player and right into the hands of a Boise State player. Boise State would go on to score another touchdown and then win it in overtime. As Pat McAfee would say, this is good for the brand.


(Mis)Play of Week 11: "High Tide"

Mississippi State came so close to being the iceberg that sank Alabama. The Bulldogs were up 24-17 with under five minutes to play. After Alabama tied it, Mississippi State had a chance to go win it following a missed field goal from Crimson Tide kicker Andy Pappanastos with just over two minutes remaining. The Bulldogs were forced to punt with under a minute remaining, and just had to hold Alabama for about 50 seconds. They were unable to do that, as the Tide scored with 25 seconds remaining. Mississippi State got two final shots at the end zone (since a penalty was called on Alabama during the first Hail Mary), but Nick Fitzgerald's second Hail Mary throw didn't give anyone a chance to catch it, as it was heaved out of the back of the end zone.


Performance of Week 11: 

Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma (vs. TCU)

23 carries, 151 yards rushing, 2 TD; 5 catches, 139 yards receiving, 2 TD

Baker Mayfield is the favorite to win the Heisman, but it was his backfield mate who dismantled TCU's defense last weekend. Anderson, who has been plagued by injuries the last two years, secured over 100 rush yards for the fourth straight games, and matched his two touchdowns on the ground with two scores (and over 100 yards) through the air.

Picks

Record
Last Week: 12-4   vs. Spread: 8-7-1   O/U: 9-6-1
Season: 155-40   vs. Spread: 86-83-3   O/U: 80-91-1

Mercer 3, #1 Alabama 52 (Noon, SECN)
It's cupcake week for the SEC, and it starts with Alabama, which reclaimed the number one spot after Auburn blew out Georgia. The Crimson Tide almost suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday against Mississippi State, but they shouldn't be in any danger of suffering their first loss against Mercer, a 5-5 FCS team. It's a glorified bye week for the SEC's top teams.

Virginia 17, #3 Miami 31 (Noon, ABC)
Line: MIAMI -9   O/U: 50.5
The U might be back. The Hurricanes made a statement last Saturday night when they whooped Notre Dame, but Miami still hasn't played a really good team outside of Hard Rock Stadium. That won't happen this week, but Miami still can't overlook the 6-4 Cavaliers. The Canes (as they've done on multiple occasions this season) may make it close, but they should get the win.

#24 Michigan 21, #5 Wisconsin 28 (Noon, FOX)
Line: WISC -7.5   O/U: 40.5
This weekend's lone battle between ranked teams is a monumental game in the Big Ten. Unbeaten Wisconsin, fresh off a thumping of Iowa, hosts the Wolverines, who seem to have finally found an offense with Brandon Peters at quarterback. This will be Wisconsin's toughest test so far, but I think home-field advantage will propel the Badgers to victory.

Louisiana Monroe 10, #6 Auburn 48 (Noon, ESPN2)
Line: AUBURN -36.5   O/U: 68
Auburn, unlike Alabama, actually plays an FBS team this week, but it's still a glorified bye week for the Tigers. Last week's 40-17 whacking of Georgia was a statement win for Auburn, and now the Tigers are probably looking ahead to the Iron Bowl next week against Alabama. The 4-5 UL-Monroe Warhawks pose very little threat against the team whose battle cry is (for some reason) "War Eagle".

#12 TCU 52, Texas Tech 42 (Noon, FS1)
Line: TCU -6   O/U: 53.5
The Horned Frogs will look to pick themselves up off the floor after Oklahoma knocked them out last week. A trip to Lubbock won't be the most relaxing vacation for TCU, which must win its last two games to secure a spot in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders could give the Frogs a bit of a challenge, but TCU should be able to pull away.

#15 UCF 45, Temple 32 (Noon, ESPNU)
Line: UCF -13.5   O/U: 55.5
UCF, the third of the three remaining unbeatens, will look to avoid getting tripped up by a hot Temple team when the Knights travel to Philadelphia Saturday. After two straight losses, the Owls have bounced back with wins over Navy and Cincinnati. I could see a game similar to when UCF played Navy, where Temple keeps it close, but Central Florida pulls away in the end.

#16 Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 13 (Noon, CBS)
Line: MISSST -13   O/U: 57.5
Unlike Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi State, which almost knocked off the Tide last weekend, actually play a team in a Power Five conference this Saturday. However, that Power Five team isn't much of a threat. A week after beating Coastal Carolina (a team that's currently 1-9) by one point, the 4-6 Razorbacks got trounced, 33-10, by LSU. Miss State should cruise.

SMU 28, #21 Memphis 42 (Noon, ESPNN)
Line: MEMP -12.5   O/U: 71.5
It may fly under the radar, but this game is an important one in the AAC race. If Memphis wins out, it will play UCF in the conference championship. But first, the 8-1 Tigers (who haven't played in two weeks) must get past SMU, a team coming off close losses to Central Florida and Navy. I think the host Tigers will pick up right where they left off.

Minnesota 17, #23 Northwestern 30 (Noon, BTN)
Line: NWEST -7   O/U: 40.5
Northwestern looks to extend its five-game winning streak to six on Saturday when the Wildcats host Minnesota. During that win streak, Northwestern has gone to overtime three times. The Golden Gophers made it close against Michigan State and Iowa, so they might be able to make it close here. In the end, though, I think the host Wildcats take care of business.


The Citadel 0, #2 Clemson 42 (12:20 PM, ACCN)
The number two team in the country, like the number one team, has a cupcake this weekend. The Tigers play The Citadel, a 5-5 FCS team. The ACC Championship Game matchup has already been determined, as Clemson will play Miami in Charlotte on December 2. The Tigers shouldn't have much trouble up until that point.


Illinois 14, #9 Ohio State 62 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: OHIOST -41   O/U: 53.5
The Buckeyes followed up an ugly loss to Iowa with a drubbing of Michigan State, keeping their slim Playoff hopes alive. Ohio State fans are already looking ahead to The Game next week, and for good reason. Illinois is 2-8, and hasn't won since September 9. Ohio State will be looking to continue its strong play from last week, and I expect the Buckeyes to run away with the Illibuck.


#4 Oklahoma 49, Kansas 3 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: OKLA -37   O/U: 70.5
Number four Oklahoma doesn't play an FCS team this week, but Kansas might as well be one. The Jayhawks are 1-9 this season (after winning two games last season), their only win coming at the beginning of the season against Southeast Missouri State. Expect Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the Sooner offense to shred Kansas to pieces.


Kentucky 14, #7 Georgia 38 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -21.5   O/U: 51.5
After suffering its first loss of the season last weekend, Georgia will look to get back in the win column when it hosts Kentucky Saturday. The Bulldogs must be weary of the 7-3 Wildcats, who are coming off a 23-point victory at Vanderbilt last week. I expect Georgia to be ready to play, and I think the dangerous tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will run all over Kentucky.


Navy 30, #8 Notre Dame 42 (3:30 PM, NBC)
Line: ND -17.5   O/U: 58.5
Notre Dame, like Georgia, will try to pick up the pieces after a bad loss last weekend. The Irish host Navy, a dangerous team coming off a hard-fought win against SMU. I think the Midshipmen will keep it close with their triple option offense, but I fully expect Notre Dame to come out with a bounce-back victory in South Bend.


Kansas State 27, #13 Oklahoma State 44 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Line: OKLAST -19.5   O/U: 65
Oklahoma State, fresh off a big win over Iowa State, hosts 5-5 Kansas State Saturday afternoon. This will probably be a shootout (as most games involving these teams are), and Kansas State, which lost a close one to West Virginia last week, could make things interesting. However, I think Mason Rudolph and company will pull away from the Wildcats. 


Nebraska 10, #10 Penn State 48 (4:00 PM, FS1)
Line: PSU -26   O/U: 55.5
After suffering two losses in a row, Penn State got back in the win column with a rout of lowly Rutgers last week. The Nittany Lions host another below-average Big Ten team this weekend. 4-6 Nebraska got walloped by Minnesota, 54-21, last Saturday. I expect the host Nittany Lions to give the Cornhuskers a similar result this Saturday.


Maryland 17, #17 Michigan State 35 (4:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MICHST -16   O/U: 43
After being embarrassed by Ohio State last weekend, Michigan State returns home to play Maryland Saturday afternoon. The 4-6 Terrapins are not playing well, having lost four of their last five games. This is exactly the kind of matchup the Spartans want in their attempt to bounce back this week. I think they won't have a problem doing just that.


#20 LSU 38, Tennessee 20 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: LSU -15.5   O/U: 45.5
Tennessee, now headed by Brady Hoke, will probably see its troubles continue Saturday when it hosts LSU. After firing Butch Jones, the Volunteers got routed by Missouri, 51-17, last week. That doesn't bode well against Ed Orgeron's team, which has won four of its last five (two against ranked teams). Expect Tennessee's struggles to continue Saturday night.


#19 NC State 21, Wake Forest 28 (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: WAKE -1.5   O/U: 63
There aren't a whole lot of enticing matchups this weekend, but Saturday night gives us a potential one between two solid ACC teams. Both teams have challenged top teams (Wake Forest lost by 14 to Clemson and 11 to Notre Dame, while NC State lost by seven to Clemson). I'll go with the host Demon Deacons in what could be a hotly-contested battle.


UCLA 28, #11 USC 45 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: USC -16   O/U: 71.5
Saturday night's primetime ABC game features two potential first round draft picks at quarterback. Josh Rosen's Bruins bounced back from two straight losses with a win over Arizona State last week, but Sam Darnold's Trojans, who have won three in a row, are definitely the better team, and are playing at home. Rosen can only do so much.


California 21, #22 Stanford 34 (8:00 PM, FOX)
Line: STNFRD -15.5   O/U: 55.5
The FOX primetime game could turn into an interesting one out West. Both teams are coming off wins following losses, but while Cal beat lowly Oregon State, Stanford stuck a fork in the Pac-12's Playoff hopes by beating Washington. I think the Cardinal, led by Heisman candidate Bryce Love, will wear down the Bears.


Air Force 14, #25 Boise State 38 (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
Line: BOISE -17.5   O/U: 57
The Blue Field Broncos have found their way back into the Top 25 after a comeback overtime victory in Colorado last week. After losing two of its first four games, Boise State has won six in a row. Air Force, which has lost its last two, will have a really hard time stopping the streaking Broncos in Boise Saturday night.


Utah 24, #18 Washington 42 (10:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: WASH -17.5   O/U: 46.5
The night ends (as it usually does) with some #Pac12AfterDark, as Washington looks to keep its Pac-12 Championship hopes alive against Utah. Both teams are coming off losses, but the reeling Utes have four of their last five. I kept believing in the Utes, and they kept letting me down. So I'm going to go with the host Huskies in this one.

Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Morning

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Fantasy Football Week 10 Preview (and Picks)

We have hit double digits! It's Week 10, and we're in the stretch run of the season. Every move you make in fantasy football from here on out is crucial. Let's get going.


Top Performers of Week 9
QB: Jared Goff, Rams (@ NYG)
14-22, 311 yards passing, 4 TD

RB: Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs. TB)
10 carries, 68 yards rushing, 1 TD;  6 catches, 84 yards receiving, 1 TD

WR: T.Y. Hilton, Colts (@ HOU)
5 catches, 175 yards receiving, 2 TD

TE: Jared Cook, Raiders (@ MIA)
8 catches, 126 yards receiving

D/ST: New Orleans Saints (vs. TB)
10 points allowed, 200 yards allowed, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 blocked punt, 1 TD

Picks

Record
Last Week: 8-4   vs. Spread: 8-3-1   O/U: 6-5-1
Season: 74-48   vs. Spread: 57-60-4   O/U: 58-59-2

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Sunday
Saints 30, Bills 17 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: NO -3   O/U: 46.5
Packers 21, Bears 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: CHI -5.5   O/U: 37.5
Browns 20, Lions 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: DET -10.5   O/U: 43.5
Bengals 14, Titans 17 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: TEN -4.5   O/U: 40.5
Steelers 35, Colts 14 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: PIT -10   O/U: 45
Jets 27, Buccaneers 10 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: NYJ -2.5   O/U: 43.5
Vikings 21, Washington 23 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: MIN -1.5   O/U: 42
Chargers 17, Jaguars 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: JAC -4.5   O/U: 41
Texans 7, Rams 30 (4:05 PM, CBS)  Line: LAR -11   O/U: 45.5
Cowboys 27, Falcons 31 (4:25 PM, FOX)  Line: ATL -3   O/U: 48.5
Giants 24, 49ers 17 (4:25 PM, FOX)  Line: NYG -2.5   O/U: 42
Patriots 45, Broncos 24 (8:30 PM, NBC)  Line: NE -7.5   O/U: 45.5
Monday
Dolphins 16, Panthers 31 (8:30 PM, ESPN)  Line: CAR -9   O/U: 38.5


Players I Like This Week

Quarterback
Jared Goff, Rams (vs. HOU)
Goff has made great strides in his sophomore season (he has 13 touchdowns and four interceptions), and I've jumped on the bandwagon. After lighting up the Giants for 51 points, he and the L.A. offense get a Houston team that has been ravaged by injuries. I expect Goff's strong season to continue this week.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (@ ATL)
Now that Ezekiel Elliott has been suspended (for what feels like the 14th time), Dak will carry more of the offense on his shoulders (and legs). Cam Newton ran all over Atlanta last week, and Dak will probably do some more running without Zeke in the fold.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@ IND)
Big Ben has had a rough season, but he finds a welcoming matchup this week when the Steelers travel to Indianapolis. The Colts rank 31st in the NFL in passing defense (279.7 yards allowed per game), and Ben has the weapons to shred Indianapolis up.


Running Back
Orleans Darkwa, Giants (@ SF)
After carrying the ball 16 times for 71 yards last week, Orleans draws a great matchup this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rushing defense (135.7 yards allowed per game). Plus, Darkwa should get more carries, as the Giants probably won't get blown out 51-17 again (but there is a chance).

Bilal Powell, Jets (@ TB)
Matt Forte has experienced a renaissance of sorts lately, but with him out this week, Powell takes over as the lead back. He does so against Tampa Bay, a team with an injured starting quarterback and a weak defense. Expect Powell to see a lot of action on Sunday.

Alfred Morris, Cowboys (@ ATL)
I put Morris here not because of his matchup this week, but because he is the running back I would pick up to replace Ezekiel Elliott. He and Darren McFadden will probably share carries, but Morris has been Zeke's primary backup all season, while McFadden has been inactive.


Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson, Jets (@ TB)
Runnin' Robby has turned into a dangerous weapon for the surprising Jets, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games. I wouldn't be surprised if Anderson finds the endzone again this week against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th against the pass (272 yards allowed per game).

Robert Woods, Rams (vs. HOU)
Someone has to be on the receiving end of Jared Goff's breakout, and that someone is the former USC standout. Woods has accumulated 59 yards or more in each of his last four games, and last week, he scored two touchdowns. Expect Goff to continue looking his way.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (@ IND)
JuJu, the talented, fun-loving speedster (who just got his license this week), has become a key part of the Pittsburgh offense (last game, he caught seven passes for 193 yards and a touchdown), and he should be able to find separation this week against Indy's poor pass defense.


Tight End
Evan Engram, Giants (@ SF)
After opportunity arose due to injuries, Engram took full advantage. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and is being heavily targeted in the talent-starved New York offense. San Francisco's pass defense isn't much better than its rush defense.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (@ WAS)
Rudolph continues to be a big part of the Minnesota offense (no matter whose in at quarterback), and against a Washington defense that struggles against tight ends, that should continue. It doesn't matter if an actual case or an actual bridge over water is throwing passes.

Eric Ebron, Lions (vs. CLE)
Ebron has fallen off fantasy radars, but I'll throw him in here because he'll probably find his way into the endzone against the Cleveland defense, which is among the most tight end-friendly defenses in the league. Ebron could be an option in daily fantasy this week.


Defense
New York Jets (@ TB)
First of all, look how loose and confident this unit is. Now look again. And again. What was I talking about? Oh yeah. The Jets defense is feeling good right now, and they should also feel good about a matchup against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the sputtering Buccaneers this weekend.

New England Patriots (@ DEN)
Speaking of matchups to feel good about, the Patriots go to Denver Sunday night to play Brock Osweiler and the offensively-challenged Broncos. New England's defense hasn't been great this season (especially against the pass), but any defense looks good against Brock Osweiler.

Chicago Bears (vs. GB)
No, the Bears did not acquire a time machine. However, they do have an enticing matchup this week against a Green Bay Packer team that lost its entire offense when Aaron Rodgers went down. Brett Hundley has four picks and just one touchdown in his three starts.

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Friday Afternoon


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 11 College Football Picks

It's a big week in college football. There are seven games between ranked teams on Saturday. That's the most ranked matchups we've had in a week this season (I don't actually know if that's true; I'm just guessing). Major shifts could occur in conference standings and in the College Football Playoff rankings. This weekend should be fun.


Play of Week 10: "Air Jackson"

Iowa absolutely dominated Ohio State in Iowa City last Saturday. The offense put up 55 on the vaunted Buckeye defense, and the defense picked off J.T. Barrett four times, including the incredible one-handed grab by Josh Jackson.


(Mis)Play of Week 10: "Gage Balls Out"

I've mentioned the hurdling trend in college football, and LSU's Russell Gage tried to get in on the trend last week against Alabama. He tried to hurdle Alabama defender Minkah Fitzpatrick and ended up taking a shot right to the groin. Remember, hurdling looks cool, but there are major risks involved. 


Performance of Week 10: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

24-36, 598 yards passing, 5 TD, 2 INT; 1 rushing TD

On a day when J.T. Barrett and Saquon Barkley struggled, Baker Mayfield asserted his dominance and took the lead in the Heisman race. In a shootout with Oklahoma State, Baker threw for nearly 600 yards and accounted for six total touchdowns, getting the last laugh in a 62-52 victory at Oklahoma State.

Picks:

Record
Last Week: 12-5   vs. Spread: 6-10-1   O/U: 6-11
Season: 143-36   vs. Spread: 78-76-2   O/U: 71-85

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

#12 Michigan State 24, #13 Ohio State 38 (Noon, FOX)
Line: OHIOST -17   O/U: 53.5
The Spartans shocked Penn State last week, while the Buckeyes got shocked by Iowa a week after shocking Penn State. These two teams are currently tied for first place in the Big Ten East (both at 7-2 overall and 5-1 in conference play), so this is a huge game. I think Ohio State will bounce back from last weekend's ugly loss with a big conference win in the Horseshoe.

Rutgers 3, #14 Penn State 42 (Noon, BTN)
Line: PSU -31   O/U: 52.5
After starting the season 7-0, the Nittany Lions have suffered two close losses in a row. The Lions are still in the Big Ten East race, but they can't afford another loss. They shouldn't be too concerned about the possibility of a third loss in a row against the 4-5 Scarlet Knights in Happy Valley Saturday. Rutgers has only won one road game so far this season (October 14 at Illinois).

#15 Oklahoma State 45, #21 Iowa State 35 (Noon, ABC/ESPN2)
Line: OKLAST -6.5   O/U: 60.5
A big weekend in the Big 12 starts at noon on Saturday, when two conference contenders coming off hard-fought losses meet in Ames, Iowa. The Cyclones will look to bounce back from a loss to Will Grier and West Virginia, but they'll have to beat Mason Rudolph and an Oklahoma State team that put up 52 points in a loss to Oklahoma. I think the Cowboy offense will propel them past Iowa State.

Connecticut 14, #18 UCF 62 (Noon, ESPNU)
Line: UCF -40.5   O/U: 64
There are five remaining unbeatens in college football (Georgia, Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin, and Central Florida), and I think the the Knights are the least likely to suffer their first loss this weekend. They host the 3-6 UConn Huskies, who own the second-worst defense in the FBS (554 yards allowed per game). UCF owns the fifth-best offense in the FBS (540 yards per game).

#23 NC State 35, Boston College 24 (Noon, ABC/ESPN2)
Line: NCST -3   O/U: 52
This will be a matchup of two teams going in different directions. The Eagles have won their last three games, while the Wolfpack have lost their last two. But, to be fair, those two losses were to Notre Dame and Clemson. NC State has to be careful on the road against the streaking Eagles, but I think the Wolfpack will leave Massachusetts with a victory.

Arkansas 10, #24 LSU 28 (Noon, ESPN)
Line: LSU -17   O/U: 55
LSU became the latest team to run into the Alabama buzzsaw last weekend, losing 24-10 to the Tide in Tuscaloosa. This weekend presents a much easier situation, as the Tigers host 4-5 Arkansas. After getting demolished by South Carolina, Bama, and Auburn, the Razorbacks have won their last two games by two points combined. This one won't be as close.

#17 Virginia Tech 30, Georgia Tech 24 (12:20 PM, ESPN)
Line: VATECH -3   O/U: 50
Virginia Tech couldn't keep up with the Canes in Miami last Saturday, and the Hokies face another tough test Saturday afternoon at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets, who almost beat Miami earlier in the season, are looking to get back on track following two straight losses. They might do that against Virginia Tech, but I think the Hokies prevail on the strength of their defense.

#1 Georgia 21, #10 Auburn 24 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -2.5   O/U: 47
This weekend, Georgia faces it's toughest challenge since it beat Notre Dame by one point in South Bend early in the season. It won't be easy when the Bulldogs travel to Auburn to play the 7-2 Tigers. This will be a defensive battle (Georgia's defense ranks 4th in the nation, while Auburn's ranks 13th), and I think the battle-tested Tigers will pull of the upset at home Saturday afternoon.

Florida State 13, #4 Clemson 32 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: CLEM -16   O/U: 46
Florida State's season went off the rails after the Seminoles lost quarterback Deondre Francois in the first week of the season, and Clemson's Playoff hopes almost went off the rails last week against NC State. Jimbo Fisher's team will try to play Clemson tough, but I don't think the host Tigers will have to sweat nearly as much as they did last weekend.

#20 Iowa 31, #8 Wisconsin 28 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: WISC -12   O/U: 46
The unbeaten Badgers face their first real test of the season when they host Iowa Saturday afternoon. The Hawkeyes are coming off a dismantling of Ohio State, and, while most of their wins have come at home, they did beat Iowa State on the road. Wisconsin is a talented team, but I think this strong Iowa team will give Wisky its first loss of the season this weekend.

#11 USC 40, Colorado 21 (4:00 PM, FOX)
Line: USC -12.5   O/U: 64.5
After looking real shaky in their first eight games, Sam Darnold and the Trojans have looked a lot better in wins against Arizona State and Arizona. This week, they leave the state of Arizona (and California) to play Colorado. After starting the season 3-0, the Buffaloes are 2-5 in their last seven games. They'll have a tough time keeping up with the surging Trojans on Saturday.

#19 Washington State 24, Utah 27 (5:30 PM, PAC12N)
Line: WASHST -1   O/U: 52
Both the Cougars and Utes have fallen off a bit after strong starts to the season, but both teams are coming off wins. A week after losing to Arizona, Washington State held on to beat Stanford last Saturday, while Utah snapped a four game losing streak with a rout of UCLA last Friday. I think the host Utes will ride their defense to an upset victory Saturday evening.

#2 Alabama 30, #16 Mississippi State 21 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: BAMA -13.5   O/U: 50.5
The Crimson Tide also face a tough test this weekend (or at least what appears to be a possible tough test) when they travel to Starkville to battle Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs. I think Mississippi State could keep it close with Alabama (something only Texas A&M has done this season), but Nick Saban's team just has too much firepower. 

Purdue 20, #25 Northwestern 34 (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
Line: NWEST -4.5   O/U: 48.5
Northwestern has found its way into the CFP rankings following four straight wins (two of them against teams that are currently ranked), but if the Wildcats want to stay there, they can't take 4-5 Purdue (a team that's lost four games by eight points or less) for granted. I don't think Pat Fitzgerald's team will take Purdue for granted Saturday night in Chicago.

#3 Notre Dame 28, #7 Miami 27 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: ND -3   O/U: 57.5
The last two (ranked) games of the day should be fun ones. On ABC, we have the reboot of "Catholics vs. Convicts", as the one-loss Irish travel to Miami to face off with the unbeaten Canes. I could see this going either way, but Notre Dame has looked more dominant than the Hurricanes, who have come dangerously close to losing on multiple occasions.

#6 TCU 32, #5 Oklahoma 42 (8:00 PM, FOX)
Line: OKLA -6.5   O/U: 61.5
Over on FOX, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the Sooners face their second highly-ranked opponent in a row. Both TCU and Oklahoma have one loss, and both of those losses came at the hands of Iowa State. This will probably be another shootout for Oklahoma, but as we saw last week, Baker and company excel in shootouts.

Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Morning

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

College Hoops Preview 2017-2018

Do you smell that smell? That smelly smell. That smelly smell that smells...smelly. *GASP* BASKETBALL!

As a result of the long-awaited arrival of the new college basketball season, we here at Head In The Game are bringing you a conference by conference (well, at least seven of them) preview of the season. In addition, each conference will receive one award apiece in the category that they are most deserving of. We'll just go ahead and jump right in on our 100% accurate conference standing predictions (plus or minus 100%) and awards.

American

1. Wichita State
2. Cincinnati
3. UCF
4. SMU
5. UCONN
6. Temple
7. Houston
8. Tusla
9. Memphis
10. Eastern Carolina
11. Tulane
12. South Florida

Wichita State is the clear favorite here. The Shockers and Cinci are the only two that seem to be locks for the tournament, with most of the rest of the conference living in the bubble or simply trying to build for future seasons.

Award: The "Eh" Award
This award is awarded to the most "eh" conference, aka the conference that is the most average or generally uninteresting to watch. When asked about how they feel about receiving the award, AAC officials are noted as saying, "Eh, it is what it is."

ACC

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Notre Dame
4. Miami
5. Virginia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech
8. Louisville
9. Wake Forest
10. Florida State
11. Syracuse
12. North Carolina State
13. Clemson
14. Boston College
15. Pittsburgh

The ACC will be competitive as always. The quartet of Duke, UNC, ND, and Miami will be battling it out for the majority of the season. Louisville may have found themselves in the conversation if it was not for the events of recent months.

Award: Battle Royale Award
This prestigious award is given to the conference that will most likely be beating itself up all conference season long. On a teleconference earlier this week where these awards were announced, it was overheard somewhere in ACC HQ that someone was screaming "Peeta!" before a large crashing sound occurred and several arrows were fired.

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Seton Hall
4. Creighton 
5. Providence
6. Saint John's 
7. Marquette
8. Butler
9. Georgetown
10. DePaul

The Big East is set to continue their success in recent years and will remain one of the most entertaining leagues around. Nova is set to win the league again, while teams like Butler and Georgetown will need to take some time to get used to their new coaches.

Award: Cinderella Curator
This is an award that won't become clear until March, but heed my warning: when there's a major conference Cinderella team in the tournament, it will come from the Big East. Fun fact, instead of the normal gift basket or skywritten thank you, the Big East sent over 17 singing mice to the award committee; they did a wonderful rendition of Smooth Criminal.

Big Ten

1. Michigan State
2. Purdue
3. Minnesota
4. Maryland
5. Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Michigan
8. Indiana
9. Wisconsin
10. Penn State
11. Illinois
12. Ohio State
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Michigan State may be the best team in the nation and should run away with the league. While they should win easily, teams 2-10 are anyone's guess. The only thing we know for a fact (other than MSU winning) is that Rutgers will finish last.

Award: Dumb Decision Award
The Big Ten was bestowed this award due to their decision to move their conference tournament up a week and to play two conference games in early December. Soon after the announcement of these awards, the Big Ten made a press release saying that for the month of February, the ice hockey teams will play on soccer fields and the soccer teams will be practicing on the ice.

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. TCU
3. West Virginia
4. Baylor
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas Tech
8. Kansas State
9. Iowa State
10. Oklahoma State

Few things are constant in life; death, taxes, the ability of animal shelter commercials to make people cry, and Kansas winning the Big 12. This is even more amazing considering that the Big 12 has had an insane amount of parity the past few years. Any team is dangerous any night, but this seems like how things will shake out.

Award: Most Likely To Lose To Kansas

This award signifies that once again Kansas will be the champions of the league. The other 9 schools were asked to comment, but Kansas quickly hushed them and ushered them out of the room.

PAC-12

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. USC
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Arizona State
7. Utah
8. Oregon State
9. Colorado
10. Washington 
11. Washington State
12. California

Arizona seems like the best team in the league, with spots 2-4 having a lot more competition. I think Oregon would be a dark horse to win the league, but the fact that they only bring back 19% of the minutes from last year's Final Four team is enough to scare me off.

Award: Kiddie Pool Award
The PAC-12 got this award due to the relative lack of depth in the conference. We here at Head In The Game hear your concerns, but don't worry, we checked; they did wait half an hour before getting in the pool.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Arkansas
6. Vanderbilt
7. Missouri
8. Georgia
9. South Carolina
10. Mississippi State
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Ole Miss
14. LSU

In a classic SEC move, Kentucky and Florida will finish one and two in the league. The more interesting thing to watch in the league is seeing how good Vandy and Mizzou will be.

Award: Help! I'm Trapped In A Swamp
This is not a joke. I am actually trapped in a swamp. Please help, it smells, it smells really bad.

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter. You can follow me on Twitter @T_RoyStory

Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

The NFL Trade Deadline was this past Tuesday, and this year, it was more eventful than usual. Multiple trades had major fantasy implications. Let's take a look at each of them:

The Chicago Bears acquired WR Dontrelle Inman from the L.A. Chargers
The Bears have lost Cameron Meredith, Kevin White and Zach Miller for the season due to injury. Their most-targeted receiver is running back Tarik Cohen. The Chargers have been looking for a suitor for Inman, who had 810 yards and four touchdowns last season, and they found one in injury-depleted Chicago. Due to the Chicago offense's ineffectiveness and reliance on the running game, Inman isn't someone I would seriously consider in fantasy. However, if you need a receiver off the waiver wire (or you play daily fantasy), you could do worse than Inman, who could step in as Chicago's number one receiver.

The Philadelphia Eagles acquired RB Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins made a surprising move by trading their young feature back to Philadelphia. I think this will diminish Ajayi's value in fantasy, since he goes from a more run-oriented offense where he was the workhorse back to a more pass-oriented offense where he will have to fight for carries with LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood. With Ajayi gone, it looks like Kenyan Drake will be the main guy in Miami. In an offense that will probably continue counting on the running game (Jay Cutler and Matt Moore are the quarterbacks), Drake is worth a look.

The Buffalo Bills acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin from the Carolina Panthers
In a Trade Deadline buzzer-beater deal, Carolina traded star red-zone threat Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo. This deal gives Tyrod Taylor a big target to throw to (something he hasn't really had), but this deal might hurt Benjamin's value a little, since the Bills have such a run-heavy offense. Nonetheless, he's still probably going to be Buffalo's number one receiver, so he is still a good fantasy receiver. Over in Carolina, the departure of Benjamin helps Devin Funchess, who immediately becomes Cam Newton's number one receiver. Christian McCaffrey (and other Panther pass-catchers) also should see a boost in production.

The San Francisco 49ers acquired QB Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots
Jimmy G was finally traded, but it was the 49ers (not the Browns) who pulled the trigger. Word is that they will bring him along slowly, so it appears C.J. Beathard will be the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. I would stay away from any 49er quarterback in fantasy this season.


Top Performers of Week 8
QB: Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. HOU)
26-41, 452 yards passing, 4 TD, 1 INT;  4 carries, 30 yards rushing

RB: LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ OAK)
27 carries, 151 yards rushing, 1 TD;  6 catches, 22 yards receiving

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ SEA)
8 catches, 224 yards receiving, 1 TD

TE: Jack Doyle, Colts (@ CIN)
12 catches, 121 yards receiving, 1 TD

D/ST: Baltimore Ravens (vs. MIA)
0 points allowed, 2 INT, 2 TD


Picks

Record
Last Week: 10-2   vs. Spread: 6-6   O/U: 5-7
Season: 66-44   vs. Spread: 49-57-3   O/U: 52-54-1

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Sunday
Ravens 17, Titans 10 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: TEN -3.5  O/U: 43
Buccaneers 14, Saints 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: NO -7  O/U: 52
Rams 20, Giants 10 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: LAR -4.5  O/U: 42
Broncos 13, Eagles 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: PHI -7.5  O/U: 41.5
Falcons 35, Panthers 28 (1:00 PM, FOX)  Line: ATL -2.5  O/U: 42
Bengals 7, Jaguars 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: JAC -6  O/U: 39
Colts 21, Texans 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)  Line: HOU -7  O/U: 45.5
Cardinals 32, 49ers 7 (4:05 PM, FOX)  Line: ARI -2.5  O/U: 39.5
Washington 13, Seahawks 24 (4:05 PM, FOX)  Line: SEA -7.5  O/U: 45
Chiefs 30, Cowboys 28 (4:25 PM, CBS)  Line: DAL -2.5  O/U: 53.5
Raiders 24, Dolphins 17 (8:30 PM, NBC)  Line: OAK -3  O/U: 44
Monday
Lions 38, Packers 23 (8:30 PM, ESPN)  Line: DET -2  O/U: 43.5


Players I Like This Week

Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. KC)
Dak is having another stellar season, totaling 14 touchdowns and four interceptions thus far. He didn't find the endzone last week, but I expect him to score at least once against at home against Kansas City. The Chiefs pass defense the ranks 29th in the NFL (261 yards allowed per game).

Matthew Stafford, Lions (@ GB)
The gun-slinging Lions quarterback, who threw for 423 yards (but zero touchdowns) last week, should have another productive week against a relatively weak Packers defense. Stafford has thrown the ball over 30 times in each of Detroit's game so far this season. 

Jared Goff, Rams (@ NYG)
Goff has been solid in real life, but unspectacular in fantasy due to Los Angeles's run-heavy offense. However, he's an appealing option this week for those in need of a quarterback. The Giants rank 28th in pass defense (259 yards allowed per game), and gave up 334 yards and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson.

Running Back
Lamar Miller, Texans (vs. IND)
With Deshaun Watson out for the season after tearing his ACL in practice this week, Houston will probably lean more on the running game. Miller should be able to find space against Indianapolis, which has the second worst defense in the league (417 total yards allowed per game).

Joe Mixon, Bengals (@ JAX)
Mixon has overtaken the bulk of the running back duties in Cincinnati, and while the Bengals have not run the ball much, they might this week against Jacksonville, which owns the worst rushing defense in the NFL (138.6 yards allowed per game)

Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (vs. OAK)
I'm putting Drake here because he takes over Jay Ajayi's duties in Miami. Drake and Ajayi were the only players to receive carries last week in a blowout loss to Baltimore, so Drake will probably get a lot of the work. The key will be whether the Dolphins fall behind early again and have to abandon the run.

Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant, Cowboys (vs. Chiefs)
Dez was quiet last week, catching four passes for 39 yards. I expect a louder game this week in a big game against the Chiefs. As I said the earlier, Kansas City has third-worst pass defense in the league, so look for Bryant to find some success Sunday afternoon

Devin Funchess, Panthers (vs. ATL)
With Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess immediately becomes Carolina's top receiver and red zone target. Funchess's targets had gone down in recent weeks, but expect production more like he had earlier in the season, when he three touchdowns in two games.

Ryan Grant, Washington (@ SEA)
Jamison Crowder, who caught nine passes for 123 yards last week, has been ruled out this week. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Niles Paul are also out, and free-agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor has been non-existent. That means Grant, who had five catches for 58 yards last week should get some more work.

Tight End
Jack Doyle, Colts (@ HOU)
Doyle has been Jacoby Brissett's favorite target this season, and last week, Doyle had his biggest game thus far, catching 12 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. If it ain't broke, there is no reason to fix it, so expect Brissett to continue looking to Doyle this Sunday.

Vernon Davis, Washington (@ SEA)
It looks like Davis will be Washington's starting tight end this weekend with Jordan Reed and Niles Paul ailing. Davis had two catches for 20 yards last week, and might produce more against a team that gave up 402 yards and four touchdowns to Deshaun Watson last week.

George Kittle, 49ers (@ PHI)
If you're really in need of a tight end this weekend, Kittle is a possible option. The Niners are going to throw passes to someone, especially against the Eagles, who have the 27th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, and leading receiver Pierre Garcon went on IR this week.

Defense
Arizona Cardinals (@ SF)
San Francisco already had the had a bottom-ten offense, and that was before Brian Hoyer was cut and Pierre Garcon was put on IR. C.J. Beathard and San Francisco's ragtag offense don't inspire much confidence. It won't be hard for the Cards to stop the Niners on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams (@ NYG)
Somehow, New York's offense has been worse than San Francisco's (and Cleveland's, believe it or not). The Giants rank 27th in the NFL in total offense (296.4 yards per game), and they face a Rams defense that ranks in the top half of the league.

Tennessee Titans (vs. BAL)
Baltimore's offense has been statistically worse than all of the teams I've talked about so far, ranking 31st in the NFL. Tennessee's defense has been solid, ranking just below the Rams (16th, allowing 329.4 total yards per game).

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Saturday Night


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)