The NFL is finally back. After weeks of training camp and unnecessary practice games, real NFL football is almost here. The season's first kickoff hasn't even been sent into the end zone, and we've already had some wild stories, including an elite quarterback on a Super Bowl contender retiring at the age of 29 (my take: good for him), a team that finished 0-16 two years ago becoming a Super Bowl favorite in Vegas (#YearoftheBrowns), and a star wide receiver getting frostbite from a cryogenic chamber, threatening to retire over a helmet, and posting all of his team fines on Instagram (I'm not getting into that).
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| Who knew that showing up to camp in a hot air balloon wouldn't even be the third-biggest AB story of the preseason? |
The crazy stories won't cease, but now most of them will come from the games being played on the fields. And millions will be watching. Watching to root on their favorite teams. Watching for their fantasy teams and/or betting slips. Or just watching because they love the game. Whatever you're watching, I'm glad you're here.
Week 1 Games
Thursday
Packers @ Bears
(8:20 PM, NBC)
The NFL's 100th season kicks off with its oldest rivalry, and this year's installment should be a good one. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, after a disappointing 2018, enter this season with a new coach (Matt LaFleur), while the Bears, fresh off a devastating playoff loss, have a new kicker (Eddy Pineiro). Both of these teams have postseason aspirations. The Bears may end the season in a better position, but I'm predicting yet another game-winning drive for A-Rodg against Chicago.
Spread: CHI -3 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 21
Sunday
Titans @ Browns
(1:00 PM, CBS)
I am extremely hyped for the 2019 Cleveland Browns season, and I think a lot of other people (fans and non-fans) are also curious to see how this Browns team looks on the field. They get a relatively easy debut game against the mediocre Titans in Cleveland. Against a Tennessee offensive line sans left tackle Taylor Lewan (who is suspended for the first four games), I would be surprised if Myles Garrett and company don't register at least five sacks.
Spread: CLE -5.5 Over/Under: 45.5
Prediction: Browns 28, Titans 17
Ravens @ Dolphins
(1:00 PM, CBS)
The Great Miami Tanking of 2019 has officially begun. Last weekend, the Dolphins sent starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil and starting receiver Kenny Stills to Houston for draft picks. Go ahead, try to name three people who currently play for the Miami Dolphins. The only thing that could (momentarily) derail the tank train is the return of Fitzmagic. I was really tempted to go with the Fitzpatrick-led upset, but I think Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will escape with a win.
Spread: BAL -7 Over/Under: 37.5
Prediction: Ravens 20, Dolphins 16
Falcons @ Vikings
(1:00 PM, FOX)
First, let's pour one out for former Vikings preseason star Kyle Sloter. Both of these teams hovered around the .500 mark last season, and I think they might both be around that this year. Both have solid veteran quarterbacks, elite wide receivers (including Atlanta's Julio Jones), and talented defensive players, but they need to put it together. I'll go with the team that brought back an old friend to kick over the team that traded a fifth round pick for a kicker just to cut that kicker two weeks later.
Spread: MIN -4 Over/Under: 48
Prediction: Falcons 27, Vikings 23
Bills @ Jets
(1:00 PM, CBS)
The two teams most likely to challenge the Patriots in the AFC East (sorry, Miami) square off against each other on the first Sunday of the season. The Jets have a lot of new pieces (would that make them New New York?), including a new head coach (Adam Gase) and running back (Le'Veon Bell). They also hope quarterback Sam Darnold breaks out in his second season after a solid rookie year. The Same goes for Bills quarterback Josh Allen. I'll go with Darnold over Allen in their first meeting.
Spread: NYJ -3 Over/Under: 41
Prediction: Jets 24, Bills 20
Redskins @ Eagles
(1:00 PM, FOX)
15th overall pick Dwayne Haskins' NFL debut will have to wait, as Case Keenum will start at quarterback for Washington Sunday. Playoff legend Nick Foles is no longer with the Eagles, but regular season MVP candidate Carson Wentz is, and Philadelphia is hoping he stays healthy this season. Wentz should start off strong against an inferior opponent, and the Philly defense should be able to suffocate the Washington offense.
Spread: PHI -10 Over/Under: 45.5
Prediction: Eagles 31, Redskins 10
Rams @ Panthers
(1:00 PM, FOX)
The Rams used skill and a little bit of luck to get into the Super Bowl last season, but their luck (and skill) dried up against New England. Now, Jared Goff (who just got a contract extension) and company will try to get back. Cam Newton seems to be healthy, but he doesn't have the pieces around him that Goff has. Both defenses are strong and should give the quarterbacks some problems. L.A. may have the better team, but I'm going with Cam and the Panthers in this matchup.
Spread: LAR -2.5 Over/Under: 50
Prediction: Panthers 27, Rams 24
Chiefs @ Jaguars
(1:00 PM, CBS)
There is no reason to believe the Chiefs won't be one of the most electrifying offenses in the NFL again this season (unless Pat Mahomes forgets to set his alarm every Sunday). There is no reason to believe the Jaguars will. Even with Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles now under center, Jacksonville will rely more on its defense. Unfortunately, there aren't many defenses that can stop Kansas City's offense, no matter how talented.
Spread: KC -3.5 Over/Under: 52
Prediction: Chiefs 32, Jaguars 17
Colts @ Chargers
(4:05 PM, CBS)
Before Andrew Luck shocked the football world by retiring (which, considering his injury history, isn't the most shocking thing that's ever happened), the Colts were bona fide Super Bowl contenders. Now they're bona fide AFC South contenders. Jacoby Brissett isn't awful, but he's no Andrew Luck. He's also no Phillip Rivers. Phillip Rivers has a lot more offspring than Jacoby Brissett. He's also a better quarterback.
Spread: LAC -6.5 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Chargers 27, Colts 20
Bengals @ Seahawks
(4:05 PM, CBS)
The AFC North should be fun to watch this season... aside from the Bengals, who, despite having a new coach (Zac Taylor) for the first time since the Roosevelt Administration, still have Andy Dalton (who's fine, just fine) at quarterback and once again have star receiver A.J. Green on the mend. Meanwhile, the dangerous Seahawks just stole Jadeveon Clowney from the Texans. This one could get ugly.
Spread: SEA -9.5 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Seahawks 35, Bengals 14
Giants @ Cowboys
(4:25 PM, FOX)
Ah, Cowboys-Giants. The rivalry features interestingly uninteresting quarterbacks and arguably the two best running backs in the league. The rivalry does not feature Odell Beckham Jr. anymore, and does not feature 4th overall pick Daniel Jones yet. It will feature Zeke Elliott, who became the highest-paid running back in the NFL this week. No matter how much he plays, the 'Boys should roll the Giants in Dallas.
Spread: DAL -7 Over/Under: 45.5
Prediction: Cowboys 32, Giants 17
Lions @ Cardinals
(4:25 PM, FOX)
The Cardinals, with an exciting new coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and an exciting new quarterback (Kyler Murray), should be entertaining to watch this season. The Lions, on the other hand, may not be very entertaining. Both teams probably won't be very good. This game is tough to gauge, because I don't know how Kingsbury and Murray will look in their first regular season game together. For that reason, I'll go with Kenny Golladay and the Lions to squeak out a victory.
Spread: DET -2.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Prediction: Lions 21, Cardinals 17
49ers @ Buccaneers
(4:25 PM, FOX)
Like with the Cardinals, I have some questions regarding how these two teams will look on Sunday. How will Niners quarterback Jimmy Garropolo look in his return from injury? How will the Tampa Bay offense look in its first regular season game under Bruce Arians? What color will Arians' Kangol hat be? Questions abound. This could go either way. I'll go with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and the host Bucs in a nail-biter.
Spread: EVEN Over/Under: 50.5
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, 49ers 27
Steelers @ Patriots
(8:20 PM, NBC)
The Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown this season (because they are on other teams), but they were kind of without those two last season (Bell for all 16 games, Brown for the last one), so they're still a contender to win the AFC North. Big Ben is still there. JuJu is still there. The defense is still there (with improvements). But, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are still in New England, so the host Patriots will win.
Spread: NE -5.5 Over/Under: 49.5
Prediction: Patriots 32, Steelers 28
Monday
Texans @ Saints
(7:10 PM, ESPN)
Week 1 of the NFL season means a Monday night double-header. We start in New Orleans, where people are still irate about P.I.-gate. While Saints fans are upset about the absence of a penalty flag in last year's NFC Championship, Texans fans are upset about the absence of a General Manager in Houston's front office. New Orleans got off to a slow start in 2018 before kicking it into gear. I don't foresee another slow start in 2019 for Michael Thomas and the Saints.
Spread: NO -7 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Saints 31, Texans 23
Broncos @ Raiders
(10:20 PM, ESPN)
In the nightcap, it's a battle between Vic Fangio's Broncos and Jon Gruden's Raiders. Oakland was this year's team on HBO's Hard Knocks. I didn't watch any of it, but I just wanted to make note of that. Anyway, this could be a defensive struggle. Both signal-callers are underwhelming (Derek Carr and Joe Flacco). I'll go with Gruden's Grinders in this battle.
Note: A previous version of this article incorrectly had Khalil Mack still on the Oakland Raiders, because I am an idiot.
Note: A previous version of this article incorrectly had Khalil Mack still on the Oakland Raiders, because I am an idiot.
Spread: DEN -1 Over/Under: 43.5
Prediction: Raiders 24, Broncos 16
2018 Record: 160-96 vs. Spread: 127-109-9 Over/Under: 117-133-4
Week 1 Picks to Click
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (@ NO)
Looking at the weekly fantasy rankings from the major fantasy sites, there seems to be a consensus that Watson is the number one quarterback for Week 1. That's probably because Watson will be playing behind an upgraded offensive line and will be playing against last season's fourth-worst pass defense. And his running ability is an added bonus.
Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks (vs. CIN)
I really like Chris Carson this year. He plays for one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, and he was effective last season, even while splitting carries with Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis. Penny is still there, but Davis isn't, and Carson should retain the starting job. This week, he faces Cincinnati, which had the fourth-worst rush defense in the NFL last season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers (@ NE)
With Antonio Brown gone, it's JuJu's show in Pittsburgh (it kind of was before AB left, but now it definitely is). He'll be the go-to guy for Big Ben, especially early in the season as rookie wide receiver James Washington gets acclimated. The Steelers will need a big game from JuJu Sunday night in New England, where he should produce against the Patriots' vulnerable pass defense.
Evan Engram, TE, Giants (@ DAL)
Odell Beckham Jr. is in Cleveland. Golden Tate is suspended for the first four games of the season. Sterling Shepard is... there and healthy, but still, there aren't a lot of pass-catching options in New York. With OBJ gone, Engram should be a major focal point in the Giant pass offense this season. He'll be counted on Sunday afternoon in Dallas.
Browns Defense (vs. TEN)
As I noted earlier, starting Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan is suspended for the first four games of the season, so Tennessee will have a depleted line in Cleveland Sunday. You do not want to have a depleted line against the Browns defense, which looked better than the much-heralded Browns offense during the postseason. Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon, and the rest of Steve Wilks' unit should feast on Sunday.
Stats and info via ESPN.com, NFL.com, SBNation.com, BleacherReport.com, YahooSports.com, and OddsShark.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Wednesday evening
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