Thursday, September 12, 2019

College Football 2019: Week 3



Well, there were no coaches coaching from their hospital beds in Week 2. There was, however, a coach coaching from a medical chair, along with multiple upsets (Colorado over Nebraska, USC over Stanford, Cal over Washington), a near-upset (Army vs. Michigan), and many impressive performances (Maryland hanging 63 on Syracuse, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa posting shutouts, and LSU outgunning Texas in Texas). So I'd say the second week (well, technically third, I guess) of college football was an eventful one, hospital bed or no hospital bed.

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Week 3 may not have the high-profile matchups that Week 2 had, but there are still plenty of intriguing games on the slate. Let's dig in.


Game of the Week

#19 Iowa @ Iowa State
(Saturday, 4:00 PM, FS1)

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With no ranked matchups on this week's docket, finding the game of the week wasn't a simple task. I went with where College Gameday will be located this week. The two best schools in Iowa will meet in Ames Saturday afternoon for their annual rivalry game. Both teams come into this game unbeaten (Iowa is 2-0, Iowa State is 1-0). Iowa's two wins have been dominant performances against far inferior opponents. Iowa State's lone victory was a triple-overtime thriller over FCS school Northern Iowa two weeks ago.

Based on their results so far this season, signs point to the Hawkeyes having the upper hand. However, the Cyclones are at home and had an extra week to prepare for their rivals. Plus, it's a rivalry game, so anything can happen (that expression kind of applies to college football in general, as well). Despite the home field advantage and extra preparation, I think Matt Campbell's offense will have trouble with the Iowa defense (which has allowed just 14 total points in two games), while Nate Stanley and the Hawkeye offense will do enough to get the win the a hostile environment.

Spread: IOWA -2.5  Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24


Upset Alert

#24 USC @ BYU
(Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC)

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Once again, it was difficult to find a Top 25 upset I was really confident in. Unlike last week, I did not say, "F--- it", and throw caution to the win. Instead, I went with an upset that is much more likely than someone taking down the number one team in the country.

USC boat-raced Stanford last week behind freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis, who threw for 434 yards and four touchdowns. BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown for 440 yards and one touchdown in two games, one a blowout loss to Utah, the other double-overtime victory over Tennessee. Like with the Iowa-Iowa State game, the early-season results point in a clear direction. But in this case, I'm ignoring the GPS and going in the opposite direction. Slovis played extremely well in his first start last week, but he is still a freshman, and he has to play on the road this week. I'm going with the Cougars in an upset.

Spread: USC -4.5  Over/Under: 56.5

Prediction: BYU 31, USC 28


Unranked Game of the Week

North Carolina @ Wake Forest
(Friday, 6:00 PM, ESPN)

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Believe it or not, this is just one of two Division I-A matchups between 2-0 teams that are both unranked (the other is Kansas State at Mississippi State Saturday). First of all, whose idea was it to have a college football game at 6:00 on a Friday evening? Secondly, I feel for Wake Forest fans who play high school football (or watch high school football). This will be the third straight week the Demon Deacons play on a Friday night. Thirdly, this is apparently a non-conference game between two ACC teams. No, I don't understand.

The Return of the Mack (Brown) has paid dividends for the Tar Heels, who surprised many by beating both South Carolina and Miami. The defense has been strong, as had freshman quarterback Sam Howell. But Wake Forest junior quarterback Jamie Newman has been stronger, throwing for 713 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. I think the host Demon Deacons will use their talented offense and home-field advantage to get by the Tar Heels Friday night.

Spread: WAKE -3  Over/Under: 66

Prediction: Wake Forest 35, North Carolina 28


Other Top 25 Games

Friday

#20 Washington State @ Houston
(9:15 PM, ESPN)

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Defense is overrated. As long as you score more points than the opponent, who cares how many points you give up? Those are words these two teams live by. But Houston takes it too far. The Cougars will put up some points with quarterback D'Eriq King and company, but they won't be able to stop Anthony Gordon and the Cougar offense.

Spread: WSU -9  Over/Under: 73.5

Prediction: Washington State 48, Houston 28


Saturday

Arkansas State @ #3 Georgia
(Noon, ESPN2)

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Since Georgia will definitely win this, let's talk about something else. Who would win between an actual Red Wolf and an actual Bulldog? I think the Bulldog still might win. You don't mess with Bulldogs. Wait, no, I'm thinking Pitbulls. Now I have Pitbull stuck in my head...

Spread: UGA -33  Over/Under: 58

Prediction: Georgia 52, Arkansas State 21


#6 Ohio State @ Indiana
(Noon, FOX)

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After struggling a bit in Week 1, J.K. Dobbins and the Ohio State offense lit up Cincinnati last week, while the defense held the Bearcats to zero points. The Buckeyes may not hold their first Big Ten opponent to zero points, but they should easily win, especially if IU QB Michael Penix can't play (go ahead, make jokes, but "Michael" is actually a very common name).

Spread: OSU -18  Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Indiana 24


Pittsburgh @ #13 Penn State
(Noon, ABC)

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A battle between two teams in the... *Googles* ...Keystone State takes place Saturday when Penn State hosts Pittsburgh. The Panthers have been known to pull of upsets in the past, but it doesn't seem like this Pitt team, which lost to Virginia by 16 and beat Ohio by 10, will be able to upset this Nittany Lion team, which has scored a combined 124 points through two games.

Spread: PSU -17  Over/Under: 52

Prediction: Penn State 42, Pittsburgh 14


#21 Maryland @ Temple
(Noon, CBSSN)

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On a day filled with non-competitive matchups (at least, on paper), this could be an interesting one. Maryland catapulted into the Top 25 after beating Syracuse to a pulp (get it, cause their mascot is an orange) last week. Temple had a week off after stampeding Bucknell (get it, cause they're the Bison). I think the Terrapins will continue their hot start, but the Owls will make it close.

Spread: UMD -7  Over/Under: 66.5

Prediction: Maryland 30, Temple 27


New Mexico @ #7 Notre Dame
(2:30 PM, NBC)

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When a team plays a seemingly easy game the week before a big game, there is often the theory that the team could be overlooking this week's opponent, instead focusing on next week's opponent, and that could lead to an upset. I think it's a valid theory. I think Notre Dame is looking ahead to Georgia. But the Fighting Irish can overlook New Mexico all they want. They'll still win.

Spread: ND -35  Over/Under: 63.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 48, New Mexico 17


#2 Alabama @ South Carolina
(3:30 PM, CBS)

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Will Muschamp's team has a solid running game, but the Gamecocks lost their starting quarterback to season-ending foot injury, and, oh yeah, their playing ALABAMA, which I heard is a decent college football team. Also, the Alabama football team could not beat the Miami Dolphins. Alabama has several pro-caliber players. The Dolphins are a pro team, meaning everybody is pro-caliber.

Spread: ALA -25.5  Over/Under: 62

Prediction: Alabama 49, South Carolina 21


Stanford @ #17 UCF
(3:30 PM, ESPN)

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Central Florida gets a rare challenge this week when it hosts Stanford, which is looking to rebound from a rough loss to USC. Quarterback K.J. Costello is expected to return this week, so that should help the Trees, but the UCF offense, no matter which quarterback they start (Brandon Wimbush or Dillon Gabriel), will be difficult to slow down.

Spread: UCF -9  Over/Under: 62

Prediction: UCF 35, Stanford 28


Arizona State @ #18 Michigan State
(4:00 PM, FOX)

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The Spartans cruised past Western Michigan last week, despite wearing uniforms that look like a discarded idea for an Oregon uniform. Arizona State crawled to a 19-7 win over Sacramento State last Friday night. Not all 2-0 teams are built equal, and this is a prime example. Michigan State should cruise to 3-0 at home Saturday afternoon.

Spread: MSU -14.5  Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction: Michigan State 28, Arizona State 13


Idaho State @ #11 Utah
(4:15 PM)

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I want to talk about the times at which Utah plays. Here are the days and times of the Utes' first four games: Thursday at 10:15 PM, Saturday at 1:00 PM, Saturday at 4:15 PM, Saturday at 9:00 PM. I give them credit for switching things up every week. The result, however, remains the same (a win).

Spread: UTAH -36.5  Over/Under: 64

Prediction: Utah 48, Idaho State 3


Kent State @ #8 Auburn
(7:00 PM, ESPN2)

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Last Saturday, Kent State called off a field hockey game (match?) between Temple and Maine so they could set up for a fireworks show preceding the football game. The match was going into double overtime when it was cancelled. Kent State officials need to sit and think about what they've done. Or they could watch the Golden Flashes play Auburn, which might be a more severe punishment.

Spread: AUB -35.5  Over/Under: 54

Prediction: Auburn 60, Kent State 14


#9 Florida @ Kentucky
(7:00 PM, ESPN)

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After 30 years of misery, Kentucky finally bit Florida back last season. The Gators are a lot better this year, and the Wildcats lost some key contributors. Not only that, but they also lost starting quarterback Terry Wilson to a season-ending injury last week. The Gators will get their revenge.

Spread: FLA -8  Over/Under: 48

Prediction: Florida 31, Kentucky 14


Lamar @ #16 Texas A&M
(7:00 PM, ESPNU)

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I feel bad for this Lamar guy who has to take on the entire Texas A&M football team by himself. But this guy must be pretty good, because he's 2-0 on the season. Unfortunately, he's going to drop to 2-1 Saturday night in College Station.

Spread: TAMU -43.5  Over/Under: 63

Prediction: Texas A&M 52, Lamar 7


#1 Clemson @ Syracuse
(7:30 PM, ABC)

Image result for clemson football vs texas a&m 2019

I expected Clemson to win last weekend, but I wanted an upset to happen. So I took a risk. I rarely take risks, and when I do, they often end up like that. Regardless, The Tigers should smother a Syracuse team coming off a shellacking at the hands (or whatever Turtles have) of Maryland.

Spread: CLEM -28  Over/Under: 65

Prediction: Clemson 44, Syracuse 17


Northwestern State @ #4 LSU
(7:30 PM, SECN)

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LSU went to Austin and knocked off Texas last week behind an impressive offensive appearance. This week, Heisman candidate Joe Burrow and the Tigers return home for a nice little cupcake in Northwestern State, an FCS team that is 0-2.

Spread: LSU -51.5  Over/Under: 68

Prediction: LSU 64, Northwestern State 10


Hawai'i @ #23 Washington
(7:30 PM, PAC-12)

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Washington was shocked by Cal last week, in a game that was still ongoing when I went to bed last Sunday morning (around 4:00 AM). After losing to California, the Huskies can't take 2-0 Hawai'i lightly. I don't think they will. They'll bounce back with a resounding win this Saturday.

Spread: WASH -21.5  Over/Under: 59

Prediction: Washington 52, Hawai'i 28


Florida State @ #25 Virginia
(7:30 PM, ACCN)

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If Florida State had lost to Louisiana-Monroe last week instead of winning in overtime (and if Tennessee didn't exist), the Seminoles would be the most disappointing Power 5 team in college football right now. Virginia probably isn't even that good, but the Cavaliers are better than FSU.

Spread: UVA -7.5  Over/Under: 58

Prediction: Virginia 31, Florida State 21


#5 Oklahoma @ UCLA
(8:00 PM, FOX)

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Speaking of disappointing Power 5 teams, UCLA hosts Oklahoma Saturday night. Remember when Chip Kelly was cool? There was a period of time that existed in this universe where Kelly was viewed as one of the top coaches in all of football. Jalen Hurts will score at least three more touchdowns this week, and the Sooners will win big.

Spread: OU -23.5  Over/Under: 73.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 55, UCLA 21


#12 Texas @ Rice
(8:00 PM, CBSSN)

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Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns played valiantly last week, but ultimately fell to LSU. They can take out their frustration on in-state foe Rice. The Owls have won as many games this season as an actual bowl of rice (zero, just in case somebody thinks that a team of rice bowls has won a football game this year). That fact will continue to be true after Saturday night.

Spread: TEX -32  Over/Under: 56

Prediction: Texas 42, Rice 7


Portland State @ #22 Boise State
(10:15 PM, ESPN2)

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After an epic comeback to beat Florida State in Week 1, Boise State labored to a 14-7 win over Marshall. This Bronco team might not be as good as their ranking suggests, but they are much better than the FCS Portland State Vikings.

Spread: BSU -31.5  Over/Under: 54

Prediction: Boise State 42, Portland State 14


Montana @ #15 Oregon
(10:45 PM, PAC-12)

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Quack, quack.

Spread: ORE -37  Over/Under: 67

Prediction: Oregon 62, Montana 17


Last Week: 17-6  vs. Spread: 10-13  Over/Under: 10-13
Season: 39-10  vs. Spread: 20-28-1  Over/Under: 25-24


Stats and info via ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, BleacherReport.com, SI.com, SportingNews.com, USAToday.com, and Deadspin.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thursday Afternoon














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