College Football 2019: Week 4

Boy, last Saturday was quite a day in college football. It was a day filled with great football, bad football, questionable calls, upsets, and much more. Where shall we begin? Let's get the highest-ranked teams out of the way first. The top eight teams in the AP Poll all won easily over far-inferior teams. Clemson smashed Syracuse on Saturday Night Football, 41-6. Behind Tua's five touchdowns, Alabama beat South Carolina, 47-23, despite a strong effort from South Carolina quarterback Ryan Hilinski in his first start. Ryan is the younger brother of former Washington State quarterback Tyler Hilinski, who took his own life last year (it was later discovered that he had CTE). Georgia blanked Arkansas State, 55-0, but the story of that game was the Bulldog crowd, which honored Wendy Anderson, the wife of Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson, by wearing all pink. Wendy recently died due to breast cancer. LSU rolled to a 65-14 win over Northwestern State, Oklahoma sent UCLA to 0-3 with a 48-14 win, Ohio State impressed in a 51-10 drubbing of Indiana, Notre Dame crushed New Mexico, 66-14, in it's warmup for Georgia, and Auburn smacked Kent State, 66-14. There was no drama at the top last Saturday.

via CNN.com

Now that that's out of the way, let's get to the meat of last week's action. Pittsburgh almost pulled off a shocker at Penn State, but lost due in part to Pat Narduzzi's decision to kick a field goal instead of going for it a few yards short of the end zone down seven in the fourth quarter (the kick doinked off the goal post, by the way). Arizona State shocked Michigan State, but not without controversy. Down 10-7 with a few seconds left, the Spartans thought they had sent the game to overtime with a game-tying field goal, but they were penalized for having 12 men on the field. They then missed the second field goal attempt, but the officials apparently missed a penalty on ASU. Temple shocked Maryland, stopping the Terrapins at the goal line to cap it off. BYU shocked USC (as I foretold), sealing it with an interception. After being delayed for hours due to weather, the rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State didn't disappoint, with Iowa winning after this unfortunate play.

via ESPN.com

To top it all off, Kentucky lost to Florida after a kicker named CHANCE POORE missed a potential go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter (and then the Gators scored a touchdown to go up eight). You can't make this stuff up, folks. This is college football. And I haven't even mentioned last Friday, which featured a game that ended a second too early and a game in which Kansas beat another Power 5 conference team, which hadn't happened since October 4, 2008. Not only did the Jayhawks beat Boston College, they won by 24 points! There is no doubt that there will be some more wild moments in college football this week. That's just college football.

via Ryan Freitas (@ryanchris) on Twitter

Game of the Week

#11 Michigan @ #13 Wisconsin
(Saturday, Noon, FOX)

via buckys5thquarter.com

This is probably the first week you could make an argument for two or three games to be in this spot. I originally had Notre Dame at Georgia here, and some SEC fans would probably argue for the third ranked matchup of the weekend, Auburn at Texas A&M. I settled on Michigan at Wisconsin, because, while it may not be a top ten meeting like ND-UGA, it should be a hotly-contested Big Ten battle between top 15 teams. 

Wisconsin steamrolled South Florida and Central Michigan thanks to an offense that features transfer quarterback Jack Coan (564 yards passing, five touchdowns, zero interceptions) and Heisman trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor (237 yards rushing, five touchdowns), along with a defense that has yet to allow a single point. The Badgers outscored the Bulls and Chippewas 110-0. I think this game will be a bit closer than those ones.

Michigan has not looked great thus far this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. After beating Middle Tennessee by 19 in the season opener, the Wolverines almost lost to Army last week, surviving in overtime. Shea Patterson and the new-look offense has not looked good at all, and now it has to face one of the best defenses in the country. Speaking of strong defenses, Michigan's is still very good, and that's what will keep this game close.

Also, Michigan has a senior long snapper named Camaron CHEESEMAN, who sounds like someone who should be playing for Wisconsin, not against Wisconsin. But not only did he betray his ancestors by not going to the cheesiest state in America, he also betrayed his birth state (Ohio) by going to Michigan. Unbelievable.

With an offense that has not yet shown that it can be trusted, it's hard to pick the Wolverines against a tough defense in a hostile environment. I do think they'll keep it close, but I think the Badgers, who have looked invincible so far this season, will come out with the victory in Madison.

Spread: WIS -3.5  Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 21

Unranked Game of the Week

Kentucky @ Mississippi State

(Saturday, 4:00 PM, SECN)

via aseaofblue.com

There aren't any matchups between unbeaten unranked teams this week, so I'll go with a meeting between two SEC teams that lost close games last week. Despite having a quarterback who can fly, Mississippi State fell just short against Kansas State last week. We've already covered Kentucky, which beat Florida for the first time in eons last season and then went right back to losing this season.

Wildcat quarterback Terry Wilson suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago, so Sawyer Smith got the start against Florida. Smith threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns, but also got picked off three times by the Gators. Freshman running back Kavosiey Smoke (great name) showed that he could turn into the next Benny Snell for Kentucky, running 16 times for 81 yards last week after totaling 18 carries for 190 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games. 

Human helicopter Tommy Stevens struggled against KSU last week, totaling just 100 yards passing while throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. The Bulldogs have leaned on the running game. Junior Kylin Hill has 431 yards rushing through three games. 

Both teams can run the ball, but Kentucky has shown a lot more promise throwing the football, and I think that will be the key to the Wildcats pulling off the road upset, giving Mississippi State its second straight loss to a team named the Wildcats.

Spread: MSU -6  Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 21

Upset Alert

Air Force @ #20 Boise State

(Friday, 9:00 PM, ESPN2)

via againstallenemies.com

After coming back to beat Florida State and struggling to put away Marshall, Boise State cruised to a victory over Portland State. This week brings a tougher test in an Air Force team that is 3-0 and just beat Colorado on the road. The Broncos are probably a better team than the Falcons, and I expect them to finish the season with a better record. But it's college football, so that doesn't mean Boise State will beat Air Force.

Air Force, like its service academy counterparts, employs the triple option, which can be tricky for opposing defenses that never see that type of offense. The Falcons are averaging 356 rushing yards per game, second only to Navy. The Triple Option Factor is the number one reason they are an appealing upset pick. And Air Force has done it before, upsetting conference foe Boise State in 2016.

Unlike Air Force, the Broncos air the ball out a lot. They rank 13th in the nation in passing yards per game. Freshman Hank Bachmeier has thrown for 927 yards through three games. Boise State also has some talent on defense, including Curtis Weaver, whose six sacks are tied for the most in the nation.

A week after Colorado upset Nebraska, Air Force went to Colorado and beat the Buffaloes in overtime. The Falcons could pull off another upset Friday night in Boise, and I think they will.

Spread: BSU -7  Over/Under: 55

Prediction: Air Force 33, Boise State 30

Other Top 25 Games

Friday

#10 Utah @ USC

(9:00 PM, FS1)

via draftwire.usatoday.com

Kedon Slovis had an impressive debut, leading USC to a blowout against Stanford. His second game wasn't quite as impressive, as he threw three picks in an upset loss to BYU. The Trojans return home to play Utah Friday night. Although I think Slovis will play better back in LA Memorial Coliseum, I don't think USC will be able to pull off the upset over Zack Moss and the Utes.

Spread: UTA -4  Over/Under: 52

Prediction: Utah 32, USC 27

Saturday

Southern Mississippi @ #2 Alabama

(Noon, ESPN2)

via thespun.com

I honestly don't know what to say about this game. If you aren't an Alabama fan (or a Southern Mississippi fan), there is no reason to watch this game, especially with more interesting games taking place at the same time. But if you like complete mismatches, this may be for you.

Spread: ALA -38.5  Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction: Alabama 55, Southern Mississippi 14

#4 LSU @ Vanderbilt

(Noon, SECN)

via collegefootballnews.com

LSU is 3-0, which is good. Vandy is 0-2, which is not good. The Tigers are a much better team, so they will beat the Commodores. You won't get this kind of analysis anywhere else.

Spread: LSU -24  Over/Under: 62.5

Prediction: LSU 48, Vanderbilt 17

Tennessee @ #9 Florida

(Noon, ESPN)

via si.com

Florida lost starting quarterback Feleipe Franks for the season last week, but still came back to beat Kentucky behind backup Kyle Trask. Trask will get his first start this week, at home against Tennessee. The Volunteers couldn't stop Georgia State and BYU, so I doubt they can stop Florida.

Spread: FLA -14  Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Florida 38, Tennessee 17

#23 California @ Ole Miss

(Noon, ESPNU)

via theculturetrip.com

Because I didn't know what else to type here, I decided to look up whether Golden Bears are real animals. Apparently, they were real animals, but they're now extinct. I also looked up Golden Gophers, which are not real animals. Unlike Minnesota, Cal decided to honor the memory of an actual animal, which I appreciate. I'll take the Golden Bears to win in Mississippi.

Spread: MIS -2.5  Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction: California 30, Ole Miss 27

Miami (OH) @ #6 Ohio State

(3:30 PM, BTN)

via theringer.com

I would be more interested if the Buckeyes were playing Miami, Florida, but only a bit more interested. Ohio, Florida, Canada, Madagascar, it don't matter, Ohio State by 40.

Spread: OSU -39  Over/Under: 56.5

Prediction: Ohio State 52, Miami (OH) 12

#8 Auburn @ #17 Texas A&M

(3:30 PM, CBS)

via sports.yahoo.com

Both of these teams have given me losses this year. After I boringly predicted Oregon over Auburn in Week 1, the Tigers came back to beat the Ducks. After I boldly predicted Texas A&M over Clemson in Week 2, the Aggies lost to the Tigers. Now that they're playing each other, they could both give me a loss at the same time. I'm going with Kellen Mond and A&M, meaning Auburn will win.

Spread: TAM -3.5  Over/Under: 48

Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 21

#15 UCF @ Pittsburgh

(3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)

via collegefootballnews.com

After blowing a chance to upset in-state rival Penn State last Saturday, Pitt has a chance to upset in-country nonrival Central Florida. By crushing a Power 5 opponent (Stanford) last weekend, the Knights showed that they belong in the College Football Playoff discussion. I don't know if I'd put them in the Playoff (as of right now), but I'd put them in the win column against Pittsburgh.

Spread: UCF -11.5  Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction: UCF 44, Pittsburgh 24

#22 Washington @ BYU

(3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)

via thehuskyhaul.com

What a month it's been for the Brigham Young University football team. After getting smoked in their season opener against Utah, the Cougars "upset" Tennessee in overtime, then upset USC in overtime. Can they make it three in a row? They can, but I don't think they will.

Spread: WAS -6.5  Over/Under: 50.5

Prediction: Washington 30, BYU 24

SMU @ #25 TCU

(3:30 PM, FS1)

via packetpower.com

SMU and TCU, two FBS teams in the NCAA, meet Saturday in Fort Worth, TX, on FS1. TCU is a new addition to the AP Top 25, thanks to a 3-0 start that included an OT win over Cal. SMU is 3-0, but it's not like they play in the SEC or ACC, so I don't think TCU will be sending out an SOS or calling the FBI or... IDK, LOL. WTF.

Spread: TCU -9.5  Over/Under: 55.5

Prediction: TCU 34, SMU 28

#16 Oregon @ Stanford

(7:00 PM, ESPN)

via thefrugalchicken.com

It hasn't been an easy start to the season for the Trees. They started with a win over Northwestern, a solid Big Ten team. Then they had to travel to USC (where they got destroyed) and Central Florida (where they got destroyed). It doesn't get any easier for Stanford this week. This Stanford team just isn't that good, and will probably be destroyed for the third straight week.

Spread: ORE -10.5  Over/Under: 57.5

Prediction: Oregon 37, Stanford 21

Old Dominion @ #21 Virginia

(7:00 PM, ESPN2)

via wikipedia.org

Monarchs vs. Cavaliers sounds more like something from an old English tale than a football game. I am not an expert on either of these entities, but I believe monarchs are more elite than cavaliers. However, monarchs usually have people fight for them. Cavaliers fight for themselves. Therefore, a team full of monarchs probably wouldn't survive against a team full of cavaliers.

Spread: UVA -28.5  Over/Under: 46

Prediction: Virginia 42, Old Dominion 14

Charlotte @ #1 Clemson

(7:30 PM, ACCN)

via ninerswire.usatoday.com

Charlotte's nickname is the 49ers. Too bad it's not the NFL 49ers, because then they could beat Clemson. The college 49ers will not beat Clemson.

Spread: CLM -41.5  Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction: Clemson 55, Charlotte 7

Oklahoma State @ #12 Texas

(7:30 PM, ABC)

via texassports.com

This game is sure to have plenty of points, because, well, look what teams are playing. Oklahoma State has averaged over 49 points through three games, while Texas has averaged over 43 points. I think the Sam Ehlinger and the host Longhorns will outlast the Cowboys.

Spread: TEX -5.5  Over/Under: 73

Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 28

#7 Notre Dame @ #3 Georgia

(8:00 PM, CBS)

via cbssports.com

This is definitely the game of the night this Saturday. The last time these two met (two years ago), Georgia slipped by Notre Dame, 20-19. It might not be that close this time (you literally can't get closer than one point), but it should still be entertaining. I think Georgia, with a stout defense and guys like Jake Fromm and D'Andre Swift, is just more talented than Notre Dame. It will be extremely hard for Ian Book and the Fighting Irish to win in Athens. I don't think they will.

Spread: UGA -14.5  Over/Under: 57.5

Prediction: Georgia 28, Notre Dame 20

Colorado @ #24 Arizona State

(10:00 PM, PAC-12)

via collegefootballnews.com

Herm Edwards' Sun Devils earned a spot in the Top 25 after knocking off Michigan State last week, but I never thought the Spartans were as good as their ranking suggested, and I'm not sure if Arizona State is a top 24 team. The Sun Devil defense has been good, but they haven't scored a lot of points. After falling to Air Force last week, I think Colorado will bounce back and upset ASU.

Spread: ASU -8.5  Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Colorado 24, Arizona State 21

UCLA @ #19 Washington State

(10:30 PM, ESPN)

via foxsports.com

It's a battle of well-known coaches, as Mike Leach faces whatever's left of Chip Kelly. That's all I have for this game. Washington State will roll.

Spread: WSU -18.5  Over/Under: 58

Prediction: Washington State 44, UCLA 17

Last Week: 22-2  vs. Spread: 9-14-1  Over/Under: 15-9

Season: 61-12  vs. Spread: 29-42-2  Over/Under: 40-33

Stats and info via ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, BleacherReport.com, SI.com, Freep.com, CNN.com, FanSided.com, and Twitter.com

Lines via OddsShark.com

Lines as of Thursday afternoon