Thursday, September 27, 2018

College Football Week 5 Preview

It's a monumental week in college football. There are five games between AP Top 25 teams, and two games between top-10 teams. After a weekend that included some upsets (but not the upsets I predicted), it could be another wild week. Let's get into it.

Image result for ohio state penn state
Heisman Trophy candidate Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes visit Happy Valley this Saturday.


Record
Last Week: 16-7  vs. Spread: 12-10-1  Over/Under: 7-15
Season: 55-15  vs. Spread: 27-27-1  Over/Under: 24-30


Thursday

North Carolina @ #16 Miami (8:00 PM, ESPN)

After a disheartening start to the season (a 24-17 loss to Cal and a 41-19 loss to East Carolina), UNC bounced back by beating Pitt last week. Miami has breezed by cupcakes since a first-week loss to LSU. North Carolina is not good, and I don't see the Heels standing much of a chance in Miami

Spread: MIAMI -17  Over/Under: 57

Prediction: Miami 45, North Carolina 14



Saturday

Louisiana-Lafayette @ #1 Alabama (Noon, SEC Network)

Well, not much to see here. The top-ranked Crimson Tide host 1-2 Louisiana-Lafayette. If the Rajin' Cajuns win this game, I will stop doing weekly college football articles, because there would be no point trying to predict college football anymore

Spread: ALA -48.5  O/U: 67

Prediction: Alabama 62, Louisiana-Lafayette 10



Syracuse @ #3 Clemson (Noon, ABC)

In a battle of orange teams (honestly, this might be the most orange college football game I've ever seen), The Clemson Tigers (which are orange) face off against the Syracuse Orange (Syracuse's nickname is literally the color). Trevor Lawrence is the starter at Clemson, and Kelly Bryant is on his way out (he's transferring). Lawrence and company should light up the Orange.

Spread: CLEM -25.5  O/U: 66

Prediction: Clemson 55, Syracuse 17



#12 West Virginia @ #25 Texas Tech (Noon, ESPN2)

The first Top 25 matchup of the weekend comes in the Big 12, where two high-flying offenses squarer off. The Red Raiders shocked Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, but I don't think they'll get past Heisman candidate Will Grier and the Mountaineers.

Spread: WVU -3.5  O/U: 74.5

Prediction: West Virginia 58, Texas Tech 45



Central Michigan @ #21 Michigan State (Noon, FOX Sports 1)

This in-state battle shouldn't be close. Although the Spartans struggled against Utah State and Arizona State before cruising past Indiana, the Chippewas are 1-3, with one of those losses coming to the KANSAS JAYHAWKS (who are the Cleveland Browns of college football). MSU in a rout.

Spread: MSU -28.5  O/U: 46.5

Prediction: Michigan State 45, Central Michigan 14



Tennessee @ #2 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS)

Down south, Tennessee looks to bounce back from a drubbing at the hands of Florida with a drubbing at the hands of Georgia matchup with Georgia. The Bulldogs have scored at least 41 points in each of their three games. I think that 40-plus point streak continues this week.

Spread: UGA -30.5  O/U: 51.5

Prediction: Georgia 48, Tennessee 17



Baylor @ #6 Oklahoma (3:30 PM, ABC)

The Bears of Baylor are better then last year (they've already won more games than all of 2017!), but that doesn't mean they're good. The Sooners, on the other hand, are good, but almost lost to Army last week. I think Kyler Murray and company will bounce back in a game that you don't have to pay (or illegally stream) to watch.

Spread: OKLA -23.5  O/U: 69

Prediction: Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21



Pittsburgh @ #13 UCF (3:30 PM, ESPNU)

The Knights continue their quest to defend their "National Championship" against Pitt. The Panthers lost to North Carolina last week, so I don't like their chances on the road against a team that is scoring 50 point per game.

Spread: UCF -13.5  O/U: 64.5

Prediction: UCF 45, Pittsburgh 24



#18 Texas @ Kansas State (3:30 PM, FS1)

Texas followed up a dominating victory over ranked USC with another dominating performance over TCU. Maybe the Longhorns are finally #back. Whether they are or not, they should be able to beat a Kansas State team that lost to West Virginia by 29 last week.

Spread: TEX -8.5  O/U: 49

Prediction: Texas 35, Kansas State 17



Southern Mississippi @ #10 Auburn (4:00 PM, SECN)

The Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi have the same number of losses as the tenth-ranked Auburn Tigers. Of course, Auburn lost to LSU, while Southern Miss lost to Louisiana-Monroe. The Tigers should roll.

Spread: AUB -26.5  O/U: 53

Prediction: Auburn 62, Southern Mississippi 13



#14 Michigan @ Northwestern (4:30 PM, FOX)

This Big Ten showdown isn't as intriguing as some thought it might be before the season, as the Wildcats are coming off losses to Duke and Akron. The Wolverines demolished Nebraska last week, and I think they'll demolish the other Big Ten N team this week.

Spread: MICH -14.5  O/U: 47

Prediction: Michigan 47, Northwestern 20



Florida @ #23 Mississippi State (6:00 PM, ESPN)

These teams have something in common: they both lost to Kentucky. The Wildcats are the source of the only blemishes between those two teams. Kentucky knocked off Florida a few weeks ago, 27-16. Last week, Kentucky beat Mississippi State, 28-7. Just based off the fact that Florida's score vs. Kentucky looks better (which is not something I should base predictions off of), I'm going with the visiting Gators.

Spread: MSST -7.5  O/U: 50.5

Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 24



Virginia Tech @ #22 Duke (7:00 PM, ESPN2)

Look, I know the 22nd-ranked Blue Devils are unbeaten, and I know Virginia Tech just lost to Old Dominion (by 14 points!). But I still think the Hokies are the better team (even though they'll be without starting quarterback Justin Jackson). Call me crazy... because I am crazy. VT by a field goal.

Spread: DUKE -4.5  O/U: 49.5

Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Duke 20



#4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State (7:30 PM, ABC)

Ah, here we are. Primetime. Two top-10 matchups. The first one takes place in Happy Valley, where the two best teams in the Big Ten battle it out. The last two meeting between these two teams have come down to the wire, so this will probably be another nail-biter. I have yet to see Ohio State's offense struggle, so I'm going with Dwayne Haskins and company (shocking, I know).

Spread: OSU -3.5  O/U: 71

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Penn State 38



#7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC)

Stanford should have lost to Oregon last Saturday night, but somehow came back and won. Now the Cardinal head to South Bend to take on a team with a new quarterback. Ian Book replaced Brandon Wimbush as the Irish roasted Wake Forest last week. They didn't look great in the few games before the QB change. I'm going to go with Stanford in a tough-fought battle (shocking, I know).

Spread: ND -5.5  O/U: 52

Prediction: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 28



South Carolina @ #17 Kentucky (7:30 PM, SECN)

The Wildcats of Kentucky are feeling it right now. I don't know why they aren't ranked. Running back Benny Snell Jr. is a monster (in a good way). He has 540 yards rushing and seven touchdowns through four games. I've finally bought in to Kentucky's football team. I hope they don't let me down.

Spread: UK -1  O/U: 51.5

Prediction: Kentucky 32, South Carolina 24


#20 BYU @ #11 Washington (8:30 PM, FOX)

Hey, another matchup between ranked teams! This game originally scheduled for 7:30 (I think), but now it's 8:30, because people like to mess with me. I don't think this game will be as close as the rankings may suggest. BYU is overrated (nothing against BYU). Plus, Washington is at home.

Spread: WASH -17  O/U: 46

Prediction: Washington 38, BYU 20



Ole Miss @ #5 LSU (9:00 PM, ESPN)

LSU is riding high, and I don't think Ole Miss has the power to bring the Tigers down. If you remember the last time Ole Miss played a ranked team (two weeks ago), the Rebels. got smacked by Alabama, 62-7. LSU isn't 'Bama (nobody is), but LSU is LSU, which is still pretty good.

Spread: LSU -10.5  O/U: 59.5

Prediction: LSU 34, Ole Miss 19



#19 Oregon @ #24 California (10:30 PM, FS1)

This week's installment of #PAC12AfterDark features a team that fumbled away a big win last weekend against a team that might not be as good as the numbers suggest. Cal is 3-0, but the Bears' best win was against BYU, and their wins against the Cougars and UNC were both close. Oregon should be 4-0, but blew a big lead to Stanford last week and lost in overtime. I think Justin Herbert and the Ducks will take a big lead and not relinquish it this Saturday night.

Spread: ORE -1.5  O/U: 58

Prediction: Oregon 40, California 27


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via ESPN.com and OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thursday Afternoon

Fantasy Football/NFL Week 4 Preview





First, I would like to congratulate my favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, on winning a football game for the first time in 635 days. And what a way to do it. I was optimistic heading into the Thursday night showdown with the Jets, but it did not get off to a good start. I'm as big a Tyrod supporter as anyone, but by the middle of the second quarter, I was calling for Baker Mayfield. Down 14-0 late in the second quarter, Baker came in for an injured Taylor and breathed new life into the Cleveland offense. He (and the Browns defense) mounted a comeback that culminated in a 21-17 win in Cleveland.


I kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. As a Browns fan, I expect something catastrophic to happen, no matter how much it looks like the Browns will pull it out. It was a surreal experience when the other shoe didn't drop, and the Cleveland Browns won a football. I didn't yell or scream when they won, but it did feel like a really special moment. I've watched highlights of that game numerous times since last Thursday night, and I may watch highlights a few more times before Sunday. I really feel like the Browns have finally turned a corner, and I really feel like the Browns have finally found a franchise quarterback. We shall see.

Image result for baker mayfield photo after two point conversion
Baker may be the franchise QB us long-suffering Browns fans have been waiting for.

Secondly, I'm trying something new this week. Instead of giving some players I like this week, I have attempted to rank my top 20 quarterbacks, top 30 running backs, top 30 wide receivers, top 20 tight ends, top 10 defenses, and top 10 kickers this week. These are just rankings I came up with by looking at some expert rankings from sites such as ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports and looking at what the players have done so far and who they are playing. I am by no means a "fantasy football expert", so follow these rankings at your own risk. I've also added some notes about some players. Hopefully this is a better way to assist you in making lineup decisions.



Quarterback

1. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs (@ DEN) - Patty Mahomes has set the NFL on fire the first three weeks, throwing for 896 yards and 13 touchdowns. He's at the top until someone shows me a reason he shouldn't be.

2. Drew Brees, Saints (@ NYG)

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (vs. BUF)

4. Phillip Rivers, Chargers (vs. SF)

5. Deshaun Watson, Texans (@ IND)

6. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs. MIA) - Touchdown Tommy has not gotten off to a rousing start in fantasy this season. I think he'll put up better numbers this week, but I still don't expect a top-five performance.

7. Matt Ryan, Falcons (vs. CIN)

8. Andy Dalton, Bengals (@ ATL)

9. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (@ LAR) - Captain Kirk (and the entire Viking team) had a bizarrely bad day against Buffalo last Sunday. Although they're playing the best team in the league this week, Aqib Talib is out, and I think Minnesota will play more like normal.

10. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (@ ARI)

11. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs. BAL)

12. Matthew Stafford, Lions (vs. DAL)

13. Andrew Luck, Colts (vs. HOU)

14. Carson Wentz, Eagles (@ TEN) - Wentz returned from his serious knee injury last week. His numbers (255 yards, 1 touchdowns) were decent considering his long absence, but not strong fantasy numbers. I'll wait a few more weeks before putting him back in the fantasy elite at quarterback.

15. Baker Mayfield, Browns (@ OAK) - As I have established, I'm on the Baker Bandwagon. He showed poise, accuracy and a quick release against the Jets. He may be a rookie on the road making his first start, but it's against the win-less (and pass rush-less) Raiders.

16. Jared Goff, Rams (vs. MIN)

17. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins, (@ NE)

18. Case Keenum Broncos (vs. KC) - As far as matchups go, Keenum has the best this week. Kansas City has by far the worst defense in the league (474 yards allowed per game, over 40 yards more than the next closest team). He's a sleeper option in fantasy this week.

19. Eli Manning, Giants (vs. NO)

20. Joe Flacco, Ravens (@ PIT)


Running Back

1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs. DET) - Although Zeke made some crucial mistakes last week, he did run for 127 yards. This week, he faces the worst rush defense in the NFL.

2. Alvin Kamara, Saints (@ NYG) - Kamara should continue to put up elite fantasy numbers, but the return of Mark Ingram could cut into his workload a bit. Hence the drop to number two.

3. Todd Gurley II, Rams (vs. MIN)

4. Melvin Gordon, Chargers (vs. SF)

5. Saquon Barkley, Giants (vs. NO)

6. James Connor, Steelers (vs. BAL)

7. David Johnson, Cardinals (vs. SEA) - DJ has had a quiet start to the season, as has the entire Arizona offense. With a new quarterback and a matchup against Seattle's 30th-ranked rush defense, this could be the week he gets it going.

8. Jordan Howard, Bears (vs. TB)

9. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (@ DEN)

10. Giovani Bernard, Bengals (@ ATL) - Gio remains Cincinnati's feature back with Joe Mixon out. The Falcons have let Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara run rampant the last two weeks, which bodes well for the versatile Bernard.

11. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (vs. NYJ)

12. Carlos Hyde, Browns (@ OAK)

13. Lamar Miller, Texans (@ IND)

14. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders (vs. CLE)

15. Chris Carson, Seahawks (@ ARI)

16. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (@ NE)

17. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (vs. CIN) - After missing last week's game, Freeman is questionable for Sunday. If he doesn't play, Tevin Coleman becomes a top-15 running back option.

18. Alex Collins, Ravens (@ PIT)

19. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (vs. KC)

20. James White, Patriots (vs. MIA)

21. LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ GB) Shady says he's going to play against Green Bay despite battling injury. That doesn't, however, mean that he will play especially well.

22. Dion Lewis, Titans (vs. PHI)

23. Kerryon Johnson, Lions (vs. DAL) - Kerryon broke Detroit's long skid of games without a 100-yard rusher, but I want to see him do it a few more times before trusting him in fantasy.

24. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (vs. CIN)

25. Matt Breida, 49ers (@ LAC) - The NFL's leading rusher will be negatively affected by Jimmy G's torn ACL, as defenses will load the box more often with the much less harmful C.J. Beathard under center.

25. Jay Ajayi, Eagles (@ TEN)

26. Isaiah Crowell, Jets (@ JAX) - The Crow ran for two touchdowns last week against his former team. Don't expect him to replicate that performance against the NFL's fourth-ranked defense.

27. Royce Freeman, Broncos (vs. KC)

28. Sony Michel, Patriots (vs. MIA)

29. Javorious Allen, Ravens (@ PIT) - Buck Allen doesn't get a whole lot of touches, but he sometimes maximizes the touches he does get, keeping him fantasy-relevant.

30. Derrick Henry, Titans (vs. PHI)


Wide Receiver

1. Michael Thomas, Saints (@ NYG) - Thomas has quickly become the best wideout in the NFL. He's currently on pace to break the NFL record for receptions in a season.

2. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (vs. NO)

3. Antonio Brown, Steelers (vs. BAL)

4. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ IND)

5. Julio Jones, Falcons (vs. CIN)

6. Keenan Allen, Chargers (vs. SF)

7. A.J. Green, Bengals (@ ATL)

8. Adam Thielen, Vikings (@ LAR) - Thielen has gone over 100 yards in each of the first three games. A matchup against a Ram defense sans Aqib Talib could set him up for another one.

9. Jarvis Landry, Browns (@ OAK) - Everybody in the Cleveland offense should benefit from the change to Baker Mayfield at quarterback, especially Landry, who had 103 yards last week.

10. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ CHI)

11. Davante Adams, Packers (vs. BUF)

12. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (@ DEN)

13. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (vs. BAL) - JuJu has been Pittsburgh's leading receiver so far, going over 100 yards in each of the first three games. He's on his way to being an elite fantasy receiver.

14. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (vs. KC)

15. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (vs. HOU)

16. Brandin Cooks, Rams (vs. MIN)

17. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (@ LAR)

18. Golden Tate, Lions (@ DAL)

19. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (vs. KC) - Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should find plenty of room against the weak Kansas City secondary. Both are solid plays this week.

20. Allen Robinson, Bears (vs. TB)

21. Will Fuller V, Texans (@ IND) - Will Fuller has gone over 100 yards in each of the two games he has played, and he's been targeted heavily. his ranking in fantasy may continue to rise.

22. Robert Woods, Rams (vs. MIN)

23. Kenny Golladay, Lions (@ DAL)

24. John Brown, Ravens (@ PIT) - Baltimore's leading receiver is a sleeper candidate at the position in fantasy. He has 222 yards and two touchdowns through three games.

25. Cooper Kupp, Rams (vs. MIN)

26. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (@ ARI)

27. Marvin Jones Jr., Lions (@ DAL)

28. Sterling Shepherd, Giants (vs. NO) - With Evan Engram out, Shepherd will see more targets, and he should be able to do something with those targets against the porous Saints defense.

29. Amari Cooper, Raiders (vs. CLE)

30. Calvin Ridley, Falcons (vs. CIN) - The rookie had a HUGE day last Sunday, going for 146 yards and three touchdowns a week after scoring his first touchdown. He will come back down to the earth, but he has become an integral part of the Atlanta offense.



Tight End

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (@ DEN) - Kelce, who was already a top-five tight end, has benefited from the emergence of Pat Mahomes. After a quiet Week 1, Kelce has had over 100 yards in each of the last two games.

2. Zach Ertz, Eagles (@ TEN)

3. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs. MIA)


4. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (@ LAR)

5. Jimmy Graham, Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Trey Burton, Bears (vs. TB)

7. George Kittle, 49ers (@ LAC) - Kittle may not see much of a decline in production with the quarterback change. When Beathard was quarterback last year, Kittle was his favorite target.

8. Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. CLE)

9. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (@ CHI)

10. Jack Doyle, Colts (vs. HOU) - Both Doyle and fellow Colts tight end Eric Ebron are questionable for this week, so it may be best to just stay away from Indy tight ends.

12. Tyler Eifert, Bengals (@ ATL)

13. David Njoku, Browns (@ OAK) - Hailed by many as a breakout candidate at the beginning of the season, Njoku has been quiet. Will the change to Baker Mayfield help him? We'll see.

14. Eric Ebron, Colts (vs. HOU)

15. Benjamin Watson, Saints (@ NYG)

16. Austin Hooper, Falcons (vs. CIN)

17. Vance McDonald, Steelers (vs. BAL) - McDonald had a big night on Monday, helped mainly by a long touchdown in which he stiff-armed Chris Conte onto IR. I wouldn't expect many nights like that from him.

18. Will Dissly, Seahaws (@ ARI)

19. Dallas Goedert, Eagles (@ IND)

20. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars (vs. NYJ) - If nothing else, there is the storyline that ASJ is playing his former team. It's something.


Defense/Special Teams

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NYJ)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. SF)

3. Chicago Bears (vs. TB)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (@ TEN)

5. Green Bay Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Seattle Seahawks (@ ARI)

7. Cleveland Browns (@ OAK)

8. Los Angeles Rams (vs. MIN)

9. Houston Texans (@ IND)

10. New York Jets (@ JAX)


Kicker

1. Justin Tucker, Ravens (@ PIT)

2. Will Lutz, Saints (@ NYG)

3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs. MIA)

4. Harrison Butker, Chiefs (@ DEN)

5. Mason Crosby, Packers (vs. BUF)

6. Matt Bryant, Falcons (vs. CIN)

7. Sam Ficken, Rams (vs. MIN)

8. Ryan Succop, Titans (vs. PHI)

9. Matt Prater, Lions (@ DAL)


10. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (vs. HOU)


Record
Last Week: 9-7  vs. Spread: 8-8  Over/Under: 8-8
Season: 26-22  vs. Spread: 22-25-1  Over/Under: 21-26

(Home Team Listed Last)

Thursday

Vikings 31, Rams 28 (8:20 PM, FOX/NFL Network)

Spread: LAR -7  Over/Under: 48


Sunday

Bengals 23, Falcons 32 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: ATL -5.5  O/U: 51.5


Buccaneers 17, Bears 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CHI -3  O/U: 46.5


Lions 28, Cowboys 32 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: DAL -3  O/U: 44


Bills 14, Packers 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: GB -10  O/U: 45


Eagles 24, Titans 10 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: PHI -4  O/U: 41


Texans 30, Colts 27 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: IND -1  O/U: 47.5


Dolphins 16, Patriots 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: NE -6.5  O/U: 48.5


Jets 10, Jaguars 17 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: JAX -7.5  O/U: 38.5


Seahawks 21, Cardinals 14 (4:05 PM, FOX)

Spread: SEA -3  O/U: 39


Browns 28, Raiders 17 (4:05 PM, FOX)

Spread: OAK -2.5  O/U: 44.5


Saints 35, Giants 23 (4:25 PM, CBS)

Spread: NO -3.5  O/U: 50.5


49ers 13, Chargers 24 (4:25 PM, CBS)

Spread: LAC -10  O/U: 46.5


Ravens 27, Steelers 24 (8:20 PM, NBC)

Spread: PIT -3  O/U: 50.5


Monday

Chiefs 28, Broncos 31 (8:15 PM, ESPN)

Spread: KC -4.5  O/U: 55


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via ESPN.com
Lines as of Thursday Afternoon



Saturday, September 22, 2018

College Football Week 4 Preview

Sorry there was no college football preview last week. I had a death in the family, and the funeral was last weekend. It was an exciting weekend of college football, and I'm disappointed I wasn't able to provide a preview for it (I'll say this, I would've picked Ohio State to cover against TCU, but did not see BYU over Wisconsin coming). I am back for Week 4, however.


Record
Week 2: 22-1  vs. Spread: 7-8  Over/Under: 7-8
Overall: 39-8  vs. Spread: 15-17  Over/Under: 17-15


Friday

Florida Atlantic @ #16 UCF (7:00 PM, ESPN)

The defending National Champions Central Florida did not play last week due to inclement weather, but the Knights are back in action on Friday night this week. FAU bounced back last week after getting smashed by Oklahoma, but UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton will bounce back this week after he threw one touchdown and three interceptions against South Carolina State. Like that game, this should end in a rout.

Spread: UCF -13.5  Over/Under: 74.5

Prediction: UCF 52, Florida Atlantic 24



#10 Penn State @ Illinois (9:00 PM, FOX Sports 1)

After almost suffering a monumental upset to App State to start the season, the Nittany Lions responded by blowing out Pitt and Kent State. Illinois will look to respond after losing to South Florida last week. The Illini will not respond the way Penn State did. The Lions will roll to a third straight rout.

Spread: PSU -27  O/U: 61

Prediction: Penn State 48, Illinois 10



Saturday

#2 Georgia @ Missouri (Noon, ESPN)

The second-ranked Bulldogs mus'n't overlook Mizzou. Tiger quarterback Drew Lock ranks sixth in the FBS in passing yards through three games (1062), and fifth in touchdown passes (11). But he'll have to traverse a Bulldog defense that ranks seventh in total yards allowed per game (259) and second in points allowed per game (8.0). The host Tigers will not pull of the upset this Saturday.

Spread: UGA -14  O/U: 64.5

Prediction: Georgia 38, Missouri 21



#8 Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (Noon, ABC)

The eighth-ranked Irish have looked shaky since beating Michigan three weeks ago, only beating Ball State and Vanderbilt by one possession each. Wake Forest may be better than those teams, but not exponentially better. The 2-1 Demon Deacons rank 15th in total offense (542 yards per game), but rank 108th in total defense (457 yards allowed per game). Wake could pull up the upset at home, but I'll go with the Fighting Irish.

Spread: ND -6.5  O/U: 59

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Wake Forest 21



Nebraska @ #19 Michigan (Noon, FOX Sports 1)

Speaking of teams that have looked shaky, Michigan hosts Nebraska in a Big Ten battle in the Big House. The Wolverines could not get it going against Notre Dame, and they haven't been tested in the two weeks since. The Cornhuskers are still seeking their first win under Scott Frost, and they reached a low point with a home loss to Troy last week. I don't think Nebraska will test Michigan too much.

Spread: MICH -19  O/U: 49.5

Prediction: Michigan 40, Nebraska 17



#23 Boston College @ Purdue (Noon, ESPN2)

Speaking of Big Ten teams still seeking their first win, the Boilermakers of Purdue are hoping to get their first victory of the season against the rising B.C. Eagles. Boston College entered the AP Top 25 rankings after a win on the road against Wake Forest last week, and I think the Eagles will stay there after sending Purdue to 0-4.

Spread: BC -7  O/U: 63

Prediction: Boston College 37, Purdue 20



#22 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama (3:30 PM, CBS)

This SEC showdown could be the game of the weekend (or it could be a 'Bama blowout). If you remember (I didn't, so I had to look it up), Kellen Mond and the Aggies almost knocked off the Tide last season. A&M also came extremely close to upsetting Clemson two weeks ago (I didn't remember that either). Mond and company will put up a fight, but I don't think the Crimson Tide are losing until they travel to Baton Rouge (foreshadowing!).

Spread: ALA 26.5  O/U: 59.5

Prediction: Alabama 31, Texas A&M 28



#3 Clemson @ Georgia Tech (3:30 PM, ABC)

The fightin' Tigers of Clemson travel to Atlanta to battle the runnin' Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech on Saturday. GT (hey, my initials!) is 1-2 after successive losses to South Florida and Pittsburgh. I don't care if Georgia Tech runs the triple option, quadruple option, or quintuple option, I don't see the host Jackets upsetting the Tigers.

Spread: CLEM -16  O/U: 54

Prediction: Clemson 52, Georgia Tech 24



Tulane @ #4 Ohio State (3:30 PM, Big Ten Network)

Urban Meyer is back from his three-game suspension, but Meyer or no Meyer, Ohio State looked quite impressive through the first three weeks, especially last Saturday night in Texas. Other than Urban's return (and the absence of Nick Bosa), there not many interesting things about this matchup. 1-2 Tulane doesn't stand a chance.

Spread: OSU -37  O/U: 68

Prediction: Ohio State 63, Tulane 24



Kansas State @ #12 West Virginia (3:30 PM, ESPN)

West Virginia knows it could have a tough battle with Kansas State (last season, the Wildcats lost to the Mountaineers by five, a week before upsetting Oklahoma State), but this Kansas State team got thumped by Mississippi State just two weeks ago, and barely beat South Dakota (South Dakota!) the first week of the season. I think Will Grier and company will roll.

Spread: WVU -15.5  O/U: 60.5

Prediction: West Virginia 39, Kansas State 22



#13 Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (3:30 PM, CBSSN)

Pass.

...Okay, okay, I will provide some kind of insight here. The Hokies are 2-0. Neither game was particularly close. The Monarchs (the first thing I think when I see this team nickname is butterflies, not royalty) are 0-3. Those losses came against perennial National Championship contenders Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. The Hokies will destroy the Monarchs.

Spread: VT -27.5  O/U: 52.5

Prediction: Virginia Tech 32, Old Dominion 3



Florida International @ #21 Miami (3:30 PM, ESPN2)

After the first-week loss to LSU, Miami has demolished Savannah State and Toledo. Apparently, the first meeting between these two teams (in 2006) featured an ugly brawl that included 13 ejections and 31 suspensions (I don't know these things, I'm just getting this info from the Internet). That is the only interesting thing about this matchup. I think the 'Canes will cruise (but not cover).

Spread: MIA -26  O/U: 56.5

Prediction: Miami 40, Florida International 17



#17 TCU @ Texas (4:30 PM, FOX)

Both of these Texan teams are coming off of challenging games against good opponents. While the Horned Frogs fell short against fourth-ranked Ohio State last Saturday night, the Longhorns dominated 22nd-ranked USC. Tom Herman's squad could give TCU a scare, but I don't think Gary Patterson and the Frogs will lose for a second straight week.

Spread: TCU -2.5  O/U: 48.5

Prediction: TCU 32, Texas 21



McNeese @ #25 BYU (6:00 PM, ESPN3)

Ah, finally! We have now reached the meat of this weekend's slate. Oh... wait... no, no, I was gravely mistaken. I apologize. Fresh off a stunner over Wisconsin last week, Bringham Young University (it's important that we know what the acronyms stand for) hosts the McNeese Cowboys. The FCS school is 3-0, but it's also an FCS school. I'll go with the Cougars.

Spread: BYU -24.5

Prediction: BYU 35, McNeese 14



Army @ #5 Oklahoma (7:00 PM)

Bear with me through this underwhelming part of the schedule. Apparently, the only way you can watch this game is via pay-per-view. I have immense respect for the troops, but I'm not paying to watch their triple-option offense try to keep up with Kyler Murray and the Sooners. Oklahoma will spring into conference play on a high note.

Spread: OKLA -30  O/U: 59

Prediction: Oklahoma 55, Army 20



Louisiana Tech @ #6 LSU (7:00 PM, ESPNU)

Ohio State fans' adopted second team (because of former Buckeye quarterback/current Tiger quarterback Joe Burrow) hosts in-state "rival" La Tech in a battle between the state school and the tech school. The state school has looked quite impressive, beating two ranked teams in the first three weeks. In this duel between top-30 defenses, the 29th-ranked defense (LSU) should have no problem beating the 20th-ranked defense (Louisiana Tech).

Spread: LSU -19.5  O/U: 51

Prediction: LSU 34, Louisiana Tech 10



#14 Mississippi State @ Kentucky (7:00 PM, ESPN2)

Kentucky is probably still on Cloud 9 after beating rival Florida for the first time in over three decades, but a meeting with Mississippi State might bring the Wildcats back down to earth. These two teams favor running to passing the ball, so this will be a battle in the trenches. I think the Bulldogs will out-run the Wildcats.

Spread: MSST -9.5  O/U: 56

Prediction: Mississippi State 28, Kentucky 17



Texas Tech @ #15 Oklahoma State (7:00 PM, FS1)

Points, points, points. Those are the three words I would use to describe this Big 12 matchup. The 2-1 Red Raiders rank first in the FBS in total offense (624 yards per game), while the 3-0 Cowboys rank sixth (590 yards per game). The gap between these two teams comes on the other side of the ball. Texas Tech ranks 105th in the nation in total defense (454 yards allowed per game). Oklahoma State ranks 17th (296 yards allowed per game).

Spread: OKST -14.5  O/U: 77.5

Prediction: Oklahoma State 58, Texas Tech 42



Arkansas @ #9 Auburn (7:30 PM, SEC Network)

This is a stark contrast to Texas Tech-Oklahoma State, as the defensive-minded Auburn Tigers host the... bad Arkansas Razorbacks. Auburn suffered a last-second loss to LSU last week, so the Tigers can take their anger out on the 1-2 Razorbacks, who got blown out by North Texas last week.

Spread: AUB -30  O/U: 57.5

Prediction: Auburn 60, Arkansas 7



#24 Michigan State @ Indiana (7:30 PM, BTN)

I smell an upset here. The 1-1 Spartans have not looked good, losing to Arizona State and almost losing to Utah State. The 3-0 Hoosiers have (relatively) easily dispatched of FIU, Virginia and Ball State. No, those aren't especially strong teams, but the host Hoosiers have been known to play superior conference opponents tough, and the Spartans have been very shaky this season.

Spread: MSU 4.5  O/U: 50.5

Prediction: Indiana 35, Michigan State 28



#7 Stanford @ #20 Oregon (8:00 PM, ABC)

Our second (and final) battle of ranked teams comes out west, where the ground-'n-pound Cardinal face off against the high-flying Ducks. Oregon's highly-ranked run defense will be tested against NFL running back prospect Bryce Love, but the Stanford defense will be tested against NFL quarterback prospect Justin Herbert. I'm going with Herbert and the host Ducks.

Spread: STAN -2.5  O/U: 57.5

Prediction: Oregon 32, Stanford 30



#18 Wisconsin @ Iowa (8:30 PM, FOX)

We get a late-night Big Ten battle this weekend, as Wisky will look to bounce back after getting upset by BYU. The Badgers visit unbeaten Iowa. Wisconsin will be tested in Iowa against the Hawkeye defense (209 yards allowed per game, 2nd in the country), but I think Jonathan Taylor, Alex Hornibrook and company will escape with a win.

Spread: WIS -3  O/U: 42.5

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20



Arizona State @ #10 Washington (10:30 PM, ESPN)

Per usual, we end the night with some #PAC12AfterDark. Washington lost its first game of the season to Auburn, while Arizona State lost last week to San Diego State. Herm Edwards' squad will battle, but I think Myles Gaskin and the Huskies will take this one.

Spread: WASH -18  O/U: 52

Prediction: Washington 45, Arizona State 38


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via Various Sites

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Fantasy Football/NFL Week 3 Preview



Kickers, man. The football equivalent of a relief pitcher is unlike any other position on the football field. While many may think kickers have the easiest job (they just have to kick a ball!), they actually have the most fragile job. A couple missed kicks and a kicker could be out of a job. They also have a job that puts a lot of pressure on them. They often come in to kick in potential game-tying or game-winning situation, and a missed kick could be the difference between a win and a loss. As Pat McAfee would say, this past Sunday was not a good day "for the Brand". 19 kicks were missed. Browns kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two field goals and two extra points, and Cleveland lost by three in New Orleans. The Browns could be 2-0 with a competent kicker. Instead, they are 0-1-1 and let Gonzalez go on Monday in favor of undrafted free agent Greg Joseph. Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson also struggled Sunday, missing a field goal in overtime that would have given Minnesota a victory over arch-rival Green Bay (instead, the two teams tied). Instead, he too was out of a job Monday, in favor of former Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey. Even the best team in the NFL (the Los Angeles Rams) had some kicking troubles on Sunday. Greg ("the Leg) Zuerlein suffered a groin injury, so the Rams didn't have a kicker the entire game. They ended up going for two after every  touchdown, and even had punter Johnny Hekker kick a 19-yard field goal (he made it, and the Rams won easily). People sometimes take kickers for granted. Sunday showed that kickers should never be taken for granted, and that a good kicker is harder to come by than some may think.

Image result for zane gonzalez
Zane Gonzalez is out of a job after a rough Week 2 (Photo via DailySnark.com)


Week 3 Fantasy Picks to Click

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers (vs. PIT)

The "Fitz-magic" will run out at some point, but I don't think it will this week. The Pittsburgh defense gave up 326 yards and six touchdowns to Pat Mahomes last Sunday. No, Fitzpatrick isn't as talented as Patty Mahomes, but he has played about as well thus far.


Matt Ryan, Falcons (vs. NO)

Matty Ice hasn't had a rousing start to the season, but a meeting with the Saints has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Remember, this is a defense that got torn up by Ryan Fitzpatrick two weeks ago (to the tune of 417 yards and four touchdowns).


Jimmy Garroppolo, 49ers (@ KC)

The 2-0 Chiefs have had the most prolific offense in the NFL so far this season, but they've also given up the most points. After giving up 424 yards and three touchdowns to Phillip Rivers in Week 1, Kansas City heeded 452 yards and three scores to Big Ben. The Niners may not win, but Jimmy G could have some big numbers.


Running Back

James Connor, Steelers (@ TB)

At this point, you should probably be starting Connor every week (until Le'Veon Bell comes back). Connor had 192 total yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland, then had 65 total yards and a touchdown against Kansas City. J.C. is getting a lot of opportunity in Pittsburgh.


Tevin Coleman, Falcons (vs. NO)

With starting running back Devonta Freeman out due to a knee injury, Coleman had 16 carries for 107 yards (plus four catches for 18 yards) in last week's win over Carolina. It looks like Freeman will be out again this week, which means an opportunity for another big game for Coleman.


Giovani Bernard, Bengals (@ CAR)

Speaking of backup running backs getting opportunity, Gio Bernard will be Cincy's feature back after Joe Mixon had a procedure that will have him out at least a couple weeks. The Panthers gave up 107 yards rushing to the aforementioned Tevin Coleman, so Gio could be in for a good game.


Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry, Browns (vs. NYJ)

Landry is questionable for the Thursday night games, but he is expected to play. With Josh Gordon gone, Landry is now the clear top target in Cleveland. Although the Browns may continue to play ultra-conservative offensively, Landry should still be heavily targeted.


DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers (vs. PIT)

D-Jax has found the fountain of youth playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 32-year-old has 275 yards and three touchdowns through two games, and as long as the Fitz-magic continues, I think the DeSean Jackson magic will continue. I've already discussed Pittsburgh's defense.


Keelan Cole, Jaguars (vs. TEN)

With Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson gone, Keelan Cole has become Jacksonville's number one receiver. He had a breakout game last week (seven catches, 117 yards, a touchdown) that included an insane one-handed catch. It looks like Cole could be on his way to a breakout season.


Tight End

George Kittle, 49ers (@ KC)

With Jimmy G in a favorable position against a porous Kansas City defense, that means his pass catchers are in a favorable position as well. Although Kittle had just two catches for 22 yards in last week's win over Detroit, but he had five catches for 90 yards the week before. He should find a lot of room on Sunday in Kansas City.


O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (vs. PIT)

This could be a breakout year for the second-year pro out of Alabama. Howard had 96 yards and a touchdown last week against Philly, and this week he faces a Pittsburgh defense that couldn't stop Kansas City. As long as the Fitz-magic continues, O.J. should reap the benefits.


Will Dissly, Seahawks (vs. DAL)

The rookie out of Washington has burst onto the scene, scoring a touchdown in each of his first two games. The fourth-rounder has built a report with Russell Wilson, catching three passes for 105 yards in Week 1 and three passes for 42 yards last week. He could make it a third straight game with a score on Sunday.


Defense

Cleveland Browns (vs. NYJ)

The Browns defense leads the lead in takeaways, and is the main reason they have been in a position to win in each of their first two games. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown three touchdowns through the first three games, but he has also thrown three interceptions. This opportunistic Cleveland defense could feast on the rookie Thursday night in the Dawg Pound.


Dallas Cowboys (@ SEA)

If you haven't heard, Seattle's offensive line is... what's the word... BAD. They've given up a league-high 12 sacks through two games, and that's with escape artist Russell Wilson at quarterback. Russ has also made some costly errors, throwing three picks and fumbling the ball four times. Dallas has the pass-rushers to give the Seahawks fits.


Miami Dolphins (vs. OAK)

The return of Jon Gruden has gotten off to a rocky start, as the Raiders are 0-2. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise, starting 2-0. The 'Fins have been one of the better defenses in the league through two weeks, and I think that continues this week.


Week 3 Game Picks

Record
Last Week: 9-7  vs. Spread: 7-9  Over/Under: 7-8
Season: 17-15  vs. Spread: 14-17-1  Over/Under: 13-18

(Home Teams Listed Last)

Thursday

Jets 17, Browns 24 (8:20 PM, NFL Network)

Spread: CLE -3  Over/Under: 41


Saints 32, Falcons 28 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: ATL -3  Over/Under: 53.5


49ers 20, Chiefs 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: KC -6.5  Over/Under: 55.5


Raiders 17, Dolphins 21 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: MIA -3  Over/Under: 44.5


Bills 10, Vikings 34 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: MIN -16.5  Over/Under: 40.5


Colts 28, Eagles 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: PHI -6.5  Over/Under: 47.5


Packers 35, Redskins 23 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: GB -3  Over/Under: 45.5


Bengals 24, Panthers 28 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: CAR -3  Over/Under: 43.5


Titans 13, Jaguars 23 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: JAC -6.5  Over/Under: 39.5


Broncos 27, Ravens 21 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: BAL -5.5  Over/Under: 44.5


Giants 17, Texans 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: HOU -6  Over/Under: 42


Chargers 14, Rams 28 (4:05 PM, CBS)

Spread: LAR -7  Over/Under: 48


Bears 23, Cardinals 10 (4:25 PM, FOX)

Spread: CHI -5.5  Over/Under: 38


Cowboys 19, Seahawks 21 (4:25 PM, FOX)

Spread: SEA -1.5  Over/Under: 41.5


Patriots 32, Lions 23 (8:20 PM, NBC)

Spread: NE -6.5  Over/Under: 53.5


Monday

Steelers 31, Buccaneers 34 (8:15 PM, ESPN)

Spread: PIT -1.5  Over/Under: 53.5


Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders as of Thursday Evening