The wild ride that is the 2018 NFL regular season is almost over. It's been 16 weeks of amazing plays, incredible performances and shocking finishes, and Week 17 is sure to bring more. I would like to thank all of my readers who have stuck with me through this whole season and continued to support me and this blog. Patrick Mahomes should win the NFL MVP, but, to quote Kevin Durant (I'm crossing sports here), "You the real MVP". Many fantasy leagues had their championship last week, and I would like to congratulate everyone who came out victorious in fantasy football this year. For some people (including myself), the fantasy season is not over. So, for those of you playing for a fantasy football championship this week, here are my Week 17 Picks to Click.
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| Pat Mahomes should be the NFL MVP... no, I meant Pat Mahomes II. |
Week 17 Picks to Click
QB
Top 3
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (vs. OAK) - As I said earlier, Patty deserves to be the NFL MVP. In case you're curious, here are my picks for the other major awards:
- Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, Saints - Brees gets the consolation prize for finishing as runner-up for MVP.
- Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams - Donald is the rare defensive player who is in the MVP conversation.
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns - Saquon Barkley has been incredible, but Baker has reversed the fortunes for an entire franchise.
- Defensive Rookie of the Year: Darius Leonard, LB, Colts - The QB of the Indianapolis defense leads the league in tackles by a wide margin.
- Comeback Player of the Year: Andrew Luck, QB, Colts - J.J. Watt is also a candidate here, but Luck has been one of the best quarterback's in the NFL this year, after not playing last year.
- Coach of the Year: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears - There are a lot of good candidates (Andy Reid, Frank Reich, Anthony Lynn...), but Nagy has turned the Bears into a dangerous team.
- Executive of the Year: John Dorsey, GM, Browns - There are also a lot of good candidates here (Ryan Pace, Chris Ballard, Tom Telesco...), but I'll make the biased pick.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs. CIN) - It's a must-win game for Ben and the Steelers, and it's against one of the worst defenses in the National Football League.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (vs. DET) - The Packers aren't going to the playoffs, but A-Rodge can close out the season on a high note against Detroit.
Sleepers
Nick Foles, Eagles (@ WAS) - After throwing four touchdown passes last week, Napoleon Dynamite needs a win (and a Vikings loss) to lead Philly back to the playoffs. Never bet against Nick.
Teddy Bridgewater, Saints (vs. CAR) - With the number one seed already locked up, New Orleans will rest many of its starters Sunday. That gives the former Minnesota first-rounder a chance.
Baker Mayfield, Browns (@ BAL) - I know he's facing the toughest defense in the NFL, but I wouldn't bet against Baker and a Browns team that has a chance to ruin Baltimore's season.
RB
Top 3
Saquon Barkley, Giants (vs. DAL) - Many top running backs will be resting this week, but not Saquon, who will try to cap off a great rookie season with a strong performance.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers (@ DEN) - The Chargers still have a shot at the number one seed, so their stars will be playing Sunday.
Chris Carson, Seahawks (vs. ARI) - Carson draws the best matchup of the weekend, against Arizona's league-worst rush defense.
Sleepers
C.J. Anderson, Rams (vs. SF) - It looks like the Rams will sit Todd Gurley again this week, which means Anderson, who had 167 yards rushing last week, will get another start.
Damien Williams, Chiefs (vs. OAK) - Kansas City's new feature back has played very well the last two weeks, and should play well Sunday against Oakland.
Jeff Wilson Jr., 49ers (@ LAR) - With Matt Breida out, Wilson will take the reigns again. He has played well when Breida has been out.
WR
Top 3
Julio Jones, Falcons (@ TB) - Atlanta's star wideout should be able to shred Tampa Bay's vulnerable secondary on Sunday.
Devante Adams, Packers (vs. DET) - Adams has quietly been one of the best and most consistent receivers in the NFL this season.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (vs. JAX) - The Texans have something to play for Sunday, which means Nuke will be out there making plays.
Sleepers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (vs. CIN) - Antonio Brown is listed as questionable after not practicing this week. Whether AB plays (he probably will) or not, JuJu is a must-start.
Robby Anderson, Jets (@ NE) - Robby had 140 yards receiving last week, and he has scored a touchdown each of the last three weeks.
Adam Humphries, Buccaneers (vs. ATL) - Humphries has carved out a key role in the Tampa offense (he had 10 catches last week), and he faces a weak Atlanta defense on Sunday.
TE
Top 3
Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs. OAK) - Unlike the other positions, there is no change at the top this week.
Zach Ertz, Eagles (@ WAS) - The top three tight ends happen to be on teams that are either playing for something this week...
George Kittle, 49ers (@ LAR) - ...or are already eliminated.
Sleeper
Evan Engram, Giants (vs. DAL) - Engram had 87 yards receiving (and 26 yards rushing) last week, and it once again looks like Odell Beckham Jr. won't suit up.
Jared Cook, Raiders (@ KC) - Cook hasn't done much the past two games, but Oakland's top pass-catcher should produce against Kansas City's atrocious defense.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. CHI) - After a largely disappointing season, Rudolph finally broke out for 122 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Vikes need another big game from his this week.
D/ST
Top 3
Seattle Seahawks (vs. ARI) - It's been a rough year in Arizona, especially for the Cardinal offense, which faces a team that forced two turnovers last week and "held" Kansas City to 31 points.
Houston Texans (vs. JAX) - The Texans have something to play for, and we all know about Jacksonville's offensive woes (although Blake Bortles is back this week).
Los Angeles Rams (vs. SF) - Aaron Donald and the Rams host Nick Mullens and the Niners. I'll take Donald and the Rams.
Sleepers
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN) - The Bengals have lost just about every offensive playmaker they had, and they scored 16 points last week in Cleveland.
Philadelphia Eagles (@ WAS) - The clock struck midnight for Josh Johnson and Washington last week, and this week, they'll be facing another team in desperate need of a win.
Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN) - I could see this being a low-scoring game (or a Colts blowout), especially if Blaine Gabbert starts at quarterback for the Titans.
K
Top 3
Greg Zuerlein, Rams (vs. SF)
Harrison Butker, Chiefs (vs. OAK)
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs. NYJ)
Week 17 Game Picks
Record
Last Week: 13-3 vs. Spread: 9-5-2 Over/Under: 11-5
Season: 150-90 vs. Spread: 118-103-8 Over/Under: 108-126-4
(All Times Eastern)
Sunday
Dolphins @ Bills (1:00 PM, CBS)
Josh Allen will look to finish his up-and-down rookie season on a high note, and I think he will.
Spread: BUF -5.5 Over/Under: 39.5
Prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 14
Lions @ Packers (1:00 PM, FOX)
The most important games of the day were flexed back, so not much is happening early.
Spread: GB -8 Over/Under: 44.5
Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 13
Jets @ Patriots (1:00 PM, CBS)
The Patriots are playing for a first-round bye, so they won't go easy on the Jets.
Spread: NE -13.5 Over/Under: 46
Prediction: Patriots 35, Jets 17
Panthers @ Saints (1:00 PM, FOX)
The Saints will likely rest most of their starters, but Carolina is starting rookie Kyle Allen at QB.
Spread: NO -7 Over/Under: 42.5
Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 17
Cowboys @ Giants (1:00 PM, FOX)
The Giants almost defeated Indianapolis on the road last week, and Dallas might rest some starters.
Spread: NYG -6 Over/Under: 41
Prediction: Giants 24, Cowboys 20
Falcons @ Buccaneers (1:00 PM, FOX)
This could be a high-scoring affair between two weak defenses, one I think Tampa will win.
Spread: ATL -2 Over/Under: 52
Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 28
Jaguars @ Texans (1:00 PM, CBS)
Blake Bortles should provide more than Cody Kessler did, but the Texans are a much better team.
Spread: HOU -6.5 Over/Under: 40
Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 16
Chargers @ Broncos (4:25 PM, CBS)
The Chargers, who still have a small shot at the one seed, should beat the banged-up Broncos.
Spread: LAC -6 Over/Under: 42
Prediction: Chargers 24, Broncos 19
Raiders @ Chiefs (4:25 PM, CBS)
The Chiefs need a win to lock up the division and home-field advantage, and they should get it.
Spread: KC -14 Over/Under: 52.5
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Raiders 28
49ers @ Rams (4:25 PM, CBS)
The Rams, like the Chiefs, clinch a first-round bye with a win, and, like Kansas City, they should.
Spread: LAR -10.5 Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction: Rams 32, 49ers 17
Bears @ Vikings (4:25 PM, CBS)
Although the Bears have something to play for, I think Minnesota will pull out the win.
Spread: MIN -5.5 Over/Under: 40.5
Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 20
Bengals @ Steelers (4:25 PM, CBS)
The Steelers need a win and a Baltimore loss (or Colts-Titans tie) to get in. They'll get the win.
Spread: PIT -14.5 Over/Under: 45.5
Prediction: Steelers 31, Bengals 21
Cardinals @ Seahawks (4:25 PM, FOX)
These two teams are going in completely opposite directions right now.
Spread: SEA -13 Over/Under: 38.5
Prediction: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 14
Eagles @ Redskins (4:25 PM, FOX)
As I said last week, Nick Foles and the Eagles are on a mission. Don't bet against Nick Foles.
Spread: PHI -7 Over/Under: 42
Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 16
Browns @ Ravens (4:25 PM, CBS)
In what could be the game of the day, I can't go against the dangerous Brownies.
Spread: BAL -6 Over/Under: 40.5
Prediction: Browns 24, Ravens 21
Colts @ Titans (8:20 PM, NBC)
The season ends with a classic "Win or Go Home" game. Anything can happen, but Indy is better.
Spread: IND -3.5 Over/Under: 44
Prediction: Colts 24, Titans 21
Stats and Info via ESPN.com and FantasyPros.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Saturday afternoon
