Thursday, October 25, 2018

College Football Week 9 Preview

As we enter the ninth week of the 2018-19 college football season, only five undefeated teams remain. With Ohio State, NC State and Cincinnati all losing last week, the list of unbeatens has been whittled down to Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Central Florida, and South Florida. Alabama and Central Florida are off this week. I think at least one of the other three will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday.

Image result for georgia vs. florida
Florida and Georgia face off in a Top-10 matchup Saturday

Record
Last Week: 13-2   vs. Spread: 11-4   Over/Under: 4-11
Season: 106-33   vs. Spread: 63-61   Over/Under: 49-73-2


Thursday

Baylor @ #13 West Virginia (7:00 PM, FOX Sports 1)

West Virginia will look to bounce back from a loss to Iowa State two weeks ago when the Mountaineers host Baylor Thursday night, Both teams are coming off of bye weeks, and both teams lost their last game. I think Will Grier and company will bounce back from their first loss of the season at home Thursday night against 4-3 Baylor.

Spread: WVU -14  Over/Under: 67.5

Prediction: West Virginia 35, Baylor 23


#25 Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (7:30 PM, ESPNU)

APP STATE HAS MADE A TOP 25 APPEARANCE!!! This is the first time the Mountaineers have been ranked since moving up to FBS (from FCS) in 2014. Their only blemish this season is a first-week overtime loss to Penn State. This week, App State travels to Statesboro, Georgia, to battle 6-1 Georgia Southern, whose one loss was at Clemson (38-7). The Eagles are a tough team, but I don't see them upsetting a team that ranks in the top 20 in total offense (17th) and total defense (8th).

Spread: APP -10   Over/Under: 50

Prediction: Appalachian State 42, Georgia Southern 30


Friday

#23 Utah @ UCLA (10:30 PM, ESPN)

We get Friday night #PAC12AfterDark this week, which means anything could happen. Even aliens. But probably not aliens. Chip Kelly's squad has won two in a row after losing its first five games. Meanwhile, the Utes have won three in a row. Utah ranks seventh in the FBS in total defense (286 yards allowed per game). UCLA ranks 100th in total defense (425 yards allowed per game). Like I said, anything could happen, but a Utah win is the most likely outcome.

Spread: UTAH -10.5   Over/Under: 54.5

Prediction: Utah 38, UCLA 24


Saturday

#2 Clemson @ Florida State (Noon, ABC)

The second-ranked Tigers will try to stay unbeaten when they travel to Tallahassee on Saturday. Florida State has played better of late, going 3-1 in its last three games (with the one loss being by one point to Miami), but the Noles will have a hard time upsetting a Clemson team that annihilated NC State last week. I do not think Clemson will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten this week.

Spread: CLEM -17   Over/Under: 51

Prediction: Clemson 37, Florida State 23 


#20 Wisconsin @ Northwestern (Noon, FOX)

Over in the Big Ten, Wisconsin and Northwestern face off in a game that could have major implications in the Big Ten West division. The Wildcats currently lead the division at 4-1, but the Badgers are right behind, tied with Iowa and Purdue at 3-1. I think this will be a tight contest, but I think Wisconsin will emerge with the crucial victory.

Spread: WIS -6.5   Over/Under: 53

Prediction: Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 27


#9 Florida @ #7 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS)

This Top-10 SEC battle might be the most appealing matchup this weekend. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. While 6-1 Florida has won five in a row (including one against LSU) since losing to Kentucky, 6-1 Georgia suffered its first loss two weeks ago against LSU. If the Bulldogs play like they did against LSU, they'll lose. I think they'll play a lot better and get the home-field win.

Spread: UGA -6.5   Over/Under: 52

Prediction: Georgia 28, Florida 17


Kansas State @ #8 Oklahoma (3:30 PM, FOX)

Oklahoma responded to a loss in the Red River Rivalry with a thumping of TCU last week, and now the Sooners are back on track in their quest to get back to the College Football Playoff. Kansas State beat Oklahoma State last week, but the Wildcats are 3-4 on the season. I think the Sooners will send them to 3-5 on Saturday afternoon.

Spread: OU -24.5   Over/Under: 64

Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Kansas State 24


#18 Iowa @ #17 Penn State (3:30 PM, ESPN)

Two teams with hopes of getting to the Big Ten Championship face off in Happy Valley Saturday. The 6-1 Hawkeyes have the third-best defense in the country (258 yards allowed per game), and while the 5-2 Nittany Lions are touted for being tough at home, both of their losses this season occurred in State College. With momentum on its side, I think Iowa comes out with the win.

Spread: PSU -6.5   Over/Under: 51.5

Prediction: Iowa 31, Penn State 28


#21 South Florida @ Houston (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)

Remember how I said that I think at least one unbeaten team will go down this week? Well, we have arrived at that point. The 7-0 Bulls travel to Houston Saturday to face the 6-1 Cougars, USF's toughest test yet. In fact, the host Cougs are favored by over a touchdown. Just last season, Houston ended South Florida's unbeaten season after the Bulls started 7-0. I think history repeats itself.

Spread: HOU -7.5   Over/Under: 75

Prediction: Houston 38, South Florida 34


#12 Kentucky @ Missouri (4:00 PM, SEC Network)

Speaking of ranked teams being road underdogs against un-ranked teams, 4-3 Missouri is favored by a touchdown at home against 6-1 Kentucky. The Wildcats have struggled the last two games, barely beating Vandy two weeks after losing to Texas A&M in overtime. Mizzou could make it interesting, but I do expect Kentucky to escape with a victory.

Spread: MIZZOU -7   Over/Under: 56 

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Missouri 19


#15 Washington @ California (6:30 PM, FOX Sports 1)

Out West, 6-2 Washington takes on 4-3 California. Both teams sport statistically strong defenses. Cal ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense (321 yards allowed per game), while Washington ranks 16th (309 yards allowed per game). Despite that, I think it'll be a relatively high-scoring game, and I think Washington will win by at least two touchdowns.

Spread: WAS -11.5   Over/Under: 45

Prediction: Washington 38, California 24


#14 Washington State @ #24 Stanford (7:00 PM, PAC-12)

Two ranked teams square off in primetime on the PAC-12 Network Saturday night. The 6-1 Cougars have won three in a row, including a 14-point win against Oregon last Saturday night. The 5-2 Cardinal have been up-and-down, coming back to beat Oregon earlier in the season, but then losing two of their three games since. The Cougs are playing really well right now, and I think they'll roll out of Cali with a win.

Spread: STAN -3   Over/Under: 53.5

Prediction: Washington State 35, Stanford 21


#16 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (7:00 PM, ESPN)

Mississippi State has fallen out of the Top 25 after losing three of its last four. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has won its last three. The Aggies' two losses came against the top two teams in the country, And they've played those two teams closer than anybody else. The Bulldogs could make this close (most of A&M's games have been pretty close), but the Aggies should leave with the win.

Spread: MSST -2   Over/Under: 43.5

Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 24


#22 NC State @ Syracuse (7:00 PM, ESPN2)

North Carolina State will try to pick itself up off the pavement after getting flambeed by Clemson last week. The 5-1 Wolfpack may face a tough test in Syracuse, a team that has had a wild last three games. After coming within four points of beating Clemson (at Clemson!) four weeks ago, the Orange went to Pittsburgh and lost in overtime. Then after a bye week, 'Cuse returned home and squeaked by North Carolina in two overtimes. I think the hosts will find a way to win this one.

Spread: NCST -1.5   Over/Under: 65.5

Prediction: Syracuse 34, NC State 31


#3 Notre Dame @ Navy (8:00 PM, CBS)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are firmly in position to grab a Playoff spot, especially considering they don't have to worry about a conference championship game. This week, they travel to San Diego to take on Navy, a team I would consider picking to upset Notre Dame if the Midshipmen weren't 2-6. Despite the record, I do think Navy's triple-option attack could make things a little interesting. In the end, I fully expect Notre Dame to head to Northwestern with an 8-0 record.

Spread: ND -24   Over/Under: 54.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Navy 32


#6 Texas @ Oklahoma State (8:00 PM, ABC)

This week's Saturday Night Football game takes place in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State will look to knock off Texas. Texas has been red-hot since its first-week loss to Maryland, while Oklahoma State has lost three of its last four games. Even at home under the lights, I have a hard time envisioning a Cowboy upset Saturday night.

Spread: TEX -3.5   Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 24


#19 Oregon @ Arizona (10:30 PM, ESPN)

This week blesses us with ranked #PAC12AfterDark on Friday and Saturday. I'm not quite sure what has happened to Arizona, a team with high hopes at the beginning of the year, thanks largely to an offense led by preseason Heisman candidate Khalil Tate. Even though Tate and running back J.J. Taylor have had solid numbers this season, the Wildcats are 3-5. Despite all signs pointing to the Ducks, I'm going with Arizona out West Saturday night.

Spread: ORE -9.5   Over/Under: 65

Prediction: Arizona 38, Oregon 35


Stats and info via ESPN.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thursday afternoon

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