You can't predict college football. There is no better evidence for that statement than what happened last weekend. On Friday night, unbeaten South Florida, a new addition to the AP Top 25, had to overcome a two-touchdown deficit to beat one-win Tulsa by one point. Saturday, multiple top-ten teams struggled. #2 Georgia got walloped by 13th-ranked LSU. #3 Ohio State was close with Minnesota for most of the game before pulling away late. #5 Notre Dame almost became Pitt's latest upset victim, pulling out a five-point win. #6 West Virginia (vs. Iowa State), #7 Washington (vs. #17 Oregon) and #8 Penn State (vs. Michigan State) all fell on Saturday. And #9 Texas (vs. Baylor) and #10 Central Florida (vs. Memphis) both came extremely close to tumbling. Outside of the top ten, #16 Miami (vs. Virginia), #19 Colorado (vs. USC) and #21 Auburn (vs. Tennessee) all suffered upsets. Every week, I try to anticipate the results of each game featuring a ranked team, and I try to use my knowledge of the teams, as well as stats and prior results, to make an educated guess. But you can't predict college football.
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| College Gameday is in Pullman, WA for the first time |
Record
Last Week: 10-6 vs. Spread: 7-9 Over/Under: 2-14
Season: 93-31 vs. Spread: 52-57 Over/Under: 45-62-2
Saturday
#6 Michigan @ #24 Michigan State (Noon, FOX)
Two in-state rivals coming off of big victories over ranked teams meet in East Lansing on Saturday. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke led the Spartans to an 20-17 upset of Penn State in Happy Valley, throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense held the dangerous Trace McSorely to 229 total yards and one touchdown. Later that night, the Wolverines bludgeoned Wisconsin, 38-13, behind another lights out performance from the nation's best defense (two interceptions, 283 yards allowed). Both teams have strong defenses, but Michigan's has been much more consistent, and Jim Harbaugh's offense has improved as the season has gone along.
Spread: MICH -7.5 Over/Under: 39.5
Prediction: Michigan 32, Michigan State 20
#9 Oklahoma @ TCU (Noon, ABC)
Both of these teams are looking to bounce back from losses. Oklahoma was felled by Texas on a last-second field goal in the Red River Rivalry two weeks ago. TCU has spiraled, losing three of its last four games, including last week against Texas Tech. Like most Big 12 games, this should be a shootout. Sooner quarterback Kyler Murray (21 touchdowns, three interceptions) has played a lot better than Horned Frog quarterback Shawn Robinson (nine touchdowns, eight interceptions), and the Sooners as a whole have played much better. I'm going with Oklahoma.
Spread: OKLA -7.5 O/U: 62
Prediction: Oklahoma 44, TCU 28
Maryland @ #19 Iowa (Noon, ESPN2)
Iowa makes its 2018 debut in the AP Top 25 this week. The 5-1 Hawkeyes have cruised through their schedule (aside from a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin). After winning their first two, including an upset victory over Texas, the Terrapins have gone 2-2, losing to Temple and Michigan. The Terp offense could have a hard time against an Iowa defense that ranks fifth in FBS in yards allowed per game (282). This game shouldn't be particularly close, and I don't think it will be.
Spread: IOWA -9 O/U: 42
Prediction: Iowa 31, Maryland 14
#20 Cincinnati @ Temple (Noon, ESPNU)
Speaking of debuts in the Top 25, Cincinnati makes its first appearance this year after winning its first six games. Despite being unbeaten, the Bearcats haven't played anybody that imposing. The 4-3 Owls, who beat Navy last week, may be Cincy's toughest test yet. However, they'll have to traverse the Bearcat defense, which ranks fourth in the country (272 yards allowed per game). I think the Bearcats will escape and go to 7-0.
Spread: TEMPLE -3.5 O/U: 47
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Temple 28
Illinois @ #23 Wisconsin (Noon, FOX Sports 1)
Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of Michigan, Wisconsin will look to bounce back against lowly Illinois. The 3-3 Fighting Illini have the sixth-worst defense in all of FBS (505 yards allowed per game). Meanwhile, the Badgers are averaging 447 yards per game offensively. This game should not be very close at all, and I don't think it will be.
Spread: WISC -24 O/U: 55
Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Illinois 10
#1 Alabama @ Tennessee (3:30 PM, CBS)
The Crimson Tide are the only team that hasn't even been almost beaten. Alabama's closest margin of victory was against Texas A&M. The margin of victory in that game? 22 points. Nick Saban's squad is the clear-cut number one in college football, and it's not really close. Will the Tide finally encounter a nail-biter this Saturday in Tennessee? Probably not.
Spread: ALA -29 O/U: 57.5
Prediction: Alabama 52, Tennessee 14
#16 NC State @ #3 Clemson (3:30 PM, ESPN)
This ACC matchup in South Carolina Saturday afternoon is the only contest this weekend that does not feature a team with a loss. Ryan Finley (1621 yards passing, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions) and the 5-0 Wolfpack will look to knock off Trevor Lawrence (868 yards passing, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions in less than six games) and the 6-0 Tigers. Last year's NC State-Clemson game was a close one (Clemson won, 38-31), and I wouldn't be surprised if this is another nail-biter. I do think Clemson will win, however.
Spread: CLEM -17.5 O/U: 58
Prediction: Clemson 42, NC State 35
Colorado @ #15 Washington (3:30 PM, FOX)
This week in #PAC12BeforeDark, 5-1 Colorado travels to Seattle to take on 5-2 Washington. Both teams lost last week. The Buffaloes suffered their first loss of the season, falling to USC, 31-20. Meanwhile, the Huskies lost in overtime to Oregon. It should be a pretty offensive game, as Colorado (36th) and Washington (42nd) both rank in the top 50 in the FBS in total offense. I think the host Huskies come out with the win.
Spread: WASH -17 O/U: 50
Prediction: Washington 45, Colorado 38
#18 Penn State @ Indiana (3:30 PM, ABC)
Two slumping Big Ten teams face off in Bloomington Saturday afternoon as Penn State and Indiana try to get back in the win column. After a tight loss to Ohio State (at home) three weeks ago, the Nittany Lions lost a tight one to Michigan State (at home) last week. The Hoosiers lost to Ohio State two weeks ago, then lost to Iowa last week. IU could make this close, but I think Penn State gets back to its winning ways this weekend.
Spread: PSU -14 O/U: 57
Prediction: Penn State 40, Indiana 31
#22 Mississippi State @ #5 LSU (7:00 PM, ESPN)
This week features some enticing Saturday night SEC action. LSU bounced back from its first loss of the season (a 27-19 loss to Florida) with a 36-16 rout of Georgia. Mississippi State also had a big win last week (after two straight losses), upsetting Auburn, 23-9. It will be a tough task for the Bulldogs to follow up that upset with an upset in Baton Rouge. I don't think it will happen.
Spread: LSU -6.5 O/U: 46
Prediction: LSU 35, Mississippi State 24
#10 UCF @ East Carolina (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
After barely escaping Memphis last week, the unbeaten Central Florida Knights get East Carolina. The Pirates, who have been blasted by Temple and Houston the last two weeks, don't stand much of a chance. Central Florida should rout East Carolina.
Spread: UCF -21.5 O/U: 65
Prediction: UCF 55, East Carolina 21
UConn @ #21 South Florida (7:00 PM, CBS Sports Network)
South Florida, like its counterpart from the north, is unbeaten, coming off an incredibly narrow victory (as narrow as they come), and playing a far inferior team. Connecticut is 1-5, and none of the five losses have been even relatively close. The Bulls of USF should destroy the Huskies, and I think they will.
Spread: USF -32 O/U: 69.5
Prediction: South Florida 55, UConn 7
#12 Oregon @ #25 Washington State (7:30 PM, FOX)
College Gameday is in Pullman, Washington, for the first time ever ahead of Washington State's showdown with Oregon Saturday night. The Ducks beat the other PAC-12 team from the Evergreen Sate last week, and will look to make it two in a row over Pacific Northwest teams. The ball will likely be in the air a lot, as potential number one pick Justin Herbert (1613 yards passing, 17 touchdowns, five interceptions) takes on the pass-heavy Cougars, led by quarterback Gardner Minshew (2422 yards passing, 19 touchdowns, four interceptions). I think the Cougars will pull off the victory at home.
Spread: WSU -3 O/U: 68.5
Prediction: Washington State 38, Oregon 31
#2 Ohio State @ Purdue (7:30 PM, ABC)
Saturday night's primetime ABC game features the unbeaten Buckeyes and streaking Boilermakers. After starting the season 0-3, Purdue has won its last three in convincing fashion. Ohio State did not beat Minnesota in convincing fashion last week, but still came out with a 30-14 win. I'm always wary about night games on the road, and Purdue is not a team to be taken lightly, but I think Ohio State escapes with a win.
Spread: OSU -13 O/U: 68
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Purdue 28
Vanderbilt @ #14 Kentucky (7:30 PM, SEC Network)
As soon as I finally jump on the Kentucky bandwagon, they let me down. The Wildcats suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago, falling to Texas A&M in overtime. Now they host 3-4 Vandy, which has had a rough last two weeks, losing to Georgia and Florida, respectively. Kentucky shouldn't have a hard time getting back on the wagon this week.
Spread: UK -11 O/U: 45.5
Prediction: Kentucky 32, Vanderbilt 17
Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Saturday morning
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