Week 14 College Football Picks: Championship Week

Play of Week 13: "Can't Stop, Won't Stop"

Yes, I am kind of cheating here. Technically, this isn't college football (it's high school football), and it's technically from the weekend before last. But I had to put this in here, because it may be the most favorable roll of all time. This punter from Raby, Illinois, put some kind of spell on this ball.


(Mis)Play of Week 13: "Mistakes Were Made"

I'm going to stick with punters for the (Mis)Play of the Week. I enjoy this video because you get to see the birth, death, and mutilation of a dream in just 30 seconds. I don't know if this was designed to be a fake punt or not, but it looks to me like the punter is about to punt it, notices that he seemingly has plenty of room to run, starts running, quickly realizes that he has made a grave mistake, and then basically makes things as bad as they can possibly get. Either way, it's great entertainment.


Performance of Week 13: USF and UCF

I am throwing all of the rules out the window, but they are my rules, so I can do whatever I want. Anyway, the South Florida-Central Florida game last Friday night may have been the most exciting college football game this season (so far). The two prolific offenses engaged in a dogfight for 60 minutes. USF quarterback Quinton Flowers threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns (227 of those yards and one of those touchdowns was to Tyrie McCants), while UCF QB McKenzie Milton threw for 373 yards and four touchdowns. Charlie Strong's team did all it could to give Central Florida its first loss of the season, equaling the score at 42 with 1:41 to play. But on the ensuing kickoff, Mike Hughes went 95 yards to the house to give the Knights a 49-42 lead. The Bulls tried to mount another game-tying drive, but it ended after a fumble on the third play. Unbeaten UCF survived USF to go to the AAC Championship.



Championship Week Picks

Record
Last Week: 16-4   vs. Spread: 13-5-1   O/U: 8-11
Season: 193-45   vs. Spread: 111-97-4   O/U: 99-112-1

Pac-12 Championship
#12 Stanford 28, #10 USC 24   Line: USC -4   O/U: 59 
When: Friday, 8:00 PM, ESPN
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Playoff Stakes: Win or lose, Stanford won't be in the playoff. If USC wins, the Trojans will need a lot of help from other teams and the committee.

The ground-and-pound Cardinal, led by banged-up Heisman candidate Bryce Love (1,848 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the season), face off with the talented Trojans (3,462 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season) to kick off Championship Weekend. USC may have more talent, but Darnold and company have been shaky this year. I was impressed by Stanford sophomore quarterback K.J. Costello in a win over Notre Dame last week, and I think he and Love help the Cardinal squeeze past the Trojans.


AAC Championship
#20 Memphis 44, #14 UCF 52   Line: UCF -7   O/U: 81
When: Saturday, Noon, ABC
Where: Orlando, FL
Playoff Stakes: Neither of these teams (even an unbeaten UCF) will get into the playoff, but the winner will most likely go to a New Year's Six bowl.

Coming off a thrilling win over in-state rival South Florida last week, UCF looks to stay unbeaten against 10-1 Memphis. These two teams play earlier in the season (September 30), with the Knights coming away with a 40-13 win. Considering it's the conference championship (and it's a rematch), I expect this game to be closer than the first one. Still, I think Central Florida has too much firepower, and will beat the Tigers again in a game that should be very high-scoring.


MAC Championship
Akron 27, Toledo 42   Line: TOLEDO -21   O/U: 58.5
When: Saturday, Noon, ESPN
Where: Detroit, MI
Playoff Stakes: There are absolutely no playoff stakes, but who doesn't like #MACtion?

I don't expect this contest to be extremely close. Akron come in 7-5, while Toledo enters at 10-2. When these two teams met on October 21, Toledo cruised to a 48-21 victory at home. This will be at a neutral site, which should help Akron a little, but the Rockets, who are led by talented senior quarterback Logan Woodside (3,451 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and three interceptions this season), are a lot better than the Zips.


C-USA Championship
North Texas 30, Florida Atlantic 52   Line: FAU -11.5   O/U: 73
When: Saturday, Noon, ESPN2
Where: Boca Raton, FL
Playoff Stakes: Again, absolutely no playoff stakes, but FAU is coached by noted tweeter Lane Kiffin.

This is another conference championship game that might not be all that close. While both the Mean Green and the Owls come in at 9-3, FAU beat North Texas 69-31 on October 21. Florida Atlantic is better than North Texas in total offense and total defense, and Lane Kiffin's team is 8-0 in conference (compared to 7-1 for the Mean Green). Plus, it's a practical home game for Florida Atlantic.


Big 12 Championship
#11 TCU 32, #3 Oklahoma 41   Line: OKLA -7   O/U: 63.5
When: Saturday, 12:30 PM, FOX
Where: Arlington, TX
Playoff Stakes: If Oklahoma wins, the Sooners are in the playoff. If TCU wins... complete chaos.

The first conference championship game this weekend with major playoff implications is the inaugural Big 12 Championship. Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma have won seven games in a row (including a 38-20 victory over TCU on November 11), and the Sooners control their own playoff destiny. TCU will show up ready to spoil Oklahoma's playoff hopes (and make the committee's job a whole lot more difficult), but I think Baker and the Sooners will outlast the Horned Frogs.


SEC Championship
#6 Georgia 28, #2 Auburn 34   Line: AUBURN -1.5   O/U: 48
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM, CBS
Where: Atlanta, GA
Playoff Stakes: This one's pretty simple. The winner probably gets into the playoff. The more interesting SEC storyline will be whether Alabama gets in.

The SEC Championship should be a fun one Saturday afternoon. Both teams will be playing for their playoff lives, and Georgia will be looking to avenge a 40-17 loss to Auburn on November 11. I think the rematch will be a lot closer, but I think the Tigers have more talent than the Bulldogs (as they showed last time the two teams played).


MWC Championship
#25 Fresno State 31, Boise State 38   Line: BOISE -9   O/U: 50
When: Saturday, 7:45 PM, ESPN
Where: Boise, ID
Playoff Stakes: There are no playoff stakes, but there is a blue field.

Out West, Fresno State and Boise State meet for the second week in a row. The Bulldogs took care of business against the Broncos last week, winning 28-17. Somehow, Boise State still has home-field advantage in the championship, and I think that (along with many other things) will help the Blue Field Broncos win this time.


Big Ten Championship
#8 Ohio State 40, #4 Wisconsin 32   Line: OHIOST -6   O/U: 51
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM, FOX
Where: Indianapolis, IN
Playoff Stakes: If Wisconsin wins, the Badgers are in the playoff. If Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes will need some help.

Wisconsin will be looking to polish off an undefeated season with a playoff appearance, while Ohio State will be looking to sneak back into the playoff. Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett had surgery on Sunday, but is expected to play Saturday night. He'll have to deal with the Badger defense, which ranks first in the country. Even if J.T. Barrett isn't able to play the whole game, I think the Buckeyes can hold off the Badgers, who haven't really been challenged outside of Camp Randall Stadium this season.


ACC Championship
#7 Miami 14, #1 Clemson 28   Line: CLEM -9   O/U: 46
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC
Where: Charlotte, NC
Playoff Stakes: If Clemson wins, the Tigers are in the playoff. If Miami wins, the Hurricanes may or may not be in the playoff. 

Two one-loss teams looking to get in to the playoff will face off Saturday night in Charlotte. Clemson has gone back to looking more like a defending National Champion after losing to Syracuse earlier in the season, while Miami suffered its first loss of the season last week against Pitt. The Tigers have looked like a stronger team than the Hurricanes all year, and I think it'll show Saturday night.


Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 12 NFL Picks

Week 12 NFL Picks

Sunday
Browns 17, Bengals 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: CIN -7.5   O/U: 38.5
Buccaneers 13, Falcons 28 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: ATL -10   O/U: 47
Titans 20, Colts 14 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: TEN -3   O/U: 47
Bills 24, Chiefs 27 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: KC -8.5   O/U: 47
Dolphins 17, Patriots 35 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: NE -17   O/U: 49
Panthers 27, Jets 17 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: CAR -5.5   O/U: 39.5
Bears 20, Eagles 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: PHI -14   O/U: 43.5
Seahawks 21, 49ers 13 (4:05 PM, FOX)
Line: SEA -6.5   O/U: 45
Broncos 14, Raiders 28 (4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: OAK -3.5   O/U: 41.5
Saints 33, Rams 28 (4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: LAR -2.5   O/U: 54
Jaguars 32, Cardinals 7 (4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: JAC -5.5   O/U: 38
Packers 17, Steelers 27 (8:30 PM, NBC)
Line: PIT -13.5   O/U: 43
Monday
Texans 10, Raiders 24 (8:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: BAL -7.5   O/U: 38

Week 13 College Football Picks: Rivalry Week

IT'S RIVALRY WEEK!!!!!!!!!! For many fans (and players/coaches), this is the biggest week of the season. Not only are their bragging rights and rivalry trophies at stake this weekend, there are also conference championships (and Playoff spots) on the line. Here is what's up for grabs on Saturday:

• The winner of Alabama-Auburn will play Georgia in the SEC Championship
• If Washington State beats Washington, the Huskies will go to the Pac-12 Championship Game to play USC. If Washington wins, Stanford will go to the Pac-12 Championship Game.
• Multiple teams need to win to keep any hopes of getting into the Playoff alive.

Let's get to the Rivalry Week picks. But first...

Picks

#9 Ohio State 28, Michigan 14 (Noon, FOX)
Line: OHIOST -12   O/U: 50

This year's installment of the best rivalry in college football features an Ohio State team looking to keep its Playoff hopes alive against an offensively-challenged Michigan team. The Wolverines could keep it real close in the Big House, but I just don't see John O'Korn and the Michigan offense being able to keep up with J.T. Barrett and company.

#7 Georgia 24, Georgia Tech 17 (Noon, ABC)
Line: UGA -11   O/U: 51.5

Georgia will try to keep its Playoff hopes alive when it battles in-state rival Georgia Tech in Atlanta. I think the host Yellow Jackets will hang in their in a game that will likely be highlighted by the running backs, but I think Georgia's lethal tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will propel the Bulldogs past Georgia Tech.

Kansas 10, #19 Oklahoma State 48 (Noon, FS1)
Line: OKLAST -41   O/U: 70

Oklahoma State will look to close out the season with a win over lowly Kansas. The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing loss to Kansas State, while the Jayhawks are coming off 10 straight disappointing losses to various teams. Mason Rudolph and the 'Boys shouldn't have any problem at home against Kansas, but may have trouble covering the 41-point spread.

East Carolina 21, #20 Memphis 52 (Noon, ESPNU)
Line: MEMP -28.5   O/U: 79

The 9-1 Memphis Tigers will look to keep their hopes of a New Year's Six Bowl alive against East Carolina this weekend. The 3-8 Pirates are coming off an impressive win over Cincinnati, but ECU is no match for the high-powered Tigers. Memphis should be able to cruise into its monumental conference championship meeting with UCF.

#1 Alabama 31, #10 Auburn 28 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: BAMA -4.5   O/U: 47

The weekend's most highly-anticipated matchup is an Iron Bowl meeting between two top ten teams with Playoff hopes. The winner of this rivalry game will go to the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide have dominated the Iron Bowl in recent years, but the Tigers have played very well at home. I think it'll come down to the wire, but I'll go with the unbeaten Crimson Tide.

#5 Wisconsin 35, Minnesota 17 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: WISC -17   O/U: 43.5

The unbeaten Badgers have a big matchup with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship coming up, but first, Wisky will look to hold on to Paul Bunyan's Axe when it travels to Minnesota this weekend. Wisconsin has beaten two ranked teams in a row, while the Golden Gophers just lost, 39-0, to Northwestern. The Badgers should run through Minnesota.

#10 Penn State 48, Maryland 24 (3:30 PM, BTN)
Line: PSU -22   O/U: 58

After close losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, Penn State has bounced back with home wins over Rutgers and Nebraska. Meanwhile, Maryland has lost three in a row. The weak Terrapin rushing defense (ranked 83rd nationally) will have a tough time containing Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 158 yards and three touchdowns last week.

#23 Boise State 35, Fresno State 27 (3:30 PM, CBSSN)
Line: BOISE -7   O/U: 48.5

The two best teams in the Mountain West face off for the first of two meetings in a row, as they have both clinched berths in the conference championship game. Although there isn't as much at stake this week, it should still be a competitive game in Fresno. The Broncos have looked pretty good recently, and I think they take Round 1 over the the Bulldogs.

West Virginia 14, #4 Oklahoma 35 (3:45 PM, ESPN)
Line: OKLA -22.5   O/U: 68

Neither of these teams' talented starting quarterbacks will start this game. West Virginia's Will Grier mangled his finger in a loss to Texas last week, and he won't return this season. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield won't start as punishment for his actions last week in a win over Kansas. However, Mayfield will probably play at some point, so the Sooners should cruise past the Grier-less Mountaineers.

#16 Michigan State 32, Rutgers 10 (4:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MICHST -13.5   O/U: 41

The Spartans followed up a blowout loss to Ohio State with a 10-point win over Maryland last week, while Rutgers followed up a blowout loss to Penn State with... a blowout loss to Indiana. The 4-7 Scarlet Knights are a lot better than they were a year ago, but they still aren't a good team, and Michigan State shouldn't have too much trouble with them.

#22 Northwestern 38, Illinois 14 (4:00 PM, FS1)
Line: NWEST -16.5   O/U: 46

In what looks to be the least exciting game of the day, the Wildcats, who have won six games in a row, travel to Champaign to play the Fighting Illini, who have lost nine games in a row. Illinois is clearly overmatched here, so this game shouldn't be close. Northwestern should have absolutely no problem winning its seventh game in a row.

#3 Clemson 30, #24 South Carolina 17 (7:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: CLEM -13.5   O/U: 46.5

Before their ACC Championship meeting with Miami, the Tigers travel to Columbia for a meeting with in-state rival South Carolina. The 8-3 Gamecocks haven't been "blown out" this season (their worst loss was a 24-10 loss to Georgia), and I don't think Clemson will blow them out this weekend. I do, however, think Clemson's defense will lead the Tigers to a victory.

Texas A&M 24, #18 LSU 35 (7:30 PM, SECN)
Line: LSU -10   O/U: 50.5

Since losing to Troy, LSU has righted the ship in a big way, winning five of six. The Tigers must be weary of a Texas A&M team that almost beat Alabama earlier this season, but Ed Orgeron's team is in a better place than Kevin Sumlin's team (which might not be Kevin Sumlin's team for long), and I think LSU takes this battle in Baton Rouge.

#8 Notre Dame 21, #21 Stanford 24 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: ND -2.5   O/U: 56.5

The road has been a little shaky for the Fighting Irish recently, as they followed up a blowout loss to Miami with a nail-biting win over Navy. Stanford has won seven of its last eight games (including an upset win over Washington), and the Cardinal are never an easy challenge. With momentum and home-field advantage on their its side, I'm taking Stanford in a nail-biter.

#13 Washington State 27, #17 Washington 42 (8:00 PM, FOX)
Line: WASH -10.5   O/U: 48

This year's Apple Cup features a Washington State team trying to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game against a Washington team trying to bounce back after a loss to Stanford and a near-loss to Utah. Most signs point to a Washington State victory, but I think the host Huskies will pull away from the Cougars to secure the Apple Cup.

Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Weekly Picks: Thanksgiving (and Black Friday) Edition

It's officially holiday season, and it kicks off this week with Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The NFL and college football are in the holiday spirit as well, as multiple football games will be played on Thursday and Friday. Because of that, I have decided to combine my weekly college football article and my weekly fantasy football article to create one for the Thursday and Friday games (I will still do my normal weekly articles as well). To celebrate the festivities, I will make my picks for the college and NFL games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and I will give some players I like in fantasy football this week from the Thanksgiving Day games. Before we get started, I would like to say that I am thankful for all of you. Without all of my readers (or "skimmers"), I would have little reason to continue doing this every week. So thank you all. I am also thankful for my two associates, Troy and Langston, for helping expand and improve this blog. I strongly urge you to read their articles as well (if you don't already). Alright, let's get started.

College Football

Play of Week 12: "Trojan Horse"

Who doesn't love a good ol' fake punt return punt return for a touchdown? On a night when two future NFL quarterbacks went at it out West, USC's special teams stole the show with this beauty of a fake that had everyone fooled. It would help the Trojans hang on to beat the Bruins, 28-23.


(Mis)Play of Week 12: "Kansas is Really Bad at Football"

Kansas played Oklahoma last weekend. That's not noteworthy. What is noteworthy is the fact the Kansas's captains all refused to shake Baker Mayfield's hand during the coin toss. Look, maybe they didn't shake Baker's hand because he's a cocky trashtalker (which is a bad reason not to shake somebody's hand), but you are a 1-10 team playing a Playoff contender, and you just gave the Heisman Trophy favorite more motivation to destroy you (which is what he and the Sooners did). Baker also responded by talking some trash. Everybody involved has been demoted from captain this week.


Performance of Week 12:

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (vs. NEV)

24 carries, 222 yards rushing, 2 TD; 429 all-purpose yards, 4 total TD

Not only did the nation's leading rusher have 222 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in a 42-23 win over Nevada, he also ran a kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown and ran a punt back 70 yards for a touchdown.

Picks

Record

Last Week: 22-1   vs. Spread: 12-9   O/U: 11-10

Season: 177-41   vs. Spread: 98-92-3   O/U: 91-101-1

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Thusday

Ole Miss 21, #14 Mississippi State 34 (7:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: MISSST -14.5   O/U: 65

The first big time rivalry game of the week is the Egg Bowl, which is the only college game being played on Thanksgiving. After almost beating Bama, the Bulldogs beat Arkansas by just a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Rebels lost by a touchdown to Texas A&M. Since this is a rivalry game, it could be close, but Mississippi State is clearly the better team.

Friday
#2 Miami 32, Pittsburgh 24 (Noon, ABC)
Line: MIAMI -13.5   O/U: 51.5
Friday features four games involving ranked teams, and many other games between non-ranked teams. The unbeaten Hurricanes should waltz into the ACC title game without much trouble, but they've had some close calls on the road this season. Even in a down year, Pat Narduzzi will have his team ready to play. Miami could cut it close again, but I expect the Canes to remain unbeaten.

Baylor 14, #12 TCU 31 (Noon, FS1)
Line: TCU -24.5   O/U: 51
TCU can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Friday by beating lowly Baylor. The 1-10 Bears are not good by any stretch of the imagination, but they have played some very good teams tough, including Oklahoma (lost by eight) and West Virginia (lost by two). The Horned Frogs may not crush Baylor, but they should win easily, especially with Kenny Hill coming back from injury.

South Florida 28, #15 UCF 35 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: UCF -10   O/U: 62
Don't look now, but South Florida - Central Florida may be the game of the weekend. The 9-1 Bulls will travel to Orlando to battle the 10-0 Knights with a berth in the AAC Championship on the line. I was tempted to go with South Florida in an upset over its rival, but UCF has undeniably looked like the best team in the American Conference this season.

#25 Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 19 (ESPN, 8:00 PM)
Line: VATECH -7.5   O/U: 50
Black Friday night features the battle of Virginia, as the Hokies and Cavaliers fight for the Commonwealth Cup. After dropping two in a row, Tech bounced back against Pitt last week. On the other side, Virginia has lost four of its last five. The host Hoos might make this rivalry game close, but the Hokies will prove too much in the end.


NFL

Top Performers of Week 11
QB: Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. ATL)
26-42, 258 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble; 7 carries, 86 yards rushing, 1 TD

RB: LeSean McCoy, Bills (@ LAC)
13 carries, 114 yards rushing, 1 TD; 1 catch, 12 yards receiving, 1 TD

WR: Antonio Brown, Steelers (vs. TEN)
10 catches, 144 yards receiving, 3 TD

TE: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (vs ATL)
7 catches, 58 yards receiving, 1 TD

D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CLE)
7 points allowed, 184 yards allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 3 fumble recoveries, 1 TD

K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (@ OAK)
FG: 4-4 (62 yards, 51 yards, 40 yards, 29 yards)  XP: 3-3


Picks

Record
Last Week: 8-5   vs. Spread: 5-7-1   O/U: 6-7
Season: 91-57   vs. Spread: 69-73-5   O/U: 72-71-2

(Home Team Listed Last)  (All Times Eastern)

Vikings 32, Lions 27 (12:30 PM, FOX)
Line: MIN -3   O/U: 44.5
I was tempted to go with the Turkey Day Lions on Thursday, but I'm on the Viking Train. I think Case Keenum, Adam Thielen and company will outlast the Lions with some help from the Minnesota defense.

Chargers 21, Cowboys 17 (4:30 PM, CBS)
Line: LAC -2.5   O/U: 47.5
After absolutely destroying Nathan Peterman (who should not have been starting over Tyrod Taylor) in a rout of Buffalo last week, I think the Chargers will keep that momentum going against the struggling Cowboys.

Giants 14, Washington 24 (8:30 PM, NBC)
Line: WAS -7.5   O/U: 44.5
The Giants shocked the Chiefs last week, while Washington lost its second game in a row. However, I'm not taking the momentum route in this one. I think Washington pulls away from New York on Thanksgiving night.


Some Players I Like in Fantasy on Thanksgiving
Players I like Thursday who aren't obvious starts

Quarterback
Case Keenum, Vikings (@ DET)
Case has turned into an above-average starting quarterback. He has thrown for 2,194 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games this season, and he plays a below-average passing defense Thursday in Detroit.

Running Back
Samaje Perine, Washington (vs. NYG)
With both Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson out for the season, Perine is now the workhorse in Washington. Last week, he 117 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and Thursday he faces a the third-worst rush defense in the NFL.

Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder, Washington (vs. NYG)
With receiving options Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Chris Thompson all out, Crowder is now the number one option in the passing game for Washington. Last week, he caught seven passes for 72 yards.

Tight End
Evan Engram, Giants (@ WAS)
Out of all of the tight ends playing on Thursday, Engram is the top option. Even after a very quiet game last week, Engram is still a must-start due to his volume and role in the depleted Giant offense.

Defense
San Diego Chargers (@ DAL)
The Dallas offense has been sputtering recently, scoring a total of 16 points combined the last two games. Los Angeles's opportunistic defense scored two touchdowns last week against Buffalo.

Stats and Info via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders as of Wednesday Evening

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Fantasy Football Week 11 Preview (and Picks)

Before I begin with my players to watch in fantasy football this week, a few things: First, I am saddened to tell you that the playoff hopes of the Red Hot Jabrilli Peppers (3-7) and Delanie Walker Texas Ranger (3-7) have died. For the first time in my fantasy career (I think), I will miss the playoffs. And I'll do so in two of my three leagues. Rest In Peace. On a happier note, I would like to thank Jared Goff and Robert Woods for propelling me to victory in my other league (helping The Real Slim Shady improve to 5-5) and for winning me money in daily fantasy. Lastly, I have added the kicker position to the Top Performers section, because they are people too (plus, Greg the Leg is averaging more fantasy points than some starting quarterbacks). That is all.


Top Performers of Week 10
QB: Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. MIA)
21-35, 254 yards passing, 4 TD;  5 carries, 95 yards rushing

RB: Mark Ingram, Saints (@ BUF)
21 carries, 131 yards rushing, 3 TD

WR: Robert Woods, Rams (vs. HOU)
8 catches, 171 yards receiving, 2 TD

TE: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (@ ARI)
6 catches, 27 yards, 2 TD

D/ST: Atlanta Falcons (vs. DAL)
7 points allowed, 233 yards allowed, 8 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries

K: Greg Zuerlein, Rams (vs. HOU)
FG: 4-4 (27 yards, 33 yards, 50 yards, 33 yards)  XP: 3-3

Picks

Record:
Last Week: 9-4   vs. Spread: 7-6   O/U: 8-5
Season: 83-52   vs. Spread: 64-66-4   O/U: 66-64-2

Sunday
Jaguars 28, Browns 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: JAC -7.5   O/U: 37
Lions 35, Bears 20 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: DET -3   O/U: 41
Ravens 17, Packers 10 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: BAL -2   O/U: 38
Buccaneers 17, Dolphins 19 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: TB -1   O/U: 41.5
Rams 33, Vikings 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MIN -2.5   O/U: 45.5
Washington 21, Saints 35 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: NO -7.5   O/U: 51.5
Chiefs 32, Giants 14 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Line: KC -10   O/U: 46
Cardinals 24, Texans 16 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Line: HOU -2   O/U: 37.5
Bills 17, Chargers 21 (4:05 PM, FOX)
Line: LAC -5.5   O/U: 41
Bengals 17, Broncos 14 (4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: DEN -2.5   O/U: 38
Patriots 28, Raiders 35 (Mexico, 4:25 PM, CBS)
Line: NE -7.5   O/U: 54.5
Eagles 38, Cowboys 21 (8:30 PM, NBC)
Line: PHI -5.5   O/U: 48
Monday
Falcons 31, Seahawks 28 (8:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: SEA -2.5   O/U: 45


Fantasy Football Players I Like This Week
Players I like this week who aren't obvious starts

Quarterback
Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. NE)
Carr hasn't been as successful this season as he was last season, but he has still been a quality quarterback. Plus, the Raiders are coming off a bye week (meaning everybody's well-rested), and New England owns the league's worst pass defense (287 yards allowed per game).

Alex Smith, Chiefs (@ NYG)
After a scorching start to the season, Smith has come back down to earth a bit, but this week he gets the 1-8 Giants, who have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL (268 yards allowed per game) and just surrendered 288 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Beathard.

Jay Cutler, Dolphins (vs. TB)
Cutler is never a great fantasy option, but he's been playing decently, and Sunday he plays a Tampa Bay team that ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense (266 yards allowed per game). With talented weapons in Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, Cutler could have a lot of success this weekend.

Running Back
Jay Ajayi, Eagles (@ DAL)
Since coming over from Miami, Ajayi has become Philadelphia's number one back. Last week, Ajayi took eight handoffs for 77 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have said that they're going to give Ajayi more work, and he could turn that added work into more production this week.

Duke Johnson Jr., Browns (vs. JAX)
Jacksonville's pass defense is airtight, but its rushing defense is a weak spot. The Jaguars rank 25th in the NFL against the run (120.7 yards allowed per game). While Isaiah Crowell was the more productive back last week, expect Duke to get lots of work running and catching the ball in the bad weather.

Chris Thompson, Washington (@ NO)
Rob Kelley was put on IR this week, and Jordan Reed and Terrelle Pryor have been ruled out. That means the playmaking Thompson will see more action on Sunday (both on the ground and through the air) in what could turn into a high-scoring game.

Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker, Dolphins (vs. TB)
Parker had been pretty productive this season when healthy, and this week he should continue the high production against Tampa Bay. As I noted when talking about Jay Cutler, the Buccaneers rank 29th in the league in pass defense, so Parker should be in for another solid game.

Marqise Lee, Jaguars (@ CLE)
Lee is Jacksonville's clear number one receiver, and the number two pass-catcher (Allen Hurns) has been ruled out for this game. The weather could limit his production, but he should get plenty of looks against Cleveland's porous pass defense.

Dontrelle Inman, Bears (vs. DET)
The Chicago offense hasn't been a paradise for receivers this season, but Inman has stepped in and become the leading target. Last week, in his first game for the Bears, Inman six passes for 88 yards. This week, he goes up against Detroit's 25th-ranked pass defense.

Tight End
Austin Hooper, Falcons (@ SEA)
Hooper has been the second most productive receiver for the Falcons this season, and he's seen six targets in each of the last three games. Seattle's pass defense is solid, but the Seahawks haven't been as stout against tight ends. Hooper could be in for a productive Monday night.

Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. NE)
Cook leads the Raiders in receiving yards this season. Before the bye, he caught eight passes for 126 yards (his second game of over 100 yards this year). I've already talked about New England, which struggles mightily against the pass. Cook will find room on Sunday.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (@ CLE)
This is the weekly "tight end playing Cleveland". Lewis has seen 11 total targets the last two games, and if he's healthy (he is currently questionable for Sunday's game), he will probably find the end zone at least once against the Browns, as most tight ends do.

Defense
Kansas City Chiefs (@ NYG)
Kansas City's defense hasn't been among the best this season, but it is still a solid defense. The floundering New York Giants rank near the bottom of the league in offense, and they just gave San Francisco its first win of the season last week.

Cincinnati Bengals (@ DEN)
Cincinnati's defense ranks in the top half of the league, but the main reason I've listed the Bengals here is because they play our good friend Brock Osweiler. In two starts this season, Osweiler has thrown three interceptions. Denver's offense in general has been stagnant recently.

Cleveland Browns (vs. JAX)
The word "Cleveland" and "Browns" may be turnoffs, but a few things are working in Cleveland's favor. First, the Browns defense has been above average. Second, Leonard Fournette and Allen Hurns are out Sunday. Third, the weather may not be conducive to a lot of offense.

Stats and information via ESPN.com

Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com

Lines and Over/Unders as of Saturday Afternoon


To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)

Week 12 College Football Picks

Last weekend was an eventful one in college football. Number one and number three went down, and number two and number four had to sweat out victories. This part of the college football season is kind of like a hurricane. After a few crazy weeks, we're in the eye of the hurricane this weekend, but we won't be in it for long. Even with what looks to be an uneventful week for some of the top teams, there are still some intriguing matchups.


Play of Week 11: "Boise State Bounce"

Boise State looked dead in the water last Saturday night at Colorado State. The Broncos were down 52-38 with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Brett Rypien threw a touchdown pass to bring them within a touchdown with 1:41 on the clock, but the Broncos would need to successfully execute an onside kick. They decided to fake it to one side, then Joel Velazquez put the kick just in the right spot, bouncing it over a Colorado State player and right into the hands of a Boise State player. Boise State would go on to score another touchdown and then win it in overtime. As Pat McAfee would say, this is good for the brand.


(Mis)Play of Week 11: "High Tide"

Mississippi State came so close to being the iceberg that sank Alabama. The Bulldogs were up 24-17 with under five minutes to play. After Alabama tied it, Mississippi State had a chance to go win it following a missed field goal from Crimson Tide kicker Andy Pappanastos with just over two minutes remaining. The Bulldogs were forced to punt with under a minute remaining, and just had to hold Alabama for about 50 seconds. They were unable to do that, as the Tide scored with 25 seconds remaining. Mississippi State got two final shots at the end zone (since a penalty was called on Alabama during the first Hail Mary), but Nick Fitzgerald's second Hail Mary throw didn't give anyone a chance to catch it, as it was heaved out of the back of the end zone.


Performance of Week 11: 

Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma (vs. TCU)

23 carries, 151 yards rushing, 2 TD; 5 catches, 139 yards receiving, 2 TD

Baker Mayfield is the favorite to win the Heisman, but it was his backfield mate who dismantled TCU's defense last weekend. Anderson, who has been plagued by injuries the last two years, secured over 100 rush yards for the fourth straight games, and matched his two touchdowns on the ground with two scores (and over 100 yards) through the air.

Picks

Record
Last Week: 12-4   vs. Spread: 8-7-1   O/U: 9-6-1
Season: 155-40   vs. Spread: 86-83-3   O/U: 80-91-1

Mercer 3, #1 Alabama 52 (Noon, SECN)
It's cupcake week for the SEC, and it starts with Alabama, which reclaimed the number one spot after Auburn blew out Georgia. The Crimson Tide almost suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday against Mississippi State, but they shouldn't be in any danger of suffering their first loss against Mercer, a 5-5 FCS team. It's a glorified bye week for the SEC's top teams.

Virginia 17, #3 Miami 31 (Noon, ABC)
Line: MIAMI -9   O/U: 50.5
The U might be back. The Hurricanes made a statement last Saturday night when they whooped Notre Dame, but Miami still hasn't played a really good team outside of Hard Rock Stadium. That won't happen this week, but Miami still can't overlook the 6-4 Cavaliers. The Canes (as they've done on multiple occasions this season) may make it close, but they should get the win.

#24 Michigan 21, #5 Wisconsin 28 (Noon, FOX)
Line: WISC -7.5   O/U: 40.5
This weekend's lone battle between ranked teams is a monumental game in the Big Ten. Unbeaten Wisconsin, fresh off a thumping of Iowa, hosts the Wolverines, who seem to have finally found an offense with Brandon Peters at quarterback. This will be Wisconsin's toughest test so far, but I think home-field advantage will propel the Badgers to victory.

Louisiana Monroe 10, #6 Auburn 48 (Noon, ESPN2)
Line: AUBURN -36.5   O/U: 68
Auburn, unlike Alabama, actually plays an FBS team this week, but it's still a glorified bye week for the Tigers. Last week's 40-17 whacking of Georgia was a statement win for Auburn, and now the Tigers are probably looking ahead to the Iron Bowl next week against Alabama. The 4-5 UL-Monroe Warhawks pose very little threat against the team whose battle cry is (for some reason) "War Eagle".

#12 TCU 52, Texas Tech 42 (Noon, FS1)
Line: TCU -6   O/U: 53.5
The Horned Frogs will look to pick themselves up off the floor after Oklahoma knocked them out last week. A trip to Lubbock won't be the most relaxing vacation for TCU, which must win its last two games to secure a spot in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders could give the Frogs a bit of a challenge, but TCU should be able to pull away.

#15 UCF 45, Temple 32 (Noon, ESPNU)
Line: UCF -13.5   O/U: 55.5
UCF, the third of the three remaining unbeatens, will look to avoid getting tripped up by a hot Temple team when the Knights travel to Philadelphia Saturday. After two straight losses, the Owls have bounced back with wins over Navy and Cincinnati. I could see a game similar to when UCF played Navy, where Temple keeps it close, but Central Florida pulls away in the end.

#16 Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 13 (Noon, CBS)
Line: MISSST -13   O/U: 57.5
Unlike Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi State, which almost knocked off the Tide last weekend, actually play a team in a Power Five conference this Saturday. However, that Power Five team isn't much of a threat. A week after beating Coastal Carolina (a team that's currently 1-9) by one point, the 4-6 Razorbacks got trounced, 33-10, by LSU. Miss State should cruise.

SMU 28, #21 Memphis 42 (Noon, ESPNN)
Line: MEMP -12.5   O/U: 71.5
It may fly under the radar, but this game is an important one in the AAC race. If Memphis wins out, it will play UCF in the conference championship. But first, the 8-1 Tigers (who haven't played in two weeks) must get past SMU, a team coming off close losses to Central Florida and Navy. I think the host Tigers will pick up right where they left off.

Minnesota 17, #23 Northwestern 30 (Noon, BTN)
Line: NWEST -7   O/U: 40.5
Northwestern looks to extend its five-game winning streak to six on Saturday when the Wildcats host Minnesota. During that win streak, Northwestern has gone to overtime three times. The Golden Gophers made it close against Michigan State and Iowa, so they might be able to make it close here. In the end, though, I think the host Wildcats take care of business.


The Citadel 0, #2 Clemson 42 (12:20 PM, ACCN)
The number two team in the country, like the number one team, has a cupcake this weekend. The Tigers play The Citadel, a 5-5 FCS team. The ACC Championship Game matchup has already been determined, as Clemson will play Miami in Charlotte on December 2. The Tigers shouldn't have much trouble up until that point.


Illinois 14, #9 Ohio State 62 (3:30 PM, ABC)
Line: OHIOST -41   O/U: 53.5
The Buckeyes followed up an ugly loss to Iowa with a drubbing of Michigan State, keeping their slim Playoff hopes alive. Ohio State fans are already looking ahead to The Game next week, and for good reason. Illinois is 2-8, and hasn't won since September 9. Ohio State will be looking to continue its strong play from last week, and I expect the Buckeyes to run away with the Illibuck.


#4 Oklahoma 49, Kansas 3 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: OKLA -37   O/U: 70.5
Number four Oklahoma doesn't play an FCS team this week, but Kansas might as well be one. The Jayhawks are 1-9 this season (after winning two games last season), their only win coming at the beginning of the season against Southeast Missouri State. Expect Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the Sooner offense to shred Kansas to pieces.


Kentucky 14, #7 Georgia 38 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: UGA -21.5   O/U: 51.5
After suffering its first loss of the season last weekend, Georgia will look to get back in the win column when it hosts Kentucky Saturday. The Bulldogs must be weary of the 7-3 Wildcats, who are coming off a 23-point victory at Vanderbilt last week. I expect Georgia to be ready to play, and I think the dangerous tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will run all over Kentucky.


Navy 30, #8 Notre Dame 42 (3:30 PM, NBC)
Line: ND -17.5   O/U: 58.5
Notre Dame, like Georgia, will try to pick up the pieces after a bad loss last weekend. The Irish host Navy, a dangerous team coming off a hard-fought win against SMU. I think the Midshipmen will keep it close with their triple option offense, but I fully expect Notre Dame to come out with a bounce-back victory in South Bend.


Kansas State 27, #13 Oklahoma State 44 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Line: OKLAST -19.5   O/U: 65
Oklahoma State, fresh off a big win over Iowa State, hosts 5-5 Kansas State Saturday afternoon. This will probably be a shootout (as most games involving these teams are), and Kansas State, which lost a close one to West Virginia last week, could make things interesting. However, I think Mason Rudolph and company will pull away from the Wildcats. 


Nebraska 10, #10 Penn State 48 (4:00 PM, FS1)
Line: PSU -26   O/U: 55.5
After suffering two losses in a row, Penn State got back in the win column with a rout of lowly Rutgers last week. The Nittany Lions host another below-average Big Ten team this weekend. 4-6 Nebraska got walloped by Minnesota, 54-21, last Saturday. I expect the host Nittany Lions to give the Cornhuskers a similar result this Saturday.


Maryland 17, #17 Michigan State 35 (4:00 PM, FOX)
Line: MICHST -16   O/U: 43
After being embarrassed by Ohio State last weekend, Michigan State returns home to play Maryland Saturday afternoon. The 4-6 Terrapins are not playing well, having lost four of their last five games. This is exactly the kind of matchup the Spartans want in their attempt to bounce back this week. I think they won't have a problem doing just that.


#20 LSU 38, Tennessee 20 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
Line: LSU -15.5   O/U: 45.5
Tennessee, now headed by Brady Hoke, will probably see its troubles continue Saturday when it hosts LSU. After firing Butch Jones, the Volunteers got routed by Missouri, 51-17, last week. That doesn't bode well against Ed Orgeron's team, which has won four of its last five (two against ranked teams). Expect Tennessee's struggles to continue Saturday night.


#19 NC State 21, Wake Forest 28 (7:30 PM, ESPNU)
Line: WAKE -1.5   O/U: 63
There aren't a whole lot of enticing matchups this weekend, but Saturday night gives us a potential one between two solid ACC teams. Both teams have challenged top teams (Wake Forest lost by 14 to Clemson and 11 to Notre Dame, while NC State lost by seven to Clemson). I'll go with the host Demon Deacons in what could be a hotly-contested battle.


UCLA 28, #11 USC 45 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Line: USC -16   O/U: 71.5
Saturday night's primetime ABC game features two potential first round draft picks at quarterback. Josh Rosen's Bruins bounced back from two straight losses with a win over Arizona State last week, but Sam Darnold's Trojans, who have won three in a row, are definitely the better team, and are playing at home. Rosen can only do so much.


California 21, #22 Stanford 34 (8:00 PM, FOX)
Line: STNFRD -15.5   O/U: 55.5
The FOX primetime game could turn into an interesting one out West. Both teams are coming off wins following losses, but while Cal beat lowly Oregon State, Stanford stuck a fork in the Pac-12's Playoff hopes by beating Washington. I think the Cardinal, led by Heisman candidate Bryce Love, will wear down the Bears.


Air Force 14, #25 Boise State 38 (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
Line: BOISE -17.5   O/U: 57
The Blue Field Broncos have found their way back into the Top 25 after a comeback overtime victory in Colorado last week. After losing two of its first four games, Boise State has won six in a row. Air Force, which has lost its last two, will have a really hard time stopping the streaking Broncos in Boise Saturday night.


Utah 24, #18 Washington 42 (10:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: WASH -17.5   O/U: 46.5
The night ends (as it usually does) with some #Pac12AfterDark, as Washington looks to keep its Pac-12 Championship hopes alive against Utah. Both teams are coming off losses, but the reeling Utes have four of their last five. I kept believing in the Utes, and they kept letting me down. So I'm going to go with the host Huskies in this one.

Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Morning

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter (you can also find me on Twitter @G_Tingley)