Week 11 NFL Picks

Last week was rough. Not only did I not get the weekly analysis done again, I went 5-8 to bring my overall record to 54-34. Let's hope for a much better week. I'm going to blame last week on the fact that it was the Browns' bye week. Now for this week's picks:

Browns (4-5) over Bengals (6-4) (Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00, CBS)

Believeland! This is the first time in a long time where the Battle of Ohio has division title and playoff implications. The Browns are coming off a bye week just one and a half games behind the Bengals for first place in the AFC North. The Bengals are struggling, coming off an overtime loss to Baltimore a week after an overtime loss to Miami. The Bengals have come back from early deficits in both games only to lose. Andy Dalton has been a little inconsistent, while Browns quarterback Jason Campbell ha been solid, playing the best football of his career. A big key matchup that everyone will be watching will be between A.J. Green and Joe Haden, a battle won by Haden last time. I think Haden wins the matchup again, and Cleveland wins the game again in a close one.

Bills (3-7) over Jets (5-4) (New York at Buffalo, 1:00, CBS)

I know what you're probably thinking; "Are you crazy, Grant!? The Jets are much better than the Bills!" Or maybe you're not thinking that at all. Either way, the Jets have impressed and are in playoff contention after beating New England and New Orleans before a bye week last week. The Bills, meanwhile, have been sputtering, losing three straight games despite getting quarterback E.J. Manuel back last week, who looked shaky in his return. I just feel like going with the Bills here, and I think Manuel will fare much better in his second week back. Bills in a nail-biter.

Bears (5-4) over Ravens (4-5) (Baltimore at Chicago, 1:00, CBS)

The Bears have had to deal with key injuries. The Ravens have had to deal with unproductivity. Yet both are still in playoff contention. Jay Cutler got injured again last week in a close loss to the Lions, but backup Josh McCown has played well, and I think Chicago will be fine. The Ravens pulled off a big win against Cincinnati last week, but almost lost it, and continued to get nothing out of Ray Rice. In my opinion, the Bears have looked much better than the Ravens, and really could've won that game last week. I think the Bears cruise past the Ravens.

Eagles (5-5) over Redskins (3-6) (Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00, FOX)

I knew the Eagles would get back on track, and they definitely have. They've won two in a row behind the likes of Nick Foles, who's thrown 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions in four starts this season, and LeSean McCoy, the NFL's leading rusher, along with Foles' favorite targets, Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson. Washington let the Vikings beat them last week, dropping to 3-6, yet still in the NFC East race. Their defense can't stop anyone, although their offense, led by Alfred Morris and an improving Robert Griffin III, has been decent. I don't care about Philly's troubles at home (10-game home losing streak), they can tear up Washington's awful defense (31st ppg, 27th ypg) anywhere, and I think they will.

Lions (6-3) over Steelers (3-6) (Detroit at Pittsburgh, 1:00, FOX)

The Lions are a very good team this year, are coming off a big win against the Bears, and are in first place. The Steelers are a very bad team (in my opinion), but coming off a win over the Bills and still in the AFC North race. Calvin Johnson continues to obliterate opposing defenses, leading the NFL in receiving yards per game and tied for second in touchdown catches. They also have the versatile Reggie Bush and a formidable defensive front. Although rookie Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh run game has been better, I don't think they'll get much going against Detroit, and I think Calvin Johnson will be Calvin Johnson, and the Lions offense will tear apart the Steelers.

Falcons (2-7) over Buccaneers (1-8) (Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00, FOX)

Ugh. These are two very bad teams, and it was hard to pick which one could win. The Falcons haven't won a game since four weeks ago, when they beat the team they play this week. The Bucs dropped to 1-8 after a win against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football in the battle for the worst record in football with the Jaguars after Jacksonville took a misstep by beating Tennessee Sunday. This will be an ugly game, and I suggest you to avoid watching it. Atlanta has more talent, so I'm going with them.

Cardinals (4-4) over Jaguars (1-8) (Arizona at Jacksonville, 1:00, FOX)

Let's just use this space to commemorate the Jacksonville Jaguars' first win of the season (and coach Gus Bradley's first career win) last week against the Titans in a high-scoring 29-27 game. Enjoy that moment, Jacksonville. You probably won't get another one. The Cardinals, with a very good defense and explosive running back Andre Ellington (who is somehow still getting less carries than ineffective starter Rashard Mendenhall), are on a two-game win streak and in the playoff hunt. The Cards should rout the Jaguars, but the Jags may make it somewhat close.

Texans (2-7) over Raiders (3-6) (Oakland at Houston, 1:00, CBS)

This is another "ugh" game. The Raiders offense has been anemic, and it might be almost nonexistent with Matt McGloin starting in place of the injured Terrelle Pryor this week. They lost to the Giants last week and have not won a road game this season. My boy Case Keenum and the Texans couldn't get past the Cardinals last week, dropping their seventh straight game. They also cut offseason signee Ed Reed and placed Arian Foster on IR. But Case continues to show signs of potential, Ben Tate is a more-than-serviceable backup, and coach Gary Kubiak returns this week. The Texans should dispatch the Raiders.

Chargers (4-5) over Dolphins (4-5) (San Diego at Miami, 4:05, CBS)

In the wake of a bullying scandal, the Dolphins lost to the then-winless Bucs last Monday, and it seems they are headed downhill fast. The Chargers dropped one against Denver last week, but they still have Phillip Rivers at the helm and an explosive offense. This could be a relatively high-scoring game (as many Chargers games are), and I think the Chargers can surge past the scuffling Dolphins.

Saints (7-2) over 49ers (6-3) (San Francisco at New Orleans, 4:25, FOX)

This will be an exciting game between two NFC powerhouses. The Niners held te Panthers to 10 points last week but still lost, while the Saints lit up Dallas last Sunday night. The 49ers have a great defense, but the Saints have a great offense. This will come down to Drew Brees and the Saints offense against Aldon Smith and the Niners defense, as well as how well Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense fare against the Saints' underrated defense. I think the Saints' prolific offense will come out on top in a game that might not be close.

Packers (5-4) over Giants (3-6) (Green Bay at New York, 4:25, FOX)

The Giants have won three in a row against backup quarterbacks and injured starters, but Scott Tolzien played decent in a loss to the Eagles last week and now has a week of preperation under his belt. Eli and the Giants look much better, but their wins aren't overly impressive and they still have shortcomings. However, I do think Andre Brown will perform well again this week (at least I hope so; I'm starting him on my fantasy team this week), but turnovers are still a problem, and I just think Scott Tolzien, Eddie Lacy, and the Pack will get past the Giants in what may be close.

Seahawks (9-1) over Vikings (2-7) (Minnesota at Seattle, 4:25, FOX)

After a couple of close wins against bad teams, te Seahawks reiterated their dominance with a trouncing of the Falcons. Although the Vikings are coming off a win, it was against the Redskins' lowly defense, and Adrian Peterson is their only weapon (besides rookie return man Cordarralle Patterson). Seattle is much better on defense and offense, Percy Harvin is returning against his old team, and it's in Seattle. This has all te makings of a Seahawks' drubbing.

Chiefs (9-0) over Broncos (8-1) (Kansas City over Denver, 8:30, NBC)

This is the marquee matchup of the week. Denver's league-best offense against Kansas City's league-best defense. I think Peyton Manning will play like Peyton Manning, and they will score some touchdowns, but Peyton's banged up, and the Chiefs' vaunted D will be coming at him hard. I've heard from many places that the Chiefs are the most underrated 9-0 team ever. It's true, and I think they will silence the critics Sunday night. I like Andy Ried, Jamaal Charles is a dangerous back, and Alex Smith avoids mistakes. I think KC wins what could be a shootout.

Panthers (6-3) over Patriots (7-2) (New England at Carolina, 8:30 Mon. ESPN)

This, like the Saints-49ers game and Broncos-Chiefs game, pits one of the league's best defenses in Carolina, who allowed just nine points to the Niners, against one of the league's best offenses in New England, who scored 55 points against Pittsburgh two weeks ago. I think the defense wins this one. It looked like Tom Brady got back to being typical Tom Brady against the Steelers, but that was a bad Steelers team, and it's one game. I believe in Cam Newton, Luke Kueckly, and the Panthers, and I think they win a defensive game.