Saturday, November 9, 2013

Week 10 NFL Picks

Sorry for not doing a "Week 9 Analysis" last week. Sometimes I'm a busy person. Other than that, I had a pretty good week last week. I went 8-4, moving my overall record to 49-26. I correctly predicted the Chiefs winning with their defense and my Browns winning, and almost correctly predicted a Texans upset of the Colts. Let's hope this week is even better.

Seahawks (8-1) over Falcons (2-6) (Seattle at Atlanta, 1:00, FOX)
The Seahawks got a scare last week against the Bucs before escaping in overtime, while the Falcons continued their dismal season by getting crushed by the Panthers. Matt Ryan has struggled, the running game has been almost non-existent, and they've endured injuries to their top two wide receivers. The good news is it looks like Roddy White will play Sunday after missing three games with a knee injury. But the Seahawks are still much better, with a stout defense, Russell Wilson, and Marshawn Lynch, who is second in the NFL in rushing. They should keep rolling against Atlanta on Sunday.

Lions (5-3) over Bears (5-3) (Detroit at Chicago, 1:00, FOX)
Both of these offensive teams are coming off big wins. Detroit won a thriller against Dallas two weeks ago before having a bye week, and Chicago, behind backup quarterback Josh McCown, beat the Packers on Monday night. Josh McCown has been solid in relief of Jay Cutler, but it looks like Cutler will come back and start this week after missing time with a groin injury. Matthew Stafford and the Calvin Johnsons are well rested coming off a bye week and ready to keep moving towards a division title. I think they'll take another step closer this week in what could be a tight one with the Bears.

Eagles (4-5) over Packers (5-3) (Philadelphia at Green Bay, 1:00, FOX)
The Packers lost not just the game last week, but also star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers is only expected to miss three or four weeks, but for the time being Seneca Wallace will lead Green Bay. He struggled last week, but now he has a week of practice under his belt, plus a healthier James Jones to throw to. The Eagles, on the other hand, have little worry about their quarterback, Nick Foles, who last week tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes vs. the Raiders. He got the Eagles high-flying offense back on track after a couple low-scoring losses. I'm not picking the Eagles completely because Seneca Wallace is starting at quarterback for the Packers. I think he'll do fine, as I could probably do decent with the weapons the Packers have. I'm picking the Eagles because, as I've said before, I believe in the Eagles blur offense, and I also believe Nick Foles, although he probably won't do what he did last week ever again, is a good quarterback.

Titans (4-4) over The Train Wreck That is the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) (Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00, CBS)
Poor Jaguars. Even when they don't play, they lose. The Jags had a bye week last week, but they still lost their best receiver (and arguably their best player), Justin Blackmon, for the year due to a second failed drug test. What little sprinkle of offense they did have is now gone, as they look like they'll win the "Tank For Teddy" sweepstakes (although the Buccaneers are still winless). The Titans, coming off a win over the Rams where Chris Johnson ran for 150 yards, should run all over the Jaguars.

Colts (6-2) over Rams (3-6) (St. Louis at Indianapolis, 1:00, FOX)
I'm going to stop picking against the Colts. They are an elite team, and Andrew Luck always finds a way to win. Luck spoiled my upset pick last week with a second half comeback, so I'm not going to let him spoil anything else. Luck will be just fine without Reggie Wayne, at least as long as T.Y. Hilton keeps producing. I love Rams rookie running back Zac Stacy (out of Vanderbilt), who has run for 261 total yards the last two games, but both of those games were losses, and it's hard to win when you have Kellen Clemens starting at quarterback. The Colts shouldn't need a comeback this week, although the Rams might come out hyped up like the Texans last week and keep it close for a while.

Raiders (3-5) over Giants (2-6) (Oakland at New York, 1:00, CBS)
The Giants are on a two-game winning streak and coming off a bye week. It looks like they're headed in the right direction after starting the season 0-6. The Raiders, meanwhile, look like their headed in the wrong direction after getting lit up by Nick Foles and the Eagles last week. Both their starting quarterback (Terrelle Pryor) and starting running back (Darren McFadden) were injured in that game, but Pryor will play This week and backup running back Rashad Jennings ran for 176 yards after replacing McFadden last week. I'm not at all sure about this pick, but I'm going to go with Pryor and the Raiders over Eli and the Giants.

Bills (3-6) over Steelers (2-6) (Buffalo at Pittsburgh, 1:00, CBS)
The Steelers are awful this year. I've been saying that all season. Their quarterback is aging and breaking down, their rush defense is ranked 31st in the NFL, and they gave up 55 points to New England last week. The Bills lost to the unbeaten Chiefs last week due to costly turnovers and an inexperienced quarterback. Kansas City scored all of their points on defense and special teams. The good news is that rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel, who injured his knee against Cleveland in week five, will return and start Sunday. That doesn't bode well for the faltering Steelers, as I think Manuel gets the victory in his return.

Bengals (6-3) over Ravens (3-5) (Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00, CBS)
The defending champions have struggled, with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice being much less productive than a year ago. They're coming off a loss to Cleveland and hoping to salvage their season. The Bengals are in first place in the division, but they are coming off a painful loss and are very banged up. However, they still have weapons such as A.J. Green and Gio Bernard (even though he's a little banged up). I want to pick the Ravens in this one, and I want the Ravens to win it, because the Browns are chasing Cincinnati in the AFC North race. But Cincinnati is a better team and I think they should win this game.

49ers (6-2) over Panthers (5-3) (Carolina at San Francisco, 4:05, FOX)
The Panthers are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, winning four in a row after a shaky start. Cam Newton has lived up to the nickname "Superman", throwing for seven touchdowns and just two interceptions during the streak. Although both teams have athletic quarterbacks and good offenses, I think this will be a defensive game between two of the best defenses in the NFL. I believe the Panthers are a very good, much improved team, but I think the Niners D comes out on top.

Texans (2-6) over Cardinals (4-4) (Houston at Arizona, 4:25, CBS)
I'm still on the Case Keenum bandwagon. He tore it up for a half last week before faltering in a loss to the Colts, but I have a feeling that might have has something to do with the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak had a mini-stroke at halftime. Kubiak will not coach this week, though he might be back next week. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will be the interim head coach. Some bad news for the Texans: running back Arian Foster will be out for the season, but I think Ben Tate will do well. The Cardinals are coming off a win where rookie running back Andre Ellington ran for 154 yards. But starter Rashard Mendenhall, whose been ineffective, will be back this week, taking carries away from the explosive Ellington. I think Keenum and the Texans will storm past the Cards.

Broncos (7-1) over Chargers (4-4) (Denver at San Diego, 4:25, CBS)
The Broncos, like the Texans, will be without their head coach, but for a longer period of time. John Fox had heart surgery last week, and offensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will take over on an interim basis. Denver is coming off a bye week, while San Diego is coming off an overtime loss to Washington that saw them almost win it with a touchdown in the final minute of the fourth quarter, then after the touchdown was overturned, fail to get in the end zone. Phillip Rivers, aside from that, has been exceptional, and this will be a battle of elite quarteebacks with lethal weapons, like rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Danny Woodhead for the Chargers, and wide receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas, and running back Knowshon Moreno for the Broncos. Even without John Fox, I think Peyton Manning an the Broncos have the weapons to beat the Chargers in what could be a shootout.

Saints (6-2) over Cowboys (5-4) (Dallas at New Orleans, 8:30, NBC)
This will be an explosive Sunday night matchup. It pits two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against each other. Dallas is coming off a last-minute win against Minnesota, while New Orleans is coming off a last-minute loss against the Jets. The Saints have lost two of their last three after starting 5-0, while the Cowboys have won three of the last four. This will be a shootout, and I think Romo and Brees (who are both on my fantasy team) will both put up gaudy passing numbers, but I think the Saints come out with the win in the Superdome.

Dolphins (4-4) over Buccaneers (0-8) (Miami at Tampa Bay, 8:30, ESPN)
This may feel like the makings of the Buccaneers' first win of the season. They're coming off a game where they almost upset the Seahawks before losing in overtime, plus the Dolphins are dealing with the saga of Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin, and will probably be without both offensive lineman Sunday. But remember that the Dolphins beat the Bengals last Thursday, and Tampa is still winless. I think the Fins shrug off the controversy and beat the Bucs in a battle of struggling Florida teams.

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