As I do every year (or at least the last couple of years), I will go over some of the biggest storylines surrounding the NFL Draft, provide some of my opinions and analysis, and give my best crack at predicting the first round (that's right, I'm doing a FULL FIRST ROUND mock draft this year). As always, I would just like to point out that I am by no means a scout, and I do not watch film of any of the prospects. All of my thoughts and feelings on prospects are derived from what actual scouts are saying, how they performed at the combine (and pro days), how they stack up physically, the little I may have seen of them in college, and just what my gut may be telling me (which is nothing, since guts cannot talk). Let us begin.
Top 2018 NFL Draft Storylines
Year of the Quarterback
Signal-callers have been the talk of this year's draft. It's a strong crop of quarterbacks, and as many as six could go in the first round (with as many as four potentially going in the top 10). There seems to be a consensus on who the five best quarterbacks in the class are. The problem is, nobody is completely sure what order those five quarterbacks will go in, and opinions on the passers vary. Let's take a brief look at each:
- Sam Darnold, USC
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| Photo via Cleveland.com |
Summary: Darnold has been tabbed the "safest" quarterback in this class, and many draft "experts" have him as the top quarterback on their boards. The 6'3", 220-pound Californian seems to possess all the traits that make up a franchise quarterback. He has good size, he has good arm strength, he reads the field well, he's athletic (he ran a 4.85 40-yard-dash at the Combine, and had five rushing touchdowns at USC last season), he's accurate (63.1 completion percentage in 2017), he's a leader (as he showed following a visit to the team that owns the first pick), and he had success at a big-time college football program (in two seasons at USC, he went 21-6, won two Pac-12 Championships, and won a Rose Bowl). On the other hand, turnovers were a big problem last season for Darnold (13 interceptions and 11 fumbles). Most scouts and analysts aren't extremely worried about the ball security, as that can be improved, but Darnold did take a step back in 2017 after a stellar 2016, finishing with a lower completion percentage, less touchdown passes, and a lot more turnovers.
My Take: I like Darnold, and I think he has the tools to succeed in the NFL. He reminds me a bit of Andrew Luck, another much-heralded quarterback from California. I don't love Darnold, however. While I think the ball security issues can be fixed, I am a bit concerned that he regressed last season. He also doesn't have the prettiest throwing motion (I like pretty throwing motions, because I like pretty things), and I saw him struggle first-hand against Ohio State's elite defense in the Cotton Bowl. Overall, I don't think Darnold has the highest upside of the quarterback prospects in this draft class, but I do think he has a pretty high floor, and I think he will be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL.
- Josh Allen, Wyoming
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| Photo via NewYorkUpstate.com |
Summary: Josh Allen is a pure boom-or-bust prospect. There is a lot to like about him, but there are also some major red flags. He could be the next Ben Roethlisberger, or he could be the next Jake Locker. What are the red flags surrounding Allen? His accuracy is a major concern (56.3 completion percentage last season), and he didn't exactly dominate the weaker competition at Wyoming (in the Cowboys' two games against Power 5 schools last year, he threw three interceptions and no touchdowns). But Allen's physical traits are tantalizing. At 6'5", 230 pounds, he has ideal size for a quarterback. His hands are ideal size as well, measuring 10 1/8", giving him the largest hands of this year's top quarterbacks. He's also very athletic for his size (at the Combine, he ran a 4.75 40-yard-dash and registered a vertical jump of 33.5"), and has a cannon for an arm (he can throw the ball 80 yards). For the reasons some people are enthralled with Josh Allen, just go to DraftJoshAllen.com.
My Take: My thoughts regarding Josh Allen are kind of similar to my thoughts regarding candy. There are major red flags, and studies have been done that suggest, "stay away", but I don't care. I am still a big fan. On the NFL comparison scale, I lean more toward Ben Roethlisberger than Jake Locker. Allen has all the tools. He just needs some time to polish those skills. Although he might have a very low floor, I think Josh Allen has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this class, and I think, despite the legitimate concerns, he can reach (or at least come somewhat close to) that ceiling.
- Josh Rosen, UCLA
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| Photo via NJ.com |
Summary: Rosen is a Southern Californian kid from a wealthy family. He might be the most intelligent quarterback in the draft, and that has somehow been used against him. Some people in the league question whether he loves football enough, and the phrase "too smart" has even been tossed around. Another (more legitimate) concern with Rosen is his durability. The 6'4", 220-pound pocket passer has a slight frame, and he got hurt multiple times in college, having shoulder surgery before last season and suffering two concussions during the season. But those are the only major concerns for Rosen, who is widely considered the most pro-ready quarterback in this draft. He showed accuracy and poise in college (in 2017, he completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 3,756 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions), and he has good footwork and mechanics.
My Take: From a personality standpoint, Rosen reminds me a little of Aaron Rodgers, another highly-intelligent and cerebral quarterback from Southern California. Rodgers slid in the draft, and there have been rumblings that Rosen could also slide. I don't think he'll slide that far, because I believe he is pro ready. His durability and small frame concern me, and I don't like his lack of mobility, but I believe he might have the best intangibles of any of the top quarterbacks. Forget "too smart". I think his intelligence, along with his accuracy and pocket poise, will help him become a good NFL quarterback (as long as he can stay on the field).
- Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
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| Photo via SportingNews.com |
Summary: From a production standpoint, Mayfield is the most impressive quarterback prospect in the draft. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner completed 70.5 percent of his passes last year, throwing for 4,340 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just five interceptions (he also ran for five touchdowns, showing his athleticism). However, there are character concerns. Baker is a brash guy, and some of his actions on the field last season did not sit well with some people. He was also arrested last February on charges of public intoxication and fleeing police, and he rubbed some people the wrong way once again when he admitted that he didn't study Chargers playbook very well prior to a pre-draft visit. Another concern is that Mayfield does not have prototypical size (he's "only" 6'1"). Despite the size and immaturity concerns, some scouts and analysts love him. He shredded defenses laden with NFL prospects (Ohio State and Georgia), and analytical sites, like Pro Football Focus, rank him above everyone else.
My Take: You can't dispute the fact that Baker Mayfield is a talented quarterback. But I kind of get Johnny Manziel vibes with him (whether that's fair or not). I've been hurt before, so I'm weary of anyone who's similar to the person who hurt me. I do believe Baker is a much better prospect than Johnny was. His size isn't as much of an issue for me, because guys like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson have succeeded despite not having prototypical size. Baker has the talent to have a successful NFL career, but the character concerns do worry me. He's slowly winning me over, however.
- Lamar Jackson, Louisville
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| Photo via DemocratandChronicle.com |
Summary: Lamar Jackson is undoubtedly the most electrifying quarterback in this draft class. In fact, he might be the most electrifying quarterback prospect since Michael Vick. The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner put up insane numbers at Louisville (albeit against weaker competition). His stats last season? A 59.1 completion percentage, 3,660 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 1,601 rushing yards, and 18 rushing touchdowns. The concern with Jackson, as with any dual-threat, is durability. He's not the biggest guy, and we saw what happened with Robert Griffin III. Another concern is his accuracy, but he is capable of making NFL throws. After some chatter about teams wanting him to move to receiver (which was ridiculous), it sounds like some teams love Jackson as a quarterback.
My Take: I love dual-threat quarterbacks, and I believe Lamar Jackson has the speed and athleticism to be a game-changer. He needs to work on his accuracy and mechanics, but he can sling the ball, and he's very dangerous with his legs. My biggest concern, of course, is whether he can stay healthy. If he can, I think he can be a dangerous dual-threat quarterback.
I could honestly see any one of these quarterbacks finding success in the National Football League, but they also all have weaknesses that could prevent them from becoming good starting quarterbacks in the NFL. It will be interesting to see where they all go and how they all do. If I had to personally rank them, I don't know how it would look. There are things I like (and dislike) about all five of these quarterbacks. But I'll try to personally rank them anyway:
- Josh Allen - I'm infatuated with his physical traits and the flashes of potential he has shown
- Lamar Jackson - If he can improve his passing and stay healthy, he can be the next Mike Vick
- Josh Rosen - When the biggest concern about you is that you're "too smart", that's a good thing
- Sam Darnold - When I think about him, I think, "Good, not great"
- Baker Mayfield - He has the best stats, but I've been burned by a brash college star before
I honestly could see these quarterbacks being ranked in any order,and I could see any of them being a star (or being a bust).
Trades, Trades, Trades
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| Photo via The Cheat Sheet |
Trades are always a major part of the NFL Draft. There were five trades in the first round of last year's draft, and there are sure to be at least a couple in the first round this year. Cleveland GM John Dorsey has said he is open to trading the number one pick, but it's unlikely that happens. There was talk a few weeks ago that the Giants might trade the number two pick to a QB-needy team, but that talk has quieted substantially. The Jets already traded up to number three, and the Colts (now at number six after the trade with New York) are reportedly open to trading down again. The Browns have had conversations about the number four pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they traded down with a team desperate for a quarterback. The Broncos (at number five) and Titans (at number 25) are also said to be willing to trade down. As for teams looking to trade up, there has been plenty of buzz surrounding the Bills (who own the 12th pick and the 22nd pick) and Cardinals (who own the 15th pick), two teams in need of a quarterback. The Patriots, who traded Brandin Cooks for a 1st round pick earlier this offseason, are another team rumored to be interested in trading up for a quarterback (to be the heir to Tom Brady). New England owns the 23rd pick and the 31st pick. I believe the team most likely to trade up is the Bills (they want a quarterback, and they have the assets to move up) and the team most likely to trade down is the Broncos (a quarterback such as Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, or Baker Mayfield could be available at five, and if the Broncos don't take one, another team will probably pay a lot to move up and take one).
Uncertainty at the Top
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| Photo via Akron-Beacon Journal |
Oftentimes, the number one overall pick in the draft is clear. Last year, most people knew the Browns were going to take Myles Garrett first, despite late Mitch(ell) Trubisky rumors. In 2016, just about everyone expected the Rams to go with Jared Goff over Carson Wentz. Same goes for Jameis Winston and Jadeveon Clowney the two years prior. This year, the only thing people seem to be sure of is that the Browns will take a quarterback with the first overall pick (and even that isn't universally agreed upon). Which quarterback they pick is anyone's guess. Names I've heard that Cleveland is reportedly considering include Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. GM John Dorsey and company have played it extremely close to the vest, making it difficult to determine what reports are true and what reports are just smokescreens. Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller summarized it well when he tweeted, "As a draft analyst I hate not knowing who will be picked 1st...but as a draft fan this is pretty awesome." I agree.
GTingles' 2018 NFL Mock Draft
Mock drafts are a futile exercise. I can't tell the future. I can't even do a good job of pretending too, like Shawn Spencer. But I do like a challenge. There will be more than two trades tonight, but I've limited myself to two trades (that's the trade limit of the mock draft contest I'm doing with a couple other guys). Here goes nothing. I will probably be very wrong.
1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
I have no flippin' clue who the Browns will select with the number one overall pick, which is exciting, but also frustrating for someone trying to predict the draft. A lot has happened. Just within the last 48 hours, reports have come out about Cleveland having cooled on Sam Darnold, Josh Allen has had to apologize for offensive tweets from when he was younger, and a report has come out saying that most coaches and GMs expect Baker Mayfield to go first overall. And we still have a few hours left before the draft. I'm going to stick with Allen, because John Dorsey likes mobile quarterbacks with big arms, and the rocket-armed Allen has plenty of upside.
2. New York Giants: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
The popular pick here has been Saquon Barkley, as the Giants have a need at running back, and Barkley has been labeled a generational talent. Bradley Chubb has also been projected here after they traded away Jason Pierre-Paul. If the Browns take Darnold, I think this pick will be Barkley (or Chubb). But I don't think GM Dave Gettleman would pass on Darnold to be his quarterback of the future once Eli Manning (who's 37 years old) is done.
3. New York Jets: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Jets traded up for one position: quarterback. Reports suggest they'll either pick Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen (or Sam Darnold, if he's still available). Although the Mayfield rumors have gotten louder, I think Rosen would be a good fit in New York, and I think that's who the Jets will pick here.
4. Cleveland Browns: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
I could see the Browns trade this pick to a QB-needy team like the Bills, with Denzel Ward and Mike McGlinchey being possible targets following a trade down. But if they stay here, it'll either be Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, who are widely considered two of the three best prospects in the draft (along with Quenton Nelson). Barkley would be another strong addition to Cleveland's revamped offense.
5. Buffalo Bills (via Denver Broncos): Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
The Bills want a quarterback, and they've been calling teams in the top five about trading up. I could see John Elway and the Broncos staying put and taking Baker themselves (I think Elway likes Baker), and I could also see them staying put and taking someone like Bradley Chubb. But I think Buffalo will offer them enough to trade down.
6. Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
If Chubb lasts this long, this is an easy choice. I could also see Chris Ballard and the Colts trading down (again) or taking Quenton Nelson to help protect Andrew Luck. Ballard is in a good position to either accumulate more picks (especially if one of the top four quarterbacks falls to number seven) or grab an elite prospect (there is a high probability that at least one of Chubb, Saquon Barkley, and Quenton Nelson will be available here).
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State
The Bucs need a defensive back, and they'll have plenty to choose from. They could got with someone such as Minkah Fitzpatrick or Denzel Ward, but I've heard Derwin James connected to Tampa Bay more than anyone else.
8. Chicago Bears: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
There isn't a consensus on much in this draft, but if Nelson is still available at eight, everyone expects the Bears to take the top offensive lineman. If not Nelson, I could see a linebacker, such as Roquan Smith, in this spot.
9. San Francisco 49ers: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The Niners are in the market for a defensive back, and I think that defensive back will either be Minkah Fitzpatrick or Ward, the talented corner out of Ohio State (which is #DBU). If not a corner
10. Oakland Raiders: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Oakland will probably go defense, and it could be a defensive back (such as Ward or Fitzpatrick), a linebacker (such as Smith or Tremaine Edmunds), or a lineman (such as Marcus Davenport). If Smith is still available, I think he is the pick.
11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
12. Denver Broncos (via Buffalo Bills): Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
14. Green Bay Packers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
15. Arizona Cardinals: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
16. Baltimore Ravens: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame
18. Seattle Seahawks: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio
19. Dallas Cowboys: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
22. Buffalo Bills: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
23. New England Patriots: Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn
24. Carolina Panthers: Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
25. Tennessee Titans: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
27. New Orleans Saints: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
30. Minnesota Vikings: Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida
31. New England Patriots: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
32. Cleveland Browns (via Philadelphia Eagles): Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Stats via NFL.com and ESPN.com
Follow Head in the Game on Twitter @headingameblog. Also follow me on Twitter @G_Tingley.
Stats via NFL.com and ESPN.com
Follow Head in the Game on Twitter @headingameblog. Also follow me on Twitter @G_Tingley.
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