Week 5 CFB Picks

We are entering the meat of the college football season. This is when conference schedules really start to heat up, and there are some enticing matchups on this weekend's docket. There are battles between ranked teams in the Big Ten (Wisconsin-Michigan), SEC (Tennessee-Georgia), ACC (Louisville-Clemson), and Pac-12 (Stanford-Washington), and many more interesting games.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 52-18

(Home Team Listed Last)

Thursday
Connecticut 21, #6 Houston 48 (8:00 PM, ESPN)
The Cougars have cruised through their first four games (although their only real challenge was the first week vs. Oklahoma), and they don't face another real test (on paper, at least) until a much-anticipated meeting with Louisville November 17. They have to not slip up until then, and they shouldn't against a UConn team that has lost to Navy and Syracuse and beaten Maine and Virginia by a combined six points.
Friday
#7 Stanford 42, #10 Washington 35 (9:00 PM, ESPN)
I still don't really know just how good this Washington team (they did survive a bit of a test at Arizona last week), but I do know Stanford, led by Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey (who has 436 yards rushing and 119 yards recieving thus far), is a tough team. Since this is a late Friday-night Pac-12 contest, expect a wild game, but expect the talented and experienced Cardinal to overtake the Huskies in the end.
Saturday
Rutgers 7, #2 Ohio State 45 (Noon, BTN)
Ohio State has looked mighty impressive thus far (much better than they looked in their 2014 National Championship season), but some injuries are piling up, so it will be interesting to see how the deep Buckeyes respond to those injuries. Rutgers, led by former Ohio State defensive coordinator Chris Ash, is an improved team (they're 2-2 with a blowout loss to Washington and a 14-7 loss to Iowa), but still isn't near the level of Ohio State.
#23 Florida 23, Vanderbilt 3 (Noon, SECN)
The Gators blew a halftime lead at Tennessee last week, and starting quarterback Luke Del Rio, who didn't play last week, probably won't play this week either. However, Florida should bounce back at Vandy, a 2-2 team that got by on the skin of their teeth last week against Western Kentucky (a 31-30 victory). Florida will play better than they did last time they faced the Commodores (a 9-7 victory last season).
#13 Baylor 42, Iowa State 14 (Noon, FS1)
The Bears, despite all of the offseason turmoil off the field, are 4-0, one of those wins being a 35-24 win over Oklahoma State last week. They should be 5-0 after a meeting with a 1-3 Iowa State team. Baylor shouldn't overlook the Cyclones, since the last time these two teams met, the then-#2 Bears fell at home to then-2-4 Iowa State at home, but these are very different teams, and Baylor probably will not trip up this time.
Alcorn State 10, #20 Arkansas 48 (Noon, SECN)
I don't know what Arkansas is doing out here playing FCS schools the fifth week of the season, but I guess maybe I should cut them some slack, since they've already played two ranked teams (at then-#15 TCU in a 41-38 win the second week of the season, and vs. then-#10 Texas A&M last week in a 45-24 loss). Anywho, the Razorbacks shouldn't face any trouble at home against 1-2 Alcorn State on Saturday.
#22 Texas 45, Oklahoma State 48 (Noon, ABC)
This looks to be a solid matchup between two Big 12 teams who've suffered warts this season. Texas lost their last game, two weeks ago against California, and their one marquee win (a 50-47 overtime win the first week against Notre Dame) doesn't look nearly as good now that the Fighting Irish are 1-3, and while 2-2 Oklahoma State is also coming off a loss (35-24 last week at Baylor), They are more than capable and have home-field advantage.
#14 Miami 38, Georgia Tech 24 (Noon, ESPN2)
Georgia Tech face a second straight top-15 team after suffering their first loss last week against Clemson (26-7), and they could cause some headaches with their triple-option offense, but Brad Kaaya (694 yards passing, seven touchdowns, three interceptions) and the Hurricanes. The 'Canes have only played Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Appalachian State, but still, they've only allowed a combined 23 points.
North Carolina 32, #12 Florida State 45 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
The 3-1 Tar Heels may give Florida State a challenge on Saturday afternoon, but after getting smoked by Louisville and struggling against South Florida last week in a 20-point win, Jimbo Fisher will be expecting a much better performance out of the likes of Deondre Francois (951 yards passing, seven touchdowns, two interceptions), Dalvin Cook (498 yards rushing, four touchdowns), and Travis Rudolph (233 yards receiving, three touchdowns).
#8 Wisconsin 28, #4 Michigan 40 (3:30 PM, ABC)
If not for the Louisville-Clemson game, this one would definitely be the game of the week. Even so, it's a top ten matchup between Big Ten teams. The Badgers boast wins over LSU and Michigan State, which are impressive victories, but LSU just fired their head coach, and Michigan State is definitely not the playoff team they were last season. The Wolverines face their first real test this weekend, and they have the talent and coaching to pass it with flying colors.
Illinois 13, #15 Nebraska 35 (3:30 PM, ESPN2)
Nebraska, led by Tommy Armstrong Jr. (931 yards passing, eight touchdowns, one interception; 281 yards rushing, four touchdowns), have been a pleasant surprise, storming into the top 15 after a 4-0 start highlighted by a Week 3 victory over Oregon. They should cruise at home against the 1-2 Fighting Illini, who are coming off a bye week after two straight losses (to North Carolina and Western Michigan)
#11 Tennessee 38, #25 Georgia 28 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Another week, another SEC Top 25 matchup. This week, the Tennessee Volunteers, who finally showed something in a comeback victory over Florida last week after some tense moments against inferior competition the first three weeks, face off against the Georgia Bulldogs, who are coming off a 45-14 loss to Ole Miss. If this were one week ago, I might go with Georgia, but after Tennessee showed up last week, it's definitely the Vols.
#9 Texas A&M 40, South Carolina 17 (4:00 PM, SECN)
The Gamecocks could put a scare into the Aggies, but they aren't what they used to be. They sport losses to Mississippi State and Kentucky, as well as close wins over Vanderbilt and Eastern Carolina. Texas A&M has victories over UCLA and Arkansas, and Trevor Knight (1,055 yards passing, seven touchdowns, two interceptions; 308 yards rushing, five touchdowns) and company should add another win this weekend in South Carolina.
Oklahoma 45, #21 TCU 38 (5:00 PM, FOX)
Oklahoma, who came into the season with high expectations after a College Football Playoff appearance last season, as already lost twice (to Houston and Ohio State), making a repeat appearance highly unlikely. However, the Sooners still have Heisman hopeful Baker Mayfield, and they're playing a TCU team that has lost the only real challenge they've faced so far (a 41-38 loss to Arkansas three weeks ago).
#18 Utah 42, California 38 (6:00 PM, PAC-12)
2-2 California is favored at home over 4-0 Utah, even though they are coming off a 10-point loss at Arizona State. While I do think this will be a nail-biter, but Kyle Wittingham's Utes are undefeated and coming off a 31-27 victory against USC. I could see either of these strong Pac-12 teams winning in Berkeley on Saturday night, but I'll go with Utah in a barn-burner that comes down to the final minutes.
Memphis 24, #16 Ole Miss 38 (7:00 PM)
Ole Miss as a team is a lot like quarterback Chad Kelly as a player. Both show impressive flashes of excellence, but also make back-breaking mistakes. Kelly has 1,235 yards passing and 12 touchdowns, but he's thrown three picks and been sacked nine times. Ole Miss destroyed Georgia last week and had big leads over Florida State and Alabama, but lost those two games. I do think the talented Rebels will beat 3-0 (a weak 3-0) Memphis.
Kentucky 13, #1 Alabama 50 (7:00 PM, ESPN)
There isn't much to talk about here. Kentucky is not good, and Alabama is very, very good. That's all. But I'd like to fill up five lines of text (for the sake of being consistent), so I'll give a bit of a history lesson: The last time Alabama played Kentucky was October 2013, a 48-7 Bama win, and the time before that was October 2009, a 38-20 Bama win. The Wildcats hosted both contest. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.
#19 San Diego State 38, South Alabama 7 (8:00 PM, ESPNN)
San Diego State may finish undefeated. They're 3-0 and play in the the Mountain West. Their toughest opponent remaining is probably Utah State. I don't know how good this San Diego State team actually is, and probably won't unless they lose. They probably won't lose this weekend against South Alabama, who did beat Mississippi State the first week of the season but has also lost to Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette.
#3 Louisville 48, #5 Clemson 35 (8:00 PM, ABC)
Here is the game people have been looking forward to, including myself. It pits two College Football Playoff contenders against each other in Death Valley. It pits the preseason favorite to win the Heisman (Deshaun Watson) against the current Heisman favorite (Lamar Jackson). It also pits an impressive team that has destroyed all four of its opponents (including Florida State) against a team that has struggled so far this season.
#17 Michigan State 35, Indiana 32 (8:00 PM, BTN)
Last Week, Michigan State showed that they are not as they were last season in a blowout loss to Wisconsin. Indiana isn't great, but shouldn't be underestimated (just see the Ohio State game last season). They could conceivably pull off the upset at home in Bloomington, but Mark Dantonio's Spartans, while not as good as last season, are still a solid team, and should be able to escape with the win.
Utah State 28, #24 Boise State 40 (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
Boise State is also not what it used to be, but the Broncos are unbeaten and ranked (with wins over Louisiana-Lafayette, Washington State, and Oregon State). Utah State isn't awful, but they have losses to USC and Air Force, and this game is being played on "Ol' Blue". As a late-night west coast game, anything can and will happen, but in the end, the Boise State Broncos should emerge victorious.