Thursday, September 22, 2016

Week 4 CFB Picks

Last week brought us surprising blowouts (Louisville beat Florida State 63-20, and Ohio State beat Oklahoma 45-24), comebacks (Alabama beat Ole Miss 48-43 after being down 21 at one point, and Michigan was down 21-7 early against Colorado, but came back to win 45-28), near-comebacks (Notre Dame scored the final 14 points versus Michigan State in a 36-28 loss, and Mississippi State did the same in a 23-20 loss to LSU), and upsets (Nebraska over #22 Oregon, and, more notably, North Dakota State over Iowa). Let's hope for more of the same this week.

Last Week: 15-5
Season: 40-14

(Home Team Listed Last)

Thursday
#5 Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 24 (7:30 PM, ESPN)
The defending runner-up has struggled so far, and may have some trouble with Georgia Tech's triple-option attack. However, I think the Tigers, who are more talented than the Yellow Jackets but have underachieved, will survive.
Friday
USC 28, #24 Utah 34 (9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1)
There is some good late-night Pac-12 action this week, starting with this battle between the Trojans, who were ranked at the beginning of the season before losing two of their first three games, and the Utes, who have entered the rankings with a 3-0 start.
Saturday
Kent State 17, #1 Alabama 48 (Noon, SEC Network)
Never underestimate the MAC, but never bet against the mighty Tide. They should have no problem with the 1-2 Golden Flashes after they rallied to beat Ole Miss last weekend. The meat of Alabama's schedule is still two weeks away.
#12 Georgia 28, #23 Ole Miss 30 (Noon, ESPN)
In the first battle of ranked teams this week, Georgia, who beat Nicholls and Missouri by a combined three points, face off against Ole Miss, who is 1-2 due to two blown leads against ranked teams. The Rebels will hold on this time.
#13 Florida State 45, South Florida 17 (Noon, ABC/ESPN3)
The Seminoles, fresh off a shellacking at the hands of Louisville, should fare much better in this intra-state battle against USF, who's 3-0 with solid wins over Northern Illinois and Syracuse. FSU should look more like they did the first two weeks.
#11 Wisconsin 24, #8 Michigan State 37 (Noon, Big Ten Network)
This is the game of the week, a Big Ten showdown between two defensive powerhouses. MSU, though, showed a lot more in a 36-28 win at Notre Dame last week then Wisconsin did in a 23-17 win over Georgia State.
Penn State 27, #4 Michigan 40 (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN3)
The Nittany Lions may stick with the talented Wolverines for a while, but Michigan is number four in the country. They fell behind early last week against Colorado, but turned on the burners and cruised to a victory.
#19 Florida 42, #14 Tennessee 21 (3:30 PM, CBS)
This is a weekend filled with strong SEC matchups. This one might not be as close as the rankings may suggest. Florida has cruised to three victories so far, while Tennessee played close with Appalachian State and Ohio.
#18 LSU 32, Auburn 28 (6:00 PM, ESPN)
LSU hasn't looked great thus far, but they are still very talented. Auburn was within one possession of both Clemson (lost by six) and Mississippi State (lost by seven), but lost both games. Expect another close loss Saturday night.
#6 Houston 48, Texas State 14 (7:00 PM, ESPNU)
The Cougars should blowout Texas State, who got crushed 42-3 by Arkansas last week. After a 10-point victory over Oklahoma in Week 1, Houston has beaten Lamar 42-0 and Cincinnati 40-16. They shouldn't have much of a test until they face Louisville November 17th.
Oklahoma State 42, #16 Baylor 45 (7:30 PM, FOX)
The Cowboys recovered from a heartbreaking loss to Central Michigan with a hard-fought win over Pitt last week. This week they face a Baylor team that has blown by it's first three opponents, but hasn't been tested.
#20 Nebraska 42, Northwestern 28 (7:30 PM, Big Ten Network)
In the battle of the Big Ten "N" teams, Nebraska, led by Taylor Martinez and coming off a 35-32 victory against Oregon, should take care of 1-2 Northwestern, who's lost to Western Michigan and Illinois State (but beat Duke last week).
#7 Stanford 40, UCLA 38 (8:00 PM, ABC)
This will be a fun contest between a team with arguably the best running back in the nation (Christian McCaffrey) and a team with a very talented and impressive young quarterback (Josh Rosen). I give the slight edge to McCaffrey and the Cardinal.
#3 Louisville 52, Marshall 24 (8:00 PM, CBS Sports Network)
The Cardinals are flying high, coming off a trouncing of Florida State. They should continue flying high against the Thundering Herd, who are coming off a 65-38 loss to Akron. Louisville must prepare for another ranked battle next week in Death Valley.
#17 Arkansas 27, #10 Texas A&M 32 (9:00 PM, ESPN)
Yet another battle of ranked SEC teams. The Razorbacks outlasted TCU in Week 2, but other than that, barely beat Louisiana State 21-20, and destroyed Texas State 42-3. The Aggies, meanwhile, sport strong wins over UCLA and Auburn.
#9 Washington 48, Arizona 46 (10:30 PM, Pac-12 Network)
More late-night Pac-12 madness. I still don't know just how good Washington really is (they've played Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State), and I know Arizona isn't amazing, having lost to BYU the first week of the season. Expect a wild game.

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