Thursday, November 19, 2015

CFB Weeky Revew/Preview: One Loss > Unbeaten?

We are entering the most climactic part of the college football season: the last few weeks. Many teams have just two or three (including conference championship games) left, and those games will be vital to determining what bowl they go to, especially since these games will be fresh in the committee's minds. One topic up for debate as we enter this crucial stretch is the ever-present question of whether a one-loss Power 5 conference team should be ranked above an unbeaten Power 5 conference team. Right now, there are two one-loss teams from major conferences (Alabama and Notre Dame) in the top four (Alabama at #2, Notre Dame at #4), while Ohio State (#3), Iowa (#5), and Oklahoma State (#6) all carry unblemished records. Here is the complete Week 12 College Football Playoff Rankings:

  1. Clemson (10-0)
  2. Alabama (9-1)
  3. Ohio State (10-0)
  4. Notre Dame (9-1)
  5. Iowa (10-0)
  6. Oklahoma State (10-0)
  7. Oklahoma (9-1)
  8. Florida (9-1)
  9. Michigan State (9-1)
  10. Baylor (8-1)
  11. Stanford (8-2)
  12. Michigan (8-2)
  13. Utah (8-2)
  14. Florida State (8-2)
  15. LSU (7-2)
  16. Navy (8-1)
  17. North Carolina (9-1)
  18. TCU (9-1)
  19. Houston (10-0)
  20. Northwestern (8-2)
  21. Memphis (8-2)
  22. Ole Miss (7-3)
  23. Oregon (7-3)
  24. USC (7-3)
  25. Wisconsin (8-2)
The reason for putting the one-loss teams in front of the unbeaten ones is simple: strength of schedule and talent level. Iowa's strength of schedule is ranked 61st in the nation (according to ESPN.com), while Oklahoma State has the 55th strongest schedule. Ohio State is ranked 69th in strength of schedule. Conversely, Alabama has the strongest schedule in college football and Notre Dame is 27th. Notre Dame's one loss was on the road against the #1 team in the country, and Alabama's lone loss came early in the season against Ole Miss. Another big factor in the rankings is how talented the teams are perceived to be. Many people think Alabama is the most talented team in the nation, and although they have a loss, they have the talent to beat anyone. Many feel the same way about Notre Dame, especially since they were so close to beating #1 on the road. This is unfortunate for the players and coaches of Iowa and Oklahoma State (and Houston, for that matter), who have done their jobs thus far and can't do anything about their strength of schedule. Of course, if Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship and/or Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, they should be in the Playoff (probably over Notre Dame and/or Ohio State), but right now, despite their pristine records, they're on the outside looking in.


Week 11 Review

Top Games

Saturday was probably a bittersweet day for the Pac-12. There were some very close and entertaining games out west, but the conference's playoff hopes were squashed. In what was a shootout, Oregon had the lead for most of the game thanks in part to three Stanford turnovers and a missed field goal. The Ducks were up 38-30 with just over two minutes left in the fourth quarter when Stanford had its most costly fumble in the Oregon red zone. The Cardinal would get the ball back and score with ten seconds left, but they could not convert the two-point conversion.

In late-night Pac-12 action, Arizona's upset of Utah effectively eliminated the conference from the playoff. Every Pac-12 team now has at least two losses after backup quarterback Jerrard Randall led the Wildcats to a double-overtime victory over the Utes (starter Anu Soloman was injured in the fourth quarter).

In another double-overtime game, Indiana and their high-scoring offense gave Michigan a scare. The Hoosiers took their first lead with 2:52 left in regular time, but then the Wolverines tied it up as time expired. Michigan answered Indiana's touchdown in the first overtime, then scored a touchdown to open up the second overtime. IU got down to the two, but couldn't convert on fourth and goal.


Top Performances

Texas Tech RB DeAndre Washington vs. Kansas State (W 59-44): 27 carries, 248 yards, 3 TD
In an offense known for passing, the running back stole the show on Saturday. Washington had three of Texas Tech's five rushing touchdowns in a win that made them bowl-eligible.

Michigan WR Jehu Chesson @ Indiana (W 48-41, 2OT): 10 catches, 207 yards, 4 TD
Chesson caught four of Michigan's six touchdowns, including the game-tying one as time expired in the fourth quarter.

Navy QB Keenan Reynolds vs. SMU (W 55-14): 2-9, 81 yards passing, TD; 14 carries, 137 yards rushing, 4 TD
The highly-accomplished Midshipmen set the NCAA record for career rushing touchdowns (78) while also throwing a 72-yard passing touchdown.


Play of Week


Oklahoma quarterback looked Johnny Manziel-esque on this touchdown against. Mayfield was able to extend the play and put the Sooners up two possessions with just a few minutes left in a 44-34 win.



I honestly just wanted to highlight the Memphis-Houston game, where Houston was down 34-14 at one point and came back to win 35-34. They were helped by plays like this, where Paxton Lynch's pitch bounced right off of running back Doroland Dorceus's chest and was recovered by Houston. Houston didn't capitalize on the turnover, but the next drive Lynch threw an interception on a bad pass.   


GSB Playoff Rankings (Week 12)

1. Clemson 
Clemson got a bit of a scare from Syracuse, but they were able to put the Orange away. The Tigers next two games are Wake Forest and South Carolina, and then (presumably) the ACC Championship game.

2. Ohio State
Ohio State dispatched Illinois last weekend and showed once again that the offense is better with J.T. Barrett at the helm. Now comes the tough part of the schedule, games against Michigan State and Michigan.

3. Alabama
Alabama destroyed Mississippi State last Saturday, and face what looks like a cupcake game against Charleston Southern this weekend before the Iron Bowl at Auburn.

4. Notre Dame
The Irish took care of Wake Forest, and now they have Boston College this weekend and a tough test at Stanford next weekend to finish off their season.

5. Iowa
6. Oklahoma State
7. Oklahoma
8. Michigan State
9. Florida
10. Baylor


Week 12 Preview

Quick Picks (home team listed last)

Last Week: 17-4
Overall: 102-31

Saturday
Florida Atlantic 9,  #8 Florida 28 (Noon, SEC Network)
#17 North Carolina 29, Virginia Tech 27 (Noon, ESPN)
Purdue 20, #5 Iowa 38 (Noon, ESPN 2)
#12 Michigan 35, Penn State 28 (Noon, ABC)
#21 Memphis 38, Temple 26 (Noon, ESPNU)
Chattanooga 17, #14 Florida State 40 (3:00 PM, ESPN 3)
Game to Watch#9 Michigan State 32, #3 Ohio State 38 (3:30 PM, ABC)
There are many good games this weekend, but the best is probably this Big Ten battle with playoff implications. 10-0 Ohio State faces by far it's toughest test of the season against a Spartan team that is a questionable call away from being 10-0 as well.
#20 Northwestern 28, #25 Wisconsin 30 (3:30 PM, BTN)
#19 Houston 42, Connecticut 24 (3:30 PM, ESPNU)
#24 USC 45, #23 Oregon 48 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
UCLA 32, #13 Utah 40 (3:30 PM, FOX)
#15 LSU 23, #22 Ole Miss 17 (3:30 PM, CBS)
Wake Forest 3, #1 Clemson 28 (3:30 PM, ESPN 2)
Charleston Southern 6, #2 Alabama 32 (4:00 PM, SEC Network)
#16 Navy 36, Tulsa 20 (7:00 PM, CBS Sports)
Boston College 17, #4 Notre Dame 34 (7:30 PM, NBC Sports)
#10 Baylor 33, #6 Oklahoma State 45 (7:30 PM, FOX)
#18 TCU 42, #7 Oklahoma 48 (8:00 PM, ABC)
California 31, #11 Stanford 37 (10:30 PM, ESPN)




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