Thursday, November 12, 2015

CFB Weekly Review/Preview: Playoff Resumes

We are into the second week of the College Football Playoff rankings, and there are some changes near the top after Alabama beat LSU. Here are this week's rankings:

1. Clemson 
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Iowa
6. Baylor
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma State
9. LSU
10. Utah 
11. Florida
12. Oklahoma
13. Michigan State
14. Michigan
15. TCU
16. Florida State
17. Mississippi State
18. Northwestern 
19. UCLA
20. Navy
21. Memphis
22. Temple
23. North Carolina
24. Houston
25. Wisconsin

The College Football Playoff Committee uses many different criteria for their rankings, including strength of schedule and the eye test, so I'm going to compare the brief resumes (strength of schedule, best wins, losses) for each of the teams:
Information via ESPN.com
1. Clemson (9-0)
SOS: 19th
Best Wins: #4 Notre Dame (24-22), #16 Florida State (23-13)
Losses: None

2. Alabama (8-1)
SOS: 1st
Best Wins: #9 LSU (30-16), #25 Wisconsin (35-17)
Losses: Ole Miss (37-43)

3. Ohio State (9-0)
SOS: 73rd
Best Wins: Penn State (38-10), @ Virginia Tech (42-24)
Losses: None

4. Notre Dame (8-1)
SOS: 12th
Best Wins: #20 Navy (41-24), @ #22 Temple (24-20)
Losses: @ #1 Clemson (22-24)

5. Iowa (9-0)
SOS: 62nd
Best Wins: @ #18 Northwestern (40-10), @ #25 Wisconsin (10-6)
Losses: None

6. Baylor (8-0)
SOS: 94th
Best Wins: Iowa State (45-27), West Virginia (62-38)
Losses: None

7. Stanford (8-1)
SOS: 30th
Best Wins: #19 UCLA (56-35), @ USC (41-31)
Losses: @ #18 Northwestern (6-16)

8. Oklahoma State (9-0)
SOS: 54th
Best Wins: #15 TCU (49-29), @ Texas (30-27)
Losses: None

9. LSU (7-1)
SOS: 18th
Best Wins: #11 Florida (35-28), @ #17 Mississippi State (21-17)
Losses: @ #2 Alabama (16-30)

10. Utah (8-1)
SOS: 26th
Best Wins: #14 Michigan (24-17), @ Oregon (62-20)
Losses: @ USC (24-42)

11. Florida (8-1)
SOS: 22nd
Best Wins: Ole Miss (38-10), Georgia (27-3)
Losses: @ #9 LSU (28-35)

12. Oklahoma (8-1)
SOS: 57th
Best Wins: Iowa State (52-16), Texas Tech (63-27)
Losses: Texas (17-24)

13. Michigan State (8-1)
SOS: 50th
Best Wins: @ #14 Michigan (27-23), Oregon (31-28)
Losses: @ Nebraska (38-39)

14. Michigan (7-2)
SOS: 59th
Best Wins: #18 Northwestern (38-0), BYU (31-0)
Losses: #10 Utah (17-24), #13 Michigan State (23-17)

15. TCU (8-1)
SOS: 37th
Best Wins: Texas (50-7), @ Iowa State (45-21)
Losses: @ #8 Oklahoma State (29-49)

16. Florida State (7-2)
SOS: 51st
Best Wins: Louisville (41-21), Miami (29-24)
Losses: @ Georgia Tech (16-22), @ #1 Clemson (13-23)

17. Mississippi State (7-2)
SOS: 39th
Best Wins: @ Auburn (17-9), Kentucky (42-16)
Losses: #9 LSU (19-21), @ Texas A&M (17-30)

18. Northwestern (7-2)
SOS: 32nd
Best Wins: #7 Stanford (16-6), @ Duke (19-10)
Losses: @ #14 Michigan (0-38), #5 Iowa (10-40)

19. UCLA (7-2)
SOS: 46th
Best Wins: BYU (24-23), California (40-24)
Losses: Arizona State (23-38), @ #7 Stanford (35-56)

20. Navy (7-1)
SOS: 87th
Best Wins: @ #22 Memphis (45-20), Air Force (33-11)
Losses: @ #4 Notre Dame (24-41)

21. Memphis (8-1)
SOS: 77th
Best Wins: Ole Miss (37-24), @ Bowling Green (44-41)
Losses: Navy (20-45)

22. Temple (8-1)
SOS: 96th
Best Wins: Penn State (27-10), @ Cincinnati (34-26)
Losses: #4 Notre Dame (20-24)

23. North Carolina (8-1)
SOS: 71st
Best Wins: @ Pittsburgh (26-19), Duke (66-31)
Losses: South Carolina (13-17)

24. Houston (9-0)
SOS: 119th
Best Wins: @ Louisville (34-31), Cincinnati (33-30)
Losses: None

25. Wisconsin (8-2)
SOS: 74th
Best Wins: @ Illinois (24-13), @ Nebraska (23-21)
Losses: #2 Alabama (17-35), #5 Iowa (6-10)

Use this to make any case you want, because their are definitely many arguments that can be had.


Week 10 Review

Top Games

1. Northern Illinois 32, #24 Toledo 27
In some Tuesday night MACtion, the Huskies upset the unbeaten Rockets thanks to a rally led by freshman backup quarterback Ryan Graham, who had to come in for starter Drew Hare, who injured his leg in the second quarter. Down 24-16 in the third quarter, the Huskies came back and took the lead with just under two minutes left, then intercepted Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely to seal the victory.

2. #7 Michigan State 38, Nebraska 39
Another week, another controversial finish. Michigan State was up 38-26 with a little over four minutes to play. Nebraska responded with a touchdown, but they were still down 38-33 with 1:47 left. They were able to force the Spartans to punt with 55 seconds on the clock, then conducted a four-play drive culminating in a 30-yard touchdown pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. to Brandon Reilly with 17 ticks left. However, Reilly clearly went out of bounds before catching the pass, which is illegal. The officials reviewed the play and came to the questionable conclusion that Reilly was forced out by MSU corner Jermaine Edmondson.

3. Arkansas 53, #18 Ole Miss 52, OT
Another week, another crazy play to win a game. The game was tied with three seconds left in the fourth quarter, when an Arkansas 47-yard field goal attempt was blocked. Ole Miss scored in overtime on three plays, and Arkansas couldn't get anywhere. On fourth down and 25 from the 40, Brandon Allen threw a 14-yard pass to Hunter Henry. Knowing he wasn't going to make it to the first down marker, Henry flung it backward, where it was picked up at the 42 by Alex Collins, who found space and ran 31 yards for a first down (he fumbled at the end of the play, but it was recovered by Arkansas' Dominique Reed). Allen threw a nine-yard touchdown pass to Drew Morgan two plays later, and instead of going for the tie, Bret Bielema went for the win. Unfortunately, Allen was pressured and had to throw it away as he was being taken down. However, he was taken down by his facemask, so the Razorbacks got another chance. This time, Allen ran it in for the game-winning score.


Top Performances

Arkansas QB Brandon Allen @ Ole Miss (W 53-52): 33-45, 442 yards, 6 TD
Allen played tough and exceptional, throwing six touchdowns, including the equalizer in overtime, and scoring the game-winning two-point conversion.

Alabama RB Derrick Henry vs. LSU (W 30-16): 38 carries, 210 yards, 3 TD
In the battle of Heisman contenders at running back, Henry wiped the floor with Leonard Fournette (19 carries, 31 yards, TD), which was a microcosm for the entire game, where Bama wiped the floor with LSU.

Baylor WR Corey Coleman @ Kansas State (W 31-24): 11 catches, 216 yards, 2 TD
Coleman continued his historic season in a nail-biter over K-State, catching 11 of Jared Stidham's 23 completions and two of his three passing touchdowns.


Play of the Week



I was going to go with Arkansas' amazing lateral, but I'm a sucker for flea-flickers. Oklahoma had their way with Iowa State, including on this nifty trick play.


Play of the Weak



I'll just use this as the Play of the Weak for Ole Miss's inability to stop Arkansas on fourth and 25 followed by a facemask penalty on the two-point conversion.


GSB Playoff Rankings

1. Clemson
Looking at each team's resume, I've finally conceded that Clemson deserves the first spot over Ohio State. The Tigers are rolling right now, and it seems highly likely they enter the ACC title game unbeaten. Next 3 Games: @ Syracuse (Saturday), Wake Forest (11/21), @ South Carolina (11/28)

2. Ohio State
Although the Buckeyes are no longer number one, they are still in the top two due to their talent level. This Saturday's game against Illinois is the preamble to big games against Michigan State and Michigan. Next 3 Games: @ Illinois (Saturday), #13 Michigan State (11/21), @ #14 Michigan (11/28)

3. Alabama
I contemplated putting unbeaten Iowa (or Baylor, or Oklahoma State) ahead of one-loss Alabama, but the Tide have a tougher schedule and are probably a better team. This is another case of how much talent a team has.
Next 3 Games: @ #17 Mississippi State (Saturday), Charleston Southern (11/21), @ Auburn (11/28)

4. Notre Dame
I also contemplated one of the other unbeatens here, but Notre Dame's lone loss was by two points on the road against the number one team in the country. Next 3 Games: Wake Forest (Saturday), Boston College (11/21), @ #7 Stanford (11/28)

5. Iowa
6. Oklahoma State
7. Baylor
8. Stanford
9. LSU
10. Utah


Week 11 Preview

Quick Picks (home team listed last)

Last Week: 15-7
Overall: 85-27

#1 Ohio State 42, Illinois 14 (Saturday, Noon, ABC)
#11 Florida 28, South Carolina 17 (Saturday, Noon, ESPN)
Kansas 13, #15 TCU 42 (Saturday, Noon, Fox Sports 1)
Maryland 14, #13 Michigan State 35 (Saturday, Noon, ESPN 2)
Purdue 21, Northwestern 28 (Saturday, Noon, BTN)
N.C. State 27, #16 Florida State 38 (Saturday, 12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Miami 30, #23 North Carolina 32 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPNU)
Wake Forest 17, #4 Notre Dame 32 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, NBC)
#1 Clemson 38, Syracuse 10 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN 2)
#2 Alabama 34, #17 Mississippi State 21 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS)
#14 Michigan 32, Indiana 27 (Saturday, ABC/ESPN 2)
SMU 23, #20 Navy 35 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS Sports)
#8 Oklahoma State 40, Iowa State 24 (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPN)
#22 Temple 34, South Florida 19 (Saturday, 7:00 PM, CBS Sports)
#21 Memphis 28, #24 Houston 35 (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN 2)
Arkansas 13, #9 LSU 21 (Saturday, 7:15 PM, ESPN)
Oregon 32, #7 Stanford 38 (Saturday, 7:30 PM, FOX)
Game to Watch: #12 Oklahoma 48, #6 Baylor 42 (Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC)
This Big 12 shootout between the Sooners and undefeated Baylor will definitely have an impact on the Big 12 race, and quite possibly the Playoff race.
Minnesota 20, #5 Iowa 29 (Saturday, 8:00 PM, BTN)
#10 Utah 32, Arizona 24 (Saturday, 10:00 PM, Fox Sports 1)
Upset Special: Washington State 41, #19 UCLA 38 (Saturday, 10:45 PM, ESPN)
Fun fact: Washington State's three losses (to Stanford, Cal, and, somehow, Portland State) were all by one possession. The Cougars are coming off a win over Arizona State, who beat UCLA 38-23 in Week 5. Washington State has the tools for the upset.










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