Tuesday, April 21, 2015

2015 NFL Draft Primer: Best-Case Scenarios

When teams head into a draft (no matter the sport, whether it be NFL, MLB, NBA, or even fantasy sports), they obviously hope for the best-case scenario. They hope that everyone they pick turns out well, and that they don't make a haunting mistake and pass on a future star for a bust. In reality, of course, the best-case scenario rarely, if ever, happens. Someone a scout, coach, GM, or owner thinks will be highly productive for a long time may end up only being with the team for a short time. There are also cases where players let off-the-field problems get in the way, are blocked at their position, or were just drafted by the wrong team. Here are what I think would be the best-case scenarios for each of the 30 teams drafting in the first round (the Bills and Seahawks don't have picks). Remember, these scenarios probably won't happen, but they could.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one's pretty simple. The Bucs draft Jameis Winston first overall, and he matures enough to be a star right away (or they pick Marcus Mariota, and he stars right away). With deep threats Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, as well as running back Doug Martin (who bounces back from an injury-riddled 2014) and an improved offensive line, Tampa Bay's offense flourishes. They find some diamonds in the rough later in the draft to improve from below-average on defense to average on defense, and Lovie Smith shows he is closer to the coach he was in Chicago than the one he was last year in Tampa.
2. Tennessee Titans
The Titans receive a king's ransom from a desperate team (like the Browns or the Jets) for the opportunity to pick Marcus Mariota, and they use those picks to improve as much of their team as they possibly can. Zack Mettenberger turns into Tom Brady, Bishop Sankey breaks out in his sophomore year, creating a strong backfield with some late-round pick and Shonn Greene, Kendall Wright has as many yards a in 2013 (1,079) but as many (or more) touchdowns as in 2014 (6), number two receiver Justin Hunter keeps improving after showing promise last year, and number three receiver Harry Douglas, out from the shadows of Julio Jones and Roddy White, has a breakout year of his own.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags get defensive end Leonard Williams, a very powerful and talented player who turns out to be the best player in the draft, and possibly the next J.J. Watt (okay, maybe not). Blake Bortles makes a huge leap in his second year, showing Jacksonville why they picked him fifth overall. Denard Robinson shows what he did last year wasn't an anomaly, plus wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have big second seasons. The defense continues to improve, leading the league in sacks behind Williams, who wins Rookie of the Year.
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders get the best receiver in the draft (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White) and pair him with up-and-coming quarterback Derek Carr, who continues to play like a veteran. Running back Latavius Murray stays healthy and has a career year, playing more like another Murray did last year, and Trent Richardson... is still Trent Richardson. On defense, young guys Khalil Mack and Sio Moore and old guys Justin Tuck and Charles Woodson have successful seasons, leading a dangerous defense. Oh, and Sebastian Janikowski breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
5. Washington Redskins
They make up for the RGIII trade, getting a huge haul from a team that really wants Marcus Mariota (probably the Browns), and use those picks to rebuild their team. Owner Dan Snyder decides to change the team name (yeah, right) to the Red Dogs, satisfying Native Americans, but upsetting dogs. Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin III go on a bonding trip, and become close friends. RGIII stays healthy and plays more like he did his rookie season (only better). Running back Alfred Morris also plays more like his rookie season, and the defense is less awful than last season.
6. New York Jets
The Jets get Marcus Mariota without having to trade up, finally making fans forget about the likes of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. With Stevan Ridley joining Chris Ivory, the Jets are again among the best rushing teams in the league, and with Darrelle Revis back to join an already good defense, the Jets are one of the better overall teams in the league. They also beat Rex Ryan and the Bills each time they play them.
7. Chicago Bears
The Bears add Amari Cooper or Kevin White to replace Brandon Marshall, joining Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte to form one of the most dangerous groups of receiving options in the league. Jay Cutler takes advantage of those options and stops being Jay Cutler, resulting in a career year. He even smiles a few times. They also upgrade the defense, and they are good enough to allow the high-octane offense to win.
8. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons draft Vic Beasley, who becomes one of the most dangerous linebackers in the NFL, somehow turning Atlanta's horrible defense into an only slightly horrible defense. Matt Ryan goes back to being Matty Ice, throwing bombs to Roddy White and Julio Jones. And the actual crowd noise is so loud that they don't need to use artificial crowd noise.
9. New York Giants
The Giants strike gold again (remember OBJ?), drafting Missouri defensive end Shane Ray, who falls to them. Ray and Jason Pierre-Paul combine for 32 sacks. The deep stable of running backs play well, Victor Cruz plays so well he wins Dancing with the Stars, and Eli Manning remembers he has two rings and can just throw it anywhere within 10 feet of Odell Beckham Jr.
10. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are able to snatch Kevin White, who immediately becomes their best offensive player. Nick Foles shows that his magical season two years ago in fact wasn't due to magic or luck or talent around him, but his own skills, and Tre Mason shows that his impressive showing in a few games last season wasn't due to luck or a small sample size, but talent and good ball carrier vision. The defense continues playing great, now with an offense that can score for them. Also, Greg the Leg (Greg Zurlein) breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota drafts wide receiver DeVante Parker, reuniting him with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The familiarity helps Bridgewater immensely, as he has a wonderful second season. So does Parker, making people reminisce about their days at Louisville. Running back Jerick McKinnon continues his surprising play from last season, and the defense plays just as well against the pass (7th last season) and much better vs. the run (25th last season).
12. Cleveland Browns
The Browns don't make a desperation move to trade up for Marcus Mariota, instead staying put and picking DeVante Parker or Kevin White, giving them a supremely talented wide receiver who doesn't have a history of drug problems. Johnny Manziel makes a comeback from his poor play last season and trip to rehab, making money signs left and right as he becomes Cleveland's biggest savior since LeBron.
13. New Orleans Saints
The Saints take a chance on troubled linebacker Randy Gregory, and he overcomes his off-the-field problems to show that he was a steal at 13. Drew Brees shows he is still an elite quarterback, and the leaky defense greatly improves. They still miss Jimmy Graham, but they do well without him.
14. Miami Dolphins
Miami picks a wide receiver (perhaps DeVante Parker or Central Florida's Breshad Perriman), who turns about to be better than recently departed Mike Wallace. Whoever they draft teams with Jarvis Landry to create a talented pair of receiving threats for Ryan Tannehil, who continues to show great improvement. The defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, also performs well.
15. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners draft Danny Shelton or Arik Armstead to beef up their defensive line, strengthening a defense that finished fifth in opponent rushing yards and seventh in opponent passing yards last year but took some hits in the offseason. On the other side of the ball, Colin Kaepernick silences the critics and Carlos Hyde proves a worthy successor to Frank Gore. Also, what's-his-face (I just looked it up; his name is Jim Tomsula) proves to be just as good of a coach as Jim Harbaugh (or better), but with less screaming.
16. Houston Texans
Houston, after losing Andre Johnson, picks talented but troubled wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, straightens him out, and watches him destroy opposing secondaries. They also watch Arian Foster continue to destroy opposing defenses and J.J. Watt continue to destroy opposing offenses. J.J. Watt finishes in the top half of the league in touchdown catches by tight ends, and Brian Hoyer plays more like he did at the beginning of last season than the end of last season.
17. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers trade Phillip Rivers, giving him what he wants (not to move to L.A.) and giving them what they want (a high pick they can use to draft Marcus Mariota). Antonio Gates continues producing late in his career, and Malcolm Floyd, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Oliver have big years. Manti Te'o and the defense has a big year, almost making people forget that he was catfished. Te'o and Mariota form the best duo of Hawaiian NFL teammates ever.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs pick a receiver who will score touchdowns, and he does score touchdowns. Jamaal Charles also scores touchdowns (many of them), and Alex Smith continues to be a magnificent game manager. Linebacker Justin Houston gets 20 sacks, and the defense dominates. The team plays so well that they could be coached by the fake Andy Reid and still win.
19. Cleveland Browns
The Browns hold on to both of their first round picks, as well as their other eight draft picks. They draft talented running back Todd Gurley here, putting him with promising backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell to form a formidable trio of running backs. They also find some gems later in the draft (like they did last year), and they form a bright young team to go with their bright new uniforms.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
Chip Kelly resists reuniting with Marcus Mariota, instead getting a much-needed outside linebacker (perhaps Kentucky's Bud Dupree?) or defensive back (perhaps Alabama's Landon Collins?). Sam Bradford stays healthy and plays well TIM TEBOW DOES TIM TEBOW THINGS, DeMarco Murray repeats last year, and Chip Kelly is hailed as not only a great coach, but a great decision-maker, and possibly (though probably not) a 2016 Presidential candidate.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals draft a defensive back, shoring up their defense and making it one nobody wants to face. Andy Dalton shows a lot more Good Andy than Bad Andy, Jordan Hill and Gio Bernard are one of the best running back tandems in the league, and Marvin Lewis suddenly becomes a much better coach.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers pick a safety to fill Troy Polamalu's footsteps, and he fills them admirably. Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing touchdown passes, Le'Veon Bell keeps running over people, Antonio Brown keeps kung fu fighting people, and the defense plays like Pittsburgh defenses of old.
23. Detroit Lions
Detroit gets a ferocious defensive tackle to fill the hole left by Ndomakong Suh (possibly Malcolm Brown from Texas or, if he's available, Danny Shelton from Washington). Calvin Johnson continues being Calvin Johnson, Joique Bell produces in the absence of Reggie Bush, and the defense, now with Haloti Ngata and the first round pick, becomes the best in the league (they were the best in the league in run defense last year; they were 13th against the pass).
24. Arizona Cardinals
The Cards get Bud Dupree, filling a depleted spot in their defense. Carson Palmer bounces back from injury and shows he's still got it (well, he's got enough, at least), Andre Ellington shows he can be Arizona's featured back, and Larry Fitzgerald shows he's still got it, as well. The secondary, led by Patrick Patterson and Tyrann Mathieu, leads the league in interceptions, and the defense plays just fine without former defensive coordinator (now Jets coach) Todd Bowles.
25. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers select an offensive lineman to better protect Cam Newton, and they do better protect Cam Newton. This allows Newton to make even more strides in his passing development, and put up career numbers. Luke Kuechly leads the league in tackles and wins Defensive Player of the Year, and Kelvin Benjamin has a wonderful second year.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore gets a receiver to pair with Steve Smith Sr., helping Joe Flacco remind people of his playoff run the year they won the Super Bowl. Justin Forsett has another great season on the ground, and the defense remains strong despite the loss of Haloti Ngata.
27. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys draft a running back to replace DeMarco Murray (either Georgia's Todd Gurley or Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon), and the rookie hits the ground running. Tony Romo continues quietly performing well despite all the criticism (he will never be able to get rid of the criticism and jokes, despite how well he has performed, until he wins a ring), and the defense improves with the help of some later draft picks.
28. Denver Broncos
The Broncos upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Peyton Manning. Manning plays more like two years ago and less like late last season, the defense pays very well, and Denver uses a second or third round pick on a tight end to fill the hole left by Julius Thomas.
29. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Peyton Manning Andrew Luck. Luck plays more like two years ago last year (and the year before) and less like late last season 25 years ago, the defense plays well, and the addition of veteran playmakers Frank Gore and Andre Johnson pays dividends on and off the field.
30. Green Bay Packers
The Packers upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers upgrade their secondary, drafting a corner. The offense is still very dangerous, with elite quarterback Aaron Rodgers, talented receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and workhorse back Eddie Lacy, and the defense gets better.
31. New Orleans Saints
The Saints add a defensive lineman to try to plug their porous defense (along with the linebacker at 13), Drew Brees silences the doubters with a magnificent season, Benjamin Watson plays as well as Jimmy Graham (I'm kidding, I'm kidding), and Mark Ingram continues playing well.
32. New England Patriots
The Patriots already got the best-case scenario, so it doesn't really matter what happens here. They still have Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and spare parts who seem to work out most of the time. Oh, and the title of defending Super Bowl champs. But maybe they can finally draft a productive defensive back (although that may be a bit overblown).


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