Wednesday, April 8, 2015

2015 MLB Preview: Breakouts, Busts, and Predictions

It's that time of year again. The days get longer, the weather gets nicer (usually), and America's Pastime starts back up again. I know it's a coupled of days late, but here's my little 2015 MLB Preview, where I go through potential breakout and bust candidates (this isn't necessarily who I think will breakout/bust, but who I think is the most likely to), as well as my season predictions. Let's get to it.
Note: Triple-slash lines (-/-/-) are batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage; WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is from Fangraphs.

Potential Breakout Candidates (Teams)-teams primed for a big 2015 season
Toronto Blue Jays: The Red Sox might be an obvious choice to "breakout" after a very down year in 2014, but they don't exactly fit the mold of a breakout candidate. The Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup (featuring prodigious power hitters Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista) that got even better during the offseason after they acquired all-around catcher Russell Martin and All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson. The one question might be the pitching, led by veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as the young Drew Hutchison. But if top prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris make strong impressions, they will be playoff contenders.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians took a big step forward last year, thanks to breakout performances by left fielder Michael Brantley (.327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 23 SB) and starting pitcher Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44 ERA), who won the AL Cy Young award. Those two may not quite reach those stats, but they are definitely the real deal. The Tribe also has other breakout candidates in starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, underrated talents Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, and Jason Kipnis, and top prospect Francisco Lindor on the horizon.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners greatly improved last year after signing Robinson Cano and some other big bats, and they could take another step this year. They signed Nelson Cruz, who hit 40 home runs last year, this offseason, and they still have Felix Hernandez, one of the most consistently dominant pitchers in baseball. Add to that the questions facing the other AL West contenders (Angels: pitching; A's: completely new team) and the Mariners are a trendy pick to win the division.
Miami Marlins: Miami has a talented young core with outfielders Giancarlo Stanton (.288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 105 RBI in 2014), Marcell Ozuna (.269/.317/.455, 23 HR, 85 RBI), and Christian Yelich (.284/.362/.402, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 21 SB), and starting pitchers Jose Fernandez (whose recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Henderson Alvarez (12-7, 2.65 ERA in 2014), and they added to that in the offseason, acquiring starting pitcher Mat Latos and second baseman Dee Gordon in trades. In a weak division (other than the Nationals), the Marlins could definitely make the playoffs this year (although they aren't looking very good so far).
Chicago Cubs: The Cubbies have been the talk of the league, and while I'm not as bullish on them as others (they play in a tough division, and their opening night performance didn't impress), there is no denying that they are on the rise. They hired Joe Maddon as manager in the offseason, adding a savvy skipper who helped lead the Rays out of the cellar and into the playoffs. They have tons of young talent, including Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant, and they have a decent rotation fronted by free agent signee Jon Lester. This could be the year they break the streak (I think they're a year away), and according to Back To The Future 2, they will.
San Diego Padres: Padres GM A.J. Preller is like me in MLB: The Show. He just can't stop trading. This offseason, he traded for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris, and Sunday he traded for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel and The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Upton (now Melvin Upton Jr.), reuniting the Upton brothers yet again. Their offense will be greatly improved, but their defense may be a bit shaky. The key may be the rotation, led by free agent signee James Shields.

Potential Bust Candidates (Teams)-Teams that could decline
Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore won the AL East last year despite rocky seasons for All-Stars Matt Wieters (played just 26 games due to injury), Manny Machado (played just 82 games due to injury), and Chris Davis (hit just .196 and was suspended at the end of the season), and a rotation without a real ace (Chris Tillman is the number one starter). Over the winter, they lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and didn't gain anyone of significance. They do still have a good bullpen and strong defense, and they have (in my opinion) a very good manager in Buck Showalter, but they are still plagued by injuries (Wieters and J.J. Hardy are starting the season on the disabled list) and didn't improve their team as division rivals got better.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals were the feel-good story last year, making it to the World Series after years of missing the playoffs. They then lost outfielder Nori Aioki and top starter James Shields and signed veterans Alex Rios (.280/.311/.398, 4 HR, 0.1 WAR last year in Texas) and Kendrys Morales (.218/.274/.338, 8 HR, -1.8 WAR for two teams). They still have the core from last year, but their starting pitching is a question mark, their bullpen, although very good, probably won't repeat last year, and the Indians and White Sox have gotten better.
Oakland Athletics: I still believe the A's, like the Orioles, will contend (because you never bet against Billy Beane), but the A's, in typical Billy Beane fashion, cleaned out their roster from last year and brought in a lot of new guys. Gone are Derek Norris, John Jaso, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, and Jeff Samardija. In are Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, and Yunel Escobar. It will be interesting to see how this works out, but they lost a lot of talent, and still have to compete with L.A. and Seattle.
Atlanta Braves: The NL East has no real bust candidate, since the Nationals are World Series favorites, the Marlins and Mets are breakout candidates, and the Braves and Phillies are cellar-dwellers. The Braves have basically called it a season already (on paper, at least), having traded excellent defender Jason Heyward, power hitter Evan Gattis, and flamethrowing closer Craig Kimbrel. They do have a promising rotation (led by Shelby Miller), but their lineup isn't very good.
Milwaukee Brewers: I will not put the Reds here, no matter what the pundits say. The Brewers led the division for much of last year before faltering down the stretch. Their rotation doesn't look to be good (now without Yovani Gallardo), and their lineup, aside from Jonatahan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun, isn't that imposing.
San Francisco Giants: It's an odd-numbered year, which means the Giants probably won't make the playoffs. They also just aren't as good. They lost some key players, including Pablo Sandoval, and starting pitcher Matt Cain is experiencing pain that is forcing him to miss (at least) his first start. They still have the magnificent battery of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, and Joe Panik is a good young player. But history and the numbers say the defending champs won't repeat.

Potential Breakout Candidates (Players)-players that could be primed for a big 2015 (rookies weren't considered, since they don't have MLB past performance to improve on)
Red Sox CF Mookie Betts: The 22-year-old Betts  is a popular pick to breakout. He has a good combination of on-base skills and speed, and many believe he has the tools to become a star. He has certainly showed that so far. Last year in 52 games, he hit .291 with a .368 on-base percentage, and on Opening Day he had two hits, including a home run.
Indians SP Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco, who signed a four-year extension with Cleveland on Sunday, was overshadowed by Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last year. Carrasco, in 14 starts (plus multiple relief appearances), had a 2.55 ERA and 140 strikeouts. He could be the next Indians starting pitcher to break through.
A's SP Jesse Hahn: Pitching behind ace Sonny Gray, Hahn got to the big leagues last year and started 12 games, amassing a 7-4 record and a 3.07 ERA. Now he'll get a full season to build on the good start.
Marlins LF Christian Yelich: Yelich showed great all-around skills in his first full season (he played in 62 games in 2013), hitting .284 with a .362 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and 21 stolen bases (plus a Gold Glove). He's likely to get even better this year.
Pirates RF Gregory Polanco: Polanco received much fanfare last year after tearing up Triple-A, and began his Major League career hot. But he then cooled off significantly, losing playing time towards the end of the season. However, he definitely has talent, and he will get a chance to show that talent this year on a potential playoff contender.
Diamondbacks CF A.J. Pollock: A fractured hand ended a promising 2014 campaign early (he hit .302 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in 75 games), and his breakout will likely continue this year.

Potential Bust Candidates (Players)-players who could decline (relievers weren't considered, since their performance vary so widely year-to-year)
Red Sox RF Shane Victorino: The 34-year-old Victorino won the starting job over Cuban signee Rusney Castillo, but it probably won't be long until Castillo overtakes the injury-prone veteran (Victorino played in just 30 games last year).
Tigers SP Alfredo Simon: The 33-year-old Simon had a renaissance year last season, winning 15 games and making the All-Star team for the Reds. Before last season, the veteran was at best a solid reliever, so don't expect a repeat performance.
Angels SP Matt Shoemaker: Shoemaker had a breakout campaign last season (16-4, 3.04 ERA), but his minor league statistics (3.42 ERA) suggest a regression this year.
Nationals RF Jayson Werth: Werth had a very good season last year (.292/.394/.455, 16 HR, 82 RBI), but he's 35 and is currently on the DL.
Brewers RF Ryan Braun: Braun hit 19 home runs last year, but he was only worth 0.8 Wins Above Replacement. He's not what he was in 2012 (when he was worth 7.3 WAR), and injuries and age are creeping up on him.
Diamondbacks SP Josh Collmenter: Collmenter is somehow the D-Backs' number one starter after a 2014 in which he went 11-9 with a 3.46 ERA (that shows you how good the D-Backs are probably going to be).

Predictions
Remember, I am a prophet and all of these predictions are and will be completely right. Just look at my NCAA Tournament picks (I had Wisconsin over Utah this year, and Creighton winning it all last year). I also hate your team, which is why I didn't pick them to win it all. Seriously.
AL East:
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
This is a competitive division, and at first I went back and forth between the Red Sox and Orioles. Then I realized the Blue Jays probably have a better lineup than the Orioles. I think it will come down to the wire between Toronto and Baltimore for the second spot, and Boston's talent just can't be ignored.
AL Central:
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Twins
I think four of the five teams could potentially win this division, and I think a team other than the Tigers will win it next year. But they'll have enough for another division title this year.
AL West: 
Mariners
Athletics
Angels
Astros
Rangers
The Mariners, A's, and Angels will probably be battling for the division all season, but I think this may be the Mariners' year. The top three could go in any order, though.
AL Champs: Blue Jays
This is a bit of a bold prediction, but I have to have one somewhere. The Blue Jays have the offensive firepower to contend, with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson in the middle of the order. Like I said, the question will be the pitching, and whether Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris succeed in their rookie seasons.
AL MVP: Angels CF Mike Trout
No explanation needed here.
AL Cy Young: Mariners SP Felix Hernandez
Not much explanation needed here, either, but he'll more than likely win it if the Mariners win the AL West.
AL Rookie of the Year: Blue Jays SP Daniel Norris
This race is much more wide open than the National League race, with young pitchers like Norris, Aaron Sanchez, and the White Sox Carlos Rodon, as well as reclamation project Steven Souza Jr and Cuban import Rusney Castillo. But Norris intrigues me. That's all I've got.
NL East
Nationals
Marlins
Mets
Braves
Phillies
This is basically a two or three team race (regardless of what the early results suggest). The Mets may make a surprise run. I originally had the Marlins winning the division, but after their first two games, I'm not confident enough in them to pick them to beat the stacked Nationals.
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Cubs
Brewers
Being a Reds fan, I truly believe in the Reds this year. However, the Cardinals are the class of the division, and they are just as good this year as any year. The Reds and Pirates (and possibly the Cubs) will battle for the Wild Card.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks
The Dodgers are an obvious favorite in this division, and I don't think the bottom three teams will be close late in the season. The interesting team here is the Padres. I could see them, with their offensive talent, winning the division. I could also see them, with their questionable defense, missing the playoffs. I have them barely missing the playoffs here, but I could see them in the postseason.
NL Champs: Dodgers
I can't be too bold, so I have the mighty Dodgers winning the National League. They have the best pitcher in Major League Baseball and many great hitters/all-around players, including Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jimmy Rollins. They will have competition from the Cardinals (who are always postseason threats) and Nationals (who never seem to meet their lofty expectations).
NL MVP: Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton
I wanted to pick Andrew McCutchen, but he probably won't win unless the Pirates make the playoffs, and I don't have them in (because of my "homer" pick, the Reds). So I chose the mighty Giancarlo Stanton of the surprise Miami Marlins. He will more than likely hit the most home runs, as his scary hit by pitch late last year doesn't seem to have affected him.
NL Cy Young: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw
No explanation needed here.
NL Rookie of the Year: Cubs 3B Kris Bryant
Bryant looks ready to bash in the big leagues (as soon as the Cubs call him up in mid-April), and the only other strong candidates I can think of is L.A.'s Joc Pederson and maybe Arizona's Yasmany Tomas. I don't think Bryant will put up MVP-type numbers (temper your expectations a bit), but I do think he will put up Rookie of the Year-type numbers.
World Series Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are too good not to make it to the World Series sometime soon (although the same could be said about the Nationals), and they may this year. I am not at all confident in my picks, but oh well. L.A. is good.





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