Football season never really ends. From August to February, games are played, in March, the combine is held and players are scouted in preparation for the NFL Draft, April and May is the time of the draft, and then the summer is for training camps and the preseason. Right now, it's NFL Draft season. This is the time of year when young 20-something year-old's are scrutinized and judged based on things like how quickly they can run 40 yards and how they conduct themselves in interviews. It is also the time when a multitude of so-called "draft experts" give their mock drafts and who they think are the top players in the draft. I am by no means a "draft expert", but I thought I'd try my hand at a mock draft (1st round only) anyway. I'm basing my picks off of other people's mock drafts, rumors of teams' interest in a certain player, and, most importantly, team needs. (Note: I will not be predicting trades, although there are sure to be some)
(Stats and information from NFL.com)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.
I don't believe Jameis Winston is the best player in the draft (or quarterback, for that matter), and I'm not sure he will succeed in the NFL (he needs to mature first). However, he is viewed by the majority as the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, basically every draft analyst has him as the first overall pick, and the Bucs are a QB-needy team who can't pass up the opportunity to get a quarterback who can step in and play right away. He does bring arm strength, good intelligence and ability to read on the field (although his off-field intelligence may be lacking), and good size (6'4", 230 lbs.).
2. Tennessee Titans: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
I think this will come down to Mariota and defensive end Leonard Williams, widely regarded as the best prospect in the draft (or they will trade down). The Titans have a need at both positions, but after the early retirement of Jake Locker and the doubt in Zack Mettenberger as a long-term solution, I can't see the Titans passing up on a quarterback with prototypical size (6'4", 219 lbs.), athleticism, college success (won the Heisman this past year), and high character, even if it means passing on a 6'5", 300-pound defensive end.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Leonard Williams, USC
The Jaguars would surely be delighted if Williams fell to them. He would strengthen the Jags' already strong defensive front (T-6th in sacks last year). Williams brings the rare combination of size (as I said before, 6'5", 300 lbs.), speed (4.53-second 40), and past production (First-Team All-Pac-12 last year). There is no way Williams will fall out of the top three.
4. Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
The Raiders will most likely choose Cooper or West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White here (unless they trade the pick), since receiver is their biggest need. Both Cooper and White are supremely talented wide receivers who will come in and instantly make an impact, improving an Oakland offense that is quarterbacked by impressive sophomore Derek Carr. I'll say Cooper, who is rated by most as the best receiver in the draft and was the most dangerous receiver in college football last year.
5. Washington Redskins: OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
The Redskins could trade out of this pick, either with a team desperate for a wide receiver (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White will most likely still be on the board here) or a team desperate for a quarterback (if the Titans don't pick Mariota, a team may trade up for him). If they don't, Vic Beasley is a very good option. He's a talented outside linebacker from Clemson who was the best OLB at the combine, and he would add great depth to the Washington corps.
6. New York Jets: WR Kevin White, West Virginia
The Jets would love it if Winston or Mariota fell this far, but if they don't, the next best option would probably be one of the top two receivers in the draft. Others might have them choosing Shane Ray or some other defensive lineman or linebacker here, but White would help solidify the Jets receiving corps alongside Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. White was a playmaker at West Virginia, and he ran one of the fastest 40-yard dashes at the combine (4.35 seconds).
7. Chicago Bears: OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Fowler could possibly go as high as number three, but in this mock, the Bears snatch him up at eight. He is an athletic and explosive edge rusher who had 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for a loss last season at Florida. He will immediately upgrade the Chicago defense and fill a need.
8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Ray is a good fit for Atlanta. They need pass-rushers, and Ray is a ferocious pass-rusher. He is very explosive and can get to the quarterback. He is a disruptive force who won SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season with 14.5 sacks.
9. New York Giants: OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa
This is a good fit for the offensive line-needy Giants, which explains why many think the Giants will pick him here. The 6'5", 320-pound Scherff is a mauler who can play guard and tackle. He will be an instant upgrade and will help pave the way for New York's stable of running backs.
10. St. Louis Rams: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.
The Rams could try to upgrade their below-average offense, or they could try to beef up their already stingy defense. I'm saying they do the latter, slotting the physical Waynes opposite Janoris Jenkins. Waynes has the size (6'1") and speed (4.31 40) to compete at corner in the NFL, and he went up against tough, talented wide receivers last year.
11. Minnesota Vikings: WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
The Vikings upgraded their receiving corps (ranked 28th last year) by signing Mike Wallace, but they could still use some production on the outside. Who better than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's former college teammate? Parker may not be the most explosive or fastest receiver in this draft class, but he is productive. He had 855 yards and five touchdowns last season despite missing the first seven games.
12. Cleveland Browns: NT Danny Shelton, Washington
As a Browns fan, I would love it if Mariota or one of the top three receivers fell this far. If Mariota is here, the Browns should take him. If Cooper, White, or Parker are here, the Browns should take one of them. I also wouldn't rule out a trade up for Mariota. But in this mock draft, the Browns choose Shelton, who's a popular mock pick to the Browns. He brings much-needed depth to their defensive line.
13. New Orleans Saints: DT Arik Armstead, Oregon
The Saints could pick talented outside linebacker Randy Gregory here, but his failed drug test may turn them away. Instead, they could choose Armstead, who has size (6'8", 290) and explosiveness to improve New Orleans' porous defense.
14. Miami Dolphins: WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
The Dolphins are in the market for another receiver after losing Mike Wallace to free agency. Perriman is a fast riser who some think might be a top ten pick. I don't think he'll crack the top ten, but he has the size (6'3", 214) and catching ability to produce. Also possibilities for the 'Fins are Arizona State receiver Jaelen Strong and talented but troubled receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.
15. San Francisco 49ers: OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Finally, Gregory's free fall ends. He has top 10 (and possibly top 5) talent, but he failed a drug test, which will likely cause him to drop on draft night. The Niners could use some help on their defensive front, and on the field, few have the raw skills that Gregory does.
16. Houston Texans: WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.
The Texans could use some wide receiver help after losing long-time franchise player Andre Johnson, and Strong is a strong (no pun intended) and physical receiver who has shown the ability to catch balls in traffic. The wideout with the highest vertical leap at the combine (42 inches) is a really good possession receiver.
17. San Diego Chargers: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
There have been rumblings about San Diego trading up for Phillip Rivers' successor, but I think they should look to upgrade the talent around Rivers. Gurley, regarded as an elite prospect, would definitely be an upgrade over a pair of running backs (Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver) better suited for third down duty. The only question with Gurley may be health (he tore his ACL last year) and the overall durability of running backs.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Marcus Peters, Washington
The Chiefs really need a wide receiver (their receivers caught a whopping zero touchdown passes last season), but with the top receivers already gone, they could go for a cornerback, which is another pressing need. Although he may have an attitude problem (he was dismissed from the team last season after a confrontation with a coach at practice), he is highly talented and has great coverage skills.
19. Cleveland Browns: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
The Browns could draft Todd Gurley if he's still available here, but if not (or even if he is), they might look to improve their offensive line depth. Peat may be the best offensive lineman in the draft, and he reminds me of last year's second-round pick by the Browns, Joel Bitonio (although maybe that's just me), because of his blend of size (6'7", 316 lbs.) and quickness, and the fact that he's from the west coast (Bitonio went to Nevada).
20. Philadelphia Eagles: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The Eagles, guided by Chip Kelly, are another trendy pick to trade up, but that may all just be noise. If the Eagles stay put, they will probably pick a defensive back, and Collins would be a good choice. He is really good in run support, with his aggressive style of play, which helped Alabama be one of the best defenses in the country.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Malcolm Brown, Texas
Brown could go higher, but in this mock draft, he fits in at 21 to the Bengals. The 6'2", 320-pound Brown is big, versatile, and NFL-ready. He was a first-team All-American at Texas, as well as a finalist for the Bronco Nagurski Trophy (best defensive player in the country). The Bengals would surely love to add him to their strong defensive line.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
The Steelers need help in the secondary, especially after the retirement of Troy Polamalu. They probably won't find Polamalu's replacement here, but they could find a talented corner without the character issues that Marcus Peters has. He would definitely improve their defensive backfield, as he greatly improved during his time at Wake Forest and performed well at the combine.
23. Detroit Lions: DT Eddie Goldman, Florida St.
Goldman has risen up draft boards, and he would be a good fit in Detroit, where they are trying to replace Pro Bowler Ndamakong Suh. Goldman is an athletic, explosive run-stopper who was a third-team All-American last year at Florida State.
24. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
The Cardinals would love it if Alvin "Bud" Dupree fell to them. Dupree is very athletic and explosive (4.56 40), and would fit very well on an Arizona team in need of some more linebackers. He had 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for a loss last season at Kentucky.
25. Carolina Panthers: OT La'el Collins, LSU
The Panthers will more than likely go with an offensive lineman here to help protect Cam Newton. They could go several different ways, with Andrus Peat, Miami tackle Ereck Flowers, and Florida tackle D.J. Humphries all viable options here if they're still available. Collins could very well be the best of the bunch. At 6'5", 321, he is a mean and powerful player who was named best offensive lineman in the SEC last year.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Jalen Collins, LSU
Going with two LSU products named Collins in a row, Jalen Collins would be a good fit for a Baltimore team in need of corners. He is very athletic, bringing a combination of size (6'2", 198 lbs.) and speed (4.48 40). He is a bit raw (started 10 times in four years at LSU), but has immense potential.
27. Dallas Cowboys: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
The Cowboys could go several directions here (defensive line, offensive line, cornerback), but Gordon, a Heisman finalist last year, would be a good pick. Dallas has Darren McFadden on its roster, but he has yet to show he can stay healthy, so the explosive Gordon could add more strength to a position that was highly productive for the 'Boys last season (when they had DeMarco Murray).
28. Denver Broncos: OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
This pick will almost surely be an offensive lineman, as the Broncos look to add protection for Peyton Manning. Flowers has great size (6'6", 324 lbs.) and athleticism, and could be a very strong left tackle in the future. Flowers could conceivably go much higher, before Collins and Peat.
29. Indianapolis Colts: OT D.J. Humphries, Florida
The Colts, like the Broncos, will most likely look for protection for star quarterback Andrew Luck. Going with a second offensive lineman prospect from Florida, Humphries is a highly athletic and aggressive blocker. He has some things to work on, but he would be a great add for the Colts.
30. Green Bay Packers: LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
Kendricks is a smart defender with a brother (Mychal, a linebacker for the Eagles) in the NFL. Eric is a strong tackler (149 last year) who won the Butkus Award (best linebacker in the country) last season at UCLA. The Packers could put him beside Clay Matthews, improving their defense.
31. New Orleans Saints: C Cameron Erving, Florida St.
The Saints, like some teams late in the first round, could take different paths here. They could continue trying to improve their abysmal defense, or they could add a receiver. They could also take an offensive lineman, and that's what I have them doing here. Erving is a fast riser who has the athleticism to succeed on the offensive line.
32. New England Patriots: CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
Yet another player who has risen up draft boards, Jones has the size (6'1", 199 lbs.) and athleticism to be successful in the secondary. Although cornerback Malcolm Butler was the hero in the Super Bowl, the Pats could still use some more talent in the defensive backfield.
Potential Second Round Steals
There are always some diamonds in the rough who fly under the radar or fall down draft boards for numerous reasons, whether it be injury, off-field problems, the result of playing for a small school in college, or just position or team needs. These guys may have first round talent, but for different reasons, may not go until Day 2.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
This 6'6", 225-pound talent is supremely athletic (ran a 4.49-second 40) and skilled (883 yards and 12 touchdowns for Missouri in 2013), but, much like Josh Gordon, another extremely talented wide receiver, can't stay out of trouble. He was dismissed from Missouri in 2014 after being investigated for burglary and assault (he wasn't charged), and on two occasions before that, he was arrested for having/smoking marijuana (he wasn't charged either time). After being dismissed from Missouri, he transferred to Oklahoma but didn't play due to transfer rules.
LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
Thompson might go in the first round, but whether he does or not, the team that drafts him will get a very versatile and athletic player who can impact many areas of the game. He played linebacker and running back in college, and was an 18th round pick by the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 MLB Draft before he gave up baseball (he also ran track and field) to focus on football. He can be put a lot of places, which alone could make him a value in the second round. The question is where he best fits in the NFL (safety or linebacker?).
CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Olomu was a projected first round pick before hurting his knee in preparation for the College Football Playoff. Concerns about the injury and about his height (5'10") may cause him to slide, but he was an All-American last year and a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the best defensive back in the country.
OT T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh
Clemmings could very well go in the first round, ahead of some other lineman. He has lots of potential but little experience on the offensive line, as he moved there from the defensive line two years ago. However, he is very athletic (he was a basketball star in high school), and as he gains more experience, could be a very good offensive tackle.
OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Ogbuehi, like Clemmings, could very possibly go in the first round (as could any of these guys, really). Ogbuehi is very athletic and has lots of potential, also like Clemmings. The major reason Ogbuehi could fall is the torn ACL he suffered in a Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia.
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
Williams is by far the best tight end in this draft class. The question is whether a team will think about taking a tight end in the first round. An explosive, fast tight end, Williams had 569 yards receiving and eight touchdowns last season for the Gophers. He was also a finalist for the Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in the nation. Michigan TE/WR Devin Funchess could also be a second or third round steal for his size (6'5", 230) and ability to play both positions.
LB Paul Dawson, TCU
Dawson had a fabulous 2014 season for the Horned Frogs, amassing 136 tackles and 20 tackles for a loss, and winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He played one year at Trinity College before transferring to TCU. He is quick and athletic, and was obviously very productive last season, but like some other talented players in this draft, there are concerns about his character and maturity. Those concerns, along with a slow 40 time at the combine (4.93), could drop his draft stock.
Risers
Here are some players who have risen up draft boards as the draft approaches
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Gurley draft stock fell after his torn ACL, but has risen back up after he showed he is healthy. He is now projected by some to go in the top ten, which is high for a running back.
WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
There is a lot of buzz around the Central Florida product as the draft nears, as he has shot up draft boards and now looks like a sure first round pick, possibly in the top half of the round.
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
Another receiver who has risen up draft boards, Dorsett is a speedy (4.33 40) slot receiver in the mold of many other successful small receivers in the NFL (5'10", 183). Dorsett could be a first round pick.
WR Nelson Agholor, USC
Yet another receiver who has forced his way into the first round conversation, Agholor is a quick, instinctive pass-catcher who also has good return skills.
CB Eric Rowe, Utah
Rowe is a tall (6'1"), athletic defensive back who performed well at the combine and has shown up in some recent mock drafts in the first round.
Fallers
Here are some players who have slid down draft boards.
DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Many people still have Ray high, and some have him as high as number five, but many others have dropped him down to the 20's due to concern over a foot injury.
OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Gregory, a top-five talent, dropped out of the top five after failing a drug test at the combine (not his first failed drug test). Now he's projected mid-to-late first round, despite the obvious talent.
OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
Peat has the talent to be the first offensive lineman picked, but many have dropped him below other lineman, such as La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers.
LB Denzel Perryman, Miami
It seems Perryman has fallen out of first round consideration due to a slow 40 time (4.78) and a hamstring injury he suffered at his Pro Day.
CB P.J. Williams, Florida St.
Williams, who might have first round talent, hasn't done himself any favors with a less-than-stellar 40 time (4.57) and a DUI arrest earlier this month.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
2015 NFL Draft Primer: Best-Case Scenarios
When teams head into a draft (no matter the sport, whether it be NFL, MLB, NBA, or even fantasy sports), they obviously hope for the best-case scenario. They hope that everyone they pick turns out well, and that they don't make a haunting mistake and pass on a future star for a bust. In reality, of course, the best-case scenario rarely, if ever, happens. Someone a scout, coach, GM, or owner thinks will be highly productive for a long time may end up only being with the team for a short time. There are also cases where players let off-the-field problems get in the way, are blocked at their position, or were just drafted by the wrong team. Here are what I think would be the best-case scenarios for each of the 30 teams drafting in the first round (the Bills and Seahawks don't have picks). Remember, these scenarios probably won't happen, but they could.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one's pretty simple. The Bucs draft Jameis Winston first overall, and he matures enough to be a star right away (or they pick Marcus Mariota, and he stars right away). With deep threats Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, as well as running back Doug Martin (who bounces back from an injury-riddled 2014) and an improved offensive line, Tampa Bay's offense flourishes. They find some diamonds in the rough later in the draft to improve from below-average on defense to average on defense, and Lovie Smith shows he is closer to the coach he was in Chicago than the one he was last year in Tampa.
2. Tennessee Titans
The Titans receive a king's ransom from a desperate team (like the Browns or the Jets) for the opportunity to pick Marcus Mariota, and they use those picks to improve as much of their team as they possibly can. Zack Mettenberger turns into Tom Brady, Bishop Sankey breaks out in his sophomore year, creating a strong backfield with some late-round pick and Shonn Greene, Kendall Wright has as many yards a in 2013 (1,079) but as many (or more) touchdowns as in 2014 (6), number two receiver Justin Hunter keeps improving after showing promise last year, and number three receiver Harry Douglas, out from the shadows of Julio Jones and Roddy White, has a breakout year of his own.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags get defensive end Leonard Williams, a very powerful and talented player who turns out to be the best player in the draft, and possibly the next J.J. Watt (okay, maybe not). Blake Bortles makes a huge leap in his second year, showing Jacksonville why they picked him fifth overall. Denard Robinson shows what he did last year wasn't an anomaly, plus wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have big second seasons. The defense continues to improve, leading the league in sacks behind Williams, who wins Rookie of the Year.
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders get the best receiver in the draft (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White) and pair him with up-and-coming quarterback Derek Carr, who continues to play like a veteran. Running back Latavius Murray stays healthy and has a career year, playing more like another Murray did last year, and Trent Richardson... is still Trent Richardson. On defense, young guys Khalil Mack and Sio Moore and old guys Justin Tuck and Charles Woodson have successful seasons, leading a dangerous defense. Oh, and Sebastian Janikowski breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
5. Washington Redskins
They make up for the RGIII trade, getting a huge haul from a team that really wants Marcus Mariota (probably the Browns), and use those picks to rebuild their team. Owner Dan Snyder decides to change the team name (yeah, right) to the Red Dogs, satisfying Native Americans, but upsetting dogs. Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin III go on a bonding trip, and become close friends. RGIII stays healthy and plays more like he did his rookie season (only better). Running back Alfred Morris also plays more like his rookie season, and the defense is less awful than last season.
6. New York Jets
The Jets get Marcus Mariota without having to trade up, finally making fans forget about the likes of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. With Stevan Ridley joining Chris Ivory, the Jets are again among the best rushing teams in the league, and with Darrelle Revis back to join an already good defense, the Jets are one of the better overall teams in the league. They also beat Rex Ryan and the Bills each time they play them.
7. Chicago Bears
The Bears add Amari Cooper or Kevin White to replace Brandon Marshall, joining Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte to form one of the most dangerous groups of receiving options in the league. Jay Cutler takes advantage of those options and stops being Jay Cutler, resulting in a career year. He even smiles a few times. They also upgrade the defense, and they are good enough to allow the high-octane offense to win.
8. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons draft Vic Beasley, who becomes one of the most dangerous linebackers in the NFL, somehow turning Atlanta's horrible defense into an only slightly horrible defense. Matt Ryan goes back to being Matty Ice, throwing bombs to Roddy White and Julio Jones. And the actual crowd noise is so loud that they don't need to use artificial crowd noise.
9. New York Giants
The Giants strike gold again (remember OBJ?), drafting Missouri defensive end Shane Ray, who falls to them. Ray and Jason Pierre-Paul combine for 32 sacks. The deep stable of running backs play well, Victor Cruz plays so well he wins Dancing with the Stars, and Eli Manning remembers he has two rings and can just throw it anywhere within 10 feet of Odell Beckham Jr.
10. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are able to snatch Kevin White, who immediately becomes their best offensive player. Nick Foles shows that his magical season two years ago in fact wasn't due to magic or luck or talent around him, but his own skills, and Tre Mason shows that his impressive showing in a few games last season wasn't due to luck or a small sample size, but talent and good ball carrier vision. The defense continues playing great, now with an offense that can score for them. Also, Greg the Leg (Greg Zurlein) breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota drafts wide receiver DeVante Parker, reuniting him with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The familiarity helps Bridgewater immensely, as he has a wonderful second season. So does Parker, making people reminisce about their days at Louisville. Running back Jerick McKinnon continues his surprising play from last season, and the defense plays just as well against the pass (7th last season) and much better vs. the run (25th last season).
12. Cleveland Browns
The Browns don't make a desperation move to trade up for Marcus Mariota, instead staying put and picking DeVante Parker or Kevin White, giving them a supremely talented wide receiver who doesn't have a history of drug problems. Johnny Manziel makes a comeback from his poor play last season and trip to rehab, making money signs left and right as he becomes Cleveland's biggest savior since LeBron.
13. New Orleans Saints
The Saints take a chance on troubled linebacker Randy Gregory, and he overcomes his off-the-field problems to show that he was a steal at 13. Drew Brees shows he is still an elite quarterback, and the leaky defense greatly improves. They still miss Jimmy Graham, but they do well without him.
14. Miami Dolphins
Miami picks a wide receiver (perhaps DeVante Parker or Central Florida's Breshad Perriman), who turns about to be better than recently departed Mike Wallace. Whoever they draft teams with Jarvis Landry to create a talented pair of receiving threats for Ryan Tannehil, who continues to show great improvement. The defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, also performs well.
15. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners draft Danny Shelton or Arik Armstead to beef up their defensive line, strengthening a defense that finished fifth in opponent rushing yards and seventh in opponent passing yards last year but took some hits in the offseason. On the other side of the ball, Colin Kaepernick silences the critics and Carlos Hyde proves a worthy successor to Frank Gore. Also, what's-his-face (I just looked it up; his name is Jim Tomsula) proves to be just as good of a coach as Jim Harbaugh (or better), but with less screaming.
16. Houston Texans
Houston, after losing Andre Johnson, picks talented but troubled wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, straightens him out, and watches him destroy opposing secondaries. They also watch Arian Foster continue to destroy opposing defenses and J.J. Watt continue to destroy opposing offenses. J.J. Watt finishes in the top half of the league in touchdown catches by tight ends, and Brian Hoyer plays more like he did at the beginning of last season than the end of last season.
17. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers trade Phillip Rivers, giving him what he wants (not to move to L.A.) and giving them what they want (a high pick they can use to draft Marcus Mariota). Antonio Gates continues producing late in his career, and Malcolm Floyd, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Oliver have big years. Manti Te'o and the defense has a big year, almost making people forget that he was catfished. Te'o and Mariota form the best duo of Hawaiian NFL teammates ever.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs pick a receiver who will score touchdowns, and he does score touchdowns. Jamaal Charles also scores touchdowns (many of them), and Alex Smith continues to be a magnificent game manager. Linebacker Justin Houston gets 20 sacks, and the defense dominates. The team plays so well that they could be coached by the fake Andy Reid and still win.
19. Cleveland Browns
The Browns hold on to both of their first round picks, as well as their other eight draft picks. They draft talented running back Todd Gurley here, putting him with promising backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell to form a formidable trio of running backs. They also find some gems later in the draft (like they did last year), and they form a bright young team to go with their bright new uniforms.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
Chip Kelly resists reuniting with Marcus Mariota, instead getting a much-needed outside linebacker (perhaps Kentucky's Bud Dupree?) or defensive back (perhaps Alabama's Landon Collins?).Sam Bradford stays healthy and plays well TIM TEBOW DOES TIM TEBOW THINGS, DeMarco Murray repeats last year, and Chip Kelly is hailed as not only a great coach, but a great decision-maker, and possibly (though probably not) a 2016 Presidential candidate.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals draft a defensive back, shoring up their defense and making it one nobody wants to face. Andy Dalton shows a lot more Good Andy than Bad Andy, Jordan Hill and Gio Bernard are one of the best running back tandems in the league, and Marvin Lewis suddenly becomes a much better coach.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers pick a safety to fill Troy Polamalu's footsteps, and he fills them admirably. Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing touchdown passes, Le'Veon Bell keeps running over people, Antonio Brown keeps kung fu fighting people, and the defense plays like Pittsburgh defenses of old.
23. Detroit Lions
Detroit gets a ferocious defensive tackle to fill the hole left by Ndomakong Suh (possibly Malcolm Brown from Texas or, if he's available, Danny Shelton from Washington). Calvin Johnson continues being Calvin Johnson, Joique Bell produces in the absence of Reggie Bush, and the defense, now with Haloti Ngata and the first round pick, becomes the best in the league (they were the best in the league in run defense last year; they were 13th against the pass).
24. Arizona Cardinals
The Cards get Bud Dupree, filling a depleted spot in their defense. Carson Palmer bounces back from injury and shows he's still got it (well, he's got enough, at least), Andre Ellington shows he can be Arizona's featured back, and Larry Fitzgerald shows he's still got it, as well. The secondary, led by Patrick Patterson and Tyrann Mathieu, leads the league in interceptions, and the defense plays just fine without former defensive coordinator (now Jets coach) Todd Bowles.
25. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers select an offensive lineman to better protect Cam Newton, and they do better protect Cam Newton. This allows Newton to make even more strides in his passing development, and put up career numbers. Luke Kuechly leads the league in tackles and wins Defensive Player of the Year, and Kelvin Benjamin has a wonderful second year.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore gets a receiver to pair with Steve Smith Sr., helping Joe Flacco remind people of his playoff run the year they won the Super Bowl. Justin Forsett has another great season on the ground, and the defense remains strong despite the loss of Haloti Ngata.
27. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys draft a running back to replace DeMarco Murray (either Georgia's Todd Gurley or Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon), and the rookie hits the ground running. Tony Romo continues quietly performing well despite all the criticism (he will never be able to get rid of the criticism and jokes, despite how well he has performed, until he wins a ring), and the defense improves with the help of some later draft picks.
28. Denver Broncos
The Broncos upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Peyton Manning. Manning plays more like two years ago and less like late last season, the defense pays very well, and Denver uses a second or third round pick on a tight end to fill the hole left by Julius Thomas.
29. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts upgrade their offensive line, adding protection forPeyton Manning Andrew Luck. Luck plays more like two years ago last year (and the year before) and less like late last season 25 years ago, the defense plays well, and the addition of veteran playmakers Frank Gore and Andre Johnson pays dividends on and off the field.
30. Green Bay Packers
The Packers upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers upgrade their secondary, drafting a corner. The offense is still very dangerous, with elite quarterback Aaron Rodgers, talented receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and workhorse back Eddie Lacy, and the defense gets better.
31. New Orleans Saints
The Saints add a defensive lineman to try to plug their porous defense (along with the linebacker at 13), Drew Brees silences the doubters with a magnificent season, Benjamin Watson plays as well as Jimmy Graham (I'm kidding, I'm kidding), and Mark Ingram continues playing well.
32. New England Patriots
The Patriots already got the best-case scenario, so it doesn't really matter what happens here. They still have Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and spare parts who seem to work out most of the time. Oh, and the title of defending Super Bowl champs. But maybe they can finally draft a productive defensive back (although that may be a bit overblown).
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one's pretty simple. The Bucs draft Jameis Winston first overall, and he matures enough to be a star right away (or they pick Marcus Mariota, and he stars right away). With deep threats Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, as well as running back Doug Martin (who bounces back from an injury-riddled 2014) and an improved offensive line, Tampa Bay's offense flourishes. They find some diamonds in the rough later in the draft to improve from below-average on defense to average on defense, and Lovie Smith shows he is closer to the coach he was in Chicago than the one he was last year in Tampa.
2. Tennessee Titans
The Titans receive a king's ransom from a desperate team (like the Browns or the Jets) for the opportunity to pick Marcus Mariota, and they use those picks to improve as much of their team as they possibly can. Zack Mettenberger turns into Tom Brady, Bishop Sankey breaks out in his sophomore year, creating a strong backfield with some late-round pick and Shonn Greene, Kendall Wright has as many yards a in 2013 (1,079) but as many (or more) touchdowns as in 2014 (6), number two receiver Justin Hunter keeps improving after showing promise last year, and number three receiver Harry Douglas, out from the shadows of Julio Jones and Roddy White, has a breakout year of his own.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags get defensive end Leonard Williams, a very powerful and talented player who turns out to be the best player in the draft, and possibly the next J.J. Watt (okay, maybe not). Blake Bortles makes a huge leap in his second year, showing Jacksonville why they picked him fifth overall. Denard Robinson shows what he did last year wasn't an anomaly, plus wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have big second seasons. The defense continues to improve, leading the league in sacks behind Williams, who wins Rookie of the Year.
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders get the best receiver in the draft (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White) and pair him with up-and-coming quarterback Derek Carr, who continues to play like a veteran. Running back Latavius Murray stays healthy and has a career year, playing more like another Murray did last year, and Trent Richardson... is still Trent Richardson. On defense, young guys Khalil Mack and Sio Moore and old guys Justin Tuck and Charles Woodson have successful seasons, leading a dangerous defense. Oh, and Sebastian Janikowski breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
5. Washington Redskins
They make up for the RGIII trade, getting a huge haul from a team that really wants Marcus Mariota (probably the Browns), and use those picks to rebuild their team. Owner Dan Snyder decides to change the team name (yeah, right) to the Red Dogs, satisfying Native Americans, but upsetting dogs. Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin III go on a bonding trip, and become close friends. RGIII stays healthy and plays more like he did his rookie season (only better). Running back Alfred Morris also plays more like his rookie season, and the defense is less awful than last season.
6. New York Jets
The Jets get Marcus Mariota without having to trade up, finally making fans forget about the likes of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. With Stevan Ridley joining Chris Ivory, the Jets are again among the best rushing teams in the league, and with Darrelle Revis back to join an already good defense, the Jets are one of the better overall teams in the league. They also beat Rex Ryan and the Bills each time they play them.
7. Chicago Bears
The Bears add Amari Cooper or Kevin White to replace Brandon Marshall, joining Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte to form one of the most dangerous groups of receiving options in the league. Jay Cutler takes advantage of those options and stops being Jay Cutler, resulting in a career year. He even smiles a few times. They also upgrade the defense, and they are good enough to allow the high-octane offense to win.
8. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons draft Vic Beasley, who becomes one of the most dangerous linebackers in the NFL, somehow turning Atlanta's horrible defense into an only slightly horrible defense. Matt Ryan goes back to being Matty Ice, throwing bombs to Roddy White and Julio Jones. And the actual crowd noise is so loud that they don't need to use artificial crowd noise.
9. New York Giants
The Giants strike gold again (remember OBJ?), drafting Missouri defensive end Shane Ray, who falls to them. Ray and Jason Pierre-Paul combine for 32 sacks. The deep stable of running backs play well, Victor Cruz plays so well he wins Dancing with the Stars, and Eli Manning remembers he has two rings and can just throw it anywhere within 10 feet of Odell Beckham Jr.
10. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are able to snatch Kevin White, who immediately becomes their best offensive player. Nick Foles shows that his magical season two years ago in fact wasn't due to magic or luck or talent around him, but his own skills, and Tre Mason shows that his impressive showing in a few games last season wasn't due to luck or a small sample size, but talent and good ball carrier vision. The defense continues playing great, now with an offense that can score for them. Also, Greg the Leg (Greg Zurlein) breaks the NFL record for longest field goal.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota drafts wide receiver DeVante Parker, reuniting him with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The familiarity helps Bridgewater immensely, as he has a wonderful second season. So does Parker, making people reminisce about their days at Louisville. Running back Jerick McKinnon continues his surprising play from last season, and the defense plays just as well against the pass (7th last season) and much better vs. the run (25th last season).
12. Cleveland Browns
The Browns don't make a desperation move to trade up for Marcus Mariota, instead staying put and picking DeVante Parker or Kevin White, giving them a supremely talented wide receiver who doesn't have a history of drug problems. Johnny Manziel makes a comeback from his poor play last season and trip to rehab, making money signs left and right as he becomes Cleveland's biggest savior since LeBron.
13. New Orleans Saints
The Saints take a chance on troubled linebacker Randy Gregory, and he overcomes his off-the-field problems to show that he was a steal at 13. Drew Brees shows he is still an elite quarterback, and the leaky defense greatly improves. They still miss Jimmy Graham, but they do well without him.
14. Miami Dolphins
Miami picks a wide receiver (perhaps DeVante Parker or Central Florida's Breshad Perriman), who turns about to be better than recently departed Mike Wallace. Whoever they draft teams with Jarvis Landry to create a talented pair of receiving threats for Ryan Tannehil, who continues to show great improvement. The defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, also performs well.
15. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners draft Danny Shelton or Arik Armstead to beef up their defensive line, strengthening a defense that finished fifth in opponent rushing yards and seventh in opponent passing yards last year but took some hits in the offseason. On the other side of the ball, Colin Kaepernick silences the critics and Carlos Hyde proves a worthy successor to Frank Gore. Also, what's-his-face (I just looked it up; his name is Jim Tomsula) proves to be just as good of a coach as Jim Harbaugh (or better), but with less screaming.
16. Houston Texans
Houston, after losing Andre Johnson, picks talented but troubled wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, straightens him out, and watches him destroy opposing secondaries. They also watch Arian Foster continue to destroy opposing defenses and J.J. Watt continue to destroy opposing offenses. J.J. Watt finishes in the top half of the league in touchdown catches by tight ends, and Brian Hoyer plays more like he did at the beginning of last season than the end of last season.
17. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers trade Phillip Rivers, giving him what he wants (not to move to L.A.) and giving them what they want (a high pick they can use to draft Marcus Mariota). Antonio Gates continues producing late in his career, and Malcolm Floyd, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Oliver have big years. Manti Te'o and the defense has a big year, almost making people forget that he was catfished. Te'o and Mariota form the best duo of Hawaiian NFL teammates ever.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs pick a receiver who will score touchdowns, and he does score touchdowns. Jamaal Charles also scores touchdowns (many of them), and Alex Smith continues to be a magnificent game manager. Linebacker Justin Houston gets 20 sacks, and the defense dominates. The team plays so well that they could be coached by the fake Andy Reid and still win.
19. Cleveland Browns
The Browns hold on to both of their first round picks, as well as their other eight draft picks. They draft talented running back Todd Gurley here, putting him with promising backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell to form a formidable trio of running backs. They also find some gems later in the draft (like they did last year), and they form a bright young team to go with their bright new uniforms.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
Chip Kelly resists reuniting with Marcus Mariota, instead getting a much-needed outside linebacker (perhaps Kentucky's Bud Dupree?) or defensive back (perhaps Alabama's Landon Collins?).
21. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals draft a defensive back, shoring up their defense and making it one nobody wants to face. Andy Dalton shows a lot more Good Andy than Bad Andy, Jordan Hill and Gio Bernard are one of the best running back tandems in the league, and Marvin Lewis suddenly becomes a much better coach.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers pick a safety to fill Troy Polamalu's footsteps, and he fills them admirably. Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing touchdown passes, Le'Veon Bell keeps running over people, Antonio Brown keeps kung fu fighting people, and the defense plays like Pittsburgh defenses of old.
23. Detroit Lions
Detroit gets a ferocious defensive tackle to fill the hole left by Ndomakong Suh (possibly Malcolm Brown from Texas or, if he's available, Danny Shelton from Washington). Calvin Johnson continues being Calvin Johnson, Joique Bell produces in the absence of Reggie Bush, and the defense, now with Haloti Ngata and the first round pick, becomes the best in the league (they were the best in the league in run defense last year; they were 13th against the pass).
24. Arizona Cardinals
The Cards get Bud Dupree, filling a depleted spot in their defense. Carson Palmer bounces back from injury and shows he's still got it (well, he's got enough, at least), Andre Ellington shows he can be Arizona's featured back, and Larry Fitzgerald shows he's still got it, as well. The secondary, led by Patrick Patterson and Tyrann Mathieu, leads the league in interceptions, and the defense plays just fine without former defensive coordinator (now Jets coach) Todd Bowles.
25. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers select an offensive lineman to better protect Cam Newton, and they do better protect Cam Newton. This allows Newton to make even more strides in his passing development, and put up career numbers. Luke Kuechly leads the league in tackles and wins Defensive Player of the Year, and Kelvin Benjamin has a wonderful second year.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore gets a receiver to pair with Steve Smith Sr., helping Joe Flacco remind people of his playoff run the year they won the Super Bowl. Justin Forsett has another great season on the ground, and the defense remains strong despite the loss of Haloti Ngata.
27. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys draft a running back to replace DeMarco Murray (either Georgia's Todd Gurley or Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon), and the rookie hits the ground running. Tony Romo continues quietly performing well despite all the criticism (he will never be able to get rid of the criticism and jokes, despite how well he has performed, until he wins a ring), and the defense improves with the help of some later draft picks.
28. Denver Broncos
The Broncos upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for Peyton Manning. Manning plays more like two years ago and less like late last season, the defense pays very well, and Denver uses a second or third round pick on a tight end to fill the hole left by Julius Thomas.
29. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts upgrade their offensive line, adding protection for
30. Green Bay Packers
31. New Orleans Saints
The Saints add a defensive lineman to try to plug their porous defense (along with the linebacker at 13), Drew Brees silences the doubters with a magnificent season, Benjamin Watson plays as well as Jimmy Graham (I'm kidding, I'm kidding), and Mark Ingram continues playing well.
32. New England Patriots
The Patriots already got the best-case scenario, so it doesn't really matter what happens here. They still have Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and spare parts who seem to work out most of the time. Oh, and the title of defending Super Bowl champs. But maybe they can finally draft a productive defensive back (although that may be a bit overblown).
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
2015 MLB Preview: Breakouts, Busts, and Predictions
It's that time of year again. The days get longer, the weather gets nicer (usually), and America's Pastime starts back up again. I know it's a coupled of days late, but here's my little 2015 MLB Preview, where I go through potential breakout and bust candidates (this isn't necessarily who I think will breakout/bust, but who I think is the most likely to), as well as my season predictions. Let's get to it.
Note: Triple-slash lines (-/-/-) are batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage; WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is from Fangraphs.
Note: Triple-slash lines (-/-/-) are batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage; WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is from Fangraphs.
Potential Breakout Candidates (Teams)-teams primed for a big 2015 season
Toronto Blue Jays: The Red Sox might be an obvious choice to "breakout" after a very down year in 2014, but they don't exactly fit the mold of a breakout candidate. The Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup (featuring prodigious power hitters Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista) that got even better during the offseason after they acquired all-around catcher Russell Martin and All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson. The one question might be the pitching, led by veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as the young Drew Hutchison. But if top prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris make strong impressions, they will be playoff contenders.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians took a big step forward last year, thanks to breakout performances by left fielder Michael Brantley (.327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 23 SB) and starting pitcher Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44 ERA), who won the AL Cy Young award. Those two may not quite reach those stats, but they are definitely the real deal. The Tribe also has other breakout candidates in starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, underrated talents Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, and Jason Kipnis, and top prospect Francisco Lindor on the horizon.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners greatly improved last year after signing Robinson Cano and some other big bats, and they could take another step this year. They signed Nelson Cruz, who hit 40 home runs last year, this offseason, and they still have Felix Hernandez, one of the most consistently dominant pitchers in baseball. Add to that the questions facing the other AL West contenders (Angels: pitching; A's: completely new team) and the Mariners are a trendy pick to win the division.
Miami Marlins: Miami has a talented young core with outfielders Giancarlo Stanton (.288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 105 RBI in 2014), Marcell Ozuna (.269/.317/.455, 23 HR, 85 RBI), and Christian Yelich (.284/.362/.402, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 21 SB), and starting pitchers Jose Fernandez (whose recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Henderson Alvarez (12-7, 2.65 ERA in 2014), and they added to that in the offseason, acquiring starting pitcher Mat Latos and second baseman Dee Gordon in trades. In a weak division (other than the Nationals), the Marlins could definitely make the playoffs this year (although they aren't looking very good so far).
Chicago Cubs: The Cubbies have been the talk of the league, and while I'm not as bullish on them as others (they play in a tough division, and their opening night performance didn't impress), there is no denying that they are on the rise. They hired Joe Maddon as manager in the offseason, adding a savvy skipper who helped lead the Rays out of the cellar and into the playoffs. They have tons of young talent, including Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant, and they have a decent rotation fronted by free agent signee Jon Lester. This could be the year they break the streak (I think they're a year away), and according to Back To The Future 2, they will.
San Diego Padres: Padres GM A.J. Preller is like me in MLB: The Show. He just can't stop trading. This offseason, he traded for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris, and Sunday he traded for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel and The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Upton (now Melvin Upton Jr.), reuniting the Upton brothers yet again. Their offense will be greatly improved, but their defense may be a bit shaky. The key may be the rotation, led by free agent signee James Shields.
Potential Bust Candidates (Teams)-Teams that could decline
Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore won the AL East last year despite rocky seasons for All-Stars Matt Wieters (played just 26 games due to injury), Manny Machado (played just 82 games due to injury), and Chris Davis (hit just .196 and was suspended at the end of the season), and a rotation without a real ace (Chris Tillman is the number one starter). Over the winter, they lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and didn't gain anyone of significance. They do still have a good bullpen and strong defense, and they have (in my opinion) a very good manager in Buck Showalter, but they are still plagued by injuries (Wieters and J.J. Hardy are starting the season on the disabled list) and didn't improve their team as division rivals got better.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals were the feel-good story last year, making it to the World Series after years of missing the playoffs. They then lost outfielder Nori Aioki and top starter James Shields and signed veterans Alex Rios (.280/.311/.398, 4 HR, 0.1 WAR last year in Texas) and Kendrys Morales (.218/.274/.338, 8 HR, -1.8 WAR for two teams). They still have the core from last year, but their starting pitching is a question mark, their bullpen, although very good, probably won't repeat last year, and the Indians and White Sox have gotten better.
Oakland Athletics: I still believe the A's, like the Orioles, will contend (because you never bet against Billy Beane), but the A's, in typical Billy Beane fashion, cleaned out their roster from last year and brought in a lot of new guys. Gone are Derek Norris, John Jaso, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, and Jeff Samardija. In are Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, and Yunel Escobar. It will be interesting to see how this works out, but they lost a lot of talent, and still have to compete with L.A. and Seattle.
Atlanta Braves: The NL East has no real bust candidate, since the Nationals are World Series favorites, the Marlins and Mets are breakout candidates, and the Braves and Phillies are cellar-dwellers. The Braves have basically called it a season already (on paper, at least), having traded excellent defender Jason Heyward, power hitter Evan Gattis, and flamethrowing closer Craig Kimbrel. They do have a promising rotation (led by Shelby Miller), but their lineup isn't very good.
Milwaukee Brewers: I will not put the Reds here, no matter what the pundits say. The Brewers led the division for much of last year before faltering down the stretch. Their rotation doesn't look to be good (now without Yovani Gallardo), and their lineup, aside from Jonatahan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun, isn't that imposing.
San Francisco Giants: It's an odd-numbered year, which means the Giants probably won't make the playoffs. They also just aren't as good. They lost some key players, including Pablo Sandoval, and starting pitcher Matt Cain is experiencing pain that is forcing him to miss (at least) his first start. They still have the magnificent battery of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, and Joe Panik is a good young player. But history and the numbers say the defending champs won't repeat.
Potential Breakout Candidates (Players)-players that could be primed for a big 2015 (rookies weren't considered, since they don't have MLB past performance to improve on)
Red Sox CF Mookie Betts: The 22-year-old Betts is a popular pick to breakout. He has a good combination of on-base skills and speed, and many believe he has the tools to become a star. He has certainly showed that so far. Last year in 52 games, he hit .291 with a .368 on-base percentage, and on Opening Day he had two hits, including a home run.
Indians SP Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco, who signed a four-year extension with Cleveland on Sunday, was overshadowed by Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last year. Carrasco, in 14 starts (plus multiple relief appearances), had a 2.55 ERA and 140 strikeouts. He could be the next Indians starting pitcher to break through.
A's SP Jesse Hahn: Pitching behind ace Sonny Gray, Hahn got to the big leagues last year and started 12 games, amassing a 7-4 record and a 3.07 ERA. Now he'll get a full season to build on the good start.
Marlins LF Christian Yelich: Yelich showed great all-around skills in his first full season (he played in 62 games in 2013), hitting .284 with a .362 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and 21 stolen bases (plus a Gold Glove). He's likely to get even better this year.
Pirates RF Gregory Polanco: Polanco received much fanfare last year after tearing up Triple-A, and began his Major League career hot. But he then cooled off significantly, losing playing time towards the end of the season. However, he definitely has talent, and he will get a chance to show that talent this year on a potential playoff contender.
Diamondbacks CF A.J. Pollock: A fractured hand ended a promising 2014 campaign early (he hit .302 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in 75 games), and his breakout will likely continue this year.
Potential Bust Candidates (Players)-players who could decline (relievers weren't considered, since their performance vary so widely year-to-year)
Red Sox RF Shane Victorino: The 34-year-old Victorino won the starting job over Cuban signee Rusney Castillo, but it probably won't be long until Castillo overtakes the injury-prone veteran (Victorino played in just 30 games last year).
Tigers SP Alfredo Simon: The 33-year-old Simon had a renaissance year last season, winning 15 games and making the All-Star team for the Reds. Before last season, the veteran was at best a solid reliever, so don't expect a repeat performance.
Angels SP Matt Shoemaker: Shoemaker had a breakout campaign last season (16-4, 3.04 ERA), but his minor league statistics (3.42 ERA) suggest a regression this year.
Nationals RF Jayson Werth: Werth had a very good season last year (.292/.394/.455, 16 HR, 82 RBI), but he's 35 and is currently on the DL.
Brewers RF Ryan Braun: Braun hit 19 home runs last year, but he was only worth 0.8 Wins Above Replacement. He's not what he was in 2012 (when he was worth 7.3 WAR), and injuries and age are creeping up on him.
Diamondbacks SP Josh Collmenter: Collmenter is somehow the D-Backs' number one starter after a 2014 in which he went 11-9 with a 3.46 ERA (that shows you how good the D-Backs are probably going to be).
Predictions
Remember, I am a prophet and all of these predictions are and will be completely right. Just look at my NCAA Tournament picks (I had Wisconsin over Utah this year, and Creighton winning it all last year). I also hate your team, which is why I didn't pick them to win it all. Seriously.
AL East:
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
This is a competitive division, and at first I went back and forth between the Red Sox and Orioles. Then I realized the Blue Jays probably have a better lineup than the Orioles. I think it will come down to the wire between Toronto and Baltimore for the second spot, and Boston's talent just can't be ignored.
AL Central:
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Twins
I think four of the five teams could potentially win this division, and I think a team other than the Tigers will win it next year. But they'll have enough for another division title this year.
AL West:
Mariners
Athletics
Angels
Astros
Rangers
The Mariners, A's, and Angels will probably be battling for the division all season, but I think this may be the Mariners' year. The top three could go in any order, though.
AL Champs: Blue Jays
This is a bit of a bold prediction, but I have to have one somewhere. The Blue Jays have the offensive firepower to contend, with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson in the middle of the order. Like I said, the question will be the pitching, and whether Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris succeed in their rookie seasons.
AL MVP: Angels CF Mike Trout
No explanation needed here.
AL Cy Young: Mariners SP Felix Hernandez
Not much explanation needed here, either, but he'll more than likely win it if the Mariners win the AL West.
AL Rookie of the Year: Blue Jays SP Daniel Norris
This race is much more wide open than the National League race, with young pitchers like Norris, Aaron Sanchez, and the White Sox Carlos Rodon, as well as reclamation project Steven Souza Jr and Cuban import Rusney Castillo. But Norris intrigues me. That's all I've got.
NL East
Nationals
Marlins
Mets
Braves
Phillies
This is basically a two or three team race (regardless of what the early results suggest). The Mets may make a surprise run. I originally had the Marlins winning the division, but after their first two games, I'm not confident enough in them to pick them to beat the stacked Nationals.
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Cubs
Brewers
Being a Reds fan, I truly believe in the Reds this year. However, the Cardinals are the class of the division, and they are just as good this year as any year. The Reds and Pirates (and possibly the Cubs) will battle for the Wild Card.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks
The Dodgers are an obvious favorite in this division, and I don't think the bottom three teams will be close late in the season. The interesting team here is the Padres. I could see them, with their offensive talent, winning the division. I could also see them, with their questionable defense, missing the playoffs. I have them barely missing the playoffs here, but I could see them in the postseason.
NL Champs: Dodgers
I can't be too bold, so I have the mighty Dodgers winning the National League. They have the best pitcher in Major League Baseball and many great hitters/all-around players, including Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jimmy Rollins. They will have competition from the Cardinals (who are always postseason threats) and Nationals (who never seem to meet their lofty expectations).
NL MVP: Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton
I wanted to pick Andrew McCutchen, but he probably won't win unless the Pirates make the playoffs, and I don't have them in (because of my "homer" pick, the Reds). So I chose the mighty Giancarlo Stanton of the surprise Miami Marlins. He will more than likely hit the most home runs, as his scary hit by pitch late last year doesn't seem to have affected him.
NL Cy Young: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw
No explanation needed here.
NL Rookie of the Year: Cubs 3B Kris Bryant
Bryant looks ready to bash in the big leagues (as soon as the Cubs call him up in mid-April), and the only other strong candidates I can think of is L.A.'s Joc Pederson and maybe Arizona's Yasmany Tomas. I don't think Bryant will put up MVP-type numbers (temper your expectations a bit), but I do think he will put up Rookie of the Year-type numbers.
World Series Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are too good not to make it to the World Series sometime soon (although the same could be said about the Nationals), and they may this year. I am not at all confident in my picks, but oh well. L.A. is good.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Red Sox might be an obvious choice to "breakout" after a very down year in 2014, but they don't exactly fit the mold of a breakout candidate. The Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup (featuring prodigious power hitters Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista) that got even better during the offseason after they acquired all-around catcher Russell Martin and All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson. The one question might be the pitching, led by veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as the young Drew Hutchison. But if top prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris make strong impressions, they will be playoff contenders.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians took a big step forward last year, thanks to breakout performances by left fielder Michael Brantley (.327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 23 SB) and starting pitcher Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44 ERA), who won the AL Cy Young award. Those two may not quite reach those stats, but they are definitely the real deal. The Tribe also has other breakout candidates in starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, underrated talents Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, and Jason Kipnis, and top prospect Francisco Lindor on the horizon.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners greatly improved last year after signing Robinson Cano and some other big bats, and they could take another step this year. They signed Nelson Cruz, who hit 40 home runs last year, this offseason, and they still have Felix Hernandez, one of the most consistently dominant pitchers in baseball. Add to that the questions facing the other AL West contenders (Angels: pitching; A's: completely new team) and the Mariners are a trendy pick to win the division.
Miami Marlins: Miami has a talented young core with outfielders Giancarlo Stanton (.288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 105 RBI in 2014), Marcell Ozuna (.269/.317/.455, 23 HR, 85 RBI), and Christian Yelich (.284/.362/.402, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 21 SB), and starting pitchers Jose Fernandez (whose recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Henderson Alvarez (12-7, 2.65 ERA in 2014), and they added to that in the offseason, acquiring starting pitcher Mat Latos and second baseman Dee Gordon in trades. In a weak division (other than the Nationals), the Marlins could definitely make the playoffs this year (although they aren't looking very good so far).
Chicago Cubs: The Cubbies have been the talk of the league, and while I'm not as bullish on them as others (they play in a tough division, and their opening night performance didn't impress), there is no denying that they are on the rise. They hired Joe Maddon as manager in the offseason, adding a savvy skipper who helped lead the Rays out of the cellar and into the playoffs. They have tons of young talent, including Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant, and they have a decent rotation fronted by free agent signee Jon Lester. This could be the year they break the streak (I think they're a year away), and according to Back To The Future 2, they will.
San Diego Padres: Padres GM A.J. Preller is like me in MLB: The Show. He just can't stop trading. This offseason, he traded for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris, and Sunday he traded for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel and The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Upton (now Melvin Upton Jr.), reuniting the Upton brothers yet again. Their offense will be greatly improved, but their defense may be a bit shaky. The key may be the rotation, led by free agent signee James Shields.
Potential Bust Candidates (Teams)-Teams that could decline
Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore won the AL East last year despite rocky seasons for All-Stars Matt Wieters (played just 26 games due to injury), Manny Machado (played just 82 games due to injury), and Chris Davis (hit just .196 and was suspended at the end of the season), and a rotation without a real ace (Chris Tillman is the number one starter). Over the winter, they lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and didn't gain anyone of significance. They do still have a good bullpen and strong defense, and they have (in my opinion) a very good manager in Buck Showalter, but they are still plagued by injuries (Wieters and J.J. Hardy are starting the season on the disabled list) and didn't improve their team as division rivals got better.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals were the feel-good story last year, making it to the World Series after years of missing the playoffs. They then lost outfielder Nori Aioki and top starter James Shields and signed veterans Alex Rios (.280/.311/.398, 4 HR, 0.1 WAR last year in Texas) and Kendrys Morales (.218/.274/.338, 8 HR, -1.8 WAR for two teams). They still have the core from last year, but their starting pitching is a question mark, their bullpen, although very good, probably won't repeat last year, and the Indians and White Sox have gotten better.
Oakland Athletics: I still believe the A's, like the Orioles, will contend (because you never bet against Billy Beane), but the A's, in typical Billy Beane fashion, cleaned out their roster from last year and brought in a lot of new guys. Gone are Derek Norris, John Jaso, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, and Jeff Samardija. In are Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, and Yunel Escobar. It will be interesting to see how this works out, but they lost a lot of talent, and still have to compete with L.A. and Seattle.
Atlanta Braves: The NL East has no real bust candidate, since the Nationals are World Series favorites, the Marlins and Mets are breakout candidates, and the Braves and Phillies are cellar-dwellers. The Braves have basically called it a season already (on paper, at least), having traded excellent defender Jason Heyward, power hitter Evan Gattis, and flamethrowing closer Craig Kimbrel. They do have a promising rotation (led by Shelby Miller), but their lineup isn't very good.
Milwaukee Brewers: I will not put the Reds here, no matter what the pundits say. The Brewers led the division for much of last year before faltering down the stretch. Their rotation doesn't look to be good (now without Yovani Gallardo), and their lineup, aside from Jonatahan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun, isn't that imposing.
San Francisco Giants: It's an odd-numbered year, which means the Giants probably won't make the playoffs. They also just aren't as good. They lost some key players, including Pablo Sandoval, and starting pitcher Matt Cain is experiencing pain that is forcing him to miss (at least) his first start. They still have the magnificent battery of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, and Joe Panik is a good young player. But history and the numbers say the defending champs won't repeat.
Potential Breakout Candidates (Players)-players that could be primed for a big 2015 (rookies weren't considered, since they don't have MLB past performance to improve on)
Red Sox CF Mookie Betts: The 22-year-old Betts is a popular pick to breakout. He has a good combination of on-base skills and speed, and many believe he has the tools to become a star. He has certainly showed that so far. Last year in 52 games, he hit .291 with a .368 on-base percentage, and on Opening Day he had two hits, including a home run.
Indians SP Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco, who signed a four-year extension with Cleveland on Sunday, was overshadowed by Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last year. Carrasco, in 14 starts (plus multiple relief appearances), had a 2.55 ERA and 140 strikeouts. He could be the next Indians starting pitcher to break through.
A's SP Jesse Hahn: Pitching behind ace Sonny Gray, Hahn got to the big leagues last year and started 12 games, amassing a 7-4 record and a 3.07 ERA. Now he'll get a full season to build on the good start.
Marlins LF Christian Yelich: Yelich showed great all-around skills in his first full season (he played in 62 games in 2013), hitting .284 with a .362 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and 21 stolen bases (plus a Gold Glove). He's likely to get even better this year.
Pirates RF Gregory Polanco: Polanco received much fanfare last year after tearing up Triple-A, and began his Major League career hot. But he then cooled off significantly, losing playing time towards the end of the season. However, he definitely has talent, and he will get a chance to show that talent this year on a potential playoff contender.
Diamondbacks CF A.J. Pollock: A fractured hand ended a promising 2014 campaign early (he hit .302 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in 75 games), and his breakout will likely continue this year.
Potential Bust Candidates (Players)-players who could decline (relievers weren't considered, since their performance vary so widely year-to-year)
Red Sox RF Shane Victorino: The 34-year-old Victorino won the starting job over Cuban signee Rusney Castillo, but it probably won't be long until Castillo overtakes the injury-prone veteran (Victorino played in just 30 games last year).
Tigers SP Alfredo Simon: The 33-year-old Simon had a renaissance year last season, winning 15 games and making the All-Star team for the Reds. Before last season, the veteran was at best a solid reliever, so don't expect a repeat performance.
Angels SP Matt Shoemaker: Shoemaker had a breakout campaign last season (16-4, 3.04 ERA), but his minor league statistics (3.42 ERA) suggest a regression this year.
Nationals RF Jayson Werth: Werth had a very good season last year (.292/.394/.455, 16 HR, 82 RBI), but he's 35 and is currently on the DL.
Brewers RF Ryan Braun: Braun hit 19 home runs last year, but he was only worth 0.8 Wins Above Replacement. He's not what he was in 2012 (when he was worth 7.3 WAR), and injuries and age are creeping up on him.
Diamondbacks SP Josh Collmenter: Collmenter is somehow the D-Backs' number one starter after a 2014 in which he went 11-9 with a 3.46 ERA (that shows you how good the D-Backs are probably going to be).
Predictions
Remember, I am a prophet and all of these predictions are and will be completely right. Just look at my NCAA Tournament picks (I had Wisconsin over Utah this year, and Creighton winning it all last year). I also hate your team, which is why I didn't pick them to win it all. Seriously.
AL East:
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
This is a competitive division, and at first I went back and forth between the Red Sox and Orioles. Then I realized the Blue Jays probably have a better lineup than the Orioles. I think it will come down to the wire between Toronto and Baltimore for the second spot, and Boston's talent just can't be ignored.
AL Central:
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Twins
I think four of the five teams could potentially win this division, and I think a team other than the Tigers will win it next year. But they'll have enough for another division title this year.
AL West:
Mariners
Athletics
Angels
Astros
Rangers
The Mariners, A's, and Angels will probably be battling for the division all season, but I think this may be the Mariners' year. The top three could go in any order, though.
AL Champs: Blue Jays
This is a bit of a bold prediction, but I have to have one somewhere. The Blue Jays have the offensive firepower to contend, with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson in the middle of the order. Like I said, the question will be the pitching, and whether Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris succeed in their rookie seasons.
AL MVP: Angels CF Mike Trout
No explanation needed here.
AL Cy Young: Mariners SP Felix Hernandez
Not much explanation needed here, either, but he'll more than likely win it if the Mariners win the AL West.
AL Rookie of the Year: Blue Jays SP Daniel Norris
This race is much more wide open than the National League race, with young pitchers like Norris, Aaron Sanchez, and the White Sox Carlos Rodon, as well as reclamation project Steven Souza Jr and Cuban import Rusney Castillo. But Norris intrigues me. That's all I've got.
NL East
Nationals
Marlins
Mets
Braves
Phillies
This is basically a two or three team race (regardless of what the early results suggest). The Mets may make a surprise run. I originally had the Marlins winning the division, but after their first two games, I'm not confident enough in them to pick them to beat the stacked Nationals.
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Cubs
Brewers
Being a Reds fan, I truly believe in the Reds this year. However, the Cardinals are the class of the division, and they are just as good this year as any year. The Reds and Pirates (and possibly the Cubs) will battle for the Wild Card.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks
The Dodgers are an obvious favorite in this division, and I don't think the bottom three teams will be close late in the season. The interesting team here is the Padres. I could see them, with their offensive talent, winning the division. I could also see them, with their questionable defense, missing the playoffs. I have them barely missing the playoffs here, but I could see them in the postseason.
NL Champs: Dodgers
I can't be too bold, so I have the mighty Dodgers winning the National League. They have the best pitcher in Major League Baseball and many great hitters/all-around players, including Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jimmy Rollins. They will have competition from the Cardinals (who are always postseason threats) and Nationals (who never seem to meet their lofty expectations).
NL MVP: Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton
I wanted to pick Andrew McCutchen, but he probably won't win unless the Pirates make the playoffs, and I don't have them in (because of my "homer" pick, the Reds). So I chose the mighty Giancarlo Stanton of the surprise Miami Marlins. He will more than likely hit the most home runs, as his scary hit by pitch late last year doesn't seem to have affected him.
NL Cy Young: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw
No explanation needed here.
NL Rookie of the Year: Cubs 3B Kris Bryant
Bryant looks ready to bash in the big leagues (as soon as the Cubs call him up in mid-April), and the only other strong candidates I can think of is L.A.'s Joc Pederson and maybe Arizona's Yasmany Tomas. I don't think Bryant will put up MVP-type numbers (temper your expectations a bit), but I do think he will put up Rookie of the Year-type numbers.
World Series Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are too good not to make it to the World Series sometime soon (although the same could be said about the Nationals), and they may this year. I am not at all confident in my picks, but oh well. L.A. is good.
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