Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Sun Will Come Up Tomorrow For The NFL

Before I begin my Week 2 preview, I'd like to take a moment to remember the events of September 11, 2001, 13 years ago this past Thursday. Not to remember all the fire and tragedies, but to remember the heroes and touching stories. As I tweeted on Thursday (@GCTosu), not what someone says, but what someone does, will make him or her be remembered.
As for the NFL, it's been a rough week. Video came out of Ravens running back Ray Rice punching his then-fiancee (they're now married) in an elevator earlier this year, leading to his release and indefinite suspension. Rice had initially been suspended for the first two games after video showed him dragging her out of the elevator. Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL caught a lot of grief for the lax suspension, so they passed new domestic abuse policies. Now there are reports that Goodell saw the video back in April and lied about not seeing it. This is like the NFL version of Watergate.
Then, when it looks like things couldn't get worse, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson was issued an arrest warrant Friday for causing injury to a child after he disciplined his son with a tree branch. He turned himself in, but will not play against New England this week.
There are many things wrong with Goodell and the NFL, whether it be allowing players to play after getting arrested, being inconsistent with punishments, and not getting priorities straight (smoking pot is worse than abusing someone?). However, all is not bleak in the NFL. There are people within the league who are good-hearted and truthful. For example, Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle Devon Still, who's 4-year-old daughter has Stage 4 pediatric cancer, was cut, but then signed to the Bengals practice squad. after Week 1, the Bengals had a open roster spot on their active 53-man roster, so they added Still to the active roster. This feel-good story only gets better. Profit made from the sale of Still jerseys go to help research pediatric cancer and raise awareness. Sales skyrocketed after this was announced. Then, on Wednesday, it was reported that the New Orleans Saints bought 100 jerseys to help the cause. So remember, whatever is going on in the commissioner's office or some places around the NFL, there are still good things going on and many kind, hard-working players and personnel.

New Orleans Saints (0-1) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Browns RB Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell vs. Saints Defense
Browns starting running back Ben Tate will be out 2-4 weeks with a sprained knee, so rookies Terrance West, who ran for 100 yards last week after Tate went out, and Isaiah Crowell, who added two touchdowns, will be tasked with the running back duties. They'll be going against a Saints defense that looked more like the porous defense of 2012 than the much-improved defense of 2013, giving up 37 points to the Falcons last week.
Bold Prediction: Terrance West will run for at least 120 yards.
West ran for 100 yards last week, so this is definitely within reach. Plus, the Saints defense is not very strong, and West will most likely get more carries this week than he did last week.
Fantasy Sleeper: Browns RB Terrance West
This is a new section where I choose a player who could be a good play in fantasy football on a particular week, but who may be a bit under the radar (so not Calvin Johnson or Peyton Manning). As I've been saying, West will take advantage of being the starter in the wake of Tate's injury, and he should thrive, especially this week against a weak defense.
Pick: Saints 34, Browns 30
The Browns showed they can stay with good teams by coming back and almost beating Pittsburgh last week, but the Saints are better than the Steelers and looking for their first win. If the Browns defense plays like they did last week against the Saints, they won't be able to keep up.

Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Buffalo Bills (1-0)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Bills Offensive Line vs. Dolphins Defensive Line
Last week against Tom Brady and the Patriots, the Dolphins had four sacks, including two sacks and a forced fumble by defensive end Cameron Wake. Last week in a win over the Bears, the Bills offensive line only allowed one sack.
Bold Prediction: Neither quarterback will throw for over 170 yards.
Last week both of these teams won, yet Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for only 178 yards, and Bills quarterback E.J. Manuel only threw for 173 yards. Both of these teams rely heavily on the defense and running game.
Fantasy Sleeper: Dolphins Defense
The Miami defense forced two turnovers, had two sacks, and gave up only 249 passing yards to Tom Brady and the Patriots, and E.J. Manuel and the Bills aren't Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Bills 24
This will be a close ground-and-pound game between two decent teams, but the Dolphins quarterback and defense may be the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) @ Washington Redskins (0-1)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Jaguars Defense vs. Redskins Defense
This is really about which defense is less bad this week. Jacksonville gave up 420 yards and 34 points to Philadelphia last week, and Washington gave up 321 yards and 17 points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Texans.
Bold Prediction: Chad Henne will throw for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Henne threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Eagles, and the Redskins defense is worse than the Eagles defense.
Fantasy Sleeper: Jaguars WR Allen Hurns
Hurns, an undrafted rookie from Miami, went off in the first half of last week's game, but was quiet in the second half, finishing withfour receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Cecil Shorts III might be out again with a hamstring injury, and rookie Marqise Lee might be out with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. So look for Hurns to have another big game as the Jaguars' best option against a Washington defense that isn't the greatest.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Redskins 21
Neither of these teams are very good, but if the Jaguars do what they did against the Eagles in the first half last week, the Redskins don't have enough firepower to comeback like the Eagles did. It may be an ugly game, but I think the Jaguars come out on top.

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-0)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Cowboys QB Tony Romo vs. Titans Defense
Romo had a horrible game last Sunday, even by Tony Romo standards, throwing three interceptions. But he should do better this week, and he still has some playmakers around him. The Titans defense, however, may present problems. They held the Chiefs to 10 points last week and running back Jamaal Charles to just 19 yards on seven carries.
Bold Prediction: Jake Locker throws for at least 300 yards.
The Cowboys defense is awful, and the Titans offense racked up 405 total yards last week, 266 of them coming from Locker. He's got options in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, among others, and again, the Cowboys defense is horrible.
Fantasy Sleeper: Titans Defense
Tony Romo really struggled last week against the 49ers, and while the Titans defense is not quite the 49ers defense, they're still pretty good. The Tennessee defense held Kansas City to 245 total yards and forced three turnovers last week.
Pick: Titans 34, Cowboys 21
The Cowboys do not look good on either side of the ball right now, while the Titans are impressing on both sides. Anything could happen, as the 'Boys have enough talent on the offensive side, but the way things are going, the Titans will take this one.

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Cardinals RB Andre Ellington vs. Giants RB Rashad Jennings
Both teams have good running backs whom they rely heavily on. Ellington is a playmaker who isn't 100% healthy yet. He had 13 carries for 53 yards last Monday. Jennings had 16 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown. They will be the keys.
Bold Prediction: Carson Palmer will throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Palmer led the Cards back in the fourth quarter against the Chargers Monday night, throwing for 304 yards and two touchdowns, and now he faces a Giants defense who got shredded by Matthew Stafford and the Lions. Palmer's got Michael Floyd, who has overtaken Larry Fitzgerald as the number one receiver, among other options against the struggling Giants.
Fantasy Sleeper: Giants TE Larry Donnell
Donnell was the leading receiver for the Giants last Monday night with five catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. He's a good pick-up for those in need of a tight end.
Pick: Cardinals 35, Giants 17
The Cardinals are a more well-rounded team than the Lions, even though the Lions may have more offensive talent. The Giants are bumbling right now, and while I do think it will probably get a little better, it won't this week against the Cards.

New England Patriots (0-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-0)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Vikings RB Matt Asiata (and WR Cordarrelle Patterson) vs. Patriots Defense
The Patriots got torn up by Dolphins running back Knowshon Moreno, who ran for 134 yards in a win over New England last week. Backup Lamar Miller added 59 yards.  Meanwhile, the Vikings have possibly the most exciting player in the NFL (Cordarrelle Patterson), one who ran for 102 yards on three carries last week, and Asiata, who will take over for Adrian Peterson. The key to a Patriots win will be containing those two.
Bold Prediction: Both Asiata and Patterson will gain over 100 all-purpose yards.
Patterson is almost a cinch to achieve this, whether it be returning kicks, rushing, or receiving. It may be a bit tougher for Asiata, but he's a decent player, and the Patriots run defense is weak.
Fantasy Sleeper: RB Matt Asiata
See "Matchup To Watch" and "Bold Prediction".
Pick: Vikings 27, Patriots 23
The Patriots are vulnerable, as shown last week, and they probably won't be as good this year. The Vikings, on the other hand, could be pretty good this year, with Peterson being Peterson, Patterson improving, and Matt Cassel providing solid quarterback play. I think Minnesota will pull out the win at home.

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Falcons Offensive Line vs. Bengals Defensive Line
The Falcons offensive line was already ailing before losing rookie left tackle Jake Matthews last week to an ankle injury. On the other hand, the Bengals d-line had three sacks last week, including two (technically 1.5) big sacks by Wallace Gilberry to win the game.
Bold Prediction: Andy Dalton will outthrow Matt Ryan.
Yes, I understand that Matt Ryan set a Falcons franchise record in the overtime win against the Saints last week by throwing for 488 yards. But Dalton, coming off a contract extension, threw for 301 yards last week against a tougher defense. Dalton may have lost tight end Tyler Eifert (put on IR due to an elbow injury), but he still has Giovanni Bernard, A.J. Green, and second tight end Jermaine Gresham, who I will talk about in 3...2...1...
Fantasy Sleeper: Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham
Gresham is a trendy waiver-wire pick-up in fantasy following Eifert's elbow injury, and for good reason. Gresham was the starting tight end in Cincy before they drafted Eifert out of Notre Dame in 2013, and he'll again be at the top of the depth chart. He has some talent and experience, and he has produced before. This is a passing offense, and Gresham will get some more looks.
Pick: Bengals 33, Falcons 27
The Bengals are a very good team, and they're facing another good team that just beat the Saints in overtime. I think the Bengals are the better team, however, as they have more young talent than the Falcons, plus they're at home this week, and it won't be played in a dome.

Detroit Lions (1-0) @ Carolina Panthers (1-0)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Lions Offense vs. Panthers Defense
The Panthers front, led by Defensive Player of the Year Luke Keuchly (9 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble), forced three turnovers last week in a win over the Buccaneers, while the Lions offense, led by Matthew Stafford (22-32, 346 yards, 2 TD, 1 rushing TD) and Megatron (7 catches, 164 yards, 2 TD), blew out the Giants last week.
Bold Prediction: Kelvin Benjamin will gain at least 50 yards and score at least one touchdown.
Benjamin, the Panthers receiver and 6'5" red zone target out of Florida State, played well last week, going up to get a touchdown to add to 92 yards, all on six receptions. And that was with Derek Anderson at quarterback. This week, Cam Newton will be back ad it will be exciting what Benjamin, who played well with Newton in the preseason, will perform.
Fantasy Sleeper: Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin
See "Bold Prediction".
Pick: Panthers 27, Lions 24
This will be an exciting matchup between two young teams with multiple playmakers. The Panthers, though, have Newton back and a much better defense than Detroit, so I have them pulling it out at home.

Saint Louis Rams (0-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)-4:05, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Buccaneers Offensive Line vs. Rams Defensive Line
The Bucs offensive line showed they're still the weak point of the team last week, giving up three sacks and only rushing for 102 yards. Plus, they're new acquisition, Logan Mankins, is banged up with a knee injury he suffered last week. The Rams defensive line, even without defensive end Chris Long, is dangerous, led by defensive end Robert Quinn, who just received a contract extension Saturday.
Bold Prediction: Austin Davis will throw for at least 200 yards and a touchdown.
This is less my trust in Austin Davis (undrafted rookie quarterback for the Rams who will start for Shan Hill) and more my mistrust in the Buccaneers defense. In fact, They gave up 230 yards and two touchdowns to Derek Anderson last week, so this is achievable.
Fantasy Sleeper: Rams QB Austin Davis
See "Bold Prediction".
Pick: Buccaneers 17, Rams 13
This may be an ugly game, but I think the Tampa Bay offense will perform better than in Week 1. They've got size and talent, and Josh McCown isn't that bad.

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) @ San Diego Chargers (0-1)-4:05, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers and Wide Receivers vs. Seahawks Secondary
Rivers threw for 238 yards and a touchdown last week, but Arizona came back and beat them. Wide receiver Malcolm Floyd had 50 receiving yards and a touchdown. But they're facing the vaunted Seahawks secondary, who bottled up Aaron Rodgers last Thursday in a rout.
Bold Prediction: Phillip Rivers will throw for less than 150 yards.
Like I said, the Seahawks shut down Aaron Rodgers last week, and Phillip Rivers is good, but not quite as good as Aaron Rodgers.
Fantasy Sleeper: Chargers WR Malcolm Floyd
Floyd produced last week with 50 receiving yards and a touchdown, and even against the Seahawks, he could produce a little bit.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Chargers 24
In case you didn't know, the Seahawks are very good. The Chargers are good too, but I'm not sure how long they can hang with Seattle.

Houston Texans (1-0) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1)-4:25, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Raiders QB Derek Carr vs. Texans Defense
Rookie quarterback Derek Carr had a decent debut last week against the Jets, throwing for 151 yards and two touchdowns, although they lost. The Texans defense shut down RGIII and the Redskins, holding them to six points, although they lost first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney to an injury.
Bold Prediction: Ryan Fitzpatrick will throw for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Last time Fitzpatrick played against the Raiders (last year with the Titans), he threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, and now he has receivers Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. He played okay last week against Washington, throwing for 206 yards and a touchdown.
Fantasy Sleeper: Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
See "Bold Prediction".
Pick: Texans 27, Raiders 14
The Texas are pretty good (although their quarterback situation is still murky), and the Raiders have a rookie quarterback (although he's decent), so my guess is the Texans will win this one on the road with the help of stars Arian Foster and J.J. Watt.

New York Jets (1-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1)
Matchup To Watch: Packers RB Eddie Lacy vs. Jets Defensive Line
Lacy, the 2013 Offensive Rookie of the Year, had a rough time on Thursday Night Football against the Seahawks, rushing for 34 yards on 12 carries before exiting with a concussion. However, he moved quickly through concussion protocol, and looks to play this week. He'll be going up against a pretty good Jets front led by Muhammed Wilkerson.
Bold Prediction: Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson will each run for at least 70 yards.
Last week against the Raiders, Ivory had 102 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, while Johnson had 68 yards on 13 carries, so it's pretty obvious that this is a running back-by-committee. The Packers gave up 207 yards to Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks last week.
Fantasy Sleeper: Jets TE Jeff Cumberland
Geno Smith doesn't have many receiving options beyond Eric Decker, and Cumberland was second on the team in receiving last week with four catches for 50 yards. So if you're desperate for a tight end in a deep league, he could be a good pick-up.
Pick: Packers 34, Jets 21
The Jets were able to pull out a victory at home against a rookie quarterback last week, but this week they face Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. Packers get back on track after a rough opening game.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) @ Denver Broncos (1-0)-4:25, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles vs. Broncos RB Montee Ball
Charles is a stud who only got seven carries last week against the Titans (for 19 yards), and Ball is a breakout candidate who got his first start last week against the Colts and rushed for 67 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Both backs will probably produce better this week.
Bold Prediction: Julius Thomas will score at least three touchdowns... again.
Thomas had a huge game last Sunday night, scoring three times on seven receptions for 104 yards. There's no reason he won't be a top target again this week, with Wes Welker still suspended since the new drug policy was not finalized in time for him to be reinstated by Sunday.
Fantasy Sleeper: Chiefs WR Donnie Avery
The Chiefs receiving corps isn't close to that of the Broncos, but they do have to throw sometimes. Last week, Avery was the top receiver with 84 yards on seven receptions. Even though receiver Dwayne Bowe is coming back from a one-game drug suspension this week, Avery will still get targets.
Pick: Broncos 37, Chiefs 17
This one just feels like it'll be a blowout, especially the way these two teams played last week. The Broncos were the usual Broncos in a win over the Colts, while the Chiefs couldn't do much against the Titans.

Chicago Bears (0-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-0)-8:30, NBC
Matchup To Watch: Bears WR Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery (and RB Matt Forte) vs. 49ers Secondary
The San Francisco secondary had a field day last Sunday, intercepting Tony Romo three times and returning a fumble 35 yards for a touchdown. They'll have their hands full this week, however, as they go against Forte, one of the best receiving backs in the league and Chicago's leading receiver last week (8 catches, 87 yards), and the one-two receiving punch of Marshall (8 catches, 71 yards, 1 TD) and Jeffery (5 catches, 71 yards). However, both receivers are questionable to play due to injury.
Bold Prediction: Jay Cutler will throw for at least three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Last week in an overtime loss to Buffalo, Cutler threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions, while San Fran picked off Tony Romo three times, but Cutler isn't Romo (well... not exactly), and he has good targets and a good running back.
Fantasy Sleeper: 49ers RB Carlos Hyde
Yes, I understand Hyde is the backup and will only get so many carries, but last week he still had seven carries for 50 yards and a touchdown. Remember, Frank Gore isn't getting any younger (unless he's like Benjamin Button), and Carlos Hyde is at the least a must-have handcuff for Gore.
Pick: Bears 37, 49ers 28
The Bears aren't as bad as they may have shown last week in a loss to the Bills (who actually are not bad), and the 49ers probably aren't as good as they looked last week against the Cowboys (they won't face Bad Tony Romo every week).

 Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1)-8:30, ESPN
Matchup To Watch: Eagles Offensive Line vs. Colts Defense
The Philadelphia offensive line has been depleted by suspension (right tackle Lane Johnson) and injury (right tackle Allen Barbre, who's out with an ankle injury, and left gaurd Evan Mathis, who's questionable with a knee injury), but they may get a break against a punchless Colts front, especially without pass-rusher Robert Mathis (suspension/torn Achilles).
Bold Prediction: Both LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles will have at least 100 total yards.
Last week we saw how the Eagles will use new toy Darren Sproles, pairing him in the backfield with LeSean McCoy. McCoy had 21 carries for 74 yards and Sproles had 11 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown, and both are dangerous in the passing game.
Fantasy Sleeper: Colts TE Dwayne Allen
Although he splits time with Coby Fleener, he is the lead tight end, and he had four receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown last week. With Andrew Luck at quarterback against a below-average Eagles defense, he's a good play.
Pick: Eagles 34, Colts 31
It may be stupid going against Luck at home after a loss, but the Eagles are exciting, and the Colts are weak on defense and don't have a running game (as long as they keep starting Trent Richardson).

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