Saturday, October 26, 2013

Week 8 NFL Picks

Last week was a little rough for me. I went 6-7, predicting many things wrong, including the Rams upsetting the 49ers, Browns receiver Tori Gurley making an impact (he was waived again this week), and Eli Manning throwing more interceptions. I was right, though, on Texans QB Case Keenum playing solid, and my record isn't as bad as I thought. Let's hope this week is better. My overall record is now 32-24. Now, pick time:
Chiefs (7-0) over Browns (3-4) (Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00, CBS)
Come on down, Jason Campbell! Campbell will be the Cleveland Browns' 20th starting quarterback since 1999. I heard on ESPN the other day that St. Ignatius, a local high school in Cleveland, has had 16 quarterbacks during that span. That's pretty depressing. For his first start since 2011, Campbell gets to face the only remaining unbeaten team and the best defense in the NFL. He gets to do it on the road, too. Along with the league's best defense, the Chiefs have running back Jamaal Charles, who's third in the NFL in rushing yards and second in touchdowns. All that, plus a pretty easy schedule-Kansas City's opponents so far are a combined 15-33-have attributed to the unbeaten record. I think Campbell will be better than Brandon Weeden (which isn't hard to do), but the Chiefs should cruise to 8-0.

Lions (4-3) over Cowboys (4-3) (Dallas at Detroit, 1:00, FOX)
This will be an enticing matchup between two prolific passing teams; both have gun-slinging quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo) and two of the top wide receivers in the NFL (Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant). Both teams also have banged-up running backs who expect to play this week. It looks like DeMarco Murray will make his return for the Cowboys after missing the last game with a sprained knee ligament. Reggie Bush's status is a bit more foggy due to an injury he sustained in practice, but he should also play. This will be a close, high-scoring game. I think it will come down to the wire, and we all know how clutch Tony Romo is. I'm going with Megatron and the Lions at home.

Patriots (5-2) over Dolphins (3-3) (Miami at New England, 1:00, CBS)
Both of these teams are coming off heart-breaking losses in the final seconds. The Dolphins have lost three in a row, thanks in large part to the weak offensive line, which has given up a league-high 26 sacks, and the nonexistent running game, which is 29th in the NFL with 468 rushing yards. The Patriots offense, surprisingly, hasn't fared much better. Tom Brady has uncharacteristically struggled, only throwing one touchdown pass the last three games. Rob Gronkowski returned last week and caught eight balls for 114 yards, starting right where he left off last season. Gronk will be key in getting the New England offense going, especially while their defense is hobbled by injuries. This may be another game won in the final seconds, and I think the Pats give the Fins a fourth straight loss.

Saints (5-1) over Bills (3-4) (Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00, CBS)
Quarterback Thad Lewis has done a fine job taking over for E.J. Manuel, leading the Bills to a nail-biting win over the Dolphins last week. He also has some help in running back Fred Jackson, a workhorse back who is tied for fifth in the NFL in touchdowns and has shaken off injuries and produced in C.J. Spiller's injury-induced absence, as well as a defense led by defensive end Mario Williams, who is second in the NFL in sacks. Drew Brees and the Saints, however, are a dangerous team, even after suffering their first loss in heart-breaking fashion to the Patriots two weeks ago before their bye week last week. Brees is fifth in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, and hopes to have his tight end Jimmy Graham, who is questionable with an ankle injury. The Saints, Graham or no Graham, should comfortably beat the Bills.

Eagles (3-4) over Giants (1-6) (New York at Philadelphia, 1:00, FOX)
I still believe in the Eagles and their fast-paced offense, even though they let me down last week with a 17-3 loss to the Cowboys. I also still believe the Giants are an awful team, despite them getting their first win of the season last Monday against the Vikings. Why do I still believe these things? For the Eagles, it's because Michael Vick is back this week, and LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are studs and now both on my fantasy team (plus both of their names end with "Sean"). For the Giants, it's because they beat the 1-5 Vikings, led by Josh Freeman, who couldn't hit Yao Ming on stilts Monday night, And because Peyton Hillis is starting at running back. I have the Eagles in a rout.

49ers (5-2) over Jaguars (0-7) (San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00, FOX)
Good news and bad news for the Jaguars. Good news: They might not be the worst team in the NFL, as the scuffling Buccaneers are also 0-7. Bad news: They are still very bad, probably won't win any games, and are, in my opinion, at least talent-wise, still the worst team in the NFL. I will say that they have two pretty good receivers in Cecil Shorts III and Justin Blackmon, but receivers need decent quarterbacks to throw to them. The 49ers, on the other hand, are the 49ers, with their devastating defense, workhorse back Frank Gore, and the talented Colin Kaepernick. 49ers in a drubbing.

Bengals (5-2) over Jets (4-3) (New York at Cincinnati, 4:05, CBS)
Both of these teams won on game-winning field goals last week, and both teams are building up heads of steam. Andy Dalton and the Bengals have won three in a row and have a comfortable lead atop the AFC North, while Geno Smith and the Jets beat the division-leading Patriots last week. the Bengals, though, have more weapons in the passing game, with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, and Gio Bernard, among others. I'm going with Cincy in what could be another close one.

Raiders (2-4) over Steelers (2-4) (Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:05, CBS)
I haven't been thoroughly impressed with either of these teams thus far, although maybe that's just because I haven't really seen either of these teams. The Steelers are riding a two game win streak after starting 0-4, helped by an improving defense and rookie running back Le'Veon Bell, who ran for 93 yards last week. The Raiders are coming off a bye week after a rough loss against Kansas City, and the scrambling Terrelle Pryor and injury-prone but talented Darren McFadden will look to get back on track. I don't exactly know why, but I'm going against the Steelers again. I have Oakland in an ugly one.

Falcons (2-4) over Cardinals (3-4) (Atlanta at Arizona, 4:25, FOX)
Both of these bird-themed teams have had their struggles this year. I feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald, as he's having yet another year of limited production due to subpar quarterback play. They also don't have a rushing game yet again, as they're tied for 26th in yards per carry. Their defense, led by athletic DBs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, is what's keeping them afloat. The Falcons haven't had much of a rushing attack, either, but Steven Jackson, who's been out since week two, is slated to start. However, they still won't have Roddy White, so Harry Douglas will need another big game after putting up 149 receiving yards last week. I wouldn't bet against it, as I think the Falcons will fly by the Cards.

Broncos (6-1) over Redskins (2-4) (Washington at Denver, 4:25, FOX)
Another must-see game, just like Dallas-Detroit. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are trying to rebound after a loss to the Colts in Peyton's return to Indy, and the Denver, after giving up 39 points in Indy, might have found some weaknesses. The Redskins, meanwhile, are coming off another big win and another impressive RGIII performance. Griffin appears to be getting back to pre-injury form, throwing for 298 yards and two touchdowns, as well as 84 yards on the ground, in last week's 45-41 win vs. the Bears. At the end of the day, I think this will be a shootout won by Dever's prolific offense at Mile High.

Packers (4-2) over Vikings (1-5) (Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30, NBC)
It's been ugly for the Vikings, who are 1-5 after falling to the winless Giants Monday night. Christian Ponder will get the start Sunday night because Josh Freeman has a concussion, and I'm not sure Ponder can do much worse than Freeman did Monday night. If Minnisota wants to have a sniff of a chance at winning, they need to get Adrian Peterson going again. AP only had 28 yards last week on 13 carries. The Packers have been hobbled by injuries to receivers Randall Cobb and James Jones, but Jarrett Boykin has stepped in and produced, posting 103 receiving yards last week. I think the Pack will be fine as long as Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball, no matter who he's throwing to. Plus, they finally have a running game with rookie running back Eddie Lacy. I say Green Bay in a rout.

Seahawks (6-1) over Rams (3-4) (Seattle at St. Louis, 8:30 Mon. ESPN)
I probably only need one sentence to explain this pick. Here it is: The Rams called Brett Favre last week. That's how desperate they are for a quarterback to replace the injured Sam Bradford, who's out for the season. The Seahawks aren't desperate for anyone, and in fact are waiting another week to bring back wide receiver Percy Harvin, who practiced this week for the first time this season, from the IR. It looks like Kellen Clemens will get the start for St. Louis this week, so Seattle will probably kill the Rams.


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