Week 7 NFL Picks

I apologize for not doing a week 6 analysis last week. Now I've missed a week of picks and a week of analysis. I've been pretty busy and I've been distracted by Pokèmon. But I promise I won't miss another post. I went 8-6 in my picks last week, bringing my overall record to 26-17. Here are this week's picks:

Falcons (1-4) over Buccaneers (0-5) (Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00, FOX)

Both of these teams have struggled mightily so far and had to deal with key injuries. For the Bucs, Vincent Jackson has turned it on, finishing with nine catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns. Fellow receiver Mike Williams is questionable this week after sitting out last week with a sore hamstring. Tampa also has guard Carl Nicks and kicker Lawrence Tynes out with MRSA. As for the Falcons, they lost receiver Julio Jones for the season, and running back Steven Jackson is still out. I think Matt Ryan and the Falcons will win an ugly one.

Lions (4-2) over Bengals (4-2) (Cincinnati at Detroit, 1:00, CBS)

Again, like last week's Lions-Browns game, I think a key factor is Calvin Jonhson's health. Megatron will probably play more this week, and the emergence of tight end Joseph Fauria last week could help Johnson. The Bengals barely escaped in overtime last week, allowing the Bills to come back and almost beat them. I don't think they escape this week in Detroit.

Bills (2-4) over Dolphins (3-2) (Buffalo at Miami, 1:00, CBS)

After starting 3-0, the Dolphins have struggled, especially the offensive line and running game. The Bills, led by quarterback Thad Lewis, whom they signed off the practice squad last week after E.J. Manuel got injured, almost knocked off the Bengals last week. Lewis looked impressive, as did their pass rush, which is third in the NFL in sacks. That pass rush might give Miami's struggling o-line fits. I think it will, and I believe Lewis gets his first career win.

Patriots (5-1) over Jets (3-3) (New England at New York, 1:00, CBS)

Guess who's back?! That's right, Rob Gronkowski, the best tight end in the NFL (as of last time he played), has been medically cleared and although he is questionable, will probably play. The return of Gronk will greatly benefit Tom Brady and the Patriots thin receiving corps. He will probably be heavily targeted, as receiver Danny Amendola is out (again) with a concussion. The defense is also banged up, with linebacker Jerod Mayo out for the season and corner Aqib Talib out with a hip injury. Alas, I think the return of Gronk powers the Pats over the Jets.

Eagles (3-3) over Cowboys (3-3) (Dallas at Philadelphia, 1:00, FOX)

This will be a tightly-contested battle for first place in the NFC East. The Cowboys will be without running back DeMarco Murray (MCL sprain) and, for the first time in his career, DeMarcus Ware (quad). The Eagles will again be without starting quarterback Michael Vick (hamstring), but backup Nick Foles played very well last week, winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week after lighting up Tampa for 296 yards and four total touchdowns. These are two prolific offenses (usually) and somewhat porous defenses, and I think the Eagles will win a barn-burner in Philly.

Bears (4-2) over Redskins (1-4) (Chicago at Washington, 1:00, FOX)

The Bears offense has looked pretty good, while the Redskins defense has looked pretty bad. The Bears have big weapons in receivers Alshon Jeffery, who broke a Bears receiving record a couple of weeks ago (218 yards), and Brandon Marshall, who had nine catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in last week's win vs. the Giants, as well as running back Matt Forte. RGIII will get to his pre-injury form eventually, but this week the Bears will light up the bad Washington defense.

Panthers (2-3) over Rams (3-3) (St. Louis at Carolina, 1:00, FOX)

Both of these teams struggle to begin the season, but have come on strong lately. The same can be said about the quarterbacks. Sam Bradford has led the Rams to two straight wins after struggling during a three-game losing streak. During the winning streak, he is 31-50 for 339 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Cam Newton has played more like the number one pick in te 2011 draft recently, going 20-26 for 242 yards passing and 30 yards rushing with three passing touchdowns and one on the ground last week in a rout if Minnesota. This could go either way, but I think the talented Newton leads Carolina to a win at home.

Chargers (3-3) over Jaguars (0-6) (San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00, CBS)

The Jaguars may be the worst team in the NFL at 0-6, and may not win a game all season, but they played inspired football last week against the undefeated Broncos, coming within as little as two points before the Broncos pulled away, and receiver Justin Blackmon is a stud, finishing with 14 catches for 190 yards in the loss. That being said, the Chargers are coming off a big Monday night win over the Colts, holding them to only six points. Phillip Rivers has looked like the Phillip Rivers of old, which has been aided by the emergence of rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen (out of California),, who has had over 100 yards receiving in two straight games. The rising Chargers should have no trouble with the lowly Jaguars.

Titans (3-3) over 49ers (4-2) (San Francisco at Tennessee, 4:05, FOX)

This is my upset pick of the week. I am not at all sure, or even fully confident, on this one, as the Niners have won three straight and the Titans have lost two in a row. But it's worth noting that San Francisco's three wins were against St. Louis, Houston, and Arizona, three teams that are a combined 8-11, and Tennessee's two losses were vs. Kansas City and Seattle, two teams that are a combined 12-1, and the Titans had Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. This week Jake Locker, who guided the Titans to a 3-1 start with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, returns in place of Fitzpatrick, who was 0-2 with one touchdown and three interceptions. For an upset to materialize, Chris Johnson needs to step it up as well, rushing for just 71 total yards the last three games. The Niners are a very good team, and with Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore playing well, will probably win this game, but I'm going to go for the upset.

Packers (3-3) over Browns (3-3) (Cleveland at Green Bay, 4:25, CBS) 

I want to think the Browns will win, as I always do, and they might, but Brandon Weeden is not a good quarterback. Even with injuries to receivers Randall Cobb and James Jones, the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, a very good quarterback. Plus, in a game that might come down to the running game, the Packers have a better running back in rookie Eddie Lacy (out of Alabama), as opposed to the Browns, who only have two active running backs in Willis McGahee and Fozzy Whitaker (three, if you count fullback Chris Ogbannaya). Cleveland's defense will keep them in this game, and Weeden has weapons in Josh Gordon and Jordon Cameron (plus Tori Gurley, who, although he was just signed off the practice squad and has only one catch this year, Is a 6'4", 230 pound receiver), but I can't see Weeden rallying the Browns to a win in a close game, so I'll go Packers. I hope I'm wrong.

Chiefs (6-0) over Texans (2-4) (Houston at Kansas City, 4:25, CBS)

I believe in Case Keenum. I believe in  Case Keenum so much that I picked him up in my fantasy league. Who is Case Keenum, you ask? He is the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans. He was third-string before Matt Schaub was injured last week, and he jumped backup T.J. Yates and will make his first career start this weekend. He's a second year player out of Houston, where he broke NCAA passing records in a prolific offense. Yes, the competition was weak, which is probably why he was an undrafted free agent, but it's hard to argue with the college stats. I think Case Keenum can be a good NFL quarterback. But this week, Houston plays the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs, and Keenum will be making his first career start vs. the best defense in the league at Arrowhead Stadium, a very hostile environment. I don't think Keenum will perform that poorly, but I do think the Chiefs will win again.

Ravens (3-3) over Steelers (1-4) (Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 4:25, CBS)

I don't like either of these teams, mostly because I'm a Browns fan, but also because they've been ugly to watch so far this season. The Steelers finally got their first win of the season last week, when they beat the Jets 19-6. Their defense helped them get their first win, but their offense is still a work in progress. As is the Ravens' offense, as they only rushed for 47 yards last week in a 19-17 loss to Green Bay, and are the NFL's second worst rushing team, ahead of only the Jaguars. I don't think either of these teams are very good, but I think the Ravens will get back on track this weekend.

Broncos (6-0) over Colts (4-2) (Denver at Indianapolis, 8:30, NBC)

These are two very good teams, and this should be an exciting game to watch. The Broncos got a little scare from the winless Jaguars, but I think that might have been partly because they were uninterested. They won't be uninterested this week, as it's a primetime matchup and Peyton Manning's return to Indy. The Colts didn't look good in a Monday night loss vs. the Chargers, but they tend to play better against the elite teams in the league (see 49ers, Seahawks). I think this will be a close one, but I think Peyton Manning plays, well, like Peyton Manning in his return, and keeps the Broncos undefeated.

Vikings (1-4) over Giants (0-6) (Minnesota at New York, 8:30 Mon, ESPN)

These are two not very good teams. The Giants are awful so far this season, with Eli seeming to throw at least a few interceptions a game, and the defense not being able to stop anybody. For the Vikings, they've shuffled quarterbacks, and will start a new one this week. Josh Freeman, who was released by the Bucanneers earlier this season after being benched, will get the start. I think he'll play better than he did to start the season, because he has a change of scenery and a new coach. He also has Adrian Peterson, who is still Adrian Peterson. If Eli cuts down on the turnovers, I think the Giants can win, but I just don't see that happening anytime soon.