It's that time of year again: football season. High school football has already started, college football ramps up this week, and the NFL season is less than two weeks away. That also means it's Madden Season. This year's installment came out August 25th, and I bought it August 27th. I haven't played it a ton thus far, but I have played it enough to at least share some impressions of it.
Gameplay
The big calling card for Madden 16 is the new gameplay controls in the passing game. This year, you have a lot of different options as to how you want to throw a pass. You can throw a bullet pass, a touch pass, a lob pass, a low pass, or a high pass. This gives couch quarterbacks a lot more control. They can throw a low pass on hitches and curls to try and prevent interceptions, they can put some touch on a pass over the middle just over the linebackers' heads, and they can heave a jump ball and hope their star receiver comes down with it. This brings us to the other part: catching the ball. This year there are several new catching animations, and different new ways to catch passes. You have the option of making a possession catch (better chance of holding on to the ball), RAC, or Run After Catch (better chance of gaining yards after the catch), or aggressive catch (for jump balls). There are also new catching mechanics on the defensive side of the ball. Now you can switch to the closest defender and try to defend a pass or pick it by either choosing to play the ball or play the receiver. I haven't quite gotten the hang of all of the new passing and receiving controls (especially pass defense, which I often struggle at), but I have used them to my advantage a few times. In previous versions of Madden, I would rarely ever be able to complete deep passes, and they would often result in interceptions. I've already found more success this year. At least a few times I have thrown up a deep jump ball and a receiver has come down with it, even in double coverage. Don't worry, it doesn't make every single jump ball end in a spectacular catch. A lot of times, my receiver has caught the ball in the air but lost control of it coming down. The Madden team has also focused on making players more realistic in the game. They want you to be able to clearly notice the difference between a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers and one like Blaine Gabbert. I've used a few quarterbacks so far, and I can tell you there was a noticeable difference between someone like Brock Osweiler or Johnny Manziel and a slightly better and more experienced quarterback like Colin Kaepernick. I've missed some wide open throws with worse quarterbacks. I think the same goes for other positions, but the position I've really noticed it in so far is quarterback (I've only played a few games, so I haven't been able to notice any profound differences). Overall (so far), gameplay has really been improved this year and makes for a more enjoyable experience.
Presentation
Madden is still behind titles such as NBA 2K in presentation and graphics, but they have still made significant improvements. The graphics are better, especially in the stands and on the sideline. Virtual coaches actually resemble their real-life counterparts this year, and the crowd seems into it more. The bland commentary doesn't seem to be changed, but there are some presentation improvements, including more player celebrations, which adds more excitement to the gameplay. I'd also like to see big moments feel even more exciting and pressure-packed, but it's still a more enjoyable atmosphere. Another qualm I might have, and one I've read about in other reviews, is the inability/difficulty of skipping cutscenes, as well as the opening scenario between the Steelers (whom you control) and Cardinals in Super Bowl 50 (I don't even like the Steelers). This slows down the game a bit, but that's just nitpicking. Off of the field, the menus are mostly still in "blocks", but they are much better organized and more visually appealing. EA Trax also makes a welcome return, providing decent music instead of the same generic instrumental music over and over. Presentation in Madden still lags behind other sports games, and there are always some glitches and bugs, but that doesn't mean it isn't still a visually appealing game that provides an exciting atmosphere.
Draft Champions
Unfortunately, I've only been able to try this much-heralded new mode once, because I have to buy a subscription to Playstation Plus to play it, which I find stupid. However, the one time I played it (I got a two-day free trial), it felt like a strong new addition. In this mode, you pick between three coaches and get a base team of average players, and then you go through a 15-round draft. Each round you are given the choice between three different players, and the quality of players can vary round-per-round. For example, I passed on a quarterback in an early round for a better player at another position, thinking I could get a quarterback later. I wasn't able to, and I had to start Matt Schaub. Those are the kinds of decisions you must make in Draft Champions. Another is whether to pick the best player available or pick a player who fits your coach's philosophy. In the 15th round, you get to choose between three legends. Then you play three games with your team (either head-to-head or vs. CPU) and hope to win the Draft Champions championship. If you lose, you're done. It's a very quick and easy mode. I like the whole fantasy draft thing, but I'd like it if they expanded on the mode or combined it with Madden Ultimate Team, which they may do in the future. It's a good start, though, and it is an enjoyable mode (other than the fact that they make me have to pay to play) filled with strategy and risk-taking.
Madden Ultimate Team
I've never really gotten into Madden Ultimate Team (MUT), but for those who are really into it, I think it's more or less the same, with some minor improvements.
Franchise
Now time for my favorite part of sports video games, Franchise Mode. I haven't gotten really in-depth in Franchise Mode yet, because I'm waiting on Madden to put out a patch to fix all of the bugs in the mode, but I have started one. I usually like to fantasy draft to start it out, and I hope they continue to improve the fantasy draft interface. I do like the fact that you no longer have to scroll all the way over to see all of a player's attributes. You can now see them all on the player card. There is also a much more user-friendly visual depth chart so you can easily make personnel changes. I haven't gotten to scouting and the draft, but improvements have been made on that front as well, including combine stats, which I like. There are also new player goals and notifications during games about where players are with those goals. As it has been, it allows you to start as an owner, a coach, or a player, and still has features like Owner Mode, relocation, interviews, etc.
Overview
I didn't think that highly of the last couple of Maddens, but, although it still has it's drawbacks, Madden 16 is a major improvement and worthy of buying, as it's more than just a roster update. Thanks to improved passing mechanics and realism, as well as the enjoyable new little mode Draft Champions, it's a big step in the right direction.
Grade: 8/10
Monday, August 31, 2015
Monday, August 3, 2015
G-Rex's 2015 Fantasy Football Preview
Summer is winding down, school is starting up again, and football season is just around the corner, which also means fantasy football season is just around the corner. I love fantasy football. It's a great way to have fun and compete with friends, and it gives you a rooting interest in more than just the game your favorite team is playing in. Whether you play fantasy football for money, or for bragging rights; whether you play in a 10-team standard league, or a 20-team dynasty league; whether you just go into your league's draft and wing it, or you pore over magazines and do mock drafts, hopefully this fantasy football preview will help you in your draft. However, I do not guarantee this will lead you to a championship (especially if you're in a league with me). Regardless, I hope you find this guide helpful and use it to draft a formidable fantasy squad. And good luck this season!
Top Pick is my number one rated player at that position heading into the season. "Safe" Picks are reliable and durable fantasy players who can consistently put up solid fantasy numbers. Boom/Bust are players who are the opposite of the safe picks, inconsistent fantasy performers who could break out one week and put up a dud the next week. Sleepers are players I believe could have breakout seasons and could provide value in the draft. Deep Sleepers/Keepers are players I believe could provide value in deeper leagues (or even normal leagues) and are good players to target in keeper/dynasty leagues. Dual-Threats are players who provide extra value in fantasy because of their involvement in the running game and passing game. Injury Risks are talented players who are injury prone, and are high-risk, high-reward picks.
Stats and information via ESPN.com
QB
Top Pick: Aaron Rodgers (2014 Stats: 341-520, 4381 yards, 38 TD, 5 INT)
Rodgers was the best quarterback in fantasy last year, and there is no reason he won't be again this year. Last year's MVP has elite quarterback skills and an array of weapons in Green Bay, and he can easily tear up any defense. He is the clear number one quarterback in fantasy this year.
"Safe" Picks: Drew Brees (456-659, 4952 yards, 33 TD, 17 INT)
& Matt Ryan (415-628, 4695 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT)
Brees has thrown for over 4,000 yards the past nine years (over 5,000 yards four of those years) and over 30 touchdowns the past seven years. I know he lost his top target (Jimmy Graham) and the Saints might not throw as much as in past years, but he'll still throw a lot. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards the past four years, and still has Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus a new coach and offensive coordinator (Kyle Shanahan, who loves to throw the ball downfield).
Boom/Bust: Matthew Stafford (363-602, 4257 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT)
& Jameis Winston (Rookie)
There is no question Matthew Stafford has the arm talent (he has immense arm strength and the ability to throw from many different arm slots) and talented targets (Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate), but he's plagued by inconsistency and poor decision-making on many throws. Winston is said to be pro-ready, and he has numerous red-zone threats (The tall trio of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins), but he's just a rookie, the interception number last year (18) concerns me, and Tampa's offense was awful last season.
Sleepers: Ryan Tannehill (392-590, 4045 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT)
& Derek Carr (348-599, 3270 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT)
Tannehill showed great improvement last season, and should improve even more this year. He is athletic and can get fantasy owners some extra points on the ground, and he now has a strong group of pass-catchers (Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Jordan Cameron). Carr put up decent stats as a rookie in a weak offense, and now he has a legitimate number one receiver in Amari Cooper.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Marcus Mariota (Rookie)
& Blake Bortles (280-475, 2908 yards, 11 TD, 17 INT)
I believed Mariota was the best quarterback in this year's draft, and I still believe that. However, Tennessee isn't the greatest place to succeed. He is, though, an athletic and intelligent dual-threat quarterback (I think of him as a bigger Russell Wilson), and he is a definite target in keeper/dynasty leagues. Bortles is also an athletic QB with talent (though not as much as Mariota), but he struggled with accuracy as a rookie, and, like Mariota, plays with a less-than-ideal supporting cast. If he can make a leap in his second year, he could provide some value.
Dual-Threats: Cam Newton (262-448, 3127 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT; 103 rushes, 539 yards, 5 TD)
& Colin Kaepernick (289-478, 3369 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT; 104 rushes, 639 yards, 1 TD)
Cam is always a good starting quarterback option in fantasy based solely on his legs. He wasn't quite as good last season (due to injuries and not running as much), but was still solid, and if he can improve his passing, he could become an elite fantasy option. Kaepernick got a lot of flak for San Francisco's struggles last year, but he actually put up decent numbers, and he has undeniable talent. With a new coach and the addition of Torrey Smith, he could be a big bounce-back candidate this season.
Injury Risks: Sam Bradford (Did Not Play)
& Carson Palmer (141-224, 1626 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT)
Sam Bradford has the arm and pocket presence to be a good quarterback, but he can't stay healthy. He tore his ACL (again) last year. Now with the up-tempo Eagles, if he can stay healthy (a huge if), he could be a top-10 fantasy QB. Palmer quietly did a good job of stabilizing the Cardinal offense (when healthy) before tearing his ACL (those darn Anterior Collateral Ligaments!) in Week 10. If healthy, he'll be a solid fantasy starter.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Andrew Luck, Colts
3. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
4. Peyton Manning, Broncos
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
6. Drew Brees, Saints
7. Tony Romo, Cowboys
8. Cam Newton, Panthers
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Rodgers is the current king of fantasy quarterbacks, while Luck is probably the future king of fantasy quarterbacks. Wilson is a dual-threat playing for an elite team that just got an elite tight end. He could be even better this season. While Manning, Big Ben, and Brees aren't getting any younger, they'll continue to be among the best at the position. Newton running ability will always make him a good fantasy quarterback, and when he becomes a better passer, he could potentially vault into the top five. Ryan is consistent, has talented receivers, and will throw a lot, and Tannehill is a breakout candidate if he continues to improve, especially with Miami's offensive additions.
RB
Top Pick: Jamaal Charles (2014 Stats: 206 carries, 1033 yards, 5 yards per carry, 9 TD)
Running back is the hardest position to determine a number one at. You could pick Charles, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray... I'm not even sure about my pick for the top back. I honestly like Peterson and Foster more, but they have more question marks than Charles. Bell would probably be the pick if he wasn't suspended two games, and Lacy (or any of the other backs I named) is ranked number one by others, which I can't argue with. Ok, back to Charles: he won't get the most carries in the league, but he's a great runner who averaged 5 yards-per-carry last season and plays for an offense that will continue to run the ball a lot. He also called himself the Lebron James of football, so now I have to rank him number one.
"Safe" Picks: Marshawn Lynch (280 carries, 1306 yards, 4.7 YPC, 13 TD)
& LeSean McCoy (314 carries, 1319 yards, 4.2 YPC, 5 TD)
"Safe" could also be used to define many running backs in fantasy, including Lacy, Bell, Forte, and Murray, but I went with Lynch and McCoy. Marshawn, despite pundits warning of his decline, keeps on chugging at 29 years old. He's run for over 2,400 yards (and double-digit touchdowns) the last four seasons, and plays in a talented offense that likes to run the ball. Shady didn't perform as well last year as he did in his marvelous 2013 campaign, but he still ran for over 1,300 yards. Now he's a Bill, which could be good (doesn't have to share carries with Darren Sproles, will run the ball a lot due to shaky quarterback play) or bad (has to share carries with Fred Jackson, is in a weaker offense). I think he'll do well, as he's still the most elusive back in the league.
Boom/Bust: Adrian Peterson (Did Not Play)
& C.J. Anderson (179 carries, 849 yards, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD)
Look who's back! The guy who was the clear number one back in fantasy last year, Adrian Peterson. He still could be the best back in the league, but who knows? He only played in one game last year, so people aren't sure what to expect. I expect more or less the same guy. He'll go back to being a top-five (and possibly top-one) fantasy running back. Anderson burst out from a crowded Denver backfield late last season, but Montee Ball and Ronnie Hilllman are still there, and we'll see if he can sustain his stellar play.
Sleepers: Carlos Hyde (83 rushes, 333 yards, 4 YPC, 4 TD)
& Melvin Gordon (Rookie)
I've been on the Carlos Hyde bandwagon for awhile (it helps that he went to The Ohio State University). He has a great blend of size and speed, but was stuck behind Frank Gore last season. Now Gore is in Indy, so Hyde will be the lead back in San Fran, and the only real threat to him for touches is injury-prone Reggie Bush. Gordon is expected by to be the first rookie back selected in many fantasy drafts this year, and for good reason. The 2014 Heisman finalist will be the Chargers' Day 1 starter (sorry Donald Brown) and has big-play ability.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Letavius Murray (82 carries, 424 yards, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD)
& Todd Gurley (Rookie)
Murray looked promising after taking over late last season, and he has the skills to succeed. The only big questions are his injury history and the talent around/in front of him. Gurley may be the best running back in this year's rookie class, but with him coming off ACL surgery and the presence of Tre Mason, he might not get the majority of the carries right away. But make sure to stash him for when he does.
Dual-Threats: Matt Forte (266 carries, 1038 yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD; 102 rec, 808 yards, 4 TD)
& Le'Veon Bell (290 carries, 1361 yards, 4.6 YPC, 8 TD; 83 rec, 854 yards, 3 TD)
Bell would probably be the top fantasy running back if he weren't suspended for the first two games of the season due to a DUI and marijuana possession. Even with the suspension, he's a first round pick thanks to his production on the ground and through the air. He was the number two fantasy running back last year, and will probably be at least top five this year. Forte has been among the best dual-threats out of the backfield for years, including last year, when he set the running back record for catches in a season (102). He could regress this year due to age (30) and a new coach, but he will still be a top-10 fantasy running back.
Injury Risks: Arian Foster (260 carries, 1246 yards, 4.8 YPC, 8 TD)
& Jonathan Stewart (175 rushes, 809 yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD)
Foster can look like the best running back in the league when healthy; the problem is staying on the field. He's played all 16 games twice in his six-year career. Last year he played 13 games, and, like he usually does, produced when healthy. Stewart is no longer handcuffed to DeAngelo Williams, and was very impressive after taking over late last season. He is injury-prone, though, so we'll see if he can stay healthy now that he has a full-time gig. If so, he's a good sleeper candidate.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. Eddie Lacy, Packers
3. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
5. Arian Foster, Texans
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
7. Matt Forte, Bears
8. DeMarco Muray, Eagles
9. LeSean McCoy, Bills
10. C.J. Anderson, Broncos
This is the toughest position to rank. You could conceivably rank the top 10 in just about any order; they're all very close. Charles is a highly-skilled back who was number one in fantasy two years ago, and could be again this year. Lacy and Bell are nearly impossible to take down, and could just as easily claim the top spot. I personally like Peterson and Foster (as long as Foster stays healthy and Peterson picks up where he left off). Lynch has yet to wear down due to age and workload, so there's no reason to believe he will this year. Forte provides value thanks to his receiving role. McCoy and Murray, last season's best running back, have changed teams, so it remains to be seen how that works out, but they are both talented. Anderson gets to play with Peyton Manning in Denver's elite offense, and if he can hold off Ball and Hillman, he can be a top-10 (or top-five) back. Running back may be the most important position in fantasy, and there are many to choose from (but they'll be gone quickly).
WR
Top Pick: Antonio Brown (2014 Stats: 129 rec, 1698 yards, 13.2 yards per catch, 13 TD)
Brown was a beast last season, ruling the wide receiver position. He was highly productive week in and week out, and is Ben Roethlisberger's top target in Pittsburgh. Arguments can be made for Dez Bryant (who just got paid) and Odell Beckham Jr., who could be in this section for years to come, as well as Peyton's top target, Demaryius Thomas, but Brown is the preseason number one at receiver after ending the season at number one in 2014.
"Safe" Picks: Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1320 yards, 15 YPC, 16 TD)
& Jordy Nelson (98 rec, 1519 yards, 15.5 YPC, 13 TD)
Dez is a force of nature in a high-scoring offense in Dallas, and there is no need to worry about him not playing now that he's gotten a new contract. He's a touchdown machine (he led all receivers in touchdowns last season), and has over 1,000 yards (and double-digit touchdowns) in three straight seasons. Jordy is the face of reliability. He's Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, which is always a plus, and he's only missed seven games his entire career (which spans seven years).
Boom/Bust: DeSean Jackson (56 rec, 1169 yards, 20.9 TPC, 6 TD)
& Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 15.7 YPC, 11 TD)
DeSean Jackson is the definition of boom or bust. He averaged over 20 yards-per-catch last season and had six games of over 100 yards receiving, but he also had seven games under 50 yards (one he did not play in). Smith is another deep threat who is now in San Francisco. The Niners don't throw a ton, but Colin Kaepernick has a great arm and Smith is his number one guy now.
Sleepers: Jordan Matthews (67 rec, 872 yards, 13 YPC, 8 TD)
& Amari Cooper (Rookie)
Matthews had a strong rookie season in Chip Kelly's offense, seeing plenty of targets. Now he's the top guy (Jeremy Maclin's gone), and while he won't get all of the looks (there are plenty of other options), he'll surely get a healthy number of opportunities and could improve in his second season. Amari Cooper is likely to step in as Oakland's number one right away. The Heisman Trophy runner-up should have a productive rookie season, and could win Rookie of the Year.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Kevin White (Rookie)
& Allen Robinson (48 rec, 548 yards, 11.4 YPC, 2 TD)
White is not too far behind Cooper in this year's rookie class. Remember OBJ last year? There could be another like him this season, whether it be Cooper, White, or someone else. The major difference between Cooper and White in fantasy is that White will not be the first option in Chicago (that would be Alshon Jeffery). He should, however, get lots of targets and be productive. Robinson has turned into Jacksonville's top receiver, and if Blake Bortles takes a step (or two, or seven) forward this year, Robinson could really benefit.
Dual-Threats: Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 10.6 YPC, 4 TD; 299 return yards, 1 TD)
& Cordarrelle Patterson (33 rec, 384 yards, 11.6 YPC, 1 TD; 871 return yards)
Edelman, when he stays healthy, is a reliable slot receiver in the Wes Welker mold who also provides value in the return game. The questions are if he can stay healthy and if he can have the same production with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback the first four games. I had to reach for the second player in this section. Yes, I'm talking about a favorite of mine, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson took a step back last season when many (me included) expected him to take a step forward, leaving him as the third option in Minnesota's passing game now, but he can still be an electrifying return man, and he will certainly improve as a receiver.
Injury Risks: Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1077 yards, 15.2 YPC, 8 TD)
& Brandin Cooks (53 rec, 550 yards, 10.4 YPC, 3 TD)
Megatron is still an elite talent and one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he took a (baby) step back last season and was bothered by injury. He's still a top-10 fantasy receiver (easily), and if he can stay healthy, possibly top-five. Cooks showed flashes in his rookie year, but missed his last six games due to a thumb injury. With Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills gone, he may see more touches.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Antonio Brown, Steelers
2. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
3. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants
4. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
5. Jordy Nelson, Packers
6. Julio Jones, Falcons
7. Calvin Johnson, Lions
8. A.J. Green, Bengals
9. Alshon Jeffery, Bears
10. Randall Cobb, Packers
Like the running backs, the wide receiver group could be ranked in several different orders. Any of the top three or four could be justified as the top fantasy receiver. Brown is a stud, Bryant's a force, Beckham is a human vacuum, Thomas has a lethal blend of size and speed, Nelson is strong, fast, and consistent, Jones is a supreme talent playing in a dome, Megatron is still Megatron, Green was hampered by injury last season, but is still among the best in the league, Jeffery is a red-zone threat free of Brandon Marshall, and Cobb is Aaron Rodgers' main deep threat.
TE
Top Pick: Rob Gronkowski (2014 stats: 82 rec, 1124 yards, 13.7 YPC, 12 TD)
This is a no-brainer. Gronk is among the best players at any position in the NFL. He is a monster (on the field and on the dance floor). While he is far-and-away the best tight end, he's probably not a smart first round pick (aside from deeper leagues) in fantasy due to his injury history, Tom Brady's suspension, and the the importance of other positions in fantasy relative to tight end.
"Safe" Picks: Greg Olsen (84 catches, 1008 yards, 12 YPC, 6 TD)
& Jason Witten (64 rec, 703 yards, 11 YPC, 5 TD)
These guys are as reliable as they come. Old Greg has at least five touchdowns in seven straight seasons (out of eight total) and continues to be a consistent target for Cam Newton. The sure-handed Witten slipped a little statistically last season, but still had over 700 yards for the 11th straight year (out of 12 total). Both guys are good bets for at least 700 yards and five touchdowns.
Boom/Bust: Travis Kelce (67 rec, 862 yards, 12.9 YPC, 5 TD)
& Julius Thomas (43 rec, 489 yards, 11.4 YPC, 12 TD)
Kelce burst on to the scene last season to become one of the best tight ends in fantasy for much of the year. The 25-year-old did not get playing time in the NFL before last season, so we'll see if he keeps this up. Thomas was a standout in Denver, but now the athletic tight end moves from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles. The bright side is he becomes the top target in Jacksonville after being number two to Demaryius Thomas in Denver, but the Jaguars aren't the Broncos.
Sleepers: Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (21 rec, 221 yards, 10.5 YPC, 2 TD)
& Josh Hill (14 rec, 176 yards, 12.6 YPC, 5 TD)
I'm a fan of ASJ, a big, athletic tight end who has a much better quarterback this year than he did last year. He'll share targets with Vincent Jackson and fellow sophomore Mike Evans, but he could breakout this year with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Hill is the new starting tight end in New Orleans with Jimmy Graham gone. He's not Jimmy Graham, but someone has to replace all of those catches, and Hill showed promise in limited time last year. Drew Brees will throw him the ball a lot, and he could have a breakout season.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Eric Ebron (25 rec, 248 yards, 9.9 YPC, 1 TD)
& Maxx Williams (Rookie)
Ebron struggled as a rookie, playing behind Brandon Pettigrew. Rookies struggle sometimes, so the second year is key to players' development. Ebron has a strong quarterback and will get an opportunity to start this year. Williams was the first tight end drafted this year (out of Minnesota) and will be the primary tight end in Baltimore (with Owen Daniels gone and Dennis Pitta injured again). So the talented pass-catcher will get every opportunity to contribute right away.
Injury Risks: Kyle Rudolph (24 rec, 231 yards, 9.6 YPC, 2 TD)
& Dwayne Allen (29 rec, 395 yards, 13.6 YPC, 8 TD)
Many expected Rudolph to breakout last year under tight end-whisperer Norv Turner, but he couldn't stay healthy (a recurring problem for him). He was virtually nonexistent last season, but he has the ability and he could be a sleeper (if healthy) in 2015. Allen thrived with Andrew Luck last year, but missed some games with a high ankle sprain after missing 15 games due to injury the year before. Coby Fleener is also there, but if Allen doesn't get hurt, he'll get enough passes to be productive again and be a top-10 tight end.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
3. Greg Olsen, Panthers
4. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
5. Martellus Bennett, Bears
6. Julius Thomas, Jaguars
7. Jason Witten, Cowboys
8. Zach Ertz, Eagles
9. Delanie Walker, Titans
10. Josh Hill, Saints
Gronk and Graham are in a class of their own, but the second tier of Olsen, Kelce, Bennett, Thomas, and Witten (and possibly Ertz) are very solid options if you don't get the top two. Walker is the best playmaker in Tennessee's option (although troubled rookie Dorial Green-Beckham is probably the most talented), so he benefits from plenty of action. Hill is a sleeper candidate who could be even higher in the rankings.
D/ST
Top Pick: Seahawks (2014 stats: 37 sacks, 13 INT, 10 fumble recoveries, 3 TD, 254 points allowed, 4274 yards allowed)
The Seahawks have held down the title of the top defense for the last few years now (although they did finish third in fantasy last season). That won't change in 2015. Their key pieces are still there, so there is no reason to think they won't still be an elite defense, both in real life and in fantasy (which is also real life) .
"Safe " Picks: Rams (40 sacks, 13 INT, 12 FR, 5 TD, 354 PA, 5626 YA)
& Texans (37 sacks, 20 INT, 14 FR, 6 TD, 307 PA, 5571 YA)
The Rams, like the Seahawks, started slow last season but finished strong. They have tons of playmakers, including a powerful defensive line that includes talented second-year tackle Aaron Donald, as well as talented ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn. The Texans are safe picks if only because of J.J. Watt, who is the Mike Trout of football (or is it the other way around?). 2014's fourth-ranked defense has other talented players around the NFL's best player.
Boom/Bust: Packers (41 sacks, 18 INT, 9 FR, 6 TD, 348 PA, 5541 YA)
& Eagles (49 sacks, 12 INT, 16 FR, 11 TD, 400 PA, 6009 YA)
The Pack have lost a bit of their luster, but they still can turn out huge fantasy outings. They are inconsistent, but have upside with a strong secondary and some skilled pass-rushers. The Eagles allowed a lot of points and yards last season, but were still the second-best defense in fantasy thanks to 11 touchdowns. That may not be repeatable, but then again, who knows? They did acquire talented linebacker Kiko Alonso and corner Byron Maxwell in the offseason.
Sleepers: Panthers (40 sacks, 14 INT, 12 FR, 3 TD, 374 PA, 5437 YA)
& Browns (30 sacks, 21 INT, 8 FR, 3 TD, 337 PA, 5857 YA)
The Panthers weren't nearly as good in 2014 as they were in 2013, but they were still solid, and still have the league's best tackler, Luke Kuechly, leading the squad. The Browns were good against the pass (thanks to Pro-Bowlers Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson), but were dead-last against the run. They focused on fixing that by drafting nose tackle Danny Shelton and signing end Randy Starks. Look for them to improve against the run and be a solid streaming option depending on the matchup.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Chiefs (46 sacks, 6 INT, 7 FR, 3 TD, 281 PA, 5288 YA)
& Jaguars (45 sacks, 6 INT, 14 FR, 3 TD, 412 PA, 5932 YA)
No need to draft these defenses. But keep an eye on matchups, as they may be decent streaming options against certain teams. The Chiefs were good at limiting yardage and points last season, and they still have last year's sack leader Justin Houston. The Jags have improved, especially in the sack department, and will likely continue to get better.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Seahawks
2. Rams
3. Bills
4. Texans
5. Jets
6. Broncos
7. Ravens
8. Dolphins
9. Cardinals
10. Lions
After Seattle, two through four are pretty close, and all solid options, largely thanks to strong defensive lines. The Jets also have a strong defensive line and new additions Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie (welcome back!). They could be higher on the list, especially with new coach Bruce Arians (Arizona's former defensive coordinator). The Broncos have some strong pass rushers, The Ravens are a solid fantasy defense once again, the Dolphins signed Ndamakong Suh to pair with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, the Cards lost some people (including their defensive coordinator), but are still a good play based on matchup, and while the Lions lost Suh, they did get Haloti Ngata to replace him.
K
Top Pick: Stephen Gostkowski (2014 stats: 35-37 FG (1-1 50+), 51-51 XP)
Gostkowski is once again the best fantasy kicker, thanks to the Patriots strong offense and his accuracy. Even though Tom Brady is out the first four games, Gostkowski should still be at or near the top of the fantasy kicker rankings.
"Safe Picks: Adam Vinatieri (30-31 FG (3-3 50+), 50-50 XP)
& Justin Tucker (29-34 FG (4-9 50+), 42-42 XP)
Vinatieri is still going strong, and there is no reason to think he'll stop all of the sudden. He was the most accurate kicker in the NFL last season, and the Colts play indoors, which always helps. Tucker is the most accurate kicker in NFL history so far in his career (89.8%), and he can also hit them from deep (4-9 from 50 yards or more last season).
Boom/Bust: Blair Walsh (26-35 FG (5-9 50+), 29-29 XP)
& Greg Zuerlein (24-30 FG (5-7 50+), 34-35 XP)
The Blair Walsh Project and Greg the Leg burst on to the scene as rookies three years ago. Walsh was a force, finishing first among all kickers in fantasy, and Zuerlein showed he had a rocket leg (he was 7-13 from 50 yards or more), earning nicknames such as Legatron and Young GZ (and earning the title of my favorite kicker). They haven't been quite that good since, but they are still both good young kickers with strong legs. If they play more like they did their rookie years, they are good kicking options.
Sleepers: Caleb Sturgis (29-37 FG (3-6 50+), 41-41 XP)
& Chandler Catanzaro (29-33 FG (2-3 50+), 27-27 XP)
Sturgis was a busy man last season, and you always want a kicker who gets plenty of opportunities. He also took advantage of many of those opportunities. He should continue to get many attempts. Catanzaro was impressive as a rookie last season, showing very good accuracy (he made his first 17 field goals). He has shown he could be a pretty good fantasy kicker.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Dustin Hopkins (Rookie)
& Sebastian Janikowski (19-22 FG (3-5 50+), 28-28 XP)
Hopkins is the best rookie kicker this year, drafted out of Florida State. He'll be the Saints' kicker, and he'll have the benefit of playing indoors with a good offense. SeaBass still has it, but he played with such a bad offense last season that he didn't get many opportunities. He still has a cannon leg, and Oakland should be better on offense this season.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
3. Steven Hauschka, Seahawks
4. Connor Barth, Broncos
5. Justin Tucker, Ravens
6. Cody Parkey, Eagles
7. Matt Bryant, Falcons
8. Dan Bailey, Cowboys
9. Matt Prater, Lions
10. Dan Carpenter, Bills
Kickers should not be drafted until the last round in fantasy, as no one kicker blows away everyone else. You could pick any of these kickers and be just as well off. I'm not going to go through all of these guys. They're kickers. They kick field goals. I'm done... Okay, I'm not done. I'll go through them. These are almost all reliable veteran kickers who play for good offensive teams. Barth gets the benefit of the thinner air, Parkey was a Pro Bowler as a rookie last year, and Vinatieri, Bryant, and Prater play indoors.
G-Rex's Draft Strategy:
Now I'm going to give you some of my draft strategy. You can utilize this information however you would like. You could use it (or parts of it) in your fantasy football draft, disregard it since you are already a master fantasy football draft strategist and know all (although if that's the case, why are you reading this?), or, if you're in the same league as me, try to use it against me. Draft strategies vary depending on the type of league. I'm in a 10-team PPR (point(s) per reception) league (on ESPN.com) with a QB, two RB, two WR, a TE, two offensive position slots (usually filled by QBs), a D/ST, a K, and a head coach slot (I also usually try to find another league to be in too; if you need an extra guy for a league, let me know). If I'm picking first overall, I'm probably picking a running back (whether it be Jamaal Charles, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, etc.), but in a league like mine where you can start multiple quarterbacks, I may consider Aaron Rodgers. I would not draft a tight end in the first round, and Aaron Rodgers (or possibly Andrew Luck) is the only quarterback I would pick in round one. Mid-to-late first round I might draft a wide receiver, such as Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, or Odell Beckham Jr., but most of the first round picks should be used on the top-heavy running back position. I want to get a running back and starting quarterback early (although you could maybe wait and still get a good QB), as well as at least one stud wide receiver. If I can't get Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, I will wait on a tight end, as there's a drop off after those two. I don't usually like to reach for a defense, although some people do. I usually reserve my last two picks (or two of my last three picks) for a defense and a kicker.
Top Pick is my number one rated player at that position heading into the season. "Safe" Picks are reliable and durable fantasy players who can consistently put up solid fantasy numbers. Boom/Bust are players who are the opposite of the safe picks, inconsistent fantasy performers who could break out one week and put up a dud the next week. Sleepers are players I believe could have breakout seasons and could provide value in the draft. Deep Sleepers/Keepers are players I believe could provide value in deeper leagues (or even normal leagues) and are good players to target in keeper/dynasty leagues. Dual-Threats are players who provide extra value in fantasy because of their involvement in the running game and passing game. Injury Risks are talented players who are injury prone, and are high-risk, high-reward picks.
Stats and information via ESPN.com
QB
Top Pick: Aaron Rodgers (2014 Stats: 341-520, 4381 yards, 38 TD, 5 INT)
Rodgers was the best quarterback in fantasy last year, and there is no reason he won't be again this year. Last year's MVP has elite quarterback skills and an array of weapons in Green Bay, and he can easily tear up any defense. He is the clear number one quarterback in fantasy this year.
"Safe" Picks: Drew Brees (456-659, 4952 yards, 33 TD, 17 INT)
& Matt Ryan (415-628, 4695 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT)
Brees has thrown for over 4,000 yards the past nine years (over 5,000 yards four of those years) and over 30 touchdowns the past seven years. I know he lost his top target (Jimmy Graham) and the Saints might not throw as much as in past years, but he'll still throw a lot. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards the past four years, and still has Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus a new coach and offensive coordinator (Kyle Shanahan, who loves to throw the ball downfield).
Boom/Bust: Matthew Stafford (363-602, 4257 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT)
& Jameis Winston (Rookie)
There is no question Matthew Stafford has the arm talent (he has immense arm strength and the ability to throw from many different arm slots) and talented targets (Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate), but he's plagued by inconsistency and poor decision-making on many throws. Winston is said to be pro-ready, and he has numerous red-zone threats (The tall trio of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins), but he's just a rookie, the interception number last year (18) concerns me, and Tampa's offense was awful last season.
Sleepers: Ryan Tannehill (392-590, 4045 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT)
& Derek Carr (348-599, 3270 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT)
Tannehill showed great improvement last season, and should improve even more this year. He is athletic and can get fantasy owners some extra points on the ground, and he now has a strong group of pass-catchers (Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Jordan Cameron). Carr put up decent stats as a rookie in a weak offense, and now he has a legitimate number one receiver in Amari Cooper.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Marcus Mariota (Rookie)
& Blake Bortles (280-475, 2908 yards, 11 TD, 17 INT)
I believed Mariota was the best quarterback in this year's draft, and I still believe that. However, Tennessee isn't the greatest place to succeed. He is, though, an athletic and intelligent dual-threat quarterback (I think of him as a bigger Russell Wilson), and he is a definite target in keeper/dynasty leagues. Bortles is also an athletic QB with talent (though not as much as Mariota), but he struggled with accuracy as a rookie, and, like Mariota, plays with a less-than-ideal supporting cast. If he can make a leap in his second year, he could provide some value.
Dual-Threats: Cam Newton (262-448, 3127 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT; 103 rushes, 539 yards, 5 TD)
& Colin Kaepernick (289-478, 3369 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT; 104 rushes, 639 yards, 1 TD)
Cam is always a good starting quarterback option in fantasy based solely on his legs. He wasn't quite as good last season (due to injuries and not running as much), but was still solid, and if he can improve his passing, he could become an elite fantasy option. Kaepernick got a lot of flak for San Francisco's struggles last year, but he actually put up decent numbers, and he has undeniable talent. With a new coach and the addition of Torrey Smith, he could be a big bounce-back candidate this season.
Injury Risks: Sam Bradford (Did Not Play)
& Carson Palmer (141-224, 1626 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT)
Sam Bradford has the arm and pocket presence to be a good quarterback, but he can't stay healthy. He tore his ACL (again) last year. Now with the up-tempo Eagles, if he can stay healthy (a huge if), he could be a top-10 fantasy QB. Palmer quietly did a good job of stabilizing the Cardinal offense (when healthy) before tearing his ACL (those darn Anterior Collateral Ligaments!) in Week 10. If healthy, he'll be a solid fantasy starter.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Andrew Luck, Colts
3. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
4. Peyton Manning, Broncos
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
6. Drew Brees, Saints
7. Tony Romo, Cowboys
8. Cam Newton, Panthers
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Rodgers is the current king of fantasy quarterbacks, while Luck is probably the future king of fantasy quarterbacks. Wilson is a dual-threat playing for an elite team that just got an elite tight end. He could be even better this season. While Manning, Big Ben, and Brees aren't getting any younger, they'll continue to be among the best at the position. Newton running ability will always make him a good fantasy quarterback, and when he becomes a better passer, he could potentially vault into the top five. Ryan is consistent, has talented receivers, and will throw a lot, and Tannehill is a breakout candidate if he continues to improve, especially with Miami's offensive additions.
RB
Top Pick: Jamaal Charles (2014 Stats: 206 carries, 1033 yards, 5 yards per carry, 9 TD)
Running back is the hardest position to determine a number one at. You could pick Charles, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray... I'm not even sure about my pick for the top back. I honestly like Peterson and Foster more, but they have more question marks than Charles. Bell would probably be the pick if he wasn't suspended two games, and Lacy (or any of the other backs I named) is ranked number one by others, which I can't argue with. Ok, back to Charles: he won't get the most carries in the league, but he's a great runner who averaged 5 yards-per-carry last season and plays for an offense that will continue to run the ball a lot. He also called himself the Lebron James of football, so now I have to rank him number one.
"Safe" Picks: Marshawn Lynch (280 carries, 1306 yards, 4.7 YPC, 13 TD)
& LeSean McCoy (314 carries, 1319 yards, 4.2 YPC, 5 TD)
"Safe" could also be used to define many running backs in fantasy, including Lacy, Bell, Forte, and Murray, but I went with Lynch and McCoy. Marshawn, despite pundits warning of his decline, keeps on chugging at 29 years old. He's run for over 2,400 yards (and double-digit touchdowns) the last four seasons, and plays in a talented offense that likes to run the ball. Shady didn't perform as well last year as he did in his marvelous 2013 campaign, but he still ran for over 1,300 yards. Now he's a Bill, which could be good (doesn't have to share carries with Darren Sproles, will run the ball a lot due to shaky quarterback play) or bad (has to share carries with Fred Jackson, is in a weaker offense). I think he'll do well, as he's still the most elusive back in the league.
Boom/Bust: Adrian Peterson (Did Not Play)
& C.J. Anderson (179 carries, 849 yards, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD)
Look who's back! The guy who was the clear number one back in fantasy last year, Adrian Peterson. He still could be the best back in the league, but who knows? He only played in one game last year, so people aren't sure what to expect. I expect more or less the same guy. He'll go back to being a top-five (and possibly top-one) fantasy running back. Anderson burst out from a crowded Denver backfield late last season, but Montee Ball and Ronnie Hilllman are still there, and we'll see if he can sustain his stellar play.
Sleepers: Carlos Hyde (83 rushes, 333 yards, 4 YPC, 4 TD)
& Melvin Gordon (Rookie)
I've been on the Carlos Hyde bandwagon for awhile (it helps that he went to The Ohio State University). He has a great blend of size and speed, but was stuck behind Frank Gore last season. Now Gore is in Indy, so Hyde will be the lead back in San Fran, and the only real threat to him for touches is injury-prone Reggie Bush. Gordon is expected by to be the first rookie back selected in many fantasy drafts this year, and for good reason. The 2014 Heisman finalist will be the Chargers' Day 1 starter (sorry Donald Brown) and has big-play ability.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Letavius Murray (82 carries, 424 yards, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD)
& Todd Gurley (Rookie)
Murray looked promising after taking over late last season, and he has the skills to succeed. The only big questions are his injury history and the talent around/in front of him. Gurley may be the best running back in this year's rookie class, but with him coming off ACL surgery and the presence of Tre Mason, he might not get the majority of the carries right away. But make sure to stash him for when he does.
Dual-Threats: Matt Forte (266 carries, 1038 yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD; 102 rec, 808 yards, 4 TD)
& Le'Veon Bell (290 carries, 1361 yards, 4.6 YPC, 8 TD; 83 rec, 854 yards, 3 TD)
Bell would probably be the top fantasy running back if he weren't suspended for the first two games of the season due to a DUI and marijuana possession. Even with the suspension, he's a first round pick thanks to his production on the ground and through the air. He was the number two fantasy running back last year, and will probably be at least top five this year. Forte has been among the best dual-threats out of the backfield for years, including last year, when he set the running back record for catches in a season (102). He could regress this year due to age (30) and a new coach, but he will still be a top-10 fantasy running back.
Injury Risks: Arian Foster (260 carries, 1246 yards, 4.8 YPC, 8 TD)
& Jonathan Stewart (175 rushes, 809 yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD)
Foster can look like the best running back in the league when healthy; the problem is staying on the field. He's played all 16 games twice in his six-year career. Last year he played 13 games, and, like he usually does, produced when healthy. Stewart is no longer handcuffed to DeAngelo Williams, and was very impressive after taking over late last season. He is injury-prone, though, so we'll see if he can stay healthy now that he has a full-time gig. If so, he's a good sleeper candidate.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. Eddie Lacy, Packers
3. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
5. Arian Foster, Texans
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
7. Matt Forte, Bears
8. DeMarco Muray, Eagles
9. LeSean McCoy, Bills
10. C.J. Anderson, Broncos
This is the toughest position to rank. You could conceivably rank the top 10 in just about any order; they're all very close. Charles is a highly-skilled back who was number one in fantasy two years ago, and could be again this year. Lacy and Bell are nearly impossible to take down, and could just as easily claim the top spot. I personally like Peterson and Foster (as long as Foster stays healthy and Peterson picks up where he left off). Lynch has yet to wear down due to age and workload, so there's no reason to believe he will this year. Forte provides value thanks to his receiving role. McCoy and Murray, last season's best running back, have changed teams, so it remains to be seen how that works out, but they are both talented. Anderson gets to play with Peyton Manning in Denver's elite offense, and if he can hold off Ball and Hillman, he can be a top-10 (or top-five) back. Running back may be the most important position in fantasy, and there are many to choose from (but they'll be gone quickly).
WR
Top Pick: Antonio Brown (2014 Stats: 129 rec, 1698 yards, 13.2 yards per catch, 13 TD)
Brown was a beast last season, ruling the wide receiver position. He was highly productive week in and week out, and is Ben Roethlisberger's top target in Pittsburgh. Arguments can be made for Dez Bryant (who just got paid) and Odell Beckham Jr., who could be in this section for years to come, as well as Peyton's top target, Demaryius Thomas, but Brown is the preseason number one at receiver after ending the season at number one in 2014.
"Safe" Picks: Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1320 yards, 15 YPC, 16 TD)
& Jordy Nelson (98 rec, 1519 yards, 15.5 YPC, 13 TD)
Dez is a force of nature in a high-scoring offense in Dallas, and there is no need to worry about him not playing now that he's gotten a new contract. He's a touchdown machine (he led all receivers in touchdowns last season), and has over 1,000 yards (and double-digit touchdowns) in three straight seasons. Jordy is the face of reliability. He's Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, which is always a plus, and he's only missed seven games his entire career (which spans seven years).
Boom/Bust: DeSean Jackson (56 rec, 1169 yards, 20.9 TPC, 6 TD)
& Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 15.7 YPC, 11 TD)
DeSean Jackson is the definition of boom or bust. He averaged over 20 yards-per-catch last season and had six games of over 100 yards receiving, but he also had seven games under 50 yards (one he did not play in). Smith is another deep threat who is now in San Francisco. The Niners don't throw a ton, but Colin Kaepernick has a great arm and Smith is his number one guy now.
Sleepers: Jordan Matthews (67 rec, 872 yards, 13 YPC, 8 TD)
& Amari Cooper (Rookie)
Matthews had a strong rookie season in Chip Kelly's offense, seeing plenty of targets. Now he's the top guy (Jeremy Maclin's gone), and while he won't get all of the looks (there are plenty of other options), he'll surely get a healthy number of opportunities and could improve in his second season. Amari Cooper is likely to step in as Oakland's number one right away. The Heisman Trophy runner-up should have a productive rookie season, and could win Rookie of the Year.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Kevin White (Rookie)
& Allen Robinson (48 rec, 548 yards, 11.4 YPC, 2 TD)
White is not too far behind Cooper in this year's rookie class. Remember OBJ last year? There could be another like him this season, whether it be Cooper, White, or someone else. The major difference between Cooper and White in fantasy is that White will not be the first option in Chicago (that would be Alshon Jeffery). He should, however, get lots of targets and be productive. Robinson has turned into Jacksonville's top receiver, and if Blake Bortles takes a step (or two, or seven) forward this year, Robinson could really benefit.
Dual-Threats: Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 10.6 YPC, 4 TD; 299 return yards, 1 TD)
& Cordarrelle Patterson (33 rec, 384 yards, 11.6 YPC, 1 TD; 871 return yards)
Edelman, when he stays healthy, is a reliable slot receiver in the Wes Welker mold who also provides value in the return game. The questions are if he can stay healthy and if he can have the same production with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback the first four games. I had to reach for the second player in this section. Yes, I'm talking about a favorite of mine, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson took a step back last season when many (me included) expected him to take a step forward, leaving him as the third option in Minnesota's passing game now, but he can still be an electrifying return man, and he will certainly improve as a receiver.
Injury Risks: Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1077 yards, 15.2 YPC, 8 TD)
& Brandin Cooks (53 rec, 550 yards, 10.4 YPC, 3 TD)
Megatron is still an elite talent and one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he took a (baby) step back last season and was bothered by injury. He's still a top-10 fantasy receiver (easily), and if he can stay healthy, possibly top-five. Cooks showed flashes in his rookie year, but missed his last six games due to a thumb injury. With Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills gone, he may see more touches.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Antonio Brown, Steelers
2. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
3. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants
4. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
5. Jordy Nelson, Packers
6. Julio Jones, Falcons
7. Calvin Johnson, Lions
8. A.J. Green, Bengals
9. Alshon Jeffery, Bears
10. Randall Cobb, Packers
Like the running backs, the wide receiver group could be ranked in several different orders. Any of the top three or four could be justified as the top fantasy receiver. Brown is a stud, Bryant's a force, Beckham is a human vacuum, Thomas has a lethal blend of size and speed, Nelson is strong, fast, and consistent, Jones is a supreme talent playing in a dome, Megatron is still Megatron, Green was hampered by injury last season, but is still among the best in the league, Jeffery is a red-zone threat free of Brandon Marshall, and Cobb is Aaron Rodgers' main deep threat.
TE
Top Pick: Rob Gronkowski (2014 stats: 82 rec, 1124 yards, 13.7 YPC, 12 TD)
This is a no-brainer. Gronk is among the best players at any position in the NFL. He is a monster (on the field and on the dance floor). While he is far-and-away the best tight end, he's probably not a smart first round pick (aside from deeper leagues) in fantasy due to his injury history, Tom Brady's suspension, and the the importance of other positions in fantasy relative to tight end.
"Safe" Picks: Greg Olsen (84 catches, 1008 yards, 12 YPC, 6 TD)
& Jason Witten (64 rec, 703 yards, 11 YPC, 5 TD)
These guys are as reliable as they come. Old Greg has at least five touchdowns in seven straight seasons (out of eight total) and continues to be a consistent target for Cam Newton. The sure-handed Witten slipped a little statistically last season, but still had over 700 yards for the 11th straight year (out of 12 total). Both guys are good bets for at least 700 yards and five touchdowns.
Boom/Bust: Travis Kelce (67 rec, 862 yards, 12.9 YPC, 5 TD)
& Julius Thomas (43 rec, 489 yards, 11.4 YPC, 12 TD)
Kelce burst on to the scene last season to become one of the best tight ends in fantasy for much of the year. The 25-year-old did not get playing time in the NFL before last season, so we'll see if he keeps this up. Thomas was a standout in Denver, but now the athletic tight end moves from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles. The bright side is he becomes the top target in Jacksonville after being number two to Demaryius Thomas in Denver, but the Jaguars aren't the Broncos.
Sleepers: Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (21 rec, 221 yards, 10.5 YPC, 2 TD)
& Josh Hill (14 rec, 176 yards, 12.6 YPC, 5 TD)
I'm a fan of ASJ, a big, athletic tight end who has a much better quarterback this year than he did last year. He'll share targets with Vincent Jackson and fellow sophomore Mike Evans, but he could breakout this year with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Hill is the new starting tight end in New Orleans with Jimmy Graham gone. He's not Jimmy Graham, but someone has to replace all of those catches, and Hill showed promise in limited time last year. Drew Brees will throw him the ball a lot, and he could have a breakout season.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Eric Ebron (25 rec, 248 yards, 9.9 YPC, 1 TD)
& Maxx Williams (Rookie)
Ebron struggled as a rookie, playing behind Brandon Pettigrew. Rookies struggle sometimes, so the second year is key to players' development. Ebron has a strong quarterback and will get an opportunity to start this year. Williams was the first tight end drafted this year (out of Minnesota) and will be the primary tight end in Baltimore (with Owen Daniels gone and Dennis Pitta injured again). So the talented pass-catcher will get every opportunity to contribute right away.
Injury Risks: Kyle Rudolph (24 rec, 231 yards, 9.6 YPC, 2 TD)
& Dwayne Allen (29 rec, 395 yards, 13.6 YPC, 8 TD)
Many expected Rudolph to breakout last year under tight end-whisperer Norv Turner, but he couldn't stay healthy (a recurring problem for him). He was virtually nonexistent last season, but he has the ability and he could be a sleeper (if healthy) in 2015. Allen thrived with Andrew Luck last year, but missed some games with a high ankle sprain after missing 15 games due to injury the year before. Coby Fleener is also there, but if Allen doesn't get hurt, he'll get enough passes to be productive again and be a top-10 tight end.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
3. Greg Olsen, Panthers
4. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
5. Martellus Bennett, Bears
6. Julius Thomas, Jaguars
7. Jason Witten, Cowboys
8. Zach Ertz, Eagles
9. Delanie Walker, Titans
10. Josh Hill, Saints
Gronk and Graham are in a class of their own, but the second tier of Olsen, Kelce, Bennett, Thomas, and Witten (and possibly Ertz) are very solid options if you don't get the top two. Walker is the best playmaker in Tennessee's option (although troubled rookie Dorial Green-Beckham is probably the most talented), so he benefits from plenty of action. Hill is a sleeper candidate who could be even higher in the rankings.
D/ST
Top Pick: Seahawks (2014 stats: 37 sacks, 13 INT, 10 fumble recoveries, 3 TD, 254 points allowed, 4274 yards allowed)
The Seahawks have held down the title of the top defense for the last few years now (although they did finish third in fantasy last season). That won't change in 2015. Their key pieces are still there, so there is no reason to think they won't still be an elite defense, both in real life and in fantasy (which is also real life) .
"Safe " Picks: Rams (40 sacks, 13 INT, 12 FR, 5 TD, 354 PA, 5626 YA)
& Texans (37 sacks, 20 INT, 14 FR, 6 TD, 307 PA, 5571 YA)
The Rams, like the Seahawks, started slow last season but finished strong. They have tons of playmakers, including a powerful defensive line that includes talented second-year tackle Aaron Donald, as well as talented ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn. The Texans are safe picks if only because of J.J. Watt, who is the Mike Trout of football (or is it the other way around?). 2014's fourth-ranked defense has other talented players around the NFL's best player.
Boom/Bust: Packers (41 sacks, 18 INT, 9 FR, 6 TD, 348 PA, 5541 YA)
& Eagles (49 sacks, 12 INT, 16 FR, 11 TD, 400 PA, 6009 YA)
The Pack have lost a bit of their luster, but they still can turn out huge fantasy outings. They are inconsistent, but have upside with a strong secondary and some skilled pass-rushers. The Eagles allowed a lot of points and yards last season, but were still the second-best defense in fantasy thanks to 11 touchdowns. That may not be repeatable, but then again, who knows? They did acquire talented linebacker Kiko Alonso and corner Byron Maxwell in the offseason.
Sleepers: Panthers (40 sacks, 14 INT, 12 FR, 3 TD, 374 PA, 5437 YA)
& Browns (30 sacks, 21 INT, 8 FR, 3 TD, 337 PA, 5857 YA)
The Panthers weren't nearly as good in 2014 as they were in 2013, but they were still solid, and still have the league's best tackler, Luke Kuechly, leading the squad. The Browns were good against the pass (thanks to Pro-Bowlers Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson), but were dead-last against the run. They focused on fixing that by drafting nose tackle Danny Shelton and signing end Randy Starks. Look for them to improve against the run and be a solid streaming option depending on the matchup.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Chiefs (46 sacks, 6 INT, 7 FR, 3 TD, 281 PA, 5288 YA)
& Jaguars (45 sacks, 6 INT, 14 FR, 3 TD, 412 PA, 5932 YA)
No need to draft these defenses. But keep an eye on matchups, as they may be decent streaming options against certain teams. The Chiefs were good at limiting yardage and points last season, and they still have last year's sack leader Justin Houston. The Jags have improved, especially in the sack department, and will likely continue to get better.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Seahawks
2. Rams
3. Bills
4. Texans
5. Jets
6. Broncos
7. Ravens
8. Dolphins
9. Cardinals
10. Lions
After Seattle, two through four are pretty close, and all solid options, largely thanks to strong defensive lines. The Jets also have a strong defensive line and new additions Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie (welcome back!). They could be higher on the list, especially with new coach Bruce Arians (Arizona's former defensive coordinator). The Broncos have some strong pass rushers, The Ravens are a solid fantasy defense once again, the Dolphins signed Ndamakong Suh to pair with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, the Cards lost some people (including their defensive coordinator), but are still a good play based on matchup, and while the Lions lost Suh, they did get Haloti Ngata to replace him.
K
Top Pick: Stephen Gostkowski (2014 stats: 35-37 FG (1-1 50+), 51-51 XP)
Gostkowski is once again the best fantasy kicker, thanks to the Patriots strong offense and his accuracy. Even though Tom Brady is out the first four games, Gostkowski should still be at or near the top of the fantasy kicker rankings.
"Safe Picks: Adam Vinatieri (30-31 FG (3-3 50+), 50-50 XP)
& Justin Tucker (29-34 FG (4-9 50+), 42-42 XP)
Vinatieri is still going strong, and there is no reason to think he'll stop all of the sudden. He was the most accurate kicker in the NFL last season, and the Colts play indoors, which always helps. Tucker is the most accurate kicker in NFL history so far in his career (89.8%), and he can also hit them from deep (4-9 from 50 yards or more last season).
Boom/Bust: Blair Walsh (26-35 FG (5-9 50+), 29-29 XP)
& Greg Zuerlein (24-30 FG (5-7 50+), 34-35 XP)
The Blair Walsh Project and Greg the Leg burst on to the scene as rookies three years ago. Walsh was a force, finishing first among all kickers in fantasy, and Zuerlein showed he had a rocket leg (he was 7-13 from 50 yards or more), earning nicknames such as Legatron and Young GZ (and earning the title of my favorite kicker). They haven't been quite that good since, but they are still both good young kickers with strong legs. If they play more like they did their rookie years, they are good kicking options.
Sleepers: Caleb Sturgis (29-37 FG (3-6 50+), 41-41 XP)
& Chandler Catanzaro (29-33 FG (2-3 50+), 27-27 XP)
Sturgis was a busy man last season, and you always want a kicker who gets plenty of opportunities. He also took advantage of many of those opportunities. He should continue to get many attempts. Catanzaro was impressive as a rookie last season, showing very good accuracy (he made his first 17 field goals). He has shown he could be a pretty good fantasy kicker.
Deep Sleepers/Keepers: Dustin Hopkins (Rookie)
& Sebastian Janikowski (19-22 FG (3-5 50+), 28-28 XP)
Hopkins is the best rookie kicker this year, drafted out of Florida State. He'll be the Saints' kicker, and he'll have the benefit of playing indoors with a good offense. SeaBass still has it, but he played with such a bad offense last season that he didn't get many opportunities. He still has a cannon leg, and Oakland should be better on offense this season.
G-Rex's Top 10:
1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
3. Steven Hauschka, Seahawks
4. Connor Barth, Broncos
5. Justin Tucker, Ravens
6. Cody Parkey, Eagles
7. Matt Bryant, Falcons
8. Dan Bailey, Cowboys
9. Matt Prater, Lions
10. Dan Carpenter, Bills
Kickers should not be drafted until the last round in fantasy, as no one kicker blows away everyone else. You could pick any of these kickers and be just as well off. I'm not going to go through all of these guys. They're kickers. They kick field goals. I'm done... Okay, I'm not done. I'll go through them. These are almost all reliable veteran kickers who play for good offensive teams. Barth gets the benefit of the thinner air, Parkey was a Pro Bowler as a rookie last year, and Vinatieri, Bryant, and Prater play indoors.
G-Rex's Draft Strategy:
Now I'm going to give you some of my draft strategy. You can utilize this information however you would like. You could use it (or parts of it) in your fantasy football draft, disregard it since you are already a master fantasy football draft strategist and know all (although if that's the case, why are you reading this?), or, if you're in the same league as me, try to use it against me. Draft strategies vary depending on the type of league. I'm in a 10-team PPR (point(s) per reception) league (on ESPN.com) with a QB, two RB, two WR, a TE, two offensive position slots (usually filled by QBs), a D/ST, a K, and a head coach slot (I also usually try to find another league to be in too; if you need an extra guy for a league, let me know). If I'm picking first overall, I'm probably picking a running back (whether it be Jamaal Charles, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, etc.), but in a league like mine where you can start multiple quarterbacks, I may consider Aaron Rodgers. I would not draft a tight end in the first round, and Aaron Rodgers (or possibly Andrew Luck) is the only quarterback I would pick in round one. Mid-to-late first round I might draft a wide receiver, such as Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, or Odell Beckham Jr., but most of the first round picks should be used on the top-heavy running back position. I want to get a running back and starting quarterback early (although you could maybe wait and still get a good QB), as well as at least one stud wide receiver. If I can't get Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, I will wait on a tight end, as there's a drop off after those two. I don't usually like to reach for a defense, although some people do. I usually reserve my last two picks (or two of my last three picks) for a defense and a kicker.
Monday, July 6, 2015
G-Rex's 2015 MLB All-Star Teams
The MLB All-Star Game (being hosted by my favorite team, the Cincinnati Reds) is just over a week away (next Tuesday), and with the rosters being announced (the starters were announced last night, and the reserves and pitcher will be announced tonight, along with the final vote candidates), I've decided to select my annual MLB All-Star rosters. I am abiding by all the rules of selecting All-Star teams: 34 players (at least one from each team), consisting of 9 starters (8 in the National League), 11 reserves (12 in the National League, one of whom will be used as the DH), 13 pitchers, and one other player who could be a position player or pitcher (the final vote winner). This is who I think should be on the All-Star teams, not who I think will be on the All-Star teams. If I was predicting the rosters, I would be horrible at it, especially considering the starters have already been announced, and my starters don't all match the actual starters. I picked my teams based on statistics (courtesy of FanGraphs.com) and my opinion. Tweet me complaints @GCTosu (or rant to me on Facebook at Grant Tingley, which I may or may not see).
All-Star Teams
* - Injured
^ - Injury Replacement
AL
Starters
C Stephen Vogt, A's
1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers*
2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
3B Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
SS Jose Iglesias, Tigers
OF Mike Trout, Angels
OF Lorenzo Cain, Royals
OF Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
DH Nelson Cruz, Mariners
Reserves
C Russell Martin, Blue Jays
C Salvador Perez, Royals
1B Albert Pujols, Angels
1B Mark Texiera, Yankees^
2B Jose Altuve, Astros
2B Brian Dozier, Twins
3B Manny Machado, Orioles
SS Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
OF Brett Gardner, Yankees
OF J.D. Martinez, Tigers
OF George Springer, Astros*
OF Alex Gordon, Royals
OF Yoenis Cespedes, Tigers^
DH Prince Fielder, Rangers
Pitchers
SP Dallas Keuchel, Astros (Starter)
SP Chris Archer, Rays
SP Chris Sale, White Sox
SP Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
SP Sonny Gray, A's
SP David Price, Tigers
SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners
SP Scott Kazmir, A's
RP Glen Perkins, Twins
RP Wade Davis, Royals
RP Dellin Betances, Yankees
RP Zach Britton, Orioles
RP Mark Lowe, Mariners
Clear Starters: Miguel Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Josh Donaldson, and Mike Trout. Miggy won't be on the field starting (he's injured), but he's the best hitter in the league right now. Kipnis is hitting .341, 35 percentage points higher than any other AL second baseman. Donaldson is my pick for AL MVP (and has been for most of the season so far), and Trout is the best all-around player in the league.
Toughest Decision: Who should start in the outfield. There are a plethora of American League outfielders you could make a case for. Trout is the only clear choice to start. Then one could choose between the likes of Cain, Bautista, Gardner, Gordon, and Martinez, among others. I went with Cain, who's playing exceptional for the first place Royals, and Bautista, who's bashing (as he usually does) for the Blue Jays.
Toughest Omissions: Brian McCann (C, Yankees), Dustin Pedroia (2B, Red Sox), Mike Moustakas (3B, Royals), Carlos Correa (SS, Astros), and Alex Rodriguez (DH, Yankees). McCann has played very well for the Yanks, especially recently, but Perez is a good player on a first place team that went to the World Series last year, Russell Martin is the best catcher in the AL right now, and Stephen Vogt does a pretty good Chris Farley impersonation. Pedroia is always in contention for an All-Star nod, but he's dealt with injuries (he's currently on the DL), and Kipnis, Altuve, and Dozier are more deserving this year. Moose has been a key cog for the Royals, but Donaldson and Machado are too good to pass up. Correa might be the best shortstop in the American League already, but he's only played 25 games in the Majors. I don't really like A-Rod, but the numbers don't lie. However, Prince is hitting .347, so he gets the backup DH spot.
Starting Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel. ESPN baseball analyst Buster Olney tweeted last night "Decided there is no absolute right answer to this question: Who should be the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star Game?" My response was "Sondallix Prarchale." No, I was not tweeting in my sleep or just typing random letters. It was a combination of Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez, David Price, Chris Archer, and Chris Sale. In the end, it came down to Keuchel, Archer, and Sale for me. I went with Keuchel, who's been an ace for the surprisingly great Astros, leading MLB in ERA.
Obscure Reliever Inclusion: Mark Lowe. Mark Lowe's inclusion may leave some people scratching their heads. All-Star pitchers are usually starters and closers, but in recent years there have been some set-up men chosen. Those guys should be recognized too, especially if they're pitching lights-out, which Marke Lowe is doing. Lowe has a 0.72 ERA in 25 innings pitched thus far this season. That is, to quote the illustrious Adam Sandler, "not too shabby".
NL
Starters
C Buster Posey, Giants
1B Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs
2B Dee Gordon, Marlins
3B Todd Frazier, Reds
SS Brandon Crawford, Giants
OF Bryce Harper, Nationals
OF Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins*
OF Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Reserves
C Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers
C Francisco Cervelli, Pirates
1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
1B Joey Votto, Reds
2B Joe Panik, Giants
3B Nolan Arenado, Rockies
3B Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
3B Kris Bryant, Cubs
SS Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
OF A.J. Pollock, D-Backs^
OF Justin Upton, Padres
OF Ryan Braun, Brewers
Pitchers
SP Max Scherzer, Nationals (Starter)
SP Gerrit Cole, Pirates
SP Zack Greinke, Dodgers
SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
SP A.J. Burnett, Pirates
SP Shelby Miller, Braves
SP Johnny Cueto, Reds
SP Cole Hamels, Phillies
RP Aroldis Chapman, Reds
RP Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals
RP Drew Storen, Nationals
RP Jeurys Familia, Mets
RP A.J. Ramos, Marlins
Clear Starters: Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton. Posey is far and away the best catcher in baseball, and Goldschmidt is good as gold (I just couldn't help myself) in Arizona. The ToddFather isn't a clear starter because he's clearly the best third baseman in the NL (it's close between him, Nolan Arenado, and Kris Bryant), but because the All-Star game is in Cincinnati and he's the face of the Reds. Manager Bruce Bochy could put Frazier at DH and Arenado (who's a better fielder) at third, or vice-versa. Harper is currently living up to all the hype he got as a prospect, and Stanton, who won't be playing due to injury, is a monster.
Toughest Decision: What starting pitchers should make it. There is so much good pitching in the National League. Among the pitchers I had to omit from the roster: Jacob DeGrom (Mets), Lance Lynn (Cardinals), Michael Wacha (Cardinals), Carlos Martinez (Cardinals), Jake Arrieta (Cubs), Jason Hammel (Cubs), and Francisco Liriano (Pirates). All of those pitchers have an ERA under 3.00. Oh, I also had to leave off last year's World Series MVP, Madison Bumgarner (he's 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA). But I have an idea about how to fix this. They have a home run derby involving all of these National League pitchers. The top 8 get in the All-Star Game.
Toughest Omissions: All of those pitchers, Freddie Freeman (1B, Braves), Charlie Blackmon (OF, Rockies), Matt Holliday (OF, Cardinals), and Adeiny Hecchavarria (SS, Marlins). I've already covered the pitchers. Freeman and Holliday were both playing well when they got hurt, and I could have put them in without taking anyone out, but I decided not to. Blackmon made the All-Star Game last year thanks to a hot start, but by the time the All-Star Game came around, he had come back down to earth. However, this year, he's still playing well, with a high average and double digits in both home runs and stolen bases. Hecchavarria is a favorite of mine (and not just because of his name... anymore). He continues to hit well and play outstanding defense. He was just squeezed out by two slugging shortstops.
Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer. Scherzer is on fire right now. You can't stop him, you can only hope to
contain him. His Wins Above Replacement (according to FanGraphs) is currently 1.6 wins higher than the next closest NL pitcher. An argument could be made for Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke, who are also pitching fabulously, but Scherzer is on top right now.
Obscure Reliever Inclusion: A.J. Ramos. Ramos started the season as a set-up man in Miami, but took the closer role after submariner Steve Chisek struggled. Ramos has pitched wonderfully in both roles. He has a 1.19 ERA and 13 saves in 37 and 2/3 innings.
Friday, May 8, 2015
2015 NFL Draft Review: Team-by-Team Analysis
The 2015 NFL Draft has come to a close. And while we won't know how good each team's draft class is for at least a couple of years (three is the normal measuring stick), many people judge draft classes right after the draft, based on player projections and how many needs a team filled. I'll look at each team's draft haul, including their top pick and they're best value pick. I'm not a scout (I'm mostly going off what actual scouts are saying), but you will see common draft buzz words such as "steal", "sleeper", "potential", "value", "injury concerns", and "character concerns". (Stats and information from NFL.com)
Arizona Cardinals
Top Pick: Florida OT D.J. Humphries (24th overall)
Humphries is a good pick up for the Cardinals, who are revamping their offensive line. He could have been drafted higher and could possibly end up being the best lineman in this draft.
Best Value: Northern Iowa RB David Johnson (86th)
Johnson is a big back (6'1", 224 lbs.) who performed well at the combine (4.5 40), and could be a good compliment to the smaller Andre Ellington.
Other Picks:
Arizona Cardinals
Top Pick: Florida OT D.J. Humphries (24th overall)
Humphries is a good pick up for the Cardinals, who are revamping their offensive line. He could have been drafted higher and could possibly end up being the best lineman in this draft.
Best Value: Northern Iowa RB David Johnson (86th)
Johnson is a big back (6'1", 224 lbs.) who performed well at the combine (4.5 40), and could be a good compliment to the smaller Andre Ellington.
Other Picks:
- Missouri DE Marcus Golden (58th)
- Delaware St. DE Rodney Gunter (116th)
- West Virginia DE Shaquille Riddick (158th)
- UAB WR J.J. Nelson (159th)
- Louisville TE Gerald Christian (256th)
Atlanta Falcons
Top Pick: Clemson OLB Vic Beasley (8th)
Beasley is a great match for a team that had the worst defense in the NFL last year. He's an elite pass rusher with very high athleticism who should make an impact early.
Best Value: Clemson NT Grady Jarrett (137th)
Jarrett is another strong addition to the Falcons' porous defense, and a great value in the fifth round, as he was projected as high as round two.
Other Picks:
- LSU CB Jalen Collins (42nd)
- Indiana RB Tevin Coleman (73rd)
- East Carolina WR Justin Hardy (107th)
- Eastern Washington OT Jake Rodgers (225th)
- San Jose St. DB Akeem King (249th)
Baltimore Ravens
Top Pick: UCF WR Breshad Perriman (26th)
Perriman saw his draft stock rise immensely, with some projecting him as high as ten, so Baltimore was happy to get Torrey Smith's replacement at 26.
Best Value: Iowa DT Carl Davis (90th)
The 6'5", 320-pound Davis was projected as a high second round pick, and the Ravens got the guy who could help fill Haloti Ngata's void late in the third round.
Other Picks:
- Minnesota TE Maxx Williams (55th)
- Kentucky DE Za'Darius Smith (122nd)
- USC RB Javorius Allen (125th)
- Texas Southern CB Tray Walker (136th)
- Delaware TE Nick Boyle (171st)
- Tennessee St. G Robert Myers (176th)
- Georgia Tech WR Darren Waller (204th)
Buffalo Bills
Top Pick: Florida St. CB Ronald Darby (50th)
The Bills traded their first round pick to the Browns so they could move up and get Sammy Watkins last year. Darby is quick and agile, but joins an already strong cornerback group.
Best Value: Florida St. TE Nick O'Leary (194th)
The Bills didn't really get any significant values, but O'Leary, a fifth round pick, was a productive pass-catcher at Florida St. However, he must compete with similar tight ends Charles Clay and Chris Gragg.
Other Picks:
- Louisville G John Miller (81st)
- Florida St. RB Karlos Williams (155th)
- Clemson OLB Tony Steward (188th)
- Central Arkansas WR Dezmin Lewis (234th)
Carolina Panthers
Top Pick: Washington OLB Shaq Thompson (25th)
Thompson could be a potential replacement for the man who announced the pick, Thomas Davis. Or he could be a safety. He brings athleticism and versatility to the Panthers.
Best Value: Auburn RB Cameron Artis-Payne (174th)
Artis-Payne was an essential part of Auburn's run-heavy offense, and the fifth round pick can fill the void left by DeAngelo Williams.
Other Picks:
- Michigan WR Devin Funchess (41st)
- Oklahoma G Daryl Williams (102nd)
- Texas St. LB David Mayo (169th)
Chicago Bears
Top Pick: West Virginia WR Kevin White (7th)
White is a great pick for Chicago after they let Brandon Marshall go. He'll help the Bears maintain their dangerous passing game with Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte.
Best Value: Penn St. FS Adrian Amos (142nd)
The 6'0", 218-pound Amos is an athletic defensive back who makes good reads and has strong measurables.
Other Picks:
- Florida St. DT Eddie Goldman (39th)
- Oregon C Hroniss Grasu (71st)
- Michigan St. RB Jeremy Langford (106th)
- TCU OT Tayo Fabuluje (183rd)
Cincinnati Bengals
Top Pick: Texas A&M OT Cedric Ogbuehi (21st)
Ogbuehi is a big, strong, physical tackle who was first-team All-SEC and third-team AP All-American last season. However, he is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the Liberty Bowl.
Best Value: TCU LB Paul Dawson (99th)
Dawson was extremely productive last season for TCU, winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with 136 tackles and 20 tackles for a loss. However, he has character issues and had a poor combine.
Other Picks:
- Oregon OT Jake Fisher (53rd)
- Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft (85th)
- USC CB Josh Shaw (120th)
- Arizona St. DE Marcus Hardison (135th)
- Auburn TE C.J. Uzomah (157th)
- Fresno St. FS Derron Smith (197th)
- West Virginia WR Marion Alford (238th)
Cleveland Browns
Top Pick: Washington NT Danny Shelton (12th)
The 6'2", 339-pound Shelton fills a pressing need for the Browns, who had the worst run defense in the NFL last season. He is strong and pretty quick for his size.
Best Value: Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (241st)
I believe Ekpre-Olomu could be the steal of the draft. He was a projected first round pick before tearing his ACL during practice in December, and he could be a starter if/when he fully recovers.
Other Picks:
- Florida St. C Cameron Erving (19th)
- Utah DE Nate Orchard (51st)
- Miami RB Duke Johnson (77th)
- Washington St. DT Xavier Cooper (96th)
- Northwestern SS Ibraheim Campbell (115th)
- Washington St. WR Vince Mayle (123rd)
- Louisville CB Charles Gaines (189th)
- Mississippi St. TE Malcolm Johnson (195th)
- USC TE Randall Telfer (198th)
- USC LB Hayes Pullard (219th)
Dallas Cowboys
Top Pick: Connecticut CB Byron Jones (27th)
Dallas needed a cornerback, and Jones, who's stock rose leading up to the draft, is a good fit. He has good size (6'1") and explosiveness.
Best Value: Nebraska OLB Randy Gregory (60th)
Gregory was a top-five talent before failing a drug test at the combine, and while many expected him to fall, they didn't expect him to fall this far.
Other Picks:
- Florida OT Chaz Green (91st)
- Minnesota LB Damien Wilson (127th)
- Purdue DE Ryan Russell (163rd)
- Wyoming OLB Mark Nzeocha (236th)
- Virginia Tech OT Laurence Gibson (243rd)
- Texas TE Geoff Swaim (246th)
Denver Broncos
Top Pick: Missouri DE Shane Ray (23rd)
Denver traded up to select the top-ten talent who fell due to a marijuana-related arrest three days before the draft. If he stays out of trouble, the Broncos got a steal at 23.
Best Value: Florida C Max Garcia (133rd)
Garcia could be a good value based on versatility. He played center, guard, and tackle at Florida, which provides flexibility for Denver.
Other Picks:
- Colorado St. OT Ty Sambrailo (59th)
- Ohio St. TE Jeff Heuerman (92nd)
- Tulane CB Lorenzo Doss (164th)
- Maryland NT Darius Kilgo (203rd)
- Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian (250th)
- Tulane DB Taurean Nixon (251st)
- Oklahoma St. DB Josh Furman (252nd)
Detroit Lions
Top Pick: Duke G Laken Tomlinson (28th)
The Lions traded down in the first round with the Broncos, getting the strong, hard-working Tomlinson to improve their line.
Best Value: Auburn DT Gabe Wright (113th)
Wright is a big, talented tackle who's college production didn't match his talent. If he produces like he is potentially capable of, he's a very good pick.
Other Picks:
- Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah (54th)
- Stanford CB Alex Carter (80th)
- Rutgers FB Michael Burton (168th)
- Texas CB Quandre Diggs (200th)
- South Carolina DT Corey Robinson (240th)
Green Bay Packers
Top Pick: Arizona St. FS Damarious Randall (30th)
The Packers got a good cover safety in Randall. He was All-Pac-12 last season with 106 tackles. He was the first safety selected and could be the best.
Best Value: Michigan OLB Jake Ryan (129th)
Ryan is a good leader with a high work ethic who was productive at Michigan. That alone could provide value, and if he shows good skills in the NFL, that's even better.
Other Picks:
- Miami (OH) CB Quinten Rollins (62nd)
- Stanford WR Ty Montgomery (94th)
- UCLA QB Brett Hundley (147th)
- Oklahoma FB Aaron Ripkowski (206th)
- Louisiana-Lafayette DE Christian Ringo (210th)
- UAB TE Kennard Backman (213th)
Houston Texans
Top Pick: Wake Forest CB Kevin Johnson (16th)
Johnson may be the best defensive back in the draft, without the character issues of Marcus Peters. He is very quick and continues to get better.
Best Value: Arizona St. WR Jaelen Strong (70th)
Strong was a potential first round pick who fell in a deep receiver class. He is a possession receiver with great hands.
Other Picks:
- Mississippi St. LB Benardrick McKinney (43rd)
- Michigan St. WR Keith Mumphrey (175th)
- USF OLB Reshard Cliett (211th)
- Rice DT Christian Covington (216th)
- LSU RB Kenny Hilliard (235th)
Indianapolis Colts
Top Pick: Miami WR Phillip Dorsett (29th)
Taking a receiver in the first round was a little questionable for the Colts, who are stocked with pass-catchers. Nonetheless, Dorsett is a fast and talented receiver.
Best Value: Stanford DE Henry Anderson (93rd)
The 6'6", 294-pound end is athletic and a hard worker, making him a pretty good value late in the third round.
Other Picks:
- FAU CB D'Joun Smith (65th)
- UCF SS Clayton Geathers (109th)
- Stanford NT David Parry (151st)
- Mississippi St. RB Josh Robinson (205th)
- Georgia LB Amario Herrera (207th)
- Mars Hill OT Denzell Goode (255th)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Top Pick: Florida OLB Dante Fowler Jr. (3rd)
Fowler is a good pick for the Jags. He is an explosive, athletic pass rusher and the best linebacker in the draft. He had 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for a loss last season for Florida.
Best Value: Ohio St. DT Michael Bennett (180th)
It's a wonder Bennett, a national champion who was projected to go in the second or third round, lasted until the sixth round.
Other Picks:
- Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon (36th)
- South Carolina G A.J. Cann (67th)
- Louisville SS James Sample (104th)
- Florida St. WR Rashad Greene (139th)
- Monmouth (NJ) WR Neal Sterling (220th)
- Notre Dame TE Ben Koyack (229th)
Kansas City Chiefs
Top Pick: Washington CB Marcus Peters (18th)
The Chiefs needed a corner, and although Peters has character issues, he may be the best corner in the draft on the field. If he matures, he will really help Kansas City's defense.
Best Value: Georgia WR Chris Conley (76th)
Conley has good speed (4.35 40) and size (6'2", 213 lbs.), and is a smart player. He will help a receiving corps that didn't score a single touchdown last year.
Other Picks:
- Missouri G Mitch Morse (49th)
- Oregon St. CB Steven Nelson (98th)
- Georgia LB Ramik Wilson (118th)
- Oregon St. OLB D.J. Alexander (172nd)
- Illinois St. TE James O'Shaughnessy (217th)
- Southern Miss DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (217th)
- Northern Illinois WR Da'Ron Brown (233rd)
Miami Dolphins
Top Picks: Louisville WR DeVante Parker (14th)
Parker was a wonderful pick for the Dolphins, who got a highly talented wide receiver who will make an impact from day one.
Best Value: Boise St. RB Jay Ajayi (149th)
Ajayi was a second round possibility, but fell due to injury and durability concerns. He is a talented back who might have been a steal in the fifth round.
Other Picks:
- Oklahoma NT Jordan Phillips (52nd)
- Arizona St. G Jamil Douglas (114th)
- Memphis CB Bobby McCain (145th)
- Minnesota FS Cedric Thompson (150th)
- Michigan St. WR Tony Lippett (156th)
Minnesota Vikings
Top Pick: Michigan St. CB Trae Waynes (11th)
Minnesota did what many thought they would do, getting the best defensive back in the draft to fill a need at cornerback. Waynes is a good press corner from the Big Ten.
Best Value: Pittsburgh OT T.J. Clemmings (110th)
Clemmings was an absolute steal in the fourth round. A projected first round pick, Clemmings fell due to injury concerns.
Other Picks:
- UCLA LB Eric Kendricks (45th)
- LSU DE Danielle Hunter (88th)
- Southern Illinois TE MyCoyle Pruitt (143rd)
- Marlyland WR Stefon Diggs (146th)
- Oklahoma OT Tyrus Thompson (185th)
- Louisville DB B.J. Dubose (193rd)
- Alabama OT Austin Shepherd (228th)
- Newberry OLB Edmond Robinson (232nd)
New England Patriots
Top Pick: Texas DT Malcolm Brown (32nd)
Brown was quite possibly the steal of the first round. The defending champs got the physical Texas tackle at 32.
Best Value: Florida St. G Tre' Jackson (111th)
At 6'4", 330, Jackson is a big guard from the SEC who has a lot of ability, and is a good addition to the New England offensive line.
Other Picks:
- Stanford SS Jordan Richards (64th)
- Oklahoma DE Geneo Grissom (97th)
- Arkansas DE Trey Flowers (101st)
- Georgia Tech C Shaq Mason (131st)
- Navy LS Joe Cardona (166th)
- Mississippi St. LB Matthew Wells (178th)
- Arkansas TE A.J. Derby (202nd)
- Marshall CB Darryl Roberts (247th)
- Alabama OLB Xzavier Dickson (153rd)
New Orleans Saints
Top Pick: Stanford OT Andrus Peat (13th)
The Saints used the first of their two first round picks to solidify their line, selecting Peat, viewed by many as the best lineman in the draft.
Best Value: Florida St. CB P.J. Williams (78th)
Williams is a talented player who won a National Championship with the Seminoles, but whose draft stock fell due to a DUI that was ultimately dismissed.
Other Picks:
- Clemson LB Stephone Anthony (31st)
- Washington OLB Hau'oli Kikaha (44th)
- Colorado St. QB Garrett Grayson (75th)
- Tennessee-Chattanooga OLB Davis Tull (148th)
- Fresno St. DT Tyeler Davison (154th)
- Georgia CB Damian Swann (167th)
- Missouri RB Marcus Murphy (230th)
Top Pick: Miami G Ereck Flowers (9th)
The Giants predictably added to the offensive line, picking up the big (6'6", 329 lbs.), powerful Flowers, who will slot right into New York's line.
Best Value: UCLA DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (74th)
A contender for best name in the draft, Odighizuwa is a physically gifted edge rusher who had six sacks and 11.5 tackles for a loss last season. He fell due to past injury concerns.
Other Picks:
- Alabama SS Landon Collins (33rd)
- Texas S Mykkele Thompson (144th)
- Connecticut WR Geremy Davis (186th)
- Florida St. G Bobby Hart (226th)
Top Pick: USC DE Leonard Williams (6th)
The Jets did well in landing the consensus number one prospect in the draft at six. He joins an already stacked defensive line in New York.
Best Value: Texas A&M G Jarvis Harrison (152nd)
The 6'4", 330-pound Harrison is a talented guard with good size and potential, and was a good pick in the fifth round.
Other Picks:
- Ohio St. WR Devin Smith (37th)
- Louisville OLB Lorenzo Mauldin (82nd)
- Baylor QB Bryce Petty (103rd)
- Northwestern St. (LA) NT Deon Simon (223rd)
Top Pick: Alabama WR Amari Cooper (4th)
The Raiders added a talented receiver to pair with Derek Carr. Cooper is a stud and is the best receiver in a loaded receiver draft class.
Best Value: Miami TE Clive Walford (68th)
Walford is a very good tight end, challenging Maxx Williams for best tight end in the draft class. He is highly athletic and was productive at Miami.
Other Picks:
- Florida St. DT Mario Edwards Jr. (35th)
- Miami G Jon Feliciano (128th)
- Kansas LB Ben Heeney (140th)
- Florida OLB Neiron Ball (161st)
- Virginia OLB Max Valles (179th)
- Tennessee St. OL Anthony Morris (218th)
- Florida WR Andre Debose (221st)
- Kansas CB Dexter McDonald (242nd)
Top Pick: USC WR Nelson Agholor (20th)
The Eagles did not trade up for Marcus Mariota, instead drafting another Pac-12 player in USC speedster Nelson Agholor, who rose up draft boards leading up to the draft.
Best Value: Kansas CB JaCorey Shepherd (191st)
While not having much experience at corner, Shepherd was productive at Kansas and has a lot of potential in the NFL. Good pick in the sixth round.
Other Picks:
- Utah CB Eric Rowe (47th)
- Texas OLB Jordan Hicks (84th)
- Kansas St. CB Randall Evans (196th)
- Boston College DE Brian Mihalik (237th)
Top Pick: Kentucky OLB Bud Dupree (22nd)
The Steelers did what the Steelers do, adding a highly talented linebacker later in the first round. Dupree was a potential top ten pick, so the Steelers may have gotten a steal.
Best Value: Ohio St. CB Doran Grant (121st)
Grant is a smart, aware player who addresses a need for the Steelers. He was a productive player on a National Champion and may play right away.
Other Picks:
- Mississippi CB Senquez Golson (56th)
- Auburn WR Sammie Coates (87th)
- Penn St. TE Jesse James (160th)
- Central Michigan DT Leterrius Walton (199th)
- Miami DE Anthony Chickillo (212th)
- Louisville FS Gerod Holliman (239th)
Top Pick: Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon (15th)
The Chargers wanted a running back, and they traded up to make sure they got Gordon, a Heisman finalist who was rated as the clear-cut number two back in the draft.
Best Value: Arkansas DT Darius Philon (192nd)
The Chargers didn't really get a huge value, but Philon, their final pick, has good upside and athleticism for a sixth round pick.
Other Picks:
- Miami LB Denzel Perryman (48th)
- Texas St. CB Craig Mager (83rd)
- North Dakota St. OLB Kyle Emanuel (153rd)
Top Pick: Oregon DT Arik Armstead (17th)
San Francisco got the tall (6'7"), athletic pass rusher from Oregon who is more appealing for his potential then his past production.
Best Value: Virginia OLB Eli Harold (79th)
Harold was a projected high second round pick, and the 49ers got the talented linebacker in the middle of the third round.
Other Picks:
- Samford SS Jaquiski Tartt (46th)
- Oklahoma TE Blake Bell (117th)
- South Carolina RB Mike Davis (126th)
- Georgia Tech WR DeAndre Smelter (132nd)
- Clemson P Bradley Pinion (165th)
- Boston College G Ian Silberman (190th)
- Florida G Trenton Brown (244th)
- South Carolina TE Rory Anderson (254th)
Top Pick: Michigan DE Frank Clark (63rd)
The Seahawks traded their first round pick to New Orleans for Jimmy Graham, so their first pick was the troubled former Michigan end.
Best Value: Kansas St. WR Tyler Lockett (69th)
Another part of a strong receiver class, Lockett is an electrifying playmaker who is dangerous on offense and on special teams.
Other Picks:
- San Diego St. G Terry Poole (130th)
- West Virginia G Mark Glowinski (134th)
- Towson CB Tye Smith (170th)
- Oregon St. DE Obum Gwacham (209nd)
- Buffalo DT Kristjan Sokoli (214th)
- Oregon St. DB Ryan Murphy (248th)
Top Pick: Georgia RB Todd Gurley (10th)
The Rams got a player some compared to Adrian Peterson, albeit coming off an ACL tear. He will add much-needed pop to the Ram offense.
Best Value: Iowa OT Andrew Donnal (119th)
The Rams didn't really get a steal, but the 6'6", 313-pound Big Ten lineman adds versatility, as he played tackle and guard in college.
Other Picks:
- Wisconsin OT Rob Havenstein (57th)
- Louisville OT Jamon Brown (72nd)
- Oregon St. QB Sean Mannion (89th)
- Missouri WR Bud Sasser (201st)
- Fresno St. G Cody Wichmann (215th)
- Baylor LB Bryce Hager (224th)
- Memphis DE Martin Ifedi (227th)
Top Pick: Florida St. QB Jameis Winston (1st)
The Bucs got their guy with the first pick of the draft, getting a player many thought was the most pro ready in the draft. He just needs to mature and cut down on turnovers.
Best Value: LSU OLB Kwon Alexander (124th)
Alexander is a good athlete with speed and quickness who could contribute right away. He had 90 tackles last year at LSU and is a value late in the third round.
Other Picks:
- Penn St. OT Donovan Smith (34th)
- Hobart C Ali Marpet (61st)
- Nebraska WR Kenny Bell (162nd)
- Utah WR Kaelin Clay (184th)
- Hawaii FB Joey Iosefa (231st)
Top Pick: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota (2nd)
The Titans, who were subject to multiple trade rumors prior to the draft, stayed put and selected Mariota, who some (including me) think is the best quarterback in this draft.
Best Value: William & Mary WR Tre McBride (245th)
McBride was a sleeper from a small school, and the Titans got him late in the seventh round. He's not the fastest receiver, but he has great hands.
Other Picks:
- Oklahoma WR Dorial Green-Beckham (40th)
- Utah G Jeremiah Poutasi (66th)
- Auburn DT Angelo Blackson (100th)
- Alabama FB Jalston Fowler (108th)
- Minnesota RB David Cobb (138th)
- Louisville OLB Deiontrez Mount (177th)
- Boston College C Andy Gallik (208th)
Top Pick: Iowa G Brandon Scherff (5th)
Washington pulled off the first "surprise" of the draft, picking Scherff, the best lineman in the class, over more highly rated defensive players.
Best Value: Alabama G Arie Kouandjio (112th)
He, like his brother Cyrus, is a big, strong run blocker (although Cyrus is a better pass blocker), but unlike Cyrus, who was drafted in the second round last year, he was picked in the fourth round.
Other Picks:
- Mississippi St. DE Preston Smith (38th)
- Florida RB Matt Jones (95th)
- Duke WR Jamison Crowder (105th)
- Arkansas OLB Martrell Spaight (141st)
- Virginia Tech SS Kyshoen Jarrett (181st)
- Arkansas CB Tevin Mitchel (182nd)
- Ohio St. WR Evan Spencer (187th)
- USF C Austin Reiter (222nd)
Monday, April 27, 2015
2015 NFL Draft Primer: G-Rex's Mock Draft 1.0
Football season never really ends. From August to February, games are played, in March, the combine is held and players are scouted in preparation for the NFL Draft, April and May is the time of the draft, and then the summer is for training camps and the preseason. Right now, it's NFL Draft season. This is the time of year when young 20-something year-old's are scrutinized and judged based on things like how quickly they can run 40 yards and how they conduct themselves in interviews. It is also the time when a multitude of so-called "draft experts" give their mock drafts and who they think are the top players in the draft. I am by no means a "draft expert", but I thought I'd try my hand at a mock draft (1st round only) anyway. I'm basing my picks off of other people's mock drafts, rumors of teams' interest in a certain player, and, most importantly, team needs. (Note: I will not be predicting trades, although there are sure to be some)
(Stats and information from NFL.com)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.
I don't believe Jameis Winston is the best player in the draft (or quarterback, for that matter), and I'm not sure he will succeed in the NFL (he needs to mature first). However, he is viewed by the majority as the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, basically every draft analyst has him as the first overall pick, and the Bucs are a QB-needy team who can't pass up the opportunity to get a quarterback who can step in and play right away. He does bring arm strength, good intelligence and ability to read on the field (although his off-field intelligence may be lacking), and good size (6'4", 230 lbs.).
2. Tennessee Titans: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
I think this will come down to Mariota and defensive end Leonard Williams, widely regarded as the best prospect in the draft (or they will trade down). The Titans have a need at both positions, but after the early retirement of Jake Locker and the doubt in Zack Mettenberger as a long-term solution, I can't see the Titans passing up on a quarterback with prototypical size (6'4", 219 lbs.), athleticism, college success (won the Heisman this past year), and high character, even if it means passing on a 6'5", 300-pound defensive end.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Leonard Williams, USC
The Jaguars would surely be delighted if Williams fell to them. He would strengthen the Jags' already strong defensive front (T-6th in sacks last year). Williams brings the rare combination of size (as I said before, 6'5", 300 lbs.), speed (4.53-second 40), and past production (First-Team All-Pac-12 last year). There is no way Williams will fall out of the top three.
4. Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
The Raiders will most likely choose Cooper or West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White here (unless they trade the pick), since receiver is their biggest need. Both Cooper and White are supremely talented wide receivers who will come in and instantly make an impact, improving an Oakland offense that is quarterbacked by impressive sophomore Derek Carr. I'll say Cooper, who is rated by most as the best receiver in the draft and was the most dangerous receiver in college football last year.
5. Washington Redskins: OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
The Redskins could trade out of this pick, either with a team desperate for a wide receiver (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White will most likely still be on the board here) or a team desperate for a quarterback (if the Titans don't pick Mariota, a team may trade up for him). If they don't, Vic Beasley is a very good option. He's a talented outside linebacker from Clemson who was the best OLB at the combine, and he would add great depth to the Washington corps.
6. New York Jets: WR Kevin White, West Virginia
The Jets would love it if Winston or Mariota fell this far, but if they don't, the next best option would probably be one of the top two receivers in the draft. Others might have them choosing Shane Ray or some other defensive lineman or linebacker here, but White would help solidify the Jets receiving corps alongside Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. White was a playmaker at West Virginia, and he ran one of the fastest 40-yard dashes at the combine (4.35 seconds).
7. Chicago Bears: OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Fowler could possibly go as high as number three, but in this mock, the Bears snatch him up at eight. He is an athletic and explosive edge rusher who had 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for a loss last season at Florida. He will immediately upgrade the Chicago defense and fill a need.
8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Ray is a good fit for Atlanta. They need pass-rushers, and Ray is a ferocious pass-rusher. He is very explosive and can get to the quarterback. He is a disruptive force who won SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season with 14.5 sacks.
9. New York Giants: OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa
This is a good fit for the offensive line-needy Giants, which explains why many think the Giants will pick him here. The 6'5", 320-pound Scherff is a mauler who can play guard and tackle. He will be an instant upgrade and will help pave the way for New York's stable of running backs.
10. St. Louis Rams: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.
The Rams could try to upgrade their below-average offense, or they could try to beef up their already stingy defense. I'm saying they do the latter, slotting the physical Waynes opposite Janoris Jenkins. Waynes has the size (6'1") and speed (4.31 40) to compete at corner in the NFL, and he went up against tough, talented wide receivers last year.
11. Minnesota Vikings: WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
The Vikings upgraded their receiving corps (ranked 28th last year) by signing Mike Wallace, but they could still use some production on the outside. Who better than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's former college teammate? Parker may not be the most explosive or fastest receiver in this draft class, but he is productive. He had 855 yards and five touchdowns last season despite missing the first seven games.
12. Cleveland Browns: NT Danny Shelton, Washington
As a Browns fan, I would love it if Mariota or one of the top three receivers fell this far. If Mariota is here, the Browns should take him. If Cooper, White, or Parker are here, the Browns should take one of them. I also wouldn't rule out a trade up for Mariota. But in this mock draft, the Browns choose Shelton, who's a popular mock pick to the Browns. He brings much-needed depth to their defensive line.
13. New Orleans Saints: DT Arik Armstead, Oregon
The Saints could pick talented outside linebacker Randy Gregory here, but his failed drug test may turn them away. Instead, they could choose Armstead, who has size (6'8", 290) and explosiveness to improve New Orleans' porous defense.
14. Miami Dolphins: WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
The Dolphins are in the market for another receiver after losing Mike Wallace to free agency. Perriman is a fast riser who some think might be a top ten pick. I don't think he'll crack the top ten, but he has the size (6'3", 214) and catching ability to produce. Also possibilities for the 'Fins are Arizona State receiver Jaelen Strong and talented but troubled receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.
15. San Francisco 49ers: OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Finally, Gregory's free fall ends. He has top 10 (and possibly top 5) talent, but he failed a drug test, which will likely cause him to drop on draft night. The Niners could use some help on their defensive front, and on the field, few have the raw skills that Gregory does.
16. Houston Texans: WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.
The Texans could use some wide receiver help after losing long-time franchise player Andre Johnson, and Strong is a strong (no pun intended) and physical receiver who has shown the ability to catch balls in traffic. The wideout with the highest vertical leap at the combine (42 inches) is a really good possession receiver.
17. San Diego Chargers: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
There have been rumblings about San Diego trading up for Phillip Rivers' successor, but I think they should look to upgrade the talent around Rivers. Gurley, regarded as an elite prospect, would definitely be an upgrade over a pair of running backs (Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver) better suited for third down duty. The only question with Gurley may be health (he tore his ACL last year) and the overall durability of running backs.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Marcus Peters, Washington
The Chiefs really need a wide receiver (their receivers caught a whopping zero touchdown passes last season), but with the top receivers already gone, they could go for a cornerback, which is another pressing need. Although he may have an attitude problem (he was dismissed from the team last season after a confrontation with a coach at practice), he is highly talented and has great coverage skills.
19. Cleveland Browns: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
The Browns could draft Todd Gurley if he's still available here, but if not (or even if he is), they might look to improve their offensive line depth. Peat may be the best offensive lineman in the draft, and he reminds me of last year's second-round pick by the Browns, Joel Bitonio (although maybe that's just me), because of his blend of size (6'7", 316 lbs.) and quickness, and the fact that he's from the west coast (Bitonio went to Nevada).
20. Philadelphia Eagles: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The Eagles, guided by Chip Kelly, are another trendy pick to trade up, but that may all just be noise. If the Eagles stay put, they will probably pick a defensive back, and Collins would be a good choice. He is really good in run support, with his aggressive style of play, which helped Alabama be one of the best defenses in the country.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Malcolm Brown, Texas
Brown could go higher, but in this mock draft, he fits in at 21 to the Bengals. The 6'2", 320-pound Brown is big, versatile, and NFL-ready. He was a first-team All-American at Texas, as well as a finalist for the Bronco Nagurski Trophy (best defensive player in the country). The Bengals would surely love to add him to their strong defensive line.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
The Steelers need help in the secondary, especially after the retirement of Troy Polamalu. They probably won't find Polamalu's replacement here, but they could find a talented corner without the character issues that Marcus Peters has. He would definitely improve their defensive backfield, as he greatly improved during his time at Wake Forest and performed well at the combine.
23. Detroit Lions: DT Eddie Goldman, Florida St.
Goldman has risen up draft boards, and he would be a good fit in Detroit, where they are trying to replace Pro Bowler Ndamakong Suh. Goldman is an athletic, explosive run-stopper who was a third-team All-American last year at Florida State.
24. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
The Cardinals would love it if Alvin "Bud" Dupree fell to them. Dupree is very athletic and explosive (4.56 40), and would fit very well on an Arizona team in need of some more linebackers. He had 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for a loss last season at Kentucky.
25. Carolina Panthers: OT La'el Collins, LSU
The Panthers will more than likely go with an offensive lineman here to help protect Cam Newton. They could go several different ways, with Andrus Peat, Miami tackle Ereck Flowers, and Florida tackle D.J. Humphries all viable options here if they're still available. Collins could very well be the best of the bunch. At 6'5", 321, he is a mean and powerful player who was named best offensive lineman in the SEC last year.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Jalen Collins, LSU
Going with two LSU products named Collins in a row, Jalen Collins would be a good fit for a Baltimore team in need of corners. He is very athletic, bringing a combination of size (6'2", 198 lbs.) and speed (4.48 40). He is a bit raw (started 10 times in four years at LSU), but has immense potential.
27. Dallas Cowboys: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
The Cowboys could go several directions here (defensive line, offensive line, cornerback), but Gordon, a Heisman finalist last year, would be a good pick. Dallas has Darren McFadden on its roster, but he has yet to show he can stay healthy, so the explosive Gordon could add more strength to a position that was highly productive for the 'Boys last season (when they had DeMarco Murray).
28. Denver Broncos: OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
This pick will almost surely be an offensive lineman, as the Broncos look to add protection for Peyton Manning. Flowers has great size (6'6", 324 lbs.) and athleticism, and could be a very strong left tackle in the future. Flowers could conceivably go much higher, before Collins and Peat.
29. Indianapolis Colts: OT D.J. Humphries, Florida
The Colts, like the Broncos, will most likely look for protection for star quarterback Andrew Luck. Going with a second offensive lineman prospect from Florida, Humphries is a highly athletic and aggressive blocker. He has some things to work on, but he would be a great add for the Colts.
30. Green Bay Packers: LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
Kendricks is a smart defender with a brother (Mychal, a linebacker for the Eagles) in the NFL. Eric is a strong tackler (149 last year) who won the Butkus Award (best linebacker in the country) last season at UCLA. The Packers could put him beside Clay Matthews, improving their defense.
31. New Orleans Saints: C Cameron Erving, Florida St.
The Saints, like some teams late in the first round, could take different paths here. They could continue trying to improve their abysmal defense, or they could add a receiver. They could also take an offensive lineman, and that's what I have them doing here. Erving is a fast riser who has the athleticism to succeed on the offensive line.
32. New England Patriots: CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
Yet another player who has risen up draft boards, Jones has the size (6'1", 199 lbs.) and athleticism to be successful in the secondary. Although cornerback Malcolm Butler was the hero in the Super Bowl, the Pats could still use some more talent in the defensive backfield.
Potential Second Round Steals
There are always some diamonds in the rough who fly under the radar or fall down draft boards for numerous reasons, whether it be injury, off-field problems, the result of playing for a small school in college, or just position or team needs. These guys may have first round talent, but for different reasons, may not go until Day 2.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
This 6'6", 225-pound talent is supremely athletic (ran a 4.49-second 40) and skilled (883 yards and 12 touchdowns for Missouri in 2013), but, much like Josh Gordon, another extremely talented wide receiver, can't stay out of trouble. He was dismissed from Missouri in 2014 after being investigated for burglary and assault (he wasn't charged), and on two occasions before that, he was arrested for having/smoking marijuana (he wasn't charged either time). After being dismissed from Missouri, he transferred to Oklahoma but didn't play due to transfer rules.
LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
Thompson might go in the first round, but whether he does or not, the team that drafts him will get a very versatile and athletic player who can impact many areas of the game. He played linebacker and running back in college, and was an 18th round pick by the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 MLB Draft before he gave up baseball (he also ran track and field) to focus on football. He can be put a lot of places, which alone could make him a value in the second round. The question is where he best fits in the NFL (safety or linebacker?).
CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Olomu was a projected first round pick before hurting his knee in preparation for the College Football Playoff. Concerns about the injury and about his height (5'10") may cause him to slide, but he was an All-American last year and a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the best defensive back in the country.
OT T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh
Clemmings could very well go in the first round, ahead of some other lineman. He has lots of potential but little experience on the offensive line, as he moved there from the defensive line two years ago. However, he is very athletic (he was a basketball star in high school), and as he gains more experience, could be a very good offensive tackle.
OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Ogbuehi, like Clemmings, could very possibly go in the first round (as could any of these guys, really). Ogbuehi is very athletic and has lots of potential, also like Clemmings. The major reason Ogbuehi could fall is the torn ACL he suffered in a Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia.
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
Williams is by far the best tight end in this draft class. The question is whether a team will think about taking a tight end in the first round. An explosive, fast tight end, Williams had 569 yards receiving and eight touchdowns last season for the Gophers. He was also a finalist for the Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in the nation. Michigan TE/WR Devin Funchess could also be a second or third round steal for his size (6'5", 230) and ability to play both positions.
LB Paul Dawson, TCU
Dawson had a fabulous 2014 season for the Horned Frogs, amassing 136 tackles and 20 tackles for a loss, and winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He played one year at Trinity College before transferring to TCU. He is quick and athletic, and was obviously very productive last season, but like some other talented players in this draft, there are concerns about his character and maturity. Those concerns, along with a slow 40 time at the combine (4.93), could drop his draft stock.
Risers
Here are some players who have risen up draft boards as the draft approaches
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Gurley draft stock fell after his torn ACL, but has risen back up after he showed he is healthy. He is now projected by some to go in the top ten, which is high for a running back.
WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
There is a lot of buzz around the Central Florida product as the draft nears, as he has shot up draft boards and now looks like a sure first round pick, possibly in the top half of the round.
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
Another receiver who has risen up draft boards, Dorsett is a speedy (4.33 40) slot receiver in the mold of many other successful small receivers in the NFL (5'10", 183). Dorsett could be a first round pick.
WR Nelson Agholor, USC
Yet another receiver who has forced his way into the first round conversation, Agholor is a quick, instinctive pass-catcher who also has good return skills.
CB Eric Rowe, Utah
Rowe is a tall (6'1"), athletic defensive back who performed well at the combine and has shown up in some recent mock drafts in the first round.
Fallers
Here are some players who have slid down draft boards.
DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Many people still have Ray high, and some have him as high as number five, but many others have dropped him down to the 20's due to concern over a foot injury.
OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Gregory, a top-five talent, dropped out of the top five after failing a drug test at the combine (not his first failed drug test). Now he's projected mid-to-late first round, despite the obvious talent.
OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
Peat has the talent to be the first offensive lineman picked, but many have dropped him below other lineman, such as La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers.
LB Denzel Perryman, Miami
It seems Perryman has fallen out of first round consideration due to a slow 40 time (4.78) and a hamstring injury he suffered at his Pro Day.
CB P.J. Williams, Florida St.
Williams, who might have first round talent, hasn't done himself any favors with a less-than-stellar 40 time (4.57) and a DUI arrest earlier this month.
(Stats and information from NFL.com)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.
I don't believe Jameis Winston is the best player in the draft (or quarterback, for that matter), and I'm not sure he will succeed in the NFL (he needs to mature first). However, he is viewed by the majority as the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, basically every draft analyst has him as the first overall pick, and the Bucs are a QB-needy team who can't pass up the opportunity to get a quarterback who can step in and play right away. He does bring arm strength, good intelligence and ability to read on the field (although his off-field intelligence may be lacking), and good size (6'4", 230 lbs.).
2. Tennessee Titans: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
I think this will come down to Mariota and defensive end Leonard Williams, widely regarded as the best prospect in the draft (or they will trade down). The Titans have a need at both positions, but after the early retirement of Jake Locker and the doubt in Zack Mettenberger as a long-term solution, I can't see the Titans passing up on a quarterback with prototypical size (6'4", 219 lbs.), athleticism, college success (won the Heisman this past year), and high character, even if it means passing on a 6'5", 300-pound defensive end.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Leonard Williams, USC
The Jaguars would surely be delighted if Williams fell to them. He would strengthen the Jags' already strong defensive front (T-6th in sacks last year). Williams brings the rare combination of size (as I said before, 6'5", 300 lbs.), speed (4.53-second 40), and past production (First-Team All-Pac-12 last year). There is no way Williams will fall out of the top three.
4. Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
The Raiders will most likely choose Cooper or West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White here (unless they trade the pick), since receiver is their biggest need. Both Cooper and White are supremely talented wide receivers who will come in and instantly make an impact, improving an Oakland offense that is quarterbacked by impressive sophomore Derek Carr. I'll say Cooper, who is rated by most as the best receiver in the draft and was the most dangerous receiver in college football last year.
5. Washington Redskins: OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
The Redskins could trade out of this pick, either with a team desperate for a wide receiver (either Amari Cooper or Kevin White will most likely still be on the board here) or a team desperate for a quarterback (if the Titans don't pick Mariota, a team may trade up for him). If they don't, Vic Beasley is a very good option. He's a talented outside linebacker from Clemson who was the best OLB at the combine, and he would add great depth to the Washington corps.
6. New York Jets: WR Kevin White, West Virginia
The Jets would love it if Winston or Mariota fell this far, but if they don't, the next best option would probably be one of the top two receivers in the draft. Others might have them choosing Shane Ray or some other defensive lineman or linebacker here, but White would help solidify the Jets receiving corps alongside Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. White was a playmaker at West Virginia, and he ran one of the fastest 40-yard dashes at the combine (4.35 seconds).
7. Chicago Bears: OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Fowler could possibly go as high as number three, but in this mock, the Bears snatch him up at eight. He is an athletic and explosive edge rusher who had 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for a loss last season at Florida. He will immediately upgrade the Chicago defense and fill a need.
8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Ray is a good fit for Atlanta. They need pass-rushers, and Ray is a ferocious pass-rusher. He is very explosive and can get to the quarterback. He is a disruptive force who won SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season with 14.5 sacks.
9. New York Giants: OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa
This is a good fit for the offensive line-needy Giants, which explains why many think the Giants will pick him here. The 6'5", 320-pound Scherff is a mauler who can play guard and tackle. He will be an instant upgrade and will help pave the way for New York's stable of running backs.
10. St. Louis Rams: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.
The Rams could try to upgrade their below-average offense, or they could try to beef up their already stingy defense. I'm saying they do the latter, slotting the physical Waynes opposite Janoris Jenkins. Waynes has the size (6'1") and speed (4.31 40) to compete at corner in the NFL, and he went up against tough, talented wide receivers last year.
11. Minnesota Vikings: WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
The Vikings upgraded their receiving corps (ranked 28th last year) by signing Mike Wallace, but they could still use some production on the outside. Who better than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's former college teammate? Parker may not be the most explosive or fastest receiver in this draft class, but he is productive. He had 855 yards and five touchdowns last season despite missing the first seven games.
12. Cleveland Browns: NT Danny Shelton, Washington
As a Browns fan, I would love it if Mariota or one of the top three receivers fell this far. If Mariota is here, the Browns should take him. If Cooper, White, or Parker are here, the Browns should take one of them. I also wouldn't rule out a trade up for Mariota. But in this mock draft, the Browns choose Shelton, who's a popular mock pick to the Browns. He brings much-needed depth to their defensive line.
13. New Orleans Saints: DT Arik Armstead, Oregon
The Saints could pick talented outside linebacker Randy Gregory here, but his failed drug test may turn them away. Instead, they could choose Armstead, who has size (6'8", 290) and explosiveness to improve New Orleans' porous defense.
14. Miami Dolphins: WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
The Dolphins are in the market for another receiver after losing Mike Wallace to free agency. Perriman is a fast riser who some think might be a top ten pick. I don't think he'll crack the top ten, but he has the size (6'3", 214) and catching ability to produce. Also possibilities for the 'Fins are Arizona State receiver Jaelen Strong and talented but troubled receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.
15. San Francisco 49ers: OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Finally, Gregory's free fall ends. He has top 10 (and possibly top 5) talent, but he failed a drug test, which will likely cause him to drop on draft night. The Niners could use some help on their defensive front, and on the field, few have the raw skills that Gregory does.
16. Houston Texans: WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.
The Texans could use some wide receiver help after losing long-time franchise player Andre Johnson, and Strong is a strong (no pun intended) and physical receiver who has shown the ability to catch balls in traffic. The wideout with the highest vertical leap at the combine (42 inches) is a really good possession receiver.
17. San Diego Chargers: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
There have been rumblings about San Diego trading up for Phillip Rivers' successor, but I think they should look to upgrade the talent around Rivers. Gurley, regarded as an elite prospect, would definitely be an upgrade over a pair of running backs (Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver) better suited for third down duty. The only question with Gurley may be health (he tore his ACL last year) and the overall durability of running backs.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Marcus Peters, Washington
The Chiefs really need a wide receiver (their receivers caught a whopping zero touchdown passes last season), but with the top receivers already gone, they could go for a cornerback, which is another pressing need. Although he may have an attitude problem (he was dismissed from the team last season after a confrontation with a coach at practice), he is highly talented and has great coverage skills.
19. Cleveland Browns: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
The Browns could draft Todd Gurley if he's still available here, but if not (or even if he is), they might look to improve their offensive line depth. Peat may be the best offensive lineman in the draft, and he reminds me of last year's second-round pick by the Browns, Joel Bitonio (although maybe that's just me), because of his blend of size (6'7", 316 lbs.) and quickness, and the fact that he's from the west coast (Bitonio went to Nevada).
20. Philadelphia Eagles: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The Eagles, guided by Chip Kelly, are another trendy pick to trade up, but that may all just be noise. If the Eagles stay put, they will probably pick a defensive back, and Collins would be a good choice. He is really good in run support, with his aggressive style of play, which helped Alabama be one of the best defenses in the country.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Malcolm Brown, Texas
Brown could go higher, but in this mock draft, he fits in at 21 to the Bengals. The 6'2", 320-pound Brown is big, versatile, and NFL-ready. He was a first-team All-American at Texas, as well as a finalist for the Bronco Nagurski Trophy (best defensive player in the country). The Bengals would surely love to add him to their strong defensive line.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
The Steelers need help in the secondary, especially after the retirement of Troy Polamalu. They probably won't find Polamalu's replacement here, but they could find a talented corner without the character issues that Marcus Peters has. He would definitely improve their defensive backfield, as he greatly improved during his time at Wake Forest and performed well at the combine.
23. Detroit Lions: DT Eddie Goldman, Florida St.
Goldman has risen up draft boards, and he would be a good fit in Detroit, where they are trying to replace Pro Bowler Ndamakong Suh. Goldman is an athletic, explosive run-stopper who was a third-team All-American last year at Florida State.
24. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
The Cardinals would love it if Alvin "Bud" Dupree fell to them. Dupree is very athletic and explosive (4.56 40), and would fit very well on an Arizona team in need of some more linebackers. He had 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for a loss last season at Kentucky.
25. Carolina Panthers: OT La'el Collins, LSU
The Panthers will more than likely go with an offensive lineman here to help protect Cam Newton. They could go several different ways, with Andrus Peat, Miami tackle Ereck Flowers, and Florida tackle D.J. Humphries all viable options here if they're still available. Collins could very well be the best of the bunch. At 6'5", 321, he is a mean and powerful player who was named best offensive lineman in the SEC last year.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Jalen Collins, LSU
Going with two LSU products named Collins in a row, Jalen Collins would be a good fit for a Baltimore team in need of corners. He is very athletic, bringing a combination of size (6'2", 198 lbs.) and speed (4.48 40). He is a bit raw (started 10 times in four years at LSU), but has immense potential.
27. Dallas Cowboys: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
The Cowboys could go several directions here (defensive line, offensive line, cornerback), but Gordon, a Heisman finalist last year, would be a good pick. Dallas has Darren McFadden on its roster, but he has yet to show he can stay healthy, so the explosive Gordon could add more strength to a position that was highly productive for the 'Boys last season (when they had DeMarco Murray).
28. Denver Broncos: OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
This pick will almost surely be an offensive lineman, as the Broncos look to add protection for Peyton Manning. Flowers has great size (6'6", 324 lbs.) and athleticism, and could be a very strong left tackle in the future. Flowers could conceivably go much higher, before Collins and Peat.
29. Indianapolis Colts: OT D.J. Humphries, Florida
The Colts, like the Broncos, will most likely look for protection for star quarterback Andrew Luck. Going with a second offensive lineman prospect from Florida, Humphries is a highly athletic and aggressive blocker. He has some things to work on, but he would be a great add for the Colts.
30. Green Bay Packers: LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
Kendricks is a smart defender with a brother (Mychal, a linebacker for the Eagles) in the NFL. Eric is a strong tackler (149 last year) who won the Butkus Award (best linebacker in the country) last season at UCLA. The Packers could put him beside Clay Matthews, improving their defense.
31. New Orleans Saints: C Cameron Erving, Florida St.
The Saints, like some teams late in the first round, could take different paths here. They could continue trying to improve their abysmal defense, or they could add a receiver. They could also take an offensive lineman, and that's what I have them doing here. Erving is a fast riser who has the athleticism to succeed on the offensive line.
32. New England Patriots: CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
Yet another player who has risen up draft boards, Jones has the size (6'1", 199 lbs.) and athleticism to be successful in the secondary. Although cornerback Malcolm Butler was the hero in the Super Bowl, the Pats could still use some more talent in the defensive backfield.
Potential Second Round Steals
There are always some diamonds in the rough who fly under the radar or fall down draft boards for numerous reasons, whether it be injury, off-field problems, the result of playing for a small school in college, or just position or team needs. These guys may have first round talent, but for different reasons, may not go until Day 2.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
This 6'6", 225-pound talent is supremely athletic (ran a 4.49-second 40) and skilled (883 yards and 12 touchdowns for Missouri in 2013), but, much like Josh Gordon, another extremely talented wide receiver, can't stay out of trouble. He was dismissed from Missouri in 2014 after being investigated for burglary and assault (he wasn't charged), and on two occasions before that, he was arrested for having/smoking marijuana (he wasn't charged either time). After being dismissed from Missouri, he transferred to Oklahoma but didn't play due to transfer rules.
LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
Thompson might go in the first round, but whether he does or not, the team that drafts him will get a very versatile and athletic player who can impact many areas of the game. He played linebacker and running back in college, and was an 18th round pick by the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 MLB Draft before he gave up baseball (he also ran track and field) to focus on football. He can be put a lot of places, which alone could make him a value in the second round. The question is where he best fits in the NFL (safety or linebacker?).
CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Olomu was a projected first round pick before hurting his knee in preparation for the College Football Playoff. Concerns about the injury and about his height (5'10") may cause him to slide, but he was an All-American last year and a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the best defensive back in the country.
OT T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh
Clemmings could very well go in the first round, ahead of some other lineman. He has lots of potential but little experience on the offensive line, as he moved there from the defensive line two years ago. However, he is very athletic (he was a basketball star in high school), and as he gains more experience, could be a very good offensive tackle.
OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Ogbuehi, like Clemmings, could very possibly go in the first round (as could any of these guys, really). Ogbuehi is very athletic and has lots of potential, also like Clemmings. The major reason Ogbuehi could fall is the torn ACL he suffered in a Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia.
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
Williams is by far the best tight end in this draft class. The question is whether a team will think about taking a tight end in the first round. An explosive, fast tight end, Williams had 569 yards receiving and eight touchdowns last season for the Gophers. He was also a finalist for the Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in the nation. Michigan TE/WR Devin Funchess could also be a second or third round steal for his size (6'5", 230) and ability to play both positions.
LB Paul Dawson, TCU
Dawson had a fabulous 2014 season for the Horned Frogs, amassing 136 tackles and 20 tackles for a loss, and winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He played one year at Trinity College before transferring to TCU. He is quick and athletic, and was obviously very productive last season, but like some other talented players in this draft, there are concerns about his character and maturity. Those concerns, along with a slow 40 time at the combine (4.93), could drop his draft stock.
Risers
Here are some players who have risen up draft boards as the draft approaches
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Gurley draft stock fell after his torn ACL, but has risen back up after he showed he is healthy. He is now projected by some to go in the top ten, which is high for a running back.
WR Breshad Perriman, UCF
There is a lot of buzz around the Central Florida product as the draft nears, as he has shot up draft boards and now looks like a sure first round pick, possibly in the top half of the round.
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
Another receiver who has risen up draft boards, Dorsett is a speedy (4.33 40) slot receiver in the mold of many other successful small receivers in the NFL (5'10", 183). Dorsett could be a first round pick.
WR Nelson Agholor, USC
Yet another receiver who has forced his way into the first round conversation, Agholor is a quick, instinctive pass-catcher who also has good return skills.
CB Eric Rowe, Utah
Rowe is a tall (6'1"), athletic defensive back who performed well at the combine and has shown up in some recent mock drafts in the first round.
Fallers
Here are some players who have slid down draft boards.
DE Shane Ray, Missouri
Many people still have Ray high, and some have him as high as number five, but many others have dropped him down to the 20's due to concern over a foot injury.
OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Gregory, a top-five talent, dropped out of the top five after failing a drug test at the combine (not his first failed drug test). Now he's projected mid-to-late first round, despite the obvious talent.
OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
Peat has the talent to be the first offensive lineman picked, but many have dropped him below other lineman, such as La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers.
LB Denzel Perryman, Miami
It seems Perryman has fallen out of first round consideration due to a slow 40 time (4.78) and a hamstring injury he suffered at his Pro Day.
CB P.J. Williams, Florida St.
Williams, who might have first round talent, hasn't done himself any favors with a less-than-stellar 40 time (4.57) and a DUI arrest earlier this month.
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