Friday, December 19, 2014

G-Rex's 2014-15 College Football Bowl Preview Extravaganza: Part I

Welcome to G-Rex's first annual College Football Bowl Preview Extravaganza! Did I put the "Extravaganza" part in there just to get your attention? Maybe (plus it sounds cool). This bowl preview is so extravagant that I had to break it into parts, starting with the pre-Christmas bowl games. Did I break it into parts because I didn't get all of the bowls done in time? Maybe. This bowl preview will supply you with plenty of info about each team (which I gathered from ESPN.com and CBSSports.com), including record, performance against good teams, rankings, impact players, and of course, my "expert" prediction. I've also given a link to each bowl's web site embedded in the name of the bowl. And if you want to know what kinds of gifts the teams' players and staff get from each bowl game, Sports Business Daily has you covered. I hope you enjoy this bowl preview, and last but not least, Happy Holidays from Grantosaurus Rex!

R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, LA, Dec. 20, 11:00 AM, ESPN)
Nevada Wolfpack (7-5, 4-4 Mountain West, 3rd MWC West) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4, 7-1 Sun Belt, 2nd Sun Belt)
Season Results (the "vs. Top 25" is vs. teams currently in the Top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings):
Nevada                                                                                   
vs. Top 25: 0-2                                                                       
vs. Bowl Teams: 2-5                                                              
Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Top 25: 0-2
vs. Bowl Teams: 2-3
Rankings:  
Nevada                                                                                   
Passing: 94th (197.8 yards/game)                                          
Rushing: 32nd (215.2 yards/game)                                       
Pass Defense: 115th (271 yards/game)                                
Rush Defense: 81st (179.1 yards/game)                              
Louisiana-Lafayette
Passing: 102nd (188.9 yards/game) 
Rushing: 26th (228.4 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 120th (275.3 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 44th (146.7 yards/game)
Summary: The Ragin' Cajuns will be looking for their fourth straight victory in the New Orleans Bowl. UL-Lafayette has a strong run game powered by senior quarterback and 2012 New Orleans Bowl MVP Terrance Broadway (634 yards, 3 TD) and the running back combo of sophomore Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD) and senior Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD). The Wolfpack also run the ball well, led by senior quarterback Cody Fajardo (997 yards, 13 TD), as well as junior running back Don Jackson (932 yards rushing, 7 TD) and freshman running back James Butler (620 yards, 5 TD). Broadway (2,073 yards passing, 12 TD, 9 INT) and Fajardo (2,374 yards passing, 18 TD, 11 INT) are two of the best dual-threats in the country. Fajardo is one of only two quarterbacks in FBS history to throw for over 9,000 yards and run for over 3,00 yards in a career (the other is former Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick).
Prediction: Nevada 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 35

Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM, Dec. 20, 2:20 PM, ESPN)
Utah State Aggies (9-4, 6-2 Mountain West, Mountain West Runner-Up) vs. UTEP Miners (7-5, 5-3 C-USA, T-2nd C-USA West)
Season Results:
Utah State                                                                                   
vs. Top 25: 0-1                                                                                                                             vs. Bowl Teams: 3-4  
UTEP  
vs. Top 25: 0-1
vs. Bowl Teams: 0-4                                                                          
Rankings:
Utah State                                                                                    
Passing: 84th (208.8 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 56th (172.5 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 76th (233.1 yards/game)                                
Rush Defense: 26th (129.2 yards/game)                               
UTEP
Passing: 120th (144.3 yards/game)
Rushing: 34th (212.7 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 34th (202 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 70th (168.3 yards/game)
Summary: Utah State has overcome the loss of three quarterbacks to injury (and nine starters overall), partly thanks to a dominant defense led by senior linebacker and MWC Defensive Player of the Year Zack Vigil (145 tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss, 9 sacks). Vigil is one tackle for a loss away from breaking the MWC single-season record he set last year. UTEP's quarterback is the guy who lost the Texas A&M job to Johnny Manziel, Jameill Showers. He's played well for the Miners, throwing for 1,732 yards and 12 touchdowns with five interceptions (he's also run for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns. This is the Miners' first bowl appearance since 2010 and they will be looking for their first bowl win since 1967.
Prediction: Utah State 32, UTEP 13

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV, Dec. 20, 3:30 PM, ABC)  
#22 Utah Utes (8-4, 5-4 PAC-12, 5th PAC-12 South) vs. Colorado State Rams (10-2, 6-2 Mountain West, 2nd MWC Mountain)
Results:
Utah                                                                                                                                                       vs. Top 25: 2-3                                                                       
vs. Bowl Teams: 4-3                                                              
Colorado State
vs. Top 25: 0-1
vs. Bowl Teams: 3-2
Rankings:
Utah                                                                                             
Passing: 91st (198.4 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 54th (176.3 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 84th (245 yards/game)                                   
Rush Defense: 56th (158.1 yards/game)                               
Colorado State
Passing: 8th (326.3 yards/game)
Rushing: 57th (171.6 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 62nd (227.2 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 86th (187.6 yards/game)
Summary: Colorado State had a great season under head coach Jim McElwain, who won't be coaching in this game after leaving for the head coaching job at Florida. The Rams do, however, still have senior quarterback Garrett Grayson (3,779 yards passing, 32 TD, 6 INT) and sophomore wide receiver and Biletnikoff Award (given to the nation's best receiver) finalist Rashard Higgins (1,640 yards receiving, 17 TD). They, along with McElwain, are major reasons CSU has the eighth-best passing offense in the country. Utah has had a few nail-biters in a season that saw them compete with some of the PAC-12's elites. The Utes have talented players all over the field, including junior running back Devontae Booker (1,350 yards rushing, 9 TD), senior defensive end Nate Orchard (80 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 17.5 sacks; won the Ted Hendricks Award as the nation's best defensive end), and wide receiver/return man Kaelin Clay (460 yards receiving, 4 TD; 3 punt return TD, 1 kick return TD; should have another touchdown). 
Prediction: Utah 37, Colorado State 35

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise, ID, Dec. 20, 5:45 PM, ESPN)
Western Michigan Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MAC, 3rd MAC West) vs. Air Force Falcons (9-3, 5-3 Mountain West, 4th MWC Mountain)
Season Results:
Western Michigan                                                                                                                          vs. Top 25: 0-0                                                                        
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-3                                                               
Air Force
vs. Top 25: 1-0
vs. Bowl Teams: 4-2
Rankings:
Western Michigan                                                                       
Passing: 37th (264.8 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 53rd (178.5 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 65th (229.3 yards/game)                                
Rush Defense: 37th (142.7 yards/game)                               
Air Force
Passing: 114th (151.3 yards/game)
Rushing: 8th (272.2 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 94th (256 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 35th (140.3 yards/game)
Summary: Both of these teams had big turnaround seasons after disappointing seasons last year. The Broncos are 8-4 after finishing 1-11 last year, and the Falcons are 9-3 after finishing 2-10 last year. Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck has done a great job turning the team around, with help from sophomore quarterback Zach Terrell, who's thrown for 3,146 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while completing 70 percent of his passes, and freshman running back and MAC Offensive Player of the Year Jarvion Franklin (1,525 yards rushing, 24 TD). Western Michigan has never won a bowl game. They are 0-5 all-time. Air Force, as always, is among the best running teams in the country with their triple-option offense, which has featured multiple players (nine players scored at least one rushing touchdown), including senior quarterback Kale Pearson (646 yards rushing, 6 TD; 1,513 yards passing, 14 TD, 3 INT). 
Prediction: Air Force 34, Western Michigan 28

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL, Dec. 20, 9:15 PM, ESPN)
South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt, 4th Sun Belt) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (7-6, 5-3 MAC, MAC Runner-Up)
Season Results:
South Alabama                                                                                                                               vs. Top 25: 0-1                                                                      
vs. Bowl Teams: 0-5                                                             
Bowling Green
vs. Top 25: 0-1
vs. Bowl Teams: 0-5
Rankings:
South Alabama                                                                          
Passing: 96th (190.2 yards/game)                                          
Rushing: 48th (182.6 yards/game)                                       
Pass Defense: 31st (199.8 yards/game)                              
Rush Defense: 87th (190.7 yards/game)                             
Bowling Green
Passing: 45th (251.5 yards/game)
Rushing: 55th (176.2 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 119th (292.4 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 100th (207.2 yards/game)
Summary: The Jaguars of South Alabama are appearing in their first bowl game in their third year as an FBS program (and second year playoff-eligible). They are led by 6'6" Canadian senior quarterback Brandon Bridge (1,648 yards passing, 14 TD, 6 INT; 256 yards rushing, 3 TD), who has the size and athleticism, but needs to work on his accuracy (51.9 completion percentage). The Bowling Green Falcons and rookie coach Dino Babers have impressive freshman wide receiver Roger Lewis (956 yards receiving, 5 TD). Both of these teams barely got in at 6-6 and 7-6, respectively.
Predictions: South Alabama 28, Bowling Green 24

Miami Beach Bowl (Miami, FL, Dec. 22, 2:00 PM, ESPN)
BYU Cougars (8-4) vs. Memphis Tigers (9-3, 7-1 American, T-1st AAC)
Season Results:
BYU                                                                                                                                                  vs. Top 25: 0-1                                                                        
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-4                                                               
Memphis
vs. Top 25: 0-2
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-3
Rankings:
BYU                                                                                          
Passing: 33rd (272.9 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 42nd (190.5 yards/game)                                        
Pass Defense: 105th (266.7 yards/game)                              
Rush Defense: 14th (117.6 yards/game)                               
Memphis
Passing: 62nd (230.8 yards/game)
Rushing: 41st (191.8 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 46th (218 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 24th (125.3 yards/game)
Summary: BYU was a threat to go undefeated before losing star quarterback Taysom Hill in a loss to Utah State early in the season. They lost four in a row, but then rebounded to win four in a row to end the season. The Cougars have a good receiving corps, led by junior Mitch Matthews (840 yards receiving, 8 TD), that has helped out senior quarterback Christian Stewart (2,273 yards passing, 22 TD, 6 INT) in Hill's absence. Memphis was a surprise this year in winning a share of the American Athletic Conference title. The Tigers are led by sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch (2,725 yards passing, 18 TD, 6 INT; 283 yards rushing, 10 TD), who set an AAC for most total touchdowns in a season (28). 
Prediction: Memphis 32, BYU 24

Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, FL, Dec. 23, 6 PM, ESPN)
Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1, 7-1 C-USA, C-USA Champion) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC, MAC Champion)
Season Results:
Marshall                                                                                                                                        vs. Top 25: 0-0                                                                         
vs. Bowl Teams: 2-1                                                                
Northern Illinois
vs. Top 25: 0-0
vs. Bowl Teams: 3-2
Rankings:
Marshall                                                                                   
Passing: 7th (275.6 yards/game)                                              
Rushing: 18th (287.8 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 23rd (194.7 yards/game)                                
Rush Defense: 53rd (157.2 yards/game)                               
Northern Illinois
Passing: 97th (189.5 yards/game)
Rushing: 14th (252.9 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 57th (224.5 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 58th (158.5 yards/game)
Summary: Marshall, who almost went unbeaten (they lost to Western Kentucky 67-66 in overtime), has one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Rakeem Cato (3,622 yards passing, 37 TD, 13 INT), who has thrown a touchdown pass in 45 straight games (an FBS record). Northern Illinois won another MAC championship with big seasons from many players, including senior wide receiver Da'Ron Brown (1,002 yards receiving, 6 TD). This is a matchup of the best teams in the Group of 5 conferences (conferences besides the AAC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, and SEC).
Prediction: Marshall 42, Northern Illinois 27

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, CA, Dec. 23, 9:30 PM, ESPN)
Navy Midshipmen (7-5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5, 5-3 Mountain West, T-1st MWC West)
Season Results:
Navy                                                                                                                                                   vs. Top 25: 0-1                                                                       
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-5                                                              
San Diego State
vs. Top 25: 0-1
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-4
Rankings:
Navy                                                                                        
Passing: 123rd (87.6 yards/game)                                           
Rushing: 2nd (357.8 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 61st (226.4 yards/game)                               
Rush Defense: 94th (199.8 yards/game)                              
San Diego State
Passing: 102nd (181.5 yards/game)
Rushing: 30th (218.6 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 19th (192 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 42nd (145.6 yards/game)
Summary: Navy's triple-option offense was as lethal as ever this season, led by junior quarterback Keenan Reynolds, the nation's leading rusher among quarterbacks (1,182 yards rushing, 21 TD). San Diego State also has a dangerous running game with sophomore running back Donnel Pumphrey, who ranks third in the nation in rushing with 1,755 yards, along with 19 touchdowns. Both of these teams are very popular in San Diego (San Diego State is located there, and there is a large naval base in San Diego). 
Prediction: Navy 32, San Diego State 27

Popeye's Bahamas Bowl (Nassau, Dec. 24, 12:00 PM, ESPN)
Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5, 6-2 MAC, 3rd MAC West) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA, 3rd C-USA East)
Season Results:
Central Michigan                                                                                                                            vs. Top 25: 0-1                                                                       
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-2                                                              
Western Kentucky
vs. Top 25: 0-0
vs. Bowl Teams: 4-1
Rankings:
Central Michigan                                                                   
Passing: 70th (220 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 69th (158.7 yards/game)                                       
Pass Defense: 40th (211.4 yards/game)                              
Rush Defense: 19th (119.8 yards/game)                             
Western Kentucky
Passing: 3rd (365 yards/game) 
Rushing: 68th (160.3 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 110th (272.2 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 112th (229.7 yards/game)
Summary: Central Michigan is clearly happy to be here. Who wouldn't want to spend Christmas Eve in the Bahamas? The Chippewas face a familiar foe, one they beat in the 2012 Little Caeser's Bowl. The player to watch for Western Michigan is senior running back and Michigan transfer Thomas Rawls (1,103 yards rushing, 10 TD).  Western Kentucky has one of the most prolific passing offenses in the country, led by the nation's leading passer, Brandon Doughty (4,344 yards passing, 44 TD, 10 INT).
Prediction: Western Kentucky 52, Central Michigan 32

Hawai'i Bowl (Honolulu, HI, Dec. 24, 8:00 PM, ESPN)
Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7, 5-3 Mountain West, MWC Runner-Up) vs. Rice Owls (7-5, 5-3 Conference USA, 2nd C-USA West)
Season Results:
Fresno State                                                                                                                                   vs. Top 25: 0-4                                                                         
vs. Bowl Teams: 2-5                                                                
Rice Owls
vs. Top 25: 0-1
vs. Bowl Teams: 1-4
Rankings:
Fresno State                                                                             
Passing: 57th (233.8 yards/game)                                            
Rushing: 45th (183.9 yards/game)                                         
Pass Defense: 88th (248.9 yards/game)                                
Rush Defense: 101st (207.3 yards/game)                             
Rice Owls
Passing: 69th (223.6 yards/game)
Rushing: 58th (170.3 yards/game)
Pass Defense: 85th (245.1 yards/game)
Rush Defense: 47th (151.8 yards/game)
Summary: Fresno State is the only bowl team with a losing record (they lost the Mountain West championship game to Boise State). The Bulldogs got another 1,000 yard season from senior wide receiver Josh Harper (1,072 yards receiving, 7 TD). Rice is led on offense by senior wide receiver Jordan Taylor (781 yards receiving, 6 TD) and on defense by junior defensive end Brian Nordstrom (44 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks).  
Prediction: Rice 38, Fresno State 31 

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Week 6 Picks: A Season of Change

Before I start the Week 6 preview, I would just like to apologize for not doing a preview again last week. I'm a busy person, and sometimes I just don't get it done. I hope it won't happen again, and I am trying to start the posts earlier in the week. I will also be retiring "Bold Prediction" for the time being at the expense of adding a new section where I give reasons each team will win. It gives fans of every team reasons for optimism, even if I pick against them.  I owe it to the loyal few readers I have to consistently give them the product I promised them every week.

It's a season of change. Not just in the weather and leaves, but in the NFL as well. Through five weeks, there has been a coaching change (Oakland), multiple starting quarterback changes due to injury or poor play (Oakland, Jets, Minnesota, Arizona, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), and even more starting running back changes (Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland, Miami, Minnesota, Green Bay, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Giants starting this week). But like the changing of seasons, while people do dread the change and don't want it to happen, there are many good things about it. In the case of position changes, it gives rookies or career backups chances to show what they can do, and some take the opportunity and run with it (no pun intended).

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) @ Houston Texans (3-2)-Thurs. 8:25, CBS/NFL Network
Matchup To Watch: Colts QB Andrew Luck vs. Texans Pass Rush
Andrew Luck has continued to show Colts fans why they shouldn't miss Peyton Manning one bit. Over his last three games, Luck has completed 71.3% of his passes while throwing for nine touchdowns and three interceptions. The always dangerous Texan pass rush, led by superhuman J.J. Watt, was outplayed by Tony Romo last week. Romo threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns, including one where he spun and evaded Watt.
Winner: Luck (25-44, 370 yards, 3 TD, INT)
Start 'em: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton
Hilton has been well-targeted in every game this season, including last week, when he caught nine passes for 90 yards. The Texans aren't great against opposing wide receivers, and Luck will continue to look for Hilton as his second option behind Reggie Wayne.
Stats: 9 catches, 223 yards,
Sit 'em:  Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has had a breakout season so far, but he didn't find the endzone last week, catching six passes for 63 yards, and the Colts are pretty stingy so far this season against the pass. Plus, with the below-average Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and Arian Foster and the run game flourishing, Hopkins might not see a big game this week.
Stats: 1 catch, 12 yards
Pick 'em up: 

Why The Colts Will Win:
Andrew Luck is enough reason why they will win. He shines in the spotlight as well (2-0 in Thursday night games). The Colts are really clicking offensively right now. They lead the league in passing offense and are going up against the 11th-worst pass defense. They are also on a three game winning streak. In fact, their only two losses were by seven to the 3-1 Broncos and by three to the 4-1 Eagles. This is a very good team.
Why The Texans Will Win:
The Texans are 2-0 at home this year, while going 1-2 on the road. They almost beat the surging Cowboys last week, but lost in overtime. Arian Foster is running as well as ever. In the three games he's been healthy and gotten the majority of the workload this year, he's totaled 103, 138, and 157 rushing yards. He's also running against the NFL's seventh-worst rush defense.
Pick: Colts 27, Texans 20
Result: Colts 33, Texans 28 (Correct)

 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Browns RB Ben Tate
Le'Veon Bell ran all over the Browns in Pittsburgh's Week 1 win over Cleveland. He had 21 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown. He has continued to run well. Ben Tate was running well before he got injured early in the Week 1 contest. His backups played well in his absence, but he came back last week and showed why he's Cleveland's starter, running for 123 yards on 22 carries in a comeback win over the Titans.
Start 'em: Browns RB Ben Tate
Tate shined in his first game back from injury last week, and he was running well against the Steelers last time before he was injured. He and his backups racked up 173 yards in their first game against Pittsburgh. Now that he's clearly the lead back again, he'll get lots of chances to have another productive day.
Sit 'em: Any Receiver Other Than Antonio Brown
Brown should be started in all leagues, especially in this favorable matchup. But beyond that, there aren't many great fantasy receiving options in this game. Markus Wheaton only had one catch last week and has yet to find the endzone. On the other sideline, Brian Hoyer likes to spread the ball around, which isn't good for Cleveland's already dire fantasy receiver situation. Travis Benjamin's fantasy production has been tied to touchdowns, and after catching seven, six, and eight passes the first three games, Andrew Hawkins only had three catches last week (although he's still being targeted often, and is a good player to pick up in PPR leagues).
Pick 'em up: Browns QB Brian Hoyer (Owned in 3.7% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues)
Hoyer is better in real life than in fantasy, but he has also played solidly in fantasy this year, rising into the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks. He doesn't have a ton of upside or talented receivers, but he is solid and has produced with what he has. He's a decent start in two-quarterback leagues and for those looking for a bye week replacement.
Why The Steelers Will Win: 
The Steelers beat the Browns in Week 1, and Ben Roethlisberger has only lost once to Cleveland. They're in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense, and they're facing a struggling defense (31st in the NFL in total defense) without corner Joe Haden and defensive tackle Phil Taylor.
Why The Browns Will Win:
The Browns came back and almost beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 1. This week they're at home. They have been within three points in all four games they've played. Brian Hoyer, Ben Tate, and the rest of the offense are playing well and have the ability to comeback from big deficits.
Pick: Browns 30, Steelers 27

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Jaguars QB Blake Bortles vs. Titans QB Charlie Whitehurst
Both of these quarterbacks were not expected to play this year. Whitehurst is a journeyman who was supposed to serve as Jake Locker's backup. Blake Bortles is a rookie who was going to redshirt for a season after being drafted third overall. Things changed. Locker is questionable with a thumb injury after leaving last week's loss to the Browns in which they blew a 25-point lead. Starter Chad Henne was so bad for the Jaguars that they went to Bortles earlier than planned (halftime against the Colts). Whitehurst is what he is (so far this season he has thrown for 371 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick), Bortles has shown some promise (even though he's thrown six interceptions, he's also thrown for 668 yards and three touchdowns and has a 67% completion rate).
Start 'em: Titans WR Kendall Wright
Wright, who always sees targets even with the questionability at quarterback, had a big game last week against Cleveland, catching six passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. He's a very good start in PPR leagues because of the amount of targets, and he's facing a Jaguars defense that gives up 309 passing yards per game.
Sit 'em: Titans RB Bishop Sankey
It's not that the rookie Sankey hasn't played well in the opportunities he's gotten, it's just that he hasn't gotten many opportunities. He only has one game with double-digit carries, and Shonn Greene is still the lead back. Even against a porous Jaguars defense, Sankey is not a player to start.
Pick 'em up: Titans D/ST (13.9%)
For those streaming defenses, whoever is playing the lowly Jaguars is always a good option. Jacksonville averages 272 total yards and 13.4 points a game. The Titans don't have a great defense, but they aren't bad either.
Why The Jaguars Will Win:
Blake Bortles has shown flashes of good play and is a huge upgrade over Chad Henne. They stuck with Pittsburgh for the most part in a 9-17 loss to the Steelers last week. They might be getting rookie wide receiver Marqise Lee back after a three-game absence and might be facing a journeyman backup quarterback.
Why The Titans Will Win:
They are playing the Jaguars, the worst team in the NFL. They were up big on Cleveland last week before blowing the lead. The Jags don't have the talent to come back from a big deficit. They have superior athletes to the Jaguars, including tight end Delanie Walker and receiver Kendall Wright.
Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 12 

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Buccaneers Passing Attack vs. Ravens Secondary
Mike Glennon and his big receivers might have a big day against Baltimore's banged-up secondary. Tampa may have rookie receiver Mike Evans back after he missed last week with a groin injury, and Baltimore's 27th ranked pass defense will be without corner Asa Jackson, who was put on IR with a toe injury. The Bucs don't have a very good passing attack, but they have tall and athletic receivers and a quarterback who almost led them to comeback wins in back-to-back weeks.
Start 'em: Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson
V-Jax had eight catches for 144 yards last week, and seems to be getting back into the groove with Mike Glennon at quarterback after Jackson had eight catches total the first two weeks of the season. He's also going against a weak Baltimore secondary.
Sit 'em: Ravens RB Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro
The Ravens backfield is clearly a running back-by-committee now, with Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce, and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro all splitting carries. Forsett has the most fantasy value, since he gets the majority of the carries out of the three and catches passes (had seven catches last week). Right now, Forsett's running very well (leads the league in yards per carry), but the other two are stuck behind him. Forsett is a decent play, but otherwise stay away from the Ravens backfield.
Pick 'em up: Ravens TE Owen Daniels (21.6%)
With Dennis Pitta on IR, the former Texan is a good tight end option for those in need of one. He's seen at least six targets in each of the last two games (he caught five passes for 70 yards last week) and he's facing a defense that allows 292 passing yards per game.
Why The Ravens Will Win:
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back after a poor showing against Indy. They get to face a team who's only win is on a last-minute touchdown pass against Pittsburgh, whom the Ravens beat handily. Tampa ranks near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.
Why The Buccaneers Will Win:
The Bucs have looked much better since getting cremated by Atlanta on Thursday Night Football, beating Pittsburgh and taking New Orleans to overtime. They have some talented wide receivers going against a poor pass defense, and Doug Martin has been healthy for two straight weeks, which is always a good thing.
Pick: Buccaneers 26, Ravens 24

Denver Broncos (3-1) @New York Jets (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Broncos QB Peyton Manning (And His Receivers) vs. Jets Pass Defense
We all know about Peyton and Denver's prolific offense. Manning is five touchdowns away from breaking Brett Favre's NFL record for career touchdown passes (508) and he's bound to do it in the next two games. He's also coming off a game in which he set a personal best for passing yards in a game with 479. The Jets pass defense hasn't been great, allowing the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL (12), but they are tied for the lead league in sacks (17).

Start 'em: Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders
Even with Wes Welker back in the fold, Sanders has still been Peyton Manning's favorite target, catching seven passes for 101 yards last week. He leads the team in catches and receiving yards and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three of his four games (He had 77 in the other game). He's also going against a weak and injury-ridden secondary.
Sit 'em: Jets WR Eric Decker
The Jets passing game is a mess, and that's partly because Decker hasn't been healthy. He has a hamstring injury that he missed last week's game with and is questionable for this week. He is the primary target for Geno Smith, but with his injury problems and Smith's passing problems, he's not a smart start.
Pick 'em up: Broncos K Brandon McManus (3.8%)
Now that Matt Prater is in Detroit, the job is all McManus's. He hasn't been spectacular thus far, but he gets to kick in thin air for a volatile offense, so he's worth a pick-up if you need a kicker.
Why The Broncos Will Win:
Peyton Manning, for one. And Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, and Sanders, and Welker. The Jets have one of the league's worst pass defenses and are struggling on offense as well. The Broncos are coming off a thumping of previously unbeaten Arizona. Denver is 5-0 in their last five meetings against the Jets.
Why The Jets Will Win:
The Broncos have bad memories of the last time they played in MetLife Stadium (the Super Bowl last year). They will be without starting running back Montee Ball and the Jets may have Eric Decker back. The Broncos are 0-1 on the road this season.
Pick: Broncos 35, Jets 21

Detroit Lions (3-2) @Minnesota Vikings (2-3)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: 

Start 'em: Lions WR Golden Tate
Detroit signed Tate in the offseason to have a legitimate number two threat to Calvin Johnson. While Johnson has dealt with triple-teams and nagging injuries, Tate has stepped up and filled the role. Minnesota doesn't have a great pass defense, and Tate has caught eight passes for 116 yards and seven passes for 134 yards and a touchdown the last two games respectively. He does not have a game of fewer than five catches and less than 50 yards so far this season.
Sit 'em: Vikings RB Matt Asiata
He'll get carries (15 last game and 20 the game before), but rookie backup Jerick McKinnon is gaining ground on him and the Lions defense is pretty good against the run (3rd in the NFL). McKinnon had 15 carries for 72 yards last week.
Pick 'em up: Lions K Matt Prater (6.8%)
Yes, this makes two kickers in a row. Kickers are people too! Now that Detroit has a good kicker to pair with their explosive offense, they can have more faith in the kicking game. Prater won't be what he was in Denver, but he's a good kicker who will get multiple opportunities.
Why The Lions Will Win: 
The Lions are better than their record suggests. They just had a kicker holding them back. The have a dangerous offense even without Calvin Johnson and they have one of the league's best defenses this year. The Vikings have a rookie quarterback coming back from injury.
Why The Vikings Will Win:
Last time the Vikings played the Lions (December 29 of last year), the Vikings won 14-13, and the Lions didn't have Calvin Johnson for that game. They probably won't have him for this game either. Teddy Bridgewater is undefeated as a starter (he's only started one game, a 41-28 win over Atlanta), and they may get linebacker Chad Greenway back this week.
Pick: Lions 27, Vikings 13

New England Patriots (3-2)@Buffalo Bills (3-2)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Bills QB Kyle Orton
This is not a joke. I'm dead serious. Kyle Orton played surprisingly well last week after replacing E.J. Manuel as starter. He went 30 for 43 with 308 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Pretty good for someone who missed all of offseason workouts while contemplating retirement. On the other side, rumors of Tom Brady's demise were greatly exaggerated. A week after getting pummeled by Kansas City, Brady put a hurting on Cincinnati last week, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns in a 43-17 win.
Start 'em: Bills RB Fred Jackson
Jackson has shown he's definitely the workhorse in the timeshare between him and C.J. Spiller, contributing in the running game and passing game. He has also run for over 100 yards the last three times he's played New England,.  
Sit 'em: Patriots RB Stevan Ridley
Ridley had a huge game last week, running for 113 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. But he's been a bit inconsistent, and this week he faces the league's top-ranked rush defense (71 yards per game).
Pick 'em up: Bills QB Kyle Orton (0.4%)
Orton is the starter from here forward, and he showed he can still play, and play well, last week. New England has a good pass defense, but looking ahead, you could do worse than Orton as a backup quarterback.
Pick: Patriots 32, Bills 20

Carolina Panthers (3-2)@Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)-1:00, CBS
In the interest of time, I will just do the picks for the rest of the games
Pick: Panthers 28, Bengals 21
A.J Green is out, and the Bengals are coming off a whooping from New England. Cam Newton has really improved his passing as he stays in the pocket more.

Green Bay Packers (3-2) @Miami Dolphins (2-2)-1:00, FOX
Pick: Packers 32, Dolphins 27
The Dolphins will have running back Knowshon Moreno back, and Ryan Tannehill looked good two weeks ago, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense is clicking right now.

San Diego Chargers (4-1) @Oakland Raiders (0-4)-4:05, CBS
Pick: Chargers 35, Raiders 19
Phillip Rivers is looking as good as ever, and the Chargers have looked like a potential Super Bowl team since Week 1. Oakland is in turmoil after a coach firing and a bye week.

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) @Seattle Seahawks (3-1)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Seahawks 37, Cowboys 35
If this were in Jerry World, I'd probably go with Dallas pulling the upset, as they have looked very good so far, especially the offense. But this one's in Seattle, and with the 12th Man behind them, the Seahawks should win.

Washington Redskins (1-4) @Arizona Cardinals (3-1)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Cardinals 28, Redskins 19
With Carson Palmer now expected to play, the Cardinals have a much better chance to beat Washington, who has struggled.

Chicago Bears (2-3) @Atlanta Falcons (2-3)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Falcons 34, Bears 28
Both teams look to bounce back in Devin Hester's return to Chicago. Bold Prediction: Hester scores a return touchdown.

New York Giants (3-2) @Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)-8:30, NBC
Pick: Eagles 31, Giants 28
The Eagles are going all-black for the game against the rival Giants, who have played well recently. However, I think Philly will get back on track.

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) @St. Louis Rams (1-3)-8:30, ESPN
Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 23
Rams quarterback Austin Davis has led St. Louis back from large deficits, but was also the one who dug those holes and still has only won once. San Francisco is the far superior team, but Davis and the feisty Rams will make it close.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

NFL Week 4 Review

Green Bay Packers (1-2) @ Chicago Bears (2-1)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Bears TE Martellus Bennett vs. Packers Defense
Winner: Bennett (9 catches, 134 yards)
Bennett had a big day, and it could have included a touchdown, but he was stopped just short of the endzone as time expired in the first half and there wasn't enough video evidence to overturn it.
Bold Prediction: Matt Forte will rush for over 90 yards and a touchdown.
Result: Correct. Although Jay Cutler struggled, Forte ran for 122 yards on 23 carries.
Start 'em: Bears QB Jay Cutler
Stats: 22-34, 256 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 3 carries, 29 yards
Sit 'em: Bears TE Martellus Bennett
Stats: 9 catches, 134 yards
Pick 'em up: Packers TE Anthony Quarless (2.1%)
Stats: -
Top Scorer: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (22-28, 302 yards, 4 TD)
Pick: Bears 31, Packers 27
Result: Packers 38, Bears 17
Player of the Game: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (22-28, 302 yards, 4 TD)
After telling Packers fans to R-E-L-A-X earlier this week, Rodgers had a big day against the rival Bears.

Buffalo Bills (2-1) @ Houston Texans (2-1)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Bills WR Sammy Watkins
Winner: Hopkins (5 catches, 64 yards, TD)
Both Clemson products found the endzone (Watkins had four catches for 30 yards and a touchdown), but Hopkins won the matchup and the game.
Bold Prediction: C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson will each run for at least 80 yards.
Result: Incorrect. Spiller had 15 carries for 60 yards; Jackson had seven carries for 33 yards.
Start 'em: Bills RB C.J. Spiller
Stats: 15 carries, 60 yards; 3 catches, 24 yards
Sit 'em: Texans RB Arian Foster
Stats: 8 carries, 6 yards; 7 catches, 55 yards
Pick 'em up: Bills K Dan Carpenter (16.3%)
Stats: 1-1 FG (31 yards), 2-2 XP
Top Scorer: Texans K Randy Bullock (3-3 FG (41, 55, 50 yards), 2-2 XP
Pick: Texans 24, Bills 13
Result: Texans 23, Bills 17
Player of the Game: Texans DE J.J. Watt (5 tackles, 1 pass defense, 9 QB hits, INT, TD)
Watt showed why he's one of the best (or the best) players in the NFL by being his usual self, plus returning a poorly thrown pass 80 yards for a touchdown

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Titans TE Delanie Walker vs. Colts Defense
Winner: Walker (5 catches, 84 yards, TD)
Walker was the only player who did much against the Colts with journeyman Charlie Whitehurst playing. Whitehurst played okay, albeit not great.
Bold Prediction: Shonn Greene will run for at least 80 yards and a touchdown.
Result: Incorrect. The Titans did very little in the run game (quarterback Charlie Whitehurst was their leading rusher). Greene had 10 yards on three carries.
Start 'em: Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Stats: 9 carries, 32 yards; 2 catches, 20 yards, TD 
Sit 'em: Titans WR Kendall Wright
Stats: 5 catches, 55 yards
Pick 'em up: Colts D/ST (11.1%)
Stats: 17 PA, 2 INT, FR
Top Scorer: Colts QB Andrew Luck (29-41, 393 yards, 4 TD, INT)
Pick: Colts 27, Titans 17
Result: Colts 41, Titans 17
Player of the Game: Colts QB Andrew Luck (29-41, 393 yards, 4 TD, INT)
Luck continued to show he's one of the best (or the best) quarterbacks in the NFL, having another big day against an inferior AFC South opponent.

Carolina Panthers (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Ravens WR Steve Smith Sr. vs. His Old Team
Winner: Smith Sr. (7 catches, 139 yards, 2 TD)
Smith Sr. tore up the Panthers, including scoring on a 61-yard catch-and-run that was tipped by tight end Owen Daniels.
Bold Prediction: Steve Smith Sr. and Kelvin Benjamin will each score at least one touchdown and gain at least 90 yards.
Result: Incorrect. Both receivers played well, especially Smith Sr. But Benjamin was 14 yards short of 90.
Start 'em: Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin
Stats: 5 catches, 76 yards, TD
Sit 'em: Ravens RB Bernard Pierce
Stats: -
Pick 'em up: Ravens TE Owen Daniels (7.9%)
Stats: 4 catches, 43 yards
Top Scorer: Ravens QB Joe Flacco (22-31, 327 yards, 3 TD) and Ravens WR Steve Smith Sr. (7 catches, 139 yards, 2 TD)
Pick: Panthers 17, Ravens 13
Result: Falcons 38, Panthers 10
Player of the Game: Falcons WR Steve Smith Sr. (7 catches, 139 yards, TD)
Smith said there would be "blood and guts" when he played his former team. There weren't any literal blood and guts, but Smith metaphorically ripped the guts out of the Carolina defense.

Detroit Lions (2-1) @ New York Jets (1-2)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Lions WR Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate vs. Jets Secondary
Winner: Tate (8 catches, 116 yards)  
While Megatron didn't do much due to injury, Tate picked up the slack.                  
Bold Prediction: Chris Ivory will gain over 100 total yards.
Result: Incorrect. Technically I was wrong, because Ivory had exactly 100 total yards and I said he would gain over 100 yards. He had 17 carries for 84 yards and two catches for 16 yards.
Start 'em: Lions QB Matthew Stafford
Stats: 24-34, 293 yards, 2 TD
Sit 'em: Lions RB Joique Bell
Stats: 8 carries, 32 yards; 2 catches, 7 yards
Pick 'em up: Lions D/ST (38.1%)
Stats: 17 points allowed, INT, FR
Top Scorer: Lions QB Matthew Stafford (24-34, 293, TD; Rush TD)
Pick: Lions 27, Jets 19
Result: Lions 24, Jets 17
Player of the Game: Lions WR Golden Tate (8 catches 116)
Tate stepped up with Calvin Johnson nursing an injury and helped the Lions outpace the Jets.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Steelers Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
Winner: Buccaneers Defense (5 sacks, 8 TFL, FR)
The Tampa defense got to Ben Roethlisberger early and often. Ben got back on track later, but the Bucs still pulled out the win thanks in part to a key three-and-out by Pittsburgh with under two minutes left.
Bold Prediction: Mike Glennon will pass for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Result: Correct. Glennon solidified his spot as the starting quarterback by  leading the Bucs to a last-minute win over Pittsburgh. He was 21 of 42 for 302 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick.
Start 'em: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
Stats: 29-40, 314 yards, 3 TD
Sit 'em: Buccaneers RB Doug Martin
Stats: 14 carries, 40 yards, TD; 2 catches, 16 yards
Pick 'em up: Steelers K Shaun Suisham (33.3%)
Stats: 1-2 FG (25 yards), 3-3 XP
Top Scorer: Steelers WR Antonio Brown (7 catches, 131 yards, 2 TD; 1-1, 17 yards passing)
Pick: Steelers 38, Buccaneers 21
Result: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24
Player of the Game: Buccaneers WR Louis Murphy (6 catches, 99 yards)
Murphy, who was signed by the Bucs Tuesday, came up big, especially on the game-winning drive, when he had a catch-and-run of 41 yards to set up a 5-yards touchdown reception by Vincent Jackson.

Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-3)-1:00, CBS (Played at Wembley Stadium in London, England)
Matchup To Watch: Dolphins Offense vs. Raiders Offense
Winner: Dolphins Defense (2 sacks, 3 TFL, 3 INT, FR, TD)
After the Raiders' first drive of the game, in which Derek Carr marched down the field and scored, Miami shut Oakland down. Carr got hurt and was replaced by Matt McGloin, who proceeded to give up a 50-yard fumble return for a touchdown on a high snap.
Bold Prediction: Caleb Sturgis and Sebastion Janikowski will each kick at least three field goals.
Result: Incorrect. Only one field goal was kicked in this game, by Miami kicker Caled Sturgis (a 41-yarder). Oakland was down big early, so they couldn't settle for field goals and couldn't even get in field goal range.
Start 'em: Dolphins RB Lamar Miller
Stats: 12 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD; 2 catches, 3 yards
Sit 'em: Raiders RB Maurice Jones-Drew
Stats: 2 carries, 1 yard; 2 catches, 2 yards
Pick 'em up: Dolphins D/ST (17.1%)
Stats: 3 INT, FR, TD
Top Scorer: Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill (23-31, 278 yards, 2 TD, INT; 5 carries, 35 yards)
Pick: Raiders 22, Dolphins 20
Result: Dolphins 38, Raiders 14
Player of the Game: Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill (23-31, 278 yards, 2 TD, INT)
Tannehill responded to his coach not committing to him as the starter, looking very crisp and efficient.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ San Diego Chargers (2-1)-4:05, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Jaguars QB Blake Bortles vs. Chargers Defense
Winner: Chargers Defense (Bortles: 29-37, 253 yards, TD, 2 INT; 5 carries, 24 yards)
Bortles didn't play badly given the talent around him, and showed escapability and poise Chad Henne never showed. But the Chargers still only allowed 14 points and forced Bortles into some mistakes.
Bold Prediction: Bortles will throw for at least 300 yards.
Result: Incorrect. Again, Bortles didn't play horribly, but he only threw for 253 yards.
Start 'em: Chargers RB Donald Brown
Stats: 10 carries, 19 yards; 4 catches, 35 yards
Sit 'em: Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart
Stats: 10 carries, 32 yards, TD; 1 catch, 8 yards
Pick 'em up: Jaguars WR Allen Robinson (1.7%)
Stats: 5 catches, 38 yards
Top Scorer: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers (29-39, 377 yards, 3 TD)
Pick: Chargers 48, Jaguars 27
Result: Chargers 33, Jaguars 14
Player of the Game: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers (29-39, 377 yards, 3 TD)
Rivers continued his stellar play, outplaying the rookie in a thumping of Jacksonville.

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2)-4:25, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater vs. Falcons Defense
Winner: Bridgewater (19-30, 317 yards; 5 carries, 27 yards, TD)
Bridgewater was great in his first start, lighting up the Falcons defense for 317 yards.
Bold Prediction: Bridgewater will throw at least two touchdown passes.
Result: Incorrect. Bridgewater had a great debut, leading the Vikings to the win, but on three occasions he drove the team all the way down the field and running back Matt Asiata punched it in for the touchdown.
Start 'em: Vikings RB Matt Asiata 
Stats: 20 carries, 78 yards, 3 TD; 3 catches, 22 yards
Sit 'em: Falcons RB Steven Jackson
Stats: 13 carries, 49 yards; 2 catches, 13 yards
Pick 'em up: Falcons K Matt Bryant (43.5%)
Stats: 4-4 XP
Top Scorer: Vikings RB Matt Asiata (20 carries, 78 yards, 3 TD; 3 catches. 22 yards)
Pick: Falcons 34, Vikings 27
Result: Vikings 41, Falcons 28
Player of the Game: Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater (19-30, 317 yards; 5 carries, 27 yards, TD)
The rookie showed great poise and ability in his debut, leading the Vikings to a big win.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)-4:25, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles vs. 49ers Front Seven
Winner: 49ers Front Seven (McCoy: 10 carries, 17 yards; Sproles: 1 carry, 4 yards)
Yet again, "Shady" McCoy and the Eagles couldn't get anything going in the run game, partly due to the 49ers defense blowing through the Eagles' hobbled offensive line.
Bold Prediction: Colin Kaepernick will throw for over 300 yards and a touchdown.
Result: Incorrect. The Niners pounded the Eagles on the ground, so Kaepernick just had 218 yards passing and a touchdown.
Start 'em: 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick
Stats: 17-30, 218 yards, 2 TD, INT; 7 carries, 58 yards
Sit 'em: 49ers D/ST
Stats: 21 PA, 2 INT, 2 FR
Pick 'em up: Eagles WR Jordan Matthews (13.6%)
Stats: 4 catches, 28 yards
Top Scorer: Eagles D/ST (26 PA, INT, 3 TD)
Pick: Eagles 35, 49ers 32
Result: 49ers 26, Eagles 21
Player of the Game: 49ers RB Frank Gore (24 carries, 119 yards; 1 catch, 55 yards, TD)
Gore ran all over the Eagles and had a big touchdown catch-and-run in the big win.

New Orleans Saints (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)-8:30, NBC
Matchup To Watch: Cowboys Offense vs. Saints Offense
Winner: Cowboys Offense (445 total yards, 38 points)
The Cowboys offense continued to roll Sunday night, with big contributions from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray in the rout.
Bold Prediction: Each team will have at least 450 yards of total offense.
Result: Incorrect. Both teams racked up the yards (438 by the Saints, 445 by the Cowboys), but neither reached the 450 yard mark.
Star 'em: Saints WR Brandin Cooks
Stats: 5 catches, 31 yards
Sit 'em: Cowboys TE Jason Witten
Stats: 5 catches, 61 yards
Pick 'em up: Saints WR Brandin Cooks (69.3)
Stats: 5 catches, 31 yards
Top Scorer: Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (24 carries, 149 yards, 2 TD; 1 catch, 6 yards)
Pick: Cowboys 38, Saints 35
Result: Cowboys 38, Saints 17
Player of the Game: Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (24 carries, 149 yards, 2 TD)
Murray, the NFL's leading rusher, continued his hot start with 149 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans.

New England Patriots (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)-Mon. 8:30, ESPN
Matchup To Watch: Chiefs Running Backs vs. Patriots Defense
Winner: Chiefs Running Backs (Jamaal Charles: 18 carries, 92 yards, TD; Knile Davis: 16 carries, 107 yards)
In his return from injury, Jamaal Charles gashed the Patriots on the ground and through the air. Backup Knile Davis even had over 100 yards.
Bold Prediction: Tom Brady will throw for 200 yards or less.
Stats: Correct. Brady struggled mightily, throwing for just 159 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and being replaced by rookie backup Jimmy Garoppolo late in the blowout loss.
Start 'em: Patriots WR Julian Edelman
Stats: 4 catches, 23 yards
Sit 'em: Patriots RB Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen
Stats: Ridley: 5 carries, 28 yards
          Vereen: 8 carries, 26 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards
Top Scorer: Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (18 carries, 92 yards, TD; 3 catches, 16 yards, 2 TD)
Pick 'em up: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (34%)
Stats: 8 catches, 93 yards, TD
Pick: Chiefs 24, Patriots 19
Result: Chiefs 41, Patriots 14
Player of the Game: Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (18 carries, 92 yards, TD; 3 catches, 2 TD)
Charles dominated this game and this post.

Bold Predictions Record: 3-10
Week 2 Record: 6-7
Season Bold Predictions Record: 10-33
Season Record: 23-20

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Who's The Greatest?

With Derek Jeter playing his last game, this is just a quick little discussion on who the greatest baseball player ever is and how to determine it.

 As Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter ends his illustrious career, people are calling him one of the best players of all time. Which poses the question: Who is the greatest baseball player of all time? 
 That's a tough question to answer, and one that is probably a matter of opinion more than anything. This is because baseball has so many different positions and statistics. There are so many types of baseball players. Should it be a prodigious power hitter who strikes out a lot? A high-contact hitter who hits over .300 but has little to no power? An amazing defender who isn't an outstanding hitter? Or a speed demon who doesn't do much beyond run? Or even a pitcher? 
 It should probably be an all-around great player. Looking at it statistically, the best stat to measure all-around greatness is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If you're unfamiliar with WAR, it attempts to measure a players contributions to the team in all aspects of the game. Different people calculate WAR in different ways. According to FanGraphs, Babe Ruth is the all-time leader in WAR, but he was a minus defender and base runner. Baseball Reference also has Babe Ruth as the all-time WAR leader, but the gap is closer between him and number two Barry Bonds. 
 Bonds brings another question. Should we count players whose careers were tainted by PED use? Some people say they were still amazing players, but others say they should always have an asterisk next to their names. 
 If we are looking for someone who had a special blend of power, speed, and defense, that brings up names like Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jackie Robinson. They may not have been the absolute best at one category, but they were among the best in multiple areas. 
 Maybe you're a pitcher's guy. Pitcher's don't play every single day, but they do contribute greatly to their team's success. In fact, back in the day of Cy Young (who has a trophy named after him), pitchers did pitch almost every day. Statistically speaking, however, pitchers don't have WARs as high as position players.
 Many people will want to bring up championships, which is what brings Jeter into the conversation. But baseball is a team sport, and championships factor in how good the other players on the team are, how good the manager and coaches are, and how lucky they get. If there is a career utility player who just happens to play on many great teams, he may have tons of championship rings. That doesn't make him better than a multiple MVP winner who never had much talent around him. However, the World Series is the ultimate goal, and players who contribute to a championship team can say they were the best that particular season.
 It's possible that the greatest baseball player of all-time never played in Major League Baseball. The Negro League had many great players, and many of them never got to play in the Majors. Satchel Page didn't get to pitch in a Major League game until he was in his 50's. The legendary Josh Gibson, who was said to be the greatest power hitter of all time by those who saw him, never got to play in the Majors. There are also great Japanese players and players from other countries who never come to America.
 Maybe the greatest player of all time hasn't even reached the peak of his career. Mike Trout has been the best player in the Majors since he was called up, and if he continues his current pace, he will probably be the best player of all time. But he could plateau or get injured, or something else unforeseen could happen.
 In the end, It's really a matter of opinion who the greatest player of all time is. Maybe you saw somebody play in person and thought he was the greatest player you've ever seen.
 Maybe you just want to go by statistics, because numbers never lie. Maybe you agree that it should be an all-around player and the number if championships won doesn't matter that much. I don't care if you disagree with me.If you want to know my opinion, though, I think it's Jackie Robinson. He was great on and off the field, having the courage to break baseball's color barrier and the talent and blend of offense, speed, and defense to win many awards and make the Brooklyn Dodgers a perennial contender. But that doesn't mean my opinion won't change. My favorite baseball player ever is either Robinson or Ken Griffey Jr., and if Junior wouldn't have had injury problems late in his career, he might've been my pick for greatest of all time.
 So as the great Derek Jeter finishes his career and people are arguing over why he is or why he isn't one of the greatest player of all time, remember that everybody has different way of determining who the best baseball player ever is. That's how great of a sport baseball is. There is no clear-cut greatest.